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000
FXUS63 KGID 061735
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD LIE WITH SKY
COVER AND WINDS. THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AREAS...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLAY FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 061735
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD LIE WITH SKY
COVER AND WINDS. THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AREAS...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLAY FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 061045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR THE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE.
CIG HEIGHT IS UNCERTAIN WITH UPSTREAM CIGS AT IFR. HAVE LOWERED
CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AFTER
FROPA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
30KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE SFC
GRADIENT RELAXES. CLOUDS LOOK TO SCATTER BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 061045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR THE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE.
CIG HEIGHT IS UNCERTAIN WITH UPSTREAM CIGS AT IFR. HAVE LOWERED
CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AFTER
FROPA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
30KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE SFC
GRADIENT RELAXES. CLOUDS LOOK TO SCATTER BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 061045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR THE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE.
CIG HEIGHT IS UNCERTAIN WITH UPSTREAM CIGS AT IFR. HAVE LOWERED
CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AFTER
FROPA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
30KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE SFC
GRADIENT RELAXES. CLOUDS LOOK TO SCATTER BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 061045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE CARRIED A VCTS FOR THE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE.
CIG HEIGHT IS UNCERTAIN WITH UPSTREAM CIGS AT IFR. HAVE LOWERED
CIGS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. AFTER
FROPA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
30KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE SFC
GRADIENT RELAXES. CLOUDS LOOK TO SCATTER BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 060847
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015


GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH STORMS...THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CHCS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSING FRONT. ONCE BOUNDARY
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL TRANSITION NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THE
BETTER PRESSURE RISES OCCUR IN THE AFTN/EVE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. CIGS LOOK TO
BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS BUT MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS AND WILL MONITOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 060847
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALOFT THE WESTERN EXTENT AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
SOUTHEAST THRU MT AND THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THRU WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOCUSED SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH TSTM CHCS EXISTING
WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMING OF THE
FROPA...BUT THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUR CWA BY EARLY AFTN OR WHETHER OR NOT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
PLAN TO GO WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR FRONTAL POSITION FOR
TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER...COOLER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH WITH DPS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 50S. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE A SOLID 10C TO 15C FROM SUNDAY AFTN TO TODAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 3 TO 5 MB. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ONTO THE PLAINS. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL AND AVERAGE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015


GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
EXIST ACROSS REGION TO STAR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A ~30KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE CONVECTION WHICH COULD WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-60% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THESE LOWS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH STORMS...THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CHCS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSING FRONT. ONCE BOUNDARY
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL TRANSITION NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THE
BETTER PRESSURE RISES OCCUR IN THE AFTN/EVE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. CIGS LOOK TO
BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS BUT MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS AND WILL MONITOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 060516
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH STORMS...THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CHCS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSING FRONT. ONCE BOUNDARY
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL TRANSITION NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THE
BETTER PRESSURE RISES OCCUR IN THE AFTN/EVE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. CIGS LOOK TO
BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS BUT MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS AND WILL MONITOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 060516
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH STORMS...THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CHCS FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSING FRONT. ONCE BOUNDARY
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL TRANSITION NORTHERLY AND INCREASE. THE
BETTER PRESSURE RISES OCCUR IN THE AFTN/EVE AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES. CIGS LOOK TO
BE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS BUT MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS AND WILL MONITOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 060455
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 060455
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FARTHER EAST FOR THE EVENING COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 052359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 052359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 052359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 052359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS A WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE TIME
STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 052035
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AIDE IN KEEPING
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MID MORNING. LOWERED CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY IF NOT OVER THE
TAF SITE BY MID MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 052035
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN EXACT TIMING AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE JET STREAM LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SPOKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WHILE MOISTURE IS DRIVEN UP AND OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...ATTACHED TO THE VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW OVER QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS
WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO SEND THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW FROPA DOWN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BELIEVE THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
TRI-CITIES IN THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE
STAND THE CHANCE AT BEING ON THE LOSING END OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST
AND FOREMOST THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE THE BEST JET LIFT WILL BE.
ALSO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED HINDER OUR
PRECIPITATION CAPABILITY BY NOT TAPPING INTO THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY. SO REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION BUT NEITHER ARE INITIALIZING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION
VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LESSER QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT...MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A
QUARTER OF A INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LESS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PEAK HITTING WILL
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE FRONT HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. AS NORMAL WITH FROPA...STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
BEHIND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A PLEASANT START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TUESDAY COULD BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH MAINLY CLOUD FREE
SKIES.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BRINGING SEVERAL...MAINLY
SMALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE WET EVERY
SINGLE PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ENHANCED BY THE
LLJ.

