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000
FXUS63 KGID 251745
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA INTO KS...AND
HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW. ITS A
PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
LIGHT...VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY HAVE A NWRLY COMPONENT.  THE
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
COOL MORE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM OBS SHOWING TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50. COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO KS...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NWRLY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO MORE SWRLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA
THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ON THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MT/SD/ND/WY BORDER SLIDING S/SE THROUGH THE NE/SD/IA AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IS MOVING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF
MN/IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. MODELS NOT
SHOWING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER /ESP IN THE NERN COUNTIES/...BUT
HIGHS FOR MANY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN THE SW.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE COMPLETELY CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.
INHERITED A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA FOR LATE
TONIGHT...MADE NO CHANGES TO THAT...THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS/GUIDANCE
AGREE WITH HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WILL BE...THANKS IN PART TO THOSE
WINDS NOT GOING CALM. THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ITS OCCURRENCE SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE. DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
INSERTION OF A MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
HWO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BY LATE-OCTOBER STANDARDS...THERE REALLY SHOULDN/T BE MUCH FOR
MOST FOLKS TO COMPLAIN ABOUT OVER THESE 6 DAYS AS A WHOLE. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS...THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING DRY (INCLUDING HALLOWEEN)...AND EVEN THE ONE 24 HOUR
PERIOD THAT DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN (MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)
HINGES ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
SETUP...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO SEE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OUT OF IT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THESE 6 IS LOOKING TO
BE RIGHT OFF THE BAT SUNDAY...WHICH IN THEORY COULD BE THE LAST
DAY OF 80S THIS YEAR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. BUT EVEN AFTER
SUNDAY...ITS NOT LIKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR/NEWSWORTHY COOL DOWN
ARRIVES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HIGHS SETTLE INTO A PATTERN OF
GENERALLY A MID-50S TO MID-UPPER 60S RANGE ON MOST OF THESE
DAYS...WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL
NORMALS/AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE OVER COMING
DAYS...THE CURRENT CANDIDATE FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 6 IS
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...WITH HIGHS PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID-
50S TO AROUND 60 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER "EVENTS" THAT MAY BECOME WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS (HWOGID)...REALLY
THE ONLY ONE OF NOTE MAY BE RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY MORNING IF IN FACT
IMPACTFUL FOG CARRIES OVER FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD COVERED
ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW BIG OF A DEAL THIS FOG MIGHT
BE...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LIKELY
THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS MONDAY...BUT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER 25 MPH THIS ISN/T ALL
THAT CONCERNING EITHER. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS OVERLAPS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

GETTING INTO GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOURS REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP MENTION CWA-WIDE AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT SUPPOSE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY NEED WATCHED JUST
IN CASE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER MIGHT TRY SNEAKING IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE NUMBER ONE FORECAST ISSUE SUNDAY
PROBABLY INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH THE MID- LATE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST VISIBILITY FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE
SREF/NAM ARE TRENDING MORE CONCERNING REGARDING DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN HOW FICKLE OF A BUSINESS FOG FORECASTING CAN
BE (ESPECIALLY 24+ HOURS OUT) WOULD RATHER NOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY YET...AND INSTEAD LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS HOPEFULLY GET A
BETTER HANDLE. FOR NOW...WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN A GENERAL "AREAS
OF FOG" MENTION IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE THROUGH 16Z/11AM...AS ANY
FOG THAT FORMS COULD BE PRETTY SLOW TO LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR-NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. AS FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PICTURE...BROAD QUASI ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MODEST-LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF AN ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIALLY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGES
OF A MODESTLY- STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. TEMP-
WISE...SUNDAY HIGHS ARE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
(OR SLOWLY) STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HERE...RUNNING WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO THAT ANY LOW
CLOUDS WOULD POTENTIALLY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
CWA AND THUS KEPT HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID-70S HERE WHILE WARMING
MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOW-80S...WHICH MAY NOT
EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAS ACTUALLY
ONE OF THE BIGGER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...AS LOWS WERE KNOCKED DOWN 3-5
DEGREES...PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE LOW 50S.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS THE ONLY
24-HOUR PERIOD TO CONTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP...AND BARRING
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ITS LOOKING QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. THE GENERAL
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
LOCALLY...KEPT THE FORECAST AS A MIX OF ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES. THAT BEING SAID...ITS STILL A BIT SOON TO PINPOINT A
"GUARANTEED DRY" PORTION OF THIS 24 HOURS SO THUS HAVE CONTINUED
TO BROAD-BRUSH THIS ENTIRE TIME WITH THESE MEAGER PRECIP-CHANCES.
LIKELY THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE IN THE
FORM OF 15-25 MPH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SLOWLY- FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MEANING HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY BE REACHED AROUND MID-DAY MOST AREAS. MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGHS...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S FAR NORTH TO LOW
70S SOUTH.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 48-HOUR BLOCK BRINGS A
RETURN TO FAIRLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR WED NIGHT AS THE ECMWF
AT LEAST GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY
APPEARS TO FEATURE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN MONDAY...WITH
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. IN TURN...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FROM ONLY
NEAR-60 TUESDAY TO MID-UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE FINAL 36 HOURS OF THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER FOR BEING 5-6 DAYS AWAY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS PAINT A
SIMILAR GENERAL SCENARIO OF BUILDING A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER
RIDGE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY THESE MODELS VARY ON THE
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
WIND/TEMPERATURE DETAILS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY BUT COOLER 50S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT FRIDAY HIGHS COULD
ACTUALLY TREND A BIT COOLER THAN THIS...AND THUS ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS ISN/T THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251745
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA INTO KS...AND
HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW. ITS A
PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
LIGHT...VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY HAVE A NWRLY COMPONENT.  THE
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
COOL MORE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM OBS SHOWING TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50. COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO KS...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NWRLY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO MORE SWRLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA
THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ON THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MT/SD/ND/WY BORDER SLIDING S/SE THROUGH THE NE/SD/IA AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IS MOVING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF
MN/IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. MODELS NOT
SHOWING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER /ESP IN THE NERN COUNTIES/...BUT
HIGHS FOR MANY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN THE SW.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE COMPLETELY CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.
INHERITED A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA FOR LATE
TONIGHT...MADE NO CHANGES TO THAT...THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS/GUIDANCE
AGREE WITH HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WILL BE...THANKS IN PART TO THOSE
WINDS NOT GOING CALM. THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ITS OCCURRENCE SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE. DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
INSERTION OF A MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
HWO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BY LATE-OCTOBER STANDARDS...THERE REALLY SHOULDN/T BE MUCH FOR
MOST FOLKS TO COMPLAIN ABOUT OVER THESE 6 DAYS AS A WHOLE. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS...THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING DRY (INCLUDING HALLOWEEN)...AND EVEN THE ONE 24 HOUR
PERIOD THAT DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN (MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)
HINGES ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
SETUP...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO SEE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OUT OF IT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THESE 6 IS LOOKING TO
BE RIGHT OFF THE BAT SUNDAY...WHICH IN THEORY COULD BE THE LAST
DAY OF 80S THIS YEAR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. BUT EVEN AFTER
SUNDAY...ITS NOT LIKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR/NEWSWORTHY COOL DOWN
ARRIVES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HIGHS SETTLE INTO A PATTERN OF
GENERALLY A MID-50S TO MID-UPPER 60S RANGE ON MOST OF THESE
DAYS...WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL
NORMALS/AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE OVER COMING
DAYS...THE CURRENT CANDIDATE FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 6 IS
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...WITH HIGHS PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID-
50S TO AROUND 60 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER "EVENTS" THAT MAY BECOME WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS (HWOGID)...REALLY
THE ONLY ONE OF NOTE MAY BE RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY MORNING IF IN FACT
IMPACTFUL FOG CARRIES OVER FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD COVERED
ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW BIG OF A DEAL THIS FOG MIGHT
BE...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LIKELY
THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS MONDAY...BUT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER 25 MPH THIS ISN/T ALL
THAT CONCERNING EITHER. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS OVERLAPS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

