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000
FXUS63 KGID 262334
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...THIS PROLONGED WARM SPELL IS PEAKING TODAY-TOMORROW WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THAT "COULD" THREATEN RECORD HIGHS...

ALOFT: NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TOMORROW. THE ANOMALOUS WRN USA RIDGE
/500 MB HEIGHTS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL GET
SHUNTED EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE LOW OFF CA OPENS UP AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD.

SURFACE: ANOTHER CLIPPER WAS TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. ITS VERY
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EASE INTO SD/NEB/KS FROM NW-SE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE E TOMORROW...AS THE
NEXT LOW ORGANIZES OVER ALBERTA. THIS WILL PUT THE FCST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ANOMALOUS
WARMTH.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SLACKENING WINDS SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT
IF YOU CAN! BIKES...WALKS...CAR WASHING ETC. STILL SEVERAL DEGS
SHY OF RECORDS.

TONIGHT: OUTSIDE OF THE TRI-CITIES...TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL
DEGS BELOW THE PREVIOUS FCST. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. SFC
RIDGE/A PERIOD OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE.

TUE: INCREDIBLE! AND EVEN BETTER THAN TODAY WITH LESS WIND.

THE MAIN QUESTION: ARE WE WARM ENOUGH? IT IS HARD TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH EXCESSES /IE - HIGH TEMPS 30F ABOVE NORMAL/
WITH FCST GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
TODAY. AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEPLY WE MIX INTO A POOL OF VERY
WARM 850 MB TEMPS DOES NOT HELP. OUR WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
THE SAME...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A PERSISTENCE FCST COULD
BURN US.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF 06Z/12Z CONSENSUS OF MOS DWPTS 21Z-00Z.
THIS IS NOT AS LOW AS MOS GUIDE /WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY/ DUE TO EXPECTED SSE WIND DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S...BUT THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE
EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. COOLER AIR AND A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE GFS
HAS IT FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN PART. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK AS THOUGH THERE WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NORTHWEST AND
MAYBE RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM A LITTLE AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RAIN OR SNOW FOR A WHILE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT EXPECT ALL
SNOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND HELPS TO CLEAR SKIES OUT. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP...BUT ONLY A
LITTLE...ABOUT BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE
WIND WILL BE NEARLY CALM TONIGHT AND THEN EXPECT JUST A GENTLE
SOUTH BREEZE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AFTER 19 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMP BELOW NORMAL
/DEC 27TH-JAN 13TH/ WE HAVE FLIPPED TO THE OTHER SIDE WITH A
LENGTHY STRETCH OF WARMER TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THIS
WARM SPELL BEGAN BACK ON THE 14TH. THIS CAN/T LAST FOREVER AND WE
WILL BE COMPENSATED ON THE COLD SIDE SOMETIME IN FEB. SO ENJOY IT
WHILE WE HAVE IT.

LISTED BELOW ARE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS. FORECASTING TEMPS
THIS FAR ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT EASY...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS TO END UP EVEN WARMER THAN FCST. LISTED
BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS VS THE CURRENT FCST.

TUE 1/27
GRI: 68 IN 1934. FCST: 64
HSI: 67 IN 1934. FCST: 66

WED 1/28
GRI: 63 IN 1986. FCST: 60
HSI: 69 IN 1931. FCST: 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ADP/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 262120
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...THIS PROLONGED WARM SPELL IS PEAKING TODAY-TOMORROW WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THAT "COULD" THREATEN RECORD HIGHS...

ALOFT: NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TOMORROW. THE ANOMALOUS WRN USA RIDGE
/500 MB HEIGHTS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL GET
SHUNTED EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE LOW OFF CA OPENS UP AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD.

SURFACE: ANOTHER CLIPPER WAS TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. ITS VERY
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EASE INTO SD/NEB/KS FROM NW-SE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE E TOMORROW...AS THE
NEXT LOW ORGANIZES OVER ALBERTA. THIS WILL PUT THE FCST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ANOMALOUS
WARMTH.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SLACKENING WINDS SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT
IF YOU CAN! BIKES...WALKS...CAR WASHING ETC. STILL SEVERAL DEGS
SHY OF RECORDS.

TONIGHT: OUTSIDE OF THE TRI-CITIES...TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL
DEGS BELOW THE PREVIOUS FCST. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. SFC
RIDGE/A PERIOD OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE.

TUE: INCREDIBLE! AND EVEN BETTER THAN TODAY WITH LESS WIND.

THE MAIN QUESTION: ARE WE WARM ENOUGH? IT IS HARD TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH EXCESSES /IE - HIGH TEMPS 30F ABOVE NORMAL/
WITH FCST GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
TODAY. AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEPLY WE MIX INTO A POOL OF VERY
WARM 850 MB TEMPS DOES NOT HELP. OUR WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
THE SAME...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A PERSISTENCE FCST COULD
BURN US.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF 06Z/12Z CONSENSUS OF MOS DWPTS 21Z-00Z.
THIS IS NOT AS LOW AS MOS GUIDE /WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY/ DUE TO EXPECTED SSE WIND DIRECTION.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S...BUT THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE
EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. COOLER AIR AND A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE GFS
HAS IT FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN PART. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK AS THOUGH THERE WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NORTHWEST AND
MAYBE RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM A LITTLE AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RAIN OR SNOW FOR A WHILE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT EXPECT ALL
SNOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND HELPS TO CLEAR SKIES OUT. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP...BUT ONLY A
LITTLE...ABOUT BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE SMALL PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS BUT GUSTINESS WILL
END AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. LGT AND VAR WINDS WILL BECOME SSE UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AFTER 19 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMP BELOW NORMAL
/DEC 27TH-JAN 13TH/ WE HAVE FLIPPED TO THE OTHER SIDE WITH A
LENGTHY STRETCH OF WARMER TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THIS
WARM SPELL BEGAN BACK ON THE 14TH. THIS CAN/T LAST FOREVER AND WE
WILL BE COMPENSATED ON THE COLD SIDE SOMETIME IN FEB. SO ENJOY IT
WHILE WE HAVE IT.

LISTED BELOW ARE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS. FORECASTING TEMPS
THIS FAR ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT EASY...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS TO END UP EVEN WARMER THAN FCST. LISTED
BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS VS THE CURRENT FCST.

TUE 1/27
GRI: 68 IN 1934. FCST: 64
HSI: 67 IN 1934. FCST: 66

WED 1/28
GRI: 63 IN 1986. FCST: 60
HSI: 69 IN 1931. FCST: 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ADP/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 262120
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...THIS PROLONGED WARM SPELL IS PEAKING TODAY-TOMORROW WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THAT "COULD" THREATEN RECORD HIGHS...

ALOFT: NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TOMORROW. THE ANOMALOUS WRN USA RIDGE
/500 MB HEIGHTS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL GET
SHUNTED EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE LOW OFF CA OPENS UP AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD.

SURFACE: ANOTHER CLIPPER WAS TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. ITS VERY
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EASE INTO SD/NEB/KS FROM NW-SE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE E TOMORROW...AS THE
NEXT LOW ORGANIZES OVER ALBERTA. THIS WILL PUT THE FCST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ANOMALOUS
WARMTH.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SLACKENING WINDS SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT
IF YOU CAN! BIKES...WALKS...CAR WASHING ETC. STILL SEVERAL DEGS
SHY OF RECORDS.

TONIGHT: OUTSIDE OF THE TRI-CITIES...TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL
DEGS BELOW THE PREVIOUS FCST. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. SFC
RIDGE/A PERIOD OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE.

TUE: INCREDIBLE! AND EVEN BETTER THAN TODAY WITH LESS WIND.

THE MAIN QUESTION: ARE WE WARM ENOUGH? IT IS HARD TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH EXCESSES /IE - HIGH TEMPS 30F ABOVE NORMAL/
WITH FCST GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
TODAY. AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEPLY WE MIX INTO A POOL OF VERY
WARM 850 MB TEMPS DOES NOT HELP. OUR WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
THE SAME...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A PERSISTENCE FCST COULD
BURN US.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF 06Z/12Z CONSENSUS OF MOS DWPTS 21Z-00Z.
THIS IS NOT AS LOW AS MOS GUIDE /WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY/ DUE TO EXPECTED SSE WIND DIRECTION.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S...BUT THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE
EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. COOLER AIR AND A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE GFS
HAS IT FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN PART. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK AS THOUGH THERE WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NORTHWEST AND
MAYBE RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM A LITTLE AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RAIN OR SNOW FOR A WHILE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT EXPECT ALL
SNOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND HELPS TO CLEAR SKIES OUT. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP...BUT ONLY A
LITTLE...ABOUT BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE SMALL PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS BUT GUSTINESS WILL
END AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. LGT AND VAR WINDS WILL BECOME SSE UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AFTER 19 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMP BELOW NORMAL
/DEC 27TH-JAN 13TH/ WE HAVE FLIPPED TO THE OTHER SIDE WITH A
LENGTHY STRETCH OF WARMER TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THIS
WARM SPELL BEGAN BACK ON THE 14TH. THIS CAN/T LAST FOREVER AND WE
WILL BE COMPENSATED ON THE COLD SIDE SOMETIME IN FEB. SO ENJOY IT
WHILE WE HAVE IT.

LISTED BELOW ARE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS. FORECASTING TEMPS
THIS FAR ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT EASY...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS TO END UP EVEN WARMER THAN FCST. LISTED
BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS VS THE CURRENT FCST.

TUE 1/27
GRI: 68 IN 1934. FCST: 64
HSI: 67 IN 1934. FCST: 66

WED 1/28
GRI: 63 IN 1986. FCST: 60
HSI: 69 IN 1931. FCST: 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ADP/PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 261757
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

DONT SEE ANY REAL NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST BASED ON
MORNING OBS/TRENDS. WE WILL BE MONITORING WINDS/TEMPS/RH. THINK WE
WILL JUST SKIRT BY WITHOUT NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR SW
COUNTIES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1 OR 2 HRS OF
WINDS/RH EXCEEDING CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY/TONIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE REALLY ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE SMALL PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS BUT GUSTINESS WILL
END AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. LGT AND VAR WINDS WILL BECOME SSE UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 261757
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

DONT SEE ANY REAL NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST BASED ON
MORNING OBS/TRENDS. WE WILL BE MONITORING WINDS/TEMPS/RH. THINK WE
WILL JUST SKIRT BY WITHOUT NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR SW
COUNTIES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1 OR 2 HRS OF
WINDS/RH EXCEEDING CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY/TONIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE REALLY ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE SMALL PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS BUT GUSTINESS WILL
END AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. LGT AND VAR WINDS WILL BECOME SSE UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261544
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
944 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

DONT SEE ANY REAL NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST BASED ON
MORNING OBS/TRENDS. WE WILL BE MONITORING WINDS/TEMPS/RH. THINK WE
WILL JUST SKIRT BY WITHOUT NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR SW
COUNTIES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1 OR 2 HRS OF
WINDS/RH EXCEEDING CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY/TONIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE REALLY ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUE MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...STILL LOOKING AT QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A SFC
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CWA...BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...THOUGH GUSTS
CLOSER TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS UNTIL
THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND INCREASE IN SPEED...SO KEPT THE
MENTION GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261129
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE
REALLY ISNT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY
ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...STILL LOOKING AT QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A SFC
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CWA...BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...THOUGH GUSTS
CLOSER TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS UNTIL
THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND INCREASE IN SPEED...SO KEPT THE
MENTION GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261129
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE
REALLY ISNT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY
ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...STILL LOOKING AT QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A SFC
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
CWA...BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...THOUGH GUSTS
CLOSER TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS UNTIL
THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW AND INCREASE IN SPEED...SO KEPT THE
MENTION GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 261111 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
321 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE
REALLY ISNT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY
ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBS SHOW A DECK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. UNTIL THAT
INCREASE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS...AND WHILE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SINCE IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE TAF...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
DURING THE EVENING/LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261111 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
321 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE
REALLY ISNT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY
ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBS SHOW A DECK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. UNTIL THAT
INCREASE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS...AND WHILE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SINCE IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE TAF...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
DURING THE EVENING/LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 260921
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
321 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM 230483209482304823098

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE
REALLY ISNT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY
ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBS SHOW A DECK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. UNTIL THAT
INCREASE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS...AND WHILE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SINCE IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE TAF...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
DURING THE EVENING/LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 260921
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
321 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED WELL AMPLIFIED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HAVE HAD A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS
RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE THE
BORDERS...WITH CURRENT SKIES BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE RISEN/REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS A
WARMER AIR MASS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY EAST...AND AS OF 3 AM
RANGE FROM 230483209482304823098

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THERE
REALLY ISNT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY
ONE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH WINDS/FIRE WX CONCERNS. AT THE SFC...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN WRLY WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING THAT BY MID MORNING THE ERN HALF WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST...AND AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS/GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
REACHING GENERALLY THE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS
SET UP ALOFT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH A POSSIBILITY.

THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
THE WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA /AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MID 30S/...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST ON THE
HIGHER END OF MODELS/GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S /SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW IF CURIOUS ABOUT RECORD HIGHS/.
KEPT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER SIDE...WHICH IS OFTEN A
CONCERN WHEN THERE IS GOOD W/NW/SWRLY WINDS...AND DIDNT MAKE
NOTABLE CHANGES TO INHERITED DPTS. THE RESULT OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AT
LEAST THE SWRN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL VALUES
FOR FIRE WX. CLOSE TO/BUT NOT HITTING THOSE VALUES NEEDED FOR A
FIRE WX HEADLINE...BUT TRENDS DURING THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED BY THE DAY CREW...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN T/DPTS TO HIT THOSE CRITICAL VALUES.

DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THUS HELPING PROMOTE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...APPEARS VERY WEAK AND WITH LIMITED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO OMEGA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION COULD BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE SLOWER EC
SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THERE REALLY IS NO LOGICAL
REASON TO PICK ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AND GIVEN THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH AS IT WAS RECEIVED...WHICH SIDED MORE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION AND PRESENTED LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
PRIMARY BAND OF OMEGA...FRIDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY WITH FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A VERY WARM BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THUS ALLOWING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBS SHOW A DECK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. UNTIL THAT
INCREASE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS...AND WHILE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SINCE IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE TAF...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
DURING THE EVENING/LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR TODAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS
SITES...GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS
FOR AT LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND:

TODAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 66

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 60
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 260549
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1149 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT BEGAN JAN
14TH CONTS AND WILL PEAK TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TUE WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING
AWAY. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC COLD POOL WHICH IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF
HWY 183. SO EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES TO CONT THERE WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU E OF HWY 281 AT SUNSET WILL GET
SHOVED E BY WAA...LEAVING VARIABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF M/CLOUDY SKIES...OVERALL IT SHOULD AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN P/CLOUDY.

ACCURATELY FCSTG HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWS WAS A STRUGGLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOS IS SURPRISINGLY MILD /30S/. LOWS
PROBABLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS THE
LOW-LVL RIDGE AXIS PASSES. THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

GUT SAYS WE MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

MON: FANTASTIC WARMTH BUT BREEZY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE ENJOYMENT.
WITH FULL SUN...USED A BLEND OF THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WHICH OFFERS 62-72F AND PUTS MID 60S INTO THE TRI-CITIES.

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL A THREAT S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE
WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MUCH OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ADVERTISED AT 850 MB WILL BE UNTAPPED AS WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY
DEEP MIXING...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD BE PUSHING 16C IN OUR
WEST ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...AND A BIT COOLER WITH THE GFS.
BECAUSE OF THE STUNTED MIXING...WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER WIND WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS DAY FEEL
THE BEST AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE  LITTLE WHILE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...
SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE AS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
LOCATION IN OUR EAST WILL HANG ONTO LIGHTER WINDS LONGER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR LOOKS REALLY DRY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WITH
THIS TROUGH/FRONT...AND CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE NO
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS COOLER AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND WE FALL WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...YET WE WILL MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT WE MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE OUR OVER 2 WEEK CONSECUTIVE STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON OUR HORIZON IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. I ACTUALLY BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REDUCED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. THE TRI-CITIES
MAY VERY WELL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND I
RELEGATED MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBS SHOW A DECK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. UNTIL THAT
INCREASE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS...AND WHILE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SINCE IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE TAF...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
DURING THE EVENING/LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 260549
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1149 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT BEGAN JAN
14TH CONTS AND WILL PEAK TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TUE WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING
AWAY. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC COLD POOL WHICH IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF
HWY 183. SO EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES TO CONT THERE WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU E OF HWY 281 AT SUNSET WILL GET
SHOVED E BY WAA...LEAVING VARIABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF M/CLOUDY SKIES...OVERALL IT SHOULD AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN P/CLOUDY.

ACCURATELY FCSTG HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWS WAS A STRUGGLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOS IS SURPRISINGLY MILD /30S/. LOWS
PROBABLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS THE
LOW-LVL RIDGE AXIS PASSES. THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

GUT SAYS WE MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

MON: FANTASTIC WARMTH BUT BREEZY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE ENJOYMENT.
WITH FULL SUN...USED A BLEND OF THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WHICH OFFERS 62-72F AND PUTS MID 60S INTO THE TRI-CITIES.

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL A THREAT S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE
WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MUCH OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ADVERTISED AT 850 MB WILL BE UNTAPPED AS WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY
DEEP MIXING...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD BE PUSHING 16C IN OUR
WEST ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...AND A BIT COOLER WITH THE GFS.
BECAUSE OF THE STUNTED MIXING...WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER WIND WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS DAY FEEL
THE BEST AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE  LITTLE WHILE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...
SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE AS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
LOCATION IN OUR EAST WILL HANG ONTO LIGHTER WINDS LONGER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR LOOKS REALLY DRY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WITH
THIS TROUGH/FRONT...AND CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE NO
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS COOLER AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND WE FALL WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...YET WE WILL MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT WE MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE OUR OVER 2 WEEK CONSECUTIVE STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON OUR HORIZON IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. I ACTUALLY BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REDUCED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. THE TRI-CITIES
MAY VERY WELL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND I
RELEGATED MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBS SHOW A DECK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING. UNTIL THAT
INCREASE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS...AND WHILE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SINCE IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE TAF...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
DURING THE EVENING/LATTER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT BEGAN JAN
14TH CONTS AND WILL PEAK TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TUE WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING
AWAY. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC COLD POOL WHICH IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF
HWY 183. SO EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES TO CONT THERE WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU E OF HWY 281 AT SUNSET WILL GET
SHOVED E BY WAA...LEAVING VARIABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF M/CLOUDY SKIES...OVERALL IT SHOULD AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN P/CLOUDY.

ACCURATELY FCSTG HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWS WAS A STRUGGLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOS IS SURPRISINGLY MILD /30S/. LOWS
PROBABLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS THE
LOW-LVL RIDGE AXIS PASSES. THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

GUT SAYS WE MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

MON: FANTASTIC WARMTH BUT BREEZY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE ENJOYMENT.
WITH FULL SUN...USED A BLEND OF THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WHICH OFFERS 62-72F AND PUTS MID 60S INTO THE TRI-CITIES.

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL A THREAT S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE
WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MUCH OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ADVERTISED AT 850 MB WILL BE UNTAPPED AS WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY
DEEP MIXING...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD BE PUSHING 16C IN OUR
WEST ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...AND A BIT COOLER WITH THE GFS.
BECAUSE OF THE STUNTED MIXING...WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER WIND WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS DAY FEEL
THE BEST AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE  LITTLE WHILE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...
SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE AS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
LOCATION IN OUR EAST WILL HANG ONTO LIGHTER WINDS LONGER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR LOOKS REALLY DRY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WITH
THIS TROUGH/FRONT...AND CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE NO
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS COOLER AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND WE FALL WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...YET WE WILL MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT WE MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE OUR OVER 2 WEEK CONSECUTIVE STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON OUR HORIZON IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. I ACTUALLY BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REDUCED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. THE TRI-CITIES
MAY VERY WELL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND I
RELEGATED MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN FROM AROUND DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING
AS WINDS AROUND 1000 FT AGL QUICKLY INCREASE TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST.
EVENTUALLY THE SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATER IN THE MORNING AND
TURN FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT BEGAN JAN
14TH CONTS AND WILL PEAK TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TUE WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING
AWAY. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC COLD POOL WHICH IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF
HWY 183. SO EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES TO CONT THERE WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU E OF HWY 281 AT SUNSET WILL GET
SHOVED E BY WAA...LEAVING VARIABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF M/CLOUDY SKIES...OVERALL IT SHOULD AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN P/CLOUDY.

ACCURATELY FCSTG HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWS WAS A STRUGGLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOS IS SURPRISINGLY MILD /30S/. LOWS
PROBABLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS THE
LOW-LVL RIDGE AXIS PASSES. THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

GUT SAYS WE MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

MON: FANTASTIC WARMTH BUT BREEZY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE ENJOYMENT.
WITH FULL SUN...USED A BLEND OF THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WHICH OFFERS 62-72F AND PUTS MID 60S INTO THE TRI-CITIES.

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL A THREAT S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE
WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MUCH OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ADVERTISED AT 850 MB WILL BE UNTAPPED AS WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY
DEEP MIXING...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD BE PUSHING 16C IN OUR
WEST ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...AND A BIT COOLER WITH THE GFS.
BECAUSE OF THE STUNTED MIXING...WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER WIND WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS DAY FEEL
THE BEST AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE  LITTLE WHILE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...
SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE AS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
LOCATION IN OUR EAST WILL HANG ONTO LIGHTER WINDS LONGER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR LOOKS REALLY DRY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WITH
THIS TROUGH/FRONT...AND CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE NO
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS COOLER AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND WE FALL WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...YET WE WILL MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT WE MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE OUR OVER 2 WEEK CONSECUTIVE STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON OUR HORIZON IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. I ACTUALLY BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REDUCED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. THE TRI-CITIES
MAY VERY WELL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND I
RELEGATED MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN FROM AROUND DAWN THROUGH LATE MORNING
AS WINDS AROUND 1000 FT AGL QUICKLY INCREASE TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST.
EVENTUALLY THE SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATER IN THE MORNING AND
TURN FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 252118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT BEGAN JAN
14TH CONTS AND WILL PEAK TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TUE WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING
AWAY. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC COLD POOL WHICH IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF
HWY 183. SO EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES TO CONT THERE WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU E OF HWY 281 AT SUNSET WILL GET
SHOVED E BY WAA...LEAVING VARIABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF M/CLOUDY SKIES...OVERALL IT SHOULD AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN P/CLOUDY.

ACCURATELY FCSTG HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWS WAS A STRUGGLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOS IS SURPRISINGLY MILD /30S/. LOWS
PROBABLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS THE
LOW-LVL RIDGE AXIS PASSES. THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

GUT SAYS WE MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

MON: FANTASTIC WARMTH BUT BREEZY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE ENJOYMENT.
WITH FULL SUN...USED A BLEND OF THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WHICH OFFERS 62-72F AND PUTS MID 60S INTO THE TRI-CITIES.

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL A THREAT S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE
WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MUCH OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ADVERTISED AT 850 MB WILL BE UNTAPPED AS WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY
DEEP MIXING...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD BE PUSHING 16C IN OUR
WEST ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...AND A BIT COOLER WITH THE GFS.
BECAUSE OF THE STUNTED MIXING...WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER WIND WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS DAY FEEL
THE BEST AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE  LITTLE WHILE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...
SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE AS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
LOCATION IN OUR EAST WILL HANG ONTO LIGHTER WINDS LONGER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR LOOKS REALLY DRY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WITH
THIS TROUGH/FRONT...AND CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE NO
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS COOLER AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND WE FALL WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...YET WE WILL MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT WE MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE OUR OVER 2 WEEK CONSECUTIVE STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON OUR HORIZON IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. I ACTUALLY BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REDUCED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. THE TRI-CITIES
MAY VERY WELL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND I
RELEGATED MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 252118
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...THIS PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT BEGAN JAN
14TH CONTS AND WILL PEAK TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY TUE WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING
AWAY. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CLIPPER WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC COLD POOL WHICH IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND E OF
HWY 183. SO EXPECT M/CLOUDY SKIES TO CONT THERE WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARD DECREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU E OF HWY 281 AT SUNSET WILL GET
SHOVED E BY WAA...LEAVING VARIABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF M/CLOUDY SKIES...OVERALL IT SHOULD AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN P/CLOUDY.

ACCURATELY FCSTG HOURLY TEMPS AND LOWS WAS A STRUGGLE AND
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. MOS IS SURPRISINGLY MILD /30S/. LOWS
PROBABLY OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS THE
LOW-LVL RIDGE AXIS PASSES. THEN WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW.

GUT SAYS WE MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH TEMP DROP THIS EVENING.

MON: FANTASTIC WARMTH BUT BREEZY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE ENJOYMENT.
WITH FULL SUN...USED A BLEND OF THE WARMEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
WHICH OFFERS 62-72F AND PUTS MID 60S INTO THE TRI-CITIES.

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER STILL A THREAT S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES FOR A COUPLE HRS IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE
WITH THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM. WE WILL
SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WATCHING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH...MUCH OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ADVERTISED AT 850 MB WILL BE UNTAPPED AS WE WILL NOT HAVE VERY
DEEP MIXING...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD BE PUSHING 16C IN OUR
WEST ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...AND A BIT COOLER WITH THE GFS.
BECAUSE OF THE STUNTED MIXING...WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN MONDAY...BUT LIGHTER WIND WILL PROBABLY MAKE THIS DAY FEEL
THE BEST AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL TAKE  LITTLE WHILE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...
SO MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS NICE AS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS.
LOCATION IN OUR EAST WILL HANG ONTO LIGHTER WINDS LONGER FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR LOOKS REALLY DRY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS WITH
THIS TROUGH/FRONT...AND CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE NO
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO OCCUR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS COOLER AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND WE FALL WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW...YET WE WILL MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND IN FACT WE MAY VERY
WELL CONTINUE OUR OVER 2 WEEK CONSECUTIVE STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON OUR HORIZON IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. I ACTUALLY BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND REDUCED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST. THE TRI-CITIES
MAY VERY WELL NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND I
RELEGATED MOST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251734 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY/TEMPS/WINDS. TEMPS WERE ALREADY
INFRINGING ON FCST HIGHS W OF HWY 183...IN FULL SUN. SO FCST HIGHS
WERE RAISED. E OF HWY 183 CLOUDS WILL IMPEDE FULL TEMP POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS SERVES AS THE 1ST DRAFT FOR THIS AFTN.

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY. HIGH PRES
WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

THIS AFTERNOON: PLENTY OF STRATOCU IN THE THERMAL TROF ALONG AND E
OF HWY 183. TEMPS WARMEST W OF HWY 183 IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. STILL
BREEZY BUT WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251734 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY/TEMPS/WINDS. TEMPS WERE ALREADY
INFRINGING ON FCST HIGHS W OF HWY 183...IN FULL SUN. SO FCST HIGHS
WERE RAISED. E OF HWY 183 CLOUDS WILL IMPEDE FULL TEMP POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS SERVES AS THE 1ST DRAFT FOR THIS AFTN.

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY. HIGH PRES
WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

THIS AFTERNOON: PLENTY OF STRATOCU IN THE THERMAL TROF ALONG AND E
OF HWY 183. TEMPS WARMEST W OF HWY 183 IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. STILL
BREEZY BUT WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251732
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY/TEMPS/WINDS. TEMPS WERE ALREADY
INFRINGING ON FCST HIGHS W OF HWY 183...IN FULL SUN. SO FCST HIGHS
WERE RAISED. E OF HWY 183 CLOUDS WILL IMPEDE FULL TEMP POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY. HIGH PRES
WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

THIS AFTERNOON: PLENTY OF STRATOCU IN THE THERMAL TROF ALONG AND E
OF HWY 183. TEMPS WARMEST W OF HWY 183 IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. STILL
BREEZY BUT WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251732
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY/TEMPS/WINDS. TEMPS WERE ALREADY
INFRINGING ON FCST HIGHS W OF HWY 183...IN FULL SUN. SO FCST HIGHS
WERE RAISED. E OF HWY 183 CLOUDS WILL IMPEDE FULL TEMP POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE / ERN USA TROF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TOMORROW WITH SOME SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE E PAC. THIS WILL
KEEP THE TRACK OF CLIPPERS E OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: LAST NIGHT/S CLIPPER WAS OVER THE OH VALLEY. HIGH PRES
WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
WAS ALREADY DIVING SE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THRU TONIGHT SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A SPECTACULAR MON.

THIS AFTERNOON: PLENTY OF STRATOCU IN THE THERMAL TROF ALONG AND E
OF HWY 183. TEMPS WARMEST W OF HWY 183 IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. STILL
BREEZY BUT WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: MVFR WILL BECOME VFR IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU 21Z AND THEN SUBSIDE. CONFIDENCE:
HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AND THEN ORGANIZE FROM
THE SW GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SW WINDS INCREASING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NW
14Z-16Z...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 251115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD.

A BAND OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKELY KGRI WILL
OBSERVE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS STRATUS AND ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...IT IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AT KEAR SOONER THAN KGRI. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...SUSTAINED AT 20-25KTS
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT DECREASING
TO AROUND 12KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND
IS THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS FOR AT
LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS CURRENTLY
STAND:

MONDAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 58
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 60

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 251115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD.

A BAND OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKELY KGRI WILL
OBSERVE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS STRATUS AND ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...IT IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AT KEAR SOONER THAN KGRI. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...SUSTAINED AT 20-25KTS
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT DECREASING
TO AROUND 12KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND
IS THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS FOR AT
LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS CURRENTLY
STAND:

MONDAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 58
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 60

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 251030
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS FOR AT
LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS CURRENTLY
STAND:

MONDAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 58
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 6

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 251030 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS FOR AT
LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS CURRENTLY
STAND:

MONDAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 58
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 60

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 251030 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS FOR AT
LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS CURRENTLY
STAND:

MONDAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 58
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 60

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 250938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHTEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 250938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHTEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 250938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHTEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 250938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHTEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...A STRONG CLIPPER RACES JUST E OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOTS
OF WIND IN ITS WAKE THRU TOMORROW...

ALOFT: NO SURPRISES...NW FLOW. AN EMBEDDED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF. A 130 M
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER WILL DIVE SE INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW. ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL SURGE THRU
HERE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVERHEAD LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LOTS OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
BUT SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN. WE SAW THE SPRINKLES AT VTN AT 1 PM.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PATCHES OF WAA SPRINKLES.

TONIGHT: WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
SCATTERED ABOUT AND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MEASURABLE SHWR N
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL CRANK BEHIND THE FRONT IN CAA.

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z MOS GUIDE AND 06Z/12Z MAV MOS
FOR WINDS. THIS BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO THE TRI-CITIES. DERIVED GUSTS WERE
INCREASED ABOVE THE GUST TOOL USING BUFKIT.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG THRU THE NIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR 10PM-10AM OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 10AM-
4PM OVER N-CNTRL KS.

SUN: WINDY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FORENOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS/STRATOCU IN THE CYCLONIC AIR/THERMAL TROF.
SPOTTY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LINGER E OF HWY 281. ABOUT 10F COOLER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTER AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
LARGER FEATURES...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SMALLER FEATURES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLACING US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING TO THE EAST...WITH SPEEDS
OF WELL OVER 100 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NEAR THE EXIT
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTOLYTIC BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY
STALL AND STILL BE LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...BUT WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST SHOULD BEGIN KICKING UP BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS INDICATES
AN RELATIVELY EARLY LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES PROBABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TO BE RIGHT UP FRONT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY LONG TERM UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SEASONABLY TYPICAL DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN INTO
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT RIDES OVER
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND
DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE DAMPENING RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING THE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE AS IT HAS
BEEN ESTABLISHED THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE DRY...BUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

BY LATE WORK WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES
RE- ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AMPLIFIED BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AN EMBEDDED
WEAKNESS WILL MOVE EAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT ENTERS THE BAJA. FOR
US...THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MEANS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR LATE
WORK WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THERE CAN CERTAINLY BE
PERTURBATIONS THAT COULD KICK UP A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT WE ARE
NOT GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG
TERM. A TROUGH AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND COULD INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS A MIX IN
OUR SOUTH...AS FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WE CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S/60S. A SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SUBSEQUENT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND STRONGER
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE MILD DAY
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/60S...AND THEN A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE COOLER
TREND CONTINUES AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF
PREDICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE MINUS 9C TO MINUS
15C RANGE. I RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MOST DAYS
UNTIL SATURDAY AS I STUCK TO CONSRAW FOR THE MOST PART...AS IT
TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH SITUATIONS WHERE WE ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS...I GENERALLY EDGED THE TEMPERATURE UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...USING THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING
POINT...EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY...WHERE I KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MONDAY COULD BE A NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SCOOT TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...SENDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WITH WIND SPEEDS TRENDING
HIGHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WE ARE LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...A STRONG CLIPPER RACES JUST E OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOTS
OF WIND IN ITS WAKE THRU TOMORROW...

ALOFT: NO SURPRISES...NW FLOW. AN EMBEDDED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF. A 130 M
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER WILL DIVE SE INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW. ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL SURGE THRU
HERE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVERHEAD LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LOTS OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
BUT SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN. WE SAW THE SPRINKLES AT VTN AT 1 PM.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PATCHES OF WAA SPRINKLES.

TONIGHT: WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
SCATTERED ABOUT AND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MEASURABLE SHWR N
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL CRANK BEHIND THE FRONT IN CAA.

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z MOS GUIDE AND 06Z/12Z MAV MOS
FOR WINDS. THIS BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO THE TRI-CITIES. DERIVED GUSTS WERE
INCREASED ABOVE THE GUST TOOL USING BUFKIT.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG THRU THE NIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR 10PM-10AM OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 10AM-
4PM OVER N-CNTRL KS.

SUN: WINDY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FORENOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS/STRATOCU IN THE CYCLONIC AIR/THERMAL TROF.
SPOTTY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LINGER E OF HWY 281. ABOUT 10F COOLER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTER AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
LARGER FEATURES...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SMALLER FEATURES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLACING US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING TO THE EAST...WITH SPEEDS
OF WELL OVER 100 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NEAR THE EXIT
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTOLYTIC BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY
STALL AND STILL BE LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...BUT WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST SHOULD BEGIN KICKING UP BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS INDICATES
AN RELATIVELY EARLY LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES PROBABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TO BE RIGHT UP FRONT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY LONG TERM UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SEASONABLY TYPICAL DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN INTO
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT RIDES OVER
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND
DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE DAMPENING RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING THE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE AS IT HAS
BEEN ESTABLISHED THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE DRY...BUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

BY LATE WORK WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES
RE- ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AMPLIFIED BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AN EMBEDDED
WEAKNESS WILL MOVE EAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT ENTERS THE BAJA. FOR
US...THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MEANS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR LATE
WORK WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THERE CAN CERTAINLY BE
PERTURBATIONS THAT COULD KICK UP A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT WE ARE
NOT GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG
TERM. A TROUGH AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND COULD INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS A MIX IN
OUR SOUTH...AS FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WE CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S/60S. A SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SUBSEQUENT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND STRONGER
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE MILD DAY
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/60S...AND THEN A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE COOLER
TREND CONTINUES AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF
PREDICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE MINUS 9C TO MINUS
15C RANGE. I RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MOST DAYS
UNTIL SATURDAY AS I STUCK TO CONSRAW FOR THE MOST PART...AS IT
TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH SITUATIONS WHERE WE ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS...I GENERALLY EDGED THE TEMPERATURE UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...USING THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING
POINT...EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY...WHERE I KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MONDAY COULD BE A NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SCOOT TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...SENDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WITH WIND SPEEDS TRENDING
HIGHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WE ARE LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 250041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...A STRONG CLIPPER RACES JUST E OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOTS
OF WIND IN ITS WAKE THRU TOMORROW...

ALOFT: NO SURPRISES...NW FLOW. AN EMBEDDED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF. A 130 M
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER WILL DIVE SE INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW. ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL SURGE THRU
HERE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVERHEAD LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LOTS OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
BUT SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN. WE SAW THE SPRINKLES AT VTN AT 1 PM.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PATCHES OF WAA SPRINKLES.

TONIGHT: WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
SCATTERED ABOUT AND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MEASURABLE SHWR N
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL CRANK BEHIND THE FRONT IN CAA.

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z MOS GUIDE AND 06Z/12Z MAV MOS
FOR WINDS. THIS BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO THE TRI-CITIES. DERIVED GUSTS WERE
INCREASED ABOVE THE GUST TOOL USING BUFKIT.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG THRU THE NIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR 10PM-10AM OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 10AM-
4PM OVER N-CNTRL KS.

SUN: WINDY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FORENOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS/STRATOCU IN THE CYCLONIC AIR/THERMAL TROF.
SPOTTY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LINGER E OF HWY 281. ABOUT 10F COOLER
THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTER AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
LARGER FEATURES...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SMALLER FEATURES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLACING US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING TO THE EAST...WITH SPEEDS
OF WELL OVER 100 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NEAR THE EXIT
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTOLYTIC BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY
STALL AND STILL BE LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...BUT WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST SHOULD BEGIN KICKING UP BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS INDICATES
AN RELATIVELY EARLY LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES PROBABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TO BE RIGHT UP FRONT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY LONG TERM UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SEASONABLY TYPICAL DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN INTO
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT RIDES OVER
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND
DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE DAMPENING RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING THE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE AS IT HAS
BEEN ESTABLISHED THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE DRY...BUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

BY LATE WORK WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES
RE- ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AMPLIFIED BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AN EMBEDDED
WEAKNESS WILL MOVE EAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT ENTERS THE BAJA. FOR
US...THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MEANS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR LATE
WORK WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THERE CAN CERTAINLY BE
PERTURBATIONS THAT COULD KICK UP A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT WE ARE
NOT GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG
TERM. A TROUGH AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND COULD INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS A MIX IN
OUR SOUTH...AS FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WE CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S/60S. A SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SUBSEQUENT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND STRONGER
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE MILD DAY
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/60S...AND THEN A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE COOLER
TREND CONTINUES AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF
PREDICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE MINUS 9C TO MINUS
15C RANGE. I RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MOST DAYS
UNTIL SATURDAY AS I STUCK TO CONSRAW FOR THE MOST PART...AS IT
TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH SITUATIONS WHERE WE ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS...I GENERALLY EDGED THE TEMPERATURE UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...USING THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING
POINT...EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY...WHERE I KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE WIND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT AND THESE
SHOULD HAVE LARGELY MOVED EAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MONDAY COULD BE A NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SCOOT TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...SENDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WITH WIND SPEEDS TRENDING
HIGHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WE ARE LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 242115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...A STRONG CLIPPER RACES JUST E OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOTS
OF WIND IN ITS WAKE THRU TOMORROW...

ALOFT: NO SURPRISES...NW FLOW. AN EMBEDDED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF. A 130 M
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER WILL DIVE SE INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW. ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL SURGE THRU
HERE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVERHEAD LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LOTS OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
BUT SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN. WE SAW THE SPRINKLES AT VTN AT 1 PM.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PATCHES OF WAA SPRINKLES.

TONIGHT: WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
SCATTERED ABOUT AND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MEASURABLE SHWR N
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL CRANK BEHIND THE FRONT IN CAA.

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z MOS GUIDE AND 06Z/12Z MAV MOS
FOR WINDS. THIS BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO THE TRI-CITIES. DERIVED GUSTS WERE
INCREASED ABOVE THE GUST TOOL USING BUFKIT.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG THRU THE NIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR 10PM-10AM OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 10AM-
4PM OVER N-CNTRL KS.

SUN: WINDY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FORENOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS/STRATOCU IN THE CYCLONIC AIR/THERMAL TROF.
SPOTTY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LINGER E OF HWY 281. ABOUT 10F COOLER
THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTER AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
LARGER FEATURES...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SMALLER FEATURES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLACING US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING TO THE EAST...WITH SPEEDS
OF WELL OVER 100 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NEAR THE EXIT
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTOLYTIC BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY
STALL AND STILL BE LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...BUT WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST SHOULD BEGIN KICKING UP BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS INDICATES
AN RELATIVELY EARLY LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES PROBABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TO BE RIGHT UP FRONT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY LONG TERM UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SEASONABLY TYPICAL DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN INTO
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT RIDES OVER
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND
DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE DAMPENING RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING THE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE AS IT HAS
BEEN ESTABLISHED THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE DRY...BUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

BY LATE WORK WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES
RE- ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AMPLIFIED BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AN EMBEDDED
WEAKNESS WILL MOVE EAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT ENTERS THE BAJA. FOR
US...THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MEANS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR LATE
WORK WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THERE CAN CERTAINLY BE
PERTURBATIONS THAT COULD KICK UP A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT WE ARE
NOT GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG
TERM. A TROUGH AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND COULD INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS A MIX IN
OUR SOUTH...AS FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WE CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S/60S. A SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SUBSEQUENT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND STRONGER
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE MILD DAY
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/60S...AND THEN A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE COOLER
TREND CONTINUES AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF
PREDICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE MINUS 9C TO MINUS
15C RANGE. I RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MOST DAYS
UNTIL SATURDAY AS I STUCK TO CONSRAW FOR THE MOST PART...AS IT
TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH SITUATIONS WHERE WE ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS...I GENERALLY EDGED THE TEMPERATURE UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...USING THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING
POINT...EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY...WHERE I KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...

THIS AFTERNOON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. W WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME GUSTY AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS.
CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CIGS LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND
4K FT AND COULD TURN SCT AT TIMES. PATCHES OF VFR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 45 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: MVFR STRATUS CIGS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
45 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM AS THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON CIG
HEIGHT. IT COULD BE AS LOW AS 1500 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MONDAY COULD BE A NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SCOOT TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...SENDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WITH WIND SPEEDS TRENDING
HIGHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WE ARE LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 242115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...A STRONG CLIPPER RACES JUST E OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOTS
OF WIND IN ITS WAKE THRU TOMORROW...

ALOFT: NO SURPRISES...NW FLOW. AN EMBEDDED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN USA LONGWAVE TROF. A 130 M
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER WILL DIVE SE INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW. ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL SURGE THRU
HERE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT OVERHEAD LATE TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LOTS OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
BUT SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN. WE SAW THE SPRINKLES AT VTN AT 1 PM.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PATCHES OF WAA SPRINKLES.

TONIGHT: WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
SCATTERED ABOUT AND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MEASURABLE SHWR N
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. WINDS WILL CRANK BEHIND THE FRONT IN CAA.

USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z MOS GUIDE AND 06Z/12Z MAV MOS
FOR WINDS. THIS BRINGS A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 MPH
FROM THE SANDHILLS DOWN TO THE TRI-CITIES. DERIVED GUSTS WERE
INCREASED ABOVE THE GUST TOOL USING BUFKIT.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG THRU THE NIGHT.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR 10PM-10AM OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 10AM-
4PM OVER N-CNTRL KS.

SUN: WINDY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FORENOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL STRATUS/STRATOCU IN THE CYCLONIC AIR/THERMAL TROF.
SPOTTY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES LINGER E OF HWY 281. ABOUT 10F COOLER
THAN TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTER AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
LARGER FEATURES...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SMALLER FEATURES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLACING US WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING TO THE EAST...WITH SPEEDS
OF WELL OVER 100 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NEAR THE EXIT
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTOLYTIC BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY
STALL AND STILL BE LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...BUT WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST SHOULD BEGIN KICKING UP BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS INDICATES
AN RELATIVELY EARLY LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES PROBABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

TO BE RIGHT UP FRONT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY LONG TERM UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SEASONABLY TYPICAL DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. A CLOSED LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BE DRAWN INTO
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT RIDES OVER
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND
DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE DAMPENING RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING THE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE AS IT HAS
BEEN ESTABLISHED THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE DRY...BUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

BY LATE WORK WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES
RE- ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AMPLIFIED BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AN EMBEDDED
WEAKNESS WILL MOVE EAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND BY THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT ENTERS THE BAJA. FOR
US...THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MEANS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR LATE
WORK WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THERE CAN CERTAINLY BE
PERTURBATIONS THAT COULD KICK UP A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT WE ARE
NOT GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG
TERM. A TROUGH AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WILL INTRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND COULD INDUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...PERHAPS A MIX IN
OUR SOUTH...AS FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WE CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S/60S. A SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SUBSEQUENT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND STRONGER
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE MILD DAY
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/60S...AND THEN A COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE COOLER
TREND CONTINUES AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF
PREDICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE MINUS 9C TO MINUS
15C RANGE. I RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FAIR AMOUNT FOR MOST DAYS
UNTIL SATURDAY AS I STUCK TO CONSRAW FOR THE MOST PART...AS IT
TENDS TO DO BETTER WITH SITUATIONS WHERE WE ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR HIGHS...I GENERALLY EDGED THE TEMPERATURE UP A COUPLE
DEGREES...USING THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING
POINT...EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY...WHERE I KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...

THIS AFTERNOON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. W WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME GUSTY AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS.
CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CIGS LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND
4K FT AND COULD TURN SCT AT TIMES. PATCHES OF VFR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 45 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: MVFR STRATUS CIGS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
45 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM AS THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON CIG
HEIGHT. IT COULD BE AS LOW AS 1500 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MONDAY COULD BE A NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD STILL BE QUITE STRONG. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SCOOT TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...SENDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WITH WIND SPEEDS TRENDING
HIGHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. WE ARE LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM ELWOOD NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 241753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1153 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. THIS
CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOCU ARE THICK AND NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING.
THIS IS RETARDING TEMP RISES AND WILL NOT PERMIT REACHING FCST
HIGHS. SO HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGS. ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FURTHER.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SWATH OF BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW.
WHILE SOME OF THIS WILL THIN AND BREAK-UP...BELIEVE SKIES WILL
TURN M/CLOUDY. SO FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND WINDS FROM THE 4 AM FCST LOOK GOOD. W-WNW
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS ARE 34 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC ON THE
12Z LBF SOUNDING.

BASED ON THE LBF/DDC SOUNDINGS...DWPTS WERE NUDGED LOWER IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME.

WE WILL BE MONITORING HOURLY TEMPS. WE ATTEMPTED TO RECONSTRUCT
THE TEMP CURVES FOR A MORE RAPID RISE...ESPECIALLY S AND W OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...

THIS AFTERNOON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 8K FT. W WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME GUSTY AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS.
CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CIGS LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND
4K FT AND COULD TURN SCT AT TIMES. PATCHES OF VFR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 45 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SUN THRU 18Z: MVFR STRATUS CIGS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
45 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM AS THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON CIG
HEIGHT. IT COULD BE AS LOW AS 1500 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 241458
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
858 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SWATH OF BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW.
WHILE SOME OF THIS WILL THIN AND BREAK-UP...BELIEVE SKIES WILL
TURN M/CLOUDY. SO FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND WINDS FROM THE 4 AM FCST LOOK GOOD. W-WNW
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS ARE 34 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC ON THE
12Z LBF SOUNDING.

BASED ON THE LBF/DDC SOUNDINGS...DWPTS WERE NUDGED LOWER IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME.

WE WILL BE MONITORING HOURLY TEMPS. WE ATTEMPTED TO RECONSTRUCT
THE TEMP CURVES FOR A MORE RAPID RISE...ESPECIALLY S AND W OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE STARTING AT 04Z.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE AT OR ABOVE 15000FT
AGL...CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE DO
SUGGEST A CEILING IN THE 2000-3000FT AGL RANGE COULD BE REALIZED
SUNDAY MORNING BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
STARTING THE TAF PERIOD SUSTAINED AT AROUND 11KTS...A MARKED
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NOTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT 20-23KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN EVEN
STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING AS
SIGNIFICANT AS IT COULD BE...THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 04Z. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 241458
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
858 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SWATH OF BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW.
WHILE SOME OF THIS WILL THIN AND BREAK-UP...BELIEVE SKIES WILL
TURN M/CLOUDY. SO FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS AND WINDS FROM THE 4 AM FCST LOOK GOOD. W-WNW
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY. WINDS ARE 34 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC ON THE
12Z LBF SOUNDING.

BASED ON THE LBF/DDC SOUNDINGS...DWPTS WERE NUDGED LOWER IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME.

WE WILL BE MONITORING HOURLY TEMPS. WE ATTEMPTED TO RECONSTRUCT
THE TEMP CURVES FOR A MORE RAPID RISE...ESPECIALLY S AND W OF THE
TRI-CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE STARTING AT 04Z.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE AT OR ABOVE 15000FT
AGL...CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE DO
SUGGEST A CEILING IN THE 2000-3000FT AGL RANGE COULD BE REALIZED
SUNDAY MORNING BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
STARTING THE TAF PERIOD SUSTAINED AT AROUND 11KTS...A MARKED
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NOTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT 20-23KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN EVEN
STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING AS
SIGNIFICANT AS IT COULD BE...THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 04Z. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 241056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
456 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE STARTING AT 04Z.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE AT OR ABOVE 15000FT
AGL...CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE DO
SUGGEST A CEILING IN THE 2000-3000FT AGL RANGE COULD BE REALIZED
SUNDAY MORNING BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
STARTING THE TAF PERIOD SUSTAINED AT AROUND 11KTS...A MARKED
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NOTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT 20-23KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN EVEN
STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING AS
SIGNIFICANT AS IT COULD BE...THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 04Z. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 241056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
456 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE STARTING AT 04Z.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE AT OR ABOVE 15000FT
AGL...CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE DO
SUGGEST A CEILING IN THE 2000-3000FT AGL RANGE COULD BE REALIZED
SUNDAY MORNING BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
STARTING THE TAF PERIOD SUSTAINED AT AROUND 11KTS...A MARKED
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NOTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT 20-23KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN EVEN
STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING AS
SIGNIFICANT AS IT COULD BE...THERE IS CERTAINLY STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF BEGINNING AT 04Z. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 241024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING 03Z...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 241024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WITH A CONTINUED VERY LIMITED RISK OF PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY OF
THE MEASURABLE VARIETY) THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE EVER-GROWING STRING OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY DAY WILL BE BALMY BY ANY
MEANS...WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING THE ONGOING STREAK OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST 16 DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY JAN. 30TH. JUST BEYOND THIS (AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST)...THERE ARE STILL DECENT SIGNS OF A MORE
WINTRY CHILL-DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD VERY WELL END THIS
STREAK. FOR THOSE WHO DIDN/T CATCH THIS NOTE YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING THE LONGEST STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
JANUARY DAYS SINCE THE THE RECORD-WARM JANUARY 2006...WHICH LAYS
CLAIM TO THE RECORD BOOKS AT PLACES SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS.
THAT MONTH...GRAND ISLAND AVERAGED AN INCREDIBLE 13.3 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE MONTH WAS ABOVE AVERAGE!

GETTING BACK ON TRACK WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST...THIS LATEST
ISSUANCE REALLY ONLY FEATURES ONE "NOTABLE" CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS...AND THAT CENTERS AROUND THE FACT THAT SUNDAY CONTINUES
TO TREND CHILLIER AND LESS-PLEASANT GIVEN RATHER BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS (ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST
AREAS). FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY HAVE NOW
BEEN LOWERED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO FEATURE
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S. THEN
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURS-FRI AS HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
40S...BUT AGAIN THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE LATE-
JANUARY HIGH OF 35-40.

PRECIPITATION-WISE THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO A HANDFUL OF FAR
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REMAINING DRY CWA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP ON EYE ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE
AROUND MID-WEEK THAT COULD TRY TO DROP SOME MORE FLURRY/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW POTENTIAL BUT THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY...SO A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...HAVE INTRODUCED A
"NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. PLEASE SEE THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW DIVING INTO GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24 HOUR
CHUNKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...THOSE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE A FEW DAYS BEHIND ON FORECAST TRENDS MAY BE IN FOR A
BIT OF AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE HERE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS AND
BRISK WIND. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE DAY WILL
START WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERLY-FLOW CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB/KS/IA/MO AREA...POWERED BY A STOUT
UPPER JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 150KT AT THE 300
MILLIBAR LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START THE DAY WELL-EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDER AREA...BEFORE DEPARTING
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION BY DAYS END ALONG WITH
THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM. OF GREATEST CERTAINTY IS THAT IT WILL BE
A RATHER WINDY DAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-40 MPH. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE STRONG UPPER JET
STREAK TO AT LEAST PROMOTE SOME SPRINKLE AND/OR FLURRY ACTIVITY
MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR EASTERN CWA IN NEBRASKA...AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-DAY. CERTAINLY THE BETTER
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE IA BORDER AND POINTS EAST. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT THE AFTERNOON VOID OF ANY PRECIP
MENTION....ALTHOUGH A POTENTIALLY DENSE LOWER STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER
HAS BEEN RAISED INTO PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST
PLACES...BUT THIS COULD ACTUALLY END UP BEING MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY-
CLOUDY IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND BACK-DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING IN...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ANOTHER 6 DEGREES OR SO FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW
THOUGH...HAVE HIGHS AIMED LOW 40S-LOW 50S FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT ITS AN
INTERESTING TEMPERATURE SITUATION AS WELL...AS RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT. THIS ARGUES FAIRLY CONVINCINGLY FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
TEMPERATURE-RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS PROBABLY ACHIEVED
BY/NEAR MIDNIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE LOWS...STILL AIMING
MOST AREAS NEAR-30.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST FOLKS HERE IS
THAT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE BAD NEWS THAT
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SUNDAY...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...ALMOST ASSURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHWEST. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONTINUED QUITE MILD...BUT APPEARS THAT
TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT SHORT OF THOSE ON MONDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
LESS-FAVORABLE MIXING AS SURFACE BREEZES TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THESE HIGHS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST NEB ZONES WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AND KS ZONES LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY THE FINAL VERY
MILD DAY OF THIS STRETCH...AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
AGAIN NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT
AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-63 RANGE. CONFIDENCE WANES
SLIGHTLY IN THE DRY FORECAST DURING THESE 24 HOURS...AS ALTHOUGH
THEY DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS BRING A RATHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD MAYBE PROMOTE SOME MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE
PRECIP. SOMETHING TO WATCH AS IT GETS CLOSER. OF GREATER CERTAINTY
IS THAT A DECENTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY
FORECAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS...BUT IT WILL MOST-DEFINITELY BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS HERE...RANGING FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO
NEAR-50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY DAYTIME...AS USUAL AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE
A BIT...BUT IT AT LEAST STILL APPEARS DRY. TEMP-WISE...THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMS HIGHS INTO THE 40-45
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS IT COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST
VALUES. NO MATTER WHAT FRIDAY YIELDS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR IS PROBABLY IN STORE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING 03Z...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 240933
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING 03Z...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 240933
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
CONUS COAST...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND FINALLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR
31000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER ONTARIO
AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS ALSO NOTED DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-
LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...THUS ALLOWING
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

DPVA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
WILL PROVIDE INCREASING OMEGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE...GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...THUS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE INCREASING OMEGA VALUES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OMEGA WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY OMEGA FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CLIP FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AND EVEN WENT AS FAR AS A ~20% POP FOR A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW 06-12Z AS OMEGA VALUES MAX OUT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS.
AGAIN...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS REALIZED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD SNOW PRODUCTION BE REALIZED.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING BOUNDARY-
LAYER HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT POST-FROPA WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE ORDER OF 30-35UBAR/KM WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY
MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING A MUCH WEAKER WIND FIELD WHEN
COMPARED TO MAV/GFS GUIDANCE...AROUND 14KTS LOWER FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AM INCLINED TO PLAY CLOSER TO THE
TRADITIONALLY-WINDIER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 16-26KTS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND A
WEAKER WIND FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE SUSTAINED WIND...THE
GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS RESPECTABLE AS WELL. FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ARE SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING BY SUGGESTING A BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEIGHT TO AROUND 4000FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE 1000-2000FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT...WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE INCLUSION OF A 50-55KT WIND NEAR THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASSUMING SOME LOSS IN MAGNITUDE DURING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTS A GUST POTENTIAL NEAR
40KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTH.

WITH FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...TODAYS BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR MASS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD A WARMER DAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COOLER AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TRULY MOVING IN...THUS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURE
READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 30S...PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST AND A
TOUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING 03Z...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 60S AND DEW POINT READINGS REMAINING IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 23-25% RANGE NOW SEEM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND
23Z. IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND OF ~20MPH WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO OSBORNE.

JUMPING AHEAD A FEW DAYS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND TIME FOR REFINEMENT...CONCERN IS
INCREASING FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN SHOWING ITS HAND
MAINLY WITHIN A HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELWOOD-OSBORNE. WITHIN THIS AREA...THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES AT LEAST A FEW-HOURS OVERLAP OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT...WILL BE INTRODUCING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN CASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TREND FURTHER DOWNWARD BELOW 20 PERCENT
(CRITICAL THRESHOLD).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT/PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 240548
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS NEARLY MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A
LITTLE QPF INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWEST LAYER
TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO GET RAIN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VERY LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORESEEN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE
SHOWING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH NOTABLY COLDER
AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN TO NEAR -10C WITH THIS NEXT SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WHICH IF REALIZED...WILL LIKELY MARK A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

STARTING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO OPTED TO KEEP ONLY A SPRINKLE MENTION
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURE WISE...WILL ALSO SEE A MODEST DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
FORECAST TO DROP 4-7C BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. WHILE THIS WILL
STILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
WILL LIKELY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
ACCOMPANYING BRISK WINDS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. AS THE MAIN RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES THEN BREAKS DOWN MID/LATE WEEK...EXPECT A COOLER
AIRMASS TO INITIALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT SCOPE OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING 03Z...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT




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