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000
FXUS63 KGID 301040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. DURING THE MORNING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AND
THE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 27 TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 20 MPH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT
DROP ANY MORE.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
WITH A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS REGION...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
TROUGH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.  ON FRIDAY...A 1039MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HALLOWEEN IS LOOKING RATHER CHILLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
BY TRICK OR TREAT TIME...READINGS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE IN THE 30S.

THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING
SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG IN MT/WY.
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.  SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 60S.  THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THRU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT ZERO...IT IS ALSO NOT
ROBUST AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH WITH FROPA INTO MONDAY
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK WITH COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED MID
WEEK IN RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.  ALL IN
ALL...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT SCARY LOOKING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TEMPS WILL VARY IN WAA/CAA WITH PCPN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF
THE DAY. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. DURING THE MORNING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AND
THE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 27 TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 20 MPH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT
DROP ANY MORE.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
WITH A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS REGION...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
TROUGH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.  ON FRIDAY...A 1039MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HALLOWEEN IS LOOKING RATHER CHILLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
BY TRICK OR TREAT TIME...READINGS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE IN THE 30S.

THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING
SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG IN MT/WY.
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.  SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 60S.  THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THRU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT ZERO...IT IS ALSO NOT
ROBUST AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH WITH FROPA INTO MONDAY
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK WITH COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED MID
WEEK IN RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.  ALL IN
ALL...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT SCARY LOOKING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TEMPS WILL VARY IN WAA/CAA WITH PCPN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF
THE DAY. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300821
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
321 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNRISE. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. DURING THE MORNING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AND
THE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH READINGS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 27 TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 20 MPH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT
DROP ANY MORE.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE AMPLIFIED AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
WITH A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS REGION...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
TROUGH THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.  ON FRIDAY...A 1039MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
HALLOWEEN IS LOOKING RATHER CHILLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
BY TRICK OR TREAT TIME...READINGS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE IN THE 30S.

THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING
SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG IN MT/WY.
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.  SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 60S.  THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THRU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT ZERO...IT IS ALSO NOT
ROBUST AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH WITH FROPA INTO MONDAY
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK WITH COOLER AIR
RETURNING FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED MID
WEEK IN RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.  ALL IN
ALL...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT SCARY LOOKING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TEMPS WILL VARY IN WAA/CAA WITH PCPN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AROUND BUT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
TOWARD MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300516
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 45KTS NEAR 23000FT AGL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CONUS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA
HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS PROMOTING A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS
ALLOWING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEASTTHROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND PERHAPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID- MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA IS POSSIBLE...NOTHING IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST...AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW...AND THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL START FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THIS WIND SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE RISES POST-FROPA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 15-20KTS WILL ACCOMPANY
GUSTS CLOSER TO 30KTS. NOTHING TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE
TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS
RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
BETWEEN NOW AND THE DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS...WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THUS HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS...SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS WHEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST
THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS...MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ALSO
INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
100-200J/KG COULD BE IN EXISTENCE. THAT SAID...THUNDER WAS JUST
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT AND RATHER THAN FLIP-
FLOPPING...WOULD RATHER WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST SHIFT OR TWO BEFORE
INSERTING THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

THE INTRUSION OF A MUCH COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY PRESENT CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASING FORECAST
TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S. RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SATURDAY ONWARD
SHOULD THEN PROMOTE A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD AROUND BUT THAT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
TOWARD MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WITH THE INCREASED WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...AND THE DRY FUELS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WANTED TO MAKE A QUICK NOTE REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NO LOWER THAN
28% OR 29% GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY IN NEBRASKA...TO SMITH CENTER AND OSBORNE IN KANSAS...WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED FARTHER NORTHEAST. THAT
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO ENSURE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT DROP OFF...OR THAT THE
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT RISE MUCH FARTHER...THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 300056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
756 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 45KTS NEAR 23000FT AGL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CONUS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA
HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS PROMOTING A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS
ALLOWING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHTEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PERHAPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA IS POSSIBLE...NOTHING IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST...AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW...AND THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL START FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THIS WIND SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE RISES POST-FROPA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 15-20KTS WILL ACCOMPANY
GUSTS CLOSER TO 30KTS. NOTHING TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE
TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS
RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
BETWEEN NOW AND THE DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS...WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THUS HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS...SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS WHEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST
THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS...MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ALSO
INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
100-200J/KG COULD BE IN EXISTENCE. THAT SAID...THUNDER WAS JUST
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT AND RATHER THAN FLIP-
FLOPPING...WOULD RATHER WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST SHIFT OR TWO BEFORE
INSERTING THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

THE INTRUSION OF A MUCH COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY PRESENT CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASING FORECAST
TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S. RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SATURDAY ONWARD
SHOULD THEN PROMOTE A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WITH THE INCREASED WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...AND THE DRY FUELS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WANTED TO MAKE A QUICK NOTE REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NO LOWER THAN
28% OR 29% GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY IN NEBRASKA...TO SMITH CENTER AND OSBORNE IN KANSAS...WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED FARTHER NORTHEAST. THAT
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO ENSURE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT DROP OFF...OR THAT THE
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT RISE MUCH FARTHER...THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 292009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 45KTS NEAR 23000FT AGL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CONUS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA
HOWEVER REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS PROMOTING A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS
ALLOWING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHTEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PERHAPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA IS POSSIBLE...NOTHING IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST...AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW...AND THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL START FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THIS WIND SHOULD BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE RISES POST-FROPA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 15-20KTS WILL ACCOMPANY
GUSTS CLOSER TO 30KTS. NOTHING TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUR AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE
TRUE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS
RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS
BETWEEN NOW AND THE DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS...WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THUS HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS...SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS WHEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST
THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS...MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ALSO
INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
100-200J/KG COULD BE IN EXISTENCE. THAT SAID...THUNDER WAS JUST
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT AND RATHER THAN FLIP-
FLOPPING...WOULD RATHER WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST SHIFT OR TWO BEFORE
INSERTING THUNDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

THE INTRUSION OF A MUCH COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY PRESENT CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASING FORECAST
TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S. RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SATURDAY ONWARD
SHOULD THEN PROMOTE A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT 17KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 24KTS...DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MOST
PART...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WITH THE INCREASED WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...AND THE DRY FUELS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WANTED TO MAKE A QUICK NOTE REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NO LOWER THAN
28% OR 29% GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY IN NEBRASKA...TO SMITH CENTER AND OSBORNE IN KANSAS...WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED FARTHER NORTHEAST. THAT
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO ENSURE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE DOES NOT DROP OFF...OR THAT THE
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT RISE MUCH FARTHER...THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 291721
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CONUS
CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AIDED
BY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SWRN CONUS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN BASICALLY RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AND
WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE. THE LIGHTER
WINDS...NO CLOUD COVER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REALLY FALL OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS FALL. AS OF 3 AM...LOWER/MID 20S
WERE REPORTED IN THE N/NW...WITH MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC KS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT...OUTSIDE
OF SOME MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY...THOUGH THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE MN/IA AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH THE BETTER LIFT OF THE DISTURBANCE BEING OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA AND JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR IT TO WORK WITH...KEPT
THINGS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH AXIS/FRONT SETTING UP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING TO MORE SOUTHERLY AS THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDES EAST. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE...A COOL FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

AS THE COOLER AIR MASS WITH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE
THIS MORNING SLIDES EAST...LOOKING TO SEE WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT
EXPECTING QUITE AS CHILLY OF A NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COOL ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE AND WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER. THE ADVANTAGE IS
THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZE. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE MUCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. BY MONDAY THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER.

ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COLD WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT 17KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 24KTS...DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE MOST
PART...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 291028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CONUS
CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AIDED
BY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SWRN CONUS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN BASICALLY RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AND
WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE. THE LIGHTER
WINDS...NO CLOUD COVER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REALLY FALL OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS FALL. AS OF 3 AM...LOWER/MID 20S
WERE REPORTED IN THE N/NW...WITH MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC KS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT...OUTSIDE
OF SOME MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY...THOUGH THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE MN/IA AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH THE BETTER LIFT OF THE DISTURBANCE BEING OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA AND JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR IT TO WORK WITH...KEPT
THINGS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH AXIS/FRONT SETTING UP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING TO MORE SOUTHERLY AS THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDES EAST. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE...A COOL FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

AS THE COOLER AIR MASS WITH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE
THIS MORNING SLIDES EAST...LOOKING TO SEE WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT
EXPECTING QUITE AS CHILLY OF A NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COOL ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE AND WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER. THE ADVANTAGE IS
THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZE. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE MUCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. BY MONDAY THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER.

ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COLD WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...STILL
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND FEW CLOUDS
OVERALL...ESP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...BRINGING LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST AND A TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA...BRINGING A SWITCH TO NWRLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 290847
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CONUS
CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. AIDED
BY WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SWRN CONUS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN BASICALLY RIGHT OVER THE CWA...AND
WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE. THE LIGHTER
WINDS...NO CLOUD COVER AND DRIER AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REALLY FALL OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS FALL. AS OF 3 AM...LOWER/MID 20S
WERE REPORTED IN THE N/NW...WITH MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC KS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT...OUTSIDE
OF SOME MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY...THOUGH THERE
IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE MN/IA AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WITH THE BETTER LIFT OF THE DISTURBANCE BEING OFF TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA AND JUST NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR IT TO WORK WITH...KEPT
THINGS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH AXIS/FRONT SETTING UP
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING TO MORE SOUTHERLY AS THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDES EAST. THEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY THAT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N/NE...A COOL FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

AS THE COOLER AIR MASS WITH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE
THIS MORNING SLIDES EAST...LOOKING TO SEE WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE FAR EAST TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT
EXPECTING QUITE AS CHILLY OF A NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COOL ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE AND WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY
DURING THE DAY. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER. THE ADVANTAGE IS
THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZE. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE MUCAPE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. BY MONDAY THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER.

ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COLD WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THAT
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 290538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MAXES OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 24000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AS WELL AS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A LACK
IN CLOUD COVER THUS RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SHOULD PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM THE MID-20S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. FULL
DIABATIC HEATING...ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PATTERN: BASED ON MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT...PREDICTABILITY
APPEARS HIGH THAT THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST PERIOD AND POSSIBLY THRU FRI NOV 7TH. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS
IS NO PERSISTENT ERN USA RIDGE/WRN USA TROF WHICH WOULD FUNNEL
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SO THE PARADE OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

SO DONT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE THRU NEXT TUE AND
MOST LIKELY THRU THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOV AS WELL IF WE ARE
READING THE MODELS CORRECTLY. WE ARE NOW 6 DAYS INTO THIS BONE DRY
PATTERN.

THERE IS MODEST RAIN POTENTIAL SUN. BUT DONT COUNT ON IT TO BE
MUCH IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU NEXT TUE.

ALOFT: NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FCST REASONING FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOW STARTING TO SEE THE FULL IMPACTS WHAT WILL
BE A MAJOR DUMP OF COLD AIR INTO THE CNTRL/ERN USA LATE THIS
WEEK...AS BIG TIME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVER WRN USA WED NIGHT. IT WILL ADVANCE E ONTO THE PLAINS SAT AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF MOVES ONSHORE. SW FLOW DEVELOPS HERE SUN-MON
WITH TROF PASSAGE TUE.

SURFACE: A WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THRU WED NIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SE FROM THE PRAIRIES THU AND ACROSS THE ERN
USA FRI-MON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU
NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THRU HERE SUN
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE. THE TIMING OF THE SUN FROPA MAY
NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY.

COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

THU: SUNNY AND BREEZY IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT NO THERE SHOULD BE NO NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM WED. MAYBE 1-2F COOLER.

THU NIGHT: LOW TEMPS NOT EASY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SERIOUS COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FROPA.

FRI: WOW WHAT AN INCREDIBLE CHANGE FROM 24 HRS AGO. IF YOU READ
THIS PRODUCT YESTERDAY...WE NOTED THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS WAS COLDER...RANGING FROM 48F AT COLUMBUS TO 55 AT
PLAINVILLE KS.

HERE IS HOW THE MEX MOS HIGH TEMPS HAVE CHANGED OVER THE LAST 48
HRS AT GRI AND NOTE THE CHANGE JUST IN THE LAST 24 HRS...

FROM 12Z/26: 57
FROM 00Z/27: 55
FROM 12Z/27: 52
FROM 00Z/28: 49
FROM 12Z/28: 42

THIS IS REMARKABLE GIVEN THAT MEX GUIDANCE USUALLY RESPONDS
SLOWER THAN RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS. TEMPS WERE LOWERED 3-4F FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST AND BELIEVE THERE MAY ROOM TO LOWER FURTHER. SO WE
ARE NOW FCSTG 46 AT COLUMBUS TO 54F AT PLAINVILLE WITH 47-48F FOR
THE TRI- CITIES. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.

KEEP IN MIND THAT MOST MODEL 2M TEMPS HAVE 41-44F FOR THE TRI-
CITIES.

DO WE HAVE A CLOUD PROBLEM? NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS. A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS PREVENTED ME FROM HITTING IT
STRONGER IN THE FCST.