GETTING INTO GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOURS REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP MENTION CWA-WIDE AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT SUPPOSE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY NEED WATCHED JUST
IN CASE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER MIGHT TRY SNEAKING IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE NUMBER ONE FORECAST ISSUE SUNDAY
PROBABLY INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH THE MID- LATE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST VISIBILITY FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE
SREF/NAM ARE TRENDING MORE CONCERNING REGARDING DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN HOW FICKLE OF A BUSINESS FOG FORECASTING CAN
BE (ESPECIALLY 24+ HOURS OUT) WOULD RATHER NOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY YET...AND INSTEAD LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS HOPEFULLY GET A
BETTER HANDLE. FOR NOW...WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN A GENERAL "AREAS
OF FOG" MENTION IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE THROUGH 16Z/11AM...AS ANY
FOG THAT FORMS COULD BE PRETTY SLOW TO LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR-NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. AS FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PICTURE...BROAD QUASI ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MODEST-LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF AN ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIALLY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGES
OF A MODESTLY- STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. TEMP-
WISE...SUNDAY HIGHS ARE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
(OR SLOWLY) STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HERE...RUNNING WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO THAT ANY LOW
CLOUDS WOULD POTENTIALLY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
CWA AND THUS KEPT HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID-70S HERE WHILE WARMING
MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOW-80S...WHICH MAY NOT
EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAS ACTUALLY
ONE OF THE BIGGER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...AS LOWS WERE KNOCKED DOWN 3-5
DEGREES...PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE LOW 50S.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS THE ONLY
24-HOUR PERIOD TO CONTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP...AND BARRING
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ITS LOOKING QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. THE GENERAL
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
LOCALLY...KEPT THE FORECAST AS A MIX OF ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES. THAT BEING SAID...ITS STILL A BIT SOON TO PINPOINT A
"GUARANTEED DRY" PORTION OF THIS 24 HOURS SO THUS HAVE CONTINUED
TO BROAD-BRUSH THIS ENTIRE TIME WITH THESE MEAGER PRECIP-CHANCES.
LIKELY THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE IN THE
FORM OF 15-25 MPH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SLOWLY- FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MEANING HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY BE REACHED AROUND MID-DAY MOST AREAS. MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGHS...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S FAR NORTH TO LOW
70S SOUTH.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 48-HOUR BLOCK BRINGS A
RETURN TO FAIRLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR WED NIGHT AS THE ECMWF
AT LEAST GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY
APPEARS TO FEATURE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN MONDAY...WITH
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. IN TURN...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FROM ONLY
NEAR-60 TUESDAY TO MID-UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE FINAL 36 HOURS OF THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER FOR BEING 5-6 DAYS AWAY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS PAINT A
SIMILAR GENERAL SCENARIO OF BUILDING A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER
RIDGE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY THESE MODELS VARY ON THE
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
WIND/TEMPERATURE DETAILS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY BUT COOLER 50S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT FRIDAY HIGHS COULD
ACTUALLY TREND A BIT COOLER THAN THIS...AND THUS ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS ISN/T THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA INTO KS...AND
HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW. ITS A
PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
LIGHT...VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY HAVE A NWRLY COMPONENT.  THE
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
COOL MORE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM OBS SHOWING TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50. COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO KS...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NWRLY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO MORE SWRLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA
THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ON THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MT/SD/ND/WY BORDER SLIDING S/SE THROUGH THE NE/SD/IA AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IS MOVING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF
MN/IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. MODELS NOT
SHOWING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER /ESP IN THE NERN COUNTIES/...BUT
HIGHS FOR MANY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN THE SW.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE COMPLETELY CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.
INHERITED A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA FOR LATE
TONIGHT...MADE NO CHANGES TO THAT...THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS/GUIDANCE
AGREE WITH HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WILL BE...THANKS IN PART TO THOSE
WINDS NOT GOING CALM. THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ITS OCCURRENCE SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE. DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
INSERTION OF A MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
HWO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BY LATE-OCTOBER STANDARDS...THERE REALLY SHOULDN/T BE MUCH FOR
MOST FOLKS TO COMPLAIN ABOUT OVER THESE 6 DAYS AS A WHOLE. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS...THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING DRY (INCLUDING HALLOWEEN)...AND EVEN THE ONE 24 HOUR
PERIOD THAT DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN (MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)
HINGES ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
SETUP...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO SEE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OUT OF IT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THESE 6 IS LOOKING TO
BE RIGHT OFF THE BAT SUNDAY...WHICH IN THEORY COULD BE THE LAST
DAY OF 80S THIS YEAR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. BUT EVEN AFTER
SUNDAY...ITS NOT LIKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR/NEWSWORTHY COOL DOWN
ARRIVES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HIGHS SETTLE INTO A PATTERN OF
GENERALLY A MID-50S TO MID-UPPER 60S RANGE ON MOST OF THESE
DAYS...WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL
NORMALS/AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE OVER COMING
DAYS...THE CURRENT CANDIDATE FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 6 IS
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...WITH HIGHS PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID-
50S TO AROUND 60 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER "EVENTS" THAT MAY BECOME WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS (HWOGID)...REALLY
THE ONLY ONE OF NOTE MAY BE RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY MORNING IF IN FACT
IMPACTFUL FOG CARRIES OVER FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD COVERED
ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW BIG OF A DEAL THIS FOG MIGHT
BE...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LIKELY
THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS MONDAY...BUT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER 25 MPH THIS ISN/T ALL
THAT CONCERNING EITHER. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS OVERLAPS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

GETTING INTO GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOURS REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP MENTION CWA-WIDE AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT SUPPOSE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY NEED WATCHED JUST
IN CASE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER MIGHT TRY SNEAKING IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE NUMBER ONE FORECAST ISSUE SUNDAY
PROBABLY INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH THE MID- LATE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST VISIBILITY FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE
SREF/NAM ARE TRENDING MORE CONCERNING REGARDING DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN HOW FICKLE OF A BUSINESS FOG FORECASTING CAN
BE (ESPECIALLY 24+ HOURS OUT) WOULD RATHER NOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY YET...AND INSTEAD LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS HOPEFULLY GET A
BETTER HANDLE. FOR NOW...WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN A GENERAL "AREAS
OF FOG" MENTION IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE THROUGH 16Z/11AM...AS ANY
FOG THAT FORMS COULD BE PRETTY SLOW TO LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR-NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. AS FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PICTURE...BROAD QUASI ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MODEST-LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF AN ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIALLY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGES
OF A MODESTLY- STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. TEMP-
WISE...SUNDAY HIGHS ARE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
(OR SLOWLY) STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HERE...RUNNING WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO THAT ANY LOW
CLOUDS WOULD POTENTIALLY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
CWA AND THUS KEPT HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID-70S HERE WHILE WARMING
MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOW-80S...WHICH MAY NOT
EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAS ACTUALLY
ONE OF THE BIGGER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...AS LOWS WERE KNOCKED DOWN 3-5
DEGREES...PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE LOW 50S.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS THE ONLY
24-HOUR PERIOD TO CONTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP...AND BARRING
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ITS LOOKING QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. THE GENERAL
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
LOCALLY...KEPT THE FORECAST AS A MIX OF ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES. THAT BEING SAID...ITS STILL A BIT SOON TO PINPOINT A
"GUARANTEED DRY" PORTION OF THIS 24 HOURS SO THUS HAVE CONTINUED
TO BROAD-BRUSH THIS ENTIRE TIME WITH THESE MEAGER PRECIP-CHANCES.
LIKELY THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE IN THE
FORM OF 15-25 MPH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SLOWLY- FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MEANING HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY BE REACHED AROUND MID-DAY MOST AREAS. MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGHS...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S FAR NORTH TO LOW
70S SOUTH.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 48-HOUR BLOCK BRINGS A
RETURN TO FAIRLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR WED NIGHT AS THE ECMWF
AT LEAST GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY
APPEARS TO FEATURE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN MONDAY...WITH
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. IN TURN...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FROM ONLY
NEAR-60 TUESDAY TO MID-UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE FINAL 36 HOURS OF THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER FOR BEING 5-6 DAYS AWAY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS PAINT A
SIMILAR GENERAL SCENARIO OF BUILDING A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER
RIDGE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY THESE MODELS VARY ON THE
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
WIND/TEMPERATURE DETAILS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY BUT COOLER 50S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT FRIDAY HIGHS COULD
ACTUALLY TREND A BIT COOLER THAN THIS...AND THUS ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS ISN/T THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS STILL GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT STAYING THAT WAY DECREASES GETTING
INTO THE LAST FEW HOURS ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE/MODELS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFFECTING BOTH
TERMINAL AREAS...AND AT LEAST HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THIS
TAF. UPCOMING FORECASTS WILL HAVE NEWER MODEL DATA AND CAN SEE HOW
THINGS TREND AND DETERMINE IF WORSE CONDITIONS ARE WARRANTED. AS
FAR AS WINDS GO...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 251132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA INTO KS...AND
HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW. ITS A
PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
LIGHT...VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY HAVE A NWRLY COMPONENT.  THE
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
COOL MORE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM OBS SHOWING TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50. COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO KS...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NWRLY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO MORE SWRLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA
THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ON THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MT/SD/ND/WY BORDER SLIDING S/SE THROUGH THE NE/SD/IA AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IS MOVING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF
MN/IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. MODELS NOT
SHOWING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER /ESP IN THE NERN COUNTIES/...BUT
HIGHS FOR MANY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN THE SW.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE COMPLETELY CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S.
INHERITED A MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA FOR LATE
TONIGHT...MADE NO CHANGES TO THAT...THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS/GUIDANCE
AGREE WITH HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WILL BE...THANKS IN PART TO THOSE
WINDS NOT GOING CALM. THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ITS OCCURRENCE SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE. DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER
INSERTION OF A MENTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
HWO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BY LATE-OCTOBER STANDARDS...THERE REALLY SHOULDN/T BE MUCH FOR
MOST FOLKS TO COMPLAIN ABOUT OVER THESE 6 DAYS AS A WHOLE. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS...THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING DRY (INCLUDING HALLOWEEN)...AND EVEN THE ONE 24 HOUR
PERIOD THAT DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN (MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)
HINGES ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
SETUP...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO SEE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OUT OF IT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THESE 6 IS LOOKING TO
BE RIGHT OFF THE BAT SUNDAY...WHICH IN THEORY COULD BE THE LAST
DAY OF 80S THIS YEAR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. BUT EVEN AFTER
SUNDAY...ITS NOT LIKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR/NEWSWORTHY COOL DOWN
ARRIVES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HIGHS SETTLE INTO A PATTERN OF
GENERALLY A MID-50S TO MID-UPPER 60S RANGE ON MOST OF THESE
DAYS...WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL
NORMALS/AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE OVER COMING
DAYS...THE CURRENT CANDIDATE FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 6 IS
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...WITH HIGHS PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID-
50S TO AROUND 60 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER "EVENTS" THAT MAY BECOME WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS (HWOGID)...REALLY
THE ONLY ONE OF NOTE MAY BE RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY MORNING IF IN FACT
IMPACTFUL FOG CARRIES OVER FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD COVERED
ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW BIG OF A DEAL THIS FOG MIGHT
BE...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LIKELY
THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS MONDAY...BUT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER 25 MPH THIS ISN/T ALL
THAT CONCERNING EITHER. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS OVERLAPS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

GETTING INTO GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOURS REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP MENTION CWA-WIDE AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT SUPPOSE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY NEED WATCHED JUST
IN CASE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER MIGHT TRY SNEAKING IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE NUMBER ONE FORECAST ISSUE SUNDAY
PROBABLY INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH THE MID- LATE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST VISIBILITY FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE
SREF/NAM ARE TRENDING MORE CONCERNING REGARDING DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN HOW FICKLE OF A BUSINESS FOG FORECASTING CAN
BE (ESPECIALLY 24+ HOURS OUT) WOULD RATHER NOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY YET...AND INSTEAD LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS HOPEFULLY GET A
BETTER HANDLE. FOR NOW...WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN A GENERAL "AREAS
OF FOG" MENTION IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE THROUGH 16Z/11AM...AS ANY
FOG THAT FORMS COULD BE PRETTY SLOW TO LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR-NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. AS FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PICTURE...BROAD QUASI ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MODEST-LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF AN ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIALLY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGES
OF A MODESTLY- STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. TEMP-
WISE...SUNDAY HIGHS ARE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
(OR SLOWLY) STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HERE...RUNNING WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO THAT ANY LOW
CLOUDS WOULD POTENTIALLY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
CWA AND THUS KEPT HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID-70S HERE WHILE WARMING
MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOW-80S...WHICH MAY NOT
EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAS ACTUALLY
ONE OF THE BIGGER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...AS LOWS WERE KNOCKED DOWN 3-5
DEGREES...PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE LOW 50S.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS THE ONLY
24-HOUR PERIOD TO CONTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP...AND BARRING
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ITS LOOKING QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. THE GENERAL
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
LOCALLY...KEPT THE FORECAST AS A MIX OF ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES. THAT BEING SAID...ITS STILL A BIT SOON TO PINPOINT A
"GUARANTEED DRY" PORTION OF THIS 24 HOURS SO THUS HAVE CONTINUED
TO BROAD-BRUSH THIS ENTIRE TIME WITH THESE MEAGER PRECIP-CHANCES.
LIKELY THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE IN THE
FORM OF 15-25 MPH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SLOWLY- FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MEANING HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY BE REACHED AROUND MID-DAY MOST AREAS. MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGHS...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S FAR NORTH TO LOW
70S SOUTH.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 48-HOUR BLOCK BRINGS A
RETURN TO FAIRLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR WED NIGHT AS THE ECMWF
AT LEAST GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY
APPEARS TO FEATURE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN MONDAY...WITH
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. IN TURN...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FROM ONLY
NEAR-60 TUESDAY TO MID-UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE FINAL 36 HOURS OF THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER FOR BEING 5-6 DAYS AWAY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS PAINT A
SIMILAR GENERAL SCENARIO OF BUILDING A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER
RIDGE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY THESE MODELS VARY ON THE
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
WIND/TEMPERATURE DETAILS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY BUT COOLER 50S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT FRIDAY HIGHS COULD
ACTUALLY TREND A BIT COOLER THAN THIS...AND THUS ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS ISN/T THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS STILL GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT STAYING THAT WAY DECREASES GETTING
INTO THE LAST FEW HOURS ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE/MODELS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFFECTING BOTH
TERMINAL AREAS...AND AT LEAST HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THIS
TAF. UPCOMING FORECASTS WILL HAVE NEWER MODEL DATA AND CAN SEE HOW
THINGS TREND AND DETERMINE IF WORSE CONDITIONS ARE WARRANTED. AS
FAR AS WINDS GO...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 250931
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
431 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA INTO KS...AND
HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NW. ITS A
PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED FRONT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
LIGHT...VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY HAVE A NWRLY COMPONENT.  THE
CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
COOL MORE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM OBS SHOWING TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50. COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO KS...BUT
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  FLOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM NWRLY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO MORE SWRLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA
THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ON THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MT/SD/ND/WY BORDER SLIDING S/SE THROUGH THE NE/SD/IA AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IS MOVING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF
MN/IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH. MODELS NOT
SHOWING A NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER /ESP IN THE NERN COUNTIES/...BUT
HIGHS FOR MANY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN THE SW.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG. NOT LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE COMPLETELY CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK WELL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S. INHERITED A
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...MADE NO
CHANGES TO THAT...THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH HOW MUCH
IMPACT THERE WILL BE...THANKS IN PART TO THOSE WINDS NOT GOING CALM.
THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ITS OCCURRENCE
SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE.
DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INSERTION OF A MENTION OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE HWO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS
TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BY LATE-OCTOBER STANDARDS...THERE REALLY SHOULDN/T BE MUCH FOR
MOST FOLKS TO COMPLAIN ABOUT OVER THESE 6 DAYS AS A WHOLE. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS...THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING DRY (INCLUDING HALLOWEEN)...AND EVEN THE ONE 24 HOUR
PERIOD THAT DOES CONTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN (MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)
HINGES ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
SETUP...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA MAY BE LUCKY TO SEE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OUT OF IT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY OF THESE 6 IS LOOKING TO
BE RIGHT OFF THE BAT SUNDAY...WHICH IN THEORY COULD BE THE LAST
DAY OF 80S THIS YEAR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. BUT EVEN AFTER
SUNDAY...ITS NOT LIKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR/NEWSWORTHY COOL DOWN
ARRIVES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS HIGHS SETTLE INTO A PATTERN OF
GENERALLY A MID-50S TO MID-UPPER 60S RANGE ON MOST OF THESE
DAYS...WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL
NORMALS/AVERAGES. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE OVER COMING
DAYS...THE CURRENT CANDIDATE FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 6 IS
FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...WITH HIGHS PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID-
50S TO AROUND 60 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER "EVENTS" THAT MAY BECOME WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS (HWOGID)...REALLY
THE ONLY ONE OF NOTE MAY BE RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY MORNING IF IN FACT
IMPACTFUL FOG CARRIES OVER FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD COVERED
ABOVE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW BIG OF A DEAL THIS FOG MIGHT
BE...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LIKELY
THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IS MONDAY...BUT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER 25 MPH THIS ISN/T ALL
THAT CONCERNING EITHER. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH VEGETATION IS DRYING OUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS OVERLAPS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AND WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

GETTING INTO GREATER METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL AND TAKING IT IN 24-48
HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS 24 HOURS REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP MENTION CWA-WIDE AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS...BUT SUPPOSE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY NEED WATCHED JUST
IN CASE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER MIGHT TRY SNEAKING IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE NUMBER ONE FORECAST ISSUE SUNDAY
PROBABLY INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
THROUGH THE MID- LATE MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST VISIBILITY FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM THE
SREF/NAM ARE TRENDING MORE CONCERNING REGARDING DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN HOW FICKLE OF A BUSINESS FOG FORECASTING CAN
BE (ESPECIALLY 24+ HOURS OUT) WOULD RATHER NOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY YET...AND INSTEAD LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS HOPEFULLY GET A
BETTER HANDLE. FOR NOW...WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN A GENERAL "AREAS
OF FOG" MENTION IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE THROUGH 16Z/11AM...AS ANY
FOG THAT FORMS COULD BE PRETTY SLOW TO LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR-NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. AS FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PICTURE...BROAD QUASI ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MODEST-LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF AN ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIALLY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGES
OF A MODESTLY- STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. TEMP-
WISE...SUNDAY HIGHS ARE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
(OR SLOWLY) STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HERE...RUNNING WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO THAT ANY LOW
CLOUDS WOULD POTENTIALLY HANG ON LONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
CWA AND THUS KEPT HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID-70S HERE WHILE WARMING
MUCH OF THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOW-80S...WHICH MAY NOT
EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAS ACTUALLY
ONE OF THE BIGGER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...AS LOWS WERE KNOCKED DOWN 3-5
DEGREES...PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE LOW 50S.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS THE ONLY
24-HOUR PERIOD TO CONTAIN A MENTION OF PRECIP...AND BARRING
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ITS LOOKING QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE. THE GENERAL
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
LOCALLY...KEPT THE FORECAST AS A MIX OF ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES. THAT BEING SAID...ITS STILL A BIT SOON TO PINPOINT A
"GUARANTEED DRY" PORTION OF THIS 24 HOURS SO THUS HAVE CONTINUED
TO BROAD-BRUSH THIS ENTIRE TIME WITH THESE MEAGER PRECIP-CHANCES.
LIKELY THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE NOTICEABLE IN THE
FORM OF 15-25 MPH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN SLOWLY- FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MEANING HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY BE REACHED AROUND MID-DAY MOST AREAS. MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO HIGHS...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM LOW 60S FAR NORTH TO LOW
70S SOUTH.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS 48-HOUR BLOCK BRINGS A
RETURN TO FAIRLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR WED NIGHT AS THE ECMWF
AT LEAST GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY
APPEARS TO FEATURE LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAN MONDAY...WITH
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. IN TURN...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FROM ONLY
NEAR-60 TUESDAY TO MID-UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME...THE FINAL 36 HOURS OF THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER FOR BEING 5-6 DAYS AWAY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS PAINT A
SIMILAR GENERAL SCENARIO OF BUILDING A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER
RIDGE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY THESE MODELS VARY ON THE
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL
WIND/TEMPERATURE DETAILS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY BUT COOLER 50S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT FRIDAY HIGHS COULD
ACTUALLY TREND A BIT COOLER THAN THIS...AND THUS ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS ISN/T THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEPS WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS MAY TOP OUT
AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 250527
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIRRUS HAVE BEEN THINNING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
WARM UP. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WARM ADVECTION...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

WE KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL
BE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET AHEAD OF A BROAD
TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME FOG. I INCREASED DEW POINTS FROM
NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S. THE SREF INDICATES A DECENT SHOT AT SOME FOG
WITH A LIKELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SEEMS MORE
FAVORED IN OUR WEST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I PUT FOG EVERYWHERE...SINCE
THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IN OUR EAST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
THOROUGHLY MIX THE FOG. I ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE HIGHER
CHANCE OF STRATUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A BIG CAVEAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AND
WILL THIS AFFECT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. I WENT A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THEM A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY ENTERS THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
WITH THE QUICKER SPEED OF THE WAVE...OUR CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT HIGH...AND IF WE DO GET RAIN...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT. I
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE.

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS ALL WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE GFS INDICATES THAT WE COULD GET A
QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT KICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FOR NOW...I
WILL KEEP THIS DRY AS THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE PASSING TO THE EAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND WILL GIVE US NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM...MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. I KICKED UP THE BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEPS WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS MAY TOP OUT
AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 242319
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIRRUS HAVE BEEN THINNING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
WARM UP. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WARM ADVECTION...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

WE KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL
BE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET AHEAD OF A BROAD
TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME FOG. I INCREASED DEW POINTS FROM
NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S. THE SREF INDICATES A DECENT SHOT AT SOME FOG
WITH A LIKELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SEEMS MORE
FAVORED IN OUR WEST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I PUT FOG EVERYWHERE...SINCE
THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IN OUR EAST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
THOROUGHLY MIX THE FOG. I ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE HIGHER
CHANCE OF STRATUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A BIG CAVEAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AND
WILL THIS AFFECT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. I WENT A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THEM A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY ENTERS THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
WITH THE QUICKER SPEED OF THE WAVE...OUR CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT HIGH...AND IF WE DO GET RAIN...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT. I
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE.

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS ALL WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE GFS INDICATES THAT WE COULD GET A
QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT KICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FOR NOW...I
WILL KEEP THIS DRY AS THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE PASSING TO THE EAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND WILL GIVE US NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM...MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. I KICKED UP THE BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 242035
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIRRUS HAVE BEEN THINNING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
WARM UP. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WARM ADVECTION...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

WE KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL
BE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET AHEAD OF A BROAD
TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME FOG. I INCREASED DEW POINTS FROM
NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S. THE SREF INDICATES A DECENT SHOT AT SOME FOG
WITH A LIKELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SEEMS MORE
FAVORED IN OUR WEST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I PUT FOG EVERYWHERE...SINCE
THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IN OUR EAST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
THOROUGHLY MIX THE FOG. I ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE HIGHER
CHANCE OF STRATUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A BIG CAVEAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AND
WILL THIS AFFECT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. I WENT A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THEM A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY ENTERS THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
WITH THE QUICKER SPEED OF THE WAVE...OUR CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT HIGH...AND IF WE DO GET RAIN...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT. I
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE.

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS ALL WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE GFS INDICATES THAT WE COULD GET A
QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT KICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FOR NOW...I
WILL KEEP THIS DRY AS THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE PASSING TO THE EAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND WILL GIVE US NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM...MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. I KICKED UP THE BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CIRRUS IS STARTING TO BREAK UP AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 241727
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR BE NEARLY THE ISSUE THAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA IS ONLY EXPERIENCING A GENERIC LIGHT
FOG/HAZE. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY IN KS) ARE LIKELY SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVIER FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. PLENTY MORE ON THE FOG SITUATION BELOW...

MOVING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS (OR LACK THEREOF)...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY 24 HOURS...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP. TEMP-WISE TODAY...THOUGH NOT
LOOKING AT THREATENING ANY DAILY RECORDS AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY AIMED
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...KICKING OFF A
STRETCH OF 3 NOTABLY MILD DAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

IF THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING TODAY IT
IS MARGINAL FIRE DANGER PRIMARILY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FIRE WEATHER ANGLE IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN A
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

TURNING BACK TO THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 830Z/330 AM...AS MENTIONED
AT THE TOP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE...WITH THE ONLY TWO AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FLIRTING WITH 1-MILE-OR-LESS VISIBILITIES
BEING SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KS. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODELS AND ALSO
FORECASTER OPINION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS MORNING COULD COME
ANYTHING CLOSE TO RESEMBLING THE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT BOTH
IMPRESSIONS WERE CORRECT TO SOME DEGREE. ON ONE HAND...THE LONG-
LASTING STRATUS YESTERDAY LEFT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND...WHICH OFTEN IS A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN SOME AT-LEAST-
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT PER GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED KS AIRPORT OBS. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...THIS
MORNING/S SITUATION FEATURES A VERY DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS LARGELY FAR MORE
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WHEREAS THURSDAY
MORNING FEATURED NEAR-CALM SURFACE BREEZES AND IN FACT VERY LIGHT
WIND THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MORNING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF AT LEAST 4-8 MPH PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK MIXING. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONG THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...A DIRECTION THAT RARELY SUPPORTS
MAJOR FOG ISSUES FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS LARGE OF A
FACTOR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKELY ALSO
BEEN HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY RATHER THIN BUT NONETHELESS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS FOR THE SURFACE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY SUBTLE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT
BETWEEN PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEB/KS AND MORE
WESTERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE CWA IS UNDER PRONOUNCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEING DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

FINALLY GETTING TO THE MEAT OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL OBVIOUSLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG
TRENDS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON/T TAKE AN UNEXPECTED TURN FOR THE
WORSE...BUT OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF KS ZONES AND MAYBE SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO WORSE THAN 1-2 MILES.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG: WARM...DRY
AND GENERALLY A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH MAYBE A FEW PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS
BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SMALL-
SCALE DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AND
EVEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED
GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH ANY
THICKER CIRRUS BATCHES COULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL
POTENTIAL...AIMED HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MAINLY UPPER 70S NORTHEAST
TO LOW-MID 80S SOUTH AND WEST...WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING
GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 900-875 MILLIBARS LIKELY PRECLUDING EVEN
WARMER VALUES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CERTAINLY A VERY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST TX AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY-PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET GENERALLY SNAKING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE HARDER
TO COME BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RATHER CLEAR SKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH FROM TODAY ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT/FAIRLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES OF LARGELY NO MORE THAN 5
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH ISN/T NECESSARILY
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT LOW
TEMPS COULD IN FACT DROP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE TO
KEEP THEM VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MEANING THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 40S AND ANY LOW-40S MOST FAVORED
IN THE VALLEY-DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE LIGHT
BREEZES...AM NOT EXPECTING MENTIONABLE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO NOTICEABLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN BUT
TENDING A LITTLE MORE DRY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH OF THESE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THAT. SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY FALL
DAYS...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE
60 TO 65 RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CIRRUS IS STARTING TO BREAK UP AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE TWO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY MEET THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS (IN
THIS CASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS)...THE OTHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 MPH/25 MPH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND
STARTING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE...AT LEAST A LIMITED AREA IN
THE FAR WEST (MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-HOLDREGE-PHILLIPSBURG LINE)
COULD SEE VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT LEVEL. TURNING TO WINDS HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE ONLY 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS LARGELY UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN
THESE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BREEZES...NOT ONLY DOES OVERALL FIRE
DANGER TODAY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
HEADLINES...BUT IT EVEN FALLS SHORT OF NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS THAT
WOULD NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID). ALL THIS BEING SAID...CERTAINLY DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE SURE THEY DO
NOT EXCEED CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 241151
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
651 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR BE NEARLY THE ISSUE THAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA IS ONLY EXPERIENCING A GENERIC LIGHT
FOG/HAZE. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY IN KS) ARE LIKELY SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVIER FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. PLENTY MORE ON THE FOG SITUATION BELOW...

MOVING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS (OR LACK THEREOF)...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY 24 HOURS...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP. TEMP-WISE TODAY...THOUGH NOT
LOOKING AT THREATENING ANY DAILY RECORDS AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY AIMED
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...KICKING OFF A
STRETCH OF 3 NOTABLY MILD DAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

IF THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING TODAY IT
IS MARGINAL FIRE DANGER PRIMARILY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FIRE WEATHER ANGLE IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN A
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

TURNING BACK TO THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 830Z/330 AM...AS MENTIONED
AT THE TOP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE...WITH THE ONLY TWO AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FLIRTING WITH 1-MILE-OR-LESS VISIBILITIES
BEING SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KS. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODELS AND ALSO
FORECASTER OPINION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS MORNING COULD COME
ANYTHING CLOSE TO RESEMBLING THE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT BOTH
IMPRESSIONS WERE CORRECT TO SOME DEGREE. ON ONE HAND...THE LONG-
LASTING STRATUS YESTERDAY LEFT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND...WHICH OFTEN IS A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN SOME AT-LEAST-
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT PER GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED KS AIRPORT OBS. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...THIS
MORNING/S SITUATION FEATURES A VERY DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS LARGELY FAR MORE
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WHEREAS THURSDAY
MORNING FEATURED NEAR-CALM SURFACE BREEZES AND IN FACT VERY LIGHT
WIND THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MORNING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF AT LEAST 4-8 MPH PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK MIXING. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONG THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...A DIRECTION THAT RARELY SUPPORTS
MAJOR FOG ISSUES FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS LARGE OF A
FACTOR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKELY ALSO
BEEN HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY RATHER THIN BUT NONETHELESS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS FOR THE SURFACE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY SUBTLE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT
BETWEEN PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEB/KS AND MORE
WESTERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE CWA IS UNDER PRONOUNCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEING DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

FINALLY GETTING TO THE MEAT OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL OBVIOUSLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG
TRENDS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON/T TAKE AN UNEXPECTED TURN FOR THE
WORSE...BUT OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF KS ZONES AND MAYBE SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO WORSE THAN 1-2 MILES.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG: WARM...DRY
AND GENERALLY A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH MAYBE A FEW PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS
BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SMALL-
SCALE DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AND
EVEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED
GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH ANY
THICKER CIRRUS BATCHES COULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL
POTENTIAL...AIMED HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MAINLY UPPER 70S NORTHEAST
TO LOW-MID 80S SOUTH AND WEST...WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING
GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 900-875 MILLIBARS LIKELY PRECLUDING EVEN
WARMER VALUES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CERTAINLY A VERY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST TX AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY-PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET GENERALLY SNAKING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE HARDER
TO COME BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RATHER CLEAR SKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH FROM TODAY ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT/FAIRLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES OF LARGELY NO MORE THAN 5
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH ISN/T NECESSARILY
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT LOW
TEMPS COULD IN FACT DROP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE TO
KEEP THEM VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MEANING THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 40S AND ANY LOW-40S MOST FAVORED
IN THE VALLEY-DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE LIGHT
BREEZES...AM NOT EXPECTING MENTIONABLE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO NOTICEABLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN BUT
TENDING A LITTLE MORE DRY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH OF THESE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THAT. SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY FALL
DAYS...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE
60 TO 65 RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY...ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID...RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS MORNING THERE ARE
TWO SHORT-TERM ISSUES WORTH MENTIONING. FIRST OF ALL...THERE COULD
BE A FEW MORE HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG...WHICH IS
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z. ALSO...HAVE EXTENDED THE
PREVIOUSLY-ADVERTISED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
THROUGH 14Z AS WELL...AS A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTS IN AROUND 30KT OF TOTAL SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE
BREEZES...SPEEDS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 10KT OR LESS...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM
MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TODAY BEHIND A PASSING
TROUGH AXIS. BREEZES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BEST-DESCRIBED AS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE TWO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY MEET THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS (IN
THIS CASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS)...THE OTHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 MPH/25 MPH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND
STARTING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE...AT LEAST A LIMITED AREA IN
THE FAR WEST (MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-HOLDREGE-PHILLIPSBURG LINE)
COULD SEE VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT LEVEL. TURNING TO WINDS HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE ONLY 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS LARGELY UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN
THESE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BREEZES...NOT ONLY DOES OVERALL FIRE
DANGER TODAY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
HEADLINES...BUT IT EVEN FALLS SHORT OF NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS THAT
WOULD NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID). ALL THIS BEING SAID...CERTAINLY DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE SURE THEY DO
NOT EXCEED CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 240945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR BE NEARLY THE ISSUE THAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA IS ONLY EXPERIENCING A GENERIC LIGHT
FOG/HAZE. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY IN KS) ARE LIKELY SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVIER FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. PLENTY MORE ON THE FOG SITUATION BELOW...

