Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KGID 061714
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...GENERALLY
TOPPING OUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES
THE NE/SD BOARDERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WHAT AN INCREDIBLY
COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE TIME FRAME WE
ARE LOOKING AT ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A
COMBO OF MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISKS ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND ALSO MAINTAINED A CWA-WIDE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NEITHER SETUP CURRENTLY HAS
"OUTBREAK" WRITTEN ALL OVER IT...THERE ARE PROS AND CONS IN PLACE
THAT COULD RESULT IN EITHER SETUP EITHER PRODUCING LESS OR
POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT WITH
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATIONS. ALTHOUGH OUR PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS TENDED TO FOCUS MORE ON
SUNDAY (AND POSSIBLY RIGHTFULLY SO)...WANT TO ALSO MAKE IT CLEAR
THAT ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CANNOT BE IGNORED
EITHER AS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP
AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
WEST-EAST FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN CWA
COULD SEE A BRIEF/SNEAKY TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
SUNDAY THEN POSSIBLY FEATURING A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER "JUST
RIGHT". THAT BEING SAID...MESOSCALE DETAILS/UNCERTAINTY ARE A BIG
PLAYER AS ALWAYS...AND IT`S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD ENHANCE OR DETRACT FROM SUNDAY`S THREAT.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AS
WELL FOR AT LEAST A LINGERING STRONG STORM THREAT (THIS DAY IS
CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC BUT SREF SEVERE PROBS SUGGEST A
NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT THIS DAY).

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS:
FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID 60S
AND MID 70S...AND LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. IN
OTHER WORDS...AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO LATE-SEASON FROST/FREEZE
THREAT IS FORESEEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE 12TH. IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY...AS
THERE COULD EASILY BE A 15-DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY SHARP WEST-EAST
FRONT THAT WILL SEPARATE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH FROM
WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
SUBJECT TO FURTHER FINE TUNING...WILL AIM FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 70
FAR NORTH...MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND NEAR 85 FAR SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-TERM FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY-HIGHER
POCKETS VERY LIKELY. FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT
PRETTY WELL THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES TO FLARE UP IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME.

NOW FINISHING UP WITH SOME ATTEMPTED DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME: DESPITE AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CWA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ISN`T THE KIND OF DAY TO
CHANGE YOUR PLANS FOR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DRY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP
INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-
EAST SURFACE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
CAPPING SHOULD LARGELY KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT
BAY...ESPECIALLY FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY NEED WATCHED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WITH THE GLARING EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST
NAM MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS (INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF) ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE CWA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) WERE KEPT AT "LIKELY"
PERCENTAGES ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING.
FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES IN
ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MODE REMAINS DISCRETE FOR A TIME. AM NOT
OVERLY-KEEN ON THE "PATCHY FOG" INCLUDED FOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IT WAS INTRODUCED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER
AND DECIDED TO LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: FOR ONLY BEING 2 DAYS AWAY...A TON OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
MORNINGS LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET/LARGELY STORM-FREE AS THE AREA SITS IN
BETWEEN WAVES. BUT THEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE NEXT LOBE OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN WEST-EAST SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL RESIDE (COULD
BE MODULATED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OUTFLOW)...BUT AS LONG AS THE AREA
DOES NOT REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST KS AREA. THE
CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS VERY JUSTIFIED...AND ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GENERAL SEVERE
RISK INCREASED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: DURING THIS TIME THE INITIAL/MAIN SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER AND
FINALLY EAST OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY DECENT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE AND AT LEAST A STRONG STORM THREAT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: LOWER RAIN CHANCES (AND FORTUNATELY
LOWER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES) PERSIST DURING THIS TIME...AS
A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME...THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE DAYS 4-7 INSISTED ON KEEPING AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS GOING AS THE
SECONDARY TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOUTH
WINDS TODAY BUT THEY WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 061058
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...GENERALLY
TOPPING OUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES
THE NE/SD BOARDERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WHAT AN INCREDIBLY
COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE TIME FRAME WE
ARE LOOKING AT ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A
COMBO OF MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISKS ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND ALSO MAINTAINED A CWA-WIDE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NEITHER SETUP CURRENTLY HAS
"OUTBREAK" WRITTEN ALL OVER IT...THERE ARE PROS AND CONS IN PLACE
THAT COULD RESULT IN EITHER SETUP EITHER PRODUCING LESS OR
POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT WITH
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATIONS. ALTHOUGH OUR PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS TENDED TO FOCUS MORE ON
SUNDAY (AND POSSIBLY RIGHTFULLY SO)...WANT TO ALSO MAKE IT CLEAR
THAT ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CANNOT BE IGNORED
EITHER AS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP
AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
WEST-EAST FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN CWA
COULD SEE A BRIEF/SNEAKY TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
SUNDAY THEN POSSIBLY FEATURING A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER "JUST
RIGHT". THAT BEING SAID...MESOSCALE DETAILS/UNCERTAINTY ARE A BIG
PLAYER AS ALWAYS...AND IT`S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD ENHANCE OR DETRACT FROM SUNDAY`S THREAT.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AS
WELL FOR AT LEAST A LINGERING STRONG STORM THREAT (THIS DAY IS
CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC BUT SREF SEVERE PROBS SUGGEST A
NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT THIS DAY).