SAT: WE WILL HAVE A WIND PROBLEM. SHORTENING WAVELENGTHS ALOFT
MEANS STRONGER SFC PRESSURES AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. 1035 MB
HIGH PRES IS STRONGER THAN INDICATED 24 HRS AGO AND MODELS ARE
DECIDEDLY DEEPER AT 500 MB AS WELL /3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST/.

WINDS WERE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

AN INTERNAL STUDY OF WIND EVENTS SHOWS THE AVERAGE PRES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BFF-OMA IS 10-15 MB. THE GFS/EC ARE BOTH
OFFERING AROUND A 20 MB DIFFERENCE. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH LOOK
PROBABLE.

PLEASE REMEMBER AS OF NOV 1ST WE NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SUN: LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY WITH THE LOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS.
THE 12Z EC IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DEWPOINTS. SO IT IS NOT
QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS 24 HRS AGO. STAYED THE COURSE THOUGH AND KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIMARILY SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BACKED OFF FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND I AM NOT ENTIRELY
COMFORTABLE WITH THAT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SHWRS IS LOW WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT. SO THERE IS TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING AS AMPLIFIED AS IT WILL BE...A SLOWER
SOLUTION IS REASONABLE...IE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS 6PM SUN-6AM MON.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS IN THE SMALL WARM SECTOR.

MON: TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. ANY MORE DELAY WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
AND WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR LEFTOVER SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDER. GUIDANCE DOES NOW HAVE POPS IN THE FCST E OF HWY 281.

TUE: A WEAK CLIPPER COULD BE RACING E ACROSS CANADA PUTTING THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN NICE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT`S BACK TO MORE NW FLOW
CONTINUING OUR THINKING OF A LACK OF RAIN.

A QUICK CHECK OF THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONFIRMS OUR
THINKING. ODDS FAVOR A DRIER THAN NORMAL REGIME THRU NOV 11TH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THAT
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 290031
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
731 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MAXES OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 24000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AS WELL AS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A LACK
IN CLOUD COVER THUS RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SHOULD PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM THE MID-20S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. FULL
DIABATIC HEATING...ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PATTERN: BASED ON MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT...PREDICTABILITY
APPEARS HIGH THAT THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST PERIOD AND POSSIBLY THRU FRI NOV 7TH. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS
IS NO PERSISTENT ERN USA RIDGE/WRN USA TROF WHICH WOULD FUNNEL
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SO THE PARADE OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

SO DONT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE THRU NEXT TUE AND
MOST LIKELY THRU THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOV AS WELL IF WE ARE
READING THE MODELS CORRECTLY. WE ARE NOW 6 DAYS INTO THIS BONE DRY
PATTERN.

THERE IS MODEST RAIN POTENTIAL SUN. BUT DONT COUNT ON IT TO BE
MUCH IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU NEXT TUE.

ALOFT: NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FCST REASONING FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOW STARTING TO SEE THE FULL IMPACTS WHAT WILL
BE A MAJOR DUMP OF COLD AIR INTO THE CNTRL/ERN USA LATE THIS
WEEK...AS BIG TIME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVER WRN USA WED NIGHT. IT WILL ADVANCE E ONTO THE PLAINS SAT AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF MOVES ONSHORE. SW FLOW DEVELOPS HERE SUN-MON
WITH TROF PASSAGE TUE.

SURFACE: A WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THRU WED NIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SE FROM THE PRAIRIES THU AND ACROSS THE ERN
USA FRI-MON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU
NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THRU HERE SUN
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE. THE TIMING OF THE SUN FROPA MAY
NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY.

COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

THU: SUNNY AND BREEZY IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT NO THERE SHOULD BE NO NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM WED. MAYBE 1-2F COOLER.

THU NIGHT: LOW TEMPS NOT EASY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SERIOUS COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FROPA.

FRI: WOW WHAT AN INCREDIBLE CHANGE FROM 24 HRS AGO. IF YOU READ
THIS PRODUCT YESTERDAY...WE NOTED THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS WAS COLDER...RANGING FROM 48F AT COLUMBUS TO 55 AT
PLAINVILLE KS.

HERE IS HOW THE MEX MOS HIGH TEMPS HAVE CHANGED OVER THE LAST 48
HRS AT GRI AND NOTE THE CHANGE JUST IN THE LAST 24 HRS...

FROM 12Z/26: 57
FROM 00Z/27: 55
FROM 12Z/27: 52
FROM 00Z/28: 49
FROM 12Z/28: 42

THIS IS REMARKABLE GIVEN THAT MEX GUIDANCE USUALLY RESPONDS
SLOWER THAN RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS. TEMPS WERE LOWERED 3-4F FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST AND BELIEVE THERE MAY ROOM TO LOWER FURTHER. SO WE
ARE NOW FCSTG 46 AT COLUMBUS TO 54F AT PLAINVILLE WITH 47-48F FOR
THE TRI- CITIES. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.

KEEP IN MIND THAT MOST MODEL 2M TEMPS HAVE 41-44F FOR THE TRI-
CITIES.

DO WE HAVE A CLOUD PROBLEM? NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS. A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS PREVENTED ME FROM HITTING IT
STRONGER IN THE FCST.

SAT: WE WILL HAVE A WIND PROBLEM. SHORTENING WAVELENGTHS ALOFT
MEANS STRONGER SFC PRESSURES AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. 1035 MB
HIGH PRES IS STRONGER THAN INDICATED 24 HRS AGO AND MODELS ARE
DECIDEDLY DEEPER AT 500 MB AS WELL /3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST/.

WINDS WERE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

AN INTERNAL STUDY OF WIND EVENTS SHOWS THE AVERAGE PRES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BFF-OMA IS 10-15 MB. THE GFS/EC ARE BOTH
OFFERING AROUND A 20 MB DIFFERENCE. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH LOOK
PROBABLE.

PLEASE REMEMBER AS OF NOV 1ST WE NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SUN: LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY WITH THE LOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS.
THE 12Z EC IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DEWPOINTS. SO IT IS NOT
QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS 24 HRS AGO. STAYED THE COURSE THOUGH AND KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIMARILY SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BACKED OFF FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND I AM NOT ENTIRELY
COMFORTABLE WITH THAT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SHWRS IS LOW WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT. SO THERE IS TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING AS AMPLIFIED AS IT WILL BE...A SLOWER
SOLUTION IS REASONABLE...IE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS 6PM SUN-6AM MON.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS IN THE SMALL WARM SECTOR.

MON: TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. ANY MORE DELAY WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
AND WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR LEFTOVER SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDER. GUIDANCE DOES NOW HAVE POPS IN THE FCST E OF HWY 281.

TUE: A WEAK CLIPPER COULD BE RACING E ACROSS CANADA PUTTING THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN NICE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT`S BACK TO MORE NW FLOW
CONTINUING OUR THINKING OF A LACK OF RAIN.

