Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGID 312256
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CUMULUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR HAS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WILL BE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVING IT TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THAT LATE
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BY MID-LATE WEEK AS A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TROUGHS ON THE
COASTS. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD THIS A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT AGAIN...MOST LONG TERM SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES
ARRIVE AT THIS SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING...WE SEEM TO
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
HELPING TO DAMPEN AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...WHICH
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TOWARD MID
TO LATE WEEK.

WE START OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH CHANCES MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 POP FOR NOW. BESIDES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT PRETTY MUCH ANY GIVEN TIME...AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACCOMPANIED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND NOT MUCH OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A BOUNDARY HANGING IN AND AROUND
THE AREA. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOW POPS FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...KEEPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT FROM MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT NO GUARANTEE. SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS BUT THE LINE
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH. KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN KEAR. AN OUTFLOW HAS TURNED WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT KGRI
AND WILL TURN IN KEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD END A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 312256
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CUMULUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR HAS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WILL BE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVING IT TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THAT LATE
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BY MID-LATE WEEK AS A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TROUGHS ON THE
COASTS. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD THIS A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT AGAIN...MOST LONG TERM SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES
ARRIVE AT THIS SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING...WE SEEM TO
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
HELPING TO DAMPEN AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...WHICH
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TOWARD MID
TO LATE WEEK.

WE START OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH CHANCES MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 POP FOR NOW. BESIDES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT PRETTY MUCH ANY GIVEN TIME...AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACCOMPANIED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND NOT MUCH OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A BOUNDARY HANGING IN AND AROUND
THE AREA. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOW POPS FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...KEEPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT FROM MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT NO GUARANTEE. SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS BUT THE LINE
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH. KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN KEAR. AN OUTFLOW HAS TURNED WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT KGRI
AND WILL TURN IN KEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD END A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 311957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CUMULUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR HAS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WILL BE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVING IT TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THAT LATE
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BY MID-LATE WEEK AS A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TROUGHS ON THE
COASTS. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD THIS A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT AGAIN...MOST LONG TERM SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES
ARRIVE AT THIS SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING...WE SEEM TO
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
HELPING TO DAMPEN AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...WHICH
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TOWARD MID
TO LATE WEEK.

WE START OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH CHANCES MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 POP FOR NOW. BESIDES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT PRETTY MUCH ANY GIVEN TIME...AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACCOMPANIED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND NOT MUCH OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A BOUNDARY HANGING IN AND AROUND
THE AREA. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOW POPS FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...KEEPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT FROM MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT NO GUARANTEE. SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 311957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CUMULUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR HAS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WILL BE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVING IT TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THAT LATE
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BY MID-LATE WEEK AS A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TROUGHS ON THE
COASTS. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD THIS A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT AGAIN...MOST LONG TERM SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES
ARRIVE AT THIS SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING...WE SEEM TO
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
HELPING TO DAMPEN AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...WHICH
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TOWARD MID
TO LATE WEEK.

WE START OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH CHANCES MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 POP FOR NOW. BESIDES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT PRETTY MUCH ANY GIVEN TIME...AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACCOMPANIED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND NOT MUCH OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A BOUNDARY HANGING IN AND AROUND
THE AREA. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOW POPS FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...KEEPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT FROM MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT NO GUARANTEE. SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 311957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CUMULUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR HAS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WILL BE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVING IT TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THAT LATE
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BY MID-LATE WEEK AS A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TROUGHS ON THE
COASTS. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD THIS A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT AGAIN...MOST LONG TERM SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES
ARRIVE AT THIS SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING...WE SEEM TO
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
HELPING TO DAMPEN AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...WHICH
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TOWARD MID
TO LATE WEEK.

WE START OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH CHANCES MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 POP FOR NOW. BESIDES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT PRETTY MUCH ANY GIVEN TIME...AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACCOMPANIED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND NOT MUCH OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A BOUNDARY HANGING IN AND AROUND
THE AREA. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOW POPS FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...KEEPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT FROM MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT NO GUARANTEE. SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 311957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CUMULUS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RADAR HAS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WILL BE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
DRIVING IT TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SPREAD THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SUN
GOES DOWN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH.

LATER TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THAT LATE
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT BY MID-LATE WEEK AS A
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND TROUGHS ON THE
COASTS. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD THIS A BIT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT AGAIN...MOST LONG TERM SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES
ARRIVE AT THIS SCENARIO. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING...WE SEEM TO
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK
HELPING TO DAMPEN AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...WHICH
COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE OUR DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TOWARD MID
TO LATE WEEK.

WE START OUT SATURDAY EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH CHANCES MUCH HIGHER THAN 40 POP FOR NOW. BESIDES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE A GENERAL 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AT PRETTY MUCH ANY GIVEN TIME...AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME PATTERN OF RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR ACCOMPANIED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND NOT MUCH OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A BOUNDARY HANGING IN AND AROUND
THE AREA. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH LOW POPS FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...KEEPING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT DRY WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT FROM MODELS/ENSEMBLES...BUT NO GUARANTEE. SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 311722
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOCAL OVER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
HELPED STEER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INCREASE MOISTURE WILL HELP INSTABILITY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL
ARE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR
VALUES...JUSTIFIES THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE INHIBITION FOR
STORM FORMATION...THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANY ACTIVITY BEING
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT
IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR LATER TODAY. IN GENERAL...MODEL DATA
IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS DO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. SO WITH CONSENSUS THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL
FORM...BUMPED UP PROBABILITIES BY ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT FOR MOST
AREAS LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SEASONAL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL...NO "MAJOR" CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD VERSUS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS ALL IN ALL IT`S A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO PREVAIL AT NEAR-TO-
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...AND VARIOUS HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT. BY SUMMER
STANDARDS THOUGH...THERE IS PROBABLY A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN
USUAL IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME NEXT WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY (SEE BELOW FOR MORE).

