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000
FXUS63 KGID 302331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THE PAST FEW EVENINGS
AND THE 22Z HRRR REDEVELOPING DENSE FOG ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA...OPTED TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
KGRI...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS KEAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO BURN OFF RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 302331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THE PAST FEW EVENINGS
AND THE 22Z HRRR REDEVELOPING DENSE FOG ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA...OPTED TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
KGRI...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS KEAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO BURN OFF RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 302331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THE PAST FEW EVENINGS
AND THE 22Z HRRR REDEVELOPING DENSE FOG ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA...OPTED TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
KGRI...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS KEAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO BURN OFF RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 301839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
139 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 301839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
139 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 301839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
139 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 301050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 301050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 301001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 301001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 300807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 300807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 292059
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 292059
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 291529
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1029 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WORST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS FOG HAS MADE IT INTO KGRI...BUT AS OF 515 AM
KEAR HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST UNTIL JUST HAVE DAWN WHEN IT
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE. KEAR COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG
BEFORE IT ALL BEGINS TO BURN OFF. KGRI HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM
AND 200 FT AGL CEILINGS. THIS IS A RADIATION FOG AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 291036
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WORST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS FOG HAS MADE IT INTO KGRI...BUT AS OF 515 AM
KEAR HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST UNTIL JUST HAVE DAWN WHEN IT
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE. KEAR COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG
BEFORE IT ALL BEGINS TO BURN OFF. KGRI HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM
AND 200 FT AGL CEILINGS. THIS IS A RADIATION FOG AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 291036
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WORST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS FOG HAS MADE IT INTO KGRI...BUT AS OF 515 AM
KEAR HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST UNTIL JUST HAVE DAWN WHEN IT
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE. KEAR COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG
BEFORE IT ALL BEGINS TO BURN OFF. KGRI HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM
AND 200 FT AGL CEILINGS. THIS IS A RADIATION FOG AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290831
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
331 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW FORECAST MODELS SOCK IN
PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND EASTER ZONES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AT
1230 AM THERE WAS A LOW CLOUD BANK ABOUT 25 TO 50 MILES EAST OF
KGRI AND THAT COULD SNEAK WEST INTO KGRI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
KEAR AS WE NEAR DAWN. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN OUR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN OUR TAF MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290831
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
331 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW FORECAST MODELS SOCK IN
PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND EASTER ZONES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AT
1230 AM THERE WAS A LOW CLOUD BANK ABOUT 25 TO 50 MILES EAST OF
KGRI AND THAT COULD SNEAK WEST INTO KGRI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
KEAR AS WE NEAR DAWN. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN OUR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN OUR TAF MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 290554
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW FORECAST MODELS SOCK IN
PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND EASTER ZONES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AT
1230 AM THERE WAS A LOW CLOUD BANK ABOUT 25 TO 50 MILES EAST OF
KGRI AND THAT COULD SNEAK WEST INTO KGRI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
KEAR AS WE NEAR DAWN. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN OUR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN OUR TAF MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290554
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW FORECAST MODELS SOCK IN
PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND EASTER ZONES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AT
1230 AM THERE WAS A LOW CLOUD BANK ABOUT 25 TO 50 MILES EAST OF
KGRI AND THAT COULD SNEAK WEST INTO KGRI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
KEAR AS WE NEAR DAWN. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN OUR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN OUR TAF MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 290554
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW FORECAST MODELS SOCK IN
PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND EASTER ZONES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AT
1230 AM THERE WAS A LOW CLOUD BANK ABOUT 25 TO 50 MILES EAST OF
KGRI AND THAT COULD SNEAK WEST INTO KGRI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
KEAR AS WE NEAR DAWN. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN OUR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN OUR TAF MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290554
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW FORECAST MODELS SOCK IN
PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND EASTER ZONES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AT
1230 AM THERE WAS A LOW CLOUD BANK ABOUT 25 TO 50 MILES EAST OF
KGRI AND THAT COULD SNEAK WEST INTO KGRI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
KEAR AS WE NEAR DAWN. IF THIS HAPPENS THEN OUR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN OUR TAF MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 282317
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
ALL POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
NEAR BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS GENERATING DENSE FOG...THINK THE LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND LIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS...WILL
HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 282317
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
ALL POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
NEAR BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS GENERATING DENSE FOG...THINK THE LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND LIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS...WILL
HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 282317
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
ALL POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
NEAR BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS GENERATING DENSE FOG...THINK THE LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND LIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS...WILL
HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 282317
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
ALL POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
NEAR BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS GENERATING DENSE FOG...THINK THE LESS
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND LIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS...WILL
HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 282103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...TRENDING TO VFR THIS
AFTN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
JUST YET. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 282103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...TRENDING TO VFR THIS
AFTN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
JUST YET. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 282103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...TRENDING TO VFR THIS
AFTN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
JUST YET. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 282103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA/SOUTHERN MN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO EASTERN KS. COOLER TEMPS HAVE SETTLED
ONTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE 70S
AND 80S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ONTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