LATE IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AIDE IN KEEPING
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MID MORNING. LOWERED CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY IF NOT OVER THE
TAF SITE BY MID MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 051658
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AIDE IN KEEPING
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MID MORNING. LOWERED CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY IF NOT OVER THE
TAF SITE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 051658
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AIDE IN KEEPING
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT QUITE CERTAIN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MID MORNING. LOWERED CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY IF NOT OVER THE
TAF SITE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 051048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THRU THE DAY. EARLY MORNING ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS.
CHCS FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z MONDAY HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION FOR
NOW UNTIL TIMING BECOMES CLEARER. THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 12Z MONDAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 051048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THRU THE DAY. EARLY MORNING ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS.
CHCS FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z MONDAY HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION FOR
NOW UNTIL TIMING BECOMES CLEARER. THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 12Z MONDAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 051048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THRU THE DAY. EARLY MORNING ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS.
CHCS FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z MONDAY HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION FOR
NOW UNTIL TIMING BECOMES CLEARER. THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 12Z MONDAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 051048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THRU THE DAY. EARLY MORNING ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS.
CHCS FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD 12Z MONDAY HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION FOR
NOW UNTIL TIMING BECOMES CLEARER. THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 12Z MONDAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 050819
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 050819
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FINALLY STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE LLVL JET HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 40KTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 315K
ISENTROPIC SFC AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM12 AND IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD
TRUE...THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND
EVENTUALLY WANE THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A HIT OR MISS STRONG
STORM IN PRESENCE OF DECENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW IN MANITOBA TRANSLATES SOUTEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHUNT THE
WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN AIRMASS CHANGE MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE.

UNTIL THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A HOT DAY
TEMPERATUREWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 25C TO 31C RANGE E/W
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING WELL ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE
90S THIS AFTN BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE
DEEP MIXING AND TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS SHLD
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

AFTER ANY MORNING CONVECTION...THE DAYTIME AND REALLY THE EVENING
HOURS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE 12
TO 15C RANGE. CHCS FOR TSTMS INCREASE AFTER DARK AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM HOWEVER NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED
NORTH OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH
STEADY SOUTH WINDS CARRYING INTO THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NOT LOOKING FOR THAT AIRMASS CHANGE UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THRU MORE SO ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED.

STARTING OUT MONDAY AT 12Z...UPPER AIR PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE THE
SOUTHERN END OF A CANADIAN TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEB. A SLOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
NAM...GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WOULD PLACE THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT LINE SOMEWHERE FROM GREELEY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLPSBURG...BUT
THIS COULD BE 50 MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT
STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.
OF COURSE IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND DOES NOT EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

IF THINGS PAN OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED...MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY AS VERY COOL AIR FOR JULY
PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAYS HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO MORNING RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT A NICE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS AND EC MODELS SLIDE A MID LEVEL WAVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE EC IS
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
DAMPENS THE RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
24 HOURS AGO THE SOLUTIONS WERE JUST THE OPPOSITE...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IT MAY BE HOT AND DRY...OR WARM
WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 050511
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.

THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 050511
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.

THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 050511
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.

THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 050511
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.

THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP
BY MID MORNING AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY THRU THE DAY AND THRU THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS COMMON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT AND THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHC A STORM MAY REACH THE TERMINALS HOWEVER CHCS ARE
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 042041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.

THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 042041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CENTER AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY WITH THOSE
CHANCES.