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS:
FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID 60S
AND MID 70S...AND LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. IN
OTHER WORDS...AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO LATE-SEASON FROST/FREEZE
THREAT IS FORESEEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE 12TH. IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY...AS
THERE COULD EASILY BE A 15-DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY SHARP WEST-EAST
FRONT THAT WILL SEPARATE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH FROM
WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
SUBJECT TO FURTHER FINE TUNING...WILL AIM FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 70
FAR NORTH...MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND NEAR 85 FAR SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-TERM FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY-HIGHER
POCKETS VERY LIKELY. FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT
PRETTY WELL THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES TO FLARE UP IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME.

NOW FINISHING UP WITH SOME ATTEMPTED DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME: DESPITE AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CWA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ISN`T THE KIND OF DAY TO
CHANGE YOUR PLANS FOR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DRY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP
INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-
EAST SURFACE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
CAPPING SHOULD LARGELY KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT
BAY...ESPECIALLY FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY NEED WATCHED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WITH THE GLARING EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST
NAM MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS (INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF) ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE CWA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) WERE KEPT AT "LIKELY"
PERCENTAGES ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING.
FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES IN
ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MODE REMAINS DISCRETE FOR A TIME. AM NOT
OVERLY-KEEN ON THE "PATCHY FOG" INCLUDED FOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IT WAS INTRODUCED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER
AND DECIDED TO LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: FOR ONLY BEING 2 DAYS AWAY...A TON OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
MORNINGS LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET/LARGELY STORM-FREE AS THE AREA SITS IN
BETWEEN WAVES. BUT THEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE NEXT LOBE OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN WEST-EAST SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL RESIDE (COULD
BE MODULATED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OUTFLOW)...BUT AS LONG AS THE AREA
DOES NOT REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST KS AREA. THE
CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS VERY JUSTIFIED...AND ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GENERAL SEVERE
RISK INCREASED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: DURING THIS TIME THE INITIAL/MAIN SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER AND
FINALLY EAST OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY DECENT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE AND AT LEAST A STRONG STORM THREAT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: LOWER RAIN CHANCES (AND FORTUNATELY
LOWER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES) PERSIST DURING THIS TIME...AS
A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME...THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE DAYS 4-7 INSISTED ON KEEPING AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS GOING AS THE
SECONDARY TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A -TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE VERY MODEST LLWS THIS MORNING TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS AND
INCREASE...BECOMING GUSTY TO ABOUT 25KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE TERMINALS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
INCREASING LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHTTIME OF LLWS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 061058
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...GENERALLY
TOPPING OUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES
THE NE/SD BOARDERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WHAT AN INCREDIBLY
COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE TIME FRAME WE
ARE LOOKING AT ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A
COMBO OF MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISKS ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND ALSO MAINTAINED A CWA-WIDE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NEITHER SETUP CURRENTLY HAS
"OUTBREAK" WRITTEN ALL OVER IT...THERE ARE PROS AND CONS IN PLACE
THAT COULD RESULT IN EITHER SETUP EITHER PRODUCING LESS OR
POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT WITH
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATIONS. ALTHOUGH OUR PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS TENDED TO FOCUS MORE ON
SUNDAY (AND POSSIBLY RIGHTFULLY SO)...WANT TO ALSO MAKE IT CLEAR
THAT ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CANNOT BE IGNORED
EITHER AS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP
AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
WEST-EAST FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN CWA
COULD SEE A BRIEF/SNEAKY TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
SUNDAY THEN POSSIBLY FEATURING A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER "JUST
RIGHT". THAT BEING SAID...MESOSCALE DETAILS/UNCERTAINTY ARE A BIG
PLAYER AS ALWAYS...AND IT`S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD ENHANCE OR DETRACT FROM SUNDAY`S THREAT.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AS
WELL FOR AT LEAST A LINGERING STRONG STORM THREAT (THIS DAY IS
CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC BUT SREF SEVERE PROBS SUGGEST A
NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT THIS DAY).

