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000
FXUS63 KGID 092111
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
311 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

ALOFT: NNW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW THRU TOMORROW AS
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF BEGINS. HEIGHTS WILL
RISE ABOUT 120 M. NO SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATIONS ARE ENVISIONED.

SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED NEB/KS AND EXTENDED NNW INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCH E OF THE
FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT 30 HRS AS A WEAK CLIPPER DIVES SSE ALONG
IT... INTO ND BY DAWN WED AND INTO NEB IN THE AFTERNOON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: M/CLOUDY. THERE IS A LONGITUDINAL BAND OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED JET.

TONIGHT: M/CLOUDY. THERE IS SOME WEAK FGEN ALONG THE FRONT...AND
SOME INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DEVELOP ABOVE IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
NO SYNOPTIC FORCING...SO LIFT IS MINIMAL. WE`VE SEEN SOME LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS OVER SD. MOST OF IT HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE
GROUND...BUT DID MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WELL N OF
I-80.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS 6-12F ABOVE NORMAL.

WED: CLEARING FROM W-E WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL COULD SEE A
FEW FLURRIES WELL N OF I-80 FORENOON. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS. FULL SUN AND NO SNOW WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S! BUT CRUSTY SNOWCOVER IS A MAJOR COMPLICATION.

LAST SAT LOOKED VERY WARM TOO...BUT EFFECTS OF SNOWCOVER
DOMINATED AND THE TEMP PROFILE WAS HIGHLY INVERTED. SO USED BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS WHICH OFFERS 40S OVER THE
SNOW AND 50S WHERE THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SNOW OVER N-CNTRL KS.
THIS COULD BE OVERDONE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE LONG TERM IS RATHER QUIET WEATHER-WISE. OVERALL...NOTEWORTHY
ITEMS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND THE SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. WE WILL BE
UNDER MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE AT THIS TIME
AND NOTHING TO RAISE FLAGS OVER. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES...BUT AGAIN
NOTHING LOOKS ANYWHERE NEAR DAUNTING FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WILL
COOL DOWN SATURDAY TO BELOW NORMAL AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. THOSE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF AS WE
WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY TO END THE LONG TERM TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 FOR PLACES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: NONE.

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR CIGS 6-7K FT. N WINDS AROUND 15 KTS GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPO GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE
21Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND
DIRECTION IN VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

TONIGHT: VFR CIGS DECREASE TO AROUND 5K FT...BUT COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 3500 FT FOR A COUPLE HRS. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRBL 00Z-02Z AND
THEN BECOME SW UNDER 10 KTS AFTER PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED THRU 18Z: VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 15K FT. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE W. SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS BECOME W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 091757
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED 2-4F FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
BEEN A BAND OF THICK ALTOCU COVERING MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND
WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL MOVE IN AFTER NOON...SKIES WILL AVERAGE
M/CLOUDY.

NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE IS VERY POOR ON DWPTS THIS AFTERNOON. DWPTS
ARE 8-10F OVER N-CNTRL AND NE NEB AND IT`S ADVECTING S. THE ONLY
MODEL CLOSE TO REALITY IS THE ARW. CURRENT DWPTS HAVE BEEN BLENDED
INTO THE ARW OUTPUT THRU 00Z WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS IS THE FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS AFTN`S AFD.

ALOFT: NNW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW THRU TOMORROW AS
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF BEGINS. HEIGHTS WILL
RISE ABOUT 120 M. NO SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATIONS ARE ENVISIONED.

SURFACE: A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTED NEB/KS AND EXTENDED NNW INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCH E OF THE
FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT 30 HRS AS A WEAK CLIPPER DIVES SSE ALONG
IT...INTO ND BY DAWN WED AND INTO NEB IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE M/CLOUDY THRU TONIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS TOMORROW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AHEAD. LOWS 6-12F ABOVE NORMAL.

MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WELL N OF I-80.

WED: CLEARING FROM W-E. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS. FULL
SUN AND NO SNOW WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S! STILL
EVALUATING WHAT WE WANT TO DO.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY. A JET STREAK COULD LINGER
SOME FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
BE ON ITS WAY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
...RANGING FROM NEAR 5C IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TO AS HIGH AS 12C
IN OUR SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE REMAINING SNOW...I CAN SEE THE TRI-
CITIES EASILY MAKING THE 40S THIS DAY...THANKS TO THE WEST
COMPONENT OF THE WIND.

I EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTER ALOFT ALLOWS COOLER AIR IN...
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...THEN A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH RELEASES SOME
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES
FROM INITIALIZED GRIDS TO MID 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ESSENTIALLY SIDE-SWIPED BY THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. I KEPT SUNDAY DRY...BUT A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS ADVERTISED BY MODELS THAT COULD GIVE US A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO I KEPT THIS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: NONE.

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR CIGS 6-7K FT. N WINDS AROUND 15 KTS GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPO GUSTINESS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE
21Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND
DIRECTION IN VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT.

TONIGHT: VFR CIGS DECREASE TO AROUND 5K FT...BUT COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 3500 FT FOR A COUPLE HRS. WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRBL 00Z-02Z AND
THEN BECOME SW UNDER 10 KTS AFTER PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED THRU 18Z: VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 15K FT. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE W. SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS BECOME W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 091118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THEM ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE SNOW FREE AREAS FAR SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY. A JET STREAK COULD LINGER
SOME FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...RANGING FROM
NEAR 5C IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TO AS HIGH AS 12C IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE THE REMAINING SNOW...I CAN SEE THE TRI-CITIES EASILY MAKING
THE 40S THIS DAY...THANKS TO THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE WIND.

I EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTER ALOFT ALLOWS COOLER AIR IN...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...THEN A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH RELEASES SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM
INITIALIZED GRIDS TO MID 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES. HOWEVER...WE ARE
ESSENTIALLY SIDE-SWIPED BY THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. I KEPT SUNDAY DRY...BUT A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ADVERTISED BY MODELS THAT COULD GIVE US A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO I KEPT THIS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 091118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THEM ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE SNOW FREE AREAS FAR SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY. A JET STREAK COULD LINGER
SOME FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...RANGING FROM
NEAR 5C IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TO AS HIGH AS 12C IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE THE REMAINING SNOW...I CAN SEE THE TRI-CITIES EASILY MAKING
THE 40S THIS DAY...THANKS TO THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE WIND.

I EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTER ALOFT ALLOWS COOLER AIR IN...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...THEN A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH RELEASES SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM
INITIALIZED GRIDS TO MID 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES. HOWEVER...WE ARE
ESSENTIALLY SIDE-SWIPED BY THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. I KEPT SUNDAY DRY...BUT A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ADVERTISED BY MODELS THAT COULD GIVE US A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO I KEPT THIS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 091118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
518 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THEM ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE SNOW FREE AREAS FAR SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY. A JET STREAK COULD LINGER
SOME FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...RANGING FROM
NEAR 5C IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TO AS HIGH AS 12C IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE THE REMAINING SNOW...I CAN SEE THE TRI-CITIES EASILY MAKING
THE 40S THIS DAY...THANKS TO THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE WIND.

I EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTER ALOFT ALLOWS COOLER AIR IN...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...THEN A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH RELEASES SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM
INITIALIZED GRIDS TO MID 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES. HOWEVER...WE ARE
ESSENTIALLY SIDE-SWIPED BY THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. I KEPT SUNDAY DRY...BUT A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ADVERTISED BY MODELS THAT COULD GIVE US A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO I KEPT THIS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 090942
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THEM ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE SNOW FREE AREAS FAR SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY. A JET STREAK COULD LINGER
SOME FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...RANGING FROM
NEAR 5C IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TO AS HIGH AS 12C IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE THE REMAINING SNOW...I CAN SEE THE TRI-CITIES EASILY MAKING
THE 40S THIS DAY...THANKS TO THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE WIND.

I EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTER ALOFT ALLOWS COOLER AIR IN...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...THEN A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH RELEASES SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM
INITIALIZED GRIDS TO MID 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES. HOWEVER...WE ARE
ESSENTIALLY SIDE-SWIPED BY THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. I KEPT SUNDAY DRY...BUT A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ADVERTISED BY MODELS THAT COULD GIVE US A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO I KEPT THIS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 090942
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THEM ARE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE SNOW FREE AREAS FAR SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST DEAMPLIFY. A JET STREAK COULD LINGER
SOME FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...RANGING FROM
NEAR 5C IN OUR NORTHEAST CORNER TO AS HIGH AS 12C IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
DESPITE THE REMAINING SNOW...I CAN SEE THE TRI-CITIES EASILY MAKING
THE 40S THIS DAY...THANKS TO THE WEST COMPONENT OF THE WIND.

I EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTER ALOFT ALLOWS COOLER AIR IN...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...THEN A 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH RELEASES SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FROM
INITIALIZED GRIDS TO MID 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES. HOWEVER...WE ARE
ESSENTIALLY SIDE-SWIPED BY THE PUSH OF THE COLD AIR TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH BY FRIDAY WITH A WARM-UP ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...WE COULD HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. I KEPT SUNDAY DRY...BUT A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ADVERTISED BY MODELS THAT COULD GIVE US A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO I KEPT THIS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 090522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1122 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 090522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1122 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 082347
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 082347
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 082122
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.


A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST IS RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 081759
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS PICK UP
FOR AGAIN. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB ARE 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AT 850MB GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE DURING THE MORNING THEN
LET UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MUCH MORE RAPIDLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY AMOUNT TO SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT SMALL WAVES COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY...PROBABLY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS COULD MEAN TROUBLE AS FAR AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERALLY SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LONG TERM
UNFOLDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. I DID BACK OFF
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING OUR STUBBORN SNOW FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST IS RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 081130
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS PICK UP
FOR AGAIN. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB ARE 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AT 850MB GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE DURING THE MORNING THEN
LET UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MUCH MORE RAPIDLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY AMOUNT TO SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT SMALL WAVES COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY...PROBABLY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS COULD MEAN TROUBLE AS FAR AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERALLY SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LONG TERM
UNFOLDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. I DID BACK OFF
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING OUR STUBBORN SNOW FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THERE WILL BE SOME IN AND OUT CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE WIND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 080959
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS PICK UP
FOR AGAIN. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB ARE 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AT 850MB GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE DURING THE MORNING THEN
LET UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MUCH MORE RAPIDLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY AMOUNT TO SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT SMALL WAVES COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY...PROBABLY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS COULD MEAN TROUBLE AS FAR AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERALLY SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LONG TERM
UNFOLDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. I DID BACK OFF
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING OUR STUBBORN SNOW FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 080524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 080524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 080524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 072355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WINDS MAY RELAX 5-10 KTS NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT...WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR 55 KTS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME NEAR MVFR CLOUDS TO FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND
08/14Z...GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 072355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WINDS MAY RELAX 5-10 KTS NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT...WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR 55 KTS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME NEAR MVFR CLOUDS TO FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND
08/14Z...GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 072355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WINDS MAY RELAX 5-10 KTS NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT...WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR 55 KTS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME NEAR MVFR CLOUDS TO FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND
08/14Z...GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 072210
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 072210
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 072210
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 071841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 071841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 071841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 071152
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE TODAY. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
UNTIL SURFACE WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS A NON-ISSUE. SNOW
PACK SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS FROM BLOWING MUCH MORE THAN 35 KTS.
SOME BLSN POSSIBLE...BUT SNOW ON THE GROUND IS QUITE HEAVY AND DO
NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW P6SM. SOME FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST...BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 071152
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE TODAY. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
UNTIL SURFACE WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS A NON-ISSUE. SNOW
PACK SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS FROM BLOWING MUCH MORE THAN 35 KTS.
SOME BLSN POSSIBLE...BUT SNOW ON THE GROUND IS QUITE HEAVY AND DO
NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW P6SM. SOME FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST...BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 071042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 071042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 071042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 062330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND STEADILY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND MIXING INCREASES. WINDS OF
25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN
THOSE ALOFT. AS MIXING BEGINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE WIND
SHEAR CONCERN WILL FADE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT




000
FXUS63 KGID 062330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND STEADILY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND MIXING INCREASES. WINDS OF
25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN
THOSE ALOFT. AS MIXING BEGINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE WIND
SHEAR CONCERN WILL FADE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT





000
FXUS63 KGID 062330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND STEADILY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND MIXING INCREASES. WINDS OF
25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN
THOSE ALOFT. AS MIXING BEGINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS THE WIND
SHEAR CONCERN WILL FADE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT





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