WILL START BY TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF BOTH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCLUDING
SATURDAY: OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS (TWELVE HOUR
BLOCKS)...ONLY 2 CONTINUE TO CARRY A COMPLETELY "DRY" FORECAST
CWA-WIDE...THOSE BEING SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURPRISINGLY
THOUGH...EVEN THIS TIME FRAME IS NO "GUARANTEE" TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY VOID OF CONVECTION AS A FEW MODELS PAINT
LIMITED/ISOLATED POTENTIAL WITHIN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT NOTHING
YET WORTHY OF ADVERTISING 15+ PERCENT MENTIONABLE CHANCES (POPS)
YET. OF THE OTHER 9 PERIODS THAT DO ADVERTISE PRECIP CHANCES
WITHIN AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO TYPICAL ABOVE-
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN A PREVALENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SUMMER
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM TAKING TO THE BANK...AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THE OVERALL "BEST" WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIALLY
(KEY WORD POTENTIALLY) MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA MIGHT BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST CWA)...THEN THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME AS A POTENTIALLY SEMI-ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THIS IS REALLY FAR OUT THERE TO GET TOO
EXCITED ABOUT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN AT LEAST A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES...AS TYPICALLY DECENT SUMMER INSTABILITY VALUES
COMBINE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT ABOVE-AVERAGE REGIME OF
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES (THANKS TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT). OF
COURSE...GIVEN THAT FORCING ALOFT IS GENERALLY FAIRLY WEAK...THE
SPECIFICS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MOST DAYS/NIGHTS IS STILL
VERY MUCH OUT OF REACH...AND AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK IN KEEPING THE MONDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN
"PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" TERRITORY. HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS LOOKING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
INTRIGUING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AS THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK GOES WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA...BUT WHILE KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA JUST WEST OF
THE LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA CENTERED OVER IA. WHILE MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE AND SPECIFIC LOCATION OF
CONVECTION...THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE HERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER-
THAN-AVERAGE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR FOR MID-SUMMER...WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR LOOKING TO AVERAGE SOLIDLY INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE. WHILE
AREAS SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CWA MAY BE MORE FAVORED TO
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF A SEVERE THREAT...VARIOUS MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-ARW ALL PAINT "SOME" CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOULD
SEVERE CONVECTION IN FACT MATERIALIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A FEW RATHER
INTENSE...FAIRLY DISCRETE SOUTHEAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS...OR
POSSIBLY A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS. EITHER WAY...A DECENT
HAIL/WIND THREAT COULD EXIST...AND THIS TIME FRAME BEARS WATCHING
DESPITE CURRENTLY "ONLY" BEING CARRYING AN SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES: PER THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...THIS IS OVERALL A
NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA REACHING LOW-MID 90S
TERRITORY FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE A "SLIGHT" COOL-DOWN MORE
SO INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S FROM TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THESE LATTER 3 DAYS LATELY...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE
VERY LATEST 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH OF A COOL-DOWN AT ALL...AND IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD...DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF MID-LATE WEEK HIGHS START TO
INCREASE IN LATER FORECASTS. OF COURSE...A FEW DAYS MAY BE PRONE
TO COOLING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS...BUT
THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE IN ADVANCE. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO
DAYS APPEAR TO CARRY A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ DEGREES. NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES TEND TO CARRY A BIT HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND MOST NIGHTS LOOK TO
FEATURE TYPICAL VALUES IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 RANGE...CERTAINLY
NOTHING THAT RESEMBLES THE MORE FALL-LIKE READINGS ON A FEW RECENT
MORNINGS.

FINISHING UP WITH A FAIRLY QUICK LOOK AT THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN
EXPECTATIONS AND VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES IN 1-2 DAY CHUNKS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: SEE THE MAIN PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER
PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE INGREDIENTS THAT "MIGHT"
COME TOGETHER TO BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY
STRONG NORTHWEST-FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD AS THE REGION IN THE
INTERFACE OF STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE MAIN CORE OF STRONGER FLOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS AND LIKELY TIED TO ONLY A FAIRLY WEAK...LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL BUT SEEMS TO BE GAINING MODEL SUPPORT. HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES AND PRIMARY POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
ARRIVES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE SOME 30 POPS HERE.
MOST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RESPONSIBLE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...SO
MAINTAINED A PRECIP- FREE FORECAST FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT
THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES...DAYTIME BREEZES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10
MPH FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THIS 24-HOUR BLOCK REMAINS VOID OF ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LARGELY
LACKS ANY DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCES TO KICK THINGS OFF. NUDGED UP
HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 1 DEGREE WITH THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE LOW-MID 90S
RANGE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS 48-HOUR TIME FRAME FEATURES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A BROAD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH VARYING IN THE
DETAILS OF COURSE...ARE AT LEAST SHOWING HALFWAY DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME CONTAINS SMALL POPS IN SOME
AREAS...THE OVERALL HIGHEST COVERAGE OF 30 POPS IS FOCUSED
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE
TEMPERATURE-SPECIFIC PARAGRAPH...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HERE...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ARGUE FOR WARMER RATHER THAN COOLER.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE LOCAL REGION LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE
VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF AN EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...PUTTING THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSUMING THAT WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES DO NOT POSE CAPPING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 311722
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOCAL OVER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
HELPED STEER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INCREASE MOISTURE WILL HELP INSTABILITY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL
ARE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR
VALUES...JUSTIFIES THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE INHIBITION FOR
STORM FORMATION...THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANY ACTIVITY BEING
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT
IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR LATER TODAY. IN GENERAL...MODEL DATA
IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS DO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. SO WITH CONSENSUS THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL
FORM...BUMPED UP PROBABILITIES BY ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT FOR MOST
AREAS LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SEASONAL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL...NO "MAJOR" CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD VERSUS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS ALL IN ALL IT`S A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO PREVAIL AT NEAR-TO-
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...AND VARIOUS HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT. BY SUMMER
STANDARDS THOUGH...THERE IS PROBABLY A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN
USUAL IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME NEXT WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY (SEE BELOW FOR MORE).