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS:
FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID 60S
AND MID 70S...AND LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. IN
OTHER WORDS...AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO LATE-SEASON FROST/FREEZE
THREAT IS FORESEEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE 12TH. IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY...AS
THERE COULD EASILY BE A 15-DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY SHARP WEST-EAST
FRONT THAT WILL SEPARATE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH FROM
WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
SUBJECT TO FURTHER FINE TUNING...WILL AIM FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 70
FAR NORTH...MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND NEAR 85 FAR SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-TERM FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY-HIGHER
POCKETS VERY LIKELY. FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT
PRETTY WELL THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES TO FLARE UP IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME.

NOW FINISHING UP WITH SOME ATTEMPTED DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME: DESPITE AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CWA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ISN`T THE KIND OF DAY TO
CHANGE YOUR PLANS FOR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DRY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP
INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-
EAST SURFACE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
CAPPING SHOULD LARGELY KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT
BAY...ESPECIALLY FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY NEED WATCHED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WITH THE GLARING EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST
NAM MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS (INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF) ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE CWA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) WERE KEPT AT "LIKELY"
PERCENTAGES ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING.
FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES IN
ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MODE REMAINS DISCRETE FOR A TIME. AM NOT
OVERLY-KEEN ON THE "PATCHY FOG" INCLUDED FOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IT WAS INTRODUCED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER
AND DECIDED TO LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: FOR ONLY BEING 2 DAYS AWAY...A TON OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
MORNINGS LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET/LARGELY STORM-FREE AS THE AREA SITS IN
BETWEEN WAVES. BUT THEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE NEXT LOBE OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN WEST-EAST SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL RESIDE (COULD
BE MODULATED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OUTFLOW)...BUT AS LONG AS THE AREA
DOES NOT REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST KS AREA. THE
CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS VERY JUSTIFIED...AND ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GENERAL SEVERE
RISK INCREASED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: DURING THIS TIME THE INITIAL/MAIN SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER AND
FINALLY EAST OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY DECENT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE AND AT LEAST A STRONG STORM THREAT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: LOWER RAIN CHANCES (AND FORTUNATELY
LOWER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES) PERSIST DURING THIS TIME...AS
A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME...THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE DAYS 4-7 INSISTED ON KEEPING AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS GOING AS THE
SECONDARY TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A -TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE VERY MODEST LLWS THIS MORNING TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS AND
INCREASE...BECOMING GUSTY TO ABOUT 25KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE TERMINALS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
INCREASING LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHTTIME OF LLWS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 061001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...GENERALLY
TOPPING OUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES
THE NE/SD BOARDERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WHAT AN INCREDIBLY
COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE TIME FRAME WE
ARE LOOKING AT ESPECIALLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS MAINTAINED A
COMBO OF MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISKS ACROSS THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND ALSO MAINTAINED A CWA-WIDE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NEITHER SETUP CURRENTLY HAS
"OUTBREAK" WRITTEN ALL OVER IT...THERE ARE PROS AND CONS IN PLACE
THAT COULD RESULT IN EITHER SETUP EITHER PRODUCING LESS OR
POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT WITH
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATIONS. ALTHOUGH OUR PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS TENDED TO FOCUS MORE ON
SUNDAY (AND POSSIBLY RIGHTFULLY SO)...WANT TO ALSO MAKE IT CLEAR
THAT ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CANNOT BE IGNORED
EITHER AS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DEVELOP
AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
WEST-EAST FRONT. AS IS TYPICAL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ESPECIALLY THE FAR WESTERN CWA
COULD SEE A BRIEF/SNEAKY TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
SUNDAY THEN POSSIBLY FEATURING A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER "JUST
RIGHT". THAT BEING SAID...MESOSCALE DETAILS/UNCERTAINTY ARE A BIG
PLAYER AS ALWAYS...AND IT`S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD ENHANCE OR DETRACT FROM SUNDAY`S THREAT.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK
SHOULD CLOSE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AS
WELL FOR AT LEAST A LINGERING STRONG STORM THREAT (THIS DAY IS
CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC BUT SREF SEVERE PROBS SUGGEST A
NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT THIS DAY).

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS:
FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE 6
DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID 60S
AND MID 70S...AND LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND MID 50S. IN
OTHER WORDS...AT LEAST FOR NOW...NO LATE-SEASON FROST/FREEZE
THREAT IS FORESEEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE 12TH. IN THE NEARER-
TERM...SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY...AS
THERE COULD EASILY BE A 15-DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY SHARP WEST-EAST
FRONT THAT WILL SEPARATE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH FROM
WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO ITS SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
SUBJECT TO FURTHER FINE TUNING...WILL AIM FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 70
FAR NORTH...MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND NEAR 85 FAR SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AT LEAST
SHORT-TERM FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY-HIGHER
POCKETS VERY LIKELY. FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT
PRETTY WELL THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES TO FLARE UP IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT TIME.