ON SATURDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING INSOLATION DURING THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE
ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST. THE AIRMASS
MODERATES ACROSS OUR REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY
TO THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS TO AVERAGE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90F IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TAKING A BROAD OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...IT REMAINS A
"PRIMARILY" DRY FORECAST...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY-ABOVE AVERAGE/NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
HOWEVER...AS WAS FULLY SUSPECTED AS A DECENT POSSIBILITY HERE 24
HOURS AGO...THE ENTIRE FORECAST IS NO LONGER "DRY"
THROUGHOUT...AND NOW CONTAINS VARIOUS 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCES
(POPS) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE NEARER-TERM...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH
THAT THE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY DAYTIME WILL IN FACT REMAIN DRY
AREA-WIDE.

A FEW COMMENTS REGARDING PRECIP/STORM CHANCES; AS CAN BE INFERRED
BY THE FACT THE RAIN CHANCES THAT DO EXIST ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. IF NOTHING
ELSE...THIS MEANS THAT FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW OUR FORECAST
CLOSELY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY "JUMP AROUND" A BIT BOTH IN TIMING AND/OR AREA
OVER THE COMING DAYS...SO DON`T GET TOO "HUNG UP" ON THEM. IN
OTHER WORDS...A FEW DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY MAY END UP
BEING ASSIGNED SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS...AND SOME
DAYS/NIGHTS CURRENTLY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES MAY TREND DRY. AS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT CERTAINLY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...NOTHING LOOKS LIKE
AN "OBVIOUS CONCERN" YET...AND THUS IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO START
TALKING ANY LEGIT POSSIBILITIES.

BRIEFLY TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...IF
ANYTHING HAVE NUDGED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES ON MOST DAYS...AND
MORE-SO 2-3 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT ALTHOUGH
NOT BLAZING HOT BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S IN SOME
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL: JUST AS THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER
HAS INTRODUCED SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT AND
LIKEWISE INTRODUCE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" WORDING FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR GENERALLY THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON
SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE THAT FOG
BECOMES IMPACTFUL/DENSE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR EASTERN-MOST TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST BREEZES SHOULD
RESIDE. HOWEVER...WITH THIS STILL BEING OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET AND JUST START
THINGS OUT WITH BASELINE WORDING.

BRIEFLY GLOSSING OVER SOME DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-36
HOURS BLOCKS:

