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000
FXUS63 KGID 222316
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH "HEAVY" AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR
AN OVERALL-DREARY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO PINPOINTING RAIN
CHANCES/LOCATIONS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS...SO DON/T GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS
FOR SATURDAY AS THEY COULD EASILY TREND DIFFERENTLY. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE...THERE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NO RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330
PM...ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE
CWA...MAINLY OF THE MID-LEVEL VARIETY BUT WITH A THICKER AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL-WISE...TWO DISTINCT AREAS/BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY...ONE THAT HAS NOW LARGELY LIFTED OFF
TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER THAT IS CURRENTLY MAINLY FALLING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB ZONES. AS EXPECTED...AMOUNTS TODAY IN MOST
AREAS HAVE AVERAGED WELL-UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
WESTERN AREAS HAVE HAD MORE THAN THIS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A STRONGER PARENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO. THE NET RESULT IS EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CWA-WIDE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY NO MORE THAN 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS/PRECIP
HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPS QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND HIGHS IN MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT 53-60.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...MOST PLACES WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST...BUT BECAUSE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND ESPECIALLY DRIZZLE
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY HIGH...WANTED TO GO NO LOWER THAN 60 PERCENT
"LIKELY" CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...AT LEAST WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT
IN PLACE...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CLOUD
CEILINGS AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF AREAS OF PESKY LIGHT DRIZZLE.
THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE A FEW LEGITIMATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT BY AND LARGE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY/LIGHT FOG IS A DECENT BET...DO
NOT FORESEE A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THESE BREEZES.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL VERY LITTLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
VALUES...WITH LOWS AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS IS
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A VERY CLOUDY/DREARY DAY OVERALL.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES
EVER-CLOSER...GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CO AREA BY DAYS
END. OUT AHEAD OF IT...A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
PERSIST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKS TO
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINK THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME AT LEAST MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE MORE COMMON AS
WELL...AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING ONE OR
MORE BATCHES OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM AND
GENERALLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A LEGITIMATE BREAK FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES DURING PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON...IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY DESIGNATING A
TRULY "DRY" PART OF THE DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE...AND POPS IN THE
40-70 PERCENT RANGE DEFINE THE ENTIRE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE MUCH INTENSITY AT ALL IN MOST
AREAS...SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD FLIRT WITH THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT BECAUSE
OUR LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE ANY KIND OF
LEGITIMATE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CONTINUE. TEMP-WISE...IF ANYTHING MAY HAVE STILL GONE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
62-66 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AS THIS PERIOD IN ABOUT 3
DIFFERENT CHUNKS TIME-WISE.

THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WORK ACROSS OUR
FORECAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE MORE NORTH THAN
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST FOR THE MOST PART. RIGHT NOW HAVE
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THINGS MAY BE MORE DRIZZLY THAN ANYTHING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST OF A MCCOOK...KEARNEY...ORD LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE RISK
APPEARS MARGINAL IF THAT...GIVEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITING
INSTABILITY. ON MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST WHICH MAY BE THE
SPARK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. IF THE
SUN DOES MAKE A SOLID APPEARANCE...A FEW STORMS COULD POP
BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS LOW END.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEM TO BE BEST SHOT FOR A DRY PERIOD
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REFLECT THIS TREND. IN FACT
CHANCES WERE DROPPED QUITE A BIT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO HOLD
RAIN A BIT FOR THE BETTER PART OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS SHOULD
START TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT WARMER.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD EMBEDDED WAVES COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW. RIGHT NOW IT IS NOT THE CUT-OFF LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WE HAVE SEE IN RECENT WEEKS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND WITH SOME WARMER WEATHER...WILL
AGAIN HAVE A POTENTIAL INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...NOT
MENTION IMPACTS TO THE ALREADY HIGH PLATTE RIVER FLOW SHOULD
RAINFALL DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING AND
AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CEILING NEAR 500FT AGL WILL BE
REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN005 02Z ONWARD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION TO AROUND 5SM IN -DZ AND/OR BR IS ALSO FORECAST 02Z
ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PLATTE RIVER CREST IS APPROACHING KEARNEY GAUGE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEARNEY SHOULD TOP OFF ABOUT 7.0 OR 1 FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THOUGH IT WILL DROP OFF IT WILL DO SO VERY...VERY SLOWLY AND
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO. HIGHER WATER DOWNSTREAM
IN GRAND ISLAND AREA NOW FORCING GRAND ISLAND TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
ON HIGHWAY 34 BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING AROUND EXIT 312 INTERCHANGE
ON SOUTH SIDE. CREST PROBABLY 2 DAY AWAYS THERE. BACK TO THE
WEST...THE COZAD GAUGE SITE IS TECHNICALLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LAND FLOODING IN DAWSON PER DRIVE-THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. REISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MUCH OF DAWSON COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES LIMITED NEW RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...AND THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVE
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...BUT UPSTREAM THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD DROP SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...BRYANT
HYDROLOGY...MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 222316
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH "HEAVY" AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR
AN OVERALL-DREARY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO PINPOINTING RAIN
CHANCES/LOCATIONS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS...SO DON/T GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS
FOR SATURDAY AS THEY COULD EASILY TREND DIFFERENTLY. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE...THERE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NO RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330
PM...ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE
CWA...MAINLY OF THE MID-LEVEL VARIETY BUT WITH A THICKER AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL-WISE...TWO DISTINCT AREAS/BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY...ONE THAT HAS NOW LARGELY LIFTED OFF
TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER THAT IS CURRENTLY MAINLY FALLING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB ZONES. AS EXPECTED...AMOUNTS TODAY IN MOST
AREAS HAVE AVERAGED WELL-UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
WESTERN AREAS HAVE HAD MORE THAN THIS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A STRONGER PARENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO. THE NET RESULT IS EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CWA-WIDE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY NO MORE THAN 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS/PRECIP
HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPS QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND HIGHS IN MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT 53-60.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...MOST PLACES WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST...BUT BECAUSE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND ESPECIALLY DRIZZLE
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY HIGH...WANTED TO GO NO LOWER THAN 60 PERCENT
"LIKELY" CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...AT LEAST WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT
IN PLACE...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CLOUD
CEILINGS AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF AREAS OF PESKY LIGHT DRIZZLE.
THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE A FEW LEGITIMATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT BY AND LARGE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY/LIGHT FOG IS A DECENT BET...DO
NOT FORESEE A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THESE BREEZES.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL VERY LITTLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
VALUES...WITH LOWS AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS IS
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A VERY CLOUDY/DREARY DAY OVERALL.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES
EVER-CLOSER...GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CO AREA BY DAYS
END. OUT AHEAD OF IT...A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
PERSIST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKS TO
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINK THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME AT LEAST MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE MORE COMMON AS
WELL...AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING ONE OR
MORE BATCHES OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM AND
GENERALLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A LEGITIMATE BREAK FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES DURING PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON...IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY DESIGNATING A
TRULY "DRY" PART OF THE DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE...AND POPS IN THE
40-70 PERCENT RANGE DEFINE THE ENTIRE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE MUCH INTENSITY AT ALL IN MOST
AREAS...SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD FLIRT WITH THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT BECAUSE
OUR LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE ANY KIND OF
LEGITIMATE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CONTINUE. TEMP-WISE...IF ANYTHING MAY HAVE STILL GONE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
62-66 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AS THIS PERIOD IN ABOUT 3
DIFFERENT CHUNKS TIME-WISE.

THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WORK ACROSS OUR
FORECAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE MORE NORTH THAN
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST FOR THE MOST PART. RIGHT NOW HAVE
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THINGS MAY BE MORE DRIZZLY THAN ANYTHING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST OF A MCCOOK...KEARNEY...ORD LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE RISK
APPEARS MARGINAL IF THAT...GIVEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITING
INSTABILITY. ON MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST WHICH MAY BE THE
SPARK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. IF THE
SUN DOES MAKE A SOLID APPEARANCE...A FEW STORMS COULD POP
BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS LOW END.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEM TO BE BEST SHOT FOR A DRY PERIOD
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REFLECT THIS TREND. IN FACT
CHANCES WERE DROPPED QUITE A BIT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO HOLD
RAIN A BIT FOR THE BETTER PART OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS SHOULD
START TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT WARMER.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD EMBEDDED WAVES COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW. RIGHT NOW IT IS NOT THE CUT-OFF LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WE HAVE SEE IN RECENT WEEKS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND WITH SOME WARMER WEATHER...WILL
AGAIN HAVE A POTENTIAL INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...NOT
MENTION IMPACTS TO THE ALREADY HIGH PLATTE RIVER FLOW SHOULD
RAINFALL DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING AND
AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CEILING NEAR 500FT AGL WILL BE
REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN005 02Z ONWARD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION TO AROUND 5SM IN -DZ AND/OR BR IS ALSO FORECAST 02Z
ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PLATTE RIVER CREST IS APPROACHING KEARNEY GAUGE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEARNEY SHOULD TOP OFF ABOUT 7.0 OR 1 FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THOUGH IT WILL DROP OFF IT WILL DO SO VERY...VERY SLOWLY AND
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO. HIGHER WATER DOWNSTREAM
IN GRAND ISLAND AREA NOW FORCING GRAND ISLAND TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
ON HIGHWAY 34 BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING AROUND EXIT 312 INTERCHANGE
ON SOUTH SIDE. CREST PROBABLY 2 DAY AWAYS THERE. BACK TO THE
WEST...THE COZAD GAUGE SITE IS TECHNICALLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LAND FLOODING IN DAWSON PER DRIVE-THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. REISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MUCH OF DAWSON COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES LIMITED NEW RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...AND THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVE
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...BUT UPSTREAM THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD DROP SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...BRYANT
HYDROLOGY...MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KGID 222111
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH "HEAVY" AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR
AN OVERALL-DREARY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO PINPOINTING RAIN
CHANCES/LOCATIONS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS...SO DON/T GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS
FOR SATURDAY AS THEY COULD EASILY TREND DIFFERENTLY. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE...THERE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NO RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330
PM...ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE
CWA...MAINLY OF THE MID-LEVEL VARIETY BUT WITH A THICKER AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL-WISE...TWO DISTINCT AREAS/BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY...ONE THAT HAS NOW LARGELY LIFTED OFF
TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER THAT IS CURRENTLY MAINLY FALLING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB ZONES. AS EXPECTED...AMOUNTS TODAY IN MOST
AREAS HAVE AVERAGED WELL-UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
WESTERN AREAS HAVE HAD MORE THAN THIS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A STRONGER PARENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO. THE NET RESULT IS EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CWA-WIDE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY NO MORE THAN 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS/PRECIP
HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPS QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND HIGHS IN MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT 53-60.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...MOST PLACES WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST...BUT BECAUSE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND ESPECIALLY DRIZZLE
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY HIGH...WANTED TO GO NO LOWER THAN 60 PERCENT
"LIKELY" CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...AT LEAST WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT
IN PLACE...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CLOUD
CEILINGS AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF AREAS OF PESKY LIGHT DRIZZLE.
THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE A FEW LEGITIMATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT BY AND LARGE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY/LIGHT FOG IS A DECENT BET...DO
NOT FORESEE A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THESE BREEZES.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL VERY LITTLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
VALUES...WITH LOWS AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS IS
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A VERY CLOUDY/DREARY DAY OVERALL.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES
EVER-CLOSER...GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CO AREA BY DAYS
END. OUT AHEAD OF IT...A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
PERSIST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKS TO
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINK THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME AT LEAST MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE MORE COMMON AS
WELL...AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING ONE OR
MORE BATCHES OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM AND
GENERALLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A LEGITIMATE BREAK FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES DURING PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON...IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY DESIGNATING A
TRULY "DRY" PART OF THE DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE...AND POPS IN THE
40-70 PERCENT RANGE DEFINE THE ENTIRE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE MUCH INTENSITY AT ALL IN MOST
AREAS...SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD FLIRT WITH THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT BECAUSE
OUR LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE ANY KIND OF
LEGITIMATE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CONTINUE. TEMP-WISE...IF ANYTHING MAY HAVE STILL GONE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
62-66 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AS THIS PERIOD IN ABOUT 3
DIFFERENT CHUNKS TIME-WISE.

THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WORK ACROSS OUR
FORECAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE MORE NORTH THAN
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST FOR THE MOST PART. RIGHT NOW HAVE
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THINGS MAY BE MORE DRIZZLY THAN ANYTHING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST OF A MCCOOK...KEARNEY...ORD LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE RISK
APPEARS MARGINAL IF THAT...GIVEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITING
INSTABILITY. ON MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST WHICH MAY BE THE
SPARK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. IF THE
SUN DOES MAKE A SOLID APPEARANCE...A FEW STORMS COULD POP
BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS LOW END.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEM TO BE BEST SHOT FOR A DRY PERIOD
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REFLECT THIS TREND. IN FACT
CHANCES WERE DROPPED QUITE A BIT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO HOLD
RAIN A BIT FOR THE BETTER PART OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS SHOULD
START TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT WARMER.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD EMBEDDED WAVES COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW. RIGHT NOW IT IS NOT THE CUT-OFF LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WE HAVE SEE IN RECENT WEEKS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND WITH SOME WARMER WEATHER...WILL
AGAIN HAVE A POTENTIAL INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...NOT
MENTION IMPACTS TO THE ALREADY HIGH PLATTE RIVER FLOW SHOULD
RAINFALL DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
GENERALLY THE FIRST 2-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...A
DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND AS CEILINGS LOWER AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SEMI-STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWER OR A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED -DZ AND VCSH (VICINITY SHOWER) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CATEGORIES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE EVENTUAL RESULT SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR
CEILING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR
SURFACE WIND...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AT OR BELOW THE 10-15KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PLATTE RIVER CREST IS APPROACHING KEARNEY GAUGE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEARNEY SHOULD TOP OFF ABOUT 7.0 OR 1 FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THOUGH IT WILL DROP OFF IT WILL DO SO VERY...VERY SLOWLY AND
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO. HIGHER WATER DOWNSTREAM
IN GRAND ISLAND AREA NOW FORCING GRAND ISLAND TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
ON HIGHWAY 34 BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING AROUND EXIT 312 INTERCHANGE
ON SOUTH SIDE. CREST PROBABLY 2 DAY AWAYS THERE. BACK TO THE
WEST...THE COZAD GAUGE SITE IS TECHNICALLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LAND FLOODING IN DAWSON PER DRIVE-THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. REISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MUCH OF DAWSON COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES LIMITED NEW RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...AND THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVE
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...BUT UPSTREAM THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD DROP SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
HYDROLOGY...MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KGID 222111
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH "HEAVY" AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR
AN OVERALL-DREARY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO PINPOINTING RAIN
CHANCES/LOCATIONS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS...SO DON/T GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS
FOR SATURDAY AS THEY COULD EASILY TREND DIFFERENTLY. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE...THERE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NO RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330
PM...ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE
CWA...MAINLY OF THE MID-LEVEL VARIETY BUT WITH A THICKER AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL-WISE...TWO DISTINCT AREAS/BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY...ONE THAT HAS NOW LARGELY LIFTED OFF
TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER THAT IS CURRENTLY MAINLY FALLING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB ZONES. AS EXPECTED...AMOUNTS TODAY IN MOST
AREAS HAVE AVERAGED WELL-UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
WESTERN AREAS HAVE HAD MORE THAN THIS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A STRONGER PARENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO. THE NET RESULT IS EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CWA-WIDE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY NO MORE THAN 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS/PRECIP
HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPS QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND HIGHS IN MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT 53-60.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...MOST PLACES WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST...BUT BECAUSE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND ESPECIALLY DRIZZLE
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY HIGH...WANTED TO GO NO LOWER THAN 60 PERCENT
"LIKELY" CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...AT LEAST WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT
IN PLACE...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CLOUD
CEILINGS AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF AREAS OF PESKY LIGHT DRIZZLE.
THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE A FEW LEGITIMATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT BY AND LARGE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY/LIGHT FOG IS A DECENT BET...DO
NOT FORESEE A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THESE BREEZES.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL VERY LITTLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
VALUES...WITH LOWS AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS IS
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A VERY CLOUDY/DREARY DAY OVERALL.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES
EVER-CLOSER...GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CO AREA BY DAYS
END. OUT AHEAD OF IT...A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
PERSIST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKS TO
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINK THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME AT LEAST MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE MORE COMMON AS
WELL...AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING ONE OR
MORE BATCHES OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM AND
GENERALLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A LEGITIMATE BREAK FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES DURING PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON...IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY DESIGNATING A
TRULY "DRY" PART OF THE DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE...AND POPS IN THE
40-70 PERCENT RANGE DEFINE THE ENTIRE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE MUCH INTENSITY AT ALL IN MOST
AREAS...SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD FLIRT WITH THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT BECAUSE
OUR LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE ANY KIND OF
LEGITIMATE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CONTINUE. TEMP-WISE...IF ANYTHING MAY HAVE STILL GONE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
62-66 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AS THIS PERIOD IN ABOUT 3
DIFFERENT CHUNKS TIME-WISE.

THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WORK ACROSS OUR
FORECAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE MORE NORTH THAN
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST FOR THE MOST PART. RIGHT NOW HAVE
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THINGS MAY BE MORE DRIZZLY THAN ANYTHING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST OF A MCCOOK...KEARNEY...ORD LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE RISK
APPEARS MARGINAL IF THAT...GIVEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITING
INSTABILITY. ON MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST WHICH MAY BE THE
SPARK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. IF THE
SUN DOES MAKE A SOLID APPEARANCE...A FEW STORMS COULD POP
BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS LOW END.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEM TO BE BEST SHOT FOR A DRY PERIOD
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REFLECT THIS TREND. IN FACT
CHANCES WERE DROPPED QUITE A BIT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO HOLD
RAIN A BIT FOR THE BETTER PART OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS SHOULD
START TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT WARMER.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD EMBEDDED WAVES COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW. RIGHT NOW IT IS NOT THE CUT-OFF LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WE HAVE SEE IN RECENT WEEKS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND WITH SOME WARMER WEATHER...WILL
AGAIN HAVE A POTENTIAL INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...NOT
MENTION IMPACTS TO THE ALREADY HIGH PLATTE RIVER FLOW SHOULD
RAINFALL DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
GENERALLY THE FIRST 2-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...A
DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND AS CEILINGS LOWER AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SEMI-STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWER OR A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED -DZ AND VCSH (VICINITY SHOWER) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CATEGORIES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE EVENTUAL RESULT SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR
CEILING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR
SURFACE WIND...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AT OR BELOW THE 10-15KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PLATTE RIVER CREST IS APPROACHING KEARNEY GAUGE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEARNEY SHOULD TOP OFF ABOUT 7.0 OR 1 FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THOUGH IT WILL DROP OFF IT WILL DO SO VERY...VERY SLOWLY AND
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO. HIGHER WATER DOWNSTREAM
IN GRAND ISLAND AREA NOW FORCING GRAND ISLAND TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
ON HIGHWAY 34 BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING AROUND EXIT 312 INTERCHANGE
ON SOUTH SIDE. CREST PROBABLY 2 DAY AWAYS THERE. BACK TO THE
WEST...THE COZAD GAUGE SITE IS TECHNICALLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LAND FLOODING IN DAWSON PER DRIVE-THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. REISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MUCH OF DAWSON COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES LIMITED NEW RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...AND THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVE
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...BUT UPSTREAM THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD DROP SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
HYDROLOGY...MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KGID 222111
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH "HEAVY" AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR
AN OVERALL-DREARY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO PINPOINTING RAIN
CHANCES/LOCATIONS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS...SO DON/T GET TOO CAUGHT UP IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS
FOR SATURDAY AS THEY COULD EASILY TREND DIFFERENTLY. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE...THERE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NO RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITHIN THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 3/4 OF THE AREA.