NOW FINISHING UP WITH SOME ATTEMPTED DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS:

SATURDAY DAYTIME: DESPITE AT LEAST SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CWA-WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ISN`T THE KIND OF DAY TO
CHANGE YOUR PLANS FOR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DRY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP
INTO WESTERN NEB/KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-
EAST SURFACE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
CAPPING SHOULD LARGELY KEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT
BAY...ESPECIALLY FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY NEED WATCHED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WITH THE GLARING EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST
NAM MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS (INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF) ARE FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE CWA...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) WERE KEPT AT "LIKELY"
PERCENTAGES ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING.
FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES IN
ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MODE REMAINS DISCRETE FOR A TIME. AM NOT
OVERLY-KEEN ON THE "PATCHY FOG" INCLUDED FOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IT WAS INTRODUCED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER
AND DECIDED TO LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.

SUNDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: FOR ONLY BEING 2 DAYS AWAY...A TON OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
MORNINGS LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET/LARGELY STORM-FREE AS THE AREA SITS IN
BETWEEN WAVES. BUT THEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE NEXT LOBE OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN WEST-EAST SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL RESIDE (COULD
BE MODULATED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OUTFLOW)...BUT AS LONG AS THE AREA
DOES NOT REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST KS AREA. THE
CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS VERY JUSTIFIED...AND ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GENERAL SEVERE
RISK INCREASED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: DURING THIS TIME THE INITIAL/MAIN SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER AND
FINALLY EAST OF THE CWA. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY DECENT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE AND AT LEAST A STRONG STORM THREAT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TUESDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: LOWER RAIN CHANCES (AND FORTUNATELY
LOWER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES) PERSIST DURING THIS TIME...AS
A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY MOST
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME...THE DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE DAYS 4-7 INSISTED ON KEEPING AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS GOING AS THE
SECONDARY TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME COMPARED TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MARGINAL LLWS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO EASE BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LLWS DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF AS IT WOULD ONLY BE AT THE VERY TAIL AND MORE LIKELY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD OF THE TAF.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 060903
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...GENERALLY
TOPPING OUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS.

LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES
THE NE/SD BOARDERS. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. EVENSO...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THOUGHTS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE OUT AROUND 5 AM CDT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MARGINAL LLWS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO EASE BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LLWS DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF AS IT WOULD ONLY BE AT THE VERY TAIL AND MORE LIKELY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD OF THE TAF.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 060538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHAT IS HELPING TO
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-CITIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN. WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...I AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. THE JET WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS OR SO...SO WIND
MAY INCREASE A TOUCH IN OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS NEAR
50...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF THE MARK FOR WHAT IS AVERAGE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...MORE IN THE 15 TO 18 C RANGE RATHER THAN THE 12 TO 15 C WE
ARE SEEING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PUTTING US WITHIN THE REALM OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY WITHOUT MUCH PROBLEM. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY...PROBABLY IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE. AGAIN...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SO DRY
THAT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AND MOST INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER N AMERICA. A VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CONUS AND N AMERICA AND THE ADJOINING OCEANS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES IN A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN.

A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NE USA FRI-SUN...SENDING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS TROF WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL WOBBLE THRU THE WRN USA
SAT-SUN...BEING STRETCHED AND PULLED AS VARIOUS VORT MAXIMA ORBIT
ITS PERIPHERY. THE 1ST VORT MAX OF INTEREST WILL LIFT INTO CO SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY 12Z/SUN THIS VORT MAX WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY LOW AND LIFT N ALONG THE NEB/WY BORDER DURING THE DAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE LAGGING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW WILL ADVANCE
INTO CO/NM TO THE S OF THE LOW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE PLAINS MON.
A POTENT TROF WILL DIVE OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN-
MON...WITH A LOW PROBABLY CLOSING OFF OVER MT/WY/DAKOTAS TUE. THE
LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT-OFF AND
LINGER OVER THE NRN PLAINS WED-THU AS PART OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE
CNTRL USA.

SURFACE: THE CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER SAT...WHILE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER CO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ROUGH CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
EC/NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN IS THAT IT WILL SINK INTO KS SUN...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS I-70. BUT DOES THE FRONT LIFT BACK INTO NEB IN THE
AFTERNOON? A BIG AND IMPORTANT QUESTION. THE SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS WRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY 00Z/TUE...WITH A DRY TROF (DRYLINE/LEE
TROF COMBO) ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. CANADIAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE SHOULD SINK THRU MON NIGHT WITH THIS FRONT STALLING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY DAYBREAK WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WED-THU...BUT THAT`S NO GUARANTEE OF DRY WX WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT NEARBY.