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE ITS DRY WITH A LARGE-
SCALE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. AS
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE BY PROMOTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES...IN FACT VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN ZONES. AS JUST
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: COULD BE LINGERING FOG FOR A FEW HOURS POST-
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DOMINANT. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PICK UP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS POTENTIALLY 15+ MPH IN WESTERN ZONES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM/DRY DAY WITH DECENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT: THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EVEN MORE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE QUASI-ZONAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE APPARENT
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HINT AT
SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT: HAVE KEPT THESE 24 HOURS DRY AREA-WIDE...AS
THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK
NORTH.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEFT THURSDAY DAYTIME DRY...BUT HAVE
ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO STAND FOR THURS NIGHT-FRIDAY AS
WEAK ENERGY WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT STILL WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
HANGING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...TRENDING TO VFR THIS
AFTN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
JUST YET. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 281723
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...TRENDING TO VFR THIS
AFTN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
JUST YET. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 281138
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS BUT SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND COULD BECOME MORE VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 281138
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS BUT SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND COULD BECOME MORE VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 281138
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS BUT SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND COULD BECOME MORE VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 281138
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE TERMINAL AREAS BUT SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND COULD BECOME MORE VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 280906
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 280906
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 280906
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 280906
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF...OR NEARLY OUT OF...THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES ARE AROUND 83 TO 84 DEGREES WHILE WE
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 85 TO 89 EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE
JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN AND KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS WEEKEND WHILE HELPING TO ALSO PUSH THE TEMPERATURE
UPWARD.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A VERY WEAK FEATURE AND EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE THAT WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
ALLOW FOR SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 280517
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TRENDS REVEAL WEAKENING STORMS AND SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO TACK ON DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE STARTED TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. AT THE
SFC...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER KMCK...A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE AND COLD FRONT
SITTING OVER WRN KS. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING KEEP TEMPS NORTH OF THAT WARM FROM IN THE 80S.
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...ESP IN AREAS AROUND
PHG/HYS/RSL...GOOD MIXING TANKED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS ROSE TO NEAR EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE.

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GENERAL STORY WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASICALLY PUSHING EAST NEAR THE
NE/SD STATE LINE...WITH HI RES MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMING HOURS JUST OFF TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...SLIDING INTO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THEREAFTER.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN THEN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MODELS SHOW
THAT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE SFC
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWN BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP
MOVING OUT ISNT THE HIGHEST...THINKING FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...AND DID KEEP THE LINGERING 20 POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY
/WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IF WE HAD MORE SUN
TODAY/...RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TOP TO BOTTOM...THIS IS THE OVERALL "QUIETEST" LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 2-7) THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN A COUPLE MONTHS NOW.
OFFICIALLY...ALL 12 OF THESE DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS CONTINUE
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE (SEE BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
CAVEATS)...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF COOLER 50S RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES. IN
OTHER WORDS...VERSUS NORMALS/AVERAGES...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO "GUARANTEED DRY" AS ONE CAN NORMALLY GET IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME FRAME...PLEASE...PLEASE NOTE THAT LATER FORECASTS MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP INSERTING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS ITSELF FORWARD...WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
QPF ESPECIALLY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT "FISHY"/OVERDONE...AND
BESIDES...THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SPARSE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER WEIGHING THE VARIOUS PROS/CONS OF
POSSIBLY INTRODUCING LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THIS TIME
FRAME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW
BY LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVELS. BESIDES...FROM A "FORECAST FLIP- FLIP"
PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT JUST REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES
FROM TUESDAY...SO WOULD RATHER NOT TOSS THEM BACK IN ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER WITHOUT STRONGER MODEL SUPPORT.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR UPWARD TRENDING
TO DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT TO
THE MON-THURS TIME FRAME AS WELL. IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COME SEVERAL DAYS OF AT
LEAST "BREEZY" CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING THAT YET APPEARS TO
FEATURE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH.

CONSIDERED JOINING NWS OAX TO MY EAST WITH A MENTION OF "PATCHY
FOG" FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW UNLESS/UNTIL VARIOUS FOG GUIDANCE (INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) STARTS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT SOME DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAIL IN 12-36
HOUR BLOCKS:

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
IA/IL...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IA INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN KS. VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING RATHER CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...BUT BARRING A NOTICEABLE SLOW DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST CWA-
WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHERLY EVENING BREEZES BECOMING
MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT: RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE MORNING...WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT
HAVE REFRAINED FROM A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS AS A
PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST TO NEAR-90 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH...BREEZES SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
OVERALL- LIGHTEST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...AS IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROMINENT...POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING FORCING FOR CONVECTION LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
CERTAINLY BREEZIER...WITH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY FOR 4 DAYS OUT) IN A DRY DAY...PER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION PARAGRAPH...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE AT LEAST A
TOUCH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO AT
LEAST IMPINGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: AGAIN...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...KEEPING
THESE 24 HOURS VOID OF AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
INCREASINGLY-DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER
THE GFS). STILL THOUGH...AM A BIT SUSPECT THAT MUCH CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...AS EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS A BIT...THERE ARE ALSO CERTAINLY NO PROMINENT MID-
UPPER FEATURES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
END...DECIDED THAT "SILENT" 10 POPS ARE THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW
UNTIL IT DRAWS NEARER.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT
"GUARANTEE" THAT THESE LAST 36 HOURS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME THAT DIDN`T EVEN
CONSIDER "RUINING" THE GOING DRY FORECAST YET. IN THE MID- UPPER
LEVELS...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
REGION ONLY SEES LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 280517
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TRENDS REVEAL WEAKENING STORMS AND SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO TACK ON DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE STARTED TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. AT THE
SFC...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER KMCK...A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE AND COLD FRONT
SITTING OVER WRN KS. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING KEEP TEMPS NORTH OF THAT WARM FROM IN THE 80S.
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...ESP IN AREAS AROUND
PHG/HYS/RSL...GOOD MIXING TANKED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS ROSE TO NEAR EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE.

