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000
FXUS63 KGID 312318
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURFACE LOW VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...AND WITH UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MU CAPE TO WORK
WITH...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
SPOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
TRACKS SOUTH. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO BLEND OF RAP/NAM GUIDANCE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS AND
INSTABILITY WANES. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE EVENING IS EXPECTED ONCE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FOR THOSE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
RECEIVE ANY.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOONS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW.
OTHERWISE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...KEPT
FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE GIVING SOME HINTS OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY QPF. DESPITE THIS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PICK
WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSITION EASTERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 312318
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURFACE LOW VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...AND WITH UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MU CAPE TO WORK
WITH...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
SPOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
TRACKS SOUTH. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO BLEND OF RAP/NAM GUIDANCE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS AND
INSTABILITY WANES. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE EVENING IS EXPECTED ONCE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FOR THOSE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
RECEIVE ANY.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOONS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW.
OTHERWISE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...KEPT
FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE GIVING SOME HINTS OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY QPF. DESPITE THIS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PICK
WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSITION EASTERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 312032
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURFACE LOW VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...AND WITH UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MU CAPE TO WORK
WITH...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
SPOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
TRACKS SOUTH. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO BLEND OF RAP/NAM GUIDANCE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS AND
INSTABILITY WANES. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE EVENING IS EXPECTED ONCE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FOR THOSE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
RECEIVE ANY.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOONS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW.
OTHERWISE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...KEPT
FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE GIVING SOME HINTS OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY QPF. DESPITE THIS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PICK
WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VCSH OR EVEN VCTS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREAFTER...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 312032
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURFACE LOW VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...AND WITH UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MU CAPE TO WORK
WITH...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
SPOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
TRACKS SOUTH. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO BLEND OF RAP/NAM GUIDANCE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS AND
INSTABILITY WANES. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE EVENING IS EXPECTED ONCE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FOR THOSE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
RECEIVE ANY.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOONS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW.
OTHERWISE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...KEPT
FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE GIVING SOME HINTS OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY QPF. DESPITE THIS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PICK
WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VCSH OR EVEN VCTS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREAFTER...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 311728
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE HOURLY FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED THRU 2 PM. OTHER THAN SHORT-TERM
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE
POPS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

FCST IS EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED. THICK CIRROSTRATUS IS MOVING THRU
WITH PATCHES OF BEEFY ALTOCU /ACCAS/ INDICATING THE MID-LVL
INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...AFTER ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPS WE RETURN TO
NORMAL TODAY AS WE CLOSE OUT A COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY JULY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA.
EMBEDDED IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LVL TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB
ALONG WITH ITS MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS
AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A
FEW ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD
LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340 J/KG WITH A VERY THIN CAPE PROFILE. SO THE
SREF FCST OF 750-1000 J/KG LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. I ORIGINALLY WAS
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT BETWEEN 1 AM-3
AM CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER ERN SD WITH NEW SHWRS
FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE STRIKES. SO THUNDER HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

THE SAMPLE TOOL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -30C AT 330 AM WHICH
TRANSLATES TO TOPS OF 27K FT. WEAK UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE LIMITER OF
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

THE FCST OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MAKE THE POTENTIAL SOUND WORSE THAN
IT REALLY IS. WOULD PREFER THE FCST WORDED AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF T. MITCHELL SD /MHE/ DID MEASURE
.03" BETWEEN 2-3 AM. IF ISOLATED SHWRS ARE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM POPPING A FEW WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE NAM CONTS THE LEADER ON THIS SHWR POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z GEM/
GFS HAVE COME AROUND WITH THEIR QPF. THE 12Z/00Z EC RUNS DUMP
SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL...BUT ONLY NE OF THE FCST AREA.

TODAY: LARGE PATCHES OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL DEPART FROM W-E
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB...SOME OF WHICH WILL END UP AS EMBRYOS FOR SHWR
ACTIVITY.

THE 4 KM NAM NESTS ARE HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY VERY
WELL VS REALITY AT 3 AM. THEY SUGGEST THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED SHWR
MIGHT DEVELOP BEFORE NOON...THE MAIN INITIATION WILL BE IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY IN A BROKEN ARC OF SHWRS THAT TRACKS SE
THRU EARLY EVENING. MORNING POPS MAY BE SCALED BACK OR REMOVED
ALTOGETHER LATER THIS MORNING.

DEWPOINTS REALLY DROPPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON S OF I-80. SO I USED
A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NAM 2M DWPTS AND MAV MOS /FOR 21Z-03Z/ WHICH
HAVE BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST WEEK. 30F SFC DWPT
SPREADS AND CLOUD BASES NEAR 7K FT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY SHWRS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO UP TO 40
MPH.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING AS SHWRS FADE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR SURVIVING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
NW-SE AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
DEPARTS TO THE SE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

POPS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM AND 15Z/21Z SREF...CROSS
CHECKED WITH THE HI-RES NAM NESTS. VERY SHORT-TERM POPS WILL NEED
TO BE INCREASED AS RADAR TRENDS UNFOLD LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL
PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD
BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION CLEARS THE
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR
AREA...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS JOIN THE NAM SOLUTION. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VCSH OR EVEN VCTS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREAFTER...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 311728
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE HOURLY FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED THRU 2 PM. OTHER THAN SHORT-TERM
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE
POPS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

FCST IS EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED. THICK CIRROSTRATUS IS MOVING THRU
WITH PATCHES OF BEEFY ALTOCU /ACCAS/ INDICATING THE MID-LVL
INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...AFTER ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPS WE RETURN TO
NORMAL TODAY AS WE CLOSE OUT A COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY JULY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA.
EMBEDDED IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LVL TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB
ALONG WITH ITS MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS
AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A
FEW ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD
LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340 J/KG WITH A VERY THIN CAPE PROFILE. SO THE
SREF FCST OF 750-1000 J/KG LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. I ORIGINALLY WAS
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT BETWEEN 1 AM-3
AM CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER ERN SD WITH NEW SHWRS
FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE STRIKES. SO THUNDER HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

THE SAMPLE TOOL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -30C AT 330 AM WHICH
TRANSLATES TO TOPS OF 27K FT. WEAK UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE LIMITER OF
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

THE FCST OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MAKE THE POTENTIAL SOUND WORSE THAN
IT REALLY IS. WOULD PREFER THE FCST WORDED AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF T. MITCHELL SD /MHE/ DID MEASURE
.03" BETWEEN 2-3 AM. IF ISOLATED SHWRS ARE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM POPPING A FEW WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE NAM CONTS THE LEADER ON THIS SHWR POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z GEM/
GFS HAVE COME AROUND WITH THEIR QPF. THE 12Z/00Z EC RUNS DUMP
SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL...BUT ONLY NE OF THE FCST AREA.

TODAY: LARGE PATCHES OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL DEPART FROM W-E
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB...SOME OF WHICH WILL END UP AS EMBRYOS FOR SHWR
ACTIVITY.

THE 4 KM NAM NESTS ARE HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY VERY
WELL VS REALITY AT 3 AM. THEY SUGGEST THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED SHWR
MIGHT DEVELOP BEFORE NOON...THE MAIN INITIATION WILL BE IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY IN A BROKEN ARC OF SHWRS THAT TRACKS SE
THRU EARLY EVENING. MORNING POPS MAY BE SCALED BACK OR REMOVED
ALTOGETHER LATER THIS MORNING.

DEWPOINTS REALLY DROPPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON S OF I-80. SO I USED
A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NAM 2M DWPTS AND MAV MOS /FOR 21Z-03Z/ WHICH
HAVE BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST WEEK. 30F SFC DWPT
SPREADS AND CLOUD BASES NEAR 7K FT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY SHWRS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO UP TO 40
MPH.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING AS SHWRS FADE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR SURVIVING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
NW-SE AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
DEPARTS TO THE SE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

POPS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM AND 15Z/21Z SREF...CROSS
CHECKED WITH THE HI-RES NAM NESTS. VERY SHORT-TERM POPS WILL NEED
TO BE INCREASED AS RADAR TRENDS UNFOLD LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL
PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD
BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION CLEARS THE
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR
AREA...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS JOIN THE NAM SOLUTION. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VCSH OR EVEN VCTS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREAFTER...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 311153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE HOURLY FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED THRU 2 PM. OTHER THAN SHORT-TERM
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE
POPS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

FCST IS EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED. THICK CIRROSTRATUS IS MOVING THRU
WITH PATCHES OF BEEFY ALTOCU /ACCAS/ INDICATING THE MID-LVL
INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...AFTER ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPS WE RETURN TO
NORMAL TODAY AS WE CLOSE OUT A COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY JULY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA.
EMBEDDED IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LVL TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB
ALONG WITH ITS MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS
AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A
FEW ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD
LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340 J/KG WITH A VERY THIN CAPE PROFILE. SO THE
SREF FCST OF 750-1000 J/KG LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. I ORIGINALLY WAS
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT BETWEEN 1 AM-3
AM CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER ERN SD WITH NEW SHWRS
FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE STRIKES. SO THUNDER HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

THE SAMPLE TOOL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -30C AT 330 AM WHICH
TRANSLATES TO TOPS OF 27K FT. WEAK UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE LIMITER OF
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

THE FCST OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MAKE THE POTENTIAL SOUND WORSE THAN
IT REALLY IS. WOULD PREFER THE FCST WORDED AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF T. MITCHELL SD /MHE/ DID MEASURE
.03" BETWEEN 2-3 AM. IF ISOLATED SHWRS ARE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM POPPING A FEW WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE NAM CONTS THE LEADER ON THIS SHWR POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z GEM/
GFS HAVE COME AROUND WITH THEIR QPF. THE 12Z/00Z EC RUNS DUMP
SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL...BUT ONLY NE OF THE FCST AREA.


