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000
FXUS63 KGID 260443
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 260443
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 260443
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 260443
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 252300
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

STRATUS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT AND FINALLY START BREAKING
UP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 252300
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

STRATUS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT AND FINALLY START BREAKING
UP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 252016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
AND MVFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...BUT IFR TYPE CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FORECAST ARE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO FELT A TEMPO GROUP WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THE
BASIC TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IFR TO PERHAPS MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 252016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
AND MVFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...BUT IFR TYPE CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FORECAST ARE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO FELT A TEMPO GROUP WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THE
BASIC TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IFR TO PERHAPS MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO





000
FXUS63 KGID 252016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
AND MVFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...BUT IFR TYPE CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FORECAST ARE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO FELT A TEMPO GROUP WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THE
BASIC TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IFR TO PERHAPS MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 252016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
AND MVFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...BUT IFR TYPE CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FORECAST ARE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO FELT A TEMPO GROUP WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THE
BASIC TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IFR TO PERHAPS MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...GUERRERO





000
FXUS63 KGID 251729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL TALLYING OVER ONE INCH AT HASTINGS AND
AURORA WITH RAIN STILL FALLING.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO TODAY AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PROGS 24HRS AGO. WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESSER CHC FOR THUNDER
LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BEING SAID SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS WITH CONVECTION IN NC
NEB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR EARLY AFTN.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVE. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN/LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN. WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE MORE SO THAN FOG BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR BOTH.

AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
WORK EASTWARD WITH TIME AND HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR RAIN FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NUMBER 1 THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES A PATTERN
CHANGE TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER REGIME...WITH
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TRACK TO MAKE A RUN AT 80-DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE NO
"GUARANTEE" TO STAY THIS WAY...ACTUALLY HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN
WHATSOEVER IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
PERIODS. PRIOR TO THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE CURRENT
LONG TERM COMES RIGHT AWAY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONLY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING QUITE FORTUNATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS PICKED UP 1-2+ INCHES (LOCALLY 3+ INCHES) OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 7-10 DAYS...AS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE
LOOKING QUITE SLIM AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...IT TRULY IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RISING HIGHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SUNDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY IS SLATED TO BE SUNDAY (HIGHS
ONLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S)...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY IN THE
60S BEFORE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 70S BY THU-FRI...AND LIKELY A
FEW MORE 80S THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (ESPECIALLY PER THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION). OTHER THAN A GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 30S RIGHT
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND/OR FREEZE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THERE ARE PRESENTLY NONE
FORESEEN. FIRSTLY...THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS AFTERNOONS WITH EVEN "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER. EVEN IF A FEW DAYS HAPPEN TO FEATURE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (SUCH AS MONDAY) OR POTENTIALLY GUSTY BREEZES
(SUCH AS FRIDAY)...THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
SPRING GREEN-UP HAVE ALREADY RENDERED FIRE DANGER CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN 2+ WEEKS AGO.

WITH THE HIGH POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS SOME GREATER DETAIL
MAINLY IN 12-24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY OVERALL...AND AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS COULD HAVE A
DECENT COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST ZONES
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG...AND ALSO STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK/RIDGY PATTERN WILL EXIST IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN PRIMARY TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL EASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM A
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL UP OVER EASTERN CANADA.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER COVERING SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR POSSIBLE MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN (ALBEIT ONLY 30 PERCENT) CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT LEAST FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE STEADY
BREEZES...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
FOG/DRIZZLE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VERY POSSIBLY BEING DRY CWA-WIDE. FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL LINGER A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT 100
PERCENT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT FORESEEING ANY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT RUNNING WITH
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF WESTERN AREAS HANGING ONTO LOW CLOUDS
LONGER THAN EAST-NORTHEAST ZONES...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
MODEST TEMP GRADIENT HERE...AND THUS WILL AIM FROM MID-UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST 1/2...TO MAINLY LOW 60S NORTHEAST 1/2.

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS)
SUGGEST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE MAJORITY OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF RAINFALL FOCUSES 100+ MILES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FEED IN ON EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS
TIME AROUND...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MOST PLACES...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK...AND NUDGED MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
37-40 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD MOST FAVORED FOR
MID 30S. EVEN SO...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE FROST
SETUP.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: PRIMARY 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO OK/NORTH TX...WHILE A MODEST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH BOTH OF THESE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS (MAINLY PER GFS)...AND WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR
NOW DESPITE DWINDLING SUPPORT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 10-15
MPH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...AND WITH MORE
SUNSHINE VERSUS SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 61-66 DEGREES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS THAT FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD SPARK SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT 4 DAYS OUT TO "RUIN" THE GOING
DRY FORECAST. DAYTIME BREEZES NORTHERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
AND HAVE HIGHS AIMED UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LARGELY AGREEING
ON LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY
5. HIGH TEMPS AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S
AND ANY LOW 70S MOST FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS PREDICTABLY START
TO DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS...BOTH STILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT MID-
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING SOUTH BREEZES...HAVE HIGH TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 72-74 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DAY-7
UNCERTAINTY...FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY...BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
AND WARMER WITH HIGHS AIMED 77-80. AS WITH THURSDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS END UP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
AND MVFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...BUT IFR TYPE CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FORECAST ARE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO FELT A TEMPO GROUP WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THE
BASIC TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IFR TO PERHAPS MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO





000
FXUS63 KGID 251729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL TALLYING OVER ONE INCH AT HASTINGS AND
AURORA WITH RAIN STILL FALLING.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO TODAY AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PROGS 24HRS AGO. WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESSER CHC FOR THUNDER
LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BEING SAID SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS WITH CONVECTION IN NC
NEB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR EARLY AFTN.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVE. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN/LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN. WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE MORE SO THAN FOG BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR BOTH.

AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
WORK EASTWARD WITH TIME AND HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR RAIN FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NUMBER 1 THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES A PATTERN
CHANGE TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER REGIME...WITH
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TRACK TO MAKE A RUN AT 80-DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE NO
"GUARANTEE" TO STAY THIS WAY...ACTUALLY HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN
WHATSOEVER IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
PERIODS. PRIOR TO THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE CURRENT
LONG TERM COMES RIGHT AWAY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONLY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING QUITE FORTUNATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS PICKED UP 1-2+ INCHES (LOCALLY 3+ INCHES) OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 7-10 DAYS...AS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE
LOOKING QUITE SLIM AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...IT TRULY IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RISING HIGHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SUNDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY IS SLATED TO BE SUNDAY (HIGHS
ONLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S)...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY IN THE
60S BEFORE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 70S BY THU-FRI...AND LIKELY A
FEW MORE 80S THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (ESPECIALLY PER THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION). OTHER THAN A GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 30S RIGHT
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND/OR FREEZE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THERE ARE PRESENTLY NONE
FORESEEN. FIRSTLY...THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS AFTERNOONS WITH EVEN "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER. EVEN IF A FEW DAYS HAPPEN TO FEATURE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (SUCH AS MONDAY) OR POTENTIALLY GUSTY BREEZES
(SUCH AS FRIDAY)...THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
SPRING GREEN-UP HAVE ALREADY RENDERED FIRE DANGER CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN 2+ WEEKS AGO.