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GENERAL STORY WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASICALLY PUSHING EAST NEAR THE
NE/SD STATE LINE...WITH HI RES MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMING HOURS JUST OFF TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...SLIDING INTO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THEREAFTER.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN THEN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MODELS SHOW
THAT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE SFC
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWN BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP
MOVING OUT ISNT THE HIGHEST...THINKING FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...AND DID KEEP THE LINGERING 20 POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY
/WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IF WE HAD MORE SUN
TODAY/...RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TOP TO BOTTOM...THIS IS THE OVERALL "QUIETEST" LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 2-7) THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN A COUPLE MONTHS NOW.
OFFICIALLY...ALL 12 OF THESE DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS CONTINUE
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE (SEE BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
CAVEATS)...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF COOLER 50S RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES. IN
OTHER WORDS...VERSUS NORMALS/AVERAGES...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO "GUARANTEED DRY" AS ONE CAN NORMALLY GET IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME FRAME...PLEASE...PLEASE NOTE THAT LATER FORECASTS MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP INSERTING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS ITSELF FORWARD...WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
QPF ESPECIALLY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT "FISHY"/OVERDONE...AND
BESIDES...THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SPARSE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER WEIGHING THE VARIOUS PROS/CONS OF
POSSIBLY INTRODUCING LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THIS TIME
FRAME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW
BY LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVELS. BESIDES...FROM A "FORECAST FLIP- FLIP"
PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT JUST REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES
FROM TUESDAY...SO WOULD RATHER NOT TOSS THEM BACK IN ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER WITHOUT STRONGER MODEL SUPPORT.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR UPWARD TRENDING
TO DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT TO
THE MON-THURS TIME FRAME AS WELL. IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COME SEVERAL DAYS OF AT
LEAST "BREEZY" CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING THAT YET APPEARS TO
FEATURE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH.

CONSIDERED JOINING NWS OAX TO MY EAST WITH A MENTION OF "PATCHY
FOG" FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW UNLESS/UNTIL VARIOUS FOG GUIDANCE (INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) STARTS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT SOME DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAIL IN 12-36
HOUR BLOCKS:

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
IA/IL...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IA INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN KS. VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING RATHER CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...BUT BARRING A NOTICEABLE SLOW DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST CWA-
WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHERLY EVENING BREEZES BECOMING
MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT: RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE MORNING...WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT
HAVE REFRAINED FROM A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS AS A
PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST TO NEAR-90 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH...BREEZES SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
OVERALL- LIGHTEST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...AS IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROMINENT...POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING FORCING FOR CONVECTION LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
CERTAINLY BREEZIER...WITH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY FOR 4 DAYS OUT) IN A DRY DAY...PER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION PARAGRAPH...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE AT LEAST A
TOUCH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO AT
LEAST IMPINGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: AGAIN...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...KEEPING
THESE 24 HOURS VOID OF AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
INCREASINGLY-DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER
THE GFS). STILL THOUGH...AM A BIT SUSPECT THAT MUCH CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...AS EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS A BIT...THERE ARE ALSO CERTAINLY NO PROMINENT MID-
UPPER FEATURES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
END...DECIDED THAT "SILENT" 10 POPS ARE THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW
UNTIL IT DRAWS NEARER.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT
"GUARANTEE" THAT THESE LAST 36 HOURS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME THAT DIDN`T EVEN
CONSIDER "RUINING" THE GOING DRY FORECAST YET. IN THE MID- UPPER
LEVELS...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
REGION ONLY SEES LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 280517
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TRENDS REVEAL WEAKENING STORMS AND SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO TACK ON DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE STARTED TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. AT THE
SFC...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER KMCK...A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE AND COLD FRONT
SITTING OVER WRN KS. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING KEEP TEMPS NORTH OF THAT WARM FROM IN THE 80S.
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...ESP IN AREAS AROUND
PHG/HYS/RSL...GOOD MIXING TANKED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS ROSE TO NEAR EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE.

