Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGID 241803
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
103 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE/SHORT-TERM...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A rather substantial fcst update has been published thru 6 pm.

Environmental assessment is still on-going. But what we know is
that early morning tstms are departing to the E with rapid
clearing over all but the Srn fringe of the fcst area. Sfc
analysis shows a diffuse pattern with svrl mesoscale features...
the most prominent of which are the low over SW KS and the outflow
boundaries over Srn KS. There appears to be an old remnant portion
of the cool front from SW-NE across the Sandhills and then back
into SW Neb into NE CO.

Confidence in what transpires today is low. Model depictions of
what might develop vary wildly and are of little use. For what
it`s worth...

Model fcsts of dwpts may be svrl degs too high compared to
sfc/upr air obs...and this will impact instability fcsts. The
models appear to be eroding the outflow boundaries and rapidly
advecting dwpts of 65-70F into the fcst area.

Another complication is that the morning tstms were at the Nrn
edge of the cap which was at +9C at 700 mb. This isotherm/cap is
fcst by the RAP to lift N to hwy 6 by 4 pm and I-80 by 7 pm. This
WAA can be see in the 00Z/12Z RAOBs at DDC.

For now...our current expectation is that a few tstms will
develop this afternoon/eve...with the best chance over S-cntrl
Neb. With temps near 80F and dwpts in the low-mid 60s and mid-lvl
lapse rates 7-8 C/km...MLCAPE will be 1500-2500 J/kg. Deep layer
shear will be sufficient (35-40 kts) for well-organized tstms.

Storm mode is also a bit uncertain...but it looks like primarily
multicell...but supercells cannot be ruled out either.

One final negative factor against tstm development...a lack of
forcing aloft. That could also keep tstm coverage rather minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

To make a long story short, the upper level longwave mean trough in
the western United States will persist through the long term as a
stationary or nearly stationary boundary hangs around or near our
area. Abundant moisture will be available as most people can tell by
the dewpoints in the 60s recently, so this means several days of
potentially inclement and severe weather, along with near normal to
a bit above normal temperatures. Highs will generally be in the 70s
and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Significant Weather: Sct IFR +TSRA. Potential for MVFR or IFR
stratus 09Z-15Z Wed.

This afternoon: VFR. Just a few altocu around 12K ft initially...
but sct cu should develop around 5K ft. A few IFR tstms could
develop nearby after 21Z. Winds are not behaving as model guidance
is expecting as the environment has been perturbed by tstm
activity. Winds could be anywhere between SSW-SSE 8-15 kts.
Confidence: medium

Tonight: VFR except in pockets of IFR +TSRA. There is some
potential for a bit of MVFR/IFR fog/stratus after 09Z. Winds
outside of tstms will be SE 5-10 kts. Confidence: Medium

Wed thru 18Z: Possibly MVFR/IFR fog/stratus to start. Any tstm
activity nearby should end early. Otherwise...VFR. Winds probably
SE 5-10 kts away from any tstm activity. Confidence: Low

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Halblaub
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Halblaub





000
FXUS63 KGID 241604
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1104 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A rather substantial fcst update has been published thru 6 pm.

Environmental assessment is still on-going. But what is know is
that early morning tstms are departing to the E with rapid
clearing over all but the Srn fringe of the fcst area. Sfc
analysis shows a diffuse pattern with svrl mesoscale features...
the most prominent of which are the low over SW KS and the outflow
boundaries over Srn KS. There appears to be an old remnant portion
of the cool front from SW-NE across the Sandhills and then back
into SW Neb into NE CO.

Confidence in what transpires today is low. Model depictions of
what might develop vary wildly and are of little use. For what
it`s worth...

Model fcsts of dwpts may be svrl degs too high compared to
sfc/upr air obs...and this will impact instability fcsts. The
models appear to be eroding the outflow boundaries and rapidly
advecting dwpts of 65-70F into the fcst area.

Another complication is that the morning tstms were at the Nrn
edge of the cap which was at +9C at 700 mb. This isotherm/cap is
fcst by the RAP to lift N to hwy 6 by 4 pm and I-80 by 7 pm. This
WAA can be see in the 00Z/12Z RAOBs at DDC.

For now...our current expectation is that a few tstms will
develop this afternoon/eve...with the best chance over S-cntrl
Neb. With temps near 80F and dwpts in the low-mid 60s and mid-lvl
lapse rates 7-8 C/km...MLCAPE will be 1500-2500 J/kg. Deep layer
shear will be sufficient (35-40 kts) for well-organized tstms.

Storm mode is also a bit uncertain...but it looks like primarily
multicell...but supercells cannot be ruled out either.

One final negative factor against tstm development...a lack of
forcing aloft. That could also keep tstm coverage rather minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next 24 hours is going to be a rather tough forecast due to the
ongoing convection to the south and other finer mesoscale features
that have yet to be realized. Main focus over the next 24 hours is
going to be development of thunderstorms and the severe potential
associated with these storms. The low-end severe threat and
flooding will be ongoing this morning across north central Kansas.