THE SPECIFICS ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND TUE PENDING WHAT HAPPENS ALOFT WITH THE
CUT-OFF.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

FOR BREVITY SAKE THE BOTTOM LINE IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN RE-
ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF SVR TSTMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY AND PROVIDE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT. MUCH CAN CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW...

SAT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EML ADVECTED OVER THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. HOWEVER...SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE IN FROM THE W SAT EVE/NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SVR WX...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. THE COLD OUTFLOW FROM THESE TSTMS COULD EFFECTIVELY SHOVE
THE FRONT FURTHER S TO NEAR I-70.

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A BAND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FOG SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA N
OF THE FRONT. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER. AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL IN HIGH TEMPS SUN. AND IF THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK N INTO THE FCST AREA...WE MAY NOT BE NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH.

SUN: LOW PRES WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS ALONG AND E-W ORIENTED FRONT.
A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...S AND E OF THE LOW. N OF
THE FRONT IT ALL DEPENDS ON IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AND THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SVR TSTMS ALSO HINGES ON IF THE FRONT LIFTS N AT ALL.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS.

MON-THU: DRY MUCH OF THE TIME WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY ROUGHLY 4 PM-9 PM. TUE NIGHT THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROF COULD KEEP TSTM POTENTIAL GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MARGINAL LLWS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO EASE BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LLWS DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF AS IT WOULD ONLY BE AT THE VERY TAIL AND MORE LIKELY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD OF THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 052324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHAT IS HELPING TO
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-CITIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN. WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...I AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. THE JET WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS OR SO...SO WIND
MAY INCREASE A TOUCH IN OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS NEAR
50...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF THE MARK FOR WHAT IS AVERAGE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...MORE IN THE 15 TO 18 C RANGE RATHER THAN THE 12 TO 15 C WE
ARE SEEING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PUTTING US WITHIN THE REALM OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY WITHOUT MUCH PROBLEM. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY...PROBABLY IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE. AGAIN...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SO DRY
THAT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AND MOST INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER N AMERICA. A VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CONUS AND N AMERICA AND THE ADJOINING OCEANS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES IN A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN.

A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NE USA FRI-SUN...SENDING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS TROF WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL WOBBLE THRU THE WRN USA
SAT-SUN...BEING STRETCHED AND PULLED AS VARIOUS VORT MAXIMA ORBIT
ITS PERIPHERY. THE 1ST VORT MAX OF INTEREST WILL LIFT INTO CO SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY 12Z/SUN THIS VORT MAX WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY LOW AND LIFT N ALONG THE NEB/WY BORDER DURING THE DAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE LAGGING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW WILL ADVANCE
INTO CO/NM TO THE S OF THE LOW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE PLAINS MON.
A POTENT TROF WILL DIVE OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN-
MON...WITH A LOW PROBABLY CLOSING OFF OVER MT/WY/DAKOTAS TUE. THE
LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT-OFF AND
LINGER OVER THE NRN PLAINS WED-THU AS PART OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE
CNTRL USA.

SURFACE: THE CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER SAT...WHILE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER CO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ROUGH CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
EC/NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN IS THAT IT WILL SINK INTO KS SUN...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS I-70. BUT DOES THE FRONT LIFT BACK INTO NEB IN THE
AFTERNOON? A BIG AND IMPORTANT QUESTION. THE SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS WRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY 00Z/TUE...WITH A DRY TROF (DRYLINE/LEE
TROF COMBO) ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. CANADIAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE SHOULD SINK THRU MON NIGHT WITH THIS FRONT STALLING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY DAYBREAK WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WED-THU...BUT THAT`S NO GUARANTEE OF DRY WX WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT NEARBY.

THE SPECIFICS ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND TUE PENDING WHAT HAPPENS ALOFT WITH THE
CUT-OFF.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

FOR BREVITY SAKE THE BOTTOM LINE IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN RE-
ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF SVR TSTMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY AND PROVIDE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT. MUCH CAN CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW...

SAT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EML ADVECTED OVER THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. HOWEVER...SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE IN FROM THE W SAT EVE/NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SVR WX...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. THE COLD OUTFLOW FROM THESE TSTMS COULD EFFECTIVELY SHOVE
THE FRONT FURTHER S TO NEAR I-70.

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A BAND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FOG SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA N
OF THE FRONT. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER. AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL IN HIGH TEMPS SUN. AND IF THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK N INTO THE FCST AREA...WE MAY NOT BE NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH.