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GENERAL STORY WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASICALLY PUSHING EAST NEAR THE
NE/SD STATE LINE...WITH HI RES MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMING HOURS JUST OFF TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...SLIDING INTO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THEREAFTER.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN THEN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MODELS SHOW
THAT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE SFC
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWN BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP
MOVING OUT ISNT THE HIGHEST...THINKING FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...AND DID KEEP THE LINGERING 20 POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY
/WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IF WE HAD MORE SUN
TODAY/...RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TOP TO BOTTOM...THIS IS THE OVERALL "QUIETEST" LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 2-7) THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN A COUPLE MONTHS NOW.
OFFICIALLY...ALL 12 OF THESE DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS CONTINUE
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE (SEE BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
CAVEATS)...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF COOLER 50S RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES. IN
OTHER WORDS...VERSUS NORMALS/AVERAGES...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO "GUARANTEED DRY" AS ONE CAN NORMALLY GET IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME FRAME...PLEASE...PLEASE NOTE THAT LATER FORECASTS MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP INSERTING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS ITSELF FORWARD...WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
QPF ESPECIALLY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT "FISHY"/OVERDONE...AND
BESIDES...THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SPARSE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER WEIGHING THE VARIOUS PROS/CONS OF
POSSIBLY INTRODUCING LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THIS TIME
FRAME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW
BY LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVELS. BESIDES...FROM A "FORECAST FLIP- FLIP"
PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT JUST REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES
FROM TUESDAY...SO WOULD RATHER NOT TOSS THEM BACK IN ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER WITHOUT STRONGER MODEL SUPPORT.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR UPWARD TRENDING
TO DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT TO
THE MON-THURS TIME FRAME AS WELL. IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COME SEVERAL DAYS OF AT
LEAST "BREEZY" CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING THAT YET APPEARS TO
FEATURE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH.

CONSIDERED JOINING NWS OAX TO MY EAST WITH A MENTION OF "PATCHY
FOG" FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW UNLESS/UNTIL VARIOUS FOG GUIDANCE (INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) STARTS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT SOME DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAIL IN 12-36
HOUR BLOCKS:

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
IA/IL...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IA INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN KS. VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING RATHER CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...BUT BARRING A NOTICEABLE SLOW DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST CWA-
WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHERLY EVENING BREEZES BECOMING
MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT: RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE MORNING...WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT
HAVE REFRAINED FROM A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS AS A
PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST TO NEAR-90 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH...BREEZES SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
OVERALL- LIGHTEST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...AS IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROMINENT...POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING FORCING FOR CONVECTION LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
CERTAINLY BREEZIER...WITH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY FOR 4 DAYS OUT) IN A DRY DAY...PER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION PARAGRAPH...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE AT LEAST A
TOUCH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO AT
LEAST IMPINGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: AGAIN...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...KEEPING
THESE 24 HOURS VOID OF AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
INCREASINGLY-DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER
THE GFS). STILL THOUGH...AM A BIT SUSPECT THAT MUCH CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...AS EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS A BIT...THERE ARE ALSO CERTAINLY NO PROMINENT MID-
UPPER FEATURES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
END...DECIDED THAT "SILENT" 10 POPS ARE THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW
UNTIL IT DRAWS NEARER.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT
"GUARANTEE" THAT THESE LAST 36 HOURS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME THAT DIDN`T EVEN
CONSIDER "RUINING" THE GOING DRY FORECAST YET. IN THE MID- UPPER
LEVELS...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
REGION ONLY SEES LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 280517
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TRENDS REVEAL WEAKENING STORMS AND SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO TACK ON DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE STARTED TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. AT THE
SFC...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER KMCK...A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE AND COLD FRONT
SITTING OVER WRN KS. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING KEEP TEMPS NORTH OF THAT WARM FROM IN THE 80S.
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...ESP IN AREAS AROUND
PHG/HYS/RSL...GOOD MIXING TANKED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS ROSE TO NEAR EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE.

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GENERAL STORY WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASICALLY PUSHING EAST NEAR THE
NE/SD STATE LINE...WITH HI RES MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMING HOURS JUST OFF TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...SLIDING INTO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THEREAFTER.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN THEN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MODELS SHOW
THAT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE SFC
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWN BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP
MOVING OUT ISNT THE HIGHEST...THINKING FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...AND DID KEEP THE LINGERING 20 POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY
/WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IF WE HAD MORE SUN
TODAY/...RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TOP TO BOTTOM...THIS IS THE OVERALL "QUIETEST" LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 2-7) THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN A COUPLE MONTHS NOW.
OFFICIALLY...ALL 12 OF THESE DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS CONTINUE
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE (SEE BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
CAVEATS)...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF COOLER 50S RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES. IN
OTHER WORDS...VERSUS NORMALS/AVERAGES...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO "GUARANTEED DRY" AS ONE CAN NORMALLY GET IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME FRAME...PLEASE...PLEASE NOTE THAT LATER FORECASTS MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP INSERTING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS ITSELF FORWARD...WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
QPF ESPECIALLY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT "FISHY"/OVERDONE...AND
BESIDES...THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SPARSE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER WEIGHING THE VARIOUS PROS/CONS OF
POSSIBLY INTRODUCING LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THIS TIME
FRAME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW
BY LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVELS. BESIDES...FROM A "FORECAST FLIP- FLIP"
PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT JUST REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES
FROM TUESDAY...SO WOULD RATHER NOT TOSS THEM BACK IN ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER WITHOUT STRONGER MODEL SUPPORT.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR UPWARD TRENDING
TO DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT TO
THE MON-THURS TIME FRAME AS WELL. IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COME SEVERAL DAYS OF AT
LEAST "BREEZY" CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING THAT YET APPEARS TO
FEATURE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH.

CONSIDERED JOINING NWS OAX TO MY EAST WITH A MENTION OF "PATCHY
FOG" FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW UNLESS/UNTIL VARIOUS FOG GUIDANCE (INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) STARTS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT SOME DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAIL IN 12-36
HOUR BLOCKS:

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
IA/IL...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IA INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN KS. VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING RATHER CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...BUT BARRING A NOTICEABLE SLOW DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST CWA-
WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHERLY EVENING BREEZES BECOMING
MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT: RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE MORNING...WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT
HAVE REFRAINED FROM A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS AS A
PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST TO NEAR-90 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH...BREEZES SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
OVERALL- LIGHTEST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...AS IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROMINENT...POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING FORCING FOR CONVECTION LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
CERTAINLY BREEZIER...WITH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY FOR 4 DAYS OUT) IN A DRY DAY...PER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION PARAGRAPH...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE AT LEAST A
TOUCH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO AT
LEAST IMPINGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: AGAIN...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...KEEPING
THESE 24 HOURS VOID OF AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
INCREASINGLY-DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER
THE GFS). STILL THOUGH...AM A BIT SUSPECT THAT MUCH CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...AS EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS A BIT...THERE ARE ALSO CERTAINLY NO PROMINENT MID-
UPPER FEATURES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
END...DECIDED THAT "SILENT" 10 POPS ARE THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW
UNTIL IT DRAWS NEARER.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT
"GUARANTEE" THAT THESE LAST 36 HOURS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME THAT DIDN`T EVEN
CONSIDER "RUINING" THE GOING DRY FORECAST YET. IN THE MID- UPPER
LEVELS...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
REGION ONLY SEES LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HAVE KEPT A FEW VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
QUIET AT KEAR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH HAVE HAD SOME LOWER CEILINGS BUT
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND NOT CERTAIN IF ANY
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND
FINALLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 280258
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
958 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TRENDS REVEAL WEAKENING STORMS AND SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO TACK ON DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE STARTED TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. AT THE
SFC...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER KMCK...A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE AND COLD FRONT
SITTING OVER WRN KS. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING KEEP TEMPS NORTH OF THAT WARM FROM IN THE 80S.
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...ESP IN AREAS AROUND
PHG/HYS/RSL...GOOD MIXING TANKED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS ROSE TO NEAR EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE.