MOVING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS (OR LACK THEREOF)...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY 24 HOURS...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP. TEMP-WISE TODAY...THOUGH NOT
LOOKING AT THREATENING ANY DAILY RECORDS AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY AIMED
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...KICKING OFF A
STRETCH OF 3 NOTABLY MILD DAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

IF THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING TODAY IT
IS MARGINAL FIRE DANGER PRIMARILY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FIRE WEATHER ANGLE IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN A
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

TURNING BACK TO THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 830Z/330 AM...AS MENTIONED
AT THE TOP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE...WITH THE ONLY TWO AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FLIRTING WITH 1-MILE-OR-LESS VISIBILITIES
BEING SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KS. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODELS AND ALSO
FORECASTER OPINION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS MORNING COULD COME
ANYTHING CLOSE TO RESEMBLING THE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT BOTH
IMPRESSIONS WERE CORRECT TO SOME DEGREE. ON ONE HAND...THE LONG-
LASTING STRATUS YESTERDAY LEFT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND...WHICH OFTEN IS A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN SOME AT-LEAST-
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT PER GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED KS AIRPORT OBS. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...THIS
MORNING/S SITUATION FEATURES A VERY DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS LARGELY FAR MORE
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WHEREAS THURSDAY
MORNING FEATURED NEAR-CALM SURFACE BREEZES AND IN FACT VERY LIGHT
WIND THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MORNING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF AT LEAST 4-8 MPH PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK MIXING. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONG THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...A DIRECTION THAT RARELY SUPPORTS
MAJOR FOG ISSUES FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS LARGE OF A
FACTOR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKELY ALSO
BEEN HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY RATHER THIN BUT NONETHELESS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS FOR THE SURFACE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY SUBTLE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT
BETWEEN PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEB/KS AND MORE
WESTERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE CWA IS UNDER PRONOUNCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEING DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

FINALLY GETTING TO THE MEAT OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL OBVIOUSLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG
TRENDS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON/T TAKE AN UNEXPECTED TURN FOR THE
WORSE...BUT OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF KS ZONES AND MAYBE SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO WORSE THAN 1-2 MILES.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG: WARM...DRY
AND GENERALLY A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH MAYBE A FEW PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS
BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SMALL-
SCALE DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AND
EVEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED
GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH ANY
THICKER CIRRUS BATCHES COULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL
POTENTIAL...AIMED HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MAINLY UPPER 70S NORTHEAST
TO LOW-MID 80S SOUTH AND WEST...WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING
GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 900-875 MILLIBARS LIKELY PRECLUDING EVEN
WARMER VALUES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CERTAINLY A VERY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST TX AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY-PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET GENERALLY SNAKING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE HARDER
TO COME BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RATHER CLEAR SKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH FROM TODAY ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT/FAIRLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES OF LARGELY NO MORE THAN 5
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH ISN/T NECESSARILY
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT LOW
TEMPS COULD IN FACT DROP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE TO
KEEP THEM VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MEANING THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 40S AND ANY LOW-40S MOST FAVORED
IN THE VALLEY-DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE LIGHT
BREEZES...AM NOT EXPECTING MENTIONABLE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO NOTICEABLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN BUT
TENDING A LITTLE MORE DRY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH OF THESE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THAT. SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY FALL
DAYS...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE
60 TO 65 RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF SOME POTENTIALLY OFF-AND-ON MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ONE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WAS
TO INTRODUCE A MARGINALLY-WARRANTED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) THROUGH THESE FIRST 6 HOURS THIS MORNING...AS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
RESULTS IN ROUGHLY 30KT OF DIFFERENCE OF SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...SPEEDS
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE TWO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY MEET THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS (IN
THIS CASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS)...THE OTHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 MPH/25 MPH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND
STARTING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE...AT LEAST A LIMITED AREA IN
THE FAR WEST (MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-HOLDREGE-PHILLIPSBURG LINE)
COULD SEE VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT LEVEL. TURNING TO WINDS HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE ONLY 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS LARGELY UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN
THESE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BREEZES...NOT ONLY DOES OVERALL FIRE
DANGER TODAY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
HEADLINES...BUT IT EVEN FALLS SHORT OF NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS THAT
WOULD NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID). ALL THIS BEING SAID...CERTAINLY DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE SURE THEY DO
NOT EXCEED CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITHOUT TOTALLY RE-HASHING WHAT THE EVENING FORECASTER OUTLINED
VERY WELL IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 935 PM...THE
MAIN MESSAGE HERE IS THAT THIS FORECASTER AGREES THAT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNLIKELY LATE
TONIGHT/THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE IMPRESSIVE MAGNITUDE IT
REACHED THURSDAY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A LIGHT FOG
IS IN THE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AND EARLIER
EVEN HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LOCALIZED DENSE FOG BETWEEN HOLDREGE-
PHILLIPSBURG. WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AND WILL
LEAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FOR
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...BUT FORTUNATELY THE
MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY SMOOTHER THIS TIME AROUND
WHEN COMPARED TO THURSDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...THANKS MAINLY TO GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL TRYING TO GET A GOOD FEEL FOR THE FOG SITUATION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE DROPS POST-SUNSET RESULTED IN RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THUS FAR THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. AS OF 02Z THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KPHG WHICH IS AT 1/4SM.

THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5KTS OR LESS...AND WITH NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...WHAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR ISNT TOO SURPRISING. THAT SAID...SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES
INDICATE MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL WORK INTO WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. ADD TO THAT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE 40S...AND THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WILL OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD
TO ONE-HALF OF THE CWA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAKER AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...IT STANDS TO REASON FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THAT AREA.

SO...GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO MODIFY THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT. DID GO AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AFTER
06Z...STRONGLY CONSIDERED PULLING ANY MENTION OF FOG FROM OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD DOESNT TRANSITION
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND/OR THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS DOESNT
DRY OUT AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THERE COULD CERTAINLY
STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND 06Z. TO PLAY IT SAFE...KEPT PATCHY
FOG GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...WENT AHEAD WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1SM. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASURABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF SOME POTENTIALLY OFF-AND-ON MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ONE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WAS
TO INTRODUCE A MARGINALLY-WARRANTED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) THROUGH THESE FIRST 6 HOURS THIS MORNING...AS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
RESULTS IN ROUGHLY 30KT OF DIFFERENCE OF SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...SPEEDS
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 240235
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL TRYING TO GET A GOOD FEEL FOR THE FOG SITUATION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE DROPS POST-SUNSET RESULTED IN RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THUS FAR THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. AS OF 02Z THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KPHG WHICH IS AT 1/4SM.

THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5KTS OR LESS...AND WITH NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...WHAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR ISNT TOO SURPRISING. THAT SAID...SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES
INDICATE MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL WORK INTO WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. ADD TO THAT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE 40S...AND THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WILL OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD
TO ONE-HALF OF THE CWA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAKER AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...IT STANDS TO REASON FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THAT AREA.

SO...GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO MODIFY THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT. DID GO AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AFTER
06Z...STRONGLY CONSIDERED PULLING ANY MENTION OF FOG FROM OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD DOESNT TRANSITION
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND/OR THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS DOESNT
DRY OUT AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THERE COULD CERTAINLY
STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND 06Z. TO PLAY IT SAFE...KEPT PATCHY
FOG GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...WENT AHEAD WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1SM. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASURABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING) ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...FOG QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA POST-SUNSET AND IS
IMPACTING EAR WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 3SM. GRI IS
SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 5SM. WENT
AHEAD AND AMENDED BOTH TAFS TO REFLECT THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL BELIEVED A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND
08KTS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND...ALONG
WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...HELP FOG DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT
EAR AND GRI THROUGH 06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...IT IS BELIEVED THE
WORST VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR.
THAT SAID...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION CAN REACH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS GRI AND/OR EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 240235
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL TRYING TO GET A GOOD FEEL FOR THE FOG SITUATION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE DROPS POST-SUNSET RESULTED IN RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THUS FAR THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. AS OF 02Z THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KPHG WHICH IS AT 1/4SM.

THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5KTS OR LESS...AND WITH NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...WHAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR ISNT TOO SURPRISING. THAT SAID...SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES
INDICATE MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL WORK INTO WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. ADD TO THAT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE 40S...AND THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WILL OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD
TO ONE-HALF OF THE CWA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAKER AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...IT STANDS TO REASON FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THAT AREA.

SO...GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO MODIFY THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT. DID GO AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AFTER
06Z...STRONGLY CONSIDERED PULLING ANY MENTION OF FOG FROM OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD DOESNT TRANSITION
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND/OR THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS DOESNT
DRY OUT AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THERE COULD CERTAINLY
STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND 06Z. TO PLAY IT SAFE...KEPT PATCHY
FOG GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...WENT AHEAD WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1SM. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASURABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING) ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...FOG QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA POST-SUNSET AND IS
IMPACTING EAR WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 3SM. GRI IS
SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 5SM. WENT
AHEAD AND AMENDED BOTH TAFS TO REFLECT THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL BELIEVED A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND
08KTS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND...ALONG
WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...HELP FOG DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT
EAR AND GRI THROUGH 06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...IT IS BELIEVED THE
WORST VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR.
THAT SAID...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION CAN REACH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS GRI AND/OR EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 232357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASUREABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.
A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A LOW CEILING AT GRI AND EAR...AND PERHAPS SOME
FOG CLOSER TO GRI.

FOG AND STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LONG SINCE DIMINISHED AND
AS OF 2350Z...NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL
EXIST OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE OVERWHELMINGLY SUGGESTS NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LIMITED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION IN THE 295-300K LAYER WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
EVEN THEN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY SUCH STRATUS SHOULD...FOR THE
MOST PART...REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF BOTH KGRI AND KEAR. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL AT
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
SCT007 06-15Z TO GIVE A HINT OF POTENTIAL STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE REALIZED. THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE
DOING SO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM EARLIER
TODAY REALLY RESTRICTED TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM CLIMBING VERY
FAR AND AS A RESULT...THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY QUICKLY MEET ITS
DEW POINT LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WIND...AS WELL AS DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SUGGEST IT WILL
BE HARD TO MAINTAIN FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME
IT SEEMS EAR IS JUST TOO FAR NORTHWEST TO OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TONIGHT. GRI SEEMS TO BE ON THE PERIPHERY
AND COULD STILL BE CLIPPED BY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A MENTION OF 6SM IN BR 06-15Z. FINALLY...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ~25KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH GRI AND EAR
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER
30KTS AND THUS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOT PLACED IN EITHER
TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 232056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASUREABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.
A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 231845
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
WAS EXTENDED IN TIME AGAIN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG STUBBORNLY CLINGING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF STRATUS VERY SLOWLY ERODING TODAY...MAKING
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23
2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 231845
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
WAS EXTENDED IN TIME AGAIN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG STUBBORNLY CLINGING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF STRATUS VERY SLOWLY ERODING TODAY...MAKING
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23
2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 231758
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>076-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 231758
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>076-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 231159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING/RATHER WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG WITHIN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA RESULTING IN
LIFR/VLIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
SHAKY ON THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS...OPTED TO STAY
THE COURSE WITH PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES IN RETURNING VISIBILITY TO
VFR AROUND 16Z AND ALSO RAISING CEILING TO MVFR AT THIS TIME. THEN
IN THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ADVERTISED A RETURN
TO VFR CEILING AS WELL. STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS HERE. ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE/MAINLY LIGHT FOG PROBABLY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY AGAIN TONIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE ONLY
HINTED AT LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG WITH A LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY AND
LOW SCATTERED CLOUD MENTION FOR NOW. ALSO LATE TONIGHT...LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER WHETHER A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
MENTION MAY BE WARRANTED...AS INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 1000 FT AGL COULD CREATE AROUND 30KT OF BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL. THIS SEEMED TOO
MARGINAL A WIND SHEAR EVENT FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE
REGIME THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 231134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 230945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 230945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 230622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...HAVE DEVOTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF ATTENTION SO
FAR ON THIS SHIFT TO ONGOING/IMMINENT FOG ISSUES. WILL OBVIOUSLY
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL ON THE MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTED FROM
A COMBINATION OF CURRENT OBS AND SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY MODEL PROGS
FROM THE RAP13/HRRR TO SUPPORT EXPANDING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES
ONTO THE ORIGINAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED BACK AT 950 PM. AS A
RESULT...ONLY 4 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND 3 COUNTIES ALONG
HWY 81 IN THE FAR EASTERN NEB CWA REMAIN VOID OF A FORMAL FOG
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE KEEPING OUT A CLOSE EYE FOR
POSSIBLE FURTHER EXPANSION. IN ADDITION...TACKED 1 MORE HOUR ONTO
THE ADVISORY TO RUN IT THROUGH 10 AM...AND IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS MIGHT NOT BE LONG ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES.

THE BOTTOM LINE...FOLKS WITHIN MUCH OF THE CWA NEED TO BE PREPARED
FOR A FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 230305
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF EAR AND GRI...AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A LOW CEILING...BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW CEILING WILL MOVE EAST OF GRI
BY 02Z...IF NOT A TOUCH SOONER AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE FORECAST AT GRI AFTER 02Z.
THE LOW CEILING HAS ALREADY CLEARED EAR AND FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED AT EAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WILL CLEAR BY 02Z IF NOT SOONER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
WILL NOT IMPACT EAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES STARTING
06Z TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONE
SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION COULD DROP TO IFR
OR LOWER...PRIMARILY AT GRI. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AND
AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
06-14Z...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
     047-061-062-073-074-083-084.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 222341
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF EAR AND GRI...AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A LOW CEILING...BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW CEILING WILL MOVE EAST OF GRI
BY 02Z...IF NOT A TOUCH SOONER AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE FORECAST AT GRI AFTER 02Z.
THE LOW CEILING HAS ALREADY CLEARED EAR AND FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED AT EAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WILL CLEAR BY 02Z IF NOT SOONER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
WILL NOT IMPACT EAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES STARTING
06Z TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONE
SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION COULD DROP TO IFR
OR LOWER...PRIMARILY AT GRI. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AND
AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
06-14Z...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 222000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





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