WITH THE HIGH POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS SOME GREATER DETAIL
MAINLY IN 12-24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY OVERALL...AND AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS COULD HAVE A
DECENT COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST ZONES
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG...AND ALSO STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK/RIDGY PATTERN WILL EXIST IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN PRIMARY TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL EASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM A
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL UP OVER EASTERN CANADA.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER COVERING SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR POSSIBLE MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN (ALBEIT ONLY 30 PERCENT) CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT LEAST FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE STEADY
BREEZES...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
FOG/DRIZZLE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VERY POSSIBLY BEING DRY CWA-WIDE. FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL LINGER A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT 100
PERCENT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT FORESEEING ANY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT RUNNING WITH
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF WESTERN AREAS HANGING ONTO LOW CLOUDS
LONGER THAN EAST-NORTHEAST ZONES...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
MODEST TEMP GRADIENT HERE...AND THUS WILL AIM FROM MID-UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST 1/2...TO MAINLY LOW 60S NORTHEAST 1/2.

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS)
SUGGEST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE MAJORITY OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF RAINFALL FOCUSES 100+ MILES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FEED IN ON EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS
TIME AROUND...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MOST PLACES...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK...AND NUDGED MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
37-40 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD MOST FAVORED FOR
MID 30S. EVEN SO...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE FROST
SETUP.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: PRIMARY 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO OK/NORTH TX...WHILE A MODEST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH BOTH OF THESE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS (MAINLY PER GFS)...AND WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR
NOW DESPITE DWINDLING SUPPORT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 10-15
MPH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...AND WITH MORE
SUNSHINE VERSUS SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 61-66 DEGREES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS THAT FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD SPARK SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT 4 DAYS OUT TO "RUIN" THE GOING
DRY FORECAST. DAYTIME BREEZES NORTHERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
AND HAVE HIGHS AIMED UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LARGELY AGREEING
ON LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY
5. HIGH TEMPS AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S
AND ANY LOW 70S MOST FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS PREDICTABLY START
TO DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS...BOTH STILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT MID-
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING SOUTH BREEZES...HAVE HIGH TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 72-74 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DAY-7
UNCERTAINTY...FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY...BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
AND WARMER WITH HIGHS AIMED 77-80. AS WITH THURSDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS END UP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING CONDITIONS BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
AND MVFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...BUT IFR TYPE CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL DEPARTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FORECAST ARE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN...SO FELT A TEMPO GROUP WAS THE BEST WAY TO
HANDLE THE VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THE
BASIC TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IFR TO PERHAPS MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 251043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL TALLYING OVER ONE INCH AT HASTINGS AND
AURORA WITH RAIN STILL FALLING.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO TODAY AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PROGS 24HRS AGO. WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESSER CHC FOR THUNDER
LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BEING SAID SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS WITH CONVECTION IN NC
NEB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR EARLY AFTN.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVE. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN/LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN. WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE MORE SO THAN FOG BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR BOTH.

AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
WORK EASTWARD WITH TIME AND HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR RAIN FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NUMBER 1 THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES A PATTERN
CHANGE TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER REGIME...WITH
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TRACK TO MAKE A RUN AT 80-DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE NO
"GUARANTEE" TO STAY THIS WAY...ACTUALLY HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN
WHATSOEVER IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
PERIODS. PRIOR TO THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE CURRENT
LONG TERM COMES RIGHT AWAY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONLY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING QUITE FORTUNATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS PICKED UP 1-2+ INCHES (LOCALLY 3+ INCHES) OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 7-10 DAYS...AS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE
LOOKING QUITE SLIM AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...IT TRULY IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RISING HIGHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SUNDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY IS SLATED TO BE SUNDAY (HIGHS
ONLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S)...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY IN THE
60S BEFORE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 70S BY THU-FRI...AND LIKELY A
FEW MORE 80S THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (ESPECIALLY PER THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION). OTHER THAN A GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 30S RIGHT
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND/OR FREEZE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THERE ARE PRESENTLY NONE
FORESEEN. FIRSTLY...THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS AFTERNOONS WITH EVEN "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER. EVEN IF A FEW DAYS HAPPEN TO FEATURE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (SUCH AS MONDAY) OR POTENTIALLY GUSTY BREEZES
(SUCH AS FRIDAY)...THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
SPRING GREEN-UP HAVE ALREADY RENDERED FIRE DANGER CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN 2+ WEEKS AGO.

WITH THE HIGH POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS SOME GREATER DETAIL
MAINLY IN 12-24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY OVERALL...AND AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS COULD HAVE A
DECENT COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST ZONES
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG...AND ALSO STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK/RIDGY PATTERN WILL EXIST IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN PRIMARY TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL EASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM A
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL UP OVER EASTERN CANADA.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER COVERING SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR POSSIBLE MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN (ALBEIT ONLY 30 PERCENT) CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT LEAST FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE STEADY
BREEZES...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
FOG/DRIZZLE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VERY POSSIBLY BEING DRY CWA-WIDE. FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL LINGER A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT 100
PERCENT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT FORESEEING ANY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT RUNNING WITH
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF WESTERN AREAS HANGING ONTO LOW CLOUDS
LONGER THAN EAST-NORTHEAST ZONES...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
MODEST TEMP GRADIENT HERE...AND THUS WILL AIM FROM MID-UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST 1/2...TO MAINLY LOW 60S NORTHEAST 1/2.

