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000
FXUS63 KGID 260546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMINE
NE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 260546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMINE
NE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 252315
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 252315
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 252128
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 252128
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 251749
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1149 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 251749
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1149 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 251145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TODAY: THICK MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS INVADE AROUND 18K FT AND
CASCADE DOWNWARD THRU THE DAY TO AROUND 6K FT BY SUNSET. LIGHT
SW-W WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE...GUSTING 20-23 KTS AT
TIMES PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VFR SHWR POSSIBLE 00Z-03Z. THEN A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 03Z-05Z. MVFR CIGS APPEAR PROBABLE...BUT NOT
ALL GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD YET. NW WINDS WILL GUST 25-33 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TODAY: THICK MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS INVADE AROUND 18K FT AND
CASCADE DOWNWARD THRU THE DAY TO AROUND 6K FT BY SUNSET. LIGHT
SW-W WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE...GUSTING 20-23 KTS AT
TIMES PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VFR SHWR POSSIBLE 00Z-03Z. THEN A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 03Z-05Z. MVFR CIGS APPEAR PROBABLE...BUT NOT
ALL GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD YET. NW WINDS WILL GUST 25-33 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 250908
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WAA WAS UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWS ARE LARGE
EXPANSE OF LOW-MID CLOUDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WARM FRONT. THE SRN END OF THESE CLOUDS WAS GRAZING THE FCST AREA.
COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE FLURRIES N OF NEB HWY 92 BEFORE SUNRISE.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 250908
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WAA WAS UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWS ARE LARGE
EXPANSE OF LOW-MID CLOUDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WARM FRONT. THE SRN END OF THESE CLOUDS WAS GRAZING THE FCST AREA.
COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE FLURRIES N OF NEB HWY 92 BEFORE SUNRISE.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 250624
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE WAS TO FCST DWPTS WHICH WERE RUNNING TOO HIGH COMPARED TO
REALITY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHER DWPTS IN THE 20S
ARE TO THE W AND THESE WILL BE ADVECTED E OVERNIGHT. JUST SLOWED
THE TIMING DOWN BY MERGING CURRENT DWPTS WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 250624
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE WAS TO FCST DWPTS WHICH WERE RUNNING TOO HIGH COMPARED TO
REALITY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHER DWPTS IN THE 20S
ARE TO THE W AND THESE WILL BE ADVECTED E OVERNIGHT. JUST SLOWED
THE TIMING DOWN BY MERGING CURRENT DWPTS WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 250531
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 250531
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 242355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH NEAR MVFR CIGS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX.
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE
REGION BY 25/15Z...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT DISTURBANCE. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...SO OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST TAFS FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 242355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH NEAR MVFR CIGS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX.
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE
REGION BY 25/15Z...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT DISTURBANCE. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...SO OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST TAFS FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 242139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 242139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 242139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 242139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY/GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
AS THE LOW MOVES WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS
AN UPPER JET NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND MODELS SUGGEST
A HIT OR MISS CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...TO OUR
WEST.

HEIGHTS RISE TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP IN RISING HEIGHTS/WAA
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THE WARMING BUT TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON VARYING CLOUD COVER...AND READINGS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.  THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTN...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT IS
ALSO ENHANCED IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TOWARD EVENING AS 160KT H3
JET NOSES ONTO THE PLAINS FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING LATE AFTN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE WRF MODEL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE WRF AS IT PERFORMED WELL WITH
THE SUNDAY RAIN EVENT. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR
TUESDAY AFTN AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW H85 AND IT MAY BE MORE OF A SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AT THE ONSET BEFORE THINGS SATURATE.  THE LLVL TEMP
PROFILE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING THRU THE AFTN AND PCPN TYPE WILL
REMAIN AS LIQUID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THE AREA UNDER CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF NE AND INTO WRN/SRN IA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUN OF MODELS HAVE SHOWN MORE SUPPORT WITH
THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA AT LEAST SEE A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THE SRN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE POPS ALONG/EAST OF A LOUP
CITY TO HEBRON LINE. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A HEFTY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE NW...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY
COME CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIES THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL START SEEING COOLER AIR BUILDING IN...THUS THE RA/SN
MENTION...BUT THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING EAST...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MAYBE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OR
SO AS THAT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST. SHOULD BE SEEING SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EXPECTING IT
TO BE A BREEZY DAY...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL...NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S NE TO LOW/MID 40S SW.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY HOLIDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AND NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SFC...START THE DAY OUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT SLIDING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO EXPECT A BUMP UP IN TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S NE TO UPPER 40S SW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z
FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10C...TO THE MID/UPPER TEENS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
W/SWRLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS...LEAD TO THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS BEING TRENDED
UP...AND SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT WASNT ENOUGH.  50S/60S CURRENTLY
GOING...BUT POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY MAY HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...WITH INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF AN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. SATURDAY HIGHS ALONE WERE RAISED AROUND 8 DEGREES. LOOK
TO BE A REAL NICE COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEN COMES THE COLD FRONT.  MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...USHERING IN NRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN /BUT REMAINING CENTERED TO
THE N/NE OF THE CWA/ WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL LINGER AROUND INTO MONDAY. HAVE 20S/30S
GOING FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP
FOR MONDAY INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 241738
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1138 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...NW WINDS GUST 35-40 MPH WITH ISOLATED G45 WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS IN MOSTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

529 AM: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW...N AND E
OF THE TRI-CITIES. STILL CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY IN REGIONAL OBS RECENTLY.

BBW MEASURED A G39 KTS AT 421 AM. THAT IS INDICATIVE OF WHAT OUR
MAX WIND POTENTIAL IS TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING COMMENCES.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS
WITH ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER
YOU CAN CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECAST FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE
TRAVELING TO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO NEBRASKA ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE
BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY
EVENTUALLY GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE
OVERALL SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID
30S IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE
DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. SATURDAY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR
DOOR STEP. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL
IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN
THE COMING DAYS AS THE UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 241738
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1138 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...NW WINDS GUST 35-40 MPH WITH ISOLATED G45 WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS IN MOSTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

529 AM: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW...N AND E
OF THE TRI-CITIES. STILL CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY IN REGIONAL OBS RECENTLY.

BBW MEASURED A G39 KTS AT 421 AM. THAT IS INDICATIVE OF WHAT OUR
MAX WIND POTENTIAL IS TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING COMMENCES.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS
WITH ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER
YOU CAN CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECAST FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE
TRAVELING TO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO NEBRASKA ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE
BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY
EVENTUALLY GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE
OVERALL SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID
30S IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE
DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. SATURDAY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR
DOOR STEP. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL
IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN
THE COMING DAYS AS THE UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS OF 30KTS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 241129
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...NW WINDS GUST 35-40 MPH WITH ISOLATED G45 WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS IN MOSTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

529 AM: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW...N AND E
OF THE TRI-CITIES. STILL CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY IN REGIONAL OBS RECENTLY.

BBW MEASURED A G39 KTS AT 421 AM. THAT IS INDICATIVE OF WHAT OUR
MAX WIND POTENTIAL IS TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING COMMENCES.


TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS
WITH ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER
YOU CAN CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECAST FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE
TRAVELING TO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO NEBRASKA ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE
BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY
EVENTUALLY GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE
OVERALL SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID
30S IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE
DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. SATURDAY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR
DOOR STEP. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL
IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN
THE COMING DAYS AS THE UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY: A PERIOD OF 2000-2500 FT MVFR CIGS APPEARS LIKELY FOR 2-3
HRS THIS MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT GRI WHERE WE MADE IT
PREVAILING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT EAR WHERE THE WRN EDGE OF THIS
DECK OF STRATOCU MAY JUST SKIRT THE AIRPORT FOR A TIME. SO HANDLED
WITH JUST A TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CLEARING AFTER
15Z. NW WINDS WILL GUST 27-32 KTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PKWND OF 40
KTS. BBW GUSTED TO 39 KTS LAST HOUR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR PATCHES OF PRIMARILY SCT CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS
RAPIDLY DIMINISH 23Z-01Z TO AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
THRU WNW TO W UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 241129
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...NW WINDS GUST 35-40 MPH WITH ISOLATED G45 WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS IN MOSTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

529 AM: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW...N AND E
OF THE TRI-CITIES. STILL CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY IN REGIONAL OBS RECENTLY.

BBW MEASURED A G39 KTS AT 421 AM. THAT IS INDICATIVE OF WHAT OUR
MAX WIND POTENTIAL IS TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE MIXING COMMENCES.


TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS
WITH ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER
YOU CAN CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND FORECAST FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE
TRAVELING TO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO NEBRASKA ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE
BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY
EVENTUALLY GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE
OVERALL SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID
30S IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE
DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. SATURDAY IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR
DOOR STEP. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE.
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL
IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN
THE COMING DAYS AS THE UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY: A PERIOD OF 2000-2500 FT MVFR CIGS APPEARS LIKELY FOR 2-3
HRS THIS MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT GRI WHERE WE MADE IT
PREVAILING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT EAR WHERE THE WRN EDGE OF THIS
DECK OF STRATOCU MAY JUST SKIRT THE AIRPORT FOR A TIME. SO HANDLED
WITH JUST A TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CLEARING AFTER
15Z. NW WINDS WILL GUST 27-32 KTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PKWND OF 40
KTS. BBW GUSTED TO 39 KTS LAST HOUR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR PATCHES OF PRIMARILY SCT CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS
RAPIDLY DIMINISH 23Z-01Z TO AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
THRU WNW TO W UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 241008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
408 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

NOW: TEMPS CONT STRUGGLING TO DROP. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SVRL DEGS
FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

EARLY THIS MORNING: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW
FLOW.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 38 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS WITH
ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER YOU CAN
CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECAST
FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE TRAVELING TO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA ZONES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY EVENTUALLY
GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE OVERALL
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS
LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. SATURDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT
IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW
COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY
WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE
WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 241008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
408 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

NOW: TEMPS CONT STRUGGLING TO DROP. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SVRL DEGS
FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

EARLY THIS MORNING: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW
FLOW.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 38 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS WITH
ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER YOU CAN
CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECAST
FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE TRAVELING TO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA ZONES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY EVENTUALLY
GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE OVERALL
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS
LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. SATURDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT
IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW
COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY
WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE
WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 241008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
408 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

NOW: TEMPS CONT STRUGGLING TO DROP. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SVRL DEGS
FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

EARLY THIS MORNING: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW
FLOW.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 38 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS WITH
ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE BIG HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FAST APPROACHING AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALWAYS REMEMBER YOU CAN
CHECK WWW.WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECAST
FOR ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY WHERE YOU MIGHT BE TRAVELING TO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE 00Z GFS TRYING TO BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA ZONES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE BOTH SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND ARE DRY. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT GIVEN MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY...WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND WITHHOLD ANY FLURRIES FOR NOW. FORECAST
MODELS ARE NOT AS COLD WITH THIS AIRMASS AS THEY WERE SEVERAL DAYS
AGO AND EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...UNFORTUNATELY THE HOLIDAY ITSELF APPEARS TO THE BE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE COOLER AIR THAT SETTLES IN ON
WEDNESDAY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER AND SO WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY EVENTUALLY
GET RAISED SOME. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE OVERALL
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE
TRI-CITIES...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS
LIKELY AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. SATURDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INDICATES THAT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
THE 60S...BUT THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE REALLY DOES NOT
IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW
COLD THE NEXT AIR MASS WILL BE. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED DOWNWARD AND WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY
WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL IS INCORPORATING RECENT RUNS THAT WERE
WARMER AND IS CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BASICALLY...EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
UNCERTAINTY ISSUES GET IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 240840
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

NOW: TEMPS CONT STRUGGLING TO DROP. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SVRL DEGS
FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

EARLY THIS MORNING: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW
FLOW.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 38 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS WITH
ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE AROUND 4 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 240840
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

NOW: TEMPS CONT STRUGGLING TO DROP. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SVRL DEGS
FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

EARLY THIS MORNING: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW
FLOW.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 38 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS WITH
ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE AROUND 4 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TEMPS ARE STILL MILD AND HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 30S. HOURLY
FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COLD BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SO BLENDED
CURRENT OBS INTO THE FCST TO GET THE FCST TEMP CURVES BACK ON
TRACK.

NOT MUCH FLURRY ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
FCST. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST SKY COVER PER
SATELLITE TRENDS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TEMPS ARE STILL MILD AND HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 30S. HOURLY
FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COLD BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SO BLENDED
CURRENT OBS INTO THE FCST TO GET THE FCST TEMP CURVES BACK ON
TRACK.

NOT MUCH FLURRY ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
FCST. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST SKY COVER PER
SATELLITE TRENDS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 232328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS NEBRASKA.
MAY SEE SOME NEAR MVFR CIGS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AS OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS ARE INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. LATEST MODEL DATA IS INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 24/18Z...SO FORECAST WINDS
TO DROP TO LESS THAN 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 232328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS NEBRASKA.
MAY SEE SOME NEAR MVFR CIGS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AS OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS ARE INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. LATEST MODEL DATA IS INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 24/18Z...SO FORECAST WINDS
TO DROP TO LESS THAN 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 232021
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 232021
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 231746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 231746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 231144
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES WITHIN THE FIRST ONE
TO TWO HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...1300-1400Z. THE WIND WILL
VERY QUICKLY PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND WILL LOSE A COUPLE OF MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN
IS LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 231144
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES WITHIN THE FIRST ONE
TO TWO HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...1300-1400Z. THE WIND WILL
VERY QUICKLY PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND WILL LOSE A COUPLE OF MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN
IS LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 231012
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUED
LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




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