TODAY: LARGE PATCHES OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL DEPART FROM W-E
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB...SOME OF WHICH WILL END UP AS EMBRYOS FOR SHWR
ACTIVITY.

THE 4 KM NAM NESTS ARE HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY VERY
WELL VS REALITY AT 3 AM. THEY SUGGEST THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED SHWR
MIGHT DEVELOP BEFORE NOON...THE MAIN INITIATION WILL BE IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY IN A BROKEN ARC OF SHWRS THAT TRACKS SE
THRU EARLY EVENING. MORNING POPS MAY BE SCALED BACK OR REMOVED
ALTOGETHER LATER THIS MORNING.

DEWPOINTS REALLY DROPPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON S OF I-80. SO I USED
A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NAM 2M DWPTS AND MAV MOS /FOR 21Z-03Z/ WHICH
HAVE BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST WEEK. 30F SFC DWPT
SPREADS AND CLOUD BASES NEAR 7K FT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY SHWRS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO UP TO 40
MPH.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING AS SHWRS FADE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR SURVIVING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
NW-SE AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
DEPARTS TO THE SE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

POPS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM AND 15Z/21Z SREF...CROSS
CHECKED WITH THE HI-RES NAM NESTS. VERY SHORT-TERM POPS WILL NEED
TO BE INCREASED AS RADAR TRENDS UNFOLD LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL
PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD
BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION CLEARS THE
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR
AREA...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS JOIN THE NAM SOLUTION. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND
GIVE WAY TO VIGOROUS ALTOCU AND POSSIBLY CB DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 7K FT. AN ISOLATED PROBABLY VFR SHWR COULD
THREATEN THE TERMINALS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WILD/ERRATIC GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY SW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR. ANY SHWR ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS BETWEEN 7-10K FT THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 311153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE HOURLY FCST HAS BEEN UPDATED THRU 2 PM. OTHER THAN SHORT-TERM
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE
POPS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

FCST IS EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED. THICK CIRROSTRATUS IS MOVING THRU
WITH PATCHES OF BEEFY ALTOCU /ACCAS/ INDICATING THE MID-LVL
INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...AFTER ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPS WE RETURN TO
NORMAL TODAY AS WE CLOSE OUT A COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY JULY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA.
EMBEDDED IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LVL TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB
ALONG WITH ITS MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS
AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A
FEW ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD
LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340 J/KG WITH A VERY THIN CAPE PROFILE. SO THE
SREF FCST OF 750-1000 J/KG LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. I ORIGINALLY WAS
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT BETWEEN 1 AM-3
AM CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER ERN SD WITH NEW SHWRS
FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE STRIKES. SO THUNDER HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

THE SAMPLE TOOL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -30C AT 330 AM WHICH
TRANSLATES TO TOPS OF 27K FT. WEAK UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE LIMITER OF
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

THE FCST OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MAKE THE POTENTIAL SOUND WORSE THAN
IT REALLY IS. WOULD PREFER THE FCST WORDED AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF T. MITCHELL SD /MHE/ DID MEASURE
.03" BETWEEN 2-3 AM. IF ISOLATED SHWRS ARE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM POPPING A FEW WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE NAM CONTS THE LEADER ON THIS SHWR POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z GEM/
GFS HAVE COME AROUND WITH THEIR QPF. THE 12Z/00Z EC RUNS DUMP
SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL...BUT ONLY NE OF THE FCST AREA.


TODAY: LARGE PATCHES OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL DEPART FROM W-E
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB...SOME OF WHICH WILL END UP AS EMBRYOS FOR SHWR
ACTIVITY.

THE 4 KM NAM NESTS ARE HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY VERY
WELL VS REALITY AT 3 AM. THEY SUGGEST THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED SHWR
MIGHT DEVELOP BEFORE NOON...THE MAIN INITIATION WILL BE IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY IN A BROKEN ARC OF SHWRS THAT TRACKS SE
THRU EARLY EVENING. MORNING POPS MAY BE SCALED BACK OR REMOVED
ALTOGETHER LATER THIS MORNING.

DEWPOINTS REALLY DROPPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON S OF I-80. SO I USED
A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NAM 2M DWPTS AND MAV MOS /FOR 21Z-03Z/ WHICH
HAVE BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST WEEK. 30F SFC DWPT
SPREADS AND CLOUD BASES NEAR 7K FT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY SHWRS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO UP TO 40
MPH.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING AS SHWRS FADE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR SURVIVING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
NW-SE AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
DEPARTS TO THE SE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

POPS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM AND 15Z/21Z SREF...CROSS
CHECKED WITH THE HI-RES NAM NESTS. VERY SHORT-TERM POPS WILL NEED
TO BE INCREASED AS RADAR TRENDS UNFOLD LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL
PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD
BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION CLEARS THE
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR
AREA...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS JOIN THE NAM SOLUTION. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND
GIVE WAY TO VIGOROUS ALTOCU AND POSSIBLY CB DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 7K FT. AN ISOLATED PROBABLY VFR SHWR COULD
THREATEN THE TERMINALS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WILD/ERRATIC GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY SW WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR. ANY SHWR ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS BETWEEN 7-10K FT THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 310844
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...AFTER ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPS WE RETURN TO
NORMAL TODAY AS WE CLOSE OUT A COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY JULY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA.
EMBEDDED IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LVL TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB
ALONG WITH ITS MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS
AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A
FEW ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD
LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340 J/KG WITH A VERY THIN CAPE PROFILE. SO THE
SREF FCST OF 750-1000 J/KG LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. I ORIGINALLY WAS
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT BETWEEN 1 AM-3
AM CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER ERN SD WITH NEW SHWRS
FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE STRIKES. SO THUNDER HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

THE SAMPLE TOOL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -30C AT 330 AM WHICH
TRANSLATES TO TOPS OF 27K FT. WEAK UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE LIMITER OF
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

THE FCST OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MAKE THE POTENTIAL SOUND WORSE THAN
IT REALLY IS. WOULD PREFER THE FCST WORDED AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF T. MITCHELL SD /MHE/ DID MEASURE
.03" BETWEEN 2-3 AM. IF ISOLATED SHWRS ARE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM POPPING A FEW WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE NAM CONTS THE LEADER ON THIS SHWR POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z GEM/
GFS HAVE COME AROUND WITH THEIR QPF. THE 12Z/00Z EC RUNS DUMP
SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL...BUT ONLY NE OF THE FCST AREA.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: QUITE A BIT OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE
MOVING THRU. SOME SCATTERED MID-LVL CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT WILL ALSO
BE AROUND. LOWS WILL BE 52-60F AND OCCUR BETWEEN 6-7 AM.

TODAY: LARGE PATCHES OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL DEPART FROM W-E
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB...SOME OF WHICH WILL END UP AS EMBRYOS FOR SHWR
ACTIVITY.

THE 4 KM NAM NESTS ARE HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY VERY
WELL VS REALITY AT 3 AM. THEY SUGGEST THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED SHWR
MIGHT DEVELOP BEFORE NOON...THE MAIN INITIATION WILL BE IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY IN A BROKEN ARC OF SHWRS THAT TRACKS SE
THRU EARLY EVENING. MORNING POPS MAY BE SCALED BACK OR REMOVED
ALTOGETHER LATER THIS MORNING.

DEWPOINTS REALLY DROPPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON S OF I-80. SO I USED
A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NAM 2M DWPTS AND MAV MOS /FOR 21Z-03Z/ WHICH
HAVE BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST WEEK. 30F SFC DWPT
SPREADS AND CLOUD BASES NEAR 7K FT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY SHWRS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO UP TO 40
MPH.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING AS SHWRS FADE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR SURVIVING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
NW-SE AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
DEPARTS TO THE SE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

POPS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM AND 15Z/21Z SREF...CROSS
CHECKED WITH THE HI-RES NAM NESTS. VERY SHORT-TERM POPS WILL NEED
TO BE INCREASED AS RADAR TRENDS UNFOLD LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL
PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD
BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION CLEARS THE
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR
AREA...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS JOIN THE NAM SOLUTION. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THRU 12Z: VFR WITH BKN CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. SOME PATCHES
OF 10K FT ALTOCU COULD ALSO DRIFT CLOSE BY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
S-SE AT EAR/GRI AND WILL CONT TO VEER TO SW UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR WITH BKN CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 7K FT. AN ISOLATED
PROBABLY VFR SHWR COULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS. SW WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR. ANY SHWR ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS BETWEEN 7-10K FT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 310844
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...AFTER ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPS WE RETURN TO
NORMAL TODAY AS WE CLOSE OUT A COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY JULY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA.
EMBEDDED IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LVL TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB
ALONG WITH ITS MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS
AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A
FEW ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD
LOW. THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH
SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340 J/KG WITH A VERY THIN CAPE PROFILE. SO THE
SREF FCST OF 750-1000 J/KG LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. I ORIGINALLY WAS
NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT BETWEEN 1 AM-3
AM CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING OVER ERN SD WITH NEW SHWRS
FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE STRIKES. SO THUNDER HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

THE SAMPLE TOOL SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS AROUND -30C AT 330 AM WHICH
TRANSLATES TO TOPS OF 27K FT. WEAK UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE LIMITER OF
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.

THE FCST OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MAKE THE POTENTIAL SOUND WORSE THAN
IT REALLY IS. WOULD PREFER THE FCST WORDED AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF T. MITCHELL SD /MHE/ DID MEASURE
.03" BETWEEN 2-3 AM. IF ISOLATED SHWRS ARE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM POPPING A FEW WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE NAM CONTS THE LEADER ON THIS SHWR POTENTIAL BUT THE 00Z GEM/
GFS HAVE COME AROUND WITH THEIR QPF. THE 12Z/00Z EC RUNS DUMP
SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL...BUT ONLY NE OF THE FCST AREA.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: QUITE A BIT OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE
MOVING THRU. SOME SCATTERED MID-LVL CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT WILL ALSO
BE AROUND. LOWS WILL BE 52-60F AND OCCUR BETWEEN 6-7 AM.

TODAY: LARGE PATCHES OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS WILL DEPART FROM W-E
THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS
S-CNTRL NEB...SOME OF WHICH WILL END UP AS EMBRYOS FOR SHWR
ACTIVITY.

THE 4 KM NAM NESTS ARE HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY VERY
WELL VS REALITY AT 3 AM. THEY SUGGEST THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED SHWR
MIGHT DEVELOP BEFORE NOON...THE MAIN INITIATION WILL BE IN THE 2-4
PM TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY IN A BROKEN ARC OF SHWRS THAT TRACKS SE
THRU EARLY EVENING. MORNING POPS MAY BE SCALED BACK OR REMOVED
ALTOGETHER LATER THIS MORNING.

DEWPOINTS REALLY DROPPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON S OF I-80. SO I USED
A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NAM 2M DWPTS AND MAV MOS /FOR 21Z-03Z/ WHICH
HAVE BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST WEEK. 30F SFC DWPT
SPREADS AND CLOUD BASES NEAR 7K FT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY SHWRS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO UP TO 40
MPH.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING AS SHWRS FADE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR SURVIVING
UNTIL MIDNIGHT S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
NW-SE AS DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
DEPARTS TO THE SE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

POPS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM AND 15Z/21Z SREF...CROSS
CHECKED WITH THE HI-RES NAM NESTS. VERY SHORT-TERM POPS WILL NEED
TO BE INCREASED AS RADAR TRENDS UNFOLD LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL
PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK...THE NAM DOES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD
BE REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION CLEARS THE
AREA WITHIN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED OVER OUR
AREA...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS JOIN THE NAM SOLUTION. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING 20-40% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE AREA FROM DAY TO
DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THRU 12Z: VFR WITH BKN CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. SOME PATCHES
OF 10K FT ALTOCU COULD ALSO DRIFT CLOSE BY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
S-SE AT EAR/GRI AND WILL CONT TO VEER TO SW UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR WITH BKN CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 7K FT. AN ISOLATED
PROBABLY VFR SHWR COULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS. SW WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR. ANY SHWR ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS BETWEEN 7-10K FT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 310534
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED SKY/TEMPS/DWPTS THRU SUNRISE. THE FCST DEWPOINTS NEEDED
THE MOST WORK VS REALITY. OVERALL ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH
VARIABLE SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT FOR THE 4 AM AFD.

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA. EMBEDDED
IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700
MB TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB ALONG WITH ITS
MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS AT DAYBREAK
TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD LOW.
THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340
J/KG. SO THE SREF FCST OF 500-1000 J/KG LOOKS OVERDONE.

MORE AROUND 4 AM...


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THRU 12Z: VFR WITH BKN CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. SOME PATCHES
OF 10K FT ALTOCU COULD ALSO DRIFT CLOSE BY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
S-SE AT EAR/GRI AND WILL CONT TO VEER TO SW UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR WITH BKN CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 7K FT. AN ISOLATED
PROBABLY VFR SHWR COULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS. SW WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR. ANY SHWR ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS BETWEEN 7-10K FT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 310534
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED SKY/TEMPS/DWPTS THRU SUNRISE. THE FCST DEWPOINTS NEEDED
THE MOST WORK VS REALITY. OVERALL ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH
VARIABLE SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT FOR THE 4 AM AFD.

ALOFT: NO CHANGE. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONT TO DOMINATE. THERE IS A
VERY SMALL TROF OVER SD /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/. THIS TROF WILL CONT
DROPPING S...CROSSING NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES CONTS TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE ERN USA. EMBEDDED
IN THIS HIGH WAS A VERY WEAK LOW OVER SD...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700
MB TROF. THIS LOW WILL CONT MOVING S...CROSSING NEB ALONG WITH ITS
MID-LEVEL FORCING...TO BE LOCATED NEAR CONCORDIA KS AT DAYBREAK
TOMORROW.

LOOKING AT VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS FROM WED AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED/SMALL SHWRS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SD LOW.
THERE WAS ONLY ONE CG LIGHTNING STRIKE. 00Z UNR/ABR SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IS LACKING. THE OBSERVED ABR SOUNDING IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE NAM BUFKIT SHOWED 24 HRS AGO...WITH SBCAPE/MLCAPE ONLY 340
J/KG. SO THE SREF FCST OF 500-1000 J/KG LOOKS OVERDONE.

MORE AROUND 4 AM...


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THRU 12Z: VFR WITH BKN CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. SOME PATCHES
OF 10K FT ALTOCU COULD ALSO DRIFT CLOSE BY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
S-SE AT EAR/GRI AND WILL CONT TO VEER TO SW UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THU: VFR WITH BKN CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 7K FT. AN ISOLATED
PROBABLY VFR SHWR COULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS. SW WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR. ANY SHWR ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS BETWEEN 7-10K FT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 302326
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...VARIABLY CLOUD SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL STRATUS IS VISIBLE
UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THIS
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW
AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THURSDAY...BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AS EVIDENT
IN BOTH THE RAP/NAM. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND
WEAK WEAK SHEAR VALUES...DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...BUT CAN JUSTIFY THE
SMALL MENTION FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY WARMING 1-2C...RESULTING
IN LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
TO LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW. A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 302326
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...VARIABLY CLOUD SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL STRATUS IS VISIBLE
UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THIS
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW
AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THURSDAY...BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AS EVIDENT
IN BOTH THE RAP/NAM. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND
WEAK WEAK SHEAR VALUES...DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...BUT CAN JUSTIFY THE
SMALL MENTION FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY WARMING 1-2C...RESULTING
IN LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
TO LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW. A WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 302049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...VARIABLY CLOUD SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL STRATUS IS VISIBLE
UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THIS
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW
AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THURSDAY...BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AS EVIDENT
IN BOTH THE RAP/NAM. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND
WEAK WEAK SHEAR VALUES...DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...BUT CAN JUSTIFY THE
SMALL MENTION FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY WARMING 1-2C...RESULTING
IN LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 6KFT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO THIN SOME
LATE IN THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. MAY SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHIFT IN DIRECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 302049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...VARIABLY CLOUD SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL STRATUS IS VISIBLE
UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THIS
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS LOW
AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW
THURSDAY...BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AS EVIDENT
IN BOTH THE RAP/NAM. WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND
WEAK WEAK SHEAR VALUES...DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...BUT CAN JUSTIFY THE
SMALL MENTION FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY WARMING 1-2C...RESULTING
IN LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER ONTARIO/TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. DURING THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
/MAINLY WITH PRECIP/ IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THERE BEING A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE. INHERITED SOME LOW POPS LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...AND THOUGH
MODELS DONT ALL AGREE WITH OUR CWA BEING IMPACTED /SOME KEEP IT NE
OF THE CWA/...WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRY SOLUTION
BEFORE REMOVING THOSE POPS...AND HAVE THEM CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

KEPT THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY PERIODS DRY...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING/BEING PUSHED A BIT EAST AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE STARTS
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST. AS WE GET INTO TUE/WED...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/NE...DEAMPLIFYING THE MAIN RIDGE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO AFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD /MAINLY TUES NIGHT AND WED/...BUT THIS EVENT IS
STILL A WEEK AWAY...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES IN THE MODELS
WITH TIMING/LOCATION.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GENERALLY FOR HIGHS
/POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPS WED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE/...WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 6KFT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO THIN SOME
LATE IN THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. MAY SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHIFT IN DIRECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 301727
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

JUST PUBLISHED A MUCH-NEEDED VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATE THRU 9 AM AS
FCST HOURLY TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF THE TRACK N OF I-80. THE PAST 3
HRS OF IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUING TO THIN AND
DROP S. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATING. THE OBSERVED TEMP AT
ORD WAS RUNNING 5F BELOW THE FCST.

SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING. PEAK
COLORS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 30-40 MIN.

WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF FOG PROBLEM AS WELL. THE CROSS-OVER TEMP AT
ORD IS 57F AND THE ASOS IS AT 54F AT 11Z WITH THE VSBY DROPPING.
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG N OF HWY 92.

THE NARROW BAND OF SHWRS SINKING THRU N-CNTRL KS HAS SLOWED ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS. THIS HAS BEEN BETTER DEPICTED IN THE HOURLY
POP/WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY TO START BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N. OVERALL...TURNING P/CLOUDY. THE CO SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE
RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH OFFERS 75-80F...
COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 6KFT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO THIN SOME
LATE IN THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. MAY SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHIFT IN DIRECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 301727
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

JUST PUBLISHED A MUCH-NEEDED VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATE THRU 9 AM AS
FCST HOURLY TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF THE TRACK N OF I-80. THE PAST 3
HRS OF IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUING TO THIN AND
DROP S. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATING. THE OBSERVED TEMP AT
ORD WAS RUNNING 5F BELOW THE FCST.

SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING. PEAK
COLORS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 30-40 MIN.

WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF FOG PROBLEM AS WELL. THE CROSS-OVER TEMP AT
ORD IS 57F AND THE ASOS IS AT 54F AT 11Z WITH THE VSBY DROPPING.
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG N OF HWY 92.

THE NARROW BAND OF SHWRS SINKING THRU N-CNTRL KS HAS SLOWED ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS. THIS HAS BEEN BETTER DEPICTED IN THE HOURLY
POP/WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY TO START BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N. OVERALL...TURNING P/CLOUDY. THE CO SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE
RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH OFFERS 75-80F...
COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 6KFT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO THIN SOME
LATE IN THE DAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. MAY SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHIFT IN DIRECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 301126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

JUST PUBLISHED A MUCH-NEEDED VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATE THRU 9 AM AS
FCST HOURLY TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF THE TRACK N OF I-80. THE PAST 3
HRS OF IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUING TO THIN AND
DROP S. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATING. THE OBSERVED TEMP AT
ORD WAS RUNNING 5F BELOW THE FCST.

SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING. PEAK
COLORS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 30-40 MIN.

WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF FOG PROBLEM AS WELL. THE CROSS-OVER TEMP AT
ORD IS 57F AND THE ASOS IS AT 54F AT 11Z WITH THE VSBY DROPPING.
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG N OF HWY 92.

THE NARROW BAND OF SHWRS SINKING THRU N-CNTRL KS HAS SLOWED ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS. THIS HAS BEEN BETTER DEPICTED IN THE HOURLY
POP/WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY TO START BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N. OVERALL...TURNING P/CLOUDY. THE CO SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE
RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH OFFERS 75-80F...
COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING TO THE S.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT. LIGHT
NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF CIRROSTRATUS IN THE EVENING.
MID-LEVEL CEILINGS SHOULD INVADE AROUND 7K AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

JUST PUBLISHED A MUCH-NEEDED VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATE THRU 9 AM AS
FCST HOURLY TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF THE TRACK N OF I-80. THE PAST 3
HRS OF IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUING TO THIN AND
DROP S. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATING. THE OBSERVED TEMP AT
ORD WAS RUNNING 5F BELOW THE FCST.

SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING. PEAK
COLORS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 30-40 MIN.

WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF FOG PROBLEM AS WELL. THE CROSS-OVER TEMP AT
ORD IS 57F AND THE ASOS IS AT 54F AT 11Z WITH THE VSBY DROPPING.
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG N OF HWY 92.

THE NARROW BAND OF SHWRS SINKING THRU N-CNTRL KS HAS SLOWED ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS. THIS HAS BEEN BETTER DEPICTED IN THE HOURLY
POP/WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY TO START BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
N. OVERALL...TURNING P/CLOUDY. THE CO SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE
RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH OFFERS 75-80F...
COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING TO THE S.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT. LIGHT
NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF CIRROSTRATUS IN THE EVENING.
MID-LEVEL CEILINGS SHOULD INVADE AROUND 7K AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

JUST PUBLISHED A MUCH-NEEDED VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATE THRU 9 AM AS
FCST HOURLY TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF THE TRACK N OF I-80. THE PAST 3
HRS OF IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUING TO THIN AND
DROP S. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATING. THE OBSERVED TEMP AT
ORD WAS RUNNING 5F BELOW THE FCST.

SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING. PEAK
COLORS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 30-40 MIN.

WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF FOG PROBLEM AS WELL. THE CROSS-OVER TEMP AT
ORD IS 57F AND THE ASOS IS AT 54F AT 11Z WITH THE VSBY DROPPING.
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG N OF HWY 92.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: CLOUDY S OF HWY 6 WITH THE BAND OF DEFORMATION/
FGEN-DRIVEN SHWRS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SINK S THRU N-CNTRL KS. THE
NRN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS ALREADY SAGGING S AND SHOWING
SIGNS OF THINNING IN SOME AREAS. SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS N OF
I-80. IN THE MINUTES JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THE MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME NICE COLORS.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. THE CO
SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL
KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO
OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH
OFFERS 75-80F...COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
LIGHT MAINLY E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS DIMINISH LEAVING JUST CIRRUS
CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

JUST PUBLISHED A MUCH-NEEDED VERY SHORT-TERM UPDATE THRU 9 AM AS
FCST HOURLY TEMPS HAD FALLEN OFF THE TRACK N OF I-80. THE PAST 3
HRS OF IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUING TO THIN AND
DROP S. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATING. THE OBSERVED TEMP AT
ORD WAS RUNNING 5F BELOW THE FCST.

SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING. PEAK
COLORS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 30-40 MIN.

WE MAY HAVE A BRIEF FOG PROBLEM AS WELL. THE CROSS-OVER TEMP AT
ORD IS 57F AND THE ASOS IS AT 54F AT 11Z WITH THE VSBY DROPPING.
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG N OF HWY 92.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: CLOUDY S OF HWY 6 WITH THE BAND OF DEFORMATION/
FGEN-DRIVEN SHWRS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SINK S THRU N-CNTRL KS. THE
NRN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS ALREADY SAGGING S AND SHOWING
SIGNS OF THINNING IN SOME AREAS. SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS N OF
I-80. IN THE MINUTES JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THE MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME NICE COLORS.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. THE CO
SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL
KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO
OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH
OFFERS 75-80F...COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
LIGHT MAINLY E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS DIMINISH LEAVING JUST CIRRUS
CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300857
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: CLOUDY S OF HWY 6 WITH THE BAND OF DEFORMATION/
FGEN-DRIVEN SHWRS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SINK S THRU N-CNTRL KS. THE
NRN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS ALREADY SAGGING S AND SHOWING
SIGNS OF THINNING IN SOME AREAS. SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS N OF
I-80. IN THE MINUTES JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THE MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME NICE COLORS.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. THE CO
SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL
KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO
OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH
OFFERS 75-80F...COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
LIGHT MAINLY E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS DIMINISH LEAVING JUST CIRRUS
CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300857
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN CONTS AS WE GRAPPLE WITH MINOR
DISTURBANCES THAT REDUCE FCSTR CONFIDENCE...

THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THAT
LEAVES US TO DEAL WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH HAVE LESS
PREDICTABILITY AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.

ALOFT: NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A WEAK AND SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS OVER ND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DROPPING S INTO SD. THIS
TROF WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME VERY SPOTTY TSTM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A COUPLE SHWRS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL CONT DROPPING
S AND ARRIVE HERE IN NEB TONIGHT.

SURFACE: OVERALL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SE INTO THE ERN USA. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL INDUCE A
WEAK LOW OVER WRN SD AND 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENCE AND
FALLING PRES THERE. THIS LOW IS FCST TO DROP SE INTO THE SANDHILLS
BY TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: CLOUDY S OF HWY 6 WITH THE BAND OF DEFORMATION/
FGEN-DRIVEN SHWRS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SINK S THRU N-CNTRL KS. THE
NRN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS ALREADY SAGGING S AND SHOWING
SIGNS OF THINNING IN SOME AREAS. SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS N OF
I-80. IN THE MINUTES JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THE MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME NICE COLORS.

TODAY: M/CLOUDY BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. THE CO
SHORTWAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BAND OF FGEN SHWRS OVER N-CNTRL
KS AND THE MORE EXTENSIVE RAIN/TSTMS TO THE S AND W WILL DIVE INTO
OK TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. USED
CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS WITH A BIAS CORRECTION WHICH
OFFERS 75-80F...COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THE LONGEST.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRROSTRATUS IN THE
EVENING THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPS ARE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
2M TEMPS WITH NO BIAS CORRECTION /55-60F/. HOWEVER...WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS EXPECTED SOME AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LONGEST COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER.

A FEW SHWRS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP N OF I-80 IN THE BURST OF MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW/TROF. THE 18Z/00Z/06Z NAM RUNS HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THEIR
SPOTTY/LOW QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NO CONSISTENCY OR NO QPF.

THE SATURATION THAT OCCURS IN THE 6-8K FT LAYER DOES LEAD TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS FCST A WEAK CAP BETWEEN 600-500
MB. THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS DOES GET PAST
THIS WITH A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE /MAYBE 400 J/KG CAPE?/ AND
AN EQUILIBRIUM LVL NEAR 29K FT.

FOR NOW...A 20% POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FCST N OF I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NO THUNDER. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE DAY SHIFT
HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST REMAIN
PERSISTENT IN UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA
AS A PERTURBATION MOVES NEARBY WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FOCUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING
DRY FOR THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE AT AROUND
25 TO 30 KTS TOPS AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN 750 J/KG.

AFTER THE THURSDAY WAVE...WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. I DID NOT EXPAND THIS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AS TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION IS IN QUESTION.. THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO GET MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES OVER OUR AREA...AS PREDICTED BY
SOME NUMERICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM.

AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES...THERE WILL BE MORE OF A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MAKE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
LIGHT MAINLY E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS DIMINISH LEAVING JUST CIRRUS
CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300532
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FGEN-GENERATED SHWRS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR BEAVER CITY NE
TO CONCORDIA KS. NO LIGHTNING THUS FAR AND NONE IS ANTICIPATED. SO
THUNDER HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. CONT TO EXPECT THE TRI-
CITIES N AND E WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT BUT WITH MID-HIGH
OVERCAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SENT A QUICK ENHANCED SHORT-TERM UPDATE /ESTF/ AS OUR FCST TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOL COMPARED TO REALITY. THICK MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD COVER IS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
TEMPS WERE MERGED WITH THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES MODELS THRU 15Z.
THIS BUMPED UP LOW TEMPS 3-4F...MAINLY N OF I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO
POSSIBLY 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE...PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE WELL UNDER 0.25 INCH IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME...AND EVEN AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THAT MUCH WOULD
PROBABLY FOCUS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN PARTS OF WESTERN NEB AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS. IN CONTRAST...EVEN A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NO MENTION OF RAIN WHATSOEVER IN THESE AREAS. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF LOW-END POPS HAS BEEN
TRIMMED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS WHICH ARE NOW
LOOKING DRY FOR ALL BUT MAYBE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST 1/4
OF THE CWA AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT HAS BEEN DRY-
CWA WIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW SINCE THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND
OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FADED AWAY BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT TO YIELD COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. ALOFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE THE SAME
OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THIS WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA DIRECTED IN BETWEEN A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A MORE PROMINENT BROAD EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IS
YIELDING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOMEWHAT STEADIER EASTERLY BREEZES
AROUND 10 MPH DEPENDING ON WHICH PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO END UP A TOUCH WARMER THAN ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...BUT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 78-82
RANGE...AND WARMER HIGHS OF 82-88 IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT ALL MENTION OF PRECIP...EVEN
SPRINKLES THROUGH 00Z/7PM AS ANY FOCUS REMAINS FARTHER WEST.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES
AND AGAIN TRIMMED THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF BOTH POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL A BIT...WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDER RELEGATED GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE WHERE AT LEAST
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF POTENTIALLY UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE PER THE 12Z/18Z NAM. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER FARTHER NORTHEAST...DID AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ROUGHLY A KEARNEY-
HASTINGS-HEBRON LINE...AND MAINLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS VARY
ON HOW AGGRESSIVE TO GET WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY 20-40 POPS. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO
SLIDING MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL INDUCE A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL SATURATION/FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT AROUND 700-600MB...WHICH
COULD PROMOTE THIS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD HOLD
UP LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST...HAVE AIMED FOR MID-UPPER 50S IN MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
60S IN KS.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORCING FROM THE PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN PREVAILING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS EVIDENT ON
THE 310/315K SURFACES. AS A RESULT...WHATEVER RAIN MIGHT BE GOING
ON TO START THE DAY AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AND WOULD EXPECT THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE VOID
OF EVEN SPRINKLES BY MID-AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...KEPT
SOME LOW 20-30 MEASURABLE POPS GOING IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ALTHOUGH VERY MEAGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST DURING THE
DAY...SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT SO
POTENTIALLY ROLLED THE DICE A BIT AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND WENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ONLY. AS FOR
HIGH TEMPS...THEY COULD AGAIN BE TEMPERED A BIT BY PLENTY OF
EARLY-MID DAY CLOUD COVER...BUT ASSUMING AT LEAST MOST OF THE CWA
AVERAGES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON...OPTED
TO BUMP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 80-82.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
EACH OF THE WAVES THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
A FEW FAIRLY WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH AND THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT OF THE MODELS ONLY SOME OF THEM HAVE PRECIPITATION
FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME TO ADD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF SOME OF THE UPPER WAVES HAVE MORE STRENGTH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE WAVE A LITTLE LATER SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
LIGHT MAINLY E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS DIMINISH LEAVING JUST CIRRUS
CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300532
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FGEN-GENERATED SHWRS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR BEAVER CITY NE
TO CONCORDIA KS. NO LIGHTNING THUS FAR AND NONE IS ANTICIPATED. SO
THUNDER HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. CONT TO EXPECT THE TRI-
CITIES N AND E WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT BUT WITH MID-HIGH
OVERCAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SENT A QUICK ENHANCED SHORT-TERM UPDATE /ESTF/ AS OUR FCST TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOL COMPARED TO REALITY. THICK MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD COVER IS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
TEMPS WERE MERGED WITH THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES MODELS THRU 15Z.
THIS BUMPED UP LOW TEMPS 3-4F...MAINLY N OF I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO
POSSIBLY 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE...PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE WELL UNDER 0.25 INCH IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME...AND EVEN AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THAT MUCH WOULD
PROBABLY FOCUS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN PARTS OF WESTERN NEB AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS. IN CONTRAST...EVEN A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NO MENTION OF RAIN WHATSOEVER IN THESE AREAS. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF LOW-END POPS HAS BEEN
TRIMMED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS WHICH ARE NOW
LOOKING DRY FOR ALL BUT MAYBE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST 1/4
OF THE CWA AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT HAS BEEN DRY-
CWA WIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW SINCE THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND
OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FADED AWAY BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT TO YIELD COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. ALOFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE THE SAME
OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THIS WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA DIRECTED IN BETWEEN A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A MORE PROMINENT BROAD EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IS
YIELDING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOMEWHAT STEADIER EASTERLY BREEZES
AROUND 10 MPH DEPENDING ON WHICH PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO END UP A TOUCH WARMER THAN ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...BUT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 78-82
RANGE...AND WARMER HIGHS OF 82-88 IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT ALL MENTION OF PRECIP...EVEN
SPRINKLES THROUGH 00Z/7PM AS ANY FOCUS REMAINS FARTHER WEST.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES
AND AGAIN TRIMMED THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF BOTH POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL A BIT...WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDER RELEGATED GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE WHERE AT LEAST
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF POTENTIALLY UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE PER THE 12Z/18Z NAM. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER FARTHER NORTHEAST...DID AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ROUGHLY A KEARNEY-
HASTINGS-HEBRON LINE...AND MAINLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS VARY
ON HOW AGGRESSIVE TO GET WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY 20-40 POPS. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO
SLIDING MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL INDUCE A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL SATURATION/FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT AROUND 700-600MB...WHICH
COULD PROMOTE THIS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD HOLD
UP LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST...HAVE AIMED FOR MID-UPPER 50S IN MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
60S IN KS.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORCING FROM THE PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN PREVAILING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS EVIDENT ON
THE 310/315K SURFACES. AS A RESULT...WHATEVER RAIN MIGHT BE GOING
ON TO START THE DAY AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AND WOULD EXPECT THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE VOID
OF EVEN SPRINKLES BY MID-AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...KEPT
SOME LOW 20-30 MEASURABLE POPS GOING IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ALTHOUGH VERY MEAGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST DURING THE
DAY...SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT SO
POTENTIALLY ROLLED THE DICE A BIT AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND WENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ONLY. AS FOR
HIGH TEMPS...THEY COULD AGAIN BE TEMPERED A BIT BY PLENTY OF
EARLY-MID DAY CLOUD COVER...BUT ASSUMING AT LEAST MOST OF THE CWA
AVERAGES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON...OPTED
TO BUMP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 80-82.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
EACH OF THE WAVES THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
A FEW FAIRLY WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH AND THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT OF THE MODELS ONLY SOME OF THEM HAVE PRECIPITATION
FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME TO ADD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF SOME OF THE UPPER WAVES HAVE MORE STRENGTH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE WAVE A LITTLE LATER SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
LIGHT MAINLY E WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS DIMINISH LEAVING JUST CIRRUS
CEILINGS AROUND 25K FT. LIGHT NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300325
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1025 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SENT A QUICK ENHANCED SHORT-TERM UPDATE /ESTF/ AS OUR FCST TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOL COMPARED TO REALITY. THICK MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD COVER IS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT
TEMPS WERE MERGED WITH THE CONSENSUS OF HI-RES MODELS THRU 15Z.
THIS BUMPED UP LOW TEMPS 3-4F...MAINLY N OF I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO
POSSIBLY 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE...PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE WELL UNDER 0.25 INCH IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME...AND EVEN AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THAT MUCH WOULD
PROBABLY FOCUS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN PARTS OF WESTERN NEB AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS. IN CONTRAST...EVEN A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NO MENTION OF RAIN WHATSOEVER IN THESE AREAS. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF LOW-END POPS HAS BEEN
TRIMMED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS WHICH ARE NOW
LOOKING DRY FOR ALL BUT MAYBE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST 1/4
OF THE CWA AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT HAS BEEN DRY-
CWA WIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW SINCE THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND
OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FADED AWAY BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT TO YIELD COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. ALOFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE THE SAME
OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THIS WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA DIRECTED IN BETWEEN A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A MORE PROMINENT BROAD EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IS
YIELDING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOMEWHAT STEADIER EASTERLY BREEZES
AROUND 10 MPH DEPENDING ON WHICH PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO END UP A TOUCH WARMER THAN ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...BUT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 78-82
RANGE...AND WARMER HIGHS OF 82-88 IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT ALL MENTION OF PRECIP...EVEN
SPRINKLES THROUGH 00Z/7PM AS ANY FOCUS REMAINS FARTHER WEST.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES
AND AGAIN TRIMMED THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF BOTH POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL A BIT...WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDER RELEGATED GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE WHERE AT LEAST
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF POTENTIALLY UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE PER THE 12Z/18Z NAM. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER FARTHER NORTHEAST...DID AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ROUGHLY A KEARNEY-
HASTINGS-HEBRON LINE...AND MAINLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS VARY
ON HOW AGGRESSIVE TO GET WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY 20-40 POPS. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO
SLIDING MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL INDUCE A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL SATURATION/FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT AROUND 700-600MB...WHICH
COULD PROMOTE THIS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD HOLD
UP LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST...HAVE AIMED FOR MID-UPPER 50S IN MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
60S IN KS.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORCING FROM THE PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN PREVAILING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS EVIDENT ON
THE 310/315K SURFACES. AS A RESULT...WHATEVER RAIN MIGHT BE GOING
ON TO START THE DAY AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AND WOULD EXPECT THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE VOID
OF EVEN SPRINKLES BY MID-AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...KEPT
SOME LOW 20-30 MEASURABLE POPS GOING IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ALTHOUGH VERY MEAGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST DURING THE
DAY...SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT SO
POTENTIALLY ROLLED THE DICE A BIT AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND WENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ONLY. AS FOR
HIGH TEMPS...THEY COULD AGAIN BE TEMPERED A BIT BY PLENTY OF
EARLY-MID DAY CLOUD COVER...BUT ASSUMING AT LEAST MOST OF THE CWA
AVERAGES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON...OPTED
TO BUMP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 80-82.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
EACH OF THE WAVES THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
A FEW FAIRLY WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH AND THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT OF THE MODELS ONLY SOME OF THEM HAVE PRECIPITATION
FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME TO ADD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF SOME OF THE UPPER WAVES HAVE MORE STRENGTH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE WAVE A LITTLE LATER SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEB AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH NOON WED. JUST A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE KEAR AREA...BUT WELL
BELOW 30 PERCENT CRITERIA WITH BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EWALD