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS)
SUGGEST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE MAJORITY OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF RAINFALL FOCUSES 100+ MILES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FEED IN ON EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS
TIME AROUND...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MOST PLACES...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK...AND NUDGED MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
37-40 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD MOST FAVORED FOR
MID 30S. EVEN SO...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE FROST
SETUP.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: PRIMARY 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO OK/NORTH TX...WHILE A MODEST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH BOTH OF THESE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS (MAINLY PER GFS)...AND WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR
NOW DESPITE DWINDLING SUPPORT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 10-15
MPH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...AND WITH MORE
SUNSHINE VERSUS SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 61-66 DEGREES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS THAT FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD SPARK SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT 4 DAYS OUT TO "RUIN" THE GOING
DRY FORECAST. DAYTIME BREEZES NORTHERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
AND HAVE HIGHS AIMED UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LARGELY AGREEING
ON LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY
5. HIGH TEMPS AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S
AND ANY LOW 70S MOST FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS PREDICTABLY START
TO DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS...BOTH STILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT MID-
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING SOUTH BREEZES...HAVE HIGH TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 72-74 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DAY-7
UNCERTAINTY...FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY...BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
AND WARMER WITH HIGHS AIMED 77-80. AS WITH THURSDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS END UP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD WITH VARYING CIGS FROM LIFR TO VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY TREKS TO THE EAST. RAIN HAS ALREADY
ENDED AT KEAR AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF KGRI ANYTIME
NOW. THERE IS THE PTOENTIAL FOR REDUCD VSBYS IN BR/FG ON THE EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT IN EASTERLY
LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE BUT WILL FAVOR A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
COMPONENT OVERALL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 251043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL TALLYING OVER ONE INCH AT HASTINGS AND
AURORA WITH RAIN STILL FALLING.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO TODAY AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PROGS 24HRS AGO. WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESSER CHC FOR THUNDER
LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BEING SAID SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS WITH CONVECTION IN NC
NEB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR EARLY AFTN.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVE. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN/LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN. WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE MORE SO THAN FOG BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR BOTH.

AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
WORK EASTWARD WITH TIME AND HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR RAIN FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NUMBER 1 THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES A PATTERN
CHANGE TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER REGIME...WITH
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TRACK TO MAKE A RUN AT 80-DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE NO
"GUARANTEE" TO STAY THIS WAY...ACTUALLY HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN
WHATSOEVER IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
PERIODS. PRIOR TO THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE CURRENT
LONG TERM COMES RIGHT AWAY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONLY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING QUITE FORTUNATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS PICKED UP 1-2+ INCHES (LOCALLY 3+ INCHES) OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 7-10 DAYS...AS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE
LOOKING QUITE SLIM AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...IT TRULY IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RISING HIGHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SUNDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY IS SLATED TO BE SUNDAY (HIGHS
ONLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S)...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY IN THE
60S BEFORE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 70S BY THU-FRI...AND LIKELY A
FEW MORE 80S THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (ESPECIALLY PER THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION). OTHER THAN A GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 30S RIGHT
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND/OR FREEZE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THERE ARE PRESENTLY NONE
FORESEEN. FIRSTLY...THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS AFTERNOONS WITH EVEN "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER. EVEN IF A FEW DAYS HAPPEN TO FEATURE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (SUCH AS MONDAY) OR POTENTIALLY GUSTY BREEZES
(SUCH AS FRIDAY)...THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
SPRING GREEN-UP HAVE ALREADY RENDERED FIRE DANGER CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN 2+ WEEKS AGO.

WITH THE HIGH POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS SOME GREATER DETAIL
MAINLY IN 12-24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY OVERALL...AND AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS COULD HAVE A
DECENT COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST ZONES
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG...AND ALSO STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK/RIDGY PATTERN WILL EXIST IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN PRIMARY TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL EASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM A
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL UP OVER EASTERN CANADA.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER COVERING SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR POSSIBLE MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN (ALBEIT ONLY 30 PERCENT) CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT LEAST FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE STEADY
BREEZES...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
FOG/DRIZZLE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VERY POSSIBLY BEING DRY CWA-WIDE. FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL LINGER A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT 100
PERCENT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT FORESEEING ANY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT RUNNING WITH
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF WESTERN AREAS HANGING ONTO LOW CLOUDS
LONGER THAN EAST-NORTHEAST ZONES...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
MODEST TEMP GRADIENT HERE...AND THUS WILL AIM FROM MID-UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST 1/2...TO MAINLY LOW 60S NORTHEAST 1/2.

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS)
SUGGEST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE MAJORITY OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF RAINFALL FOCUSES 100+ MILES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FEED IN ON EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS
TIME AROUND...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MOST PLACES...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK...AND NUDGED MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
37-40 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD MOST FAVORED FOR
MID 30S. EVEN SO...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE FROST
SETUP.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: PRIMARY 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO OK/NORTH TX...WHILE A MODEST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH BOTH OF THESE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS (MAINLY PER GFS)...AND WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR
NOW DESPITE DWINDLING SUPPORT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 10-15
MPH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...AND WITH MORE
SUNSHINE VERSUS SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 61-66 DEGREES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS THAT FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD SPARK SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT 4 DAYS OUT TO "RUIN" THE GOING
DRY FORECAST. DAYTIME BREEZES NORTHERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
AND HAVE HIGHS AIMED UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LARGELY AGREEING
ON LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY
5. HIGH TEMPS AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S
AND ANY LOW 70S MOST FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS PREDICTABLY START
TO DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS...BOTH STILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT MID-
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING SOUTH BREEZES...HAVE HIGH TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 72-74 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DAY-7
UNCERTAINTY...FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY...BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
AND WARMER WITH HIGHS AIMED 77-80. AS WITH THURSDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS END UP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD WITH VARYING CIGS FROM LIFR TO VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY TREKS TO THE EAST. RAIN HAS ALREADY
ENDED AT KEAR AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF KGRI ANYTIME
NOW. THERE IS THE PTOENTIAL FOR REDUCD VSBYS IN BR/FG ON THE EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT IN EASTERLY
LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE BUT WILL FAVOR A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
COMPONENT OVERALL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 250902
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
402 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL TALLYING OVER ONE INCH AT HASTINGS AND
AURORA WITH RAIN STILL FALLING.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO TODAY AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PROGS 24HRS AGO. WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESSER CHC FOR THUNDER
LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BEING SAID SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS WITH CONVECTION IN NC
NEB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR EARLY AFTN.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVE. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN/LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN. WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE MORE SO THAN FOG BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR BOTH.

AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
WORK EASTWARD WITH TIME AND HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR RAIN FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NUMBER 1 THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES A PATTERN
CHANGE TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER REGIME...WITH
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TRACK TO MAKE A RUN AT 80-DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE NO
"GUARANTEE" TO STAY THIS WAY...ACTUALLY HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN
WHATSOEVER IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
PERIODS. PRIOR TO THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE CURRENT
LONG TERM COMES RIGHT AWAY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONLY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING QUITE FORTUNATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS PICKED UP 1-2+ INCHES (LOCALLY 3+ INCHES) OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 7-10 DAYS...AS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE
LOOKING QUITE SLIM AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...IT TRULY IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RISING HIGHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SUNDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY IS SLATED TO BE SUNDAY (HIGHS
ONLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S)...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY IN THE
60S BEFORE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 70S BY THU-FRI...AND LIKELY A
FEW MORE 80S THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (ESPECIALLY PER THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION). OTHER THAN A GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 30S RIGHT
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND/OR FREEZE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THERE ARE PRESENTLY NONE
FORESEEN. FIRSTLY...THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS AFTERNOONS WITH EVEN "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER. EVEN IF A FEW DAYS HAPPEN TO FEATURE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (SUCH AS MONDAY) OR POTENTIALLY GUSTY BREEZES
(SUCH AS FRIDAY)...THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
SPRING GREEN-UP HAVE ALREADY RENDERED FIRE DANGER CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN 2+ WEEKS AGO.