SUN: LOW PRES WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS ALONG AND E-W ORIENTED FRONT.
A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...S AND E OF THE LOW. N OF
THE FRONT IT ALL DEPENDS ON IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AND THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SVR TSTMS ALSO HINGES ON IF THE FRONT LIFTS N AT ALL.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS.

MON-THU: DRY MUCH OF THE TIME WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY ROUGHLY 4 PM-9 PM. TUE NIGHT THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROF COULD KEEP TSTM POTENTIAL GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT





000
FXUS63 KGID 052324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHAT IS HELPING TO
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-CITIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN. WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...I AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. THE JET WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS OR SO...SO WIND
MAY INCREASE A TOUCH IN OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS NEAR
50...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF THE MARK FOR WHAT IS AVERAGE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...MORE IN THE 15 TO 18 C RANGE RATHER THAN THE 12 TO 15 C WE
ARE SEEING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PUTTING US WITHIN THE REALM OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY WITHOUT MUCH PROBLEM. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY...PROBABLY IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE. AGAIN...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SO DRY
THAT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AND MOST INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER N AMERICA. A VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CONUS AND N AMERICA AND THE ADJOINING OCEANS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES IN A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN.

A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NE USA FRI-SUN...SENDING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS TROF WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL WOBBLE THRU THE WRN USA
SAT-SUN...BEING STRETCHED AND PULLED AS VARIOUS VORT MAXIMA ORBIT
ITS PERIPHERY. THE 1ST VORT MAX OF INTEREST WILL LIFT INTO CO SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY 12Z/SUN THIS VORT MAX WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY LOW AND LIFT N ALONG THE NEB/WY BORDER DURING THE DAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE LAGGING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW WILL ADVANCE
INTO CO/NM TO THE S OF THE LOW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE PLAINS MON.
A POTENT TROF WILL DIVE OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN-
MON...WITH A LOW PROBABLY CLOSING OFF OVER MT/WY/DAKOTAS TUE. THE
LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT-OFF AND
LINGER OVER THE NRN PLAINS WED-THU AS PART OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE
CNTRL USA.

SURFACE: THE CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER SAT...WHILE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER CO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ROUGH CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
EC/NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN IS THAT IT WILL SINK INTO KS SUN...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS I-70. BUT DOES THE FRONT LIFT BACK INTO NEB IN THE
AFTERNOON? A BIG AND IMPORTANT QUESTION. THE SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS WRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY 00Z/TUE...WITH A DRY TROF (DRYLINE/LEE
TROF COMBO) ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. CANADIAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE SHOULD SINK THRU MON NIGHT WITH THIS FRONT STALLING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY DAYBREAK WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WED-THU...BUT THAT`S NO GUARANTEE OF DRY WX WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT NEARBY.

THE SPECIFICS ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND TUE PENDING WHAT HAPPENS ALOFT WITH THE
CUT-OFF.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

FOR BREVITY SAKE THE BOTTOM LINE IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN RE-
ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF SVR TSTMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY AND PROVIDE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT. MUCH CAN CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW...

SAT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EML ADVECTED OVER THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. HOWEVER...SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE IN FROM THE W SAT EVE/NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SVR WX...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. THE COLD OUTFLOW FROM THESE TSTMS COULD EFFECTIVELY SHOVE
THE FRONT FURTHER S TO NEAR I-70.

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A BAND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FOG SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA N
OF THE FRONT. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER. AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL IN HIGH TEMPS SUN. AND IF THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK N INTO THE FCST AREA...WE MAY NOT BE NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH.

SUN: LOW PRES WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS ALONG AND E-W ORIENTED FRONT.
A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...S AND E OF THE LOW. N OF
THE FRONT IT ALL DEPENDS ON IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AND THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SVR TSTMS ALSO HINGES ON IF THE FRONT LIFTS N AT ALL.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS.

MON-THU: DRY MUCH OF THE TIME WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY ROUGHLY 4 PM-9 PM. TUE NIGHT THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROF COULD KEEP TSTM POTENTIAL GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT





000
FXUS63 KGID 051949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHAT IS HELPING TO
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-CITIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN. WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...I AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. THE JET WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS OR SO...SO WIND
MAY INCREASE A TOUCH IN OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS NEAR
50...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF THE MARK FOR WHAT IS AVERAGE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...MORE IN THE 15 TO 18 C RANGE RATHER THAN THE 12 TO 15 C WE
ARE SEEING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PUTTING US WITHIN THE REALM OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY WITHOUT MUCH PROBLEM. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY...PROBABLY IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE. AGAIN...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SO DRY
THAT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AND MOST INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER N AMERICA. A VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CONUS AND N AMERICA AND THE ADJOINING OCEANS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES IN A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN.

A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NE USA FRI-SUN...SENDING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS TROF WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL WOBBLE THRU THE WRN USA
SAT-SUN...BEING STRETCHED AND PULLED AS VARIOUS VORT MAXIMA ORBIT
ITS PERIPHERY. THE 1ST VORT MAX OF INTEREST WILL LIFT INTO CO SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY 12Z/SUN THIS VORT MAX WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY LOW AND LIFT N ALONG THE NEB/WY BORDER DURING THE DAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE LAGGING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW WILL ADVANCE
INTO CO/NM TO THE S OF THE LOW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE PLAINS MON.
A POTENT TROF WILL DIVE OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN-
MON...WITH A LOW PROBABLY CLOSING OFF OVER MT/WY/DAKOTAS TUE. THE
LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT-OFF AND
LINGER OVER THE NRN PLAINS WED-THU AS PART OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE
CNTRL USA.

SURFACE: THE CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER SAT...WHILE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER CO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ROUGH CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
EC/NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN IS THAT IT WILL SINK INTO KS SUN...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS I-70. BUT DOES THE FRONT LIFT BACK INTO NEB IN THE
AFTERNOON? A BIG AND IMPORTANT QUESTION. THE SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS WRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY 00Z/TUE...WITH A DRY TROF (DRYLINE/LEE
TROF COMBO) ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. CANADIAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE SHOULD SINK THRU MON NIGHT WITH THIS FRONT STALLING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY DAYBREAK WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WED-THU...BUT THAT`S NO GUARANTEE OF DRY WX WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT NEARBY.

THE SPECIFICS ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND TUE PENDING WHAT HAPPENS ALOFT WITH THE
CUT-OFF.


SOME DAILY DETAILS...

FOR BREVITY SAKE THE BOTTOM LINE IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN RE-
ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF SVR TSTMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY AND PROVIDE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT. MUCH CAN CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW...

SAT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EML ADVECTED OVER THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. HOWEVER...SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE IN FROM THE W SAT EVE/NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SVR WX...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. THE COLD OUTFLOW FROM THESE TSTMS COULD EFFECTIVELY SHOVE
THE FRONT FURTHER S TO NEAR I-70.

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A BAND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FOG SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA N
OF THE FRONT. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER. AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL IN HIGH TEMPS SUN. AND IF THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK N INTO THE FCST AREA...WE MAY NOT BE NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH.

SUN: LOW PRES WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS ALONG AND E-W ORIENTED FRONT.
A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...S AND E OF THE LOW. N OF
THE FRONT IT ALL DEPENDS ON IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AND THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SVR TSTMS ALSO HINGES ON IF THE FRONT LIFTS N AT ALL.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS.

MON-THU: DRY MUCH OF THE TIME WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY ROUGHLY 4 PM-9 PM. TUE NIGHT THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROF COULD KEEP TSTM POTENTIAL GOING THRU THE NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE AXIS OF STRONGER
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN MORE TOWARD
KEAR OVERNIGHT BEFORE NUDGING EAST INTO KGRI LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 051949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHAT IS HELPING TO
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-CITIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN. WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...I AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. THE JET WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS OR SO...SO WIND
MAY INCREASE A TOUCH IN OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS NEAR
50...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF THE MARK FOR WHAT IS AVERAGE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...MORE IN THE 15 TO 18 C RANGE RATHER THAN THE 12 TO 15 C WE
ARE SEEING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PUTTING US WITHIN THE REALM OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY WITHOUT MUCH PROBLEM. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY...PROBABLY IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE. AGAIN...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SO DRY
THAT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AND MOST INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER N AMERICA. A VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CONUS AND N AMERICA AND THE ADJOINING OCEANS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES IN A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN.

A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NE USA FRI-SUN...SENDING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS TROF WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL WOBBLE THRU THE WRN USA
SAT-SUN...BEING STRETCHED AND PULLED AS VARIOUS VORT MAXIMA ORBIT
ITS PERIPHERY. THE 1ST VORT MAX OF INTEREST WILL LIFT INTO CO SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY 12Z/SUN THIS VORT MAX WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY LOW AND LIFT N ALONG THE NEB/WY BORDER DURING THE DAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE LAGGING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW WILL ADVANCE
INTO CO/NM TO THE S OF THE LOW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE PLAINS MON.
A POTENT TROF WILL DIVE OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN-
MON...WITH A LOW PROBABLY CLOSING OFF OVER MT/WY/DAKOTAS TUE. THE
LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT-OFF AND
LINGER OVER THE NRN PLAINS WED-THU AS PART OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE
CNTRL USA.