000
FXUS63 KGID 292316
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO
POSSIBLY 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE...PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE WELL UNDER 0.25 INCH IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME...AND EVEN AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THAT MUCH WOULD
PROBABLY FOCUS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN PARTS OF WESTERN NEB AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS. IN CONTRAST...EVEN A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NO MENTION OF RAIN WHATSOEVER IN THESE AREAS. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF LOW-END POPS HAS BEEN
TRIMMED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS WHICH ARE NOW
LOOKING DRY FOR ALL BUT MAYBE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST 1/4
OF THE CWA AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT HAS BEEN DRY-
CWA WIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW SINCE THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND
OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FADED AWAY BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT TO YIELD COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. ALOFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE THE SAME
OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THIS WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA DIRECTED IN BETWEEN A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A MORE PROMINENT BROAD EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IS
YIELDING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOMEWHAT STEADIER EASTERLY BREEZES
AROUND 10 MPH DEPENDING ON WHICH PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO END UP A TOUCH WARMER THAN ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...BUT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 78-82
RANGE...AND WARMER HIGHS OF 82-88 IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT ALL MENTION OF PRECIP...EVEN
SPRINKLES THROUGH 00Z/7PM AS ANY FOCUS REMAINS FARTHER WEST.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES
AND AGAIN TRIMMED THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF BOTH POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL A BIT...WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDER RELEGATED GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE WHERE AT LEAST
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF POTENTIALLY UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE PER THE 12Z/18Z NAM. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER FARTHER NORTHEAST...DID AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ROUGHLY A KEARNEY-
HASTINGS-HEBRON LINE...AND MAINLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS VARY
ON HOW AGGRESSIVE TO GET WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY 20-40 POPS. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO
SLIDING MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL INDUCE A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL SATURATION/FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT AROUND 700-600MB...WHICH
COULD PROMOTE THIS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD HOLD
UP LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST...HAVE AIMED FOR MID-UPPER 50S IN MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
60S IN KS.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORCING FROM THE PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN PREVAILING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS EVIDENT ON
THE 310/315K SURFACES. AS A RESULT...WHATEVER RAIN MIGHT BE GOING
ON TO START THE DAY AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AND WOULD EXPECT THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE VOID
OF EVEN SPRINKLES BY MID-AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...KEPT
SOME LOW 20-30 MEASURABLE POPS GOING IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ALTHOUGH VERY MEAGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST DURING THE
DAY...SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT SO
POTENTIALLY ROLLED THE DICE A BIT AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND WENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ONLY. AS FOR
HIGH TEMPS...THEY COULD AGAIN BE TEMPERED A BIT BY PLENTY OF
EARLY-MID DAY CLOUD COVER...BUT ASSUMING AT LEAST MOST OF THE CWA
AVERAGES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON...OPTED
TO BUMP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 80-82.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
EACH OF THE WAVES THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
A FEW FAIRLY WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH AND THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT OF THE MODELS ONLY SOME OF THEM HAVE PRECIPITATION
FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME TO ADD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF SOME OF THE UPPER WAVES HAVE MORE STRENGTH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE WAVE A LITTLE LATER SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEB AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH NOON WED. JUST A VERY
SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE KEAR AREA...BUT WELL
BELOW 30 PERCENT CRITERIA WITH BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 292111
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO
POSSIBLY 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE...PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE WELL UNDER 0.25 INCH IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME...AND EVEN AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THAT MUCH WOULD
PROBABLY FOCUS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN PARTS OF WESTERN NEB AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS. IN CONTRAST...EVEN A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NO MENTION OF RAIN WHATSOEVER IN THESE AREAS. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF LOW-END POPS HAS BEEN
TRIMMED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS WHICH ARE NOW
LOOKING DRY FOR ALL BUT MAYBE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST 1/4
OF THE CWA AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT HAS BEEN DRY-
CWA WIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW SINCE THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND
OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FADED AWAY BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT TO YIELD COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. ALOFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE THE SAME
OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THIS WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA DIRECTED IN BETWEEN A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A MORE PROMINENT BROAD EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IS
YIELDING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOMEWHAT STEADIER EASTERLY BREEZES
AROUND 10 MPH DEPENDING ON WHICH PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO END UP A TOUCH WARMER THAN ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...BUT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 78-82
RANGE...AND WARMER HIGHS OF 82-88 IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT ALL MENTION OF PRECIP...EVEN
SPRINKLES THROUGH 00Z/7PM AS ANY FOCUS REMAINS FARTHER WEST.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES
AND AGAIN TRIMMED THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF BOTH POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL A BIT...WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDER RELEGATED GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE WHERE AT LEAST
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF POTENTIALLY UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE PER THE 12Z/18Z NAM. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER FARTHER NORTHEAST...DID AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ROUGHLY A KEARNEY-
HASTINGS-HEBRON LINE...AND MAINLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS VARY
ON HOW AGGRESSIVE TO GET WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY 20-40 POPS. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO
SLIDING MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL INDUCE A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL SATURATION/FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT AROUND 700-600MB...WHICH
COULD PROMOTE THIS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD HOLD
UP LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST...HAVE AIMED FOR MID-UPPER 50S IN MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
60S IN KS.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORCING FROM THE PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN PREVAILING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS EVIDENT ON
THE 310/315K SURFACES. AS A RESULT...WHATEVER RAIN MIGHT BE GOING
ON TO START THE DAY AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AND WOULD EXPECT THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE VOID
OF EVEN SPRINKLES BY MID-AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...KEPT
SOME LOW 20-30 MEASURABLE POPS GOING IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ALTHOUGH VERY MEAGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST DURING THE
DAY...SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT SO
POTENTIALLY ROLLED THE DICE A BIT AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND WENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ONLY. AS FOR
HIGH TEMPS...THEY COULD AGAIN BE TEMPERED A BIT BY PLENTY OF
EARLY-MID DAY CLOUD COVER...BUT ASSUMING AT LEAST MOST OF THE CWA
AVERAGES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON...OPTED
TO BUMP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 80-82.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
EACH OF THE WAVES THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
A FEW FAIRLY WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH AND THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT OF THE MODELS ONLY SOME OF THEM HAVE PRECIPITATION
FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME TO ADD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF SOME OF THE UPPER WAVES HAVE MORE STRENGTH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE WAVE A LITTLE LATER SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PASSING RAIN
SHOWER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER IN THE
PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-15Z AND MAINLY AT KEAR...CHANCES DO NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE TO EVEN WARRANT A VICINITY
SHOWER (VCSH) INCLUSION...AS BY FAR THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-100 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY REMAIN
AT/UNDER 6KT SUSTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVING LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO AVIATION CONCERNS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 292111
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO
POSSIBLY 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE...PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE WELL UNDER 0.25 INCH IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME...AND EVEN AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THAT MUCH WOULD
PROBABLY FOCUS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN PARTS OF WESTERN NEB AND
WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS. IN CONTRAST...EVEN A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NO MENTION OF RAIN WHATSOEVER IN THESE AREAS. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF LOW-END POPS HAS BEEN
TRIMMED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS WHICH ARE NOW
LOOKING DRY FOR ALL BUT MAYBE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST 1/4
OF THE CWA AND EVEN THEN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT HAS BEEN DRY-
CWA WIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW SINCE THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND
OF SPOTTY SHOWERS FADED AWAY BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT TO YIELD COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. ALOFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA INDICATE THE SAME
OVERALL PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THIS WEEK...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA DIRECTED IN BETWEEN A
BROAD RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER DISTURBANCES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A MORE PROMINENT BROAD EXPANSIVE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IS
YIELDING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOMEWHAT STEADIER EASTERLY BREEZES
AROUND 10 MPH DEPENDING ON WHICH PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK TO END UP A TOUCH WARMER THAN ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...BUT WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 78-82
RANGE...AND WARMER HIGHS OF 82-88 IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT ALL MENTION OF PRECIP...EVEN
SPRINKLES THROUGH 00Z/7PM AS ANY FOCUS REMAINS FARTHER WEST.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES
AND AGAIN TRIMMED THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF BOTH POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL A BIT...WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDER RELEGATED GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT LINE WHERE AT LEAST
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF POTENTIALLY UP TO A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE PER THE 12Z/18Z NAM. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
THUNDER FARTHER NORTHEAST...DID AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ROUGHLY A KEARNEY-
HASTINGS-HEBRON LINE...AND MAINLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS VARY
ON HOW AGGRESSIVE TO GET WITH PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY 20-40 POPS. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND ALSO
SLIDING MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL INDUCE A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL SATURATION/FRONTOGENESIS EVIDENT AROUND 700-600MB...WHICH
COULD PROMOTE THIS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD HOLD
UP LOWS A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
WEST...HAVE AIMED FOR MID-UPPER 50S IN MOST NEB ZONES AND LOW-MID
60S IN KS.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORCING FROM THE PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE GRADUALLY DEPARTS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN PREVAILING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS EVIDENT ON
THE 310/315K SURFACES. AS A RESULT...WHATEVER RAIN MIGHT BE GOING
ON TO START THE DAY AROUND SUNRISE SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AND WOULD EXPECT THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE VOID
OF EVEN SPRINKLES BY MID-AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...KEPT
SOME LOW 20-30 MEASURABLE POPS GOING IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
ALTHOUGH VERY MEAGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY EXIST DURING THE
DAY...SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT SO
POTENTIALLY ROLLED THE DICE A BIT AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND WENT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ONLY. AS FOR
HIGH TEMPS...THEY COULD AGAIN BE TEMPERED A BIT BY PLENTY OF
EARLY-MID DAY CLOUD COVER...BUT ASSUMING AT LEAST MOST OF THE CWA
AVERAGES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON...OPTED
TO BUMP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES ONTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 80-82.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
EACH OF THE WAVES THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
A FEW FAIRLY WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH AND THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT OF THE MODELS ONLY SOME OF THEM HAVE PRECIPITATION
FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME TIME TO ADD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF SOME OF THE UPPER WAVES HAVE MORE STRENGTH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE EAST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE WAVE A LITTLE LATER SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PASSING RAIN
SHOWER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER IN THE
PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-15Z AND MAINLY AT KEAR...CHANCES DO NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE TO EVEN WARRANT A VICINITY
SHOWER (VCSH) INCLUSION...AS BY FAR THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-100 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY REMAIN
AT/UNDER 6KT SUSTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVING LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO AVIATION CONCERNS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 291800
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL...THE BASIC FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY REMAIN ON
TRACK. THE NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO THUNDER THAT BISECTED THE
CWA FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
FADED AWAY TO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LUCKY AREAS RECEIVED OVER 0.10 OF RAIN FROM THIS BAND (HIGHEST
KNOWN MEASURED TOTAL WITHIN OUR CWA WAS 0.19 IN NORTHWEST VALLEY
COUNTY PER NERAIN)...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES THAT EVEN SAW
RAIN MEASURED AROUND 0.05 OR LESS. LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN SEVERAL
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH CUT BACK
THE AREA ALSO KEPT A SLIVER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A WILSONVILLE NEB-NATOMA
KS LINE...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO MUCH AND WILL RE- EVALUATE FOR
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...THE
SUNNY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY FAST...WHILE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST HAVE REMAINED COOLER THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHER THAN TACKING 1 DEGREE ONTO
HIGHS IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...SAW NO COMPELLING REASON TO
ALTER PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT ALL AT THIS POINT...THUS STILL
AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 77-80
RANGE...AND GENERALLY 81-87 SOUTHWEST. OBVIOUSLY IN THOSE PLACES
WHERE SKY COVER LEANS MORE TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE
DAY...THESE VALUES COULD EASILY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
JUST TO KEEP TODAYS COOLER TEMPS IN PERSPECTIVE THOUGH...ITS
ACTUALLY WARMER TODAY THAN IT WAS EXACTLY 1 YEAR TODAY ON JULY
29TH...WHEN BOTH GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS ESTABLISHED RECORD COOL
HIGHS FOR THE DATE OF ONLY 66 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY/WX. THIS BROKEN BAND OF SHWRS
HAS BEEN SINKING S AROUND 20 KTS. POPS/WX WERE MODIFIED TO ACCT
FOR THIS. THE 06Z NAM CONTS THE TREND OF DROPPING THE ZONE OF FGEN
S INTO KS THRU THE DAY. SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER N-CNTRL KS
AND GENERALLY DECREASE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHWRS HAS BEEN WANING. SO THUNDER WAS PULLED FROM
THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PASSING RAIN
SHOWER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER IN THE
PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-15Z AND MAINLY AT KEAR...CHANCES DO NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE TO EVEN WARRANT A VICINITY
SHOWER (VCSH) INCLUSION...AS BY FAR THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-100 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY REMAIN
AT/UNDER 6KT SUSTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVING LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO AVIATION CONCERNS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291800
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL...THE BASIC FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY REMAIN ON
TRACK. THE NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO THUNDER THAT BISECTED THE
CWA FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
FADED AWAY TO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LUCKY AREAS RECEIVED OVER 0.10 OF RAIN FROM THIS BAND (HIGHEST
KNOWN MEASURED TOTAL WITHIN OUR CWA WAS 0.19 IN NORTHWEST VALLEY
COUNTY PER NERAIN)...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES THAT EVEN SAW
RAIN MEASURED AROUND 0.05 OR LESS. LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN SEVERAL
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH CUT BACK
THE AREA ALSO KEPT A SLIVER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A WILSONVILLE NEB-NATOMA
KS LINE...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO MUCH AND WILL RE- EVALUATE FOR
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...THE
SUNNY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY FAST...WHILE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST HAVE REMAINED COOLER THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHER THAN TACKING 1 DEGREE ONTO
HIGHS IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...SAW NO COMPELLING REASON TO
ALTER PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT ALL AT THIS POINT...THUS STILL
AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 77-80
RANGE...AND GENERALLY 81-87 SOUTHWEST. OBVIOUSLY IN THOSE PLACES
WHERE SKY COVER LEANS MORE TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE
DAY...THESE VALUES COULD EASILY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
JUST TO KEEP TODAYS COOLER TEMPS IN PERSPECTIVE THOUGH...ITS
ACTUALLY WARMER TODAY THAN IT WAS EXACTLY 1 YEAR TODAY ON JULY
29TH...WHEN BOTH GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS ESTABLISHED RECORD COOL
HIGHS FOR THE DATE OF ONLY 66 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY/WX. THIS BROKEN BAND OF SHWRS
HAS BEEN SINKING S AROUND 20 KTS. POPS/WX WERE MODIFIED TO ACCT
FOR THIS. THE 06Z NAM CONTS THE TREND OF DROPPING THE ZONE OF FGEN
S INTO KS THRU THE DAY. SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER N-CNTRL KS
AND GENERALLY DECREASE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHWRS HAS BEEN WANING. SO THUNDER WAS PULLED FROM
THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PASSING RAIN
SHOWER MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER IN THE
PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-15Z AND MAINLY AT KEAR...CHANCES DO NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE TO EVEN WARRANT A VICINITY
SHOWER (VCSH) INCLUSION...AS BY FAR THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-100 MILES SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY REMAIN
AT/UNDER 6KT SUSTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVING LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO AVIATION CONCERNS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 291654
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL...THE BASIC FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY REMAIN ON
TRACK. THE NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO THUNDER THAT BISECTED THE
CWA FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
FADED AWAY TO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LUCKY AREAS RECEIVED OVER 0.10 OF RAIN FROM THIS BAND (HIGHEST
KNOWN MEASURED TOTAL WITHIN OUR CWA WAS 0.19 IN NORTHWEST VALLEY
COUNTY PER NERAIN)...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES THAT EVEN SAW
RAIN MEASURED AROUND 0.05 OR LESS. LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN SEVERAL
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH CUT BACK
THE AREA ALSO KEPT A SLIVER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A WILSONVILLE NEB-NATOMA
KS LINE...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO MUCH AND WILL RE- EVALUATE FOR
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...THE
SUNNY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY FAST...WHILE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST HAVE REMAINED COOLER THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHER THAN TACKING 1 DEGREE ONTO
HIGHS IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...SAW NO COMPELLING REASON TO
ALTER PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT ALL AT THIS POINT...THUS STILL
AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 77-80
RANGE...AND GENERALLY 81-87 SOUTHWEST. OBVIOUSLY IN THOSE PLACES
WHERE SKY COVER LEANS MORE TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE
DAY...THESE VALUES COULD EASILY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
JUST TO KEEP TODAYS COOLER TEMPS IN PERSPECTIVE THOUGH...ITS
ACTUALLY WARMER TODAY THAN IT WAS EXACTLY 1 YEAR TODAY ON JULY
29TH...WHEN BOTH GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS ESTABLISHED RECORD COOL
HIGHS FOR THE DATE OF ONLY 66 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY/WX. THIS BROKEN BAND OF SHWRS
HAS BEEN SINKING S AROUND 20 KTS. POPS/WX WERE MODIFIED TO ACCT
FOR THIS. THE 06Z NAM CONTS THE TREND OF DROPPING THE ZONE OF FGEN
S INTO KS THRU THE DAY. SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER N-CNTRL KS
AND GENERALLY DECREASE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHWRS HAS BEEN WANING. SO THUNDER WAS PULLED FROM
THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TODAY: A BAND OF BKN SHWRS EXTENDED FROM TIF-BBW-GRI-HJH AT 1130Z.
THE THREAT FOR SCT SHWRS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z AT GRI AND PROBABLY
15Z AT EAR. VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS 6-10K FT WILL GRADUALLY DROP S
AFTER 18Z WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS INVADING FROM THE S AS ONE
OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING OVER KS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME CALM.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 291654
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL...THE BASIC FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY REMAIN ON
TRACK. THE NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALLY-INDUCED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO THUNDER THAT BISECTED THE
CWA FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
FADED AWAY TO A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LUCKY AREAS RECEIVED OVER 0.10 OF RAIN FROM THIS BAND (HIGHEST
KNOWN MEASURED TOTAL WITHIN OUR CWA WAS 0.19 IN NORTHWEST VALLEY
COUNTY PER NERAIN)...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES THAT EVEN SAW
RAIN MEASURED AROUND 0.05 OR LESS. LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...LINGERED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN SEVERAL
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH CUT BACK
THE AREA ALSO KEPT A SLIVER OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A WILSONVILLE NEB-NATOMA
KS LINE...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO MUCH AND WILL RE- EVALUATE FOR
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...THE
SUNNY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE WARMED UP FAIRLY FAST...WHILE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST HAVE REMAINED COOLER THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHER THAN TACKING 1 DEGREE ONTO
HIGHS IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...SAW NO COMPELLING REASON TO
ALTER PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS AT ALL AT THIS POINT...THUS STILL
AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 77-80
RANGE...AND GENERALLY 81-87 SOUTHWEST. OBVIOUSLY IN THOSE PLACES
WHERE SKY COVER LEANS MORE TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE
DAY...THESE VALUES COULD EASILY END UP BEING SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.
JUST TO KEEP TODAYS COOLER TEMPS IN PERSPECTIVE THOUGH...ITS
ACTUALLY WARMER TODAY THAN IT WAS EXACTLY 1 YEAR TODAY ON JULY
29TH...WHEN BOTH GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS ESTABLISHED RECORD COOL
HIGHS FOR THE DATE OF ONLY 66 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY/WX. THIS BROKEN BAND OF SHWRS
HAS BEEN SINKING S AROUND 20 KTS. POPS/WX WERE MODIFIED TO ACCT
FOR THIS. THE 06Z NAM CONTS THE TREND OF DROPPING THE ZONE OF FGEN
S INTO KS THRU THE DAY. SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER N-CNTRL KS
AND GENERALLY DECREASE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHWRS HAS BEEN WANING. SO THUNDER WAS PULLED FROM
THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TODAY: A BAND OF BKN SHWRS EXTENDED FROM TIF-BBW-GRI-HJH AT 1130Z.
THE THREAT FOR SCT SHWRS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z AT GRI AND PROBABLY
15Z AT EAR. VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS 6-10K FT WILL GRADUALLY DROP S
AFTER 18Z WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS INVADING FROM THE S AS ONE
OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING OVER KS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME CALM.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 291138
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY/WX. THIS BROKEN BAND OF SHWRS
HAS BEEN SINKING S AROUND 20 KTS. POPS/WX WERE MODIFIED TO ACCT
FOR THIS. THE 06Z NAM CONTS THE TREND OF DROPPING THE ZONE OF FGEN
S INTO KS THRU THE DAY. SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER N-CNTRL KS
AND GENERALLY DECREASE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHWRS HAS BEEN WANING. SO THUNDER WAS PULLED FROM
THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TODAY: A BAND OF BKN SHWRS EXTENDED FROM TIF-BBW-GRI-HJH AT 1130Z.
THE THREAT FOR SCT SHWRS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z AT GRI AND PROBABLY
15Z AT EAR. VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS 6-10K FT WILL GRADUALLY DROP S
AFTER 18Z WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS INVADING FROM THE S AS ONE
OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING OVER KS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME CALM.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 291138
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/SKY/WX. THIS BROKEN BAND OF SHWRS
HAS BEEN SINKING S AROUND 20 KTS. POPS/WX WERE MODIFIED TO ACCT
FOR THIS. THE 06Z NAM CONTS THE TREND OF DROPPING THE ZONE OF FGEN
S INTO KS THRU THE DAY. SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER N-CNTRL KS
AND GENERALLY DECREASE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80.
WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHWRS HAS BEEN WANING. SO THUNDER WAS PULLED FROM
THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TODAY: A BAND OF BKN SHWRS EXTENDED FROM TIF-BBW-GRI-HJH AT 1130Z.
THE THREAT FOR SCT SHWRS SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z AT GRI AND PROBABLY
15Z AT EAR. VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS 6-10K FT WILL GRADUALLY DROP S
AFTER 18Z WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS INVADING FROM THE S AS ONE
OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING OVER KS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME CALM.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 290850
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO
6-7K FT. SOME VFR SPRINKLES OR -RA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. E-ESE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE: VFR MID-LEVELS CEILINGS /AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA IN THE AREA/
WILL END BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

TUE EVE THRU 06Z: PROBABLY VFR CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT FROM
TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ON-GOING OVER NRN KS. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 290850
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS THRU TONIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO ERASE THE DEFICITS
FROM THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL JULY BUT WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A WRN
USA TROF BY MID AUG...

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF IN THE E. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER AZ. THIS TROF WILL CREST THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN MEX SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOVING INTO CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE: A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS THRU TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ESE SFC FLOW.

NOW: A NW-SE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN BISECTED THE
FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONT ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR ORD TO HEBRON. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

THE MODELS THE PAST 24 HRS PERFORMED VERY VERY WELL WITH THIS
FGEN SIGNAL.

TODAY: VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. OUTSIDE THE FGEN CLOUDS/SHWRS
P/CLOUDY TO EVEN M/SUNNY. OTHERWISE...M/CLOUDY UNDER THAT BAND.
THE FGEN AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S INTO KS
TODAY ...WITH MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MOVING INTO S-CNTRL NEB.
THIS BAND OF SHWRS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK INTO KS AND OUT OF NEB.
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR TEMPORARILY END
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONE POTENTIAL
WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS HIGHS OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
HAVE 82-85F. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED...THESE TEMPS COULD
BE TOO HIGH.

TONIGHT: SHWRS SHOULD REDEVELOP/EXPAND AS THE FGEN CIRCULATION
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED BY QG FORCING/DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROF. THE WRF SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHWRS WILL REDEVELOP
FROM ROUGHLY LEXINGTON-RED CLOUD-MANKATO KS AND THEN SINK S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE NOT GOSPEL. THE MODELS MAY HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA...BUT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION.

CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. IF MAX PARCEL HEIGHT
OCCURS...CB TOPS WOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20K FT. THAT IS BARELY TALL
ENOUGH FOR ICE IN-CLOUD.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ABOUT 7F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

POPS WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z NAM WITH SOME 15Z/21Z SREF
AND 00Z HI-RES WRF BLENDED IN AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI-RES WRF MODELS
ARE PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL...THEY WERE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHTS
TODAY-TONIGHT.

QPF WAS A 30-30-40 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THEN CROSS CHECKED WITH 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" AND .10"
IN 12 HRS.

FCST CONFIDENCE TODAY-TONIGHT: MEDIUM


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THE REX BLOCK
WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS OVER CANADA AS THE HUDSON
BAY VORTEX FINALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH INFLUENCES FARTHER WEST OVER CANADA AND A RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ENTIRE HUDSON BAY BY
LATE WEEK. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THINGS MUCH IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE STANDING FIRM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TOUTING A HIGH INFLUENCE...WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY...
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AS WE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN RIDGE AS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN
TROUGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL RELY
HIGHLY ON ENSEMBLE MEANS....WITH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST NUMERICAL MODELS END PRECIPITATION IN
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...
WHICH BRINGS IN SOME MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
SEEMS IMPROBABLE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOR THE MOST PART...AND
WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS SNEAKS IN A SMALL PERTURBATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER SMALL SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA.

WENT WITH BCCONSRAW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM TERM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WENT MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO
6-7K FT. SOME VFR SPRINKLES OR -RA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. E-ESE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE: VFR MID-LEVELS CEILINGS /AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA IN THE AREA/
WILL END BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

TUE EVE THRU 06Z: PROBABLY VFR CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT FROM
TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ON-GOING OVER NRN KS. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 290524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT OF THIS SHIFT`S AFD.

BANDED MID-LVL CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS AND
WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT UNTIL BANDS OF -RA FORM.

TUE: WE KNOW FOR SURE THE MORNING WILL BE M/CLOUDY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
IMPROVEMENT THERE MAY BE IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FGEN FORCING
FADE...I HAVE TO BELIEVE SKIES WILL TURN P/CLOUDY. SO WE`LL
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT.

TONIGHT: ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WILL RESULT IN M/CLOUDY SKIES S OF HWY 6 AND P/CLOUDY TO THE N.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO
6-7K FT. SOME VFR SPRINKLES OR -RA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. E-ESE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE: VFR MID-LEVELS CEILINGS /AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA IN THE AREA/
WILL END BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

TUE EVE THRU 06Z: PROBABLY VFR CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT FROM
TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ON-GOING OVER NRN KS. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 290524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT OF THIS SHIFT`S AFD.

BANDED MID-LVL CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS AND
WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT UNTIL BANDS OF -RA FORM.

TUE: WE KNOW FOR SURE THE MORNING WILL BE M/CLOUDY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
IMPROVEMENT THERE MAY BE IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FGEN FORCING
FADE...I HAVE TO BELIEVE SKIES WILL TURN P/CLOUDY. SO WE`LL
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT.

TONIGHT: ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WILL RESULT IN M/CLOUDY SKIES S OF HWY 6 AND P/CLOUDY TO THE N.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO
6-7K FT. SOME VFR SPRINKLES OR -RA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. E-ESE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE: VFR MID-LEVELS CEILINGS /AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA IN THE AREA/
WILL END BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

TUE EVE THRU 06Z: PROBABLY VFR CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT FROM
TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ON-GOING OVER NRN KS. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 290419
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.

THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 290419
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.

THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT





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