WITH THE HIGH POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS SOME GREATER DETAIL
MAINLY IN 12-24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY OVERALL...AND AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS COULD HAVE A
DECENT COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST ZONES
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG...AND ALSO STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK/RIDGY PATTERN WILL EXIST IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN PRIMARY TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL EASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM A
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL UP OVER EASTERN CANADA.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER COVERING SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR POSSIBLE MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN (ALBEIT ONLY 30 PERCENT) CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT LEAST FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE STEADY
BREEZES...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
FOG/DRIZZLE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VERY POSSIBLY BEING DRY CWA-WIDE. FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL LINGER A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT 100
PERCENT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT FORESEEING ANY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT RUNNING WITH
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF WESTERN AREAS HANGING ONTO LOW CLOUDS
LONGER THAN EAST-NORTHEAST ZONES...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
MODEST TEMP GRADIENT HERE...AND THUS WILL AIM FROM MID-UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST 1/2...TO MAINLY LOW 60S NORTHEAST 1/2.

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS)
SUGGEST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE MAJORITY OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF RAINFALL FOCUSES 100+ MILES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FEED IN ON EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS
TIME AROUND...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MOST PLACES...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK...AND NUDGED MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
37-40 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD MOST FAVORED FOR
MID 30S. EVEN SO...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE FROST
SETUP.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: PRIMARY 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO OK/NORTH TX...WHILE A MODEST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH BOTH OF THESE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS (MAINLY PER GFS)...AND WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR
NOW DESPITE DWINDLING SUPPORT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 10-15
MPH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...AND WITH MORE
SUNSHINE VERSUS SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 61-66 DEGREES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS THAT FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD SPARK SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT 4 DAYS OUT TO "RUIN" THE GOING
DRY FORECAST. DAYTIME BREEZES NORTHERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
AND HAVE HIGHS AIMED UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LARGELY AGREEING
ON LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY
5. HIGH TEMPS AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S
AND ANY LOW 70S MOST FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS PREDICTABLY START
TO DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS...BOTH STILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT MID-
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING SOUTH BREEZES...HAVE HIGH TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 72-74 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DAY-7
UNCERTAINTY...FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY...BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
AND WARMER WITH HIGHS AIMED 77-80. AS WITH THURSDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS END UP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
RAIN/STORMS THERE ARE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND CIGS RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM LIFR TO VFR. HAVE WENT WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC TAF WITH
CONVECTION PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT AND KEPT CIGS
AT IFR LEVELS. STRATUS LOOKS TO HOLD THRU THE DAY WITH CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR FOR A TIME BUT LOWERING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH DRIZZLE/FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 250902
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
402 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL TALLYING OVER ONE INCH AT HASTINGS AND
AURORA WITH RAIN STILL FALLING.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO TODAY AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PROGS 24HRS AGO. WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESSER CHC FOR THUNDER
LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BEING SAID SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS WITH CONVECTION IN NC
NEB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR EARLY AFTN.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVE. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN/LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN. WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE MORE SO THAN FOG BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR BOTH.

AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
WORK EASTWARD WITH TIME AND HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR RAIN FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NUMBER 1 THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES A PATTERN
CHANGE TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER REGIME...WITH
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TRACK TO MAKE A RUN AT 80-DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE NO
"GUARANTEE" TO STAY THIS WAY...ACTUALLY HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN
WHATSOEVER IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
PERIODS. PRIOR TO THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE CURRENT
LONG TERM COMES RIGHT AWAY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONLY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING QUITE FORTUNATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS PICKED UP 1-2+ INCHES (LOCALLY 3+ INCHES) OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 7-10 DAYS...AS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE
LOOKING QUITE SLIM AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...IT TRULY IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RISING HIGHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SUNDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY IS SLATED TO BE SUNDAY (HIGHS
ONLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S)...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY IN THE
60S BEFORE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 70S BY THU-FRI...AND LIKELY A
FEW MORE 80S THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (ESPECIALLY PER THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION). OTHER THAN A GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 30S RIGHT
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND/OR FREEZE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THERE ARE PRESENTLY NONE
FORESEEN. FIRSTLY...THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS AFTERNOONS WITH EVEN "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER. EVEN IF A FEW DAYS HAPPEN TO FEATURE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (SUCH AS MONDAY) OR POTENTIALLY GUSTY BREEZES
(SUCH AS FRIDAY)...THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
SPRING GREEN-UP HAVE ALREADY RENDERED FIRE DANGER CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN 2+ WEEKS AGO.

WITH THE HIGH POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS SOME GREATER DETAIL
MAINLY IN 12-24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY OVERALL...AND AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS COULD HAVE A
DECENT COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST ZONES
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG...AND ALSO STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK/RIDGY PATTERN WILL EXIST IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN PRIMARY TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL EASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM A
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL UP OVER EASTERN CANADA.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER COVERING SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR POSSIBLE MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN (ALBEIT ONLY 30 PERCENT) CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT LEAST FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE STEADY
BREEZES...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
FOG/DRIZZLE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VERY POSSIBLY BEING DRY CWA-WIDE. FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL LINGER A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT 100
PERCENT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT FORESEEING ANY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT RUNNING WITH
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF WESTERN AREAS HANGING ONTO LOW CLOUDS
LONGER THAN EAST-NORTHEAST ZONES...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
MODEST TEMP GRADIENT HERE...AND THUS WILL AIM FROM MID-UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST 1/2...TO MAINLY LOW 60S NORTHEAST 1/2.

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS)
SUGGEST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE MAJORITY OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF RAINFALL FOCUSES 100+ MILES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FEED IN ON EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS
TIME AROUND...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MOST PLACES...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK...AND NUDGED MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
37-40 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD MOST FAVORED FOR
MID 30S. EVEN SO...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE FROST
SETUP.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: PRIMARY 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO OK/NORTH TX...WHILE A MODEST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH BOTH OF THESE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS (MAINLY PER GFS)...AND WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR
NOW DESPITE DWINDLING SUPPORT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 10-15
MPH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...AND WITH MORE
SUNSHINE VERSUS SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 61-66 DEGREES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS THAT FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD SPARK SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT 4 DAYS OUT TO "RUIN" THE GOING
DRY FORECAST. DAYTIME BREEZES NORTHERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
AND HAVE HIGHS AIMED UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LARGELY AGREEING
ON LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY
5. HIGH TEMPS AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S
AND ANY LOW 70S MOST FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS PREDICTABLY START
TO DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS...BOTH STILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT MID-
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING SOUTH BREEZES...HAVE HIGH TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 72-74 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DAY-7
UNCERTAINTY...FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY...BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
AND WARMER WITH HIGHS AIMED 77-80. AS WITH THURSDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS END UP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
RAIN/STORMS THERE ARE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND CIGS RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM LIFR TO VFR. HAVE WENT WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC TAF WITH
CONVECTION PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT AND KEPT CIGS
AT IFR LEVELS. STRATUS LOOKS TO HOLD THRU THE DAY WITH CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR FOR A TIME BUT LOWERING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH DRIZZLE/FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 250514
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
RAIN/STORMS THERE ARE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND CIGS RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM LIFR TO VFR. HAVE WENT WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC TAF WITH
CONVECTION PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT AND KEPT CIGS
AT IFR LEVELS. STRATUS LOOKS TO HOLD THRU THE DAY WITH CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR FOR A TIME BUT LOWERING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH DRIZZLE/FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 250514
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
RAIN/STORMS THERE ARE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND CIGS RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM LIFR TO VFR. HAVE WENT WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC TAF WITH
CONVECTION PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT AND KEPT CIGS
AT IFR LEVELS. STRATUS LOOKS TO HOLD THRU THE DAY WITH CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR FOR A TIME BUT LOWERING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH DRIZZLE/FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 242323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME IFR TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 242323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME IFR TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 242323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME IFR TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 242008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER AT BOTH TERMINAL
SITES...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW LONG THE SUB-1000FT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE THEM
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD IS LOW...KEPT THE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS GOING. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE MORE N/NWRLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE SFC
LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. BACKED OFF TIMING OF VCTS
MENTION A BIT...BUT MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN S/SE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 242008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER AT BOTH TERMINAL
SITES...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW LONG THE SUB-1000FT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE THEM
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD IS LOW...KEPT THE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS GOING. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE MORE N/NWRLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE SFC
LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. BACKED OFF TIMING OF VCTS
MENTION A BIT...BUT MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN S/SE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 241746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOCUS IS ON TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY

THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DPS IN THE 50S
MIGRATING NORTH FM CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN WAA AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LIFT WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY A 40KT LLVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO
ORIENT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND EXPECT LOOK
FOR ONGOING TO CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR CWA THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT FM THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE SFC
FEATURES COMPARED TO 24HR AGO...WITH SFC LOW CENTERS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ALONG I70 IN
KS TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT NORTH NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN NEB. TIMING OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS FAVORS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS
LOOKING RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO SEE SOME BREAKS.

REGARDING AFTN TEMPS...HAVE KEPT READINGS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKER AND CLOUDS
BREAK EARLIER...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PCPN FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. PCPN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALOFT: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW THRU THU...WITH A TENDENCY
FOR CUT-OFF LOWS TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS.
THE FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY ANY STRONG QG
FORCING OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WHEN THE TAIL OF A NRN STREAM TROF MAY BREAK
OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND HEAD S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
FCST TO BE OVER THE SE USA. FOR NOW ONLY THE 12Z/00Z GEM AND THE 12Z
EC SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER FCSTRS
INDICATE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGESTED THIS AS WELL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. BY THU THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR KANSAS CITY 12Z/SAT AND WILL CONT
MOVING E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE THRU MON. A WEAK
PACIFIC-ORIGIN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU MON NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE-WED AND SLIDING E OF THE REGION THU.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /60S DAYS AND 40S NIGHTS/ THRU MON THEN A
TURNING WARMER TUE-THU. NO DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FORESEEN.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMMAHEAD/DEF ZONE MAY
LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE
DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

STRATUS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD N OF THE DEPARTING LOW...FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AND IT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED BY ON-
GOING PRECIP DOWNSTREAM SAT. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. INCREASINGLY DEEP E FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND
ADVECT THIS STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

SUN: CLOUDY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 281. SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE E
PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLEARING FROM THE E NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SUN EVE.

FOG: HAVE TO WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HRS OF SUN AND MON EITHER DUE TO STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OR
RADIATING ON THE FRINGES OF THE STRATUS.

E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WELL TO THE W SAT-MON.
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO BRING UPSLOPE PRECIP TOO FAR E.
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS W OF HWY 183 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
EVEN THIS IS DOUBTFUL. CHANCE FOR SHWRS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MON: WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS...THEN
IMPROVEMENT.

TUE-THU: BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY NICER EACH DAY. THU EASILY THE
NICEST DAY OF THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER AT BOTH TERMINAL
SITES...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW LONG THE SUB-1000FT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE THEM
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD IS LOW...KEPT THE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS GOING. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE MORE N/NWRLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE SFC
LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. BACKED OFF TIMING OF VCTS
MENTION A BIT...BUT MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN S/SE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 241746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOCUS IS ON TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY

THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DPS IN THE 50S
MIGRATING NORTH FM CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN WAA AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LIFT WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY A 40KT LLVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO
ORIENT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND EXPECT LOOK
FOR ONGOING TO CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR CWA THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT FM THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE SFC
FEATURES COMPARED TO 24HR AGO...WITH SFC LOW CENTERS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ALONG I70 IN
KS TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT NORTH NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN NEB. TIMING OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS FAVORS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS
LOOKING RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO SEE SOME BREAKS.

REGARDING AFTN TEMPS...HAVE KEPT READINGS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKER AND CLOUDS
BREAK EARLIER...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PCPN FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. PCPN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALOFT: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW THRU THU...WITH A TENDENCY
FOR CUT-OFF LOWS TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS.
THE FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY ANY STRONG QG
FORCING OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WHEN THE TAIL OF A NRN STREAM TROF MAY BREAK
OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND HEAD S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
FCST TO BE OVER THE SE USA. FOR NOW ONLY THE 12Z/00Z GEM AND THE 12Z
EC SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER FCSTRS
INDICATE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGESTED THIS AS WELL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. BY THU THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR KANSAS CITY 12Z/SAT AND WILL CONT
MOVING E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE THRU MON. A WEAK
PACIFIC-ORIGIN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU MON NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE-WED AND SLIDING E OF THE REGION THU.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /60S DAYS AND 40S NIGHTS/ THRU MON THEN A
TURNING WARMER TUE-THU. NO DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FORESEEN.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMMAHEAD/DEF ZONE MAY
LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE
DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

STRATUS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD N OF THE DEPARTING LOW...FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AND IT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED BY ON-
GOING PRECIP DOWNSTREAM SAT. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. INCREASINGLY DEEP E FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND
ADVECT THIS STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

SUN: CLOUDY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 281. SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE E
PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLEARING FROM THE E NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SUN EVE.

FOG: HAVE TO WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HRS OF SUN AND MON EITHER DUE TO STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OR
RADIATING ON THE FRINGES OF THE STRATUS.

E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WELL TO THE W SAT-MON.
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO BRING UPSLOPE PRECIP TOO FAR E.
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS W OF HWY 183 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
EVEN THIS IS DOUBTFUL. CHANCE FOR SHWRS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MON: WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS...THEN
IMPROVEMENT.

TUE-THU: BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY NICER EACH DAY. THU EASILY THE
NICEST DAY OF THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER AT BOTH TERMINAL
SITES...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW LONG THE SUB-1000FT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE THEM
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD IS LOW...KEPT THE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS GOING. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE MORE N/NWRLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE SFC
LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. BACKED OFF TIMING OF VCTS
MENTION A BIT...BUT MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN S/SE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 241024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
524 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOCUS IS ON TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY

THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DPS IN THE 50S
MIGRATING NORTH FM CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN WAA AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LIFT WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY A 40KT LLVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO
ORIENT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND EXPECT LOOK
FOR ONGOING TO CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR CWA THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT FM THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE SFC
FEATURES COMPARED TO 24HR AGO...WITH SFC LOW CENTERS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ALONG I70 IN
KS TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT NORTH NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN NEB. TIMING OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS FAVORS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS
LOOKING RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO SEE SOME BREAKS.

REGARDING AFTN TEMPS...HAVE KEPT READINGS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKER AND CLOUDS
BREAK EARLIER...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PCPN FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. PCPN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALOFT: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW THRU THU...WITH A TENDENCY
FOR CUT-OFF LOWS TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS.
THE FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY ANY STRONG QG
FORCING OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WHEN THE TAIL OF A NRN STREAM TROF MAY BREAK
OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND HEAD S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
FCST TO BE OVER THE SE USA. FOR NOW ONLY THE 12Z/00Z GEM AND THE 12Z
EC SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER FCSTRS
INDICATE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGESTED THIS AS WELL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. BY THU THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR KANSAS CITY 12Z/SAT AND WILL CONT
MOVING E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE THRU MON. A WEAK
PACIFIC-ORIGIN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU MON NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE-WED AND SLIDING E OF THE REGION THU.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /60S DAYS AND 40S NIGHTS/ THRU MON THEN A
TURNING WARMER TUE-THU. NO DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FORESEEN.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMMAHEAD/DEF ZONE MAY
LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE
DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

STRATUS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD N OF THE DEPARTING LOW...FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AND IT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED BY ON-
GOING PRECIP DOWNSTREAM SAT. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. INCREASINGLY DEEP E FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND
ADVECT THIS STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

SUN: CLOUDY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 281. SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE E
PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLEARING FROM THE E NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SUN EVE.

FOG: HAVE TO WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HRS OF SUN AND MON EITHER DUE TO STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OR
RADIATING ON THE FRINGES OF THE STRATUS.

E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WELL TO THE W SAT-MON.
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO BRING UPSLOPE PRECIP TOO FAR E.
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS W OF HWY 183 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
EVEN THIS IS DOUBTFUL. CHANCE FOR SHWRS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MON: WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS...THEN
IMPROVEMENT.

TUE-THU: BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY NICER EACH DAY. THU EASILY THE
NICEST DAY OF THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IT IS A CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO CIG HEIGHTS AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION. MORNING TRENDS SAY CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR CATEGORY AND PERHAPS IFR BUT SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE. CHCS FOR TSTMS
INCREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KEAR AND KGRI. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY BUT WILL BE VARIABLE THIS
EVENING IN THE VCNTY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN STORMS. LOOK FOR
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 241024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
524 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOCUS IS ON TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY

THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DPS IN THE 50S
MIGRATING NORTH FM CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN WAA AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LIFT WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY A 40KT LLVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO
ORIENT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND EXPECT LOOK
FOR ONGOING TO CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR CWA THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT FM THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE SFC
FEATURES COMPARED TO 24HR AGO...WITH SFC LOW CENTERS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ALONG I70 IN
KS TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT NORTH NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN NEB. TIMING OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS FAVORS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS
LOOKING RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO SEE SOME BREAKS.

REGARDING AFTN TEMPS...HAVE KEPT READINGS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKER AND CLOUDS
BREAK EARLIER...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PCPN FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. PCPN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALOFT: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW THRU THU...WITH A TENDENCY
FOR CUT-OFF LOWS TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS.
THE FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY ANY STRONG QG
FORCING OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WHEN THE TAIL OF A NRN STREAM TROF MAY BREAK
OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND HEAD S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
FCST TO BE OVER THE SE USA. FOR NOW ONLY THE 12Z/00Z GEM AND THE 12Z
EC SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER FCSTRS
INDICATE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGESTED THIS AS WELL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. BY THU THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR KANSAS CITY 12Z/SAT AND WILL CONT
MOVING E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE THRU MON. A WEAK
PACIFIC-ORIGIN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU MON NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE-WED AND SLIDING E OF THE REGION THU.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /60S DAYS AND 40S NIGHTS/ THRU MON THEN A
TURNING WARMER TUE-THU. NO DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FORESEEN.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMMAHEAD/DEF ZONE MAY
LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE
DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

STRATUS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD N OF THE DEPARTING LOW...FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AND IT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED BY ON-
GOING PRECIP DOWNSTREAM SAT. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. INCREASINGLY DEEP E FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND
ADVECT THIS STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

SUN: CLOUDY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 281. SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE E
PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLEARING FROM THE E NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SUN EVE.

FOG: HAVE TO WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HRS OF SUN AND MON EITHER DUE TO STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OR
RADIATING ON THE FRINGES OF THE STRATUS.

E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WELL TO THE W SAT-MON.
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO BRING UPSLOPE PRECIP TOO FAR E.
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS W OF HWY 183 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
EVEN THIS IS DOUBTFUL. CHANCE FOR SHWRS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MON: WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS...THEN
IMPROVEMENT.

TUE-THU: BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY NICER EACH DAY. THU EASILY THE
NICEST DAY OF THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IT IS A CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO CIG HEIGHTS AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION. MORNING TRENDS SAY CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR CATEGORY AND PERHAPS IFR BUT SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE. CHCS FOR TSTMS
INCREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KEAR AND KGRI. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY BUT WILL BE VARIABLE THIS
EVENING IN THE VCNTY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN STORMS. LOOK FOR
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 240850
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOCUS IS ON TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY

THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DPS IN THE 50S
MIGRATING NORTH FM CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN WAA AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LIFT WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY A 40KT LLVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO
ORIENT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND EXPECT LOOK
FOR ONGOING TO CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR CWA THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT FM THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE SFC
FEATURES COMPARED TO 24HR AGO...WITH SFC LOW CENTERS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ALONG I70 IN
KS TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT NORTH NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN NEB. TIMING OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS FAVORS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS
LOOKING RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO SEE SOME BREAKS.

REGARDING AFTN TEMPS...HAVE KEPT READINGS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKER AND CLOUDS
BREAK EARLIER...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PCPN FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. PCPN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALOFT: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW THRU THU...WITH A TENDENCY
FOR CUT-OFF LOWS TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS.
THE FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY ANY STRONG QG
FORCING OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WHEN THE TAIL OF A NRN STREAM TROF MAY BREAK
OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND HEAD S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
FCST TO BE OVER THE SE USA. FOR NOW ONLY THE 12Z/00Z GEM AND THE 12Z
EC SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER FCSTRS
INDICATE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGESTED THIS AS WELL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. BY THU THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR KANSAS CITY 12Z/SAT AND WILL CONT
MOVING E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE THRU MON. A WEAK
PACIFIC-ORIGIN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU MON NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE-WED AND SLIDING E OF THE REGION THU.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /60S DAYS AND 40S NIGHTS/ THRU MON THEN A
TURNING WARMER TUE-THU. NO DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FORESEEN.


SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMMAHEAD/DEF ZONE MAY
LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE
DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

STRATUS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD N OF THE DEPARTING LOW...FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AND IT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED BY ON-
GOING PRECIP DOWNSTREAM SAT. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. INCREASINGLY DEEP E FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND
ADVECT THIS STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

SUN: CLOUDY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 281. SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE E
PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLEARING FROM THE E NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SUN EVE.

FOG: HAVE TO WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HRS OF SUN AND MON EITHER DUE TO STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OR
RADIATING ON THE FRINGES OF THE STRATUS.

E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WELL TO THE W SAT-MON.
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO BRING UPSLOPE PRECIP TOO FAR E.
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS W OF HWY 183 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
EVEN THIS IS DOUBTFUL. CHANCE FOR SHWRS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MON: WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS...THEN
IMPROVEMENT.

TUE-THU: BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY NICER EACH DAY. THU EASILY THE
NICEST DAY OF THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THRU THE NIGHT
THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ATTM BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY TSTM CHCS INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 240850
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOCUS IS ON TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY

THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DPS IN THE 50S
MIGRATING NORTH FM CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN WAA AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LIFT WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY A 40KT LLVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO
ORIENT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND EXPECT LOOK
FOR ONGOING TO CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR CWA THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT FM THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE SFC
FEATURES COMPARED TO 24HR AGO...WITH SFC LOW CENTERS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ALONG I70 IN
KS TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT NORTH NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN NEB. TIMING OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS FAVORS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS
LOOKING RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO SEE SOME BREAKS.

REGARDING AFTN TEMPS...HAVE KEPT READINGS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKER AND CLOUDS
BREAK EARLIER...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PCPN FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. PCPN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALOFT: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW THRU THU...WITH A TENDENCY
FOR CUT-OFF LOWS TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS.
THE FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY ANY STRONG QG
FORCING OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WHEN THE TAIL OF A NRN STREAM TROF MAY BREAK
OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND HEAD S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
FCST TO BE OVER THE SE USA. FOR NOW ONLY THE 12Z/00Z GEM AND THE 12Z
EC SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER FCSTRS
INDICATE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGESTED THIS AS WELL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. BY THU THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR KANSAS CITY 12Z/SAT AND WILL CONT
MOVING E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE THRU MON. A WEAK
PACIFIC-ORIGIN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU MON NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE-WED AND SLIDING E OF THE REGION THU.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /60S DAYS AND 40S NIGHTS/ THRU MON THEN A
TURNING WARMER TUE-THU. NO DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FORESEEN.


SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMMAHEAD/DEF ZONE MAY
LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE
DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

STRATUS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD N OF THE DEPARTING LOW...FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AND IT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED BY ON-
GOING PRECIP DOWNSTREAM SAT. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. INCREASINGLY DEEP E FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND
ADVECT THIS STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

SUN: CLOUDY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 281. SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE E
PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLEARING FROM THE E NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SUN EVE.

FOG: HAVE TO WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HRS OF SUN AND MON EITHER DUE TO STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OR
RADIATING ON THE FRINGES OF THE STRATUS.

E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WELL TO THE W SAT-MON.
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO BRING UPSLOPE PRECIP TOO FAR E.
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS W OF HWY 183 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
EVEN THIS IS DOUBTFUL. CHANCE FOR SHWRS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MON: WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS...THEN
IMPROVEMENT.

TUE-THU: BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY NICER EACH DAY. THU EASILY THE
NICEST DAY OF THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THRU THE NIGHT
THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ATTM BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY TSTM CHCS INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 240538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NE ARE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OF WHICH A FEW COULD MIGRATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS WE START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FLOW
RETURN...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT
WITH INCREASING LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF A BIT
LONGER ON MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN.
AREA STARTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER ENERGY TOWARD DAWN
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN DEVELOPING GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...THESE STORMS GENERALLY SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MANY ISSUES
AND COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY.

LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT
TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT AREA IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE JEWELL...MITCHELL AND
OSBORNE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THAT AREA IF ANYWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
1500 J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
RAIN AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THRU THE NIGHT
THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ATTM BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY TSTM CHCS INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 240538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NE ARE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OF WHICH A FEW COULD MIGRATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS WE START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FLOW
RETURN...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT
WITH INCREASING LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF A BIT
LONGER ON MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN.
AREA STARTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER ENERGY TOWARD DAWN
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN DEVELOPING GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...THESE STORMS GENERALLY SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MANY ISSUES
AND COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY.

LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT
TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT AREA IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE JEWELL...MITCHELL AND
OSBORNE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THAT AREA IF ANYWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
1500 J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
RAIN AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THRU THE NIGHT
THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ATTM BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY TSTM CHCS INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 240009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NE ARE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OF WHICH A FEW COULD MIGRATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS WE START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FLOW
RETURN...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT
WITH INCREASING LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF A BIT
LONGER ON MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN.
AREA STARTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER ENERGY TOWARD DAWN
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN DEVELOPING GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...THESE STORMS GENERALLY SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MANY ISSUES
AND COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY.

LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT
TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT AREA IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE JEWELL...MITCHELL AND
OSBORNE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THAT AREA IF ANYWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR
AND LIKELY BECOMING EVEN IFR TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE IN THE GENERAL AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAN ALSO NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 240009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NE ARE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OF WHICH A FEW COULD MIGRATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS WE START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FLOW
RETURN...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT
WITH INCREASING LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF A BIT
LONGER ON MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN.
AREA STARTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER ENERGY TOWARD DAWN
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN DEVELOPING GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...THESE STORMS GENERALLY SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MANY ISSUES
AND COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY.

LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT
TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT AREA IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE JEWELL...MITCHELL AND
OSBORNE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THAT AREA IF ANYWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR
AND LIKELY BECOMING EVEN IFR TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE IN THE GENERAL AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAN ALSO NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 240009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NE ARE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OF WHICH A FEW COULD MIGRATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS WE START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FLOW
RETURN...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT
WITH INCREASING LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF A BIT
LONGER ON MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN.
AREA STARTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER ENERGY TOWARD DAWN
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN DEVELOPING GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...THESE STORMS GENERALLY SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MANY ISSUES
AND COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY.

LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT
TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT AREA IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE JEWELL...MITCHELL AND
OSBORNE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THAT AREA IF ANYWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR
AND LIKELY BECOMING EVEN IFR TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE IN THE GENERAL AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAN ALSO NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 240009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
709 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NE ARE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OF WHICH A FEW COULD MIGRATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS WE START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FLOW
RETURN...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT
WITH INCREASING LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF A BIT
LONGER ON MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN.
AREA STARTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER ENERGY TOWARD DAWN
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN DEVELOPING GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...THESE STORMS GENERALLY SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MANY ISSUES
AND COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY.

LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT
TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT AREA IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE JEWELL...MITCHELL AND
OSBORNE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THAT AREA IF ANYWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND INCREASING LOW
CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR
AND LIKELY BECOMING EVEN IFR TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS
AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE IN THE GENERAL AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAN ALSO NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 232057
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KGID 232057
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 232057
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KGID 232057
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 231755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE 06Z NAM CAME IN STILL TRYING TO INITIATE TSTMS OVER SW NEB
THIS MORNING. THIS AS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE CREATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 08Z HRRR DOESN`T HAVE IT AND THAT
BOLSTERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE FCST DRY.

AFTER REVIEWING MORE DATA FOR THE 12Z TAFS...INSERTED A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 231755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE 06Z NAM CAME IN STILL TRYING TO INITIATE TSTMS OVER SW NEB
THIS MORNING. THIS AS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE CREATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 08Z HRRR DOESN`T HAVE IT AND THAT
BOLSTERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE FCST DRY.

AFTER REVIEWING MORE DATA FOR THE 12Z TAFS...INSERTED A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KGID 231755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE 06Z NAM CAME IN STILL TRYING TO INITIATE TSTMS OVER SW NEB
THIS MORNING. THIS AS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE CREATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 08Z HRRR DOESN`T HAVE IT AND THAT
BOLSTERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE FCST DRY.

AFTER REVIEWING MORE DATA FOR THE 12Z TAFS...INSERTED A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 231755
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1255 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE 06Z NAM CAME IN STILL TRYING TO INITIATE TSTMS OVER SW NEB
THIS MORNING. THIS AS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE CREATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 08Z HRRR DOESN`T HAVE IT AND THAT
BOLSTERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE FCST DRY.

AFTER REVIEWING MORE DATA FOR THE 12Z TAFS...INSERTED A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KGID 231137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE 06Z NAM CAME IN STILL TRYING TO INITIATE TSTMS OVER SW NEB
THIS MORNING. THIS AS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE CREATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 08Z HRRR DOESN`T HAVE IT AND THAT
BOLSTERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE FCST DRY.

AFTER REVIEWING MORE DATA FOR THE 12Z TAFS...INSERTED A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY: VFR TO START BUT STRATUS IS EXPANDING ACROSS KS AND WILL BE
LIFTING INTO THE TERMINALS. CURRENT TIMING OF ARRIVAL IS 17Z-18Z.
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING STRATUS AND HEIGHT OF CIGS.

TONIGHT: CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR AND IFR. ALL FCST GUIDANCE IS IN
UNISON THAT CIGS LOWER TO 300-500 FT WITH MVFR VSBYS. SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS AFTER 06Z. SE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO
DUE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF CIG HEIGHT CHANGES AND MAGNITUDE OF
VSBYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 231137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE 06Z NAM CAME IN STILL TRYING TO INITIATE TSTMS OVER SW NEB
THIS MORNING. THIS AS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE CREATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 08Z HRRR DOESN`T HAVE IT AND THAT
BOLSTERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE FCST DRY.

AFTER REVIEWING MORE DATA FOR THE 12Z TAFS...INSERTED A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY: VFR TO START BUT STRATUS IS EXPANDING ACROSS KS AND WILL BE
LIFTING INTO THE TERMINALS. CURRENT TIMING OF ARRIVAL IS 17Z-18Z.
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING STRATUS AND HEIGHT OF CIGS.

TONIGHT: CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR AND IFR. ALL FCST GUIDANCE IS IN
UNISON THAT CIGS LOWER TO 300-500 FT WITH MVFR VSBYS. SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS AFTER 06Z. SE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO
DUE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF CIG HEIGHT CHANGES AND MAGNITUDE OF
VSBYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 230859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THU NIGHT
THRU FRI NIGHT AND TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LVL ALTOCU OR
SHREDS OF CIRROSTRATUS OFF IN THE DISTANCE. LIGHT SE WINDS. RADAR
WIND PROFILE INDICATES AROUND 40 KTS AT 400 FT WITH FAIRLY SMALL
ERROR. AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES IS SO CLOSE...
BUT HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON LLWS.

THU: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVING IN AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING. SE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

THU EVE: CIGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR 00Z-03Z. POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DECAY TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG EXISTS AFTER 06Z. ONE OF
THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SOURCES /GFS LAMP/ DOES NOT INDICATE
IFR YET. SO HELD OFF ON GOING MORE PESSIMISTIC. SE WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 230859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THU NIGHT
THRU FRI NIGHT AND TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LVL ALTOCU OR
SHREDS OF CIRROSTRATUS OFF IN THE DISTANCE. LIGHT SE WINDS. RADAR
WIND PROFILE INDICATES AROUND 40 KTS AT 400 FT WITH FAIRLY SMALL
ERROR. AM NOT SURE ABOUT THIS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES IS SO CLOSE...
BUT HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON LLWS.

THU: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVING IN AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING. SE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

THU EVE: CIGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR 00Z-03Z. POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DECAY TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG EXISTS AFTER 06Z. ONE OF
THE MORE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SOURCES /GFS LAMP/ DOES NOT INDICATE
IFR YET. SO HELD OFF ON GOING MORE PESSIMISTIC. SE WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





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