A QUICK CHECK OF THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONFIRMS OUR
THINKING. ODDS FAVOR A DRIER THAN NORMAL REGIME THRU NOV 11TH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT AS FAR AS AVIATION WEATHER GOES
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE WIND WILL START OFF THE
EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAWN. A SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 282022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR THE LAST HALF OF OCT
HAS DEPARTED BUT WE ARE NOW IN A DRY REGIME WITH THE ONLY MODEST
POTENTIAL FOR HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS LATE SUN OR POSSIBLY MON...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND EAST. ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MAXES OUT AT AROUND 70KTS NEAR 24000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AS WELL AS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...BUT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER OVER OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND
FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY
POSITIONING ITSELF OVER OUR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A LACK
IN CLOUD COVER THUS RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SHOULD PROMOTE A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM THE MID-20S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. FULL
DIABATIC HEATING...ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PATTERN: BASED ON MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT...PREDICTABILITY
APPEARS HIGH THAT THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
FCST PERIOD AND POSSIBLY THRU FRI NOV 7TH. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS
IS NO PERSISTENT ERN USA RIDGE/WRN USA TROF WHICH WOULD FUNNEL
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SO THE PARADE OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

SO DONT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE THRU NEXT TUE AND
MOST LIKELY THRU THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOV AS WELL IF WE ARE
READING THE MODELS CORRECTLY. WE ARE NOW 6 DAYS INTO THIS BONE DRY
PATTERN.

THERE IS MODEST RAIN POTENTIAL SUN. BUT DONT COUNT ON IT TO BE
MUCH IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU NEXT TUE.

ALOFT: NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FCST REASONING FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOW STARTING TO SEE THE FULL IMPACTS WHAT WILL
BE A MAJOR DUMP OF COLD AIR INTO THE CNTRL/ERN USA LATE THIS
WEEK...AS BIG TIME AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
OVER WRN USA WED NIGHT. IT WILL ADVANCE E ONTO THE PLAINS SAT AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF MOVES ONSHORE. SW FLOW DEVELOPS HERE SUN-MON
WITH TROF PASSAGE TUE.

SURFACE: A WEAK CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THRU WED NIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SE FROM THE PRAIRIES THU AND ACROSS THE ERN
USA FRI-MON. THE NEXT PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU
NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THRU HERE SUN
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE. THE TIMING OF THE SUN FROPA MAY
NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY.

COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

THU: SUNNY AND BREEZY IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT NO THERE SHOULD BE NO NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM WED. MAYBE 1-2F COOLER.

THU NIGHT: LOW TEMPS NOT EASY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SERIOUS COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
FROPA.

FRI: WOW WHAT AN INCREDIBLE CHANGE FROM 24 HRS AGO. IF YOU READ
THIS PRODUCT YESTERDAY...WE NOTED THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS WAS COLDER...RANGING FROM 48F AT COLUMBUS TO 55 AT
PLAINVILLE KS.

HERE IS HOW THE MEX MOS HIGH TEMPS HAVE CHANGED OVER THE LAST 48
HRS AT GRI AND NOTE THE CHANGE JUST IN THE LAST 24 HRS...

FROM 12Z/26: 57
FROM 00Z/27: 55
FROM 12Z/27: 52
FROM 00Z/28: 49
FROM 12Z/28: 42

THIS IS REMARKABLE GIVEN THAT MEX GUIDANCE USUALLY RESPONDS
SLOWER THAN RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS. TEMPS WERE LOWERED 3-4F FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST AND BELIEVE THERE MAY ROOM TO LOWER FURTHER. SO WE
ARE NOW FCSTG 46 AT COLUMBUS TO 54F AT PLAINVILLE WITH 47-48F FOR
THE TRI- CITIES. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.

KEEP IN MIND THAT MOST MODEL 2M TEMPS HAVE 41-44F FOR THE TRI-
CITIES.

DO WE HAVE A CLOUD PROBLEM? NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS. A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS PREVENTED ME FROM HITTING IT
STRONGER IN THE FCST.

SAT: WE WILL HAVE A WIND PROBLEM. SHORTENING WAVELENGTHS ALOFT
MEANS STRONGER SFC PRESSURES AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. 1035 MB
HIGH PRES IS STRONGER THAN INDICATED 24 HRS AGO AND MODELS ARE
DECIDEDLY DEEPER AT 500 MB AS WELL /3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST/.

WINDS WERE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

AN INTERNAL STUDY OF WIND EVENTS SHOWS THE AVERAGE PRES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BFF-OMA IS 10-15 MB. THE GFS/EC ARE BOTH
OFFERING AROUND A 20 MB DIFFERENCE. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH LOOK
PROBABLE.

PLEASE REMEMBER AS OF NOV 1ST WE NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SUN: LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY WITH THE LOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS.
THE 12Z EC IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DEWPOINTS. SO IT IS NOT
QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS 24 HRS AGO. STAYED THE COURSE THOUGH AND KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER PRIMARILY SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BACKED OFF FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND I AM NOT ENTIRELY
COMFORTABLE WITH THAT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SHWRS IS LOW WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT. SO THERE IS TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING AS AMPLIFIED AS IT WILL BE...A SLOWER
SOLUTION IS REASONABLE...IE BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS 6PM SUN-6AM MON.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS IN THE SMALL WARM SECTOR.

MON: TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. ANY MORE DELAY WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
AND WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR LEFTOVER SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDER. GUIDANCE DOES NOW HAVE POPS IN THE FCST E OF HWY 281.

TUE: A WEAK CLIPPER COULD BE RACING E ACROSS CANADA PUTTING THE
CNTRL PLAINS IN NICE DOWNSLOPE REGIME.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT`S BACK TO MORE NW FLOW
CONTINUING OUR THINKING OF A LACK OF RAIN.

A QUICK CHECK OF THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONFIRMS OUR
THINKING. ODDS FAVOR A DRIER THAN NORMAL REGIME THRU NOV 11TH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND
11KTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 281702
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO MN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AFFECTING AREAS CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CWA IS SITTING WITH A WEAKER PATTERN...WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS WESTERLY...AND GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE. TEMPS ARE NOTABLY COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE
SOUTH.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE IN REGARD TO THE FORECAST BEING DRY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION COMING UNDER INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM...WITH NO
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...MAIN INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH ONTO THE
PLAINS...ACTUALLY ENDING UP CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT SOME POINT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE A LOT OF EASTWARD
PROGRESS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MAY STILL BE
CENTERED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTN HOURS...FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING POTENTIAL
UP TO AROUND 750-800MB...TAPPING INTO A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS. AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THESE GUSTIER WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE SUN SETS AND
THAT SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS WILL TAPER OFF CLOSER TO 5 MPH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. ALONG WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING THE DRIER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM TO ALSO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA...AND BY MID AFTERNOON MAY BE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NW TO NEAR 30 IN THE SE. THE TEMP/DP
COMBO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO
MAINLY THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...LITTLE SHY OF CAUSING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...ESP WITH WINDS BEING ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WHERE
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL END UP. AS WE GET INTO
TONIGHT...ACTUALLY TRENDED BACK OVERNIGHT LOWS A TOUCH...AS THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LITTLE
WIND...DRIER AIR IN A COOL AIRMASS. TRENDED LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
/WHICH IS LOWER THAN MODEL OUTPUT/...WITH MID/UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE HOW 12Z
GUIDANCE/MODELS TREND...DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

STARING WED MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO HAVE
A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN IDENTIFYING A MINOR DISTURBANCE WORKING
THROUGH THE TOP OF RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF
THIS WAVE WOULD PLACE THE BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTHEAST. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS OVER THE CENTER OF OUR CWA NOT PRODUCING MUCH
LIFT...AS NOTED FROM OMEGA VALUES AND OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ALSO LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER. THUS WILL KEEP IT DRY.

FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS VANCOUVER AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
FRIDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THUS WE CAN EXPECT
FRIDAY TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER
THAN WE WILL SEE ON WED AND THU. STILL...WE SHOULD AVOID THE
REALLY COLD AIR LIKE PARTS OF NDAK AND MN WHICH MAY ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD END UP TO OUR EAST
BY SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH PUTTING US IN
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT WITH
SATURDAY`S HIGHS STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MID 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FINALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE SHARP TROUGH NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND SHOULD BE OVER THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS... AS IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. IT THEN CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. OF
COURSE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT...IN BOTH TIME AND
DISTANCE. THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WHETHER OR NOT WE COULD SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION TYPE OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH SO MANY QUESTIONS...WILL MOST LIKELY STICK CLOSE TO CR
EXTENDED GUIDANCE. FOR THE TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIP IS IN THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AS BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE MU-CAPE IN THE 300-500 J/KG
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND
11KTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 281124
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO MN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AFFECTING AREAS CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CWA IS SITTING WITH A WEAKER PATTERN...WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS WESTERLY...AND GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE. TEMPS ARE NOTABLY COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE
SOUTH.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE IN REGARD TO THE FORECAST BEING DRY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION COMING UNDER INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM...WITH NO
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...MAIN INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH ONTO THE
PLAINS...ACTUALLY ENDING UP CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT SOME POINT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE A LOT OF EASTWARD
PROGRESS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MAY STILL BE
CENTERED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTN HOURS...FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING POTENTIAL
UP TO AROUND 750-800MB...TAPPING INTO A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS. AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THESE GUSTIER WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE SUN SETS AND
THAT SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS WILL TAPER OFF CLOSER TO 5 MPH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. ALONG WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING THE DRIER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM TO ALSO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA...AND BY MID AFTERNOON MAY BE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NW TO NEAR 30 IN THE SE. THE TEMP/DP
COMBO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO
MAINLY THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...LITTLE SHY OF CAUSING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...ESP WITH WINDS BEING ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WHERE
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL END UP. AS WE GET INTO
TONIGHT...ACTUALLY TRENDED BACK OVERNIGHT LOWS A TOUCH...AS THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LITTLE
WIND...DRIER AIR IN A COOL AIRMASS. TRENDED LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
/WHICH IS LOWER THAN MODEL OUTPUT/...WITH MID/UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE HOW 12Z
GUIDANCE/MODELS TREND...DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

STARING WED MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO HAVE
A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN IDENTIFYING A MINOR DISTURBANCE WORKING
THROUGH THE TOP OF RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF
THIS WAVE WOULD PLACE THE BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTHEAST. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS OVER THE CENTER OF OUR CWA NOT PRODUCING MUCH
LIFT...AS NOTED FROM OMEGA VALUES AND OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ALSO LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER. THUS WILL KEEP IT DRY.

FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS VANCOUVER AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
FRIDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THUS WE CAN EXPECT
FRIDAY TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER
THAN WE WILL SEE ON WED AND THU. STILL...WE SHOULD AVOID THE
REALLY COLD AIR LIKE PARTS OF NDAK AND MN WHICH MAY ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD END UP TO OUR EAST
BY SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH PUTTING US IN
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT WITH
SATURDAY`S HIGHS STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MID 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FINALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE SHARP TROUGH NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND SHOULD BE OVER THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS... AS IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. IT THEN CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. OF
COURSE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT...IN BOTH TIME AND
DISTANCE. THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WHETHER OR NOT WE COULD SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION TYPE OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH SO MANY QUESTIONS...WILL MOST LIKELY STICK CLOSE TO CR
EXTENDED GUIDANCE. FOR THE TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIP IS IN THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AS BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE MU-CAPE IN THE 300-500 J/KG
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...STILL EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS THE
AREA SITS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAY SEE A
FEW CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WOULD REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN W/NWRLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 TO
POTENTIALLY 20 MPH MAINLY DURING THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH EVENING. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 280852
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO MN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AFFECTING AREAS CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CWA IS SITTING WITH A WEAKER PATTERN...WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS WESTERLY...AND GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE. TEMPS ARE NOTABLY COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE
SOUTH.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE IN REGARD TO THE FORECAST BEING DRY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION COMING UNDER INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM...WITH NO
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...MAIN INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH ONTO THE
PLAINS...ACTUALLY ENDING UP CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT SOME POINT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE A LOT OF EASTWARD
PROGRESS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MAY STILL BE
CENTERED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTN HOURS...FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING POTENTIAL
UP TO AROUND 750-800MB...TAPPING INTO A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS. AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THESE GUSTIER WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE SUN SETS AND
THAT SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS WILL TAPER OFF CLOSER TO 5 MPH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. ALONG WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING THE DRIER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM TO ALSO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA...AND BY MID AFTERNOON MAY BE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NW TO NEAR 30 IN THE SE. THE TEMP/DP
COMBO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO
MAINLY THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...LITTLE SHY OF CAUSING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...ESP WITH WINDS BEING ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WHERE
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL END UP. AS WE GET INTO
TONIGHT...ACTUALLY TRENDED BACK OVERNIGHT LOWS A TOUCH...AS THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LITTLE
WIND...DRIER AIR IN A COOL AIRMASS. TRENDED LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
/WHICH IS LOWER THAN MODEL OUTPUT/...WITH MID/UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE HOW 12Z
GUIDANCE/MODELS TREND...DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

STARING WED MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO HAVE
A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN IDENTIFYING A MINOR DISTURBANCE WORKING
THROUGH THE TOP OF RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF
THIS WAVE WOULD PLACE THE BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTHEAST. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS OVER THE CENTER OF OUR CWA NOT PRODUCING MUCH
LIFT...AS NOTED FROM OMEGA VALUES AND OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ALSO LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER. THUS WILL KEEP IT DRY.

FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS VANCOUVER AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
FRIDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THUS WE CAN EXPECT
FRIDAY TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER
THAN WE WILL SEE ON WED AND THU. STILL...WE SHOULD AVOID THE
REALLY COLD AIR LIKE PARTS OF NDAK AND MN WHICH MAY ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD END UP TO OUR EAST
BY SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH PUTTING US IN
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT WITH
SATURDAY`S HIGHS STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MID 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FINALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE SHARP TROUGH NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND SHOULD BE OVER THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS... AS IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. IT THEN CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. OF
COURSE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT...IN BOTH TIME AND
DISTANCE. THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WHETHER OR NOT WE COULD SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION TYPE OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH SO MANY QUESTIONS...WILL MOST LIKELY STICK CLOSE TO CR
EXTENDED GUIDANCE. FOR THE TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIP IS IN THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AS BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE MU-CAPE IN THE 300-500 J/KG
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA.
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES PASS
THROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA /BUT INCHING CLOSER WITH
TIME/ WILL KEEP WINDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
AGAIN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 280524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WOUND UP
GETTING WARMER THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AS MIXING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH WAS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FINALLY TAKING
HOLD IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A DECLINE INTO EVENING. JET DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDING SOME LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL SKY COVER. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE VIRGA...BUT CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY AT THE SURFACE...THE MOST
ANYBODY MAY SEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE
SPRINKLES OR VIRGA. SOUNDINGS HAVE SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V SHAPE
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS LENDING TO SOME GUSTINESS. THE WIND SHOULD
WANE THIS EVENING AS INSOLATION DECREASES. THE SHOT AT SPRINKLES
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT SHIFTS IN
THAT DIRECTION. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.

MID-LEVEL SKY COVER MAY HANG AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS...I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS.
ALSO...I KEPT SIMILAR OR LOWERED HIGHS A BIT...COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I FAVOR THE BCCONSRAW SOLUTION THAT TENDS TO DO
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SO HIGHS IN THE TRI-
CITIES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

PATTERN: DONT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE THRU THE BALANCE
OF THIS FCST AND PROBABLY THRU THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOV AS WELL. WE
ARE 5 DAYS INTO WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EXCEEDINGLY DRY PATTERN.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU NEXT MON.

ALOFT: A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE WX. HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE
E PAC TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW COMING OFF RUSSIA. THIS WILL
FORCE HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE WRN USA WED-THU WITH NW FLOW EVOLVING
HERE. THE RESULTANT RIDGE WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS FRI. THE E PAC
TROF WILL ADVANCE ONSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE SAT-
SUN. THE TROF IS FCST TO ARRIVE HERE MON-TUE NOV 3-4.

THE LOW/COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE CONUS IS MOISTURE
STARVED AND WILL ONLY FURTHER SUPPRESS GULF MOISTURE. THE DOWNSTREAM
EFFECTS OF THE BUILDING WRN USA RIDGE WILL REINFORCE THIS...SENDING
ANOTHER CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
KEEP THE FLOW OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF SO THE SYSTEM NEXT MON-TUE WILL
BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS WELL.

NOT GOOD FOR GETTING ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT. A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL DIVE FROM ND WED AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THU. A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WED IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW
WITH ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU WED NIGHT. CNTRL CANADA HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THU IN ITS WAKE. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SE INTO THE ERN USA
FRI-SAT-SUN. THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ONSHORE IN THE W FRI AND
ITS PASSAGE HERE IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUN. THIS COULD BE PRECEDED
BY A WARM FRONT SAT. WRN USA HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND MON.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY.

WED: WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE GFS IS
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH A BURST OF HIGH RH 18-22K FT. NAM/GFS/GEM
DONT HAVE IT. SO THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST.

TEMPS REBOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEAK CLIPPER SLIDING SE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS OFFERS
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WHILE CONSENSUS OF MOS IS ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN
NORMAL. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE WHICH SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE.

COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

THU: SUNNY IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THERE SHOULD
BE NO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM WED. MAYBE 1-2F COOLER.

FRI: RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BUT IT WILL ACTUALLY TURN COOLER WITH
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. POSSIBLY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. 12Z CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS OFFERS 48-55F FOR HIGHS AND THIS FCST PACKAGE IS NOT
QUITE THAT CHILLY.

SUBSTANTIAL CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. A STRONG
COLD HIGH WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE ERN USA. THIS AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. I MENTION THAT
SOLELY TO INDICATE THE CHILL IN THIS AIR MASS.

SAT: SHORTENING WAVELENGTHS ALOFT MEANS A STRONG ERN USA HIGH
/1030 MB/. AND THE SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE WRN USA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRES GRADIENT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM.

WINDS WERE INCREASED IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT NOV 1ST WE NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SUN: LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY WITH THE LOW HEADING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITHOUT INSTABILITY THIS IS NOT A GOOD TRACK FOR RAIN HERE.
DECREASING WIND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS/EC FCST A
NARROW TONGUE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO ADVECT NORTHWARD BY
AFTERNOON. THAT LEADS TO SBLI AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. SO A SHWR AND POSSIBLY A TSTM COULD DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

MON: COOLER AND PROBABLY DRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THEREAFTER THE LONGWAVES REVERT TO AN E PAC TROF AND RIDGE OVER THE
WRN USA. THAT MEANS DRY NW FLOW CONTS. SO THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN SUN-SUN NIGHT IS SLIM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS BEFORE AND MORE TO
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA.
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES PASS
THROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA /BUT INCHING CLOSER WITH
TIME/ WILL KEEP WINDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
AGAIN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 272322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WOUND UP
GETTING WARMER THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AS MIXING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH WAS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FINALLY TAKING
HOLD IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A DECLINE INTO EVENING. JET DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDING SOME LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL SKY COVER. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE VIRGA...BUT CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY AT THE SURFACE...THE MOST
ANYBODY MAY SEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE
SPRINKLES OR VIRGA. SOUNDINGS HAVE SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V SHAPE
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS LENDING TO SOME GUSTINESS. THE WIND SHOULD
WANE THIS EVENING AS INSOLATION DECREASES. THE SHOT AT SPRINKLES
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT SHIFTS IN
THAT DIRECTION. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.

MID-LEVEL SKY COVER MAY HANG AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS...I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS.
ALSO...I KEPT SIMILAR OR LOWERED HIGHS A BIT...COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I FAVOR THE BCCONSRAW SOLUTION THAT TENDS TO DO
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SO HIGHS IN THE TRI-
CITIES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

PATTERN: DONT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE THRU THE BALANCE
OF THIS FCST AND PROBABLY THRU THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOV AS WELL. WE
ARE 5 DAYS INTO WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EXCEEDINGLY DRY PATTERN.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU NEXT MON.

ALOFT: A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE WX. HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE
E PAC TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW COMING OFF RUSSIA. THIS WILL
FORCE HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE WRN USA WED-THU WITH NW FLOW EVOLVING
HERE. THE RESULTANT RIDGE WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS FRI. THE E PAC
TROF WILL ADVANCE ONSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE SAT-
SUN. THE TROF IS FCST TO ARRIVE HERE MON-TUE NOV 3-4.

THE LOW/COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE CONUS IS MOISTURE
STARVED AND WILL ONLY FURTHER SUPPRESS GULF MOISTURE. THE DOWNSTREAM
EFFECTS OF THE BUILDING WRN USA RIDGE WILL REINFORCE THIS...SENDING
ANOTHER CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
KEEP THE FLOW OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF SO THE SYSTEM NEXT MON-TUE WILL
BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS WELL.

NOT GOOD FOR GETTING ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT. A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL DIVE FROM ND WED AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THU. A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WED IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW
WITH ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU WED NIGHT. CNTRL CANADA HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THU IN ITS WAKE. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SE INTO THE ERN USA
FRI-SAT-SUN. THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ONSHORE IN THE W FRI AND
ITS PASSAGE HERE IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUN. THIS COULD BE PRECEDED
BY A WARM FRONT SAT. WRN USA HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND MON.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY.

WED: WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE GFS IS
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH A BURST OF HIGH RH 18-22K FT. NAM/GFS/GEM
DONT HAVE IT. SO THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST.

TEMPS REBOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEAK CLIPPER SLIDING SE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS OFFERS
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WHILE CONSENSUS OF MOS IS ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN
NORMAL. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE WHICH SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE.

COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

THU: SUNNY IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THERE SHOULD
BE NO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM WED. MAYBE 1-2F COOLER.

FRI: RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BUT IT WILL ACTUALLY TURN COOLER WITH
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. POSSIBLY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. 12Z CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS OFFERS 48-55F FOR HIGHS AND THIS FCST PACKAGE IS NOT
QUITE THAT CHILLY.

SUBSTANTIAL CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. A STRONG
COLD HIGH WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE ERN USA. THIS AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. I MENTION THAT
SOLELY TO INDICATE THE CHILL IN THIS AIR MASS.

SAT: SHORTENING WAVELENGTHS ALOFT MEANS A STRONG ERN USA HIGH
/1030 MB/. AND THE SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE WRN USA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRES GRADIENT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM.

WINDS WERE INCREASED IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT NOV 1ST WE NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SUN: LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY WITH THE LOW HEADING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITHOUT INSTABILITY THIS IS NOT A GOOD TRACK FOR RAIN HERE.
DECREASING WIND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS/EC FCST A
NARROW TONGUE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO ADVECT NORTHWARD BY
AFTERNOON. THAT LEADS TO SBLI AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. SO A SHWR AND POSSIBLY A TSTM COULD DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

MON: COOLER AND PROBABLY DRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THEREAFTER THE LONGWAVES REVERT TO AN E PAC TROF AND RIDGE OVER THE
WRN USA. THAT MEANS DRY NW FLOW CONTS. SO THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN SUN-SUN NIGHT IS SLIM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS BEFORE AND MORE TO
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING IN DEEP MIXING BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 272043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SPRINKLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WOUND UP
GETTING WARMER THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AS MIXING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH WAS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
INITIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FINALLY TAKING
HOLD IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A DECLINE INTO EVENING. JET DYNAMICS ARE PROVIDING SOME LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL SKY COVER. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE VIRGA...BUT CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY AT THE SURFACE...THE MOST
ANYBODY MAY SEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE
SPRINKLES OR VIRGA. SOUNDINGS HAVE SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V SHAPE
IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS LENDING TO SOME GUSTINESS. THE WIND SHOULD
WANE THIS EVENING AS INSOLATION DECREASES. THE SHOT AT SPRINKLES
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT SHIFTS IN
THAT DIRECTION. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.

MID-LEVEL SKY COVER MAY HANG AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS...I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS.
ALSO...I KEPT SIMILAR OR LOWERED HIGHS A BIT...COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS I FAVOR THE BCCONSRAW SOLUTION THAT TENDS TO DO
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SO HIGHS IN THE TRI-
CITIES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

PATTERN: DONT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE THRU THE BALANCE
OF THIS FCST AND PROBABLY THRU THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOV AS WELL. WE
ARE 5 DAYS INTO WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EXCEEDINGLY DRY PATTERN.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THRU NEXT MON.

ALOFT: A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE WX. HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER THE
E PAC TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW COMING OFF RUSSIA. THIS WILL
FORCE HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE WRN USA WED-THU WITH NW FLOW EVOLVING
HERE. THE RESULTANT RIDGE WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS FRI. THE E PAC
TROF WILL ADVANCE ONSHORE FRI NIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE SAT-
SUN. THE TROF IS FCST TO ARRIVE HERE MON-TUE NOV 3-4.

THE LOW/COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE CONUS IS MOISTURE
STARVED AND WILL ONLY FURTHER SUPPRESS GULF MOISTURE. THE DOWNSTREAM
EFFECTS OF THE BUILDING WRN USA RIDGE WILL REINFORCE THIS...SENDING
ANOTHER CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
KEEP THE FLOW OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF SO THE SYSTEM NEXT MON-TUE WILL
BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS WELL.

NOT GOOD FOR GETTING ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HERE.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT. A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL DIVE FROM ND WED AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THU. A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WED IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW
WITH ITS COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU WED NIGHT. CNTRL CANADA HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THU IN ITS WAKE. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SE INTO THE ERN USA
FRI-SAT-SUN. THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ONSHORE IN THE W FRI AND
ITS PASSAGE HERE IS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR SUN. THIS COULD BE PRECEDED
BY A WARM FRONT SAT. WRN USA HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND MON.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY.

WED: WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE GFS IS
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH A BURST OF HIGH RH 18-22K FT. NAM/GFS/GEM
DONT HAVE IT. SO THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST.

TEMPS REBOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEAK CLIPPER SLIDING SE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS OFFERS
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WHILE CONSENSUS OF MOS IS ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN
NORMAL. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE WHICH SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE.

COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT.

THU: SUNNY IN THE COOL SECTOR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THERE SHOULD
BE NO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS FROM WED. MAYBE 1-2F COOLER.

FRI: RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BUT IT WILL ACTUALLY TURN COOLER WITH
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. POSSIBLY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. 12Z CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS OFFERS 48-55F FOR HIGHS AND THIS FCST PACKAGE IS NOT
QUITE THAT CHILLY.

SUBSTANTIAL CIRROSTRATUS WILL BE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. A STRONG
COLD HIGH WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE ERN USA. THIS AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. I MENTION THAT
SOLELY TO INDICATE THE CHILL IN THIS AIR MASS.

SAT: SHORTENING WAVELENGTHS ALOFT MEANS A STRONG ERN USA HIGH
/1030 MB/. AND THE SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE WRN USA WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRES GRADIENT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY WINDY SYSTEM.

WINDS WERE INCREASED IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT NOV 1ST WE NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES.

SUN: LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY WITH THE LOW HEADING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITHOUT INSTABILITY THIS IS NOT A GOOD TRACK FOR RAIN HERE.
DECREASING WIND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS/EC FCST A
NARROW TONGUE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO ADVECT NORTHWARD BY
AFTERNOON. THAT LEADS TO SBLI AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. SO A SHWR AND POSSIBLY A TSTM COULD DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

MON: COOLER AND PROBABLY DRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

THEREAFTER THE LONGWAVES REVERT TO AN E PAC TROF AND RIDGE OVER THE
WRN USA. THAT MEANS DRY NW FLOW CONTS. SO THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN SUN-SUN NIGHT IS SLIM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS BEFORE AND MORE TO
FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN. THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 00Z BEFORE SLACKING OFF. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK A
BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH MORE GUSTS AS
MIXING ENSUES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 271736
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

ISSUED ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY.
NUMERICAL WEATHER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL MIX UP TO ABOUT
800 MB...WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING 30 MPH. THIS THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH
STRONGER WIND NORTHEAST AND WEAKER WIND IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 10 MPH IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO 7
DEGREES...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...STATIONS HAVE WARMED UP A BIT MORE THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...PERHAPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY NOT RISE TOO MUCH MORE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING...AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE MONTANA/CANADA
BORDER. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE MAIN LOW IS MOVING INTO WY/CO...WITH
SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM THE FAR SWRN NEB PANHANDLE UP
INTO CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO
THE AREA BY THIS DISTURBANCE AS STARTED MOVING INTO NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AS OF 3 AM WINDS AT LXN/ODX HAD SWITCHED TO THE NW
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS CONTINUED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE.

THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...DIDNT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT EVEN THOUGH LIFT IS IN THE AREA THANKS TO THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE CHANCES FOR THE CWA TO SEE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION JUST ISNT THAT GREAT. AS MODELS WERE HINTING AT LAST
NIGHT...THE 4KM/HRRR/RAP ALL HAVE JOINED IN ON THE SAME GENERAL
STORY...THAT OUTSIDE OF THE NW AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEING
POTENTIALLY CLIPPED BY THE SRN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...DONT EXPECT MUCH. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THOSE N/NWRN ARES SEEING SOME PRECIP BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...KEPT THOSE POPS LOW. WITH
THE BETTER LIFTING SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT REMAINS A DRY ONE.

STILL LOOKING AT A BREEZY DAY TODAY...AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING BRING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. AFTER SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...THAT COOLER AIR MOVING
IN IS EXPECTED TO DROP HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NEAR 60 IN THE N/NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE SE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

IT APPEARS DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED AS IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE WAVE TRAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MN...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH WEST
OF VANCOUVER ADVANCING EAST. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC MODELS TAKE A
WEAK WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVE IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS SHOULD HELP ADVANCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS AS MID LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE WHEN CHECKING OMEGA VALUES ON A FEW TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COOLER AIR TO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE PERIOD. EVEN AT THAT HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EVERYTHING SHIFTING EAST. BY SAT
MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND EC ARE VERY SIMILAR CONSIDERING THAT IS 132 HOURS
OUT...WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER. AT ANY RATE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM A BIT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER THE AREA. AGAIN BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THINGS EAST SO
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS SLATED TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE ROCKIES. IT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT
OUR CWA REMAINS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME BUT WILL AFFECT US SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THAT TIME. THIS
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW IT PLAYS OUT AS THE WEEK ROLLS ALONG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN. THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 00Z BEFORE SLACKING OFF. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK A
BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH MORE GUSTS AS
MIXING ENSUES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 271722
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO 7
DEGREES...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...STATIONS HAVE WARMED UP A BIT MORE THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...PERHAPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECT. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY NOT RISE TOO MUCH MORE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING...AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE MONTANA/CANADA
BORDER. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE MAIN LOW IS MOVING INTO WY/CO...WITH
SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM THE FAR SWRN NEB PANHANDLE UP
INTO CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO
THE AREA BY THIS DISTURBANCE AS STARTED MOVING INTO NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AS OF 3 AM WINDS AT LXN/ODX HAD SWITCHED TO THE NW
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS CONTINUED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE.

THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...DIDNT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT EVEN THOUGH LIFT IS IN THE AREA THANKS TO THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE CHANCES FOR THE CWA TO SEE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION JUST ISNT THAT GREAT. AS MODELS WERE HINTING AT LAST
NIGHT...THE 4KM/HRRR/RAP ALL HAVE JOINED IN ON THE SAME GENERAL
STORY...THAT OUTSIDE OF THE NW AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEING
POTENTIALLY CLIPPED BY THE SRN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...DONT EXPECT MUCH. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THOSE N/NWRN ARES SEEING SOME PRECIP BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...KEPT THOSE POPS LOW. WITH
THE BETTER LIFTING SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT REMAINS A DRY ONE.

STILL LOOKING AT A BREEZY DAY TODAY...AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING BRING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. AFTER SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...THAT COOLER AIR MOVING
IN IS EXPECTED TO DROP HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NEAR 60 IN THE N/NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE SE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

IT APPEARS DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED AS IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE WAVE TRAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MN...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH WEST
OF VANCOUVER ADVANCING EAST. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC MODELS TAKE A
WEAK WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVE IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS SHOULD HELP ADVANCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS AS MID LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE WHEN CHECKING OMEGA VALUES ON A FEW TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COOLER AIR TO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE PERIOD. EVEN AT THAT HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EVERYTHING SHIFTING EAST. BY SAT
MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND EC ARE VERY SIMILAR CONSIDERING THAT IS 132 HOURS
OUT...WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER. AT ANY RATE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM A BIT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER THE AREA. AGAIN BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THINGS EAST SO
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS SLATED TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE ROCKIES. IT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT
OUR CWA REMAINS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME BUT WILL AFFECT US SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THAT TIME. THIS
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW IT PLAYS OUT AS THE WEEK ROLLS ALONG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN. THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 00Z BEFORE SLACKING OFF. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK A
BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH MORE GUSTS AS
MIXING ENSUES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





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