In the upper levels, we remain under southwesterly flow aloft, with
our main feature being a low-amplitude shortwave embedded in this
mean flow ejecting out over the Central Plains later today. The
timing of this shortwave does seem favorable for severe weather to
develop later this afternoon. At the surface, a low should develop
over eastern Colorado/western portions of the Central Plains later
today. There is a little uncertainty with the placement of this low
and could ultimately be a big game changer for our severe potential.
However, with the boundary in place later today and ample
instability ranging around 4000 J/kg of most unstable across a
majority of the forecast area. Bulk shear (0-6 km) values are around
40 knots. Low level shear is not all that impressive until later
tonight after 00Z, but with the boundary around during the afternoon
we will have that in place to make up for the lack of low level
environmental shear. Supercells will be possible within these
environmental conditions. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible along with isolated tornadoes, especially in the vicinity
of the boundary. The exact location of this severe potential is in
question until the finer mesoscale features become more clear across
the forecast area. Thunderstorms will likely continue overnight and
develop into a more complex MCS of storms and grow larger in overall
coverage. The MCS is more likely develop across northern parts of
the forecast area tonight, or in other words parts of
central/northern Nebraska. Thunderstorms appear to be on the trend
to develop early this afternoon, but confidence remains low for the
exact timing for the start of this event. Current thinking is the
boundary will line up in a north-south orientation through the heart
of the forecast area (along/near highway 281) and storms could start
to fire along this boundary early in the afternoon. Lots of
uncertainty but this is the best first guess until the boundary
lines up later today and that upper level shortwave ejects out into
the plains. Some of the higher resolution models like the NCEP 4 km
WRF-NMM has essentially nothing across our forecast area today,
which is a little disheartening given the 30-50 PoPs in the forecast
at this time indicating thunderstorms today/tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

To make a long story short, the upper level longwave mean trough in
the western United States will persist through the long term as a
stationary or nearly stationary boundary hangs around or near our
area. Abundant moisture will be available as most people can tell by
the dewpoints in the 60s recently, so this means several days of
potentially inclement and severe weather, along with near normal to
a bit above normal temperatures. Highs will generally be in the 70s
and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The terminals will be in (or near) MVFR conditions through at
least mid morning before ceilings increase slightly to VFR.
Conditions will likely fluctuate today with ongoing convection
making this a rather difficult forecast. The ongoing convection
now should work over and delay thunderstorm activity later today.
Thunderstorms are anticipated later but the timing is in question.
Look for updates and follow the forecast closely as this is an
evolving forecast as the finer mesoscale details become clearer
over the next several hours. Confidence is higher for
thunderstorms tonight after 00Z as a cluster of storms will likely
push through the forecast area.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Halblaub
SHORT TERM...Guerrero
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Guerrero





000
FXUS63 KGID 241128
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next 24 hours is going to be a rather tough forecast due to the
ongoing convection to the south and other finer mesoscale features
that have yet to be realized. Main focus over the next 24 hours is
going to be development of thunderstorms and the severe potential
associated with these storms. The low-end severe threat and
flooding will be ongoing this morning across north central Kansas.

In the upper levels, we remain under southwesterly flow aloft, with
our main feature being a low-amplitude shortwave embedded in this
mean flow ejecting out over the Central Plains later today. The
timing of this shortwave does seem favorable for severe weather to
develop later this afternoon. At the surface, a low should develop
over eastern Colorado/western portions of the Central Plains later
today. There is a little uncertainty with the placement of this low
and could ultimately be a big game changer for our severe potential.
However, with the boundary in place later today and ample
instability ranging around 4000 J/kg of most unstable across a
majority of the forecast area. Bulk shear (0-6 km) values are around
40 knots. Low level shear is not all that impressive until later
tonight after 00Z, but with the boundary around during the afternoon
we will have that in place to make up for the lack of low level
environmental shear. Supercells will be possible within these
environmental conditions. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible along with isolated tornadoes, especially in the vicinity
of the boundary. The exact location of this severe potential is in
question until the finer mesoscale features become more clear across
the forecast area. Thunderstorms will likely continue overnight and
develop into a more complex MCS of storms and grow larger in overall
coverage. The MCS is more likely develop across northern parts of
the forecast area tonight, or in other words parts of
central/northern Nebraska. Thunderstorms appear to be on the trend
to develop early this afternoon, but confidence remains low for the
exact timing for the start of this event. Current thinking is the
boundary will line up in a north-south orientation through the heart
of the forecast area (along/near highway 281) and storms could start
to fire along this boundary early in the afternoon. Lots of
uncertainty but this is the best first guess until the boundary
lines up later today and that upper level shortwave ejects out into
the plains. Some of the higher resolution models like the NCEP 4 km
WRF-NMM has essentially nothing across our forecast area today,
which is a little disheartening given the 30-50 PoPs in the forecast
at this time indicating thunderstorms today/tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

To make a long story short, the upper level longwave mean trough in
the western United States will persist through the long term as a
stationary or nearly stationary boundary hangs around or near our
area. Abundant moisture will be available as most people can tell by
the dewpoints in the 60s recently, so this means several days of
potentially inclement and severe weather, along with near normal to
a bit above normal temperatures. Highs will generally be in the 70s
and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The terminals will be in (or near) MVFR conditions through at
least mid morning before ceilings increase slightly to VFR.
Conditions will likely fluctuate today with ongoing convection
making this a rather difficult forecast. The ongoing convection
now should work over and delay thunderstorm activity later today.
Thunderstorms are anticipated later but the timing is in question.
Look for updates and follow the forecast closely as this is an
evolving forecast as the finer mesoscale details become clearer
over the next several hours. Confidence is higher for
thunderstorms tonight after 00Z as a cluster of storms will likely
push through the forecast area.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Guerrero
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Guerrero