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GENERAL STORY WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASICALLY PUSHING EAST NEAR THE
NE/SD STATE LINE...WITH HI RES MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMING HOURS JUST OFF TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...SLIDING INTO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THEREAFTER.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN THEN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MODELS SHOW
THAT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE SFC
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWN BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP
MOVING OUT ISNT THE HIGHEST...THINKING FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...AND DID KEEP THE LINGERING 20 POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY
/WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IF WE HAD MORE SUN
TODAY/...RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TOP TO BOTTOM...THIS IS THE OVERALL "QUIETEST" LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 2-7) THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN A COUPLE MONTHS NOW.
OFFICIALLY...ALL 12 OF THESE DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS CONTINUE
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE (SEE BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
CAVEATS)...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF COOLER 50S RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES. IN
OTHER WORDS...VERSUS NORMALS/AVERAGES...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO "GUARANTEED DRY" AS ONE CAN NORMALLY GET IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME FRAME...PLEASE...PLEASE NOTE THAT LATER FORECASTS MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP INSERTING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS ITSELF FORWARD...WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
QPF ESPECIALLY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT "FISHY"/OVERDONE...AND
BESIDES...THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SPARSE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER WEIGHING THE VARIOUS PROS/CONS OF
POSSIBLY INTRODUCING LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THIS TIME
FRAME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW
BY LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVELS. BESIDES...FROM A "FORECAST FLIP- FLIP"
PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT JUST REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES
FROM TUESDAY...SO WOULD RATHER NOT TOSS THEM BACK IN ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER WITHOUT STRONGER MODEL SUPPORT.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR UPWARD TRENDING
TO DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT TO
THE MON-THURS TIME FRAME AS WELL. IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COME SEVERAL DAYS OF AT
LEAST "BREEZY" CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING THAT YET APPEARS TO
FEATURE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH.

CONSIDERED JOINING NWS OAX TO MY EAST WITH A MENTION OF "PATCHY
FOG" FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW UNLESS/UNTIL VARIOUS FOG GUIDANCE (INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) STARTS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT SOME DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAIL IN 12-36
HOUR BLOCKS:

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
IA/IL...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IA INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN KS. VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING RATHER CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...BUT BARRING A NOTICEABLE SLOW DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST CWA-
WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHERLY EVENING BREEZES BECOMING
MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT: RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE MORNING...WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT
HAVE REFRAINED FROM A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS AS A
PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST TO NEAR-90 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH...BREEZES SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
OVERALL- LIGHTEST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...AS IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROMINENT...POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING FORCING FOR CONVECTION LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
CERTAINLY BREEZIER...WITH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY FOR 4 DAYS OUT) IN A DRY DAY...PER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION PARAGRAPH...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE AT LEAST A
TOUCH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO AT
LEAST IMPINGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: AGAIN...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...KEEPING
THESE 24 HOURS VOID OF AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
INCREASINGLY-DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER
THE GFS). STILL THOUGH...AM A BIT SUSPECT THAT MUCH CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...AS EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS A BIT...THERE ARE ALSO CERTAINLY NO PROMINENT MID-
UPPER FEATURES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
END...DECIDED THAT "SILENT" 10 POPS ARE THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW
UNTIL IT DRAWS NEARER.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT
"GUARANTEE" THAT THESE LAST 36 HOURS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME THAT DIDN`T EVEN
CONSIDER "RUINING" THE GOING DRY FORECAST YET. IN THE MID- UPPER
LEVELS...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
REGION ONLY SEES LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COULD HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS AROUND AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST
THIS EVENING. UNSURE OF VISIBILITY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING
OF STORMS THIS EVENING AS WELL.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280258
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
958 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO CANCEL THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TRENDS REVEAL WEAKENING STORMS AND SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO TACK ON DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE STARTED TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. AT THE
SFC...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER KMCK...A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE AND COLD FRONT
SITTING OVER WRN KS. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING KEEP TEMPS NORTH OF THAT WARM FROM IN THE 80S.
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...ESP IN AREAS AROUND
PHG/HYS/RSL...GOOD MIXING TANKED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS ROSE TO NEAR EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE.

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GENERAL STORY WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASICALLY PUSHING EAST NEAR THE
NE/SD STATE LINE...WITH HI RES MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMING HOURS JUST OFF TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...SLIDING INTO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THEREAFTER.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN THEN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MODELS SHOW
THAT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE SFC
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWN BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP
MOVING OUT ISNT THE HIGHEST...THINKING FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...AND DID KEEP THE LINGERING 20 POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY
/WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IF WE HAD MORE SUN
TODAY/...RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TOP TO BOTTOM...THIS IS THE OVERALL "QUIETEST" LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 2-7) THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN A COUPLE MONTHS NOW.
OFFICIALLY...ALL 12 OF THESE DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS CONTINUE
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE (SEE BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
CAVEATS)...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF COOLER 50S RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES. IN
OTHER WORDS...VERSUS NORMALS/AVERAGES...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO "GUARANTEED DRY" AS ONE CAN NORMALLY GET IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME FRAME...PLEASE...PLEASE NOTE THAT LATER FORECASTS MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP INSERTING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS ITSELF FORWARD...WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
QPF ESPECIALLY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT "FISHY"/OVERDONE...AND
BESIDES...THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SPARSE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER WEIGHING THE VARIOUS PROS/CONS OF
POSSIBLY INTRODUCING LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THIS TIME
FRAME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW
BY LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVELS. BESIDES...FROM A "FORECAST FLIP- FLIP"
PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT JUST REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES
FROM TUESDAY...SO WOULD RATHER NOT TOSS THEM BACK IN ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER WITHOUT STRONGER MODEL SUPPORT.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR UPWARD TRENDING
TO DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT TO
THE MON-THURS TIME FRAME AS WELL. IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COME SEVERAL DAYS OF AT
LEAST "BREEZY" CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING THAT YET APPEARS TO
FEATURE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH.

CONSIDERED JOINING NWS OAX TO MY EAST WITH A MENTION OF "PATCHY
FOG" FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW UNLESS/UNTIL VARIOUS FOG GUIDANCE (INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) STARTS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT SOME DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAIL IN 12-36
HOUR BLOCKS:

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
IA/IL...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IA INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN KS. VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING RATHER CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...BUT BARRING A NOTICEABLE SLOW DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST CWA-
WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHERLY EVENING BREEZES BECOMING
MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT: RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE MORNING...WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT
HAVE REFRAINED FROM A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS AS A
PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST TO NEAR-90 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH...BREEZES SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
OVERALL- LIGHTEST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...AS IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROMINENT...POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING FORCING FOR CONVECTION LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
CERTAINLY BREEZIER...WITH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY FOR 4 DAYS OUT) IN A DRY DAY...PER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION PARAGRAPH...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE AT LEAST A
TOUCH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO AT
LEAST IMPINGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: AGAIN...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...KEEPING
THESE 24 HOURS VOID OF AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
INCREASINGLY-DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER
THE GFS). STILL THOUGH...AM A BIT SUSPECT THAT MUCH CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...AS EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS A BIT...THERE ARE ALSO CERTAINLY NO PROMINENT MID-
UPPER FEATURES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
END...DECIDED THAT "SILENT" 10 POPS ARE THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW
UNTIL IT DRAWS NEARER.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT
"GUARANTEE" THAT THESE LAST 36 HOURS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME THAT DIDN`T EVEN
CONSIDER "RUINING" THE GOING DRY FORECAST YET. IN THE MID- UPPER
LEVELS...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
REGION ONLY SEES LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COULD HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS AROUND AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST
THIS EVENING. UNSURE OF VISIBILITY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING
OF STORMS THIS EVENING AS WELL.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





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