WILL START BY TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF BOTH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCLUDING
SATURDAY: OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS (TWELVE HOUR
BLOCKS)...ONLY 2 CONTINUE TO CARRY A COMPLETELY "DRY" FORECAST
CWA-WIDE...THOSE BEING SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURPRISINGLY
THOUGH...EVEN THIS TIME FRAME IS NO "GUARANTEE" TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY VOID OF CONVECTION AS A FEW MODELS PAINT
LIMITED/ISOLATED POTENTIAL WITHIN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT NOTHING
YET WORTHY OF ADVERTISING 15+ PERCENT MENTIONABLE CHANCES (POPS)
YET. OF THE OTHER 9 PERIODS THAT DO ADVERTISE PRECIP CHANCES
WITHIN AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO TYPICAL ABOVE-
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN A PREVALENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SUMMER
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM TAKING TO THE BANK...AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THE OVERALL "BEST" WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIALLY
(KEY WORD POTENTIALLY) MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA MIGHT BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST CWA)...THEN THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME AS A POTENTIALLY SEMI-ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THIS IS REALLY FAR OUT THERE TO GET TOO
EXCITED ABOUT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN AT LEAST A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES...AS TYPICALLY DECENT SUMMER INSTABILITY VALUES
COMBINE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT ABOVE-AVERAGE REGIME OF
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES (THANKS TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT). OF
COURSE...GIVEN THAT FORCING ALOFT IS GENERALLY FAIRLY WEAK...THE
SPECIFICS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MOST DAYS/NIGHTS IS STILL
VERY MUCH OUT OF REACH...AND AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK IN KEEPING THE MONDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN
"PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" TERRITORY. HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS LOOKING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
INTRIGUING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AS THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK GOES WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA...BUT WHILE KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA JUST WEST OF
THE LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA CENTERED OVER IA. WHILE MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE AND SPECIFIC LOCATION OF
CONVECTION...THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE HERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER-
THAN-AVERAGE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR FOR MID-SUMMER...WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR LOOKING TO AVERAGE SOLIDLY INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE. WHILE
AREAS SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CWA MAY BE MORE FAVORED TO
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF A SEVERE THREAT...VARIOUS MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-ARW ALL PAINT "SOME" CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOULD
SEVERE CONVECTION IN FACT MATERIALIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A FEW RATHER
INTENSE...FAIRLY DISCRETE SOUTHEAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS...OR
POSSIBLY A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS. EITHER WAY...A DECENT
HAIL/WIND THREAT COULD EXIST...AND THIS TIME FRAME BEARS WATCHING
DESPITE CURRENTLY "ONLY" BEING CARRYING AN SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES: PER THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...THIS IS OVERALL A
NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA REACHING LOW-MID 90S
TERRITORY FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE A "SLIGHT" COOL-DOWN MORE
SO INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S FROM TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THESE LATTER 3 DAYS LATELY...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE
VERY LATEST 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH OF A COOL-DOWN AT ALL...AND IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD...DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF MID-LATE WEEK HIGHS START TO
INCREASE IN LATER FORECASTS. OF COURSE...A FEW DAYS MAY BE PRONE
TO COOLING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS...BUT
THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE IN ADVANCE. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO
DAYS APPEAR TO CARRY A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ DEGREES. NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES TEND TO CARRY A BIT HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND MOST NIGHTS LOOK TO
FEATURE TYPICAL VALUES IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 RANGE...CERTAINLY
NOTHING THAT RESEMBLES THE MORE FALL-LIKE READINGS ON A FEW RECENT
MORNINGS.

FINISHING UP WITH A FAIRLY QUICK LOOK AT THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN
EXPECTATIONS AND VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES IN 1-2 DAY CHUNKS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: SEE THE MAIN PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER
PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE INGREDIENTS THAT "MIGHT"
COME TOGETHER TO BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY
STRONG NORTHWEST-FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD AS THE REGION IN THE
INTERFACE OF STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE MAIN CORE OF STRONGER FLOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS AND LIKELY TIED TO ONLY A FAIRLY WEAK...LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL BUT SEEMS TO BE GAINING MODEL SUPPORT. HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES AND PRIMARY POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
ARRIVES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE SOME 30 POPS HERE.
MOST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RESPONSIBLE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...SO
MAINTAINED A PRECIP- FREE FORECAST FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT
THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES...DAYTIME BREEZES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10
MPH FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THIS 24-HOUR BLOCK REMAINS VOID OF ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LARGELY
LACKS ANY DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCES TO KICK THINGS OFF. NUDGED UP
HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 1 DEGREE WITH THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE LOW-MID 90S
RANGE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS 48-HOUR TIME FRAME FEATURES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A BROAD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH VARYING IN THE
DETAILS OF COURSE...ARE AT LEAST SHOWING HALFWAY DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME CONTAINS SMALL POPS IN SOME
AREAS...THE OVERALL HIGHEST COVERAGE OF 30 POPS IS FOCUSED
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE
TEMPERATURE-SPECIFIC PARAGRAPH...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HERE...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ARGUE FOR WARMER RATHER THAN COOLER.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE LOCAL REGION LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE
VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF AN EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...PUTTING THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSUMING THAT WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES DO NOT POSE CAPPING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS STILL NORTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 311043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOCAL OVER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
HELPED STEER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INCREASE MOISTURE WILL HELP INSTABILITY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL
ARE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR
VALUES...JUSTIFIES THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE INHIBITION FOR
STORM FORMATION...THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANY ACTIVITY BEING
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT
IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR LATER TODAY. IN GENERAL...MODEL DATA
IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS DO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. SO WITH CONSENSUS THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL
FORM...BUMPED UP PROBABILITIES BY ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT FOR MOST
AREAS LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SEASONAL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL...NO "MAJOR" CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD VERSUS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS ALL IN ALL IT`S A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO PREVAIL AT NEAR-TO-
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...AND VARIOUS HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT. BY SUMMER
STANDARDS THOUGH...THERE IS PROBABLY A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN
USUAL IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME NEXT WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY (SEE BELOW FOR MORE).

WILL START BY TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF BOTH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCLUDING
SATURDAY: OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS (TWELVE HOUR
BLOCKS)...ONLY 2 CONTINUE TO CARRY A COMPLETELY "DRY" FORECAST
CWA-WIDE...THOSE BEING SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURPRISINGLY
THOUGH...EVEN THIS TIME FRAME IS NO "GUARANTEE" TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY VOID OF CONVECTION AS A FEW MODELS PAINT
LIMITED/ISOLATED POTENTIAL WITHIN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT NOTHING
YET WORTHY OF ADVERTISING 15+ PERCENT MENTIONABLE CHANCES (POPS)
YET. OF THE OTHER 9 PERIODS THAT DO ADVERTISE PRECIP CHANCES
WITHIN AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO TYPICAL ABOVE-
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN A PREVALENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SUMMER
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM TAKING TO THE BANK...AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THE OVERALL "BEST" WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIALLY
(KEY WORD POTENTIALLY) MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA MIGHT BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST CWA)...THEN THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME AS A POTENTIALLY SEMI-ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THIS IS REALLY FAR OUT THERE TO GET TOO
EXCITED ABOUT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN AT LEAST A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES...AS TYPICALLY DECENT SUMMER INSTABILITY VALUES
COMBINE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT ABOVE-AVERAGE REGIME OF
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES (THANKS TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT). OF
COURSE...GIVEN THAT FORCING ALOFT IS GENERALLY FAIRLY WEAK...THE
SPECIFICS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MOST DAYS/NIGHTS IS STILL
VERY MUCH OUT OF REACH...AND AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK IN KEEPING THE MONDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN
"PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" TERRITORY. HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS LOOKING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
INTRIGUING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AS THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK GOES WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA...BUT WHILE KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA JUST WEST OF
THE LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA CENTERED OVER IA. WHILE MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE AND SPECIFIC LOCATION OF
CONVECTION...THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE HERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER-
THAN-AVERAGE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR FOR MID-SUMMER...WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR LOOKING TO AVERAGE SOLIDLY INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE. WHILE
AREAS SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CWA MAY BE MORE FAVORED TO
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF A SEVERE THREAT...VARIOUS MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-ARW ALL PAINT "SOME" CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOULD
SEVERE CONVECTION IN FACT MATERIALIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A FEW RATHER
INTENSE...FAIRLY DISCRETE SOUTHEAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS...OR
POSSIBLY A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS. EITHER WAY...A DECENT
HAIL/WIND THREAT COULD EXIST...AND THIS TIME FRAME BEARS WATCHING
DESPITE CURRENTLY "ONLY" BEING CARRYING AN SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES: PER THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...THIS IS OVERALL A
NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA REACHING LOW-MID 90S
TERRITORY FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE A "SLIGHT" COOL-DOWN MORE
SO INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S FROM TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THESE LATTER 3 DAYS LATELY...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE
VERY LATEST 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH OF A COOL-DOWN AT ALL...AND IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD...DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF MID-LATE WEEK HIGHS START TO
INCREASE IN LATER FORECASTS. OF COURSE...A FEW DAYS MAY BE PRONE
TO COOLING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS...BUT
THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE IN ADVANCE. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO
DAYS APPEAR TO CARRY A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ DEGREES. NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES TEND TO CARRY A BIT HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND MOST NIGHTS LOOK TO
FEATURE TYPICAL VALUES IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 RANGE...CERTAINLY
NOTHING THAT RESEMBLES THE MORE FALL-LIKE READINGS ON A FEW RECENT
MORNINGS.

FINISHING UP WITH A FAIRLY QUICK LOOK AT THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN
EXPECTATIONS AND VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES IN 1-2 DAY CHUNKS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: SEE THE MAIN PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER
PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE INGREDIENTS THAT "MIGHT"
COME TOGETHER TO BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY
STRONG NORTHWEST-FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD AS THE REGION IN THE
INTERFACE OF STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE MAIN CORE OF STRONGER FLOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS AND LIKELY TIED TO ONLY A FAIRLY WEAK...LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL BUT SEEMS TO BE GAINING MODEL SUPPORT. HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES AND PRIMARY POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
ARRIVES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE SOME 30 POPS HERE.
MOST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RESPONSIBLE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...SO
MAINTAINED A PRECIP- FREE FORECAST FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT
THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES...DAYTIME BREEZES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10
MPH FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THIS 24-HOUR BLOCK REMAINS VOID OF ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LARGELY
LACKS ANY DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCES TO KICK THINGS OFF. NUDGED UP
HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 1 DEGREE WITH THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE LOW-MID 90S
RANGE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS 48-HOUR TIME FRAME FEATURES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A BROAD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH VARYING IN THE
DETAILS OF COURSE...ARE AT LEAST SHOWING HALFWAY DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME CONTAINS SMALL POPS IN SOME
AREAS...THE OVERALL HIGHEST COVERAGE OF 30 POPS IS FOCUSED
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE
TEMPERATURE-SPECIFIC PARAGRAPH...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HERE...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ARGUE FOR WARMER RATHER THAN COOLER.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE LOCAL REGION LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE
VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF AN EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...PUTTING THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSUMING THAT WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES DO NOT POSE CAPPING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR
10KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS...AND MAINTAINED A VCTS FROM
AROUND 01/00Z THROUGH 01/06Z TO COVER THIS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 311043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOCAL OVER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
HELPED STEER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INCREASE MOISTURE WILL HELP INSTABILITY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL
ARE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR
VALUES...JUSTIFIES THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE INHIBITION FOR
STORM FORMATION...THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANY ACTIVITY BEING
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT
IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR LATER TODAY. IN GENERAL...MODEL DATA
IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS DO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. SO WITH CONSENSUS THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL
FORM...BUMPED UP PROBABILITIES BY ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT FOR MOST
AREAS LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SEASONAL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL...NO "MAJOR" CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD VERSUS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS ALL IN ALL IT`S A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO PREVAIL AT NEAR-TO-
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...AND VARIOUS HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT. BY SUMMER
STANDARDS THOUGH...THERE IS PROBABLY A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN
USUAL IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME NEXT WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY (SEE BELOW FOR MORE).

WILL START BY TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF BOTH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCLUDING
SATURDAY: OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS (TWELVE HOUR
BLOCKS)...ONLY 2 CONTINUE TO CARRY A COMPLETELY "DRY" FORECAST
CWA-WIDE...THOSE BEING SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURPRISINGLY
THOUGH...EVEN THIS TIME FRAME IS NO "GUARANTEE" TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY VOID OF CONVECTION AS A FEW MODELS PAINT
LIMITED/ISOLATED POTENTIAL WITHIN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT NOTHING
YET WORTHY OF ADVERTISING 15+ PERCENT MENTIONABLE CHANCES (POPS)
YET. OF THE OTHER 9 PERIODS THAT DO ADVERTISE PRECIP CHANCES
WITHIN AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO TYPICAL ABOVE-
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN A PREVALENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SUMMER
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM TAKING TO THE BANK...AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THE OVERALL "BEST" WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIALLY
(KEY WORD POTENTIALLY) MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA MIGHT BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST CWA)...THEN THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME AS A POTENTIALLY SEMI-ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THIS IS REALLY FAR OUT THERE TO GET TOO
EXCITED ABOUT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN AT LEAST A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES...AS TYPICALLY DECENT SUMMER INSTABILITY VALUES
COMBINE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT ABOVE-AVERAGE REGIME OF
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES (THANKS TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT). OF
COURSE...GIVEN THAT FORCING ALOFT IS GENERALLY FAIRLY WEAK...THE
SPECIFICS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MOST DAYS/NIGHTS IS STILL
VERY MUCH OUT OF REACH...AND AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK IN KEEPING THE MONDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN
"PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" TERRITORY. HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS LOOKING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
INTRIGUING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AS THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK GOES WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA...BUT WHILE KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA JUST WEST OF
THE LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA CENTERED OVER IA. WHILE MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE AND SPECIFIC LOCATION OF
CONVECTION...THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE HERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER-
THAN-AVERAGE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR FOR MID-SUMMER...WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR LOOKING TO AVERAGE SOLIDLY INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE. WHILE
AREAS SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CWA MAY BE MORE FAVORED TO
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF A SEVERE THREAT...VARIOUS MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-ARW ALL PAINT "SOME" CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOULD
SEVERE CONVECTION IN FACT MATERIALIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A FEW RATHER
INTENSE...FAIRLY DISCRETE SOUTHEAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS...OR
POSSIBLY A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS. EITHER WAY...A DECENT
HAIL/WIND THREAT COULD EXIST...AND THIS TIME FRAME BEARS WATCHING
DESPITE CURRENTLY "ONLY" BEING CARRYING AN SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES: PER THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...THIS IS OVERALL A
NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA REACHING LOW-MID 90S
TERRITORY FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE A "SLIGHT" COOL-DOWN MORE
SO INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S FROM TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THESE LATTER 3 DAYS LATELY...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE
VERY LATEST 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH OF A COOL-DOWN AT ALL...AND IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD...DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF MID-LATE WEEK HIGHS START TO
INCREASE IN LATER FORECASTS. OF COURSE...A FEW DAYS MAY BE PRONE
TO COOLING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS...BUT
THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE IN ADVANCE. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO
DAYS APPEAR TO CARRY A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ DEGREES. NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES TEND TO CARRY A BIT HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND MOST NIGHTS LOOK TO
FEATURE TYPICAL VALUES IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 RANGE...CERTAINLY
NOTHING THAT RESEMBLES THE MORE FALL-LIKE READINGS ON A FEW RECENT
MORNINGS.

FINISHING UP WITH A FAIRLY QUICK LOOK AT THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN
EXPECTATIONS AND VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES IN 1-2 DAY CHUNKS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: SEE THE MAIN PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER
PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE INGREDIENTS THAT "MIGHT"
COME TOGETHER TO BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY
STRONG NORTHWEST-FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD AS THE REGION IN THE
INTERFACE OF STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE MAIN CORE OF STRONGER FLOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS AND LIKELY TIED TO ONLY A FAIRLY WEAK...LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL BUT SEEMS TO BE GAINING MODEL SUPPORT. HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES AND PRIMARY POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
ARRIVES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE SOME 30 POPS HERE.
MOST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RESPONSIBLE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...SO
MAINTAINED A PRECIP- FREE FORECAST FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT
THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES...DAYTIME BREEZES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10
MPH FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THIS 24-HOUR BLOCK REMAINS VOID OF ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LARGELY
LACKS ANY DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCES TO KICK THINGS OFF. NUDGED UP
HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 1 DEGREE WITH THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE LOW-MID 90S
RANGE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS 48-HOUR TIME FRAME FEATURES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A BROAD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH VARYING IN THE
DETAILS OF COURSE...ARE AT LEAST SHOWING HALFWAY DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME CONTAINS SMALL POPS IN SOME
AREAS...THE OVERALL HIGHEST COVERAGE OF 30 POPS IS FOCUSED
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE
TEMPERATURE-SPECIFIC PARAGRAPH...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HERE...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ARGUE FOR WARMER RATHER THAN COOLER.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE LOCAL REGION LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE
VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF AN EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...PUTTING THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSUMING THAT WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES DO NOT POSE CAPPING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR
10KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS...AND MAINTAINED A VCTS FROM
AROUND 01/00Z THROUGH 01/06Z TO COVER THIS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 310918
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
LOCAL OVER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
HELPED STEER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
INCREASE MOISTURE WILL HELP INSTABILITY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL
ARE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR
VALUES...JUSTIFIES THE MENTION OF SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE INHIBITION FOR
STORM FORMATION...THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANY ACTIVITY BEING
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT
IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR LATER TODAY. IN GENERAL...MODEL DATA
IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS DO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE 00Z WRF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. SO WITH CONSENSUS THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL
FORM...BUMPED UP PROBABILITIES BY ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT FOR MOST
AREAS LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SEASONAL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES...AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL...NO "MAJOR" CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD VERSUS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS ALL IN ALL IT`S A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO PREVAIL AT NEAR-TO-
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...AND VARIOUS HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT. BY SUMMER
STANDARDS THOUGH...THERE IS PROBABLY A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN
USUAL IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME NEXT WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY (SEE BELOW FOR MORE).

WILL START BY TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF BOTH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS...

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCLUDING
SATURDAY: OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS (TWELVE HOUR
BLOCKS)...ONLY 2 CONTINUE TO CARRY A COMPLETELY "DRY" FORECAST
CWA-WIDE...THOSE BEING SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT SURPRISINGLY
THOUGH...EVEN THIS TIME FRAME IS NO "GUARANTEE" TO REMAIN
COMPLETELY VOID OF CONVECTION AS A FEW MODELS PAINT
LIMITED/ISOLATED POTENTIAL WITHIN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT NOTHING
YET WORTHY OF ADVERTISING 15+ PERCENT MENTIONABLE CHANCES (POPS)
YET. OF THE OTHER 9 PERIODS THAT DO ADVERTISE PRECIP CHANCES
WITHIN AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO TYPICAL ABOVE-
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN A PREVALENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SUMMER
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM TAKING TO THE BANK...AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THE OVERALL "BEST" WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIALLY
(KEY WORD POTENTIALLY) MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA MIGHT BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST CWA)...THEN THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME AS A POTENTIALLY SEMI-ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THIS IS REALLY FAR OUT THERE TO GET TOO
EXCITED ABOUT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN AT LEAST A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES...AS TYPICALLY DECENT SUMMER INSTABILITY VALUES
COMBINE WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT ABOVE-AVERAGE REGIME OF
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES (THANKS TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT). OF
COURSE...GIVEN THAT FORCING ALOFT IS GENERALLY FAIRLY WEAK...THE
SPECIFICS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MOST DAYS/NIGHTS IS STILL
VERY MUCH OUT OF REACH...AND AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 4-8
OUTLOOK IN KEEPING THE MONDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN
"PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" TERRITORY. HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS LOOKING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
INTRIGUING FOR MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AS THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK GOES WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA...BUT WHILE KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA JUST WEST OF
THE LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA CENTERED OVER IA. WHILE MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE AND SPECIFIC LOCATION OF
CONVECTION...THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE HERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER-
THAN-AVERAGE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR FOR MID-SUMMER...WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR LOOKING TO AVERAGE SOLIDLY INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE. WHILE
AREAS SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CWA MAY BE MORE FAVORED TO
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF A SEVERE THREAT...VARIOUS MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-ARW ALL PAINT "SOME" CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOULD
SEVERE CONVECTION IN FACT MATERIALIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A FEW RATHER
INTENSE...FAIRLY DISCRETE SOUTHEAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS...OR
POSSIBLY A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS. EITHER WAY...A DECENT
HAIL/WIND THREAT COULD EXIST...AND THIS TIME FRAME BEARS WATCHING
DESPITE CURRENTLY "ONLY" BEING CARRYING AN SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES: PER THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...THIS IS OVERALL A
NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA REACHING LOW-MID 90S
TERRITORY FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY...BEFORE A "SLIGHT" COOL-DOWN MORE
SO INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S FROM TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THESE LATTER 3 DAYS LATELY...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THESE
VERY LATEST 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH OF A COOL-DOWN AT ALL...AND IF THESE
TRENDS HOLD...DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF MID-LATE WEEK HIGHS START TO
INCREASE IN LATER FORECASTS. OF COURSE...A FEW DAYS MAY BE PRONE
TO COOLING EFFECTS OF CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS...BUT
THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE IN ADVANCE. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO
DAYS APPEAR TO CARRY A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100+ DEGREES. NIGHTLY LOW TEMPERATURES TEND TO CARRY A BIT HIGHER
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND MOST NIGHTS LOOK TO
FEATURE TYPICAL VALUES IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 RANGE...CERTAINLY
NOTHING THAT RESEMBLES THE MORE FALL-LIKE READINGS ON A FEW RECENT
MORNINGS.

FINISHING UP WITH A FAIRLY QUICK LOOK AT THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN
EXPECTATIONS AND VARIOUS UNCERTAINTIES IN 1-2 DAY CHUNKS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: SEE THE MAIN PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER
PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE INGREDIENTS THAT "MIGHT"
COME TOGETHER TO BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY
STRONG NORTHWEST-FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD AS THE REGION IN THE
INTERFACE OF STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE MAIN CORE OF STRONGER FLOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CONUS. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS AND LIKELY TIED TO ONLY A FAIRLY WEAK...LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL BUT SEEMS TO BE GAINING MODEL SUPPORT. HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES GOING RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES AND PRIMARY POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK
ARRIVES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE SOME 30 POPS HERE.
MOST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RESPONSIBLE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...SO
MAINTAINED A PRECIP- FREE FORECAST FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...BUT
THIS COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. NOT ACCOUNTING FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES...DAYTIME BREEZES SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10
MPH FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THIS 24-HOUR BLOCK REMAINS VOID OF ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES...AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LARGELY
LACKS ANY DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCES TO KICK THINGS OFF. NUDGED UP
HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 1 DEGREE WITH THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE LOW-MID 90S
RANGE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS 48-HOUR TIME FRAME FEATURES A
TRANSITION FROM MORE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A BROAD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS...THOUGH VARYING IN THE
DETAILS OF COURSE...ARE AT LEAST SHOWING HALFWAY DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME CONTAINS SMALL POPS IN SOME
AREAS...THE OVERALL HIGHEST COVERAGE OF 30 POPS IS FOCUSED
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE
TEMPERATURE-SPECIFIC PARAGRAPH...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HERE...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ARGUE FOR WARMER RATHER THAN COOLER.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE LOCAL REGION LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE
VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF AN EXPANDING SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...PUTTING THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSUMING THAT WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES DO NOT POSE CAPPING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR
10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS...AND INTRODUCED A VCTS POST 01/00Z TO
COVER THIS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 310553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR
10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS...AND INTRODUCED A VCTS POST 01/00Z TO
COVER THIS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 310553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR
10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS...AND INTRODUCED A VCTS POST 01/00Z TO
COVER THIS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 302240
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LIGHT SURFACE WIND...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 06KTS...WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 302240
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LIGHT SURFACE WIND...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 06KTS...WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 302050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF CAVEATS. THERE IS
SOME MID-LEVEL CU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE SANDHILLS SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS...AS
THIS IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...PROBABLY JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 302050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF CAVEATS. THERE IS
SOME MID-LEVEL CU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE SANDHILLS SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS...AS
THIS IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...PROBABLY JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 302050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF CAVEATS. THERE IS
SOME MID-LEVEL CU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE SANDHILLS SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS...AS
THIS IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...PROBABLY JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 302050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...PUTTING US WITHIN
GENERALLY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER CREEPING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA AS A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THIS...LIKE THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ARW. A CONSIDERABLE CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED...SIGNALING THAT SOME MODELS HAD A CLUE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO STICK A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN OUR WEST/NORTH. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL LIKELY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING AS THIS
WOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME

ANOTHER COMPLICATION COMES OVERNIGHT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN
THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES...THIS COULD ADD TO OUR CHANCES. THE WRF ARW PLACES A
THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT NOT QUITE
WITHIN OUR BORDERS. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTH. ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAY
BE GIVEN A CHANCE TO LIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE HELP OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

WITH FRIDAY COMES MORE UNCERTAINTY. I EXPECT CAPE TO INCREASE TO
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH
RATHER WEAK) HEADING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION. SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SREF PAINTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30
TO 40 KT RANGE TOMORROW...IT IS ABOUT 10 KTS TOO HIGH TODAY...SO MY
GUESS IS THAT SHEAR WILL BE MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO 30 KTS IN OUR NORTH. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WENT
WITH CONSRAW...WHICH KEEPS US PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I
USED A COMBINATION OF NAM/BCCONSRAW/HI RES FOR FRIDAY MAXIMUMS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST TOO HIGH
DEPENDING ON HOW TSTMS PLAY OUT. TSTM/RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST...WITH A RIDGE IN THE W
AND A TROF IN THE E. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
DESERT SW. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OFF THE W COAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. WHILE THERE IS MODEL SPREAD...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE E PAC TROF WILL APPROACH THE W COAST WED-THU.
THIS WOULD NUDGE THE WRN USA RIDGE TOWARD THE E AND A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE FCST AREA.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE FCST AREA...
WHICH MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THAT LEAVES OUR
SENSIBLE WX TIED TO SMALL SCALE FEATURES WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCT FOR IN THE LONG-TERM FCST.

EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE...THE EC/GFS TRY TO BRING A WEAK VORT MAX THRU
HERE...BUT THESE ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION...HAVE LITTLE
OR NO CONSISTENCY AND THEY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REALITY. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS INCREASES FCST UNCERTAINTY EVEN MORE.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NEB FRI WILL LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT SAT AS LOW PRES DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT INTO SD. THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MT-SD-IA AND THEN E INTO
THE OH VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL OSCILLATE SOME AS
MULTIPLE LOWS TRACK SE ALONG IT...AND AT TIMES IT WILL DROP INTO
NEB. ITS LOCATION WILL ALSO BE MUDDIED BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

SEVERE: THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE TSTM OR TWO SAT...BUT
IT`S CONDITIONAL ON IF TSTMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SOMETHING FIRES 4PM-10PM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 40 KTS
IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

TEMPS WILL EDGE A LITTLE HOTTER EACH DAY THRU MON...SLOWLY CLIMBING
FROM NEAR NORMAL SAT...TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON. WHILE WE HAVE
INDICATED A COOL-DOWN INTO THE 80S OVER S-CNTRL NEB TUE-THU...AM NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS. IT COULD BE DUE MODELED CONVECTION...WHICH
IS FAR FROM RELIABLE. HOWEVER...WE CONT TO SEE HINTS THAT THE FRONT
COULD SAG DOWN TO I-70 TUE...DUE TO SOME MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 4 OF THE LAST 5 EC RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON THIS AND NOW THE 06Z/12Z GFS ARE ON BOARD. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF CAVEATS. THERE IS
SOME MID-LEVEL CU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE SANDHILLS SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS...AS
THIS IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...PROBABLY JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 301800
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF CAVEATS. THERE IS
SOME MID-LEVEL CU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE SANDHILLS SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS...AS
THIS IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...PROBABLY JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 301800
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF CAVEATS. THERE IS
SOME MID-LEVEL CU DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE SANDHILLS SHOULD DIE OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE TERMINALS...AS
THIS IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...PROBABLY JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 301149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
IN A CONTINUED QUIET 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CAVEATS TO ADVERTISED VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
ARE:
1) IF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO AFFECT THE
AREA..AND ALTHOUGH THIS CHANCE IS NOT TRULY "ZERO"...IT CURRENTLY
SEEMS TO BE NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF
INCLUSION.
2) A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT
FOG DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THIS POSSIBILITY STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.

SURFACE WIND SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NEAR/BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND WITH DIRECTION FOR THE 24 HOURS AS A WHOLE AVERAGING
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 301149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
IN A CONTINUED QUIET 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CAVEATS TO ADVERTISED VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
ARE:
1) IF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO AFFECT THE
AREA..AND ALTHOUGH THIS CHANCE IS NOT TRULY "ZERO"...IT CURRENTLY
SEEMS TO BE NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF
INCLUSION.
2) A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT
FOG DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THIS POSSIBILITY STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.

SURFACE WIND SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NEAR/BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND WITH DIRECTION FOR THE 24 HOURS AS A WHOLE AVERAGING
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 301149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
IN A CONTINUED QUIET 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CAVEATS TO ADVERTISED VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
ARE:
1) IF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO AFFECT THE
AREA..AND ALTHOUGH THIS CHANCE IS NOT TRULY "ZERO"...IT CURRENTLY
SEEMS TO BE NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF
INCLUSION.
2) A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT
FOG DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THIS POSSIBILITY STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.

SURFACE WIND SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NEAR/BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND WITH DIRECTION FOR THE 24 HOURS AS A WHOLE AVERAGING
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 301149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
IN A CONTINUED QUIET 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT. ABOUT
THE ONLY POTENTIAL CAVEATS TO ADVERTISED VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
ARE:
1) IF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO AFFECT THE
AREA..AND ALTHOUGH THIS CHANCE IS NOT TRULY "ZERO"...IT CURRENTLY
SEEMS TO BE NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF
INCLUSION.
2) A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT
FOG DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...BUT
THIS POSSIBILITY STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.

SURFACE WIND SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NEAR/BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND WITH DIRECTION FOR THE 24 HOURS AS A WHOLE AVERAGING
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 300900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 300900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 300900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 300900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
A MODEST WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY TO HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 UNDER PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS FOR SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES...THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE (AND A SOMEWHAT FRUSTRATING ONE
FROM A MESSAGE STANDPOINT) IN THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY
"ZERO"...THEY ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION VERSUS 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER. AS MOST FOLKS LIKELY ALREADY
REALIZE...OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST PRODUCTS DO NOT FORMALLY MENTION
RAIN CHANCES UNLESS THEY ARE AT LEAST 15-20 PERCENT. SO THIS IS A
CASE WHERE THE FORECAST WILL GO OUT SOUNDING "DRY"...BUT IN
REALITY IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON SOME MODELS THAT AT
LEAST VERY SMALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD REALIZE ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT SOME POINT. OBVIOUSLY NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN CASE LIMITED AREAS OF
MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) END UP BEING
WARRANTED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL
PLACEMENT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS JUST LACKING TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" THE INHERITED DRY
FORECAST...DESPITE THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK PAINTING MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN "GENERAL THUNDER" POTENTIAL.

