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000
FXUS63 KGID 161801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SANDHILLS SW TO NEAR MCCOOK /ANW-LBF-
MCK-CBK/ AT 11Z.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE LULL APPROACHING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. FCST DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO RUNNING ABOVE REALITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLUME OF
DWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE SHORT- TERM HIRES MODELS
HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS. SO OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LESS
CLOUD COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING THROUGH
KGRI AND THE WIND DIRECTION WAS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY. THE
WIND WILL QUICKLY PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO
OVER 30 KTS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AFTER SUNSET AND
THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH. A LOW
STRATO CUMULUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECT CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS PRIOR
TO SUNSET. THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER DARK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GO TONIGHT IS LOW. CAN
NOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THAT MVFR AND VFR
CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 161137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SANDHILLS SW TO NEAR MCCOOK /ANW-LBF-
MCK-CBK/ AT 11Z.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE LULL APPROACHING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. FCST DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO RUNNING ABOVE REALITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLUME OF
DWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE SHORT- TERM HIRES MODELS
HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS. SO OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LEES
SKY COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: LLWS CONTINUES THRU 14Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 15Z-16Z. VFR
MULTI- LAYERED MID- HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT 16Z-18Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM
WINDS ARE VARIABLE. AFTER FROPA...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST BKN-OVC CIRRUS WHICH
WILL DESCEND FROM 25K TO 20K FT AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO 18K. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 161137 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SANDHILLS SW TO NEAR MCCOOK /ANW-LBF-
MCK-CBK/ AT 11Z.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE LULL APPROACHING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. FCST DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO RUNNING ABOVE REALITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLUME OF
DWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE SHORT- TERM HIRES MODELS
HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS. SO OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LESS
CLOUD COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: LLWS CONTINUES THRU 14Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 15Z-16Z. VFR
MULTI- LAYERED MID- HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT 16Z-18Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM
WINDS ARE VARIABLE. AFTER FROPA...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST BKN-OVC CIRRUS WHICH
WILL DESCEND FROM 25K TO 20K FT AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO 18K. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 160938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LEES
SKY COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT.
BRISK S WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT. FROPA WILL OCCUR
14Z-15Z WITH AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT TO W. THEN NW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 32 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST CIRRUS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 160854
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
354 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.


TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THIS SECTION UPDATES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT.
BRISK S WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT. FROPA WILL OCCUR
14Z-15Z WITH AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT TO W. THEN NW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 32 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST CIRRUS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 160532
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SKIES ARE VARIABLE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT A
LARGER AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE PANHANDLE
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. N-CNTRL KS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

FCST HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COOL COMPARED TO REALITY. SO
CURRENT OBS WERE BLENDED WITH HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THRU
SUNRISE. THIS RESULT IN RAISING LOW TEMPS ABOUT 3F ACROSS THE FCST
AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WIND ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY HAS DIED DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN VERY LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THROUGH
IDAHO.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN EASTERN MT
AND NOSING SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/HIGH PLAINS AREA.  IN A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME...STEADY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. WINDS SWITCH NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE SO DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S N/S FOR HIGHS.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE AFTN AND DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SPRINKLES AS THE COLDER
AIR STARTS MOVING IN...BUT IT MAY END UP MORE AS VIRGA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MIDWEEK...THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CENTRAL CONUS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI...WHILE THE SECOND IS STARTING TO EMERGE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR DAYS...BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE BRUNT OF IT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB BUT CLOSED AT
TIMES 700MB...MODELS SHOW THE TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS...AND MOVING WELL EAST OF THE REGION THURS
NIGHT. THIS CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TREND LED TO SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ANOTHER BUMP DOWN IN POPS AND KEEPING THEM
CONFINED TO NC KS...AND MORE NOTABLY...AN INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEED FOR
THIS UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...AND INCREASED TEMPS FROM ROUGHLY MID 40S TO
NEAR 50/LOWER 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES. KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS
POINT...AS THE 12Z GFS IS FLYING SOLO WITH ANY QPF ACTUALLY MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN
CONUS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESULTING FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...ANOTHER NOTABLE INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL PRESENT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...BUT KEEP IN MIND THERES STILL PLENTY OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO THINGS CAN CHANGE. AT 12Z
SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF NOTABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OVER SLIDING THROUGH
CO...THE OTHER SET UP OVER SRN CA/DESERT SW.  WHILE AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT TO BE GOING ON TO START THE DAY...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIME PASSES AND THAT ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THE AREA KEEPS THE
THUNDER MENTION GOING...THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE
AIDED BY A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOWN TO BE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA. POPS
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT/INTO SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SLIDING
EAST...ALSO HELPED BY A S/SWRLY LLJ INCREASING TO ARND 40KTS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IS
A PERIOD THAT BEARS WATCHING.

BY THE TIME MONDAY MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
DUE TO THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONTO THE
SRN CA COAST...VS THE OPEN WAVE OF THE ECMWF/GEM.  DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT.
BRISK S WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT. FROPA WILL OCCUR
14Z-15Z WITH AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT TO W. THEN NW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 32 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST CIRRUS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 160359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1059 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SKIES ARE VARIABLE FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT A
LARGER AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE PANHANDLE
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. N-CNTRL KS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

FCST HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COOL COMPARED TO REALITY. SO
CURRENT OBS WERE BLENDED WITH HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THRU
SUNRISE. THIS RESULT IN RAISING LOW TEMPS ABOUT 3F ACROSS THE FCST
AREA.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WIND ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY HAS DIED DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN VERY LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THROUGH
IDAHO.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN EASTERN MT
AND NOSING SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/HIGH PLAINS AREA.  IN A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME...STEADY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. WINDS SWITCH NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE SO DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S N/S FOR HIGHS.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE AFTN AND DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SPRINKLES AS THE COLDER
AIR STARTS MOVING IN...BUT IT MAY END UP MORE AS VIRGA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MIDWEEK...THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CENTRAL CONUS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI...WHILE THE SECOND IS STARTING TO EMERGE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR DAYS...BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE BRUNT OF IT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB BUT CLOSED AT
TIMES 700MB...MODELS SHOW THE TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS...AND MOVING WELL EAST OF THE REGION THURS
NIGHT. THIS CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TREND LED TO SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ANOTHER BUMP DOWN IN POPS AND KEEPING THEM
CONFINED TO NC KS...AND MORE NOTABLY...AN INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEED FOR
THIS UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...AND INCREASED TEMPS FROM ROUGHLY MID 40S TO
NEAR 50/LOWER 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES. KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS
POINT...AS THE 12Z GFS IS FLYING SOLO WITH ANY QPF ACTUALLY MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN
CONUS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESULTING FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...ANOTHER NOTABLE INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL PRESENT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...BUT KEEP IN MIND THERES STILL PLENTY OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO THINGS CAN CHANGE. AT 12Z
SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF NOTABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OVER SLIDING THROUGH
CO...THE OTHER SET UP OVER SRN CA/DESERT SW.  WHILE AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT TO BE GOING ON TO START THE DAY...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIME PASSES AND THAT ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THE AREA KEEPS THE
THUNDER MENTION GOING...THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE
AIDED BY A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOWN TO BE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA. POPS
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT/INTO SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SLIDING
EAST...ALSO HELPED BY A S/SWRLY LLJ INCREASING TO ARND 40KTS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IS
A PERIOD THAT BEARS WATCHING.

BY THE TIME MONDAY MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
DUE TO THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONTO THE
SRN CA COAST...VS THE OPEN WAVE OF THE ECMWF/GEM.  DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE PRIMARY THINGS TO WATCH FOR WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN
EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET STREAM DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT A 50KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
JET AT AROUND 1000 FT AGL RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAY BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE
SFC WIND WILL GRADUALLY GO WESTERLY AND EVEN NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATER IN THE MORNING AS A COOL FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. THE WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS EXPECTED IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
EASTERN MT AND NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTH WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.  AN
AXIS OF DPS IN THE TEENS WERE ORIENTED FROM ROUGHLY KHLC TO KHYS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HEBRON.  AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
EASTWARD AND TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT.  WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT
OF RISING TEMPS/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE AS IS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY
FIRE WEATHER...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 160120 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
820 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WIND ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY HAS DIED DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN VERY LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THROUGH
IDAHO.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN EASTERN MT
AND NOSING SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/HIGH PLAINS AREA.  IN A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME...STEADY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. WINDS SWITCH NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE SO DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S N/S FOR HIGHS.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE AFTN AND DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SPRINKLES AS THE COLDER
AIR STARTS MOVING IN...BUT IT MAY END UP MORE AS VIRGA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MIDWEEK...THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CENTRAL CONUS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI...WHILE THE SECOND IS STARTING TO EMERGE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR DAYS...BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE BRUNT OF IT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB BUT CLOSED AT
TIMES 700MB...MODELS SHOW THE TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS...AND MOVING WELL EAST OF THE REGION THURS
NIGHT. THIS CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TREND LED TO SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ANOTHER BUMP DOWN IN POPS AND KEEPING THEM
CONFINED TO NC KS...AND MORE NOTABLY...AN INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEED FOR
THIS UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...AND INCREASED TEMPS FROM ROUGHLY MID 40S TO
NEAR 50/LOWER 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES. KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS
POINT...AS THE 12Z GFS IS FLYING SOLO WITH ANY QPF ACTUALLY MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN
CONUS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESULTING FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...ANOTHER NOTABLE INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL PRESENT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...BUT KEEP IN MIND THERES STILL PLENTY OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO THINGS CAN CHANGE. AT 12Z
SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF NOTABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OVER SLIDING THROUGH
CO...THE OTHER SET UP OVER SRN CA/DESERT SW.  WHILE AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT TO BE GOING ON TO START THE DAY...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIME PASSES AND THAT ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THE AREA KEEPS THE
THUNDER MENTION GOING...THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE
AIDED BY A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOWN TO BE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA. POPS
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT/INTO SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SLIDING
EAST...ALSO HELPED BY A S/SWRLY LLJ INCREASING TO ARND 40KTS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IS
A PERIOD THAT BEARS WATCHING.