000
FXUS63 KGID 240943
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
443 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next 24 hours is going to be a rather tough forecast due to the
ongoing convection to the south and other finer mesoscale features
that have yet to be realized. Main focus over the next 24 hours is
going to be development of thunderstorms and the severe potential
associated with these storms. The low-end severe threat and
flooding will be ongoing this morning across north central Kansas.

In the upper levels, we remain under southwesterly flow aloft, with
our main feature being a low-amplitude shortwave embedded in this
mean flow ejecting out over the Central Plains later today. The
timing of this shortwave does seem favorable for severe weather to
develop later this afternoon. At the surface, a low should develop
over eastern Colorado/western portions of the Central Plains later
today. There is a little uncertainty with the placement of this low
and could ultimately be a big game changer for our severe potential.
However, with the boundary in place later today and ample
instability ranging around 4000 J/kg of most unstable across a
majority of the forecast area. Bulk shear (0-6 km) values are around
40 knots. Low level shear is not all that impressive until later
tonight after 00Z, but with the boundary around during the afternoon
we will have that in place to make up for the lack of low level
environmental shear. Supercells will be possible within these
environmental conditions. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible along with isolated tornadoes, especially in the vicinity
of the boundary. The exact location of this severe potential is in
question until the finer mesoscale features become more clear across
the forecast area. Thunderstorms will likely continue overnight and
develop into a more complex MCS of storms and grow larger in overall
coverage. The MCS is more likely develop across northern parts of
the forecast area tonight, or in other words parts of
central/northern Nebraska. Thunderstorms appear to be on the trend
to develop early this afternoon, but confidence remains low for the
exact timing for the start of this event. Current thinking is the
boundary will line up in a north-south orientation through the heart
of the forecast area (along/near highway 281) and storms could start
to fire along this boundary early in the afternoon. Lots of
uncertainty but this is the best first guess until the boundary
lines up later today and that upper level shortwave ejects out into
the plains. Some of the higher resolution models like the NCEP 4 km
WRF-NMM has essentially nothing across our forecast area today,
which is a little disheartening given the 30-50 PoPs in the forecast
at this time indicating thunderstorms today/tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

This is a very difficult forecast. A lot of uncertainty will be in
place due to ongoing convection and finer mesoscale features that
have yet to be realized. That being said, KEAR will likely be
in between MVFR and IFR, and KGRI could very well be in the same
boat due to fog formation if wind speeds stay light. This is
going to be monitored over the next couple hours and an amendment
may be sent out to showcase the fog potential later this morning.
It will depend on the convection ongoing right now and how calm
the wind speeds will get. Low level moisture is there for fog but
the wind speeds may not stay calm enough. If skies remain clear
with light winds, fog will likely develop later this morning.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing later this afternoon but a
lot of uncertainty remains with those chances as well. It will
depend on where the boundary sets up later today. That being said,
there is a good chance for thunderstorms and severe weather later
today. Timing and coverage will be better depicted is subsequent
TAFs, but thunderstorms will likely begin to form later this
afternoon and create MVFR to possibly IFR conditions at the
terminals for at least a couple hours later today.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Guerrero
AVIATION...Guerrero





000
FXUS63 KGID 240540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite and observations show a band of lower clouds across a
small part of the area this afternoon, with some cirrus for the
east. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated north to
south through the forecast area. A few showers and some isolated
thunderstorms are developing.

The NAM, HRRR and a couple of the WRF models indicate there could
be a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon. On the other hand, the GFS and RAP are more robust with
the precipitation across the area. The best chance will be in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Can not rule out the
thunderstorms, but the clouds in the east could slow things down a
little this afternoon. Into the evening hours, an upper level wave
moves into the area and models have thunderstorms developing along
the front. By this evening, the front is expected to drift to the
southeast and the best chance of precipitation during the evening
and overnight will be across north central Kansas and far southern
Nebraska. Some of the thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday
morning, but there could be a little bit of a break during the
late morning hours. Another upper level wave moves into the area
on Tuesday. There is still a few differences in the models. The
GFS and the NAM both bring in some precipitation mid day into the
afternoon hours, but the WRF models are more dry during the
afternoon. Have kept some small POPs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night there is a developing surface low and cold front
across western Nebraska and Kansas and another upper level wave
moves into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon on the high plains and should move into the area
during the evening and continue into the overnight hours. This
looks to be the best chance for some thunderstorms. A few of the
thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours Wednesday, but
with another weak wave that moves into the area there is still a
chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Models continue to show a couple of weak upper level waves that
move through the area Wednesday night. There are spotty areas of
QPF across the area and there is a chance for some thunderstorms.
By Thursday afternoon the ECMWF and GFS both have a cold front
moving into the area with the upper low approaching. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front during the
afternoon. The upper low moves into the area Thursday night and
there is another good chance for thunderstorms.

The models have a few differences for Friday and beyond. The GFS
is faster to move the upper low out of the area than the ECMWF,
but there continue to be several upper level waves that move
through the area. Each wave has the potential to bring some
thunderstorms, but it will depend on the timing of the waves and
what happens to the surface front that tends to linger, getting
stronger and weaker at different times. Have kept chances for
thunderstorms in through the period, but it will not be raining
all the time. It is just hard to define just when there will be
something going on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

This is a very difficult forecast. A lot of uncertainty will be in
place due to ongoing convection and finer mesoscale features that
have yet to be realized. That being said, KEAR will likely be
in between MVFR and IFR, and KGRI could very well be in the same
boat due to fog formation if wind speeds stay light. This is
going to be monitored over the next couple hours and an amendment
may be sent out to showcase the fog potential later this morning.
It will depend on the convection ongoing right now and how calm
the wind speeds will get. Low level moisture is there for fog but
the wind speeds may not stay calm enough. If skies remain clear
with light winds, fog will likely develop later this morning.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing later this afternoon but a
lot of uncertainty remains with those chances as well. It will
depend on where the boundary sets up later today. That being said,
there is a good chance for thunderstorms and severe weather later
today. Timing and coverage will be better depicted is subsequent
TAFs, but thunderstorms will likely begin to form later this
afternoon and create MVFR to possibly IFR conditions at the
terminals for at least a couple hours later today.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Guerrero





000
FXUS63 KGID 232338
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite and observations show a band of lower clouds across a
small part of the area this afternoon, with some cirrus for the
east. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated north to
south through the forecast area. A few showers and some isolated
thunderstorms are developing.

The NAM, HRRR and a couple of the WRF models indicate there could
be a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon. On the other hand, the GFS and RAP are more robust with
the precipitation across the area. The best chance will be in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Can not rule out the
thunderstorms, but the clouds in the east could slow things down a
little this afternoon. Into the evening hours, an upper level wave
moves into the area and models have thunderstorms developing along
the front. By this evening, the front is expected to drift to the
southeast and the best chance of precipitation during the evening
and overnight will be across north central Kansas and far southern
Nebraska. Some of the thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday
morning, but there could be a little bit of a break during the
late morning hours. Another upper level wave moves into the area
on Tuesday. There is still a few differences in the models. The
GFS and the NAM both bring in some precipitation mid day into the
afternoon hours, but the WRF models are more dry during the
afternoon. Have kept some small POPs.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night there is a developing surface low and cold front
across western Nebraska and Kansas and another upper level wave
moves into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon on the high plains and should move into the area
during the evening and continue into the overnight hours. This
looks to be the best chance for some thunderstorms. A few of the
thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours Wednesday, but
with another weak wave that moves into the area there is still a
chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Models continue to show a couple of weak upper level waves that
move through the area Wednesday night. There are spotty areas of
QPF across the area and there is a chance for some thunderstorms.
By Thursday afternoon the ECMWF and GFS both have a cold front
moving into the area with the upper low approaching. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front during the
afternoon. The upper low moves into the area Thursday night and
there is another good chance for thunderstorms.

The models have a few differences for Friday and beyond. The GFS
is faster to move the upper low out of the area than the ECMWF,
but there continue to be several upper level waves that move
through the area. Each wave has the potential to bring some
thunderstorms, but it will depend on the timing of the waves and
what happens to the surface front that tends to linger, getting
stronger and weaker at different times. Have kept chances for
thunderstorms in through the period, but it will not be raining
all the time. It is just hard to define just when there will be
something going on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Significant Weather: Tstm threat will end in the next 2 hrs. Then
tstm threat redevelops Tue afternoon.

Tonight: VFR except within sct tstms with IFR VSBYs will end
early...then decreasing clouds. Tstms could develop over Nrn KS
and this is expected to send a dense cirrostratus OVC over the
terminals after 06Z. Light SE winds 10 kts or less. There is a low
probability for patchy MVFR fog...but currently expect clouds
should mitigate the threat. Confidence: Medium

Tue: VFR CIGs thru the morning...probably around 20K ft. By 17Z
expect sct Cu to develop around 5K ft and eventually become bkn as
isolated pockets of IFR vsbys develop in +TSRA. SE winds gradually
increase to around 12 kts in the afternoon. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Halblaub





000
FXUS63 KGID 232020
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
320 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Satellite and observations show a band of lower clouds across a
small part of the area this afternoon, with some cirrus for the
east. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front situated north to
south through the forecast area. A few showers and some isolated
thunderstorms are developing.

The NAM, HRRR and a couple of the WRF models indicate there could be
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon. On the other hand, the GFS and RAP are more robust with
the precipitation across the area. The best chance will be in the
eastern half of the forecast area. Can not rule out the
thunderstorms, but the clouds in the east could slow things down a
little this afternoon. Into the evening hours, an upper level wave
moves into the area and models have thunderstorms developing along
the front. By this evening, the front is expected to drift to the
southeast and the best chance of precipitation during the evening
and overnight will be across north central Kansas and far southern
Nebraska. Some of the thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning,
but there could be a little bit of a break during the late morning
hours. Another upper level wave moves into the area on Tuesday.
There is still a few differences in the models. The GFS and the NAM
both bring in some precipitation mid day into the afternoon hours,
but the WRF models are more dry during the afternoon. Have kept some
small POPs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night there is a developing surface low and cold front
across western Nebraska and Kansas and another upper level wave
moves into the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon on the high plains and should move into the area
during the evening and continue into the overnight hours. This looks
to be the best chance for some thunderstorms. A few of the
thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours Wednesday, but with
another weak wave that moves into the area there is still a chance
for thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Models continue to show a couple of weak upper level waves that move
through the area Wednesday night. There are spotty areas of QPF
across the area and there is a chance for some thunderstorms. By
Thursday afternoon the ECMWF and GFS both have a cold front moving
into the area with the upper low approaching. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the front during the
afternoon. The upper low moves into the area Thursday night and
there is another good chance for thunderstorms.

The models have a few differences for Friday and beyond. The GFS is
faster to move the upper low out of the area than the ECMWF, but
there continue to be several upper level waves that move through the
area. Each wave has the potential to bring some thunderstorms, but
it will depend on the timing of the waves and what happens to the
surface front that tends to linger, getting stronger and weaker at
different times. Have kept chances for thunderstorms in through the
period, but it will not be raining all the time. It is just hard to
define just when there will be something going on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Low clouds have moved into the KGRI terminal this afternoon and
should linger for a few hours. The main questions will be if and
when there will be shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon
and into the overnight hours. Have tried to hit the best times for
activity, but there are still a few questions on exactly when and
where there will be development.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 230730
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
230 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Aloft: Moderately amplified flow was over the CONUS. Today began
with a ridge over the Plains...but it has departed to the E. A
large trof was over the Wrn USA and a shortwave trof was lifting
out of its base and was over UT. This trof will cont NE
tonight...crossing CO/WY into the Dakotas by daybreak Mon. The
mean Wrn trof will retrograde a bit...but low amplitude SW flow
will remain over the Plains.

Surface: A Pac cool front extended from the Wrn Dakotas thru the
Neb Panhandle then SW thru CO/UT/NV. A dryline intersected the
front over Ern CO. The cool front will cont E across the Nrn
Plains tonight with its more Srn portion moving slower to the E.
Present indications are that the front will enter the fcst area
around dawn Mon. It is expected to stall over the fcst area...with
alterations possible due to tstm outflows.

Now: lots of cloud cover remains over the fcst area and despite
this...temps have managed to climb well into the 70s and low 80s.
Dwpts are the highest they`ve been so far this warm season...in
the low-mid 60s.

Am not expecting much additional tstm activity to affect the fcst
area this afternoon. Isolated tstms will develop over Wrn Neb and
KS close to the dryline/cool front. Can`t rule out one or two of
these storms affecting areas W of hwy 183.

Please see MD #677. A watch appears likely just W of the fcst area
and probably against our Wrn border.

Tstm coverage will be more significant well N and W of the fcst
area this afternoon/eve...closer to the vort max. This activity
should grow upscale into one or more MCSs from SD into the Neb
Sandhills this eve. One of these MCSs could move in after
midnight. Strength/ severity is uncertain. Time of day argues
against severe and it should be weakening/cold pool-dominant...but
it can`t be ruled out with MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg.

Mon: Tstms may be over/exiting part of the fcst area during the
morning. What happens thereafter is highly uncertain. We could be
socked in with stratus in the wake of the storms.

WV imagery shows a subtle shortwave trof approaching Baja CA.
This trof will be ejecting across the Cntrl/Srn Plains during peak
heating. With the presence of the cool front/dryline and possibly
outflow boundaries...expect sct tstms to erupt mainly E and S of
the fcst area. But a few could occur S and E of the Tri-Cities
"if" morning clouds clear out and heating occurs.

Trying to determine the environment is tough given that cloud
coverage and temps are unknown in the wake of whatever occurs in
the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Fcst uncertainty is above normal. Tstm potential hinges on small-
scale but important features that have low predictability. This
includes the tstms themselves as they can and will determine where
future tstm potential exists. Remnant cloud cover in the wake of
tstms also complicates temp fcsts as well as environmental
assessment.

Aloft: SW flow will remain over the Plains as the longwave trof
remains locked over the Wrn USA. Subtle/low amplitude embedded
shortwave trofs will provide dynamic forcing...enhancing tstm
potential from time to time. As of now...the most identifiable trof
is fcst to eject out of the Wrn trof on Fri.

Surface: The weak front that stalls from SW-NE across the Cntrl
Plains into the Great Lakes will become wavy and modulated by
multiple rounds of MCS activity. Little else will change.

Really can`t add much in the way of details because the fcst so
heavily hinges on mesoscale features that largely have yet to be
determined. All we can say at this point is there is a risk of
tstms every day. Some days will produce more than others.

Certainly the environment will be favorable for svr tstms. The
supply of Gulf moisture will be uninterrupted and deep layer shear
will be favorable for organized tstms and tstm clusters. All forms
of svr wx will be possible.

This week should be warmer than last week.

Flooding: this could be a very wet week in parts of the fcst area.
Some isolated spots could see svrl inches of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Ceilings are a big dice roll as a line of storms rolls in from the
west overnight. Numerical models have had a rough time trying to
figure out ceilings for the past several days, and tonight is no
exception. Needless to say, there is low confidence in the ceiling
forecast, but moderate confidence in the timing of the squall line
as it moves through. Severe weather is not anticipating as the
general trend is for weakening convection.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Heinlein





000
FXUS63 KGID 222325
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Aloft: Moderately amplified flow was over the CONUS. Today began
with a ridge over the Plains...but it has departed to the E. A
large trof was over the Wrn USA and a shortwave trof was lifting
out of its base and was over UT. This trof will cont NE
tonight...crossing CO/WY into the Dakotas by daybreak Mon. The
mean Wrn trof will retrograde a bit...but low amplitude SW flow
will remain over the Plains.

Surface: A Pac cool front extended from the Wrn Dakotas thru the
Neb Panhandle then SW thru CO/UT/NV. A dryline intersected the
front over Ern CO. The cool front will cont E across the Nrn
Plains tonight with its more Srn portion moving slower to the E.
Present indications are that the front will enter the fcst area
around dawn Mon. It is expected to stall over the fcst area...with
alterations possible due to tstm outflows.

Now: lots of cloud cover remains over the fcst area and despite
this...temps have managed to climb well into the 70s and low 80s.
Dwpts are the highest they`ve been so far this warm season...in
the low-mid 60s.

Am not expecting much additional tstm activity to affect the fcst
area this afternoon. Isolated tstms will develop over Wrn Neb and
KS close to the dryline/cool front. Can`t rule out one or two of
these storms affecting areas W of hwy 183.

Please see MD #677. A watch appears likely just W of the fcst area
and probably against our Wrn border.

Tstm coverage will be more significant well N and W of the fcst
area this afternoon/eve...closer to the vort max. This activity
should grow upscale into one or more MCSs from SD into the Neb
Sandhills this eve. One of these MCSs could move in after
midnight. Strength/ severity is uncertain. Time of day argues
against severe and it should be weakening/cold pool-dominant...but
it can`t be ruled out with MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg.

Mon: Tstms may be over/exiting part of the fcst area during the
morning. What happens thereafter is highly uncertain. We could be
socked in with stratus in the wake of the storms.

WV imagery shows a subtle shortwave trof approaching Baja CA.
This trof will be ejecting across the Cntrl/Srn Plains during peak
heating. With the presence of the cool front/dryline and possibly
outflow boundaries...expect sct tstms to erupt mainly E and S of
the fcst area. But a few could occur S and E of the Tri-Cities
"if" morning clouds clear out and heating occurs.

Trying to determine the environment is tough given that cloud
coverage and temps are unknown in the wake of whatever occurs in
the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Fcst uncertainty is above normal. Tstm potential hinges on small-
scale but important features that have low predictability. This
includes the tstms themselves as they can and will determine where
future tstm potential exists. Remnant cloud cover in the wake of
tstms also complicates temp fcsts as well as environmental
assessment.

Aloft: SW flow will remain over the Plains as the longwave trof
remains locked over the Wrn USA. Subtle/low amplitude embedded
shortwave trofs will provide dynamic forcing...enhancing tstm
potential from time to time. As of now...the most identifiable trof
is fcst to eject out of the Wrn trof on Fri.

Surface: The weak front that stalls from SW-NE across the Cntrl
Plains into the Great Lakes will become wavy and modulated by
multiple rounds of MCS activity. Little else will change.

Really can`t add much in the way of details because the fcst so
heavily hinges on mesoscale features that largely have yet to be
determined. All we can say at this point is there is a risk of
tstms every day. Some days will produce more than others.

Certainly the environment will be favorable for svr tstms. The
supply of Gulf moisture will be uninterrupted and deep layer shear
will be favorable for organized tstms and tstm clusters. All forms
of svr wx will be possible.

This week should be warmer than last week.

Flooding: this could be a very wet week in parts of the fcst area.
Some isolated spots could see svrl inches of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

There are multiple concerns regarding the aviation forecast.
Clouds have scattered...but are still basically broken...but they
remain VFR. Expect cloud coverage to increase and ceilings to drop
to MVFR or IFR during the overnight hours as convection moves in
from the west. Expect ceilings to rise during the morning Monday. Think
the best chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact the
terminals will be during the overnight hours as the front moves
through the region. The strong southerly winds will decrease and
become westerly as the front moves through.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Billings Wright





000
FXUS63 KGID 221104
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The main issue for the short term forecast is chance for
thunderstorms/severe weather tonight.

The omega blocking pattern persists today with a western trough and
a the ridge over the central United States as a jet streak stretches
from the central Rockies into the northern Plains will stream nearly
parallel with a surface cold front, with a warm front/dry line
extending south along the front range of the Rockies from Wyoming to
New Mexico.

As was long expected, thunderstorms should develop along the front
range surface boundary by afternoon as an impulse is ejected
northeast out of the base of the western trough. Convection should
develop along and help propagate east the cold front/dryline, but
slowly, due to the nearly parallel upper level flow. There will be
more than enough instability and bulk shear to produce severe
weather at initialization. There will be a period during the late
afternoon and early evening that tornadoes will be possible, but
this wanes quickly later in the evening.

We currently have some tornadoes mentioned in the HWO, which I will
include since SPC keeps our western CWA in the 5% area, but this is
way more likely to the west of the CWA, and I would not be surprised
at all if we had no tornadic activity.

As storms migrate east, they will move into lower deep layer shear
as instability decreases. Storms will probably fill in to form a
quasi-linear mesoscale convective complex that will not have a
strong push to the east, considering the parallel flow to the
surface front. This will have good potential for some heavy
rainfall. The storms will eventually get far enough east to tap into
the expected strong low-level jet and could actually strengthen a
bit. I think our biggest threat for any severe weather will be wind
as the squall line moves through, and only a minimal threat for
large hail and tornadoes for the most part.

I went pretty close to superblend for temperatures, but I tweaked
the POPs down to mostly slight chance for today, and increased POPs
significantly late tonight as ensembles indicate.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term is an active pattern littered with thunderstorm
chances everyday. The most notable day for this forecast period is
definitely Tuesday due to the high confidence for severe weather.
Confidence beyond Tuesday dwindles for severe weather. That being
said, Tuesday will be the focus of this discussion.

In the upper levels we will be under southwesterly aloft with no
dominant feature to really speak off besides small embedded impulses
ejecting out over the plains. At the surface, a low will develop
across western parts of the Central Plains and nose its way
into/near the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. The placement of the
surface low and the associated boundaries will be the biggest factor
in severe weather development and coverage across our forecast area.
Current thinking is it will nose up across western/southwestern
portions of the forecast area. There is significant instability
around in the afternoon across the forecast area where the NAM and
GFS indicate most unstable values around 5000 J/Kg. Bulk shear (0-6
km) values are around 45-50 knots. The ingredients for strong
rotating updrafts are going to be in place. Low level (0-1 km)
helicity values are not overly impressive, but with the surface low
so close and the chance for boundaries (warm front) over the
forecast area, a tornado threat cannot be ruled out at this time.
However, the main threats will likely be significant hail (2+
inches) and damaging wind speeds. Depending on where the surface low
and associated boundaries end up, the threat for tornadoes could be
more of an issue. There is a good chance there will be at least a
few supercell thunderstorms around the forecast area on Tuesday, and
severe weather will likely be a threat. This is a day to watch as we
move forward because the forecast can change, but the ingredients
are currently there which warrant the mention for severe weather at
this time with high confidence.

Normal temperatures for this time of year range around the mid to
upper 70s, while lows range around the low to mid 50s. Overall,
temperatures are going to be near or above normal everyday in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

One concern is low-level wind shear for the first couple of hours.
Also, some storms are possible overnight, but ceilings are low
confidence. Overall a low-confidence forecast for ceilings as
models have been poor for the past several days. Lower ceilings
should nudge east this morning, but as in the past, could have
some trouble getting farther east.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Guerrero
AVIATION...Heinlein





000
FXUS63 KGID 220600
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
100 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

The primary forecast concern will center around the chance of
precipitation, both light drizzle at times tonight into Sunday
morning as well as the possibility of severe thunderstorms by
Sunday evening.

Tonight...Elevated instability will be on the increase through
the overnight hours and can not rule out an isolated elevated
thunderstorm...especially across southwestern zones.
However...most forecast models are in pretty good agreement that
thunderstorms this evening will form across west central Kansas
and should pass to the south of our forecast area later tonight as
they weaken. We are seeing the forecast models generating light
QPF tonight into Sunday morning in what is most likely a light
drizzle or a few sprinkles out of the stratus deck. Again not
expecting much and most areas will likely see little or no
precipitation through Sunday afternoon.

Sunday evening into Sunday night...This is where things get more
interesting. The 12Z and 18Z NAM and GFS along with several WRF
models try to initiate scattered thunderstorms in the warm sector
near the dry line across southwestern Nebraska into western Kansas
between 6 to 8 pm. MLCAPE values by late afternoon from Lincoln
county down to Frontier county could be up into the 3500-4000 J/KG
range. Deep layer 0-6 km shear is not overly impressive at 30-40
kts...but there is increasing low level shear (0-1km) values of
20-30 kts by 00z and 30-35 kts by 03z as the low level jet
strengthens. The combination of instability and shear is more than
sufficient for severe thunderstorms should forcing be sufficient
for initial storm development. Have added isolated tornado
wording to our HWO due to the strong low level wind shear in that
23-03z (6-10 pm) time frame. Although storm may form just west of
our forecast area, they will likely quickly move into our forecast
area. There is still at least some uncertainty as to if there
will be enough forcing in the warm sector with the upper trough
still so far to the west for thunderstorms to actually develop
Sunday evening, but if they do develop keep an eye out for severe
weather.

Confidence in the potential widespread nature of thunderstorms
tracking across the region late Sunday night has actually
decreased some with more models showing what would be a more hit
and miss scattered nocturnal thunderstorm event for our forecast
area being largely supported by the strengthening low level jet.
Will continue to keep Sunday night POPs at 60-70 percent.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Monday...The front appears to be slowing down, which would put
eastern areas more under the gun for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. The GFS began showing this yesterday but
now the 12z and 18z NAM have slowed down and are also showing
decent thunderstorm potential from the Tri-Cities eastward. There
is little if any cap so expect thunderstorms could develop rather
early on Monday. The CAPE is very high Monday afternoon with
MLCAPE values of 3000-3500 J/KG and 0-6 km shear values around 40
kts. Therefore, am also going to start calling for the possibility
of severe thunderstorms on Monday especially across the eastern
half of our forecast area.

Tuesday...We continue to be under the influence of southwesterly
flow aloft with high instability and at least modest deep layer
shear. Forcing may be a bit more lacking, but there is still
certainly the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms by
afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through Saturday...Am not going to talk much about this
period at this time. There is just too much uncertainty with the
specifics. Overall we will continue to have a large upper trough
across the western CONUS with short waves tracking through the
broader upper trough across the plains. Consequently, there will
be at least a threat of thunderstorms pretty much any day through
the period and would not be surprised to see some additional
severe thunderstorms on a few of these days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The biggest concern will be low-level wind shear late tonight into
early Sunday morning. It looks like the strongest flow will be
just high enough off the ground to perhaps preclude mention of
LLWS, but it is close enough warrant an amendment as new models
come in. Confidence with ceilings is low as models have been
horrible with dealing with stratus.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Heinlein





000
FXUS63 KGID 212342
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

The primary forecast concern will center around the chance of
precipitation, both light drizzle at times tonight into Sunday
morning as well as the possibility of severe thunderstorms by
Sunday evening.

Tonight...Elevated instability will be on the increase through
the overnight hours and can not rule out an isolated elevated
thunderstorm...especially across southwestern zones.
However...most forecast models are in pretty good agreement that
thunderstorms this evening will form across west central Kansas
and should pass to the south of our forecast area later tonight as
they weaken. We are seeing the forecast models generating light
QPF tonight into Sunday morning in what is most likely a light
drizzle or a few sprinkles out of the stratus deck. Again not
expecting much and most areas will likely see little or no
precipitation through Sunday afternoon.

Sunday evening into Sunday night...This is where things get more
interesting. The 12Z and 18Z NAM and GFS along with several WRF
models try to initiate scattered thunderstorms in the warm sector
near the dry line across southwestern Nebraska into western Kansas
between 6 to 8 pm. MLCAPE values by late afternoon from Lincoln
county down to Frontier county could be up into the 3500-4000 J/KG
range. Deep layer 0-6 km shear is not overly impressive at 30-40
kts...but there is increasing low level shear (0-1km) values of
20-30 kts by 00z and 30-35 kts by 03z as the low level jet
strengthens. The combination of instability and shear is more than
sufficient for severe thunderstorms should forcing be sufficient
for initial storm development. Have added isolated tornado
wording to our HWO due to the strong low level wind shear in that
23-03z (6-10 pm) time frame. Although storm may form just west of
our forecast area, they will likely quickly move into our forecast
area. There is still at least some uncertainty as to if there
will be enough forcing in the warm sector with the upper trough
still so far to the west for thunderstorms to actually develop
Sunday evening, but if they do develop keep an eye out for severe
weather.

Confidence in the potential widespread nature of thunderstorms
tracking across the region late Sunday night has actually
decreased some with more models showing what would be a more hit
and miss scattered nocturnal thunderstorm event for our forecast
area being largely supported by the strengthening low level jet.
Will continue to keep Sunday night POPs at 60-70 percent.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Monday...The front appears to be slowing down, which would put
eastern areas more under the gun for thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening. The GFS began showing this yesterday but
now the 12z and 18z NAM have slowed down and are also showing
decent thunderstorm potential from the Tri-Cities eastward. There
is little if any cap so expect thunderstorms could develop rather
early on Monday. The CAPE is very high Monday afternoon with
MLCAPE values of 3000-3500 J/KG and 0-6 km shear values around 40
kts. Therefore, am also going to start calling for the possibility
of severe thunderstorms on Monday especially across the eastern
half of our forecast area.

Tuesday...We continue to be under the influence of southwesterly
flow aloft with high instability and at least modest deep layer
shear. Forcing may be a bit more lacking, but there is still
certainly the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms by
afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through Saturday...Am not going to talk much about this
period at this time. There is just too much uncertainty with the
specifics. Overall we will continue to have a large upper trough
across the western CONUS with short waves tracking through the
broader upper trough across the plains. Consequently, there will
be at least a threat of thunderstorms pretty much any day through
the period and would not be surprised to see some additional
severe thunderstorms on a few of these days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Low stratus will dominate the forecast with a chance for showers
and isolated thunderstorms overnight. Patchy drizzle is possible
throughout the evening and early overnight hours. Because
confidence in precipitation impacting the terminals is low, have
kept the mention out of the TAF for the most part. Will amend as
necessary.  Winds are generally out of the southeast and gusty.
Expect the winds to stay breezy overnight and be stronger than
today during the day Sunday. Ceiling heights are expected to
deteriorate throughout the evening and overnight hours before
rising during the day Sunday. Ceilings will be MVFR and possibly
drop to IFR overnight.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Billings Wright





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities