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000
FXUS63 KGID 272351
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM
LARGELY TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR TWO TAF SITES. MOST OF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF KEAR AND KGRI LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...EITHER AIRPORT COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ON SATURDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 272351
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM
LARGELY TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR TWO TAF SITES. MOST OF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF KEAR AND KGRI LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...EITHER AIRPORT COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ON SATURDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 272351
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM
LARGELY TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR TWO TAF SITES. MOST OF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF KEAR AND KGRI LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...EITHER AIRPORT COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ON SATURDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 272351
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM
LARGELY TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR TWO TAF SITES. MOST OF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL SOUTH OF KEAR AND KGRI LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...EITHER AIRPORT COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ON SATURDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 272158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS AS WE GET TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILING
HEIGHTS IS NOT HIGH. THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS TAF FORECAST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE JUST AFTER THE ENDING HOURS. EXPECTING
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WINDS...REMAINING SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 272158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS AS WE GET TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILING
HEIGHTS IS NOT HIGH. THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS TAF FORECAST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE JUST AFTER THE ENDING HOURS. EXPECTING
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WINDS...REMAINING SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 272158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS AS WE GET TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILING
HEIGHTS IS NOT HIGH. THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS TAF FORECAST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE JUST AFTER THE ENDING HOURS. EXPECTING
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WINDS...REMAINING SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 272158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

BEEN A QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NOT LOOKING AT ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION THE
REST OF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE IA/IL BORDER. THE CWA SITS BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKIES...KEEPING THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
OCCASIONALLY SEEING A GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT
OTHERWISE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 MPH. HASNT BEEN ANY SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS...3 PM OBS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE EVENING AND MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...SITTING IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO WRN KS...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH
HOW QUICKLY ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE PRIOR TO 12Z...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS
/OTHERS ARE QUICKER/. RAMPED UP POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAINING NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE LATEST RUN
OF MODELS DEFINITELY DID NOT TREND UP WITH QPF/SNOW...AND OVERALL
ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE COMING THROUGH WILL BE A PRIMARILY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON EVENT...AND A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE ARRIVES TOMORROW EVENING/JUST
AFTER THE END OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AFTER COLLAB WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR OSBORNE AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NC KS...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AROUND 1-2 OF
THAT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THANKFULLY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE
FALLING SNOW. THE SFC PATTERN REALLY DOESNT CHANGE MUCH...KEEPING
WINDS SOUTHERLY...AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST INCLUDES TWO SNOW EVENTS FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP.

MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SNOW GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHEN THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END. THE
NAM AND SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SNOW
SHOULD END BY DAY BREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT OTHERS HAVE A MORE MID
MORNING END TIME FOR THE SNOW. HAVE KEPT SOME SNOW IN SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY. EVEN THIS IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE THE GFS HAS A BAND OF SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE NORTH A LITTLE...IT COULD
KEEP SNOWING IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY CLEAR
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT ALSO KEEPS THE
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE. WILL KEEP JUST LOW POPS DURING
THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION WILL START TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL MEAN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN KANSAS AND
NEARBY SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL TURN MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE NIGHT.

THE GOOD NEWS COMES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS
THROUGH THE AREA...WEDNESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE AREA. ONCE THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE
AROUND OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS AS WE GET TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILING
HEIGHTS IS NOT HIGH. THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS TAF FORECAST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE JUST AFTER THE ENDING HOURS. EXPECTING
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WINDS...REMAINING SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 271732
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THRU TONIGHT. WHAT
WILL TRANSPIRE FOR THE FCST AREA IS BEST SEEN AT 700 MB. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING WITH MID-LVL
WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK TROF
OVER CO/NM. THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER AND ENCOMPASSED
MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN USA. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART INTO THE ERN USA
THRU TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOCU HAS BEEN LIFTING N AND
INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT P/CLOUDY N OF I-80 AND
M/CLOUDY OR CLOUDY S. FCST SOUNDINGS AT MCK/HYS INDICATE EVENTUAL
LOW-LVL SATURATION AND INSTABILITY IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
SO THIS IS NEW VS THE PREVIOUS FCST.

CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

IF YOU HAVEN`T NOTICED...GRI NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS CONT TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR AREAS W AND S OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

ONE POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT I MAY HAVE
UNDERPLAYED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS TODAY-TONIGHT.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO REASSESS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRY TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL HELP KEEP THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT BAY AND PRESERVE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTLING IN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT NOW APPEARS THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS ANY
ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...MORE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY OUR AREA WILL NOT OBSERVE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...QUITE
THE CONTRARY. BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NAM NOW SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST BAND OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE MAIN POINT BEING MADE HERE IS THAT
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS SHIFT.

STARTING WITH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST ~0.05-0.10" LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST RECEIVING
BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THREE OR FOUR COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN THERE...IT ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE SETS
PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.01-0.05"
RANGE SOUTH OF I-80...WITH MAYBE 0.01" FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WHICH ADVERTISED ~0.20" OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT WE WILL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAIN INDICATIONS THAT THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA COULD ATTEMPT A MOVE BACK TO NORTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAM...THUS HELPING PROMOTE A ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...PRIMARILY
OUR SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
MODEL CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SUCH A SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM AND EC
PROVIDING MUCH LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES. AND WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING NEAR 20 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE ODD ONE OUT COMPARED TO THE OTHER SETS
OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO CONSIDER THE GFS
SOLUTION...AND TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
PROVIDES SATURDAY NIGHT LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.15"
ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...AND IN THE 0.04-0.10" ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THIS IS A SUBTLE DECREASE IN LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SHIFTS.

EVEN IF THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA DOES MAKE A MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL
THEN MAKE A SWIFT PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...THUS BRINING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA BY LATE MORNING. TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH AGAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
COMPARED TO THE ~0.10" WE HAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS WEEKEND. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS SNOW- WATER RATIOS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20:1...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS.

TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW-
WATER RATIOS PROVIDES 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE POSITION
OF THE OMEGA AXIS COULD PUSH KHJH CLOSER TO AN INCH. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BEAVER CITY TO HASTINGS AND OSCEOLA...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
FARTHER NORTHWEST. AND THEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE
~0.1" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THAT MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
~0.5" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. COMBINING THESE THREE PERIODS
PROVIDES STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE TO HEBRON
CLOSER TO THREE INCHES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WHAT SEEMED LIKE A SLAM
DUNK ADVISORY 12-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND
THUS...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT SO THE DAY SHIFT
CAN CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUPBERBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-50% POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TRY
AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS AS WE GET TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILING
HEIGHTS IS NOT HIGH. THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS TAF FORECAST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE JUST AFTER THE ENDING HOURS. EXPECTING
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WINDS...REMAINING SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 271732
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THRU TONIGHT. WHAT
WILL TRANSPIRE FOR THE FCST AREA IS BEST SEEN AT 700 MB. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING WITH MID-LVL
WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK TROF
OVER CO/NM. THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER AND ENCOMPASSED
MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN USA. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART INTO THE ERN USA
THRU TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOCU HAS BEEN LIFTING N AND
INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT P/CLOUDY N OF I-80 AND
M/CLOUDY OR CLOUDY S. FCST SOUNDINGS AT MCK/HYS INDICATE EVENTUAL
LOW-LVL SATURATION AND INSTABILITY IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
SO THIS IS NEW VS THE PREVIOUS FCST.

CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

IF YOU HAVEN`T NOTICED...GRI NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS CONT TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR AREAS W AND S OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

ONE POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT I MAY HAVE
UNDERPLAYED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS TODAY-TONIGHT.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO REASSESS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRY TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL HELP KEEP THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT BAY AND PRESERVE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTLING IN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT NOW APPEARS THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS ANY
ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...MORE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY OUR AREA WILL NOT OBSERVE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...QUITE
THE CONTRARY. BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NAM NOW SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST BAND OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE MAIN POINT BEING MADE HERE IS THAT
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS SHIFT.

STARTING WITH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST ~0.05-0.10" LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST RECEIVING
BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THREE OR FOUR COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN THERE...IT ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE SETS
PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.01-0.05"
RANGE SOUTH OF I-80...WITH MAYBE 0.01" FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WHICH ADVERTISED ~0.20" OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT WE WILL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAIN INDICATIONS THAT THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA COULD ATTEMPT A MOVE BACK TO NORTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAM...THUS HELPING PROMOTE A ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...PRIMARILY
OUR SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
MODEL CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SUCH A SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM AND EC
PROVIDING MUCH LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES. AND WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING NEAR 20 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE ODD ONE OUT COMPARED TO THE OTHER SETS
OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO CONSIDER THE GFS
SOLUTION...AND TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
PROVIDES SATURDAY NIGHT LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.15"
ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...AND IN THE 0.04-0.10" ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THIS IS A SUBTLE DECREASE IN LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SHIFTS.

EVEN IF THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA DOES MAKE A MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL
THEN MAKE A SWIFT PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...THUS BRINING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA BY LATE MORNING. TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH AGAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
COMPARED TO THE ~0.10" WE HAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS WEEKEND. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS SNOW- WATER RATIOS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20:1...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS.

TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW-
WATER RATIOS PROVIDES 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE POSITION
OF THE OMEGA AXIS COULD PUSH KHJH CLOSER TO AN INCH. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BEAVER CITY TO HASTINGS AND OSCEOLA...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
FARTHER NORTHWEST. AND THEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE
~0.1" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THAT MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
~0.5" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. COMBINING THESE THREE PERIODS
PROVIDES STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE TO HEBRON
CLOSER TO THREE INCHES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WHAT SEEMED LIKE A SLAM
DUNK ADVISORY 12-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND
THUS...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT SO THE DAY SHIFT
CAN CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUPBERBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-50% POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TRY
AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS AS WE GET TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILING
HEIGHTS IS NOT HIGH. THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS TAF FORECAST...WITH BETTER
CHANCES LOOKING TO BE JUST AFTER THE ENDING HOURS. EXPECTING
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WINDS...REMAINING SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 271145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THRU TONIGHT. WHAT
WILL TRANSPIRE FOR THE FCST AREA IS BEST SEEN AT 700 MB. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING WITH MID-LVL
WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK TROF
OVER CO/NM. THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER AND ENCOMPASSED
MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN USA. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART INTO THE ERN USA
THRU TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOCU HAS BEEN LIFTING N AND
INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT P/CLOUDY N OF I-80 AND
M/CLOUDY OR CLOUDY S. FCST SOUNDINGS AT MCK/HYS INDICATE EVENTUAL
LOW-LVL SATURATION AND INSTABILITY IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
SO THIS IS NEW VS THE PREVIOUS FCST.

CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

IF YOU HAVEN`T NOTICED...GRI NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS CONT TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR AREAS W AND S OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

ONE POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT I MAY HAVE
UNDERPLAYED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS TODAY-TONIGHT.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO REASSESS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRY TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL HELP KEEP THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT BAY AND PRESERVE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTLING IN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT NOW APPEARS THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS ANY
ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...MORE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY OUR AREA WILL NOT OBSERVE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...QUITE
THE CONTRARY. BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NAM NOW SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST BAND OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE MAIN POINT BEING MADE HERE IS THAT
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS SHIFT.

STARTING WITH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST ~0.05-0.10" LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST RECEIVING
BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THREE OR FOUR COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN THERE...IT ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE SETS
PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.01-0.05"
RANGE SOUTH OF I-80...WITH MAYBE 0.01" FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WHICH ADVERTISED ~0.20" OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT WE WILL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAIN INDICATIONS THAT THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA COULD ATTEMPT A MOVE BACK TO NORTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAM...THUS HELPING PROMOTE A ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...PRIMARILY
OUR SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
MODEL CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SUCH A SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM AND EC
PROVIDING MUCH LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES. AND WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING NEAR 20 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE ODD ONE OUT COMPARED TO THE OTHER SETS
OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO CONSIDER THE GFS
SOLUTION...AND TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
PROVIDES SATURDAY NIGHT LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.15"
ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...AND IN THE 0.04-0.10" ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THIS IS A SUBTLE DECREASE IN LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SHIFTS.

EVEN IF THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA DOES MAKE A MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL
THEN MAKE A SWIFT PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...THUS BRINING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA BY LATE MORNING. TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH AGAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
COMPARED TO THE ~0.10" WE HAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS WEEKEND. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS SNOW- WATER RATIOS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20:1...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS.

TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW-
WATER RATIOS PROVIDES 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE POSITION
OF THE OMEGA AXIS COULD PUSH KHJH CLOSER TO AN INCH. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BEAVER CITY TO HASTINGS AND OSCEOLA...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
FARTHER NORTHWEST. AND THEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE
~0.1" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THAT MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
~0.5" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. COMBINING THESE THREE PERIODS
PROVIDES STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE TO HEBRON
CLOSER TO THREE INCHES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WHAT SEEMED LIKE A SLAM
DUNK ADVISORY 12-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND
THUS...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT SO THE DAY SHIFT
CAN CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUPBERBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-50% POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TRY
AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TODAY: VFR. FOR NOW PLAYED THE ALTOCU AS SCT AROUND 12K FT BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL IT COULD BECOME A CIG FOR A TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S-SSE LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH EXCEPT ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVERAGE.

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DESCEND TO NEAR 5K FT
AND THE 06Z MAV MOS AND THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AFTER 10Z AT EAR. SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
UNANIMOUS...WENT JUST ABOVE MVFR SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. S-SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 271145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THRU TONIGHT. WHAT
WILL TRANSPIRE FOR THE FCST AREA IS BEST SEEN AT 700 MB. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING WITH MID-LVL
WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK TROF
OVER CO/NM. THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER AND ENCOMPASSED
MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN USA. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART INTO THE ERN USA
THRU TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOCU HAS BEEN LIFTING N AND
INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT P/CLOUDY N OF I-80 AND
M/CLOUDY OR CLOUDY S. FCST SOUNDINGS AT MCK/HYS INDICATE EVENTUAL
LOW-LVL SATURATION AND INSTABILITY IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
SO THIS IS NEW VS THE PREVIOUS FCST.

CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

IF YOU HAVEN`T NOTICED...GRI NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS CONT TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR AREAS W AND S OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

ONE POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT I MAY HAVE
UNDERPLAYED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS TODAY-TONIGHT.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO REASSESS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRY TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL HELP KEEP THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT BAY AND PRESERVE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTLING IN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT NOW APPEARS THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS ANY
ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...MORE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY OUR AREA WILL NOT OBSERVE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...QUITE
THE CONTRARY. BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NAM NOW SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST BAND OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE MAIN POINT BEING MADE HERE IS THAT
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS SHIFT.

STARTING WITH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST ~0.05-0.10" LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST RECEIVING
BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THREE OR FOUR COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN THERE...IT ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE SETS
PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.01-0.05"
RANGE SOUTH OF I-80...WITH MAYBE 0.01" FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WHICH ADVERTISED ~0.20" OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT WE WILL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAIN INDICATIONS THAT THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA COULD ATTEMPT A MOVE BACK TO NORTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAM...THUS HELPING PROMOTE A ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...PRIMARILY
OUR SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
MODEL CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SUCH A SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM AND EC
PROVIDING MUCH LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES. AND WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING NEAR 20 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE ODD ONE OUT COMPARED TO THE OTHER SETS
OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO CONSIDER THE GFS
SOLUTION...AND TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
PROVIDES SATURDAY NIGHT LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.15"
ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...AND IN THE 0.04-0.10" ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THIS IS A SUBTLE DECREASE IN LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SHIFTS.

EVEN IF THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA DOES MAKE A MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL
THEN MAKE A SWIFT PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...THUS BRINING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA BY LATE MORNING. TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH AGAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
COMPARED TO THE ~0.10" WE HAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS WEEKEND. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS SNOW- WATER RATIOS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20:1...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS.

TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW-
WATER RATIOS PROVIDES 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE POSITION
OF THE OMEGA AXIS COULD PUSH KHJH CLOSER TO AN INCH. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BEAVER CITY TO HASTINGS AND OSCEOLA...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
FARTHER NORTHWEST. AND THEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE
~0.1" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THAT MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
~0.5" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. COMBINING THESE THREE PERIODS
PROVIDES STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE TO HEBRON
CLOSER TO THREE INCHES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WHAT SEEMED LIKE A SLAM
DUNK ADVISORY 12-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND
THUS...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT SO THE DAY SHIFT
CAN CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUPBERBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-50% POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TRY
AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TODAY: VFR. FOR NOW PLAYED THE ALTOCU AS SCT AROUND 12K FT BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL IT COULD BECOME A CIG FOR A TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S-SSE LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH EXCEPT ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVERAGE.

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DESCEND TO NEAR 5K FT
AND THE 06Z MAV MOS AND THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AFTER 10Z AT EAR. SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
UNANIMOUS...WENT JUST ABOVE MVFR SINCE IT IS NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. S-SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 270926
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THRU TONIGHT. WHAT
WILL TRANSPIRE FOR THE FCST AREA IS BEST SEEN AT 700 MB. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING WITH MID-LVL
WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK TROF
OVER CO/NM. THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER AND ENCOMPASSED
MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN USA. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART INTO THE ERN USA
THRU TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOCU HAS BEEN LIFTING N AND
INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT P/CLOUDY N OF I-80 AND
M/CLOUDY OR CLOUDY S. FCST SOUNDINGS AT MCK/HYS INDICATE EVENTUAL
LOW-LVL SATURATION AND INSTABILITY IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
SO THIS IS NEW VS THE PREVIOUS FCST.

CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

IF YOU HAVEN`T NOTICED...GRI NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS CONT TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR AREAS W AND S OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

ONE POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT I MAY HAVE
UNDERPLAYED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS TODAY-TONIGHT.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO REASSESS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRY TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL HELP KEEP THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT BAY AND PRESERVE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTLING IN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT NOW APPEARS THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS ANY
ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...MORE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY OUR AREA WILL NOT OBSERVE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...QUITE
THE CONTRARY. BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NAM NOW SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST BAND OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE MAIN POINT BEING MADE HERE IS THAT
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS SHIFT.

STARTING WITH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST ~0.05-0.10" LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST RECEIVING
BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THREE OR FOUR COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN THERE...IT ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE SETS
PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.01-0.05"
RANGE SOUTH OF I-80...WITH MAYBE 0.01" FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WHICH ADVERTISED ~0.20" OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT WE WILL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAIN INDICATIONS THAT THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA COULD ATTEMPT A MOVE BACK TO NORTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAM...THUS HELPING PROMOTE A ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...PRIMARILY
OUR SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
MODEL CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SUCH A SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM AND EC
PROVIDING MUCH LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES. AND WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING NEAR 20 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE ODD ONE OUT COMPARED TO THE OTHER SETS
OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO CONSIDER THE GFS
SOLUTION...AND TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
PROVIDES SATURDAY NIGHT LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.15"
ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...AND IN THE 0.04-0.10" ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THIS IS A SUBTLE DECREASE IN LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SHIFTS.

EVEN IF THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA DOES MAKE A MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL
THEN MAKE A SWIFT PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...THUS BRINING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA BY LATE MORNING. TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH AGAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
COMPARED TO THE ~0.10" WE HAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS WEEKEND. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS SNOW- WATER RATIOS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20:1...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS.

TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW-
WATER RATIOS PROVIDES 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE POSITION
OF THE OMEGA AXIS COULD PUSH KHJH CLOSER TO AN INCH. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BEAVER CITY TO HASTINGS AND OSCEOLA...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
FARTHER NORTHWEST. AND THEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE
~0.1" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THAT MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
~0.5" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. COMBINING THESE THREE PERIODS
PROVIDES STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE TO HEBRON
CLOSER TO THREE INCHES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WHAT SEEMED LIKE A SLAM
DUNK ADVISORY 12-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND
THUS...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT SO THE DAY SHIFT
CAN CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUPBERBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-50% POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TRY
AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRI NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BECOME SE BY DAWN.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

FRI: VFR WITH SOME HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS OFF TO THE S AND W.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 13K FT...BUT
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE. S WINDS UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

FRI EVE: VFR WITH HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS POSSIBLE. S WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 270926
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THRU TONIGHT. WHAT
WILL TRANSPIRE FOR THE FCST AREA IS BEST SEEN AT 700 MB. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING WITH MID-LVL
WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE WEAK TROF
OVER CO/NM. THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER AND ENCOMPASSED
MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN USA. THIS HIGH WILL DEPART INTO THE ERN USA
THRU TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOCU HAS BEEN LIFTING N AND
INTO THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT P/CLOUDY N OF I-80 AND
M/CLOUDY OR CLOUDY S. FCST SOUNDINGS AT MCK/HYS INDICATE EVENTUAL
LOW-LVL SATURATION AND INSTABILITY IN THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
SO THIS IS NEW VS THE PREVIOUS FCST.

CONTINUED VERY COLD...BUT NOT QUITE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

IF YOU HAVEN`T NOTICED...GRI NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 40S.

TONIGHT: CLOUDS CONT TO INCREASE AND THICKEN. CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR AREAS W AND S OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

ONE POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT I MAY HAVE
UNDERPLAYED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS TODAY-TONIGHT.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO REASSESS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL TRY TO TURN OUR FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL HELP KEEP THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT BAY AND PRESERVE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AND APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETTLING IN TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT NOW APPEARS THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS ANY
ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS...MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF OUR CWA...MORE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY OUR AREA WILL NOT OBSERVE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...QUITE
THE CONTRARY. BUT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND ESPECIALLY
THE NAM NOW SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST BAND OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THE MAIN POINT BEING MADE HERE IS THAT
NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS SHIFT.

STARTING WITH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST ~0.05-0.10" LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST RECEIVING
BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS...IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THREE OR FOUR COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN THERE...IT ONLY PROVIDES A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE SETS
PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.01-0.05"
RANGE SOUTH OF I-80...WITH MAYBE 0.01" FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WHICH ADVERTISED ~0.20" OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT WE WILL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAIN INDICATIONS THAT THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA COULD ATTEMPT A MOVE BACK TO NORTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAM...THUS HELPING PROMOTE A ROUND
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...PRIMARILY
OUR SOUTHEAST. THAT SAID...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
MODEL CURRENTLY SUGGESTING SUCH A SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM AND EC
PROVIDING MUCH LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES. AND WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING NEAR 20 TIMES AS MUCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE ODD ONE OUT COMPARED TO THE OTHER SETS
OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO CONSIDER THE GFS
SOLUTION...AND TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
PROVIDES SATURDAY NIGHT LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.15"
ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES...AND IN THE 0.04-0.10" ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THIS IS A SUBTLE DECREASE IN LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SHIFTS.

EVEN IF THE PRIMARY AXIS OF OMEGA DOES MAKE A MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL
THEN MAKE A SWIFT PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...THUS BRINING AN END TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
CWA BY LATE MORNING. TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES
JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH AGAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
COMPARED TO THE ~0.10" WE HAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...ALL SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS WEEKEND. SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS SNOW- WATER RATIOS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20:1...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS.

TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW-
WATER RATIOS PROVIDES 0.5-1.0" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE POSITION
OF THE OMEGA AXIS COULD PUSH KHJH CLOSER TO AN INCH. FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 1-2 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BEAVER CITY TO HASTINGS AND OSCEOLA...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
FARTHER NORTHWEST. AND THEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE
~0.1" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THAT MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
~0.5" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. COMBINING THESE THREE PERIODS
PROVIDES STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE TO HEBRON
CLOSER TO THREE INCHES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WHAT SEEMED LIKE A SLAM
DUNK ADVISORY 12-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND
THUS...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT SO THE DAY SHIFT
CAN CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUPBERBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-50% POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TRY
AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRI NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BECOME SE BY DAWN.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

FRI: VFR WITH SOME HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS OFF TO THE S AND W.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 13K FT...BUT
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE. S WINDS UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

FRI EVE: VFR WITH HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS POSSIBLE. S WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 270552
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRI NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BECOME SE BY DAWN.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

FRI: VFR WITH SOME HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS OFF TO THE S AND W.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 13K FT...BUT
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE. S WINDS UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

FRI EVE: VFR WITH HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS POSSIBLE. S WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 270552
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRI NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BECOME SE BY DAWN.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

FRI: VFR WITH SOME HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS OFF TO THE S AND W.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 13K FT...BUT
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE. S WINDS UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

FRI EVE: VFR WITH HIGH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS POSSIBLE. S WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 262330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. CLODUS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 262330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. CLODUS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 262137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
337 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 261733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 261733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TODAY: A FEW STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT COULD DRIFT THRU UNTIL
15Z...OTHERWISE SKC. N WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS
ENDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ FROM THE NE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY TURN CALM AFTER 06Z BEFORE ORGANIZING FROM
THE SE LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 261127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TODAY: A FEW STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT COULD DRIFT THRU UNTIL
15Z...OTHERWISE SKC. N WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS
ENDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ FROM THE NE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY TURN CALM AFTER 06Z BEFORE ORGANIZING FROM
THE SE LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 252153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 252153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20 RANGE FOR
THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED THE NAM FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP
A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST NOT
BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A LITTLE MORE SKY
COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE. WIND SPEED
COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES NEARER...MAYBE AS
CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO DROP OFF QUITE A
BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WE
COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE
CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR -10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE
CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY
COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR US
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE THAN ONE ROUND
OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD PLACE MORE
SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL KNOW...THINGS MAY
TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE 3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I
DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR
US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME
TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS
WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED GRIDS.
THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING SNOW ON
THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY
MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20 RANGE FOR
THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED THE NAM FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP
A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST NOT
BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A LITTLE MORE SKY
COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE. WIND SPEED
COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES NEARER...MAYBE AS
CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO DROP OFF QUITE A
BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WE
COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE
CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR -10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE
CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY
COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR US
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE THAN ONE ROUND
OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD PLACE MORE
SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL KNOW...THINGS MAY
TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE 3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I
DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR
US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME
TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS
WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED GRIDS.
THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING SNOW ON
THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY
MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 250955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 250955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP
THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
BRING FORTH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SFC
LOW WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND
BROKEN BOW AT DAY BREAK...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS BY NOON. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM40 INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (900-850MB)
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.10
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TO BELOW FREEZING
AND THUS IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A WARM LAYER RIGHT NEAR THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
MOST AREAS SEEING A LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE NEAR SFC AREA SATURATES AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN.
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS A 1 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE UP TO 1 INCH. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXIT OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALTHOUGH IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO TALK ANY SPECIFIC
TIMING/AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE SECRET THAT
THE "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD ARE THE VARIOUS MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES THAT NOT ONLY INCLUDE THE WEEKEND AS BEFORE...BUT NOW
EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE
SNOW CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW "WAVES" WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LULL OR TWO IN BETWEEN. WE ARE STILL 24-48 HOURS AWAY FROM
PUBLISHING OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR PRODUCTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA...BUT IF (AND YES A BIG "IF") THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR CURRENT TRENDS...WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 2-6" POTENTIAL FOR THE SATURDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE...AS OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
THE LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO OFFER A LESS-
CONCERNING PICTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. BECAUSE NOT EVERY MODEL IS IN
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT...POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE
STILL NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH SOME "LIKELY" 60S
ARE NOW ADVERTISED MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO HIT THE WINTRY
"PANIC BUTTON" JUST YET.

OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE WEEKEND-MONDAY SNOWFALL
DETAILS ...TEMPERATURE-WISE THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN SOLIDLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR LATE FEB-EARLY MARCH ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER 20S PREVAILING MOST AREAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD 30S FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
THAT APPEAR TO BE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANDIDATES (-20 OR
COLDER)...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TO -20 VALUES
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WIND MOST PLACES SHOULD DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