BY THE TIME MONDAY MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
DUE TO THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONTO THE
SRN CA COAST...VS THE OPEN WAVE OF THE ECMWF/GEM.  DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE PRIMARY THINGS TO WATCH FOR WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN
EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET STREAM DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT A 50KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
JET AT AROUND 1000 FT AGL RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAY BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE
SFC WIND WILL GRADUALLY GO WESTERLY AND EVEN NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATER IN THE MORNING AS A COOL FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. THE WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS EXPECTED IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
EASTERN MT AND NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTH WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.  AN
AXIS OF DPS IN THE TEENS WERE ORIENTED FROM ROUGHLY KHLC TO KHYS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HEBRON.  AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
EASTWARD AND TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT.  WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT
OF RISING TEMPS/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE AS IS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY
FIRE WEATHER...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 160017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
717 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THROUGH
IDAHO.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN EASTERN MT
AND NOSING SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/HIGH PLAINS AREA.  IN A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME...STEADY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. WINDS SWITCH NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE SO DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S N/S FOR HIGHS.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE AFTN AND DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SPRINKLES AS THE COLDER
AIR STARTS MOVING IN...BUT IT MAY END UP MORE AS VIRGA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MIDWEEK...THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CENTRAL CONUS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI...WHILE THE SECOND IS STARTING TO EMERGE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR DAYS...BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE BRUNT OF IT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB BUT CLOSED AT
TIMES 700MB...MODELS SHOW THE TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS...AND MOVING WELL EAST OF THE REGION THURS
NIGHT. THIS CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TREND LED TO SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ANOTHER BUMP DOWN IN POPS AND KEEPING THEM
CONFINED TO NC KS...AND MORE NOTABLY...AN INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEED FOR
THIS UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...AND INCREASED TEMPS FROM ROUGHLY MID 40S TO
NEAR 50/LOWER 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES. KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS
POINT...AS THE 12Z GFS IS FLYING SOLO WITH ANY QPF ACTUALLY MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN
CONUS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESULTING FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...ANOTHER NOTABLE INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL PRESENT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...BUT KEEP IN MIND THERES STILL PLENTY OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO THINGS CAN CHANGE. AT 12Z
SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF NOTABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OVER SLIDING THROUGH
CO...THE OTHER SET UP OVER SRN CA/DESERT SW.  WHILE AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT TO BE GOING ON TO START THE DAY...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIME PASSES AND THAT ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THE AREA KEEPS THE
THUNDER MENTION GOING...THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE
AIDED BY A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOWN TO BE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA. POPS
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT/INTO SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SLIDING
EAST...ALSO HELPED BY A S/SWRLY LLJ INCREASING TO ARND 40KTS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IS
A PERIOD THAT BEARS WATCHING.

BY THE TIME MONDAY MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
DUE TO THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONTO THE
SRN CA COAST...VS THE OPEN WAVE OF THE ECMWF/GEM.  DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE PRIMARY THINGS TO WATCH FOR WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AN
EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET STREAM DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT A 50KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
JET AT AROUND 1000 FT AGL RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAY BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE
SFC WIND WILL GRADUALLY GO WESTERLY AND EVEN NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATER IN THE MORNING AS A COOL FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. THE WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS EXPECTED IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
EASTERN MT AND NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTH WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.  AN
AXIS OF DPS IN THE TEENS WERE ORIENTED FROM ROUGHLY KHLC TO KHYS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HEBRON.  AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
EASTWARD AND TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT.  WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT
OF RISING TEMPS/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE AS IS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ074>077-
     082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY
FIRE WEATHER...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 152016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY AND UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THROUGH
IDAHO.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN EASTERN MT
AND NOSING SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/HIGH PLAINS AREA.  IN A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SOME...STEADY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. WINDS SWITCH NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER DAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE SO DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S N/S FOR HIGHS.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE AFTN AND DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SPRINKLES AS THE COLDER
AIR STARTS MOVING IN...BUT IT MAY END UP MORE AS VIRGA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MIDWEEK...THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD HAS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CENTRAL CONUS
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WI...WHILE THE SECOND IS STARTING TO EMERGE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR DAYS...BUT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE BRUNT OF IT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB BUT CLOSED AT
TIMES 700MB...MODELS SHOW THE TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS...AND MOVING WELL EAST OF THE REGION THURS
NIGHT. THIS CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TREND LED TO SOME CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY ANOTHER BUMP DOWN IN POPS AND KEEPING THEM
CONFINED TO NC KS...AND MORE NOTABLY...AN INCREASE IN HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY. MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEED FOR
THIS UPWARD ADJUSTMENT...AND INCREASED TEMPS FROM ROUGHLY MID 40S TO
NEAR 50/LOWER 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA...COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES. KEPT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS
POINT...AS THE 12Z GFS IS FLYING SOLO WITH ANY QPF ACTUALLY MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN
CONUS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
RESULTING FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...ANOTHER NOTABLE INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL PRESENT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA...BUT KEEP IN MIND THERES STILL PLENTY OF
TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO THINGS CAN CHANGE. AT 12Z
SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF NOTABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OVER SLIDING THROUGH
CO...THE OTHER SET UP OVER SRN CA/DESERT SW.  WHILE AT THIS POINT
NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT TO BE GOING ON TO START THE DAY...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIME PASSES AND THAT ROCKIES
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THE AREA KEEPS THE
THUNDER MENTION GOING...THOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE
AIDED BY A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOWN TO BE MOVING SE INTO THE CWA. POPS
CONTINUE SAT NIGHT/INTO SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SLIDING
EAST...ALSO HELPED BY A S/SWRLY LLJ INCREASING TO ARND 40KTS. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IS
A PERIOD THAT BEARS WATCHING.

BY THE TIME MONDAY MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH DIFFERENCES
EXIST WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE RIGHT ON THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
DUE TO THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONTO THE
SRN CA COAST...VS THE OPEN WAVE OF THE ECMWF/GEM.  DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STEADY INTO
THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE TERMINAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO FOR TONIGHT...LLWS IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY AS EXPECTED IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN
EASTERN MT AND NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTH WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.  AN
AXIS OF DPS IN THE TEENS WERE ORIENTED FROM ROUGHLY KHLC TO KHYS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HEBRON.  AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
EASTWARD AND TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT.  WITH SEVERAL HOURS LEFT
OF RISING TEMPS/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE AS IS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ074>077-
     082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
FIRE WEATHER...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 151715
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...A VERY NICE WARM-UP TODAY BUT WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY WILDFIRES IF THEY DEVELOP...

ALOFT: THE UPPER TROF AXIS WAS NOW E OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENT
NW FLOW HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WV
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NW.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PRECEDING IT WILL MOVE THRU TODAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROF AND PV STREAMER WILL ADVANCE INTO NEB/SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE PV
STREAMER.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WEAK
FRONT BISECTED NEB FROM NW-SE. A CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER ALBERTA.
THIS LOW WILL TRANSLATE SE AND ESSENTIALLY REFORM OVER WRN SD LATE
TODAY...AND CROSS SD TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND
YESTERDAY`S CHILLY AIR MASS TO RETREAT TO THE N AND E. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BISECTING THE REGION BY DAWN WED.

THE FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING /RFW/
FOR N-CNTRL KS AND EXTENDED N INTO S-CNTRL NEB UP TO MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG HWY 6.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: ESSENTIALLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH VERY LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR 730-830 AM...JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL.

TODAY: A SUNNY START. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AS THE WARM
SECTOR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. BECOMING WINDY BY MIDDAY. S WINDS
WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL. CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDDAY WITH OTHER LAYERS OF MID CLOUDS MOVING IN. CEILINGS WILL
DESCEND TO AROUND 15K FT. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY THOUGH.

THE LAST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A SW-NE SWATH OF SNOW STILL
ON THE GROUND FROM HOLDREGE TO GREELEY. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND IT HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FIRE WX: DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY VERY LOW /15-20F/ IN THE DRIEST
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS /DWPTS/ UPSTREAM OVER KS/OK/TX/CO/NM WERE
ALSO IN THE MID-UPR TEENS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DEN/AMA/ABQ ALL
SUGGEST DWPTS WILL DROP FURTHER TO BETWEEN 8-14F. NOT SURE IF THAT
WILL TRANSLATE 100% TO HERE...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS IT WILL BE
VERY DRY TO THE S TODAY. I STRUGGLED WITH TODAY`S DWPTS MOST OF
THE SHIFT. THEY TYPICALLY ARE NOT MODELED WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS REQUIRES SOME FCSTR
INTUITION AND SOME GUTS. I USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 05Z/06Z/07Z
RAP DEWPOINTS WHICH IS A BOLD FCST. THIS MAINTAINS AND/OR TAKES
OUR DWPTS INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM LIES IN THE SWATH OF SNOWPACK. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO DEAL WITH IT AND THE
SUBLIMATION/MELTING THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. WITH STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION...THEY ARE PROBABLY TOO MOIST OVER THE SNOWPACK AND IT
IS HARD TO KNOW HOW THE AMBIENT DRY AIR WILL BE MODIFIED BY THIS
MICROCLIMATE...N OF THE SNOWPACK. I KEPT DWPTS AROUND 20F OVER THE
NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE
FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

THE FUEL STATUS MAY HAVE CHANGED OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH THE RECENT
MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIP SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST STATUS NOT
IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE...BELIEVE IT WAS PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE RFW
OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.

TONIGHT: A WINDY MILD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL
SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE 40S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU DRY.
BECAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...THE RFW EXPIRATION WAS PUSHED
BACK TO 8 PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG
TERM FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCURRIES BY AND SWINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

THE MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...AND HENCE...PLACING MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND WE ARE NOT FAR FROM THE
PROJECTED NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. IT WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH DISTANCE TO PLACE OUR CWA IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
HOWEVER...SINCE TRENDS ARE FIRM AT THIS TIME...LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED
UP A TAD AS WELL...AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE 40S. LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE
FORECAST OF THE FARTHER SOUTHERN TREK...AND EVERYBODY REMAINS UNDER
AN INCH IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS FORECAST BY SOME NUMERICAL
MODELS TO TREK OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO MEAN MUCH BUSINESS.

A WARM-UP IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS A A QUICK-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY. AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
QUICKLY BY. BY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.

ANY RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING LARGER
RIDGE...AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO MONDAY...AND PROBABLY BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STEADY INTO
THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE TERMINAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO FOR TONIGHT...LLWS IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/HIGH LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ074>077-
     082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 151118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...A VERY NICE WARM-UP TODAY BUT WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY WILDFIRES IF THEY DEVELOP...

ALOFT: THE UPPER TROF AXIS WAS NOW E OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENT
NW FLOW HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WV
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NW.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PRECEDING IT WILL MOVE THRU TODAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROF AND PV STREAMER WILL ADVANCE INTO NEB/SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE PV
STREAMER.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WEAK
FRONT BISECTED NEB FROM NW-SE. A CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER ALBERTA.
THIS LOW WILL TRANSLATE SE AND ESSENTIALLY REFORM OVER WRN SD LATE
TODAY...AND CROSS SD TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND
YESTERDAY`S CHILLY AIR MASS TO RETREAT TO THE N AND E. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BISECTING THE REGION BY DAWN WED.

THE FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING /RFW/
FOR N-CNTRL KS AND EXTENDED N INTO S-CNTRL NEB UP TO MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG HWY 6.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: ESSENTIALLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH VERY LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR 730-830 AM...JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL.

TODAY: A SUNNY START. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AS THE WARM
SECTOR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. BECOMING WINDY BY MIDDAY. S WINDS
WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL. CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDDAY WITH OTHER LAYERS OF MID CLOUDS MOVING IN. CEILINGS WILL
DESCEND TO AROUND 15K FT. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY THOUGH.

THE LAST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A SW-NE SWATH OF SNOW STILL
ON THE GROUND FROM HOLDREGE TO GREELEY. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND IT HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FIRE WX: DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY VERY LOW /15-20F/ IN THE DRIEST
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS /DWPTS/ UPSTREAM OVER KS/OK/TX/CO/NM WERE
ALSO IN THE MID-UPR TEENS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DEN/AMA/ABQ ALL
SUGGEST DWPTS WILL DROP FURTHER TO BETWEEN 8-14F. NOT SURE IF THAT
WILL TRANSLATE 100% TO HERE...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS IT WILL BE
VERY DRY TO THE S TODAY. I STRUGGLED WITH TODAY`S DWPTS MOST OF
THE SHIFT. THEY TYPICALLY ARE NOT MODELED WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS REQUIRES SOME FCSTR
INTUITION AND SOME GUTS. I USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 05Z/06Z/07Z
RAP DEWPOINTS WHICH IS A BOLD FCST. THIS MAINTAINS AND/OR TAKES
OUR DWPTS INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM LIES IN THE SWATH OF SNOWPACK. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO DEAL WITH IT AND THE
SUBLIMATION/MELTING THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. WITH STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION...THEY ARE PROBABLY TOO MOIST OVER THE SNOWPACK AND IT
IS HARD TO KNOW HOW THE AMBIENT DRY AIR WILL BE MODIFIED BY THIS
MICROCLIMATE...N OF THE SNOWPACK. I KEPT DWPTS AROUND 20F OVER THE
NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE
FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

THE FUEL STATUS MAY HAVE CHANGED OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH THE RECENT
MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIP SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST STATUS NOT
IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE...BELIEVE IT WAS PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE RFW
OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.

TONIGHT: A WINDY MILD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL
SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE 40S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU DRY.
BECAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...THE RFW EXPIRATION WAS PUSHED
BACK TO 8 PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG
TERM FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCURRIES BY AND SWINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

THE MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...AND HENCE...PLACING MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND WE ARE NOT FAR FROM THE
PROJECTED NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. IT WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH DISTANCE TO PLACE OUR CWA IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
HOWEVER...SINCE TRENDS ARE FIRM AT THIS TIME...LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED
UP A TAD AS WELL...AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE 40S. LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE
FORECAST OF THE FARTHER SOUTHERN TREK...AND EVERYBODY REMAINS UNDER
AN INCH IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS FORECAST BY SOME NUMERICAL
MODELS TO TREK OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO MEAN MUCH BUSINESS.

A WARM-UP IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS A A QUICK-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY. AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
QUICKLY BY. BY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.

ANY RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING LARGER
RIDGE...AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO MONDAY...AND PROBABLY BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY: VFR WITH PATCHES OF 25K FT CIRROSTRATUS INCREASING AND
OTHER LAYERS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD SHOULD INVADE AFTER 18Z. ALL CIGS
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15K FT. WINDS WILL BECOME S THIS MORNING...
INCREASE AND GUST POTENTIALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AFTER 18Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-HIGH CIGS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND COULD EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE. LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE
AFTER 04Z...ESPECIALLY WHEN/IF SURFACE GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ074>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 150957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
457 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...A VERY NICE WARM-UP TODAY BUT WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY WILDFIRES IF THEY DEVELOP...

ALOFT: THE UPPER TROF AXIS WAS NOW E OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENT
NW FLOW HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WV
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NW.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PRECEDING IT WILL MOVE THRU TODAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROF AND PV STREAMER WILL ADVANCE INTO NEB/SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE PV
STREAMER.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WEAK
FRONT BISECTED NEB FROM NW-SE. A CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER ALBERTA.
THIS LOW WILL TRANSLATE SE AND ESSENTIALLY REFORM OVER WRN SD LATE
TODAY...AND CROSS SD TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND
YESTERDAY`S CHILLY AIR MASS TO RETREAT TO THE N AND E. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BISECTING THE REGION BY DAWN WED.

THE FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING /RFW/
FOR N-CNTRL KS AND EXTENDED N INTO S-CNTRL NEB UP TO MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG HWY 6.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: ESSENTIALLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH VERY LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR 730-830 AM...JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL.

TODAY: A SUNNY START. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AS THE WARM
SECTOR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. BECOMING WINDY BY MIDDAY. S WINDS
WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL. CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDDAY WITH OTHER LAYERS OF MID CLOUDS MOVING IN. CEILINGS WILL
DESCEND TO AROUND 15K FT. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY THOUGH.

THE LAST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A SW-NE SWATH OF SNOW STILL
ON THE GROUND FROM HOLDREGE TO GREELEY. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND IT HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FIRE WX: DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY VERY LOW /15-20F/ IN THE DRIEST
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS /DWPTS/ UPSTREAM OVER KS/OK/TX/CO/NM WERE
ALSO IN THE MID-UPR TEENS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DEN/AMA/ABQ ALL
SUGGEST DWPTS WILL DROP FURTHER TO BETWEEN 8-14F. NOT SURE IF THAT
WILL TRANSLATE 100% TO HERE...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS IT WILL BE
VERY DRY TO THE S TODAY. I STRUGGLED WITH TODAY`S DWPTS MOST OF
THE SHIFT. THEY TYPICALLY ARE NOT MODELED WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS REQUIRES SOME FCSTR
INTUITION AND SOME GUTS. I USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 05Z/06Z/07Z
RAP DEWPOINTS WHICH IS A BOLD FCST. THIS MAINTAINS AND/OR TAKES
OUR DWPTS INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM LIES IN THE SWATH OF SNOWPACK. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO DEAL WITH IT AND THE
SUBLIMATION/MELTING THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. WITH STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION...THEY ARE PROBABLY TOO MOIST OVER THE SNOWPACK AND IT
IS HARD TO KNOW HOW THE AMBIENT DRY AIR WILL BE MODIFIED BY THIS
MICROCLIMATE...N OF THE SNOWPACK. I KEPT DWPTS AROUND 20F OVER THE
NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE
FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

THE FUEL STATUS MAY HAVE CHANGED OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH THE RECENT
MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIP SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST STATUS NOT
IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE...BELIEVE IT WAS PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE RFW
OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.

TONIGHT: A WINDY MILD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL
SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE 40S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU DRY.
BECAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...THE RFW EXPIRATION WAS PUSHED
BACK TO 8 PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG
TERM FORECAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCURRIES BY AND SWINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

THE MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...AND HENCE...PLACING MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF AND WE ARE NOT FAR FROM THE
PROJECTED NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. IT WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH DISTANCE TO PLACE OUR CWA IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
HOWEVER...SINCE TRENDS ARE FIRM AT THIS TIME...LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED
UP A TAD AS WELL...AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE 40S. LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE
FORECAST OF THE FARTHER SOUTHERN TREK...AND EVERYBODY REMAINS UNDER
AN INCH IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS FORECAST BY SOME NUMERICAL
MODELS TO TREK OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO MEAN MUCH BUSINESS.

A WARM-UP IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS A A QUICK-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES BY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY. AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
QUICKLY BY. BY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.

ANY RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING LARGER
RIDGE...AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO MONDAY...AND PROBABLY BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAF FOR GRI THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
PROBABLY CALM FOR A COUPLE HRS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-HIGH CLOUDS INVADE AND GRADUALLY
DESCEND TO 15K FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME S AROUND
DAWN AT 10 KTS OR LESS...THEN INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 30 KTS AFTER
18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE DAYTIME HRS. VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY S WINDS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 04Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ074>077-082>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 150905
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...A VERY NICE WARM-UP TODAY BUT WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY WILDFIRES IF THEY DEVELOP...

ALOFT: THE UPPER TROF AXIS WAS NOW E OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENT
NW FLOW HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WV
IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NW.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PRECEDING IT WILL MOVE THRU TODAY. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROF AND PV STREAMER WILL ADVANCE INTO NEB/SD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE PV
STREAMER.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WEAK
FRONT BISECTED NEB FROM NW-SE. A CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER ALBERTA.
THIS LOW WILL TRANSLATE SE AND ESSENTIALLY REFORM OVER WRN SD LATE
TODAY...AND CROSS SD TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND
YESTERDAY`S CHILLY AIR MASS TO RETREAT TO THE N AND E. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BISECTING THE REGION BY DAWN WED.

THE FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING /RFW/
FOR N-CNTRL KS AND EXTENDED N INTO S-CNTRL NEB UP TO MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG HWY 6.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: ESSENTIALLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH VERY LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS. LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR 730-830 AM...JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL.

TODAY: A SUNNY START. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AS THE WARM
SECTOR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. BECOMING WINDY BY MIDDAY. S WINDS
WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL. CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDDAY WITH OTHER LAYERS OF MID CLOUDS MOVING IN. CEILINGS WILL
DESCEND TO AROUND 15K FT. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY THOUGH.

THE LAST VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A SW-NE SWATH OF SNOW STILL
ON THE GROUND FROM HOLDREGE TO GREELEY. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND IT HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FIRE WX: DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY VERY LOW /15-20F/ IN THE DRIEST
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS /DWPTS/ UPSTREAM OVER KS/OK/TX/CO/NM WERE
ALSO IN THE MID-UPR TEENS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DEN/AMA/ABQ ALL
SUGGEST DWPTS WILL DROP FURTHER TO BETWEEN 8-14F. NOT SURE IF THAT
WILL TRANSLATE 100% TO HERE...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS IT WILL BE
VERY DRY TO THE S TODAY. I STRUGGLED WITH TODAY`S DWPTS MOST OF
THE SHIFT. THEY TYPICALLY ARE NOT MODELED WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS REQUIRES SOME FCSTR
INTUITION AND SOME GUTS. I USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 05Z/06Z/07Z
RAP DEWPOINTS WHICH IS A BOLD FCST. THIS MAINTAINS AND/OR TAKES
OUR DWPTS INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM LIES IN THE SWATH OF SNOWPACK. MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO DEAL WITH IT AND THE
SUBLIMATION/MELTING THAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. WITH STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION...THEY ARE PROBABLY TOO MOIST OVER THE SNOWPACK AND IT
IS HARD TO KNOW HOW THE AMBIENT DRY AIR WILL BE MODIFIED BY THIS
MICROCLIMATE...N OF THE SNOWPACK. I KEPT DWPTS AROUND 20F OVER THE
NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE
FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

THE FUEL STATUS MAY HAVE CHANGED OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH THE RECENT
MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIP SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATEST STATUS NOT
IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE...BELIEVE IT WAS PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE RFW
OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.

TONIGHT: A WINDY MILD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL
SPEND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE 40S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU DRY.
BECAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...THE RFW EXPIRATION WAS PUSHED
BACK TO 8 PM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAF FOR GRI THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
PROBABLY CALM FOR A COUPLE HRS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-HIGH CLOUDS INVADE AND GRADUALLY
DESCEND TO 15K FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME S AROUND
DAWN AT 10 KTS OR LESS...THEN INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 30 KTS AFTER
18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE DAYTIME HRS. VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY S WINDS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 04Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 150538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRES WAS CRESTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT IS A BEAUTIFUL
NIGHT AND WILL BE PERFECT FOR VIEWING THE FULL ECLIPSE OF THE
MOON.

AS FAR AS THIS ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE...OUR FCST HOURLY
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COLD COMPARED TO REALITY...
ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. SO CURRENT TEMPS WERE MERGED WITH THE LATEST
HI-RES RAP/HRRR. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY AND
DEWPOINTS.

HAVE REEVALUATED FOG POTENTIAL. BIE VSBY WAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT THERE WAS A RAIN SHWR THAT LOCALLY INCREASED THE
DEWPOINT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW /ONLY
2-3F/ AT JYR AND HJH...BUT VSBYS ARE STILL 10+ MILES. MUCH DRIER
AIR WAS NOT FAR AWAY. THE DEWPOINT AT ORD DROPPED TO 9F THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATING. FOR NOW...CONTINUED NO
MENTION OF FOG. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AFTER A MESSY END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SC NEB
THANKS TO A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE BIGGER AREA OF CLOUD
COVER PUSHED EAST...HAD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AS EXPECTED WITH
THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...DIDNT TAKE LONG FOR A NEW BATCH OF CU TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME RA/SN SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE CWA...AND
WHILE NO ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN A TRACE HERE OR THERE ARE
EXPECTED...SOME AREA OBS HAVE SHOWN THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 MILES. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED W/NWRLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH THE AREA SITTING BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ERN CO/NM...AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. TEMPS AS OF
3 PM SHOWING THE ENTIRE CWA /MINUS EAR WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT
OPERATIONAL/ RIGHT NEAR 40 INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND A FEW
MAY EVEN LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE ISO
MENTION GOING THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WONT SEE MUCH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT W/NW TO W AND BECOMING
LIGHT IN SPEED...AND EVENTUALLY SWRLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. DID
TREND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A BIT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES...WITH UPPER TEENS/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST. CONSIDERED
INSERTING A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW
MELT...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NEVER
BECOME COMPLETELY CALM...AND THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...SO KEPT OUT...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CREW TO MONITOR.

INTO TOMORROW...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DOES THE
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TODAYS TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SWRLY WINDS...SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S IN AREAS WITH WHATEVER SNOWPACK
IS LINGERING...TO MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBO OF TEMPS/DPTS HAS RESULTED IN RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA. DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WX WATCH ACROSS OUR NC KS
COUNTIES...THE AREA WHICH SAW LITTLE PRECIP YESTERDAY AND STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS IS THE TRACK OF A STORM
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS SOUTH FM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY DURING THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION/GREAT LAKES AREA. THE FRONT
STALLS FM NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO EAST CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN
MO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLE
SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -7C
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY AND IN THE ZERO TO -2C RANGE
IN THE SE. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR PCPN AS
A MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS IN THE SW CONUS AND CLOSES OFF NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONES ON
THURSDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE H7 WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF PCPN. MOST MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AND MAIN PCPN AREA WITH NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. THE 12 GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND H7 LOW TRACK THAN THE GEM/NAM
WITH CHCS FOR PCPN EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. THE 12Z ECMWF FILLS
THE H7 LOW QUICKER THAN OTHER MODELS AS IT LIFTS NE. ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFER POPS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS LOWERING AS THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING SOUTH BUT PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS STILL STAND DECENT CHCS
FOR PCPN ATTM. PCPN TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING/DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR. AIRMASS DOES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY COOL ENOUGH FOR
TRANSITION FM RAIN TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...AND
HAVE WENT WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER WEATHER FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IN THE TRANSITION DAY.  THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...THEN
NEXT FOCUS IS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND A NORTHERN SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM/SYSTEMS CROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS THERE IS SOME CHC FOR PCPN AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MODELS DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INIT WITH THE BETTER TIME FRAME
CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING PCPN SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS INDICATE A MAINLY DRY
EASTER SUNDAY WITH 60S FOR HIGHS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ON THE UPSWING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAF FOR GRI THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
PROBABLY CALM FOR A COUPLE HRS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-HIGH CLOUDS INVADE AND GRADUALLY
DESCEND TO 15K FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME S AROUND
DAWN AT 10 KTS OR LESS...THEN INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 30 KTS AFTER
18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE DAYTIME HRS. VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY S WINDS. LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 04Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 150358
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1058 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRES WAS CRESTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT IS A BEAUTIFUL
NIGHT AND WILL BE PERFECT FOR VIEWING THE FULL ECLIPSE OF THE
MOON.

AS FAR AS THIS ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE...OUR FCST HOURLY
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COLD COMPARED TO REALITY...
ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. SO CURRENT TEMPS WERE MERGED WITH THE LATEST
HI-RES RAP/HRRR. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY AND
DEWPOINTS.

HAVE REEVALUATED FOG POTENTIAL. BIE VSBY WAS DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/4
MILE...BUT THERE WAS A RAIN SHWR THAT LOCALLY INCREASED THE
DEWPOINT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW /ONLY
2-3F/ AT JYR AND HJH...BUT VSBYS ARE STILL 10+ MILES. MUCH DRIER
AIR WAS NOT FAR AWAY. THE DEWPOINT AT ORD DROPPED TO 9F THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE WINDS BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATING. FOR NOW...CONTINUED NO
MENTION OF FOG. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AFTER A MESSY END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SC NEB
THANKS TO A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE BIGGER AREA OF CLOUD
COVER PUSHED EAST...HAD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AS EXPECTED WITH
THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...DIDNT TAKE LONG FOR A NEW BATCH OF CU TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME RA/SN SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE CWA...AND
WHILE NO ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN A TRACE HERE OR THERE ARE
EXPECTED...SOME AREA OBS HAVE SHOWN THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 MILES. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED W/NWRLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH THE AREA SITTING BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ERN CO/NM...AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. TEMPS AS OF
3 PM SHOWING THE ENTIRE CWA /MINUS EAR WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT
OPERATIONAL/ RIGHT NEAR 40 INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND A FEW
MAY EVEN LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE ISO
MENTION GOING THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WONT SEE MUCH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT W/NW TO W AND BECOMING
LIGHT IN SPEED...AND EVENTUALLY SWRLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. DID
TREND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A BIT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES...WITH UPPER TEENS/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST. CONSIDERED
INSERTING A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW
MELT...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NEVER
BECOME COMPLETELY CALM...AND THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...SO KEPT OUT...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CREW TO MONITOR.

INTO TOMORROW...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DOES THE
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TODAYS TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SWRLY WINDS...SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S IN AREAS WITH WHATEVER SNOWPACK
IS LINGERING...TO MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBO OF TEMPS/DPTS HAS RESULTED IN RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA. DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WX WATCH ACROSS OUR NC KS
COUNTIES...THE AREA WHICH SAW LITTLE PRECIP YESTERDAY AND STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS IS THE TRACK OF A STORM
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS SOUTH FM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY DURING THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION/GREAT LAKES AREA. THE FRONT
STALLS FM NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO EAST CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN
MO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLE
SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -7C
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY AND IN THE ZERO TO -2C RANGE
IN THE SE. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR PCPN AS
A MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS IN THE SW CONUS AND CLOSES OFF NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONES ON
THURSDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE H7 WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF PCPN. MOST MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AND MAIN PCPN AREA WITH NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. THE 12 GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND H7 LOW TRACK THAN THE GEM/NAM
WITH CHCS FOR PCPN EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. THE 12Z ECMWF FILLS
THE H7 LOW QUICKER THAN OTHER MODELS AS IT LIFTS NE. ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFER POPS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS LOWERING AS THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING SOUTH BUT PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS STILL STAND DECENT CHCS
FOR PCPN ATTM. PCPN TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING/DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR. AIRMASS DOES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY COOL ENOUGH FOR
TRANSITION FM RAIN TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...AND
HAVE WENT WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER WEATHER FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IN THE TRANSITION DAY.  THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...THEN
NEXT FOCUS IS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND A NORTHERN SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM/SYSTEMS CROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS THERE IS SOME CHC FOR PCPN AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MODELS DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INIT WITH THE BETTER TIME FRAME
CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING PCPN SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS INDICATE A MAINLY DRY
EASTER SUNDAY WITH 60S FOR HIGHS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ON THE UPSWING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODIC PASSING CLOUDS NEAR 6000FT AGL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
15-18KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 142338
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AFTER A MESSY END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SC NEB
THANKS TO A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE BIGGER AREA OF CLOUD
COVER PUSHED EAST...HAD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AS EXPECTED WITH
THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...DIDNT TAKE LONG FOR A NEW BATCH OF CU TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME RA/SN SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE CWA...AND
WHILE NO ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN A TRACE HERE OR THERE ARE
EXPECTED...SOME AREA OBS HAVE SHOWN THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 MILES. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED W/NWRLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH THE AREA SITTING BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ERN CO/NM...AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. TEMPS AS OF
3 PM SHOWING THE ENTIRE CWA /MINUS EAR WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT
OPERATIONAL/ RIGHT NEAR 40 INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND A FEW
MAY EVEN LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE ISO
MENTION GOING THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WONT SEE MUCH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT W/NW TO W AND BECOMING
LIGHT IN SPEED...AND EVENTUALLY SWRLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. DID
TREND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A BIT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES...WITH UPPER TEENS/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST. CONSIDERED
INSERTING A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW
MELT...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NEVER
BECOME COMPLETELY CALM...AND THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...SO KEPT OUT...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CREW TO MONITOR.

INTO TOMORROW...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DOES THE
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TODAYS TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SWRLY WINDS...SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S IN AREAS WITH WHATEVER SNOWPACK
IS LINGERING...TO MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBO OF TEMPS/DPTS HAS RESULTED IN RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA. DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WX WATCH ACROSS OUR NC KS
COUNTIES...THE AREA WHICH SAW LITTLE PRECIP YESTERDAY AND STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS IS THE TRACK OF A STORM
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS SOUTH FM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY DURING THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION/GREAT LAKES AREA. THE FRONT
STALLS FM NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO EAST CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN
MO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLE
SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -7C
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY AND IN THE ZERO TO -2C RANGE
IN THE SE. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR PCPN AS
A MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS IN THE SW CONUS AND CLOSES OFF NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONES ON
THURSDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE H7 WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF PCPN. MOST MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AND MAIN PCPN AREA WITH NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. THE 12 GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND H7 LOW TRACK THAN THE GEM/NAM
WITH CHCS FOR PCPN EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. THE 12Z ECMWF FILLS
THE H7 LOW QUICKER THAN OTHER MODELS AS IT LIFTS NE. ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFER POPS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS LOWERING AS THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING SOUTH BUT PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS STILL STAND DECENT CHCS
FOR PCPN ATTM. PCPN TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING/DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR. AIRMASS DOES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY COOL ENOUGH FOR
TRANSITION FM RAIN TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...AND
HAVE WENT WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER WEATHER FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IN THE TRANSITION DAY.  THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...THEN
NEXT FOCUS IS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND A NORTHERN SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM/SYSTEMS CROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS THERE IS SOME CHC FOR PCPN AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MODELS DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INIT WITH THE BETTER TIME FRAME
CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING PCPN SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS INDICATE A MAINLY DRY
EASTER SUNDAY WITH 60S FOR HIGHS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ON THE UPSWING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODIC PASSING CLOUDS NEAR 6000FT AGL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOME SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
15-18KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 142104
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AFTER A MESSY END TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SC NEB
THANKS TO A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE BIGGER AREA OF CLOUD
COVER PUSHED EAST...HAD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND AS EXPECTED WITH
THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...DIDNT TAKE LONG FOR A NEW BATCH OF CU TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME RA/SN SHOWERS. RADAR SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE CWA...AND
WHILE NO ACCUMULATIONS OTHER THAN A TRACE HERE OR THERE ARE
EXPECTED...SOME AREA OBS HAVE SHOWN THESE SHOWERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1-2 MILES. AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED W/NWRLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH THE AREA SITTING BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ERN CO/NM...AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. TEMPS AS OF
3 PM SHOWING THE ENTIRE CWA /MINUS EAR WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT
OPERATIONAL/ RIGHT NEAR 40 INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND A FEW
MAY EVEN LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SO KEPT THE ISO
MENTION GOING THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WONT SEE MUCH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT W/NW TO W AND BECOMING
LIGHT IN SPEED...AND EVENTUALLY SWRLY BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. DID
TREND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A BIT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES...WITH UPPER TEENS/MID 20S IN THE FORECAST. CONSIDERED
INSERTING A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW
MELT...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NEVER
BECOME COMPLETELY CALM...AND THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE HINTING AT
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES...SO KEPT OUT...BUT WILL
BE SOMETHING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CREW TO MONITOR.

INTO TOMORROW...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...AS DOES THE
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TODAYS TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SWRLY WINDS...SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOKING TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S IN AREAS WITH WHATEVER SNOWPACK
IS LINGERING...TO MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE COMBO OF TEMPS/DPTS HAS RESULTED IN RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA. DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WX WATCH ACROSS OUR NC KS
COUNTIES...THE AREA WHICH SAW LITTLE PRECIP YESTERDAY AND STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS IS THE TRACK OF A STORM
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER WAVE SWINGS SOUTH FM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY DURING THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION/GREAT LAKES AREA. THE FRONT
STALLS FM NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO EAST CENTRAL KS/NORTHERN
MO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLE
SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -7C
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY AND IN THE ZERO TO -2C RANGE
IN THE SE. THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR PCPN AS
A MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS IN THE SW CONUS AND CLOSES OFF NEAR THE TX
PANHANDLE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONES ON
THURSDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE H7 WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF PCPN. MOST MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT AND MAIN PCPN AREA WITH NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. THE 12 GFS
IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND H7 LOW TRACK THAN THE GEM/NAM
WITH CHCS FOR PCPN EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEB. THE 12Z ECMWF FILLS
THE H7 LOW QUICKER THAN OTHER MODELS AS IT LIFTS NE. ALTHOUGH THE
TREND IS SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFER POPS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS LOWERING AS THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING SOUTH BUT PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS STILL STAND DECENT CHCS
FOR PCPN ATTM. PCPN TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING/DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR. AIRMASS DOES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY COOL ENOUGH FOR
TRANSITION FM RAIN TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...AND
HAVE WENT WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER WEATHER FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IN THE TRANSITION DAY.  THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EASTER WEEKEND...THEN
NEXT FOCUS IS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND A NORTHERN SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS AREA. AS THE SYSTEM/SYSTEMS CROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS THERE IS SOME CHC FOR PCPN AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MODELS DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INIT WITH THE BETTER TIME FRAME
CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING PCPN SUNDAY MORNING...MOST MODELS INDICATE A MAINLY DRY
EASTER SUNDAY WITH 60S FOR HIGHS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS ON THE UPSWING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO CROSS THE PLAINS...AT THIS POINT
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED...SO LEFT AS A VC MENTION
FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT TIMES GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THEN SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO





000
FXUS63 KGID 141737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE PASSING
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AS THIS DEPENDS ON SNOW COVER AND HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS
OUT...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SNOW FELL
YESTERDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN THE
NORTH. WINDS HAVE STAYED IN THE WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
ISSUES FOR BLOWING SNOW...SO I HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITY SO FAR TONIGHT ON
ASOS/AWOS SITES HAS BEEN 3 MILES. THE WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY
LATE MORNING BUT STILL BE ELEVATED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX. WENT WITH SIMILAR LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT LOWER FOR SOME SPOTS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN AND WIND SETTLES DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINTRY WX IS NOT DONE YET AS MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRELIMINARY TAKE ON
THIS SUGGESTS THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO
THAYER/NUCKOLLS COUNTIES.

ALOFT: AS OF THIS MORNING...A LONGWAVE TROF WAS OVER CNTRL N AMERICA
WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A MODERATE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT...MOWING DOWN THE RIDGE W COAST RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE THRU HERE TUE FOLLOWED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE CNTRL N AMERICA TROF
INTO THU WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN OVER THE WRN USA. THE PAST TWO
CYCLES OF MODEL RUNS AND THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN FCST THE TROF TO
SHIFT INTO THE MS VALLEY FRI...WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE.
POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEMS LIE IN WAIT WED-THU AS MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD
REMAINS WITH THE DETAILS OF HOW THE BASE OF TROF EVOLVES.

WHILE THE INITIAL TROF MOVES THRU WED /PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/...A 120 KT JET STREAK WILL BE CARVING OUT A NEW LONGWAVE
TROF WED NIGHT...WITH A SHORTENING WAVELENGTH. THIS WILL INDUCE
MODEST CYCLOGENESIS THU ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES THRU HERE WED. A
COUPLE JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS THU AND LOOKS THREATENING FOR WINTRY
WX.

THE 12Z EC MEAN HAS ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT WITH
NW FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE SUN. WE DO NEED TO WATCH THE
TROF THAT WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW SAT-SUN. AT THE
LEAST IT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN.

SURFACE: THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS TUE AS A CLIPPER LOW DIVES INTO
SD. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THRU THE AREA WED AS THE LOW HEADS FOR
WI AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES BY DAWN THU. ANOTHER SURGE OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION AND THIS COULD
SPELL TROUBLE AS THE JET STREAK/FALLING HEIGHTS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS
THU INTO THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE FRONT AND WILL BE OVER
MO BY DAYBREAK FRI. SRN CANADA HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FRI AND SLIPS E
OF THE REGION SAT...WITH RETURN FLOW AND RENEWED LEE-SIDE TROFFING
DEVELOP. A POSSIBLE SNAG NEXT WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

HAZARDS: CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW.
HELD OFF ON A FIRE WX WATCH DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON
DEWPOINTS. I WANT TO GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A CHANCE TO RE-EVALUATE.

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOW OUTLOOKED FOR WED NIGHT-THU...PRIMARILY
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES OF WET
SNOW...POSSIBLY MORE.

FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TUE-FRI AND BELOW AVERAGE SAT-SUN.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS ROCKET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT
WITH SW WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

USED THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH INCORPORATES AS
SWATH OF RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE THE
GREATEST SNOW FELL.

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL WED NIGHT. FAIRLY CLOUDY. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES N OF I-
80 BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FALL WED NIGHT AS WAA AND DEFORMATION ZONE
PROCESSES DEVELOP. CAA WILL BE COOLING THE COLUMN SO PRECIP COULD
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. KEPT THE FAR SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...THESE ARE DETAILS THAT
WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU: PLAYED IT ALL SNOW...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TO COVER THE
POSSIBLE MORNING TRANSITION PERIOD S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. SNOW
WILL END THU NIGHT.

SOME CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED TO START/END TIMES AND CHANGEOVER
TIMES...IN FUTURE FCSTS.

00Z EC ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF SNOW ARE 50%. 20% FOR 3" AND
AROUND 10% FOR 6". THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC EC/GEM/GFS
ARE IN UNISON ON AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT /3-5"/ AND
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 6" OR MORE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS
AND SNOWFALL OUTLOOKS FROM THE WX PREDICTION CENTER.

BELIEVE WE ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR HIGH TEMPS THU. I LOWERED HIGHS
WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE TO AROUND 40F...BUT THERE IS A VERY HIGH
PROBABILITY THAT PART OR MOST OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
30S. THIS IDEA HAS MULTIPLE MODELS AND MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEHIND
IT.

FRI: USE OUR HIGH TEMPS WITH CAUTION. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE THU
THEN THE CURRENT TEMPS MAY BUST TOO WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

SAT-SUN: INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER. WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO CROSS THE PLAINS...AT THIS POINT
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED...SO LEFT AS A VC MENTION
FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT TIMES GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THEN SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADO





000
FXUS63 KGID 141045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE PASSING
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AS THIS DEPENDS ON SNOW COVER AND HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS
OUT...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SNOW FELL
YESTERDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN THE
NORTH. WINDS HAVE STAYED IN THE WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
ISSUES FOR BLOWING SNOW...SO I HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITY SO FAR TONIGHT ON
ASOS/AWOS SITES HAS BEEN 3 MILES. THE WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY
LATE MORNING BUT STILL BE ELEVATED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX. WENT WITH SIMILAR LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT LOWER FOR SOME SPOTS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN AND WIND SETTLES DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINTRY WX IS NOT DONE YET AS MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRELIMINARY TAKE ON
THIS SUGGESTS THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO
THAYER/NUCKOLLS COUNTIES.

ALOFT: AS OF THIS MORNING...A LONGWAVE TROF WAS OVER CNTRL N AMERICA
WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A MODERATE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT...MOWING DOWN THE RIDGE W COAST RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE THRU HERE TUE FOLLOWED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE CNTRL N AMERICA TROF
INTO THU WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN OVER THE WRN USA. THE PAST TWO
CYCLES OF MODEL RUNS AND THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN FCST THE TROF TO
SHIFT INTO THE MS VALLEY FRI...WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE.
POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEMS LIE IN WAIT WED-THU AS MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD
REMAINS WITH THE DETAILS OF HOW THE BASE OF TROF EVOLVES.

WHILE THE INITIAL TROF MOVES THRU WED /PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/...A 120 KT JET STREAK WILL BE CARVING OUT A NEW LONGWAVE
TROF WED NIGHT...WITH A SHORTENING WAVELENGTH. THIS WILL INDUCE
MODEST CYCLOGENESIS THU ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES THRU HERE WED. A
COUPLE JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS THU AND LOOKS THREATENING FOR WINTRY
WX.

THE 12Z EC MEAN HAS ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT WITH
NW FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE SUN. WE DO NEED TO WATCH THE
TROF THAT WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW SAT-SUN. AT THE
LEAST IT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN.

SURFACE: THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS TUE AS A CLIPPER LOW DIVES INTO
SD. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THRU THE AREA WED AS THE LOW HEADS FOR
WI AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES BY DAWN THU. ANOTHER SURGE OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION AND THIS COULD
SPELL TROUBLE AS THE JET STREAK/FALLING HEIGHTS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS
THU INTO THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE FRONT AND WILL BE OVER
MO BY DAYBREAK FRI. SRN CANADA HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FRI AND SLIPS E
OF THE REGION SAT...WITH RETURN FLOW AND RENEWED LEE-SIDE TROFFING
DEVELOP. A POSSIBLE SNAG NEXT WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

HAZARDS: CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW.
HELD OFF ON A FIRE WX WATCH DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON
DEWPOINTS. I WANT TO GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A CHANCE TO RE-EVALUATE.

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOW OUTLOOKED FOR WED NIGHT-THU...PRIMARILY
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES OF WET
SNOW...POSSIBLY MORE.

FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TUE-FRI AND BELOW AVERAGE SAT-SUN.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS ROCKET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT
WITH SW WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

USED THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH INCORPORATES AS
SWATH OF RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE THE
GREATEST SNOW FELL.

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL WED NIGHT. FAIRLY CLOUDY. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES N OF I-
80 BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FALL WED NIGHT AS WAA AND DEFORMATION ZONE
PROCESSES DEVELOP. CAA WILL BE COOLING THE COLUMN SO PRECIP COULD
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. KEPT THE FAR SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...THESE ARE DETAILS THAT
WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU: PLAYED IT ALL SNOW...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TO COVER THE
POSSIBLE MORNING TRANSITION PERIOD S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. SNOW
WILL END THU NIGHT.

SOME CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED TO START/END TIMES AND CHANGEOVER
TIMES...IN FUTURE FCSTS.

00Z EC ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF SNOW ARE 50%. 20% FOR 3" AND
AROUND 10% FOR 6". THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC EC/GEM/GFS
ARE IN UNISON ON AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT /3-5"/ AND
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 6" OR MORE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS
AND SNOWFALL OUTLOOKS FROM THE WX PREDICTION CENTER.

BELIEVE WE ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR HIGH TEMPS THU. I LOWERED HIGHS
WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE TO AROUND 40F...BUT THERE IS A VERY HIGH
PROBABILITY THAT PART OR MOST OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
30S. THIS IDEA HAS MULTIPLE MODELS AND MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEHIND
IT.

FRI: USE OUR HIGH TEMPS WITH CAUTION. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE THU
THEN THE CURRENT TEMPS MAY BUST TOO WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

SAT-SUN: INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER. WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
STOUT TODAY...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
ENOUGH BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY TO ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO FINALLY
DIMINISH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CHANCE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 140941
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
441 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE PASSING
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AS THIS DEPENDS ON SNOW COVER AND HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS
OUT...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SNOW FELL
YESTERDAY. I ACTUALLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN THE
NORTH. WINDS HAVE STAYED IN THE WIND ADVISORY RANGE FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
ISSUES FOR BLOWING SNOW...SO I HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITY SO FAR TONIGHT ON
ASOS/AWOS SITES HAS BEEN 3 MILES. THE WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY
LATE MORNING BUT STILL BE ELEVATED AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLOW TO RELAX. WENT WITH SIMILAR LOWS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT A BIT LOWER FOR SOME SPOTS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN AND WIND SETTLES DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINTRY WX IS NOT DONE YET AS MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. PRELIMINARY TAKE ON
THIS SUGGESTS THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO
THAYER/NUCKOLLS COUNTIES.

ALOFT: AS OF THIS MORNING...A LONGWAVE TROF WAS OVER CNTRL N AMERICA
WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST AND A MODERATE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT...MOWING DOWN THE RIDGE W COAST RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE THRU HERE TUE FOLLOWED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TROF WED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE CNTRL N AMERICA TROF
INTO THU WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN OVER THE WRN USA. THE PAST TWO
CYCLES OF MODEL RUNS AND THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN FCST THE TROF TO
SHIFT INTO THE MS VALLEY FRI...WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING HERE.
POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEMS LIE IN WAIT WED-THU AS MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD
REMAINS WITH THE DETAILS OF HOW THE BASE OF TROF EVOLVES.

WHILE THE INITIAL TROF MOVES THRU WED /PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/...A 120 KT JET STREAK WILL BE CARVING OUT A NEW LONGWAVE
TROF WED NIGHT...WITH A SHORTENING WAVELENGTH. THIS WILL INDUCE
MODEST CYCLOGENESIS THU ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES THRU HERE WED. A
COUPLE JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS THU AND LOOKS THREATENING FOR WINTRY
WX.

THE 12Z EC MEAN HAS ANOTHER TROF MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT WITH
NW FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE SUN. WE DO NEED TO WATCH THE
TROF THAT WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW SAT-SUN. AT THE
LEAST IT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN.

SURFACE: THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS TUE AS A CLIPPER LOW DIVES INTO
SD. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THRU THE AREA WED AS THE LOW HEADS FOR
WI AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES BY DAWN THU. ANOTHER SURGE OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION AND THIS COULD
SPELL TROUBLE AS THE JET STREAK/FALLING HEIGHTS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS
THU INTO THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE FRONT AND WILL BE OVER
MO BY DAYBREAK FRI. SRN CANADA HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FRI AND SLIPS E
OF THE REGION SAT...WITH RETURN FLOW AND RENEWED LEE-SIDE TROFFING
DEVELOP. A POSSIBLE SNAG NEXT WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

HAZARDS: CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW.
HELD OFF ON A FIRE WX WATCH DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON
DEWPOINTS. I WANT TO GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A CHANCE TO RE-EVALUATE.

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOW OUTLOOKED FOR WED NIGHT-THU...PRIMARILY
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES OF WET
SNOW...POSSIBLY MORE.

FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TUE-FRI AND BELOW AVERAGE SAT-SUN.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. TEMPS ROCKET BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT
WITH SW WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

USED THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH INCORPORATES AS
SWATH OF RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE THE
GREATEST SNOW FELL.

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL WED NIGHT. FAIRLY CLOUDY. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES N OF I-
80 BUT IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FALL WED NIGHT AS WAA AND DEFORMATION ZONE
PROCESSES DEVELOP. CAA WILL BE COOLING THE COLUMN SO PRECIP COULD
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. KEPT THE FAR SE
FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...THESE ARE DETAILS THAT
WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.

THU: PLAYED IT ALL SNOW...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TO COVER THE
POSSIBLE MORNING TRANSITION PERIOD S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. SNOW
WILL END THU NIGHT.

SOME CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED TO START/END TIMES AND CHANGEOVER
TIMES...IN FUTURE FCSTS.

00Z EC ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF SNOW ARE 50%. 20% FOR 3" AND
AROUND 10% FOR 6". THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC EC/GEM/GFS
ARE IN UNISON ON AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT /3-5"/ AND
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 6" OR MORE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS
AND SNOWFALL OUTLOOKS FROM THE WX PREDICTION CENTER.

BELIEVE WE ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR HIGH TEMPS THU. I LOWERED HIGHS
WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE TO AROUND 40F...BUT THERE IS A VERY HIGH
PROBABILITY THAT PART OR MOST OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
30S. THIS IDEA HAS MULTIPLE MODELS AND MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEHIND
IT.

FRI: USE OUR HIGH TEMPS WITH CAUTION. IF SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE THU
THEN THE CURRENT TEMPS MAY BUST TOO WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

SAT-SUN: INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER. WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
STOUT FOR SOME TIME...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY TO ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO
FINALLY DIMINISH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 140559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE UNDER-ESTIMATED THE WINTRY ASPECT OF THIS
STRONG SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR SLAMMED INTO THE
AREA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION
ZONE EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS AND WELL-CAPTURED BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE RAP13...HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WIDE BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME
SLEET ON ITS LEADING EDGE. AS OF THIS WRITING...AND BASED ON
SEVERAL MAINLY UNOFFICIAL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LIKELY SOME LOCALLY HIGHER EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE...WHILE
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA HAS THUS FAR OBSERVED ONLY A
DUSTING IF ANYTHING AT ALL...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET HELD ON
LONGER AHEAD OF THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. ALL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SAVE FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO WITHIN
THE MAIN SNOW BAND...HAS LONG SINCE RE- FOCUSED WELL TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER AREA.

AS OF 2130Z...TEMPS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAVE CRASHED INTO
THE 30-36 RANGE...AS THE MAIN DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS ITS CENTRAL AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM PHILLIPSBURG-MINDEN-FULLERTON BUT EXTENDING 1-2
COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A VERY
ACTIVE...BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ONE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA
AT THIS TIME...WHILE UPSTREAM THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH AXIS
GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ND TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE AVERAGED SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 25-35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS THE
CWA...OWING TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE NORTHWEST OF A ROUGHLY
996 MILLIBAR ELONGATED LOW STRETCHED FROM OK TO NORTH CENTRAL MO.

LOOKING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND STARTING
WITH HEADLINES...HAVE TACKED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ONTO THE
EARLIER-ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VALID THROUGH 8PM...TO
HOPEFULLY CAPTURE THE MOST SOLID AREA OF 1-2+ INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. CERTAINLY THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HEADLINE MAY BE DROPPED A LITTLE EARLY AS
ALREADY THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW IS VACATING THE
DAWSON/GOSPER COUNTY AREA. GIVEN THAT STRONG WINDS WILL LAST
LONGER THAN THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS...THE ORIGINAL CWA-WIDE WIND
ADVISORY WAS LEFT INTACT THROUGH 10 PM...AND EVEN THEN SOME PLACES
MAY STILL BE FLIRTING WITH 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. AS FOR NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CWA BEFORE THE
DEFORMATION BAND EXITS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA NO LATER THAN THE
9PM-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. AFTER 06Z/1AM...LINGERED ONLY A LOW 20-30
POP FOR AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING PRIMARLY IN KS ZONES...BUT BY THEN
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA IS SNOW-FREE AS THE MAIN
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY
SUNRISE...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY KEEPS BUILDING IN. HAVE LOW TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 25-29 RANGE MOST SPOTS...HELD UP BY THE WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...TEMPS ARE A BIG
QUESTION MARK GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
AREAS. SHAVED AT LEAST 2-5 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS VALUES AND MAYBE
NOT ENOUGH...BUT NOW CALLING FOR MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT 41-45 AS A
BEST-GUESS...AND EVEN THIS MAY DEPEND ON SOME AFTERNOON SUN
BREAKING OUT AFTER A RATHER CLOUDY START. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIP...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AND AS
HINTED BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHIFT FORECASTER...AS STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP UNDER THE HEART OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SOME SLACKENING LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DEPART/SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.  SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SLIDE TO THE EAST
WHILE THE HIGH PLAINS LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  NIGHTTIME
TEMPS STILL WILL BE UNSEASONALLY COLD WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL
LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH
THE SFC LOW THAN THE NAM TUESDAY AFTN...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS PROGGED DURING THE AFTN.  IN THE DRY...WARMING AIRMASS AND
INCREASING WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND TRENDS/DEPTH OF MIXING.
ALSO...THE RECENT PCPN MAY IMPACT THE FIRE FUELS AND THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY GREEN UP WITH SPRING SO FUELS WILL ALSO NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

THE WARMUP EARLY/MID WEEK WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS
IS THE QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN OTHER MODELS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND/ENSEMBLE FOR TIMING ATTM.  THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ONTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS.  WHILE THE MAIN CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN COLORADO AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
YET...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  WITH THE COOLING AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MIX
OF R/S CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  PRECIPITATION CHCS CARRY INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH...WITH CHCS
DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE MORE SO BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE MID WEEK STORM
MOVING OUT...AS WELL AS HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVING IN FM
THE PACIFIC AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM EXTENDED INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
STOUT FOR SOME TIME...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY TO ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO
FINALLY DIMINISH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 132337
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE UNDER-ESTIMATED THE WINTRY ASPECT OF THIS
STRONG SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR SLAMMED INTO THE
AREA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION
ZONE EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS AND WELL-CAPTURED BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE RAP13...HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WIDE BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME
SLEET ON ITS LEADING EDGE. AS OF THIS WRITING...AND BASED ON
SEVERAL MAINLY UNOFFICIAL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LIKELY SOME LOCALLY HIGHER EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE...WHILE
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA HAS THUS FAR OBSERVED ONLY A
DUSTING IF ANYTHING AT ALL...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET HELD ON
LONGER AHEAD OF THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. ALL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SAVE FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO WITHIN
THE MAIN SNOW BAND...HAS LONG SINCE RE- FOCUSED WELL TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER AREA.

AS OF 2130Z...TEMPS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAVE CRASHED INTO
THE 30-36 RANGE...AS THE MAIN DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS ITS CENTRAL AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM PHILLIPSBURG-MINDEN-FULLERTON BUT EXTENDING 1-2
COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A VERY
ACTIVE...BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ONE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA
AT THIS TIME...WHILE UPSTREAM THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH AXIS
GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ND TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE AVERAGED SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 25-35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS THE
CWA...OWING TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE NORTHWEST OF A ROUGHLY
996 MILLIBAR ELONGATED LOW STRETCHED FROM OK TO NORTH CENTRAL MO.

LOOKING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND STARTING
WITH HEADLINES...HAVE TACKED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ONTO THE
EARLIER-ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VALID THROUGH 8PM...TO
HOPEFULLY CAPTURE THE MOST SOLID AREA OF 1-2+ INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. CERTAINLY THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HEADLINE MAY BE DROPPED A LITTLE EARLY AS
ALREADY THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW IS VACATING THE
DAWSON/GOSPER COUNTY AREA. GIVEN THAT STRONG WINDS WILL LAST
LONGER THAN THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS...THE ORIGINAL CWA-WIDE WIND
ADVISORY WAS LEFT INTACT THROUGH 10 PM...AND EVEN THEN SOME PLACES
MAY STILL BE FLIRTING WITH 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. AS FOR NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CWA BEFORE THE
DEFORMATION BAND EXITS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA NO LATER THAN THE
9PM-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. AFTER 06Z/1AM...LINGERED ONLY A LOW 20-30
POP FOR AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING PRIMARLY IN KS ZONES...BUT BY THEN
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA IS SNOW-FREE AS THE MAIN
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY
SUNRISE...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY KEEPS BUILDING IN. HAVE LOW TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 25-29 RANGE MOST SPOTS...HELD UP BY THE WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...TEMPS ARE A BIG
QUESTION MARK GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
AREAS. SHAVED AT LEAST 2-5 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS VALUES AND MAYBE
NOT ENOUGH...BUT NOW CALLING FOR MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT 41-45 AS A
BEST-GUESS...AND EVEN THIS MAY DEPEND ON SOME AFTERNOON SUN
BREAKING OUT AFTER A RATHER CLOUDY START. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIP...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AND AS
HINTED BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHIFT FORECASTER...AS STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP UNDER THE HEART OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SOME SLACKENING LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DEPART/SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.  SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SLIDE TO THE EAST
WHILE THE HIGH PLAINS LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  NIGHTTIME
TEMPS STILL WILL BE UNSEASONALLY COLD WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL
LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH
THE SFC LOW THAN THE NAM TUESDAY AFTN...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS PROGGED DURING THE AFTN.  IN THE DRY...WARMING AIRMASS AND
INCREASING WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND TRENDS/DEPTH OF MIXING.
ALSO...THE RECENT PCPN MAY IMPACT THE FIRE FUELS AND THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY GREEN UP WITH SPRING SO FUELS WILL ALSO NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

THE WARMUP EARLY/MID WEEK WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS
IS THE QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN OTHER MODELS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND/ENSEMBLE FOR TIMING ATTM.  THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ONTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS.  WHILE THE MAIN CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN COLORADO AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
YET...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  WITH THE COOLING AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MIX
OF R/S CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  PRECIPITATION CHCS CARRY INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH...WITH CHCS
DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE MORE SO BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE MID WEEK STORM
MOVING OUT...AS WELL AS HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVING IN FM
THE PACIFIC AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM EXTENDED INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREA OF SNOW WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL STILL TAKE AN
HOUR OR TWO TO CLEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE PASSES AND AS SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA AT PRESENT. THE STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL
STILL BE A FACTOR OVERNIGHT AS WE SIT BETWEEN A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER IL/MO AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO WY. SHOULD
BE A BIT LIGHTER BY SUNRISE BUT WONT DECREASE INTO THE 10 KT RANGE
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-
     076-077-086-087.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-
     007.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...EWALD





000
FXUS63 KGID 132203
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
503 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE UNDER-ESTIMATED THE WINTRY ASPECT OF THIS
STRONG SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR SLAMMED INTO THE
AREA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION
ZONE EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS AND WELL-CAPTURED BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE RAP13...HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WIDE BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME
SLEET ON ITS LEADING EDGE. AS OF THIS WRITING...AND BASED ON
SEVERAL MAINLY UNOFFICIAL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LIKELY SOME LOCALLY HIGHER EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE...WHILE
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA HAS THUS FAR OBSERVED ONLY A
DUSTING IF ANYTHING AT ALL...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET HELD ON
LONGER AHEAD OF THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. ALL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SAVE FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO WITHIN
THE MAIN SNOW BAND...HAS LONG SINCE RE- FOCUSED WELL TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER AREA.

AS OF 2130Z...TEMPS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAVE CRASHED INTO
THE 30-36 RANGE...AS THE MAIN DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS ITS CENTRAL AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM PHILLIPSBURG-MINDEN-FULLERTON BUT EXTENDING 1-2
COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A VERY
ACTIVE...BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ONE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA
AT THIS TIME...WHILE UPSTREAM THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH AXIS
GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ND TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE AVERAGED SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 25-35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS THE
CWA...OWING TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE NORTHWEST OF A ROUGHLY
996 MILLIBAR ELONGATED LOW STRETCHED FROM OK TO NORTH CENTRAL MO.

LOOKING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND STARTING
WITH HEADLINES...HAVE TACKED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ONTO THE
EARLIER-ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VALID THROUGH 8PM...TO
HOPEFULLY CAPTURE THE MOST SOLID AREA OF 1-2+ INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. CERTAINLY THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HEADLINE MAY BE DROPPED A LITTLE EARLY AS
ALREADY THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW IS VACATING THE
DAWSON/GOSPER COUNTY AREA. GIVEN THAT STRONG WINDS WILL LAST
LONGER THAN THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS...THE ORIGINAL CWA-WIDE WIND
ADVISORY WAS LEFT INTACT THROUGH 10 PM...AND EVEN THEN SOME PLACES
MAY STILL BE FLIRTING WITH 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. AS FOR NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CWA BEFORE THE
DEFORMATION BAND EXITS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA NO LATER THAN THE
9PM-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. AFTER 06Z/1AM...LINGERED ONLY A LOW 20-30
POP FOR AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING PRIMARLY IN KS ZONES...BUT BY THEN
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA IS SNOW-FREE AS THE MAIN
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY
SUNRISE...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY KEEPS BUILDING IN. HAVE LOW TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 25-29 RANGE MOST SPOTS...HELD UP BY THE WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...TEMPS ARE A BIG
QUESTION MARK GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
AREAS. SHAVED AT LEAST 2-5 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS VALUES AND MAYBE
NOT ENOUGH...BUT NOW CALLING FOR MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT 41-45 AS A
BEST-GUESS...AND EVEN THIS MAY DEPEND ON SOME AFTERNOON SUN
BREAKING OUT AFTER A RATHER CLOUDY START. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIP...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AND AS
HINTED BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHIFT FORECASTER...AS STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP UNDER THE HEART OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SOME SLACKENING LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DEPART/SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.  SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SLIDE TO THE EAST
WHILE THE HIGH PLAINS LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  NIGHTTIME
TEMPS STILL WILL BE UNSEASONALLY COLD WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL
LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH
THE SFC LOW THAN THE NAM TUESDAY AFTN...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS PROGGED DURING THE AFTN.  IN THE DRY...WARMING AIRMASS AND
INCREASING WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND TRENDS/DEPTH OF MIXING.
ALSO...THE RECENT PCPN MAY IMPACT THE FIRE FUELS AND THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY GREEN UP WITH SPRING SO FUELS WILL ALSO NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

THE WARMUP EARLY/MID WEEK WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS
IS THE QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN OTHER MODELS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND/ENSEMBLE FOR TIMING ATTM.  THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ONTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS.  WHILE THE MAIN CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN COLORADO AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
YET...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  WITH THE COOLING AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MIX
OF R/S CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  PRECIPITATION CHCS CARRY INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH...WITH CHCS
DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE MORE SO BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE MID WEEK STORM
MOVING OUT...AS WELL AS HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVING IN FM
THE PACIFIC AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM EXTENDED INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE WINTRY ASPECT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEFINITELY
REARED ITS HEAD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE
EXPECTATION IS NOW FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN
FALLING SNOW...WHICH COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY SLIP INTO LIFR
VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST BANDING. THE MAIN PART OF THE SNOW BAND
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 00Z...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
IN MVFR VISIBILITY COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO 03Z. WHENEVER SNOW
DOES FINALLY END THIS EVENING...THAT SHOULD BE THE END OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD...AND HAVE CEILING RETURNING TO VFR
AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
25-30KT AND GUSTS UP INTO THE 35-40KT RANGE...BUT SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 20-25KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>085.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





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