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000
FXUS63 KGID 301640
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1140 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

RH VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT A BIT EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WIND IS ALREADY MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE RED FLAG WARNING A
LITTLE EARLIER. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES
FURTHER WEST TO THE RED FLAG HEADLINE. HOWEVER...THE WIND SHOULD
BE DECREASING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUS FAR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL MEET THE RED FLAG WIND CRITERIA FOR THE REQUIRED
3HR PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY AND TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301640
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1140 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

RH VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT A BIT EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WIND IS ALREADY MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE RED FLAG WARNING A
LITTLE EARLIER. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES
FURTHER WEST TO THE RED FLAG HEADLINE. HOWEVER...THE WIND SHOULD
BE DECREASING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUS FAR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL MEET THE RED FLAG WIND CRITERIA FOR THE REQUIRED
3HR PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY AND TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301640
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1140 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

RH VALUES ARE FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT A BIT EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WIND IS ALREADY MEETING RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND START THE RED FLAG WARNING A
LITTLE EARLIER. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES
FURTHER WEST TO THE RED FLAG HEADLINE. HOWEVER...THE WIND SHOULD
BE DECREASING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH AND THUS FAR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL MEET THE RED FLAG WIND CRITERIA FOR THE REQUIRED
3HR PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY AND TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY AND TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY AND TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301029
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301029
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301029
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301029
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE WARM AS
WELL...AND CHOSE CONSRAW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS
EVERYBODY ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD GREAT SWAY
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME IN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND THE COLD
FRONT MAY ESSENTIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WHEN STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM
SECTOR. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER...PROBABLY MORE TOWARD A LINEAR SCENARIO. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. NIGHT TIME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ITS LOOKING A LITTLE TROUGHY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK...AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A BIG DEAL. RIDGING FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LED TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LIGHT BUT
HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WINDS AND EVEN A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA DROPS TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NORTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE
NORTH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP EARLY AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH. THE EASTERN PART WILL HAVE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL LATER
BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER.

THE TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE OUT SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300527
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300527
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300527
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300527
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AGAIN AS
EVENING APPROACHES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 300010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 300010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING/TONIGHT...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 292322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 292322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 292322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE AND AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 291949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THRU EARLY EVENING THEN NEAR
CRITICAL TOMORROW S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 291949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THRU EARLY EVENING THEN NEAR
CRITICAL TOMORROW S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 291949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THRU EARLY EVENING THEN NEAR
CRITICAL TOMORROW S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 291949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THRU EARLY EVENING THEN NEAR
CRITICAL TOMORROW S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION WAS OF THE FLOW WAS UNDERWAY. NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU TOMORROW...WITH A LOWER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN USA AND A TROF OVER THE E.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SE STATES. TOMORROW
A SFC TROF WILL MOVE THRU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRES OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT: QUIET WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS. A FEW MULTI-
LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN P/CLOUDY SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON: A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. WARMER BY 15F.
HIGHS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

USED MIX-DOWN TOOL WITH GFS AND FCST SOUNDINGS TO DROP DWPTS
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

HWO: HAVE ADDED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE SE HALF
OF THE FCST AREA...FOR A FEW HRS OF GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROF.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH A SHORT WAVE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QUASI- ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
ONWARD.

ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED OMEGA...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE
LOW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS OUR
AREA...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A
WEAKENING CAP COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND
SREF-MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID-50S. THIS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN FACT...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000J/KG WILL BE REALIZED.
IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY COULD
HELP PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS. GIVEN ALL
THIS...IT CERTAINLY IT APPEARS HAIL PRODUCTION COULD BE REALIZED
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE REALIZED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW
FAST DOES THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEAR OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED...THEN IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THUS
IMPEDING DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FACT WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS FROM THIS EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF FROM A MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE HWO...BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS.

ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH
SUGGEST PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS COULD
PROMOTE PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SUPERBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING 20- 30% POPS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARM
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE REALIZED. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS POST-FROPA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THEN PROMOTE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED. DWPTS ARE SLOW TO DROP...BUT TIF IS DOWN TO
20F...18 AT VTN AND 19 AT ANW. SO DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER. PKWND WAS 56 MPH AT ORD AT 10 AM.

AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 1017 AM ALONG AND N OF I-80. IT WILL EXPIRE
AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED. DWPTS ARE SLOW TO DROP...BUT TIF IS DOWN TO
20F...18 AT VTN AND 19 AT ANW. SO DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER. PKWND WAS 56 MPH AT ORD AT 10 AM.

AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 1017 AM ALONG AND N OF I-80. IT WILL EXPIRE
AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED. DWPTS ARE SLOW TO DROP...BUT TIF IS DOWN TO
20F...18 AT VTN AND 19 AT ANW. SO DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER. PKWND WAS 56 MPH AT ORD AT 10 AM.

AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 1017 AM ALONG AND N OF I-80. IT WILL EXPIRE
AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED. DWPTS ARE SLOW TO DROP...BUT TIF IS DOWN TO
20F...18 AT VTN AND 19 AT ANW. SO DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER. PKWND WAS 56 MPH AT ORD AT 10 AM.

AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 1017 AM ALONG AND N OF I-80. IT WILL EXPIRE
AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 291054
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AN ISSUE ANY LONGER. WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 291054
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AN ISSUE ANY LONGER. WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 291014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 291014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 291014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 291014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 290600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-
     074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 290600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-
     074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 290600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-
     074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 282328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...AT OR ABOVE 15000FT AGL...WILL BE OBSERVED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS. A WEAKER AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BE OBSERVED 09-12Z AS A
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A STRONG WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 02-12Z.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 282328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...AT OR ABOVE 15000FT AGL...WILL BE OBSERVED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS. A WEAKER AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BE OBSERVED 09-12Z AS A
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A STRONG WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 02-12Z.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 282328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...AT OR ABOVE 15000FT AGL...WILL BE OBSERVED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS. A WEAKER AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BE OBSERVED 09-12Z AS A
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A STRONG WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 02-12Z.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 282328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...AT OR ABOVE 15000FT AGL...WILL BE OBSERVED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS. A WEAKER AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BE OBSERVED 09-12Z AS A
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A STRONG WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 02-12Z.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 282009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY AND CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WITH A
FIRE WX WATCH ISSUED 1PM-6PM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 282009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY AND CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WITH A
FIRE WX WATCH ISSUED 1PM-6PM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 282009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY AND CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WITH A
FIRE WX WATCH ISSUED 1PM-6PM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 282009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY AND CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WITH A
FIRE WX WATCH ISSUED 1PM-6PM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALOFT: DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN USA RIDGE WAS UNDERWAY AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. A
PRECEDING RIDGE WAS OVERHEAD AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY NICE DAY. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT WITH ITS TAIL END SLIPPING THRU HERE TOMORROW AND NW FLOW
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA 06Z-12Z. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE. ENJOY IT! HIGHS WILL OCCUR 4-5
PM.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE HIGH-BASED SHWRS
DEVELOP OR MOVE IN WHICH END UP AS SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND. MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO 100 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST GIVEN LOW
INSTABILITY AND VERY LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE. BUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN`T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

BREEZY AND MILD. SE-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH.

SUN: RAPID CLEARING EARLY AND WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 35-45 MPH
IN CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST E OF HWY 183.
PRES GRAD DECREASES FROM THE W THRU THE DAY.

PLEASE SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CHCS FOR PCPN RETURNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TEENS AND RESULTANT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.

THE PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES ON MID WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/CLIPPER TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 40 TO 50KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING IN THE
DAKOTAS. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH WITH DPS RISING
INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF INDICATING MUCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. CURRENT TIMING
OF FROPA FAVORS THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED
...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 5C ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER...BUT TRENDING MORE
SEASONAL COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTN...AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS.
CURRENTLY ENSEMBLE SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PCPN TYPE FALLING AS LIQUID/RAIN. THIS BEING SAID...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE H85 TEMPS OF -3C TO
-5C WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PCPN FALLING AS SNOW
BUT MELTING TOWARD THE WARMER SFC/GROUND. BASED ON OPERATIONAL
RUNS CANNOT RULE OUT A R/S MIX BUT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM ENSEMBLE
THERMAL PROFILE AND DETAILS CAN BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

THE FIRST GLANCE AS EASTER WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF DEPARTING WAVE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY TRANSITIONING
BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR AND WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISING/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CARRY INTO SUNDAY WITH EITHER UPPER RIDGING (ECMWF)OR SOUTHWEST
FLOW (GFS) FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH ON THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVERALL EASTER SUNDAY SHLD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS
AN OUTSIDE CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HAVE POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS FROM HWY 281 TO THE
W...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF MINIMUM RH DROPS BELOW 20% MAINLY
ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS. DECREASING
PRES GRAD IN THE AFTERNOON IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHERE DO
WINDS/RH CRITERIA OVERLAP FOR 3 HRS? FOR NOW CURRENT FCST SUGGESTS
ALONG AND N OF NEB HWY 92.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 281743
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S
A BEAUTIFUL DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

WE ARE CONTEMPLATING ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH AND/OR A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT MORE ON THIS LATER
PENDING COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 281743
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S
A BEAUTIFUL DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

WE ARE CONTEMPLATING ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH AND/OR A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT MORE ON THIS LATER
PENDING COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 281743
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S
A BEAUTIFUL DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

WE ARE CONTEMPLATING ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH AND/OR A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT MORE ON THIS LATER
PENDING COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 281743
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S
A BEAUTIFUL DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

WE ARE CONTEMPLATING ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH AND/OR A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT MORE ON THIS LATER
PENDING COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 08Z-09Z. VFR WITH A PERIOD OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY...BUT LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH A 50-60 KT LOW-LVL WIND MAX. THEN WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
DIMINISH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW VFR SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR CLEARING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING
FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 4K FT. BECOMING WINDY WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 281044
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE THIS EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. WIND COULD ALSO GUST JUST AHEAD AND DIRECTLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 281044
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE THIS EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. WIND COULD ALSO GUST JUST AHEAD AND DIRECTLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280943
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 280943
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280943
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280943
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN ISSUES REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOLLOWING
TONIGHT. BUT...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TOUGH AND THERE COULD BE A
TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. WE
COULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 80 IN OUR SOUTHWEST...AND STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE EAST/NORTHEASTERN CWA. TOUGH CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT WENT WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT COULD ALSO BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE CWA
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ARRIVES. GENERALLY WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH BETTER LIFT THERE. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER...AND ALL NUMERICAL MODELS POINT
TO THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE MORNING THE WINDS AT 850MB ARE 50 KTS BUT DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH AT
LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AROUND 20 MPH. WILL KEEP THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER ON
MONDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWS WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER STILL.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD
CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 280558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 280558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 280558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 272352
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
652 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
BOTH TAF SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START
FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 12KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
08KTS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 272352
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
652 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
BOTH TAF SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START
FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 12KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
08KTS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 272101
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 272101
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND TURNING
THE WIND TO NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
THUS WE WILL BE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE NICEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE SHOULD BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT TIMING IS SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT AND IS A CRITICAL
COMPONENT WHEN IT COMES TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY LOW AS AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEND MOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SEEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING OUR AREA TO BE MORE UNSTABLE BENEATH
DEWPOINTS THAT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY COOL AND
HIGHS COULD STILL BE IN THE 60S...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF THE MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 272043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 272043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 272043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 272043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIESS DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE.
A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE
LEE-SIDE TROF.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY. PRECIP HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
ON RADAR...BLOSSOMING AND DECAYING WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION.
OVERALL BELIEVE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL HANDLE IT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A BURST OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. WE SAW IT EARLIER.

ORD DID BRIEFLY DROP TO 3SM IN -SN AT 2 PM. GRI WAS DOWN TO 4SM
AROUND 230 PM.

TONIGHT: THIS BAND OF WAA-DRIVEN CLOUDINESS WILL SHIFT E OF THE
REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE. CU FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATE
SHWRS WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD SE INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEY WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PLAYED IT AS
SPRINKLES. DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W.

LOW TEMPS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST JUST WITH
A BIAS CORRECTION APPLIED.

SAT: PROBABLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LINGER TO START THE DAY FROM
HWY 281 E...BUT OVERALL A NICE IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING NEARLY 30F. GREAT FOR BEING OUTSIDE!


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




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