TAKING A BIT BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL LOOK AT THE DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NOT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE "SYSTEM NUMBER 1" THIS
WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT BY SUNSET
THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD POSSIBLY BE LINGERING IS A CHANCE OF
NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...WITH THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL ENHANCED IF
IN FACT A FAIRLY SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT IN A FAVORABLY COLD DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER. IN
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LINGERED A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGER
STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE CWA ON
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
A BRISK 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES. ACTUAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AIMED SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST NEB
ZONES...WITH MORE-SO 10-13 IN KS ZONES. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 WILL BE COMMON LATE IN
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF THE TRI CITIES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
PRECIP-FREE BUT VERY COLD 24 HOURS...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CORE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH ONLY
TEENS IN MOST AREAS AND MAYBE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY CONTINUED STEADY NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BREEZES THURSDAY NIGHT TURN LIGHTER
AS THEY SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTUAL LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN
COLDER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE AND GENERALLY AIMED A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AGAIN KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL KEEP QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE HIGHS POSSIBLY
NUDGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: HAVE LARGELY ALREADY COVERED THIS
48-HOUR MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN ABOVE...SO PLEASE REFER TO IT
AGAIN. SNOW COULD VERY WELL OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN EARNEST DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES
MORE SO THAN NORTHERN ONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: IN A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WE NOW HAVE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: KEPT THIS LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS
VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP
THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
BRING FORTH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SFC
LOW WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND
BROKEN BOW AT DAY BREAK...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS BY NOON. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM40 INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (900-850MB)
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.10
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TO BELOW FREEZING
AND THUS IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A WARM LAYER RIGHT NEAR THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
MOST AREAS SEEING A LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE NEAR SFC AREA SATURATES AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN.
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS A 1 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE UP TO 1 INCH. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXIT OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALTHOUGH IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO TALK ANY SPECIFIC
TIMING/AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE SECRET THAT
THE "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD ARE THE VARIOUS MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES THAT NOT ONLY INCLUDE THE WEEKEND AS BEFORE...BUT NOW
EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE
SNOW CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW "WAVES" WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LULL OR TWO IN BETWEEN. WE ARE STILL 24-48 HOURS AWAY FROM
PUBLISHING OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR PRODUCTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA...BUT IF (AND YES A BIG "IF") THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR CURRENT TRENDS...WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 2-6" POTENTIAL FOR THE SATURDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE...AS OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
THE LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO OFFER A LESS-
CONCERNING PICTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. BECAUSE NOT EVERY MODEL IS IN
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT...POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE
STILL NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH SOME "LIKELY" 60S
ARE NOW ADVERTISED MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO HIT THE WINTRY
"PANIC BUTTON" JUST YET.

OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE WEEKEND-MONDAY SNOWFALL
DETAILS ...TEMPERATURE-WISE THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN SOLIDLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR LATE FEB-EARLY MARCH ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER 20S PREVAILING MOST AREAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD 30S FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
THAT APPEAR TO BE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANDIDATES (-20 OR
COLDER)...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TO -20 VALUES
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WIND MOST PLACES SHOULD DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

TAKING A BIT BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL LOOK AT THE DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NOT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE "SYSTEM NUMBER 1" THIS
WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT BY SUNSET
THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD POSSIBLY BE LINGERING IS A CHANCE OF
NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...WITH THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL ENHANCED IF
IN FACT A FAIRLY SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT IN A FAVORABLY COLD DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER. IN
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LINGERED A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGER
STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE CWA ON
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
A BRISK 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES. ACTUAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AIMED SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST NEB
ZONES...WITH MORE-SO 10-13 IN KS ZONES. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 WILL BE COMMON LATE IN
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF THE TRI CITIES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
PRECIP-FREE BUT VERY COLD 24 HOURS...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CORE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH ONLY
TEENS IN MOST AREAS AND MAYBE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY CONTINUED STEADY NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BREEZES THURSDAY NIGHT TURN LIGHTER
AS THEY SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTUAL LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN
COLDER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE AND GENERALLY AIMED A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AGAIN KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL KEEP QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE HIGHS POSSIBLY
NUDGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: HAVE LARGELY ALREADY COVERED THIS
48-HOUR MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN ABOVE...SO PLEASE REFER TO IT
AGAIN. SNOW COULD VERY WELL OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN EARNEST DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES
MORE SO THAN NORTHERN ONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: IN A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WE NOW HAVE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: KEPT THIS LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS
VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




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