THE SYNOPTIC SET UP TODAY SHOWS MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS TRUDGES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE ALLOWED TO SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION CREATING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ONE
SUCH WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS PREVALENT IN MODELS
ON BOTH THE 500 AND 700 MB LEVELS AS WELL AS IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE IS ALSO ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LACK THEREOF. MAIN STREAM MODELS SEEM TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WHILE OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4 KM
WRF AND HRRR INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE LBF SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP THIS MORNING...WHILE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY REMAINS IN TACT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION...THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALIZE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD OFF
THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MODEL EVEN PLACES THE NOSE OF THE LLJ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...WHICH COULD PROMOTE SUNRISE SURPRISE
STORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS FOR SEVERITY...THE BEST SEVERE PARAMETERS LIE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AND WHILE DECENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE RANGE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG...BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY IN THE 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHTS OR CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INDEED PREVALENT TOMORROW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 33 DEGREES CELSIUS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANYONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOULD CLOUDS LINGER FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SKY ROCKETING TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DRY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPEED UP THIS IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES FLATTENS OUT AND MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
PLAINS.

THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES...CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS SLIGHTLY IN
QUESTION...WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF
PRECIP A BIT IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS FOR
MONDAY...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...HOWEVER...WITH THIS LATER TIMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE INCREASED POPS...THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ACTUALLY VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY NON-EXISTENT...
DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AT
LEAST A DRY DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS
NOT FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS LIFT OVER THIS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT QUITE HONESTLY...THESE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF WEAK
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHICH ONLY JUSTIFIES VERY LOW END
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SO ALL IS ALL...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A SEASONABLY
COOL START TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 041724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 041724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 041724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 041724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 041309
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
809 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VISIBILITY HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THUS
REMOVED ALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 041309
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
809 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VISIBILITY HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THUS
REMOVED ALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN





000
FXUS63 KGID 041309
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
809 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VISIBILITY HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THUS
REMOVED ALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 041309
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
809 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VISIBILITY HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THUS
REMOVED ALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...SALTZMAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 041033
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE MINOR VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS A SFC
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES OR HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE KEPT CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 041033
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE MINOR VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS A SFC
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES OR HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE KEPT CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 041033
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE MINOR VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS A SFC
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES OR HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE KEPT CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 041033
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE MINOR VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS A SFC
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES OR HIGH PLAINS REGION. HAVE KEPT CLOUDS AT VFR LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 040907
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY MID MORNING SATURDAY. CANNOT COMLETELY
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LATE SATURDAY
HOWEVER CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 040907
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
407 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE MOST PART FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FOR JULY 4TH...WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS RETURNING BY LATE AFTN/TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS
DEAMPLIFIED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE
WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES WERE
RELATIVELY COOL IN THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE
60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS SETTING UP BY MID MORNING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
THIS AFTN ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS AND WHILE WINDS WILL NOT
BE OVERLY STRONG TODAY...THERE WILL BE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION AND H85 TEMPS INCREASE AROUND 3C COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F E/W.

REGARDING CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR
NORTHWEST MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. SO
FAR THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE WAA
AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO AND
WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION IN. THIS BEING SAID...BETTER CHCS FOR
DEVELOPMENT FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY...WITH CHCS
SPREADING EAST INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 40KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THEN SMALLER CHANCES OFF AND ON LATER IN THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE STARTING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT OF
A MESSY PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST NDAK TO EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THAT AND COULD SEE THAT HAPPEN WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THEM RATHER THAN
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP TEMPS WHERE THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE
AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND MOST ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING STARTING OUT WITH
LOWER POPS AND THEN RAMPING THEM UP FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA ON
MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL FAIRLY HIGH MONDAY FROM 12-18Z
WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE
CONCERNED WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
SDAK ALONG WITH NORTHERN NEB IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH INCLUDES THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE BEST DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS COMPARED TO 20-30 KT IN
NORTHERN KS. THEY ALSO HAVE HIGHEST CAPE NORTHWEST OF US AT 06Z IN
THE REGION OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA JUST HIGH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GIVE US AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD QUIET DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID
WEEK AND MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE US OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GFS ALSO HINTING AT A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD WARM
THINGS UP SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THAT PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY MID MORNING SATURDAY. CANNOT COMLETELY
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LATE SATURDAY
HOWEVER CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 040515
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TOOK OUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SINCE
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AS OF YET...CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW
THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS AND DECREASES ANY MEAGER INSTABILITY THAT WE MAY HAVE
HAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY MID MORNING SATURDAY. CANNOT COMLETELY
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LATE SATURDAY
HOWEVER CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 040515
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TOOK OUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SINCE
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AS OF YET...CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW
THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS AND DECREASES ANY MEAGER INSTABILITY THAT WE MAY HAVE
HAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY MID MORNING SATURDAY. CANNOT COMLETELY
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LATE SATURDAY
HOWEVER CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 040014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TOOK OUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SINCE
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AS OF YET...CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW
THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS AND DECREASES ANY MEAGER INSTABILITY THAT WE MAY HAVE
HAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EAST. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE WEST AND COULD HELP INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN KEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THIS
FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 040014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

TOOK OUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SINCE
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AS OF YET...CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW
THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS AND DECREASES ANY MEAGER INSTABILITY THAT WE MAY HAVE
HAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EAST. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE WEST AND COULD HELP INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN KEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THIS
FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 032357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EAST. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE WEST AND COULD HELP INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN KEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 032357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EAST. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE WEST AND COULD HELP INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN KEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 032357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EAST. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE WEST AND COULD HELP INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN KEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 032357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 60KTS
NEAR 36000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS
FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED WEAKEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR
AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS LIKELY...A COUPLE SETS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. POPS WERE ALREADY IN
EXISTENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH 20% POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN KEEP US DRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THAT SAID...THERE REMAIN SUBTLE SIGNS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...ALSO WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA STARTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE MUCH
GREATER THAN 1000J/KG BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR WILL BE A TOUCH MORE RESPECTABLE AT ~30KTS...THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEARS VERY
LOW AND AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRECIPITATION-WISE: TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD...THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS: 1) A STILL UNCERTAIN/IFFY SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT MOST AREAS AND THEN LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. 2) A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
FEATURE THE RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AND THEN 3)
VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM NOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM CHANCES IS A REASONABLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME (SAVE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING STORMS RIGHT
MONDAY EVENING IN A FEW SOUTHEAST COUNTIES).

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES: STARTING OFF WITH THE FIRST...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THIS IS
ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROBABLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND NOT TO MENTION THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW PUTS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA INTO A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT RISK FAR WEST...THE
CONFIDENCE IN HAVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FIRST PLACE CURRENTLY ARGUES TO "DOWNPLAY" THIS RISK A BIT
FOR NOW. AS A RESULT...WILL ACKNOWLEDGE SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) BUT
FOREGO A SEVERE MENTION. CERTAINTLY A BIT GREATER RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME
FRAME DUE TO STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
HOURS...THE LOCAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST...AND AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTH OF THE CWA. FINALLY
FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM CHANCES...INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS JUST FAR TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CHANCES
WITH ANY KIND OF DETAIL.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS A WHOLE...THESE 6 DAYS LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH THE LARGEST SWING
IN DAY-TO-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARING TO COME RIGHT AWAY FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COOL-DOWN TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HAVE
NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR UPPER 80S/LOW 90S MOST
NEBRASKA ZONES AND MORE SO MID 90S IN KS. A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN
KS COULD ALSO FLIRT WITH 100-DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES...BUT THIS
IS STILL SAFELY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE THEN ONLY AIMED INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOW
80S CWA-WIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK THEN LOOKS TO FEATURE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S...ALTHOUGH A WARM-UP TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90 IS VERY PRELIMINARY ADVERTISED FOR
MOST OF THE CWA NEXT FRIDAY.

NOW TAKING A BRIEF LOOK AT DAILY DETAILS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: EVEN AT THIS REASONABLY CLOSE TIME
RANGE...UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIT
AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND 4KM WRF-
NMM/ARW LARGELY SUGGEST A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS) ARE MORE ROBUST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WHICH SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING
AND AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
POSSIBILITIES...WILL MAINTAIN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT WANT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE OF THINGS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE EVENING THAN TURNING
WET/STORMY. IN OTHER WORDS...NOBODY SHOULD BE CHANGING THEIR PLANS
JUT YET FOR THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE MORNING...HAVE
MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF A DRY/CAPPED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INVADES SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AS WELL.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY FADES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIME...DECENT SHOWER/WEAK STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY. WILL LEAVE A LOW-END CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES IN
THE EVENING...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE LOW-LEVEL SCENE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY DAYTIME: AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...VARIOUS...MAINLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY "WETTER" THAN THE ECMWF IN THE RAW
QPF FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS EAST. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE WEST AND COULD HELP INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN KEAR...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




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