BRIEFLY LOOKING AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330
PM...ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE
CWA...MAINLY OF THE MID-LEVEL VARIETY BUT WITH A THICKER AREA OF
LOWER STRATUS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL-WISE...TWO DISTINCT AREAS/BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA TODAY...ONE THAT HAS NOW LARGELY LIFTED OFF
TO THE NORTH...AND ANOTHER THAT IS CURRENTLY MAINLY FALLING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF NEB ZONES. AS EXPECTED...AMOUNTS TODAY IN MOST
AREAS HAVE AVERAGED WELL-UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW
WESTERN AREAS HAVE HAD MORE THAN THIS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A STRONGER PARENT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO. THE NET RESULT IS EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CWA-WIDE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY NO MORE THAN 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AS EXPECTED...CLOUDS/PRECIP
HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPS QUITE A BIT TODAY...AND HIGHS IN MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT 53-60.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS STATED AT THE TOP...MOST PLACES WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST...BUT BECAUSE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND ESPECIALLY DRIZZLE
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY HIGH...WANTED TO GO NO LOWER THAN 60 PERCENT
"LIKELY" CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS...AT LEAST WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT
IN PLACE...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CLOUD
CEILINGS AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF AREAS OF PESKY LIGHT DRIZZLE.
THERE COULD EVENTUALLY BE A FEW LEGITIMATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA)...BUT BY AND LARGE THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY/LIGHT FOG IS A DECENT BET...DO
NOT FORESEE A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THESE BREEZES.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL VERY LITTLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
VALUES...WITH LOWS AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS IS
LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A VERY CLOUDY/DREARY DAY OVERALL.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES
EVER-CLOSER...GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CO AREA BY DAYS
END. OUT AHEAD OF IT...A STEADY STREAM OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
PERSIST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKS TO
PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THINK THAT MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME AT LEAST MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE MORE COMMON AS
WELL...AND SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING ONE OR
MORE BATCHES OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BLOSSOM AND
GENERALLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A LEGITIMATE BREAK FROM RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES DURING PARTS OF
THE AFTERNOON...IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRY DESIGNATING A
TRULY "DRY" PART OF THE DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE...AND POPS IN THE
40-70 PERCENT RANGE DEFINE THE ENTIRE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE MUCH INTENSITY AT ALL IN MOST
AREAS...SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD FLIRT WITH THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSEST TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT BECAUSE
OUR LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ESSENTIALLY ALL DAY...WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE ANY KIND OF
LEGITIMATE STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES TO OUR
WEST. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES
CONTINUE. TEMP-WISE...IF ANYTHING MAY HAVE STILL GONE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN SOME AREAS...BUT HAVE ALREADY LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE
62-66 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO LOOK AS THIS PERIOD IN ABOUT 3
DIFFERENT CHUNKS TIME-WISE.

THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO SAY JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WORK ACROSS OUR
FORECAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE MORE NORTH THAN
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST FOR THE MOST PART. RIGHT NOW HAVE
HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THINGS MAY BE MORE DRIZZLY THAN ANYTHING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS BY LATE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST OF A MCCOOK...KEARNEY...ORD LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE RISK
APPEARS MARGINAL IF THAT...GIVEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITING
INSTABILITY. ON MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST WHICH MAY BE THE
SPARK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS. HARD TO CALL AT THIS POINT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. IF THE
SUN DOES MAKE A SOLID APPEARANCE...A FEW STORMS COULD POP
BUT SHEAR IS WEAK SO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS LOW END.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEM TO BE BEST SHOT FOR A DRY PERIOD
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REFLECT THIS TREND. IN FACT
CHANCES WERE DROPPED QUITE A BIT INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO HOLD
RAIN A BIT FOR THE BETTER PART OF THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPS SHOULD
START TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT WARMER.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD EMBEDDED WAVES COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW. RIGHT NOW IT IS NOT THE CUT-OFF LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WE HAVE SEE IN RECENT WEEKS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THURSDAY...AND WITH SOME WARMER WEATHER...WILL
AGAIN HAVE A POTENTIAL INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...NOT
MENTION IMPACTS TO THE ALREADY HIGH PLATTE RIVER FLOW SHOULD
RAINFALL DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
GENERALLY THE FIRST 2-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...A
DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND AS CEILINGS LOWER AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SEMI-STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWER OR A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED -DZ AND VCSH (VICINITY SHOWER) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CATEGORIES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE EVENTUAL RESULT SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR
CEILING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR
SURFACE WIND...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AT OR BELOW THE 10-15KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PLATTE RIVER CREST IS APPROACHING KEARNEY GAUGE THIS
AFTERNOON. KEARNEY SHOULD TOP OFF ABOUT 7.0 OR 1 FOOT ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THOUGH IT WILL DROP OFF IT WILL DO SO VERY...VERY SLOWLY AND
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR AT LEAST A WEEK OR SO. HIGHER WATER DOWNSTREAM
IN GRAND ISLAND AREA NOW FORCING GRAND ISLAND TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
ON HIGHWAY 34 BRIDGE WITH MINOR FLOODING AROUND EXIT 312 INTERCHANGE
ON SOUTH SIDE. CREST PROBABLY 2 DAY AWAYS THERE. BACK TO THE
WEST...THE COZAD GAUGE SITE IS TECHNICALLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LAND FLOODING IN DAWSON PER DRIVE-THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. REISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MUCH OF DAWSON COUNTY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES LIMITED NEW RAINFALL IN
THE BASIN...AND THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN OUR AREA WITH RELATIVE
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED...BUT UPSTREAM THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY. THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD DROP SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH WATER LEVELS UP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
HYDROLOGY...MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 221755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
GENERALLY THE FIRST 2-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...A
DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND AS CEILINGS LOWER AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SEMI-STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWER OR A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED -DZ AND VCSH (VICINITY SHOWER) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CATEGORIES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE EVENTUAL RESULT SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR
CEILING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR
SURFACE WIND...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AT OR BELOW THE 10-15KT RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 221755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
GENERALLY THE FIRST 2-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...A
DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND AS CEILINGS LOWER AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SEMI-STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWER OR A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED -DZ AND VCSH (VICINITY SHOWER) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CATEGORIES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE EVENTUAL RESULT SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR
CEILING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR
SURFACE WIND...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AT OR BELOW THE 10-15KT RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 221755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
GENERALLY THE FIRST 2-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...A
DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND AS CEILINGS LOWER AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SEMI-STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWER OR A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED -DZ AND VCSH (VICINITY SHOWER) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CATEGORIES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE EVENTUAL RESULT SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR
CEILING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR
SURFACE WIND...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AT OR BELOW THE 10-15KT RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 221755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
GENERALLY THE FIRST 2-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...A
DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
BEYOND AS CEILINGS LOWER AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SEMI-STEADY
LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PASSING HEAVIER
SHOWER OR A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED -DZ AND VCSH (VICINITY SHOWER) FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CATEGORIES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE EVENTUAL RESULT SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR
CEILING...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR
SURFACE WIND...A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AT OR BELOW THE 10-15KT RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 221054
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTELRY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AS LIGHT
RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS OVERTAKE THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS LIGHT RAIN OVERTAKES THE REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE
THEREAFTER..AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE IN THE DAY WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE
TIME BEING. OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 12-15KTS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 221054
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTELRY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AS LIGHT
RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS OVERTAKE THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS LIGHT RAIN OVERTAKES THE REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE
THEREAFTER..AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE IN THE DAY WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE
TIME BEING. OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 12-15KTS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 221054
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTELRY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AS LIGHT
RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS OVERTAKE THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS LIGHT RAIN OVERTAKES THE REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE
THEREAFTER..AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE IN THE DAY WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE
TIME BEING. OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 12-15KTS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 220900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTELRY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD
PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO
MVFR LEVELS BY MID-DAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -DZ AND
BR...AS WELL AS SOME IFR CIGS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP VFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 220900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTELRY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD
PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO
MVFR LEVELS BY MID-DAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -DZ AND
BR...AS WELL AS SOME IFR CIGS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP VFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 220601
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD
PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO
MVFR LEVELS BY MID-DAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -DZ AND
BR...AS WELL AS SOME IFR CIGS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP VFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 220601
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD
PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO
MVFR LEVELS BY MID-DAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -DZ AND
BR...AS WELL AS SOME IFR CIGS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP VFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 220601
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD
PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO
MVFR LEVELS BY MID-DAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -DZ AND
BR...AS WELL AS SOME IFR CIGS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP VFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 220601
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL SPREAD
PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL STRATUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO
MVFR LEVELS BY MID-DAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN -DZ AND
BR...AS WELL AS SOME IFR CIGS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP VFR VSBY AND
MVFR CIGS FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 212321
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS AND EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS SLATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
TAF FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...EWALD
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 212321
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS AND EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS SLATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
TAF FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...EWALD
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 212321
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS AND EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS SLATED TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...MVFR CEILINGS AND INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
TAF FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...EWALD
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 212106
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIRLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HOWEVER...CHANGE IS IN STORE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A
LOWERING CEILING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT IN AT LEAST VCSH BY MID MORNING TO REFLECT
THIS UNCERTAINTY. AGAIN...OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...INSTABILITY IS LACKING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS BELIEVE THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS A DRIZZLE ALL DAY EVENT
RATHER THAN FULL BLOWN HEAVY RAIN. WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 212106
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
QUEBEC WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXISTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SWINGS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MORNING...ROUGHLY 9 TO 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RAIN IS CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EXTENT OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DRYING OUT IN
UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE BY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AIDE IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NOT LOOKING TO SEE MUCH SUN ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO GO A BIT LOWER...AS MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE EXPECTATIONS OF THIS
6-DAY STRETCH FROM YESTERDAY...AS "UNSETTLED/FAIRLY ACTIVE/TROUGHY"
ARE DEFINITELY THE OPERATIVE TERMS. LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE ONE OF
THESE 12 FORECAST PERIODS FEATURES AT LEAST A MODEST 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...IT`S HOPEFULLY COMMON
SENSE TO MOST FOLKS THAT IT WON`S ACTUALLY RAIN AT EVERY GIVEN
LOCATION EVERY SINGLE DAY/NIGHT...BUT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
MAKES IT PRETTY MUCH IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME
FROM HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RIGHT AWAY TO KICK
OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND PROBABLY MOST OF
SUNDAY ARE LOOKING QUITE CLOUDY...AND EVEN IF THERE IS NOT
LEGITIMATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING...PESKY LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO "OBVIOUS" TIME FRAMES THAT APPEAR TO
CARRY A LEGITIMATE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS YET...BUT EVEN AS EARLY
AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES/COMPLEXITIES IN
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IT`S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK COULD BRING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RISE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WILL JUST NEED TO
KEEP EVALUATING ANY UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS A FEW
DAYS AT A TIME AS THINGS DRAW NEARER. FLOODING-WISE...SEE SEPARATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE PLATTE RIVER
SITUATION. HOWEVER...OTHER PARTS OF THE CWA MAY ALSO BECOME PRONE
TO AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF A FEW OF THESE VARIOUS
RAIN CHANCES PAN OUT AND PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 6 DAYS...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S
ON MOST NIGHTS...AS IT`S NOW HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE HAS BREATHED ITS LAST GASP FOR THE SPRING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER MAINLY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY-
SUNDAY COULD TREND COOLER UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER (MAYBE
SOME AREAS STUCK IN THE 50S?)...WHILE DAYS NEXT WEEK SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY END UP WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S
IN SOME AREAS PER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A QUICK LOOK AT SOME
DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS.

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE "SIGNIFICANT" RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE A CLOUDY/DREARY/DRIZZLY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT/PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CWA IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT...MAKING A RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE. KEPT POPS IN "LIKELY" TERRITORY CWA-WIDE AS ODDS ARE MOST
PLACES WILL EXPERIENCE WETNESS OF SOME KIND...WHETHER IT BE FROM
DRIZZLE OR LEGIT HEAVIER SHOWERS. DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...STEADY
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10+ MPH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: BARRING SOME PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN MODEL
TRENDS...THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY LOOKING LIKE A RATHER DAMP/DREARY
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...AS A PARENT LARGER SCALE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FROM FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY INTO
AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HIT-AND-MISS
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF PASSING SHOWERS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN AT LEAST 50-100 MILES WEST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS
EARLIER STATED...HIGHS TEMPS AIMED INTO THE MID 60S COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH PIECES OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE DAY MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS DRIZZLY/GLOOMY AS SATURDAY LOOKS...BUT THAT`S NO
GUARANTEE EITHER. WITH A BIT STRONGER UPPER FORCING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY INCREASE...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD BE SEVERELY HAMPERED. HIGHS ARE
AIMED INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL PROBABLY
DEPEND ON AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN BREAKING OUT.

MONDAY MEMORIAL DAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE MAIN WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT EITHER THE DAY OR
NIGHT CAN BE "GUARANTEED DRY" YET...AND 20-50 POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING LIKE A TRUE
"WASHOUT" THOUGH DESPITE THESE RAIN CHANCES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...THIS 24
HOURS MAY HOLD SOME HOPE OF STAYING MAINLY DRY...BUT BECAUSE THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS CANNOT GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT
POPS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW IS LOOKING
RELATIVELY WEAK...EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE NEXT PIECES
OF ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM YET ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AROUND
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS VERY WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: THE BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST...KEEPING MODEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GOING STRONG FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIRLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HOWEVER...CHANGE IS IN STORE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A
LOWERING CEILING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT IN AT LEAST VCSH BY MID MORNING TO REFLECT
THIS UNCERTAINTY. AGAIN...OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...INSTABILITY IS LACKING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS BELIEVE THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS A DRIZZLE ALL DAY EVENT
RATHER THAN FULL BLOWN HEAVY RAIN. WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION SINCE
YESTERDAY...AS THE THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. KNOWN IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED
GAUGE TRENDS AND THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC)...THE RIVER NEAR COZAD MAY BE SLIPPING
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT COULD
ALSO HOVER RIGHT AT THE FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET FOR A TIME AS
WELL. FARTHER EAST AT THE KEARNEY GAUGE...THE RIVER REMAINS
SOLIDLY ABOVE THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.0 FEET...AND MAY VERY
WELL REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS DESPITE A SLOW FALLING TREND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE OFFICIAL GRAND ISLAND GAUGE ALONG THE HALL-
HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT COULD COME VERY CLOSE THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FORECASTED CREST OF 6.4 FEET.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE
RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES AT
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF THE BASIN SEE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SALTZMAN
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 211736
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS IS SET UP BETWEEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN
KS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND NWRLY FOR CENTRAL/ERN AREAS...MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WEST COAST
LOW...EMERGING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FALL IN THE POST
SUNRISE FRIDAY PERIOD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...SO
THE THUNDER MENTION REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR
MOST...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...AND ALONG
WITH SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH  THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 HOURS...IT REMAINS TO
DIFFICULT THIS MORNING TO PINPOINT THESE TIME PERIODS SO FAR OUT
AND MODEL DATA JUSTIFIES AT LEAST A MENTION IN EVERY 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THAT SAID...CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR A WET START TO THE
EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ JET FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...OPTED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EVIDENT OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS
TOO MEAGER FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...AS WE GET
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...CAPE VALUES BECOME A
BIT MORE RESPECTABLE...BUT SHEAR IS LACKING...SO ODDS OF ANY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...THE FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS
APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER...AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...DESPITE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO
INHERITED FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OFF BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIRLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HOWEVER...CHANGE IS IN STORE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A
LOWERING CEILING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT IN AT LEAST VCSH BY MID MORNING TO REFLECT
THIS UNCERTAINTY. AGAIN...OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...INSTABILITY IS LACKING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS BELIEVE THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS A DRIZZLE ALL DAY EVENT
RATHER THAN FULL BLOWN HEAVY RAIN. WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 211736
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS IS SET UP BETWEEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN
KS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND NWRLY FOR CENTRAL/ERN AREAS...MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WEST COAST
LOW...EMERGING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FALL IN THE POST
SUNRISE FRIDAY PERIOD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...SO
THE THUNDER MENTION REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR
MOST...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...AND ALONG
WITH SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH  THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 HOURS...IT REMAINS TO
DIFFICULT THIS MORNING TO PINPOINT THESE TIME PERIODS SO FAR OUT
AND MODEL DATA JUSTIFIES AT LEAST A MENTION IN EVERY 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THAT SAID...CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR A WET START TO THE
EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ JET FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...OPTED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EVIDENT OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS
TOO MEAGER FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...AS WE GET
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...CAPE VALUES BECOME A
BIT MORE RESPECTABLE...BUT SHEAR IS LACKING...SO ODDS OF ANY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...THE FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS
APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER...AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...DESPITE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO
INHERITED FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OFF BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIRLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HOWEVER...CHANGE IS IN STORE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A
LOWERING CEILING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE TAF
SITES...BUT BROUGHT IN AT LEAST VCSH BY MID MORNING TO REFLECT
THIS UNCERTAINTY. AGAIN...OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...INSTABILITY IS LACKING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS BELIEVE THUNDER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS A DRIZZLE ALL DAY EVENT
RATHER THAN FULL BLOWN HEAVY RAIN. WHILE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 211130
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS IS SET UP BETWEEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN
KS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND NWRLY FOR CENTRAL/ERN AREAS...MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WEST COAST
LOW...EMERGING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FALL IN THE POST
SUNRISE FRIDAY PERIOD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...SO
THE THUNDER MENTION REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR
MOST...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...AND ALONG
WITH SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH  THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 HOURS...IT REMAINS TO
DIFFICULT THIS MORNING TO PINPOINT THESE TIME PERIODS SO FAR OUT
AND MODEL DATA JUSTIFIES AT LEAST A MENTION IN EVERY 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THAT SAID...CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR A WET START TO THE
EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ JET FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...OPTED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EVIDENT OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS
TOO MEAGER FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...AS WE GET
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...CAPE VALUES BECOME A
BIT MORE RESPECTABLE...BUT SHEAR IS LACKING...SO ODDS OF ANY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...THE FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS
APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER...AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...DESPITE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO
INHERITED FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OFF BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. ANY CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY BUT AT TIMES
VARIABLE SIDE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH S/SERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 211130
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS IS SET UP BETWEEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN
KS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND NWRLY FOR CENTRAL/ERN AREAS...MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WEST COAST
LOW...EMERGING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FALL IN THE POST
SUNRISE FRIDAY PERIOD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...SO
THE THUNDER MENTION REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR
MOST...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...AND ALONG
WITH SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH  THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 HOURS...IT REMAINS TO
DIFFICULT THIS MORNING TO PINPOINT THESE TIME PERIODS SO FAR OUT
AND MODEL DATA JUSTIFIES AT LEAST A MENTION IN EVERY 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THAT SAID...CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR A WET START TO THE
EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ JET FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...OPTED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EVIDENT OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS
TOO MEAGER FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...AS WE GET
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...CAPE VALUES BECOME A
BIT MORE RESPECTABLE...BUT SHEAR IS LACKING...SO ODDS OF ANY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...THE FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS
APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER...AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...DESPITE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO
INHERITED FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OFF BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. ANY CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10K FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY BUT AT TIMES
VARIABLE SIDE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH S/SERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 210810
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
310 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS IS SET UP BETWEEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN
KS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND NWRLY FOR CENTRAL/ERN AREAS...MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WEST COAST
LOW...EMERGING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FALL IN THE POST
SUNRISE FRIDAY PERIOD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...SO
THE THUNDER MENTION REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR
MOST...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...AND ALONG
WITH SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH  THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 HOURS...IT REMAINS TO
DIFFICULT THIS MORNING TO PINPOINT THESE TIME PERIODS SO FAR OUT
AND MODEL DATA JUSTIFIES AT LEAST A MENTION IN EVERY 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THAT SAID...CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR A WET START TO THE
EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ JET FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...OPTED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EVIDENT OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS
TOO MEAGER FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...AS WE GET
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...CAPE VALUES BECOME A
BIT MORE RESPECTABLE...BUT SHEAR IS LACKING...SO ODDS OF ANY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...THE FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS
APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER...AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...DESPITE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO
INHERITED FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OFF BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO KEEP
QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 210810
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
310 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER LEVEL AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SRN PLAINS IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS IS SET UP BETWEEN A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A HUDSON BAY LOW SLIDING SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WHICH KEPT THE CWA CLOUDY ALL DAY
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...AND OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH OVER WRN NEB INTO WRN
KS...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND NWRLY FOR CENTRAL/ERN AREAS...MORE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WEST COAST
LOW...EMERGING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST. THE BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FALL IN THE POST
SUNRISE FRIDAY PERIOD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...SO
THE THUNDER MENTION REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THAT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR
MOST...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...AND ALONG
WITH SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER/MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH  THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE EVENTUALLY THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS
IN ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 HOURS...IT REMAINS TO
DIFFICULT THIS MORNING TO PINPOINT THESE TIME PERIODS SO FAR OUT
AND MODEL DATA JUSTIFIES AT LEAST A MENTION IN EVERY 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THAT SAID...CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH FOR A WET START TO THE
EXTENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE LLJ JET FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...OPTED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM FREE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE EVIDENT OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS
TOO MEAGER FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...AS WE GET
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...CAPE VALUES BECOME A
BIT MORE RESPECTABLE...BUT SHEAR IS LACKING...SO ODDS OF ANY
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH
MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN SO...THE FORCING FROM THESE SYSTEMS
APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER...AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...DESPITE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE WISE...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS TO
INHERITED FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO START OFF BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO KEEP
QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 210538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FELT NECESSARY TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF PATCHY FROST.
DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING STRONG SO OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF AT THIS POINT...AND SINCE NO DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN TONIGHT AM CONFIDENT IN HOLDING OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SEEING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST WILL BE LIMITED...AND HENCE WILL REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE FOR
OUR OUTLOOK AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO KEEP
QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 210538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FELT NECESSARY TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF PATCHY FROST.
DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING STRONG SO OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF AT THIS POINT...AND SINCE NO DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN TONIGHT AM CONFIDENT IN HOLDING OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SEEING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST WILL BE LIMITED...AND HENCE WILL REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE FOR
OUR OUTLOOK AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO KEEP
QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 210538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FELT NECESSARY TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF PATCHY FROST.
DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING STRONG SO OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF AT THIS POINT...AND SINCE NO DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN TONIGHT AM CONFIDENT IN HOLDING OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SEEING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST WILL BE LIMITED...AND HENCE WILL REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE FOR
OUR OUTLOOK AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO KEEP
QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 210538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FELT NECESSARY TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF PATCHY FROST.
DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING STRONG SO OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF AT THIS POINT...AND SINCE NO DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN TONIGHT AM CONFIDENT IN HOLDING OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SEEING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST WILL BE LIMITED...AND HENCE WILL REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE FOR
OUR OUTLOOK AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO KEEP
QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. LIGHT AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 210218
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FELT NECESSARY TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF PATCHY FROST.
DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING STRONG SO OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF AT THIS POINT...AND SINCE NO DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN TONIGHT AM CONFIDENT IN HOLDING OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SEEING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST WILL BE LIMITED...AND HENCE WILL REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE FOR
OUR OUTLOOK AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 210218
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
918 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF CLOUD COVER AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FELT NECESSARY TO ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF PATCHY FROST.
DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING STRONG SO OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE TOO FAR OFF AT THIS POINT...AND SINCE NO DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN TONIGHT AM CONFIDENT IN HOLDING OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SEEING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST WILL BE LIMITED...AND HENCE WILL REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE FOR
OUR OUTLOOK AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 210041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
741 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 210041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
741 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 210041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
741 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 210041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
741 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FROST POTENTIAL COULD VERY
WELL END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IF CLOUD COVERS BREAKS EVEN
FASTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAR FROM FROST AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS ARE
FORECAST AT 40 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED...SO CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUERRERO
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 202338
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 202338
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TO DEVELOP LATER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE TERMINALS...SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND EXACTLY HOW FAST
WE CAN CLEAR OUT. AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND NEAR SUNRISE TO SUPPRESS ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND THUS CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS
OTHER THAN VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 202107
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND...THE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE EVENING ARE THE CONTINUING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST HOUR AND MOSTLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS SHOULD END AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS
IT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THIN
SPOTS OR EVEN A SMALL BREAK OR TWO...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS
THE MOISTURE. WITH ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION TODAY...THE DEW POINTS
ARE STILL AROUND 40 DEGREES. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE MORE TO GET THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WITH THE MOISTURE. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FROST FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

IN SHORT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ALMOST
THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH EVERY SINGLE DAY AND NIGHT FEATURING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE...THE
ODDS OF IT ACTUALLY RAINING AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION EACH AND EVERY
DAY/NIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF RAINY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY...AND IT IS JUST IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO
TRY FINDING ANY FORECAST PERIODS WHERE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IS
NOT WARRANTED. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THEY ARE
ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO VERY LITTLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOW- END...MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK TYPE OF SEVERE SETUPS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EVIDENT MAINLY
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...BUT AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK THAT PREDICTABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW/UNCERTAINTY JUST
TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO "HIGHLIGHT" ANY PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME...AS NONE OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS POINT. IN OTHER WORDS...PINNING DOWN SEVERE WEATHER
PROSPECTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY
END UP BEING MORE OF A "TAKE IT 1 OR 2 DAYS AT A TIME" AFFAIR.

WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA HAS RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT SUCH AS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER...OBVIOUSLY THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF ANY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL
EVENTS MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IT/S JUST TOO HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR
NOT FLOODING WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE BEYOND THE PLATTE RIVER
GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS DAY-TO-DAY CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. FOR MORE
DETAILS SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SEPARATE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH
THE MULTITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE/NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL-
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
POTENTIALLY ONLY INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SATURDAY BEFORE MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. AGAIN THOUGH...UNCERTAINTY
QUICKLY GROWS BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND WE COULD EASILY SEE 5+
DEGREE UPWARD/DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...HERE IS A BIT MORE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES)...THIS IS ABOUT THE ONLY LONG TERM
PERIOD THAT CARRIES A DECENT CHANCE OF STAYING DRY. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE...BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
NIGHT. WITH INSTABILITY ALMOST NIL...OPTED TO PULL OUT THE
PREVIOUS MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMP-WISE...INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD KEEP ALL AREAS SAFELY ABOVE
FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED BETWEEN 42-47.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA MAINLY
DURING THE DAY...SPREADING FAIRLY DECENT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/SPOTTY SHOWERS. KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY BE ON SHAKY GROUND WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE STORMS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AT LEAST LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY RETURNS. NUDGED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY REACHING 55-60 DEGREES...WHICH
COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF WE ARE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE NIGHT HOURS
VERSUS THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY THIS TIME AS WELL.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THAT CONTAINS VARIOUS...HARD-TO-
TIME EMBEDDED WAVES. 30-50 POPS CONTINUE ALL AREAS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
"WASHOUT"...ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE A DRY/STORM-FREE MEMORIAL
DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAINLY 20-40
POPS FOR NOW.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME: THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND A BIT WEAKER ALOFT AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET SUPPORT SHIFTS AWAY...BUT IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY INCREASE VERSUS
PREVIOUS DAYS SO 20-40 POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH RECENT RAIN. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SLOWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT IT MAY OPEN THE
DOOR TO SOME EARLY AM PATCH FOG. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE SAME TWO PLATTE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
SEGMENTS THAT WE HAVE HAD OUT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW CONTINUE...ONE
GENERALLY COVERING THE REACH OF THE RIVER FROM GOTHENBURG-
LEXINGTON...AND THE OTHER COVERING THE STRETCH FROM NEAR KEARNEY-
DONIPHAN. AS EXPECTED...KNOWN IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MAINLY
LIMITED TO MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IF ANYTHING HAS
POTENTIALLY CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT IS THAT UNCERTAINTY
HAS GROWN REGARDING JUST HOW LONG PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE WITHIN
OUR CWA COULD REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO
RECENT UPSTREAM RAINFALL THAT COULD BRING A SMALLER SECONDARY
CREST...AND ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL FALL FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITHIN/NEAR THE LOCAL PLATTE BASIN.
THIS LATEST ROUND OF FORECASTS AS INITIALIZED BY THE MISSOURI
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER (MBRFC) SUGGESTS THAT THE DAWSON
COUNTY PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD START SLIPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
KEARNEY-AREA PORTION OF THE RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AT THE "GRAND ISLAND
GAUGE" ALONG THE HALL-HAMILTON COUNTY LINE...THE RIVER IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO BREACH OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET...BUT
COULD COME QUITE CLOSE BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER...WITH A
FORECAST CREST OF 6.3 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

IN CLOSING AND IN SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ANY PLATTE RIVER FLOODING
WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE RIVER WILL SOLIDLY DROP
BACK BELOW OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS IN THIS FLUID SITUATION (PUN
INTENDED).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BEDA
HYDROLOGY...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 201724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH RECENT RAIN. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SLOWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT IT MAY OPEN THE
DOOR TO SOME EARLY AM PATCH FOG. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BEDA




000
FXUS63 KGID 201724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH RECENT RAIN. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SLOWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT IT MAY OPEN THE
DOOR TO SOME EARLY AM PATCH FOG. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BEDA




000
FXUS63 KGID 201724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH RECENT RAIN. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SLOWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT IT MAY OPEN THE
DOOR TO SOME EARLY AM PATCH FOG. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BEDA





000
FXUS63 KGID 201124
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PERIOD LIE DURING THE MORNING
HOUR...WITH -DZ AND MVFR TO IRF CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY VCSH AND -DZ/ GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL ALL COME TO AN END IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR/SUB 1K FT CEILINGS
AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...AND ARE INCLUDED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE
LATER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHEN
THAT WILL OCCUR. NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN WINDS EXPECTED...REMAINING
N/NERLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE N/NWRLY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 201124
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PERIOD LIE DURING THE MORNING
HOUR...WITH -DZ AND MVFR TO IRF CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY VCSH AND -DZ/ GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL ALL COME TO AN END IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR/SUB 1K FT CEILINGS
AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...AND ARE INCLUDED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE
LATER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHEN
THAT WILL OCCUR. NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN WINDS EXPECTED...REMAINING
N/NERLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE N/NWRLY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 201124
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PERIOD LIE DURING THE MORNING
HOUR...WITH -DZ AND MVFR TO IRF CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY VCSH AND -DZ/ GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL ALL COME TO AN END IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR/SUB 1K FT CEILINGS
AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...AND ARE INCLUDED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE
LATER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHEN
THAT WILL OCCUR. NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN WINDS EXPECTED...REMAINING
N/NERLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE N/NWRLY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 201124
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PERIOD LIE DURING THE MORNING
HOUR...WITH -DZ AND MVFR TO IRF CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY VCSH AND -DZ/ GOING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL ALL COME TO AN END IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR/SUB 1K FT CEILINGS
AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...AND ARE INCLUDED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE
LATER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHEN
THAT WILL OCCUR. NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN WINDS EXPECTED...REMAINING
N/NERLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE N/NWRLY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 200845
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS LOW...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 200845
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS LOW...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 200528
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH TONIGHT AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND KMCK HAS ALREADY TALLIED OVER
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTN. INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
THIS PCPN EVENT AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT RAINFALL WITH NO TSTM
ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER WAVE REACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE EARLY AFTN WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE AND HAVE LINGERED SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC NEB. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM AND COMBINED WITH THE COOL
AIRMASS TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS JUST AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WOULD BE IF IT WAS CLEAR. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THE WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY SO HAVE
JUST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN OPENS
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THE SAME WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A LITTLE AND WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS LOW...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 200528
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH TONIGHT AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND KMCK HAS ALREADY TALLIED OVER
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTN. INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
THIS PCPN EVENT AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT RAINFALL WITH NO TSTM
ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER WAVE REACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE EARLY AFTN WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE AND HAVE LINGERED SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC NEB. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM AND COMBINED WITH THE COOL
AIRMASS TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS JUST AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WOULD BE IF IT WAS CLEAR. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THE WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY SO HAVE
JUST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN OPENS
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THE SAME WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A LITTLE AND WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS LOW...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 200528
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH TONIGHT AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND KMCK HAS ALREADY TALLIED OVER
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTN. INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
THIS PCPN EVENT AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT RAINFALL WITH NO TSTM
ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER WAVE REACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE EARLY AFTN WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE AND HAVE LINGERED SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC NEB. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM AND COMBINED WITH THE COOL
AIRMASS TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS JUST AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WOULD BE IF IT WAS CLEAR. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THE WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY SO HAVE
JUST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN OPENS
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THE SAME WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A LITTLE AND WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS LOW...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 200528
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH TONIGHT AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND KMCK HAS ALREADY TALLIED OVER
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTN. INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
THIS PCPN EVENT AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT RAINFALL WITH NO TSTM
ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER WAVE REACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE EARLY AFTN WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE AND HAVE LINGERED SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC NEB. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM AND COMBINED WITH THE COOL
AIRMASS TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS JUST AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WOULD BE IF IT WAS CLEAR. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THE WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY SO HAVE
JUST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN OPENS
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THE SAME WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A LITTLE AND WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS LOW...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 200011
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
711 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH TONIGHT AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND KMCK HAS ALREADY TALLIED OVER
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTN. INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
THIS PCPN EVENT AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT RAINFALL WITH NO TSTM
ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER WAVE REACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE EARLY AFTN WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE AND HAVE LINGERED SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC NEB. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM AND COMBINED WITH THE COOL
AIRMASS TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS JUST AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WOULD BE IF IT WAS CLEAR. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THE WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY SO HAVE
JUST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN OPENS
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THE SAME WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A LITTLE AND WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODIC VFR CONDITIONS TO
START THE TAF PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AND AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD WITH 0VC020 UNTIL 21Z. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AND GO WITH
VFR 21Z ONWARD...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES. PRECIPITATION ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH -RA THROUGH 12Z. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 18KTS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT
DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF PERIODIC
RESTRICTION TO AROUND 5SM COULD RESULT IN RAINFALL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 200011
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
711 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH TONIGHT AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND KMCK HAS ALREADY TALLIED OVER
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTN. INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
THIS PCPN EVENT AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT RAINFALL WITH NO TSTM
ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER WAVE REACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH RAIN
CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN WILL LIFT OUT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE EARLY AFTN WILL BE
PRECIPITATION FREE AND HAVE LINGERED SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC NEB. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM AND COMBINED WITH THE COOL
AIRMASS TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS JUST AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WOULD BE IF IT WAS CLEAR. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST THE WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY SO HAVE
JUST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY THEN OPENS
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THE SAME WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A LITTLE AND WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODIC VFR CONDITIONS TO
START THE TAF PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AND AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD WITH 0VC020 UNTIL 21Z. WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AND GO WITH
VFR 21Z ONWARD...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES. PRECIPITATION ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH -RA THROUGH 12Z. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 18KTS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT
DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF PERIODIC
RESTRICTION TO AROUND 5SM COULD RESULT IN RAINFALL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT





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