BREAKING DOWN THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM...IT`S BEEN A VERY
QUIET...LARGELY CLEAR AND AGAIN SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...AS SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA COULD EASILY REALIZE LOWS A TOUCH COOLER THAN EVEN THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN END
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 55-60 RANGE WITH PARTS OF OUR KS ZONES BEING
MOST FAVORED TO POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE 60 THANKS TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. AS THIS IS IS BEING TYPED...A SMALL AREA OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL KS I-70
CORRIDOR...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT
NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL. AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...THIS EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY COME CLOSE TO FLIRTING WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL "ASSUME" FOR NOW
THAT IT WILL IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH WITHIN THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE. IN
THE BIGGER PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD...AS
THE LOCAL AREA IS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WEST TX AREA...AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND TOWARD MN. THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN KS IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND ALSO RESIDES WITHIN AN AREA OF NOTICEABLY HIGHER LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THAT FOUND OVER THE
LOCAL CWA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER/NEAR THE CWA...PROMOTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING MANY PLACES ARE REPORTING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS:

EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 7AM): CERTAINLY THE MAIN THING WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPANDING WEAK
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS SEEMINGLY TIED MAINLY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850MB...AND MAKING SURE THAT IT DOES IN
FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE
OFTEN-RELIABLE 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF SEEMS TO ALREADY HAVE A FAIRLY
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY...AND LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY DOES IN FACT REMAIN JUST SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS
THE LAST TRULY "COOL" MORNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): AS OUTLINED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE...SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...BUT JUST CANNOT
TOTALLY "GUARANTEE" IT. STARTING WITH THE LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER
LEVEL SCENE...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. THERE ARE ALMOST NO EVIDENT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES THAT APPEAR TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEAK FORCING CONTINUING TO TARGET
AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE FROM CO/NM EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN KS/OK. THAT BEING SAID...WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 850MB BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...AT LEAST
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
FORCING LACKING...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES...WHILE LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS
LATER-DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLY CLIPPING/INFILTRATING OUR FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AGAIN HAVE DEEMED THE ODDS TO BE
BELOW MENTIONABLE 15+ PERCENT LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN OTHER NON-
PRECIP DEPARTMENTS...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN KS
ZONES MAINLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT AN OVERALL MOSTLY-SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE CWA. THE RESULTANT HEATING...IN TANDEM WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES UP TO AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD
GIVE AFTERNOON TEMPS A DECENT BUMP ABOVE THOSE OF YESTERDAY...AND
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA INTO THE 87-90 RANGE. ALTHOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON A SLIGHT INCREASE AS WELL.
IT APPEARS THE NAM MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINT INCREASES
AND THE GFS TOO DRY...SO HAVE AIMED MOST AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S RANGE.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIT ON A FEW
TIMES NOW...THE "DRY" FORECAST CONTINUES BUT WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CAVEATS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTAINING LITTLE TO NO EVIDENT
FORCING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING
PARAGRAPH...THE EVENING HOURS COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TRYING TO AFFECT THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST CWA...BUT WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THIS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND ALSO LIKELY WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
COOLING...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. EVEN
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AT LEAST TWO MODELS (00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF-NMM)
SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
TO FLARE UP NEAR OR POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST AND/OR CENTRAL
CWA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE
850-700MB LEVEL. YET AGAIN THOUGH...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
LACKING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM AND
NSSL WRF...THAT POPS WERE HELD BELOW THE MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVEL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH BREEZES SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...THE
EFFECTS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
REGIME HEADING INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN MADE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HERE...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE JET STREAM FOCUSED
WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEERED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MODELS
INDICATING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB BY AFTERNOON...
EXPECT AMPLE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AND BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY
WEAK...AND HENCE MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SUB-SEVERE...ALBEIT THE LOCAL AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...THIS
COULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE EVENING FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTION ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS OR FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

OVERALL...DESPITE THE MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM/FEATURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST FOR THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 300523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 300523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 300523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 300523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

BARRING SOME RATHER UNEXPECTED CHANGES...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN A CONTINUED VERY QUIET 24 HOURS AVIATION-WISE. CERTAINLY
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE...AND IN FACT ANTICIPATE FAIRLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER
EVEN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT/BELOW
10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIRECTION MAINLY AVERAGING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF A ROGUE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CANNOT SAY THIS
CHANCE IS TRULY "ZERO"...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN 10
PERCENT AND THUS IS NOT WORTHY OF TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 292319
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS WIND MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 292319
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS WIND MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 291950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 291950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH/POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAD SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SFC DPS AVERAGING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTN AND THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS CONVECTION...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BEING SAID...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS BEING PICKED UP ON RADAR. THERE HAS BEEN AN
OCCASIONAL INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES AND WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT
WITH TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR LOWS WHICH ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEADING
INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH
RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP DURING THE DAY. WARMER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN BACK ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AFTN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.  THE SREF IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AFTN BUT WITH CHCS LOOKING MINIMAL WILL
ONLY CARRY SILENT POPS ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALOFT: THE TRANSITION TO THE NEW LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETE
BY 00Z/FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE LOCKED-IN OVER THE DESERT
SW THRU AT LEAST NEXT WED. THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN
USA WITH THE TROF OVER THE E. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MEANS ESSENTIALLY NO SYNOPTIC
FORCING WHICH LEADS TO THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTM
POSSIBILITIES.

SURFACE: A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM IA-SD-MT THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS WILL PROPAGATE SE DOWN THE
FRONT. THESE LOWS AND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR SCT TSTM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY
TO THE N AND E OF THE FCST AREA. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO KS MON AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWERS HEIGHTS. THE GFS DOES DROP THE FRONT
INTO NRN KS TUE...BUT THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.
SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND ITS
BEHAVIOR WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SPURIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT
MAXIMA IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS BY TSTM OUTFLOWS.

WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING...REALLY CAN`T ADD MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DAILY DETAILS. HIT-OR-MISS TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 291729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 291142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
642 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

BARRING UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS...THIS SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET 24
HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT. FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN
VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER. AS FOR SURFACE
WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SPEEDS
AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN NATURE TODAY BEFORE
POSSIBLY BECOMING A BIT MORE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
642 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

BARRING UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS...THIS SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET 24
HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT. FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN
VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER. AS FOR SURFACE
WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SPEEDS
AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN NATURE TODAY BEFORE
POSSIBLY BECOMING A BIT MORE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 291142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
642 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

BARRING UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS...THIS SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET 24
HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT. FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN
VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER. AS FOR SURFACE
WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE SPEEDS
AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN NATURE TODAY BEFORE
POSSIBLY BECOMING A BIT MORE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 290900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 290900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities