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000
FXUS63 KGID 191126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AT KEAR...AND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AT
KGRI.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z. THIS STRATUS IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS A TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT KEAR FIRST...AROUND
18Z...AND AT KGRI LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CEILING...SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BR COULD ALSO BE
OBSERVED...BUT AT THIS TIME NOTHING BELOW 6SM IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 5-8KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 191126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AT KEAR...AND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AT
KGRI.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z. THIS STRATUS IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS A TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT KEAR FIRST...AROUND
18Z...AND AT KGRI LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CEILING...SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BR COULD ALSO BE
OBSERVED...BUT AT THIS TIME NOTHING BELOW 6SM IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 5-8KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 190513
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE FORECAST. THE SATURATED CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS LESS THAN 1KM
AND THE LOW LEVEL MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ONLY MODEL STILL HINTING AT
DRIZZLE WAS THE 18Z NAM...OTHERWISE IT JUST APPEARS RATHER
UNLIKELY. OUR PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY KIND
OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT AREAS WEST OF HWY 183 WILL
NEED TO POSSIBLY WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 190513
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE FORECAST. THE SATURATED CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS LESS THAN 1KM
AND THE LOW LEVEL MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ONLY MODEL STILL HINTING AT
DRIZZLE WAS THE 18Z NAM...OTHERWISE IT JUST APPEARS RATHER
UNLIKELY. OUR PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY KIND
OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT AREAS WEST OF HWY 183 WILL
NEED TO POSSIBLY WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 190147
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE FORECAST. THE SATURATED CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS LESS THAN 1KM
AND THE LOW LEVEL MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ONLY MODEL STILL HINTING AT
DRIZZLE WAS THE 18Z NAM...OTHERWISE IT JUST APPEARS RATHER
UNLIKELY. OUR PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY KIND
OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT AREAS WEST OF HWY 183 WILL
NEED TO POSSIBLY WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPECT POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
LOWER WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND CEILINGS MAY GO AS LOW AS LIFR. DENSE FOG APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF KGRI AND KEAR...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THEN SHOULD LIKELY DO NO BETTER THAN MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 190147
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE FORECAST. THE SATURATED CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS LESS THAN 1KM
AND THE LOW LEVEL MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ONLY MODEL STILL HINTING AT
DRIZZLE WAS THE 18Z NAM...OTHERWISE IT JUST APPEARS RATHER
UNLIKELY. OUR PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY KIND
OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT AREAS WEST OF HWY 183 WILL
NEED TO POSSIBLY WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPECT POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
LOWER WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND CEILINGS MAY GO AS LOW AS LIFR. DENSE FOG APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF KGRI AND KEAR...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THEN SHOULD LIKELY DO NO BETTER THAN MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 190147
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT OUT
OF THE FORECAST. THE SATURATED CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS LESS THAN 1KM
AND THE LOW LEVEL MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE ONLY MODEL STILL HINTING AT
DRIZZLE WAS THE 18Z NAM...OTHERWISE IT JUST APPEARS RATHER
UNLIKELY. OUR PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE STRATUS DECK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY KIND
OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT AREAS WEST OF HWY 183 WILL
NEED TO POSSIBLY WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPECT POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
LOWER WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND CEILINGS MAY GO AS LOW AS LIFR. DENSE FOG APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF KGRI AND KEAR...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THEN SHOULD LIKELY DO NO BETTER THAN MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 190022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPECT POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
LOWER WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND CEILINGS MAY GO AS LOW AS LIFR. DENSE FOG APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF KGRI AND KEAR...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THEN SHOULD LIKELY DO NO BETTER THAN MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 190022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPECT POOR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
LOWER WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND CEILINGS MAY GO AS LOW AS LIFR. DENSE FOG APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN WEST OF KGRI AND KEAR...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN THEN SHOULD LIKELY DO NO BETTER THAN MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 182113
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO BE SHORT
LIVED...WITH CIGS DROPPING BY DOWN TO IFR LEVELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THE TIMING OF THIS IS
DIFFICULT...BUT THINK IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 18/22Z...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATING CIGS ALONG WITH SOME BR OR EVEN DZ POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 182113
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO IN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MOVING IN AT MID LEVELS...THE SURFACE INVERSION HAS ONLY
STRENGTHENED THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE TO NO MIXING HAS
OCCURRED...PREVENTING THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK FROM ERODING. AS
A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN THE RULE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GENERAL AIRMASS...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL NOT CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE INSULATING CLOUD COVER TO HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THESE COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT THAN IT OTHERWISE
COULD FEEL...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALL
THIS SAID...THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS LIES
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE
IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE COMBINED WITH MODEST BULK
SHEAR VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME REMOVING THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE
FORECAST DESPITE ITS APPARENT LACK OF ITS APPEARANCE UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...THE QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE RAW VALUES OF BULK SHEAR ARE A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS...SO KEPT THE SMALL
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST DESPITE ITS SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY.
DID...HOWEVER...FINE TUNE THE TIMING AND LOCATION A BIT PER LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...THERE IS ALSO A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO OUR WEST. BOTH
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WESTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE FORECAST...WITH NO MENTION OF ANY DENSE FOG AS THINK
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PATTERN: THIS FCST MAINTAINS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH 24 HRS AGO.
THE UKMET/GEM/GFS/EC AND THE GEM/GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONT IN
UNISON ON THE LONGWAVE FLOW. AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PAC
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO N AMERICA. A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THIS WILL FORCE A PIECE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP SW OF CA. THIS WILL RAISE
HEIGHTS ALONG THE W COAST AND RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN USA.

A POTENTIAL FCST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE WRN USA CHRISTMAS DAY. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC /PRIOR TO ITS
12Z RUN/ AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH DEEPER WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE
FLATTER...A DIFF OF 250-300 METERS. THIS COULD BE GFS/EC BOTH
EXHIBITING THEIR BIASES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE IT
WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 12Z EC CAME IN FLATTER LIKE THE
GFS BUT PROBABLY IS A ONE-RUN ABERRATION.

ALOFT: LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU SUN WITH SOME
INCONSEQUENTIAL RIPPLES PASSING THRU...AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS
ALONG THE W COAST. SUN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CREST THE RIDGE
IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVE JET MAX. THIS
TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND CLOSE OFF MON. NW
FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED. HEIGHTS RISE WED WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OVER THE WRN USA. THE DEPTH/STRENGTH WILL
DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WX CHRISTMAS DAY...IE A SLOWER OR FASTER
SOLUTION. ALSO OF IMPORTANCE IS WHERE WILL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR BE? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.

SURFACE: A WARM FRONT WILL FORM SAT-SUN AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER
ALBERTA. THE LOW WILL DIVE SE INTO NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT
INTO IA MON BEFORE HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WED. A WARM FRONT WILL FORM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS CHRISTMAS WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STRATUS.
EC/GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IT WILL DECREASE...BUT A WARM
FRONT IS FCST TO DEVELOP AND STRATUS WOULD BE SUPPORTED ON THE
STABLE/COOL SIDE. FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS. THE SKY FCST IS TROUBLESOME AND COULD RESULT IN LARGE
ERRORS IN TEMPS...WHICH HINGE ON SKIES CLEARING W OF HWY 281. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE WHICH REALLY DROPPED TEMPS OUT W.

SAT: ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE STRATUS IS. CLOUDY VS SUNNY. COLD VS
WARM. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

SUN: PROBABLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...
IF STRATUS IS NOT A LINGERING ISSUE. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER S-
CNTRL NEB?

SUN NIGHT: THE LEE TROF HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS THE LOW
DIVES INTO MN. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A COUPLE LIGHT
SHWRS.

MON: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A FEW WRAP AROUND SHWRS?

TUE: COLD SECTOR. NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WINDY AS 24 HRS BECAUSE HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW.

WED: AM NOT BUYING THE GFS TAKING A CLIPPER TO THE N OF THE FCST
AREA...BUT THE EC SNEAKING SOMETHING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FROM
PLAUSIBLE AND THIS COULD BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS IS NOT A LOCK.

CHRISTMAS DAY: LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A WARM FRONT FORMING/
STRENGTHENING. EXPECT A WAA PATTERN TO DEVELOP...BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND LOCATION OF THE LOW/FRONT WILL BE KEY IN SUBSEQUENT
SENSIBLE WX. SUGGEST ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS KEEP AN EYE ON THE FCST.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONT TO INDICATE A TRANSITION BACK TO THE
PATTERN OF NOV LATE MONTH...WITH A RIDGE OVER AK AND ARCTIC CHILL
RETURNING. IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER AFTER CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO BE SHORT
LIVED...WITH CIGS DROPPING BY DOWN TO IFR LEVELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THE TIMING OF THIS IS
DIFFICULT...BUT THINK IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 18/22Z...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATING CIGS ALONG WITH SOME BR OR EVEN DZ POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 181759
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AT 9 AM CST. THE STORM SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW TO OUR LOCAL KANSAS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE REGION...AND WHILE A LIGHT
FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO
MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO BE SHORT
LIVED...WITH CIGS DROPPING BY DOWN TO IFR LEVELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...THE TIMING OF THIS IS
DIFFICULT...BUT THINK IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 18/22Z...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATING CIGS ALONG WITH SOME BR OR EVEN DZ POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 181450
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
850 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AT 9 AM CST. THE STORM SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW TO OUR LOCAL KANSAS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE REGION...AND WHILE A LIGHT
FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

YET AGAIN...THE PRIMARY ISSUE DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
CEILING TRENDS...AS ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT AT LEAST
AN MVFR (AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST BRIEFLY IFR) CEILING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A
ROGUE FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BOTH THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT
CURRENTLY WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT/MVFR FOG MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT THIS WITH A
LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY GROUP. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL
NOT BE A MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS
FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 181450
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
850 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AT 9 AM CST. THE STORM SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW TO OUR LOCAL KANSAS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IS EXITING THE REGION...AND WHILE A LIGHT
FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

YET AGAIN...THE PRIMARY ISSUE DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
CEILING TRENDS...AS ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT AT LEAST
AN MVFR (AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST BRIEFLY IFR) CEILING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A
ROGUE FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BOTH THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT
CURRENTLY WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT/MVFR FOG MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT THIS WITH A
LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY GROUP. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL
NOT BE A MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS
FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 181215
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

YET AGAIN...THE PRIMARY ISSUE DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
CEILING TRENDS...AS ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT AT LEAST
AN MVFR (AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST BRIEFLY IFR) CEILING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A
ROGUE FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BOTH THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT
CURRENTLY WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT/MVFR FOG MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT THIS WITH A
LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY GROUP. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL
NOT BE A MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS
FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 181215
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

YET AGAIN...THE PRIMARY ISSUE DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
CEILING TRENDS...AS ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT AT LEAST
AN MVFR (AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST BRIEFLY IFR) CEILING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A
ROGUE FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BOTH THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT
CURRENTLY WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT/MVFR FOG MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT THIS WITH A
LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY GROUP. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL
NOT BE A MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS
FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 181215
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

YET AGAIN...THE PRIMARY ISSUE DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
CEILING TRENDS...AS ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT AT LEAST
AN MVFR (AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST BRIEFLY IFR) CEILING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A
ROGUE FLURRY OR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BOTH THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT
CURRENTLY WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WILL ALSO HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT/MVFR FOG MAINLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY HINTED AT THIS WITH A
LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY GROUP. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL
NOT BE A MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS
FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 181100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 181100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 181100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 181100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WITH THE ONGOING...REASONABLY "MINOR" SNOW EVENT SEEMINGLY
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THESE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE
IS PROBABLY NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER TO
WORRY ABOUT OVER THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE ONE
GLARING CAVEAT INVOLVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
BOTH IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ITS OCCURRENCE ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME NO
IMPACTFUL GLAZE ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES SKY
COVER/TEMPS...AND UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
HAVE LARGELY GONE 7-8 DAYS NOW WITHOUT SEEING SUNSHINE...TODAY
PROBABLY DOESN/T OFFER MUCH HOPE IT APPEARS.

AS OF THIS WRITING AROUND 1030Z/430AM...DARE WE SAY THAT THIS SNOW
EVENT HAS SEEMINGLY WORKED OUT PRETTY DARN WELL VERSUS FORECASTED
EXPECTATIONS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO SOME EVENTS). ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL
OBSERVER TOTALS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST 7-8 AM...LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH FROM AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT THIS MORNING INDICATES
THAT THE 3 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES
(OSBORNE/JEWELL/MITCHELL) LIKELY AVERAGED AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA...TOTALS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH SEEM TO BE THE NORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEB CWA COUNTIES SUCH AS
NUCKOLLS/THAYER/FILLMORE...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A 2-INCH REPORT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. FARTHER NORTHWEST...THE TRI-CITIES AREA
(INCLUDING HERE AT THE WFO) HAS RECEIVED WELL UNDER ONE-HALF INCH
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED
DUSTING EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITHIN THE CWA.
AGAIN...PRETTY DARN CLOSE TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS YESTERDAY...AS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS.
AS OF YET...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY ONGOING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE CWA...BUT THE LOWEST CEILINGS THAT MIGHT SUPPORT THIS
ARE LARGELY JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB TOWARD NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA...WHILE
UPSTREAM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST IS PROMOTING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HELPED LESSEN THE
IMPACT OF THIS SNOW EVENT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN HOLDING THINGS WELL-ABOVE MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA LIKELY DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE LOW 20S THIS
MORNING.

FORECAST WISE AND STARTING WITH EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST
PATCHY/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOWS ITS HAND YET THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-DEPARTING SNOW. SPEAKING OF THE SNOW...BY
6-7 AM EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE SNOW FREE...WITH
MAYBE ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE
ENDING COMPLETELY BY MID-MORNING. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...ALL BUT
ASSURING THE END OF MEASURABLE WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PONDERED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AS DENDRITIC
LAYER/MID LEVELS DRY OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT REMAINING IN THE LINGERING LOWER STRATUS DECK
TO PROMOTE A LITTLE LIGHT DRIZZLE...POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MID-DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PROSPECT...FELT IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP A PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION GOING GIVEN THAT IT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...AND THAT WFO LBF JUST WEST OF THE
CWA HAS REPORTED A LITTLE OF IT FALLING AT THEIR OFFICE DURING THE
NIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL FAIRLY SAFE IN KEEPING THIS
POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS DESPITE THE LIKELY-LINGERING
STRATUS DECK THERE SHOULD NO LONGER BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE. SPEAKING OF SKY COVER...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE
"CLEARING" A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL...IT
APPEARS THAT LOWER STRATUS BASED AROUND 900/925MB WILL PROBABLY
TRY HOLDING PRETTY FIRM OVER AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...AND THUS HAVE UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAINED A NO-BETTER THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA COULD MAYBE
SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BET MUCH ON IT. TEMP-
WISE...FELT IT PROB WOULD BE BEST TO AIM PLACES ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY
"WARMER" THAN YESTERDAY...AND THUS CALLING FOR MOST PLACES TO
REACH UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AT BEST.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT THINGS
COULD REMAIN QUIET/VERY UNEVENTFUL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA...AND AM CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE AT LEAST WEAK SIGNALS
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG COULD
TRANSPIRE IN SOME PLACES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
LOW...LET ALONE AREAL PLACEMENT...IT WOULD SEEM THAT GENERALLY
SPEAKING THE GREATER FOG POTENTIAL MIGHT TARGET WESTERN
ZONES...WHILE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD MAINLY
TARGET EASTERN ZONES. FOR NOW THOUGH...HAVE KEPT A MORE BROAD
MENTION ACROSS THE AREA LARGELY IN LINE WITH WHAT WAS ALREADY IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE ADDING THE FOG MENTION WEST. AS FOR THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG BUT THERE COULD
BE A LITTLE LIFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS POST-
MIDNIGHT. ASSUMING THAT A LOW STRATUS LAYER REMAINS FIRMLY
INTACT...00Z/06Z NAM FORCAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE DEPTH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIKELY LOW-IMPACT SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
SURE LOOKS IFFY. PONDERED PULLING OUT THIS SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
ALTOGETHER...BUT AGAIN WITH IT ALREADY BEING IN THE FORECAST FELT
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LEAVE IT THERE FOR NOW AND GIVE
DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT LATEST MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY KIND OF IMPACTFUL ICING EVENT. AS FOR SURFACE
FEATURES TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL UNDER 10 MPH
FROM MAINLY A SOUTHERN DIRECTION. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN ASSUMING
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS...KEPT LOWS SOLIDLY 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE TOO-COLD-LOOKING 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21-25
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDN/T TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 180948
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN ONE HOUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDNT TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 180948
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN ONE HOUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES WILL BE
NOTED MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

STARTING WITH FRIDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 90%...ALONG WITH 0-0.5KM BULK SHEAR NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
10KTS...AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVES...MAY PROMOTE
PERIODIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH LATE MORNING. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LAYER OF SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE VERY THIN AND BASED ON THIS DATA...IT SHOULDNT TAKE LONG
TO MIX OUT THE SATURATED LAYER POST- SUNRISE. BUT NONETHELESS
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A
TIME FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SUCH WORDING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.

OF THE THREE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
EC BOTH SUGGEST THE THIRD WAVE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL
BE THE STRONGEST AS IT CLEARS THE REGION. IN FACT...DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AS WELL AS TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST TWO WAVES APPEAR SO
MEAGER THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WITH EITHER OF THE TWO FIRST WAVES SEEMS VERY LOW AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOTH DPVA AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
THIRD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20%
POPS ACROSS EXTREME EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS...FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...THAT THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A ~150KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THUS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. GIVEN
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA...PER THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS THIS IS A TIME WHEN FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A STRONG
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIQUID PRECIPITATION
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE READINGS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY BUT
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY DECREASE IN THE LOWS
FOR MONDAY MORNING COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERIODIC
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY
MORNING.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A
BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ALSO CLEARING THE AREA...SHOULD THEN
ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER FINISH TO THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE BACK INTO THE 20S
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 180720
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
120 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

JUST PUBLISHED THE FIRST OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE IN 3.5
HOURS...AND FOR THE MOST PART THE EXPECTATIONS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED. SLOWLY BUT SURELY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS BREAKING OUT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...BUT AS EXPECTED PER MODEL DATA AND AS EVIDENT PER RADAR
IMAGERY...THE STEADIEST SNOW IS TARGETING MAINLY ABOUT 5-7
COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA...INCLUDING THE 3 KS
COUNTIES OFFICIALLY IN THE PRE-EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
AT THIS POINT...THESE 3 COUNTIES STILL APPEAR MOST FAVORED TO
REALIZE ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...ALTHOUGH OF
COURSE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INCLUDING
NUCKOLLS/THAYER NEB TO MAKE SURE THEY DON/T UNEXPECTEDLY
REACH/EXCEED 2 INCHES EITHER. AT ANY RATE...BARRING THINGS
CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EXPECTATIONS...HAVE NO PLANS TO
EXPAND ADVISORY AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT OUR LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS "TECHNICALLY" 3+ INCHES AND
THAT LIGHT WINDS ARE MINIMIZING BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS. LAST BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...HAVE NOT HEARD OF ANY "HIGH IMPACT" FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES OUT THERE TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF FALLING SNOW...BUT
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AT THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHES OUT
LATER AND DENDRITIC/MID LEVEL SATURATION STARTS TO WANE. OTHER
THAN TWEAKING SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO
RAISE POPS UP INTO AT LEAST THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE IN MEASURABLE PERCENTAGES FOR AREAS
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES DESPITE THE FACT THAT ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THESE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY AVERAGE AROUND
ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL
AROUND 06Z BEFORE BETTER SATURATION OCCURS AND PCPN TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT SNOW. HAVE EXPANDED FZDZ POTENTIAL TO OUR OUR ENTIRE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE
IN TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC
NW COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IS LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING
THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 180720
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
120 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

JUST PUBLISHED THE FIRST OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATE IN 3.5
HOURS...AND FOR THE MOST PART THE EXPECTATIONS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED. SLOWLY BUT SURELY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS BREAKING OUT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...BUT AS EXPECTED PER MODEL DATA AND AS EVIDENT PER RADAR
IMAGERY...THE STEADIEST SNOW IS TARGETING MAINLY ABOUT 5-7
COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA...INCLUDING THE 3 KS
COUNTIES OFFICIALLY IN THE PRE-EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
AT THIS POINT...THESE 3 COUNTIES STILL APPEAR MOST FAVORED TO
REALIZE ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...ALTHOUGH OF
COURSE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INCLUDING
NUCKOLLS/THAYER NEB TO MAKE SURE THEY DON/T UNEXPECTEDLY
REACH/EXCEED 2 INCHES EITHER. AT ANY RATE...BARRING THINGS
CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EXPECTATIONS...HAVE NO PLANS TO
EXPAND ADVISORY AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THAT OUR LOCAL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS "TECHNICALLY" 3+ INCHES AND
THAT LIGHT WINDS ARE MINIMIZING BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS. LAST BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...HAVE NOT HEARD OF ANY "HIGH IMPACT" FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES OUT THERE TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF FALLING SNOW...BUT
WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AT THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHES OUT
LATER AND DENDRITIC/MID LEVEL SATURATION STARTS TO WANE. OTHER
THAN TWEAKING SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO
RAISE POPS UP INTO AT LEAST THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE IN MEASURABLE PERCENTAGES FOR AREAS
INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES DESPITE THE FACT THAT ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THESE CENTRAL AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY AVERAGE AROUND
ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL
AROUND 06Z BEFORE BETTER SATURATION OCCURS AND PCPN TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT SNOW. HAVE EXPANDED FZDZ POTENTIAL TO OUR OUR ENTIRE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE
IN TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC
NW COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IS LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING
THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 180553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1153 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL
AROUND 06Z BEFORE BETTER SATURATION OCCURS AND PCPN TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT SNOW. HAVE EXPANDED FZDZ POTENTIAL TO OUR OUR ENTIRE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE
IN TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC
NW COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

YET AGAIN...ANOTHER TAF PERIOD WITH A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING/TRICKY
FORECAST REGARDING MAINLY CEILING TRENDS...BUT POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
AS WELL. ON TOP OF THIS...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IS LIKELY RIGHT AWAY DURING THESE FIRST 6 HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE/OCCURRENCE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED AS WELL. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CEILING-
WISE...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE AS
SUGGESTED BY OTHER MODELS/GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING PERSISTING
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WISE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT FOG COULD BECOME A FACTOR...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INDICATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW DURING
THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
MAJOR AVIATION ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 180227
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
827 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL
AROUND 06Z BEFORE BETTER SATURATION OCCURS AND PCPN TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT SNOW. HAVE EXPANDED FZDZ POTENTIAL TO OUR OUR ENTIRE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE IN
TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW
COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE REGION AND WEST OF THE
TERMINAL AREAS OF BR HAVE DEVELOPED WITH LIFR CIGS AND SOME HIT
MISS FZDZ. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING CHCS FOR SNOWFALL TOWARD 06Z
AND PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE GREATER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUS ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 180227
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
827 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL
AROUND 06Z BEFORE BETTER SATURATION OCCURS AND PCPN TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT SNOW. HAVE EXPANDED FZDZ POTENTIAL TO OUR OUR ENTIRE CWA
FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE IN
TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW
COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE REGION AND WEST OF THE
TERMINAL AREAS OF BR HAVE DEVELOPED WITH LIFR CIGS AND SOME HIT
MISS FZDZ. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING CHCS FOR SNOWFALL TOWARD 06Z
AND PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE GREATER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUS ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 172341
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE IN
TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW
COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE REGION AND WEST OF THE
TERMINAL AREAS OF BR HAVE DEVELOPED WITH LIFR CIGS AND SOME HIT
MISS FZDZ. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING CHCS FOR SNOWFALL TOWARD 06Z
AND PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE GREATER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUS ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 172341
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE IN
TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW
COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

COMPLICATED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE REGION AND WEST OF THE
TERMINAL AREAS OF BR HAVE DEVELOPED WITH LIFR CIGS AND SOME HIT
MISS FZDZ. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING CHCS FOR SNOWFALL TOWARD 06Z
AND PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE GREATER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUS ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 172149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE IN
TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW
COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL STRATUS...SOME BR...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE VALID
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND SOME BR TO
CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFT ABOUT 17/22Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS TO SPREAD SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT SNOW COMING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AT BOTH SITES.
THEREAFTER...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER AND VISIBILITIES DROP
FURTHER...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WHILE
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 172149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE IN
TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW
COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL STRATUS...SOME BR...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE VALID
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND SOME BR TO
CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFT ABOUT 17/22Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS TO SPREAD SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT SNOW COMING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AT BOTH SITES.
THEREAFTER...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER AND VISIBILITIES DROP
FURTHER...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WHILE
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 172149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN RAPIDLY TRACK
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED THE FURTHER YOU WORK NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...ATTEMPTED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST SOME...INCREASING
TOTALS A BIT ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...AND DECREASING THEM BY
ABOUT HALF ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE LARGEST CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS CONFIDENCE FOR IT BEING REALIZED...AT LEAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IS EXTREMELY LOW. WHILE AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SAW SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...CALLS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE LED US TO BELIEVE THAT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE TOO GREAT ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA FOR THE LIGHT RETURNS
ON RADAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THEN...AS THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. HENCE...DECIDED TO
REMOVE DRIZZLE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT
SAID...DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AREA ON THE TAIL END
OF THE EVENT AS DRY AIR INTRUDES AT THE MID LEVELS...BUT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...THIS MAY HAVE A
VERY MINIMAL IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT NEAR 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY NEAR 30 THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PATTERN: FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MODIFY TO INCREASING AMPLIFICATION AS A TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE
DATELINE...FORCING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES TO BREAK OFF AND SETUP OVER
THE E PAC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN USA NEXT WEEK.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC/GFS/GEM ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS WELL AS THE LAST 2 UKMET
RUNS...REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN/LONGWAVE FLOW. THIS
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

BOTTOM LINE IS TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UPWARD THRU THE WEEKEND
THEN TURNING COLDER...WITH NO MAJOR PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ALOFT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU FRI NIGHT AND WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU SUN JUST
AHEAD OF A STRONG 175 KT ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. THE
ASSOCIATED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES
SUN AND DIVE INTO THE PLAINS MON...SLOWING DOWN WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION AND CLOSING OFF AND MID-LVL LOW. NNW FLOW WILL MOVE IN
TUE-WED WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE PAC NW
COAST.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI AND GRADUALLY
SLIP E INTO SAT...AS A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER ALBERTA AND EJECTS ONTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW PRES SHOULD
THEN FORM OVER ALBERTA SUN AND DIVE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS MON
...WITH THE INITIAL LOW FADING. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. HIGH PRES SHOULD FOLLOW TUE-WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT-SAT: PERSISTENCE SEEMS WISE AS GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
A LOW STRATUS SIGNAL. IT HAS BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DISLODGE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN AFTER THE LOW THAT MOVED THRU HERE SUN. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WRN EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/NEAR HWY 283/ THRU FRI. DOES THE STRATUS LINGER INTO SAT FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE FCST AREA? CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF/WHEN/WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS OR DEPARTS BUT WE HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
FROM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FRZG DRZL THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. WE AS FCSTRS HAVE VERY LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING
FRZG DRZL AND THE FCST MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO ME
BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...BUT LOOK AT THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING THIS AM.
THEY HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH IT W OF HERE TODAY. SO IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED FROM 6 PM THU-12 PM FRI...BUT IT IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

STRATUS ALWAYS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPS. THAT MEANS
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL WHERE IT LINGERS AND WE DONT
HAVE IT OR WHERE IT CLEARS AND WE DO.

SUN: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT COULD BE SURPRISINGLY WARM DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER.

SUN NIGHT: POSSIBLY A NARROW/SMALL ARC OF BROKEN SHWRS WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

MON: A COUPLE MORE BRIEF SHWRS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE: NW WINDS CRANK IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. COULD SEE A LITTLE WRAP-
AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LOW OVER IA.
ANY SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THE MID-LVL CIRCULATION IS
CURRENTLY FCST TO REMAIN N OF THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR
DECENT PRECIP HERE.

WED: ANOTHER DAY IN THE COLD SECTOR AS A POTENTIALLY INTENSE /SUB
980/ LOW CRANKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL STRATUS...SOME BR...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE VALID
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND SOME BR TO
CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFT ABOUT 17/22Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS TO SPREAD SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT SNOW COMING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AT BOTH SITES.
THEREAFTER...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER AND VISIBILITIES DROP
FURTHER...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WHILE
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 171812
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ONLY A FEW DAYS AFTER THE LAST TRICKY/HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW EVENT
PAID A VISIT TO THE LOCAL AREA...ANOTHER LOW-CONFIDENCE EVENT FOR
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. GETTING RIGHT TO THE MAIN POINT: ALTHOUGH
MOST ALL OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A VERY LIGHT
DUSTING...THE OVERALL- HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...AND ALTHOUGH
IT IS BY NO MEANS A "SLAM DUNK" VERSUS LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THERE WERE ENOUGH PROS VS. CONS TO JOIN NEIGHBORING
WFO/S TOP/ICT ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
OSBORNE/MITCHELL/JEWELL COUNTIES AS A STARTING POINT...WITH DAY
SHIFT OBVIOUSLY GETTING ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF OTHER COUNTIES
MIGHT BE WARRANTED. FORTUNATELY...BARRING ANY SURPRISES FROM
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY "LOW-
END" ADVISORY EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 10 MPH OR LESS.
ONE WILD CARD FACTOR THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO OCCUR
ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA TONIGHT...WHICH OF COURSE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY FORECAST TO AVERAGE 0.5-1.5
INCHES...HAD NO JUSTIFIABLE REASON TO PUT ANY OTHER COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

STARTING OFF THIS MORNING AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS
THE CWA...AS ALTHOUGH RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME SUGGESTION OF A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN NO GROUND-TRUTH THUS FAR TO SUGGEST IT
IS OVERCOMING DRY LOW-MID LEVELS TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH A VERY STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
BLANKET MOST ALL OF THE CWA AND HAS EVEN EXPANDED MORE SO INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF LATE...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF LEGITIMATE FOG
FORMATION AND THUS THE PREVIOUS MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN
ZONES FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LIKELY INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
JUST STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COMPLEX/MULTI-FACETED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHOSE
FIRST MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VERY WEAK LEAD WAVE AND SOME
UPPER JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS IS PRODUCING THE NARROW BANDS OF
"WANNABE FLURRIES" OVER NEB AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA HAS
SLID JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW LOCAL BREEZES TO TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY WELL UNDER 10
MPH. YET AGAIN...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE HELPED HOLD TEMPS WELL-
ABOVE THEIR MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH MOST OF THE CWA LOOKING
TO BOTTOM OUT NO COLDER THAN 17-20.

TURNING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE
MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD
CONTINUE SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BUT DRY WEATHER...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP JUST STARTING TO BREAK
OUT IN SOUTHERN KS ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...PART OF THE REASON THIS 24-HOUR PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW-
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS TROUGH IS LOOKING TO COME OUT IN SMALLER
PIECES...AND POSSIBLY BE PRONE TO AT LEAST LIMITED MESOSCALE
BANDING AS WELL...WHICH CAN BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN
UNTIL IT ACTUALLY SHOWS ITS HAND. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP EASTERLY BREEZES IN PLACE...AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS NO MORE
THAN 10-15 MPH. CLOUD-WISE TODAY...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF MID-UPPER
CLOUDS MAY WANE FOR A TIME TODAY...THE LATEST RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN HANG
TOUGH ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA PROVIDING ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY. SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE
SOME CLEARING PUSH IN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS. PRECIP-WISE...UNLESS A ROGUE FLURRY MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD STAY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DID START A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN-MOST 3 KS COUNTIES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE A FEW OF THE FASTER-TO-SATURATE
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF/NMM HAPPEN TO BE ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ENTIRE CWA
REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...LIKE YESTERDAY
EXPECTING LITTLE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
A TOUCH TOO WARM IN SOME SPOTS...LOWERED PREVIOUS FORECAST
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES TO YIELD GENERALLY 26-31 ACROSS MOST NEB
ZONES...AND 30-35 IN KS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ALREADY COVERED SOME OF THE REASONING
BEHIND HEADLINES AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN PRECEDING PARAGRAPHS...BUT THE VERY
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTH AND/OR BREAK OUT OVERHEAD AS THE MULTI-FACETED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEB/KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLING DURING THE 9PM-3AM WINDOW. HIGHER-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF NMM/ARW AND EVEN THE NAM CLEARLY
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
MESOSCALE BANDING...POTENTIALLY EVEN FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...MODEL CONSENSUS
DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE OVERALL HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
FOCUS WITHIN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA...WHERE
GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE MOST FAVORED...WHILE AREAS
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF AN ALMA-HASTINGS-YORK LINE (INCLUDING THE
TRI-CITIES) SHOULD GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF 1 INCH...WITH FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS DAWSON/VALLEY/GREELEY POTENTIALLY
HARDLY SEEING ANY SNOW AT ALL. FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS EVEN AT
THIS SHORT TIME RANGE IS THE SUGGESTION THAT DENDRITIC LAYER /MID-
LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE SKETCHY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE
MAIN SNOW AREA...WHICH GIVEN THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING WAVE COULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST LIMITED LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALMOST ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS THIS HAS EITHER BEEN INTRODUCED OR
MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THURS MORNING. BY AND LARGE THOUGH...IN THEORY THIS SHOULD MAINLY
BE A SNOW EVENT AND NOT A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS EAST-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ONLY 5-10
MPH. LOW TEMPS WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IF ANY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMED INTO THE 19-26 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...OR
GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE A 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH
AGAIN APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH POINT/COUNTY-SPECIFIC SNOWFALL FORECASTS
SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN "LITERALLY"...SETUPS SUCH AS THIS ARE EVEN
MORE SO THE CASE...AS ALTHOUGH NOBODY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1 OR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THOSE PLACES
THAT HARDLY SEE A SNOWFLAKE...WHILE IN CONTRAST ITS POSSIBLE THAT
CONCENTRATED BANDING COULD PUSH A FEW SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO 3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL STRATUS...SOME BR...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE VALID
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND SOME BR TO
CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFT ABOUT 17/22Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS TO SPREAD SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT SNOW COMING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AT BOTH SITES.
THEREAFTER...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER AND VISIBILITIES DROP
FURTHER...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WHILE
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 171812
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ONLY A FEW DAYS AFTER THE LAST TRICKY/HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW EVENT
PAID A VISIT TO THE LOCAL AREA...ANOTHER LOW-CONFIDENCE EVENT FOR
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. GETTING RIGHT TO THE MAIN POINT: ALTHOUGH
MOST ALL OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A VERY LIGHT
DUSTING...THE OVERALL- HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...AND ALTHOUGH
IT IS BY NO MEANS A "SLAM DUNK" VERSUS LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THERE WERE ENOUGH PROS VS. CONS TO JOIN NEIGHBORING
WFO/S TOP/ICT ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
OSBORNE/MITCHELL/JEWELL COUNTIES AS A STARTING POINT...WITH DAY
SHIFT OBVIOUSLY GETTING ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF OTHER COUNTIES
MIGHT BE WARRANTED. FORTUNATELY...BARRING ANY SURPRISES FROM
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY "LOW-
END" ADVISORY EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 10 MPH OR LESS.
ONE WILD CARD FACTOR THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO OCCUR
ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA TONIGHT...WHICH OF COURSE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY FORECAST TO AVERAGE 0.5-1.5
INCHES...HAD NO JUSTIFIABLE REASON TO PUT ANY OTHER COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

STARTING OFF THIS MORNING AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS
THE CWA...AS ALTHOUGH RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME SUGGESTION OF A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN NO GROUND-TRUTH THUS FAR TO SUGGEST IT
IS OVERCOMING DRY LOW-MID LEVELS TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH A VERY STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
BLANKET MOST ALL OF THE CWA AND HAS EVEN EXPANDED MORE SO INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF LATE...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF LEGITIMATE FOG
FORMATION AND THUS THE PREVIOUS MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN
ZONES FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LIKELY INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
JUST STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COMPLEX/MULTI-FACETED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHOSE
FIRST MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VERY WEAK LEAD WAVE AND SOME
UPPER JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS IS PRODUCING THE NARROW BANDS OF
"WANNABE FLURRIES" OVER NEB AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA HAS
SLID JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW LOCAL BREEZES TO TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY WELL UNDER 10
MPH. YET AGAIN...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE HELPED HOLD TEMPS WELL-
ABOVE THEIR MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH MOST OF THE CWA LOOKING
TO BOTTOM OUT NO COLDER THAN 17-20.

TURNING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE
MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD
CONTINUE SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BUT DRY WEATHER...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP JUST STARTING TO BREAK
OUT IN SOUTHERN KS ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...PART OF THE REASON THIS 24-HOUR PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW-
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS TROUGH IS LOOKING TO COME OUT IN SMALLER
PIECES...AND POSSIBLY BE PRONE TO AT LEAST LIMITED MESOSCALE
BANDING AS WELL...WHICH CAN BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN
UNTIL IT ACTUALLY SHOWS ITS HAND. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP EASTERLY BREEZES IN PLACE...AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS NO MORE
THAN 10-15 MPH. CLOUD-WISE TODAY...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF MID-UPPER
CLOUDS MAY WANE FOR A TIME TODAY...THE LATEST RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN HANG
TOUGH ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA PROVIDING ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY. SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE
SOME CLEARING PUSH IN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS. PRECIP-WISE...UNLESS A ROGUE FLURRY MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD STAY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DID START A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN-MOST 3 KS COUNTIES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE A FEW OF THE FASTER-TO-SATURATE
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF/NMM HAPPEN TO BE ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ENTIRE CWA
REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...LIKE YESTERDAY
EXPECTING LITTLE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
A TOUCH TOO WARM IN SOME SPOTS...LOWERED PREVIOUS FORECAST
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES TO YIELD GENERALLY 26-31 ACROSS MOST NEB
ZONES...AND 30-35 IN KS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ALREADY COVERED SOME OF THE REASONING
BEHIND HEADLINES AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN PRECEDING PARAGRAPHS...BUT THE VERY
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTH AND/OR BREAK OUT OVERHEAD AS THE MULTI-FACETED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEB/KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLING DURING THE 9PM-3AM WINDOW. HIGHER-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF NMM/ARW AND EVEN THE NAM CLEARLY
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
MESOSCALE BANDING...POTENTIALLY EVEN FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...MODEL CONSENSUS
DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE OVERALL HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
FOCUS WITHIN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA...WHERE
GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE MOST FAVORED...WHILE AREAS
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF AN ALMA-HASTINGS-YORK LINE (INCLUDING THE
TRI-CITIES) SHOULD GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF 1 INCH...WITH FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS DAWSON/VALLEY/GREELEY POTENTIALLY
HARDLY SEEING ANY SNOW AT ALL. FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS EVEN AT
THIS SHORT TIME RANGE IS THE SUGGESTION THAT DENDRITIC LAYER /MID-
LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE SKETCHY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE
MAIN SNOW AREA...WHICH GIVEN THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING WAVE COULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST LIMITED LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALMOST ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS THIS HAS EITHER BEEN INTRODUCED OR
MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THURS MORNING. BY AND LARGE THOUGH...IN THEORY THIS SHOULD MAINLY
BE A SNOW EVENT AND NOT A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS EAST-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ONLY 5-10
MPH. LOW TEMPS WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IF ANY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMED INTO THE 19-26 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...OR
GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE A 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH
AGAIN APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH POINT/COUNTY-SPECIFIC SNOWFALL FORECASTS
SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN "LITERALLY"...SETUPS SUCH AS THIS ARE EVEN
MORE SO THE CASE...AS ALTHOUGH NOBODY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1 OR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THOSE PLACES
THAT HARDLY SEE A SNOWFLAKE...WHILE IN CONTRAST ITS POSSIBLE THAT
CONCENTRATED BANDING COULD PUSH A FEW SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO 3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL STRATUS...SOME BR...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE VALID
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND SOME BR TO
CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AFT ABOUT 17/22Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS TO SPREAD SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT SNOW COMING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AT BOTH SITES.
THEREAFTER...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER AND VISIBILITIES DROP
FURTHER...AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WHILE
GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 171218
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ONLY A FEW DAYS AFTER THE LAST TRICKY/HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW EVENT
PAID A VISIT TO THE LOCAL AREA...ANOTHER LOW-CONFIDENCE EVENT FOR
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. GETTING RIGHT TO THE MAIN POINT: ALTHOUGH
MOST ALL OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A VERY LIGHT
DUSTING...THE OVERALL- HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...AND ALTHOUGH
IT IS BY NO MEANS A "SLAM DUNK" VERSUS LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THERE WERE ENOUGH PROS VS. CONS TO JOIN NEIGHBORING
WFO/S TOP/ICT ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
OSBORNE/MITCHELL/JEWELL COUNTIES AS A STARTING POINT...WITH DAY
SHIFT OBVIOUSLY GETTING ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF OTHER COUNTIES
MIGHT BE WARRANTED. FORTUNATELY...BARRING ANY SURPRISES FROM
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY "LOW-
END" ADVISORY EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 10 MPH OR LESS.
ONE WILD CARD FACTOR THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO OCCUR
ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA TONIGHT...WHICH OF COURSE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY FORECAST TO AVERAGE 0.5-1.5
INCHES...HAD NO JUSTIFIABLE REASON TO PUT ANY OTHER COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

STARTING OFF THIS MORNING AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS
THE CWA...AS ALTHOUGH RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME SUGGESTION OF A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN NO GROUND-TRUTH THUS FAR TO SUGGEST IT
IS OVERCOMING DRY LOW-MID LEVELS TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH A VERY STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
BLANKET MOST ALL OF THE CWA AND HAS EVEN EXPANDED MORE SO INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF LATE...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF LEGITIMATE FOG
FORMATION AND THUS THE PREVIOUS MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN
ZONES FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LIKELY INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
JUST STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COMPLEX/MULTI-FACETED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHOSE
FIRST MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VERY WEAK LEAD WAVE AND SOME
UPPER JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS IS PRODUCING THE NARROW BANDS OF
"WANNABE FLURRIES" OVER NEB AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA HAS
SLID JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW LOCAL BREEZES TO TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY WELL UNDER 10
MPH. YET AGAIN...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE HELPED HOLD TEMPS WELL-
ABOVE THEIR MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH MOST OF THE CWA LOOKING
TO BOTTOM OUT NO COLDER THAN 17-20.

TURNING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE
MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD
CONTINUE SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BUT DRY WEATHER...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP JUST STARTING TO BREAK
OUT IN SOUTHERN KS ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...PART OF THE REASON THIS 24-HOUR PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW-
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS TROUGH IS LOOKING TO COME OUT IN SMALLER
PIECES...AND POSSIBLY BE PRONE TO AT LEAST LIMITED MESOSCALE
BANDING AS WELL...WHICH CAN BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN
UNTIL IT ACTUALLY SHOWS ITS HAND. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP EASTERLY BREEZES IN PLACE...AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS NO MORE
THAN 10-15 MPH. CLOUD-WISE TODAY...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF MID-UPPER
CLOUDS MAY WANE FOR A TIME TODAY...THE LATEST RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN HANG
TOUGH ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA PROVIDING ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY. SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE
SOME CLEARING PUSH IN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS. PRECIP-WISE...UNLESS A ROGUE FLURRY MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD STAY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DID START A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN-MOST 3 KS COUNTIES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE A FEW OF THE FASTER-TO-SATURATE
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF/NMM HAPPEN TO BE ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ENTIRE CWA
REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...LIKE YESTERDAY
EXPECTING LITTLE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
A TOUCH TOO WARM IN SOME SPOTS...LOWERED PREVIOUS FORECAST
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES TO YIELD GENERALLY 26-31 ACROSS MOST NEB
ZONES...AND 30-35 IN KS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ALREADY COVERED SOME OF THE REASONING
BEHIND HEADLINES AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN PRECEDING PARAGRAPHS...BUT THE VERY
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTH AND/OR BREAK OUT OVERHEAD AS THE MULTI-FACETED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEB/KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLING DURING THE 9PM-3AM WINDOW. HIGHER-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF NMM/ARW AND EVEN THE NAM CLEARLY
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
MESOSCALE BANDING...POTENTIALLY EVEN FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...MODEL CONSENSUS
DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE OVERALL HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
FOCUS WITHIN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA...WHERE
GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE MOST FAVORED...WHILE AREAS
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF AN ALMA-HASTINGS-YORK LINE (INCLUDING THE
TRI-CITIES) SHOULD GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF 1 INCH...WITH FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS DAWSON/VALLEY/GREELEY POTENTIALLY
HARDLY SEEING ANY SNOW AT ALL. FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS EVEN AT
THIS SHORT TIME RANGE IS THE SUGGESTION THAT DENDRITIC LAYER /MID-
LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE SKETCHY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE
MAIN SNOW AREA...WHICH GIVEN THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING WAVE COULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST LIMITED LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALMOST ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS THIS HAS EITHER BEEN INTRODUCED OR
MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THURS MORNING. BY AND LARGE THOUGH...IN THEORY THIS SHOULD MAINLY
BE A SNOW EVENT AND NOT A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS EAST-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ONLY 5-10
MPH. LOW TEMPS WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IF ANY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMED INTO THE 19-26 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...OR
GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE A 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH
AGAIN APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH POINT/COUNTY-SPECIFIC SNOWFALL FORECASTS
SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN "LITERALLY"...SETUPS SUCH AS THIS ARE EVEN
MORE SO THE CASE...AS ALTHOUGH NOBODY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1 OR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THOSE PLACES
THAT HARDLY SEE A SNOWFLAKE...WHILE IN CONTRAST ITS POSSIBLE THAT
CONCENTRATED BANDING COULD PUSH A FEW SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO 3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES/QUESTIONS THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
INVOLVE:

1) CAN ONE OR BOTH OF THE TAF SITES SHAKE FREE OF A LONG-LASTING
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DURING THE
PERIOD...AND IF SO FOR HOW LONG?

2) WHAT IS THE TIMING AND IMPACT ON CEILING/VISIBILITY OF WHAT IS
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL
AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT MAINLY DURING THE
FINAL 8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD?

REGARDING ISSUE NUMBER 1...DESPITE SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS SEVERAL HOURS OF A RETURN TO VFR CEILING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT BOTH SITES...RECENT HISTORY SUGGESTS
THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AND THUS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A
PERSISTENCE APPROACH WITH NO-BETTER-THAN MVFR CEILING PREVAILING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND FOLKS CAN BE "PLEASANTLY
SURPRISED" IF VFR DOES IN FACT RETURN FOR A TIME. EVEN IF IT
DOES...AT LEAST MVFR- OR-LOWER SHOULD AGAIN SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. GIVEN THIS IS WELL
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...HAVE JUST GONE WITH A SIMPLE
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING IN FALLING SNOW...AND WILL
DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO FINE TUNE. ALTHOUGH -FZDZ CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER...CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO OFFICIALLY INSERT AT THIS POINT.
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE WIND REMAINS RATHER HIGH...AS
THEY WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION AT SPEEDS MAINLY
10KT OR LESS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 171110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
510 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ONLY A FEW DAYS AFTER THE LAST TRICKY/HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW EVENT
PAID A VISIT TO THE LOCAL AREA...ANOTHER LOW-CONFIDENCE EVENT FOR
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. GETTING RIGHT TO THE MAIN POINT: ALTHOUGH
MOST ALL OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A VERY LIGHT
DUSTING...THE OVERALL- HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...AND ALTHOUGH
IT IS BY NO MEANS A "SLAM DUNK" VERSUS LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THERE WERE ENOUGH PROS VS. CONS TO JOIN NEIGHBORING
WFO/S TOP/ICT ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
OSBORNE/MITCHELL/JEWELL COUNTIES AS A STARTING POINT...WITH DAY
SHIFT OBVIOUSLY GETTING ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF OTHER COUNTIES
MIGHT BE WARRANTED. FORTUNATELY...BARRING ANY SURPRISES FROM
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY "LOW-
END" ADVISORY EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 10 MPH OR LESS.
ONE WILD CARD FACTOR THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO OCCUR
ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA TONIGHT...WHICH OF COURSE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY FORECAST TO AVERAGE 0.5-1.5
INCHES...HAD NO JUSTIFIABLE REASON TO PUT ANY OTHER COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

STARTING OFF THIS MORNING AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS
THE CWA...AS ALTHOUGH RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME SUGGESTION OF A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN NO GROUND-TRUTH THUS FAR TO SUGGEST IT
IS OVERCOMING DRY LOW-MID LEVELS TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH A VERY STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
BLANKET MOST ALL OF THE CWA AND HAS EVEN EXPANDED MORE SO INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF LATE...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF LEGITIMATE FOG
FORMATION AND THUS THE PREVIOUS MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN
ZONES FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LIKELY INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
JUST STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COMPLEX/MULTI-FACETED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHOSE
FIRST MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VERY WEAK LEAD WAVE AND SOME
UPPER JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS IS PRODUCING THE NARROW BANDS OF
"WANNABE FLURRIES" OVER NEB AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA HAS
SLID JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW LOCAL BREEZES TO TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY WELL UNDER 10
MPH. YET AGAIN...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE HELPED HOLD TEMPS WELL-
ABOVE THEIR MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH MOST OF THE CWA LOOKING
TO BOTTOM OUT NO COLDER THAN 17-20.

TURNING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE
MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD
CONTINUE SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BUT DRY WEATHER...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP JUST STARTING TO BREAK
OUT IN SOUTHERN KS ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...PART OF THE REASON THIS 24-HOUR PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW-
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS TROUGH IS LOOKING TO COME OUT IN SMALLER
PIECES...AND POSSIBLY BE PRONE TO AT LEAST LIMITED MESOSCALE
BANDING AS WELL...WHICH CAN BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN
UNTIL IT ACTUALLY SHOWS ITS HAND. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP EASTERLY BREEZES IN PLACE...AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS NO MORE
THAN 10-15 MPH. CLOUD-WISE TODAY...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF MID-UPPER
CLOUDS MAY WANE FOR A TIME TODAY...THE LATEST RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN HANG
TOUGH ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA PROVIDING ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY. SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE
SOME CLEARING PUSH IN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS. PRECIP-WISE...UNLESS A ROGUE FLURRY MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD STAY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DID START A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN-MOST 3 KS COUNTIES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE A FEW OF THE FASTER-TO-SATURATE
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF/NMM HAPPEN TO BE ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ENTIRE CWA
REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...LIKE YESTERDAY
EXPECTING LITTLE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
A TOUCH TOO WARM IN SOME SPOTS...LOWERED PREVIOUS FORECAST
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES TO YIELD GENERALLY 26-31 ACROSS MOST NEB
ZONES...AND 30-35 IN KS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ALREADY COVERED SOME OF THE REASONING
BEHIND HEADLINES AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN PRECEDING PARAGRAPHS...BUT THE VERY
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTH AND/OR BREAK OUT OVERHEAD AS THE MULTI-FACETED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEB/KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLING DURING THE 9PM-3AM WINDOW. HIGHER-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF NMM/ARW AND EVEN THE NAM CLEARLY
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
MESOSCALE BANDING...POTENTIALLY EVEN FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...MODEL CONSENSUS
DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE OVERALL HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
FOCUS WITHIN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA...WHERE
GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE MOST FAVORED...WHILE AREAS
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF AN ALMA-HASTINGS-YORK LINE (INCLUDING THE
TRI-CITIES) SHOULD GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF 1 INCH...WITH FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS DAWSON/VALLEY/GREELEY POTENTIALLY
HARDLY SEEING ANY SNOW AT ALL. FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS EVEN AT
THIS SHORT TIME RANGE IS THE SUGGESTION THAT DENDRITIC LAYER /MID-
LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE SKETCHY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE
MAIN SNOW AREA...WHICH GIVEN THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING WAVE COULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST LIMITED LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALMOST ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS THIS HAS EITHER BEEN INTRODUCED OR
MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THURS MORNING. BY AND LARGE THOUGH...IN THEORY THIS SHOULD MAINLY
BE A SNOW EVENT AND NOT A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS EAST-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ONLY 5-10
MPH. LOW TEMPS WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IF ANY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMED INTO THE 19-26 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...OR
GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE A 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH
AGAIN APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH POINT/COUNTY-SPECIFIC SNOWFALL FORECASTS
SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN "LITERALLY"...SETUPS SUCH AS THIS ARE EVEN
MORE SO THE CASE...AS ALTHOUGH NOBODY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1 OR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THOSE PLACES
THAT HARDLY SEE A SNOWFLAKE...WHILE IN CONTRAST ITS POSSIBLE THAT
CONCENTRATED BANDING COULD PUSH A FEW SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO 3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 171110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
510 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ONLY A FEW DAYS AFTER THE LAST TRICKY/HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW EVENT
PAID A VISIT TO THE LOCAL AREA...ANOTHER LOW-CONFIDENCE EVENT FOR
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS. GETTING RIGHT TO THE MAIN POINT: ALTHOUGH
MOST ALL OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A VERY LIGHT
DUSTING...THE OVERALL- HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...AND ALTHOUGH
IT IS BY NO MEANS A "SLAM DUNK" VERSUS LOCAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THERE WERE ENOUGH PROS VS. CONS TO JOIN NEIGHBORING
WFO/S TOP/ICT ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
OSBORNE/MITCHELL/JEWELL COUNTIES AS A STARTING POINT...WITH DAY
SHIFT OBVIOUSLY GETTING ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF OTHER COUNTIES
MIGHT BE WARRANTED. FORTUNATELY...BARRING ANY SURPRISES FROM
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY "LOW-
END" ADVISORY EVENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 10 MPH OR LESS.
ONE WILD CARD FACTOR THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO OCCUR
ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA TONIGHT...WHICH OF COURSE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA ONLY FORECAST TO AVERAGE 0.5-1.5
INCHES...HAD NO JUSTIFIABLE REASON TO PUT ANY OTHER COUNTIES IN AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

STARTING OFF THIS MORNING AS OF 1030Z/430 AM...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS
THE CWA...AS ALTHOUGH RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME SUGGESTION OF A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN NO GROUND-TRUTH THUS FAR TO SUGGEST IT
IS OVERCOMING DRY LOW-MID LEVELS TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH A VERY STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
BLANKET MOST ALL OF THE CWA AND HAS EVEN EXPANDED MORE SO INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF LATE...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF LEGITIMATE FOG
FORMATION AND THUS THE PREVIOUS MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN
ZONES FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LIKELY INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
JUST STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COMPLEX/MULTI-FACETED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHOSE
FIRST MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...A VERY WEAK LEAD WAVE AND SOME
UPPER JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS IS PRODUCING THE NARROW BANDS OF
"WANNABE FLURRIES" OVER NEB AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA HAS
SLID JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW LOCAL BREEZES TO TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY WELL UNDER 10
MPH. YET AGAIN...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE HELPED HOLD TEMPS WELL-
ABOVE THEIR MAX COOLING POTENTIAL...WITH MOST OF THE CWA LOOKING
TO BOTTOM OUT NO COLDER THAN 17-20.

TURNING TO THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE
MAIN POINT TO MAKE IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD
CONTINUE SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BUT DRY WEATHER...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP JUST STARTING TO BREAK
OUT IN SOUTHERN KS ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL MAKE
ITS WAY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...PART OF THE REASON THIS 24-HOUR PRECIP FORECAST IS LOW-
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THIS TROUGH IS LOOKING TO COME OUT IN SMALLER
PIECES...AND POSSIBLY BE PRONE TO AT LEAST LIMITED MESOSCALE
BANDING AS WELL...WHICH CAN BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN
UNTIL IT ACTUALLY SHOWS ITS HAND. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL KEEP EASTERLY BREEZES IN PLACE...AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS NO MORE
THAN 10-15 MPH. CLOUD-WISE TODAY...WHILE THE COVERAGE OF MID-UPPER
CLOUDS MAY WANE FOR A TIME TODAY...THE LATEST RAP/NAM LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS SHOULD AGAIN HANG
TOUGH ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA PROVIDING ANOTHER GLOOMY
DAY. SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE
SOME CLEARING PUSH IN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS. PRECIP-WISE...UNLESS A ROGUE FLURRY MAKES IT TO THE GROUND
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD STAY PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DID START A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN-MOST 3 KS COUNTIES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE A FEW OF THE FASTER-TO-SATURATE
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF/NMM HAPPEN TO BE ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ENTIRE CWA
REMAINS PRECIP-FREE THROUGH SUNSET. TEMP-WISE...LIKE YESTERDAY
EXPECTING LITTLE RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE
A TOUCH TOO WARM IN SOME SPOTS...LOWERED PREVIOUS FORECAST
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES TO YIELD GENERALLY 26-31 ACROSS MOST NEB
ZONES...AND 30-35 IN KS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...ALREADY COVERED SOME OF THE REASONING
BEHIND HEADLINES AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN PRECEDING PARAGRAPHS...BUT THE VERY
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTH AND/OR BREAK OUT OVERHEAD AS THE MULTI-FACETED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEB/KS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLING DURING THE 9PM-3AM WINDOW. HIGHER-RES
MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM WRF NMM/ARW AND EVEN THE NAM CLEARLY
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
MESOSCALE BANDING...POTENTIALLY EVEN FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...MODEL CONSENSUS
DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE OVERALL HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
FOCUS WITHIN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA...WHERE
GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE MOST FAVORED...WHILE AREAS
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF AN ALMA-HASTINGS-YORK LINE (INCLUDING THE
TRI-CITIES) SHOULD GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF 1 INCH...WITH FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS DAWSON/VALLEY/GREELEY POTENTIALLY
HARDLY SEEING ANY SNOW AT ALL. FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS EVEN AT
THIS SHORT TIME RANGE IS THE SUGGESTION THAT DENDRITIC LAYER /MID-
LEVEL SATURATION MAY BE SKETCHY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE
MAIN SNOW AREA...WHICH GIVEN THE LIFT FROM THE PASSING WAVE COULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST LIMITED LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALMOST ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS THIS HAS EITHER BEEN INTRODUCED OR
MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST CWA-WIDE FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THURS MORNING. BY AND LARGE THOUGH...IN THEORY THIS SHOULD MAINLY
BE A SNOW EVENT AND NOT A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS EAST-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ONLY 5-10
MPH. LOW TEMPS WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IF ANY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AIMED INTO THE 19-26 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...OR
GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE A 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH
AGAIN APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.

IN CLOSING...ALTHOUGH POINT/COUNTY-SPECIFIC SNOWFALL FORECASTS
SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN "LITERALLY"...SETUPS SUCH AS THIS ARE EVEN
MORE SO THE CASE...AS ALTHOUGH NOBODY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1 OR 2 INCHES...THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THOSE PLACES
THAT HARDLY SEE A SNOWFLAKE...WHILE IN CONTRAST ITS POSSIBLE THAT
CONCENTRATED BANDING COULD PUSH A FEW SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO 3 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 171042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30
MINUTES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 171042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30
MINUTES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 170612
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RECENTLY PUBLISHED A FEW MINOR UPDATES THROUGH THESE NEXT 6 HOURS
THROUGH 12Z/6AM...MAINLY ADDRESSING:

1) AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS AGO...THE WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT IS AT LEAST GENERATING SOME RADAR ECHOES ALOFT...AND
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RETURNS ARE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND...FELT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY VALLEY/GREELEY/NANCE COUNTIES.

2) WITH A MIX OF BOTH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FAIRLY DECENT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NUDGED UP LOW
TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA FORECAST TO
DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 16-21 RANGE.

3) AT LEAST FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
MENTION INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT AFTER A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
RAP13/HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
CLOUDS...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 170612
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

RECENTLY PUBLISHED A FEW MINOR UPDATES THROUGH THESE NEXT 6 HOURS
THROUGH 12Z/6AM...MAINLY ADDRESSING:

1) AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS AGO...THE WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT IS AT LEAST GENERATING SOME RADAR ECHOES ALOFT...AND
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RETURNS ARE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND...FELT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY VALLEY/GREELEY/NANCE COUNTIES.

2) WITH A MIX OF BOTH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FAIRLY DECENT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NUDGED UP LOW
TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA FORECAST TO
DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 16-21 RANGE.

3) AT LEAST FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
MENTION INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT AFTER A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
RAP13/HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
CLOUDS...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 162343
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS LOOK
TO HOLD THRU THE NIGHT WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE MVFR CIGS MAY BE
REPLACED WITH VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 162343
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS LOOK
TO HOLD THRU THE NIGHT WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE MVFR CIGS MAY BE
REPLACED WITH VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 162159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM WINDS BY THIS EVENING. A GENTLE
EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZY CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS AT
TIMES. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
FORECAST MODELS AND CALL FOR GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 162159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD ON AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHERN KANSAS ZONES. THERE IS
HOPE THAT EASTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF
SUNLIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP.
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE COLD...CLOUDY...AND DRY.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND DAWN. A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT.

WEDNESDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...OVERALL
IT WILL STILL BE A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...BUT SOME ZONES
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES MAY POSSIBLY CATCH A
GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY ON IN
THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE
LONG TERM...WITH A MESSY UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE REALLY HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE TIMING/PATH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME WED
EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENT...AND HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS STARTING TO DRY OUT
BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE PRIMARY WX TYPE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME FZDZ. THANKFULLY...WITH WHAT SNOW DOES FALL...A WEAKER
SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH.

LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MESSY ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH. THEY ALSO SHOW THE BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND
LITTLE HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER THAT PASSES DURING THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...WITH
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POPS ARE LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOTABLE SWINGS EITHER WAY.  STARTS OUT NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 30S FOR
THURSDAY...WITH MORE 40S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM WINDS BY THIS EVENING. A GENTLE
EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZY CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS AT
TIMES. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
FORECAST MODELS AND CALL FOR GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 161744
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1144 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WITH LITTLE TO NO RISK OF PRECIPITATION DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND
TEMPERATURES/SKY COVER...AND THE OBVIOUS AFFECT ONE HAS ON THE
OTHER...ALONG WITH ANY INFLUENCE ON TEMPS FROM SNOW COVER IN
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0900Z/3AM...ITS
CERTAINLY BEEN A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT THAN THE PRECEDING ONE...AS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS NOW WELL-EAST INTO EASTERN IA. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED 500 MILLIBAR LOW OVER NORTHERN
IL...WHILE UPSTREAM FROM IT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES IS STARTING TO
OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED
NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. FARTHER WEST...THE NEXT BROAD
TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF CHALLENGES LOCALLY IN THE DAYS 2-4 PERIOD
AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE
SURFACE...CERTAINLY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN CONTINUED
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE ON A SLOW-BUT-
STEADY DOWNWARD TREND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 1004MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IL...AND AS A
BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED AT AROUND 1030MB OVER THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA STARTS TO EXERT INCREASING INFLUENCE LOCALLY. AS OF
THIS TIME HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH ARE
HANGING ON IN EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND MORE SO 15-20
MPH IN WESTERN ZONES. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE WERE LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTS OF SOME DICEY TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK
ROADS/LIMITED BLOWING SNOW IN/NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN CWA COUNTIES
OF VALLEY/GREELEY...BUT FORTUNATELY THE DECREASING SPEEDS SHOULD
AT LEAST IMPROVE THIS SITUATION SLIGHTLY. ACTUALLY THE NUMBER ONE
VERY SHORT-TERM CHALLENGE IS SKY COVER...AS WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD LOW STRATUS DECK AROUND 1500 FT
AGL...AN AREA OF CLEARING HAS RECENTLY BROKEN OUT OVER SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. TEMP-WISE...AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS THE COMBO OF CLOUDS
AND/OR BRISK BREEZES IS HOLDING UP THINGS FAIRLY WELL...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME DROPS COULD YET OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...THINK THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD HOLD UP NO COLDER THAN THE 17-20 RANGE.

LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE DAYTIME FORECAST AND STARTING WITH THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENE...THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD RIDGE AXIS
OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT FLATTENS A BIT AS IT DOES SO.
AT THE SURFACE...CERTAINLY THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM MONDAY
WILL BE THE DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES EASING UP AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED TO THE NORTH CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW THAT REACHES THE
LAKE HURON AREA BY SUNSET. SPEED-WISE...BY MID-DAY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY AROUND 15 MPH IN EASTERN ZONES...AND NO
MORE THAN 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND BY NIGHTFALL THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE DOWN TO ONLY 5-10 MPH. AS MENTIONED...SKY
COVER/TEMPS ARE REALLY THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY. MODELS
SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM CLEARLY HOLD ONTO PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITHIN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...BUT DO SHOW AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF MOSTLY SUNNY-
PARTLY CLOUDY POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL SKY COVER PRODUCT SPORTS A
SIMILAR THEME...IT SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THE CLEARING THAT OCCURS
COULD FILL BACK IN AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. EVEN IF PARTS OF THE CWA DO ENJOY APPRECIABLE CLEARING
AND WELCOMED SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK/LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER WESTERN
TROUGH. SO IN SUMMARY...GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTHEAST 1/2 TODAY...AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY KS ZONES...BUT SOME VARIATION FROM THIS IS
LIKELY AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY THIS TRICKY SKY COVER WILL WORK IN
CONCERT WITH THE GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE OVER
SEVERAL NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES TO MAKE HIGH TEMPS A BIT
CHALLENGING AS WELL. WITH RAW MET/MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING A BIT TOO
COOL ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES...OPTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST BY TRYING TO STRIKE SOME KIND OF
BALANCE BETWEEN VARIABLE SNOW COVER AND SKY COVER. THE NET
RESULT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT...YIELDS ONLY MID-UPPER 20S
WITHIN MANY NORTHERN/WESTERN NEB COUNTIES...MAINLY LOW 30S IN
EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEB ZONES...AND GENERALLY MID 30S IN KS ZONES.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
FEATURES THE AFOREMENTIONED/RATHER SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CROSSING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE MORE ENERGETIC
WAVES REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY WELL-UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY WEAK NATURE OF THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE...MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND HAVE THE
ENTIRE CWA IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER CATEGORY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A PRECIP-FREE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY
MEASURABLE) AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS SUCH...WOULD NOT BE
TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF FLURRIES
TRY TO GET GOING LATE IN THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN
CWA IN RESPONSE TO SOME FAIRLY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSED IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET STREAK.
DESPITE THE LIGHT BREEZES...THE EXPECTED FAIRLY HIGH SKY COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY FALLING OFF...AND AS A RESULT KEPT
LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE A 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 15-20 RANGE...EXCEPT FOR
COLDER READINGS AROUND 10 FAR NORTH. LASTLY...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
VALUES OF FORECAST LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH IN FOG FORMATION TO INTRODUCE EVEN A PATCHY
MENTION FOR LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH 03Z SREF/06Z NAM VISIBILITY
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAYBE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN CWA COULD BEAR WATCHING FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY IF ENOUGH
SNOW MANAGES TO MELT TODAY TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN EJECTING A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTER...DROPPING SOME QUICK
LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT
TIMES...IT APPEARS THAT WE COULD HAVE A LOSS OF SATURATION IN MID-
LEVELS. THIS IS GENERALLY LOWER THAN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THERE IS NOT WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WAS THINKING ABOUT
STICKING IN POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE WAVE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT I HAVE DOUBTS
THAT MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AT ALL. I STUCK IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE NAM DOES
ADVERTISE SOME SPARSE NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKELY BY ANY MEANS.

I KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF FRIDAY AS THE MAIN WAVE IS TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY FAR TOO SOUTH TO GIVE US
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER
PROGRESSIVE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW MAKES THINGS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS
SMALL WAVES AND PERTURBATIONS MAY NECESSITATE SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DOWN THE ROAD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MONDAY...DEPENDING
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...YET REMAINING FAIRLY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM WINDS BY THIS EVENING. A GENTLE
EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZY CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS AT
TIMES. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
FORECAST MODELS AND CALL FOR GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 161744
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1144 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WITH LITTLE TO NO RISK OF PRECIPITATION DURING THESE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND
TEMPERATURES/SKY COVER...AND THE OBVIOUS AFFECT ONE HAS ON THE
OTHER...ALONG WITH ANY INFLUENCE ON TEMPS FROM SNOW COVER IN
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0900Z/3AM...ITS
CERTAINLY BEEN A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT THAN THE PRECEDING ONE...AS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS NOW WELL-EAST INTO EASTERN IA. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED 500 MILLIBAR LOW OVER NORTHERN
IL...WHILE UPSTREAM FROM IT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES IS STARTING TO
OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED
NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. FARTHER WEST...THE NEXT BROAD
TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF CHALLENGES LOCALLY IN THE DAYS 2-4 PERIOD
AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW. AT THE
SURFACE...CERTAINLY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN CONTINUED
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE ON A SLOW-BUT-
STEADY DOWNWARD TREND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 1004MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IL...AND AS A
BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED AT AROUND 1030MB OVER THE DAKOTAS/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA STARTS TO EXERT INCREASING INFLUENCE LOCALLY. AS OF
THIS TIME HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH ARE
HANGING ON IN EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND MORE SO 15-20
MPH IN WESTERN ZONES. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE WERE LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTS OF SOME DICEY TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK
ROADS/LIMITED BLOWING SNOW IN/NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN CWA COUNTIES
OF VALLEY/GREELEY...BUT FORTUNATELY THE DECREASING SPEEDS SHOULD
AT LEAST IMPROVE THIS SITUATION SLIGHTLY. ACTUALLY THE NUMBER ONE
VERY SHORT-TERM CHALLENGE IS SKY COVER...AS WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD LOW STRATUS DECK AROUND 1500 FT
AGL...AN AREA OF CLEARING HAS RECENTLY BROKEN OUT OVER SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. TEMP-WISE...AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS THE COMBO OF CLOUDS
AND/OR BRISK BREEZES IS HOLDING UP THINGS FAIRLY WELL...AND
ALTHOUGH SOME DROPS COULD YET OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...THINK THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD HOLD UP NO COLDER THAN THE 17-20 RANGE.

LOOKING FORWARD INTO THE DAYTIME FORECAST AND STARTING WITH THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENE...THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD RIDGE AXIS
OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT FLATTENS A BIT AS IT DOES SO.
AT THE SURFACE...CERTAINLY THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM MONDAY
WILL BE THE DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES EASING UP AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED TO THE NORTH CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW THAT REACHES THE
LAKE HURON AREA BY SUNSET. SPEED-WISE...BY MID-DAY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY AROUND 15 MPH IN EASTERN ZONES...AND NO
MORE THAN 10-15 MPH IN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND BY NIGHTFALL THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE DOWN TO ONLY 5-10 MPH. AS MENTIONED...SKY
COVER/TEMPS ARE REALLY THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY. MODELS
SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM CLEARLY HOLD ONTO PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITHIN ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...BUT DO SHOW AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF MOSTLY SUNNY-
PARTLY CLOUDY POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR LOW LEVEL SKY COVER PRODUCT SPORTS A
SIMILAR THEME...IT SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THE CLEARING THAT OCCURS
COULD FILL BACK IN AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. EVEN IF PARTS OF THE CWA DO ENJOY APPRECIABLE CLEARING
AND WELCOMED SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK/LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER WESTERN
TROUGH. SO IN SUMMARY...GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTHEAST 1/2 TODAY...AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY KS ZONES...BUT SOME VARIATION FROM THIS IS
LIKELY AS WELL. OBVIOUSLY THIS TRICKY SKY COVER WILL WORK IN
CONCERT WITH THE GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE OVER
SEVERAL NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES TO MAKE HIGH TEMPS A BIT
CHALLENGING AS WELL. WITH RAW MET/MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING A BIT TOO
COOL ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES...OPTED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST BY TRYING TO STRIKE SOME KIND OF
BALANCE BETWEEN VARIABLE SNOW COVER AND SKY COVER. THE NET
RESULT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT...YIELDS ONLY MID-UPPER 20S
WITHIN MANY NORTHERN/WESTERN NEB COUNTIES...MAINLY LOW 30S IN
EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEB ZONES...AND GENERALLY MID 30S IN KS ZONES.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE
FEATURES THE AFOREMENTIONED/RATHER SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE CROSSING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE MORE ENERGETIC
WAVES REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY WELL-UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY WEAK NATURE OF THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE...MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DECENT
COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND HAVE THE
ENTIRE CWA IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER CATEGORY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A PRECIP-FREE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY
MEASURABLE) AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS SUCH...WOULD NOT BE
TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF FLURRIES
TRY TO GET GOING LATE IN THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN
CWA IN RESPONSE TO SOME FAIRLY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
FOCUSED IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET STREAK.
DESPITE THE LIGHT BREEZES...THE EXPECTED FAIRLY HIGH SKY COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY FALLING OFF...AND AS A RESULT KEPT
LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE A 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 15-20 RANGE...EXCEPT FOR
COLDER READINGS AROUND 10 FAR NORTH. LASTLY...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
VALUES OF FORECAST LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY...CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH IN FOG FORMATION TO INTRODUCE EVEN A PATCHY
MENTION FOR LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH 03Z SREF/06Z NAM VISIBILITY
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAYBE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN CWA COULD BEAR WATCHING FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY IF ENOUGH
SNOW MANAGES TO MELT TODAY TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN EJECTING A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTER...DROPPING SOME QUICK
LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT
TIMES...IT APPEARS THAT WE COULD HAVE A LOSS OF SATURATION IN MID-
LEVELS. THIS IS GENERALLY LOWER THAN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THERE IS NOT WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. WAS THINKING ABOUT
STICKING IN POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE WAVE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT I HAVE DOUBTS
THAT MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AT ALL. I STUCK IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE NAM DOES
ADVERTISE SOME SPARSE NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKELY BY ANY MEANS.

I KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF FRIDAY AS THE MAIN WAVE IS TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY FAR TOO SOUTH TO GIVE US
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER
PROGRESSIVE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW MAKES THINGS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS
SMALL WAVES AND PERTURBATIONS MAY NECESSITATE SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DOWN THE ROAD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MONDAY...DEPENDING
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...YET REMAINING FAIRLY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EVEN CALM WINDS BY THIS EVENING. A GENTLE
EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZY CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS AT
TIMES. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
FORECAST MODELS AND CALL FOR GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




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