SURFACE: THE CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER SAT...WHILE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER CO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ROUGH CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
EC/NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN IS THAT IT WILL SINK INTO KS SUN...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS I-70. BUT DOES THE FRONT LIFT BACK INTO NEB IN THE
AFTERNOON? A BIG AND IMPORTANT QUESTION. THE SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS WRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY 00Z/TUE...WITH A DRY TROF (DRYLINE/LEE
TROF COMBO) ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. CANADIAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE SHOULD SINK THRU MON NIGHT WITH THIS FRONT STALLING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY DAYBREAK WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WED-THU...BUT THAT`S NO GUARANTEE OF DRY WX WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT NEARBY.

THE SPECIFICS ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND TUE PENDING WHAT HAPPENS ALOFT WITH THE
CUT-OFF.


SOME DAILY DETAILS...

FOR BREVITY SAKE THE BOTTOM LINE IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN RE-
ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF SVR TSTMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY AND PROVIDE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT. MUCH CAN CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW...

SAT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EML ADVECTED OVER THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. HOWEVER...SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE IN FROM THE W SAT EVE/NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SVR WX...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. THE COLD OUTFLOW FROM THESE TSTMS COULD EFFECTIVELY SHOVE
THE FRONT FURTHER S TO NEAR I-70.

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A BAND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FOG SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA N
OF THE FRONT. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER. AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL IN HIGH TEMPS SUN. AND IF THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK N INTO THE FCST AREA...WE MAY NOT BE NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH.

SUN: LOW PRES WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS ALONG AND E-W ORIENTED FRONT.
A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...S AND E OF THE LOW. N OF
THE FRONT IT ALL DEPENDS ON IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AND THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SVR TSTMS ALSO HINGES ON IF THE FRONT LIFTS N AT ALL.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS.

MON-THU: DRY MUCH OF THE TIME WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY ROUGHLY 4 PM-9 PM. TUE NIGHT THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROF COULD KEEP TSTM POTENTIAL GOING THRU THE NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE AXIS OF STRONGER
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN MORE TOWARD
KEAR OVERNIGHT BEFORE NUDGING EAST INTO KGRI LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 051756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BY MOST FOLK`S OPINION...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AND "GUARANTEED" DRY NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY UNDER WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND WITH LIGHTER BREEZES. FOR
THOSE INTERESTED IN THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
COMMENCING THIS WEEKEND AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW...FEEL FREE TO SKIP AHEAD...AS FRANKLY THE FOLLOWING SHORT
TERM DETAILS AREN`T OF GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM (ALONG WITH SOME
COMMENTS REGARDING THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS):
AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS APPEAR HEADED
A TOUCH COOLER THAN ADVERTISED...AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN THESE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS PROBABLY GOING TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO 40 THAN 45...WITH A
FEW FAVORED COOLER SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN "SAFE" FROM
POTENTIAL FROST FORMATION BY 4+ DEGREES...BUT THIS COULD BE A
CLOSE CALL IN SOME LOW-LYING AREAS. NO MATTER WHAT...ANY POSSIBLE
FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE
IN THE FORECAST. LIKE LAST NIGHT...NARY A CLOUD IN SIGHT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW WISPS OF
HIGH CIRRUS ARE EVIDENT TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE BIG
PICTURE SCENE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CWA IS SOLIDLY UNDER THE CALMING
INFLUENCE OF THE SLIGHTLY-DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-
AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO INTO
CANADA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...DEEP TROUGHS AND CLOSED LOWS FLANK THE BIG RIDGE ON
BOTH SIDES...ONE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION AND THE OTHER
CHURNING OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS PLANTED ALMOST SQUARELY OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE TO ESSENTIALLY CALM WINDS...AND TEAMING WITH
THE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES TO FOSTER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
COOLING.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH TODAY-TONIGHT:

TODAY:
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE "NICEST" DAYS OF THE SPRING SO FAR...WITH
CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS AND (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA) PRETTY DARN LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH SKY COVER
MIGHT NOT BE LITERALLY ZERO-PERCENT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...IT WILL
STILL BE VERY SUNNY WITH AT MOST ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF THIN
HIGH CIRRUS VISIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE BIG RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE MORNING WILL
FEATURE VERY LIGHT BREEZES OF MAINLY 8 MPH OR LESS FROM GENERALLY
A WESTERLY/SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BARELY
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A SLIGHTLY
STEADIER SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN...BUT EVEN THEN WE ARE
TALKING NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND 10-15 MPH IN THE WESTERN HALF. ONLY THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES (SUCH AS DAWSON) STAND MUCH CHANCE OF SEEING
GUSTS REACH 20 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...DESPITE THE LACK OF ROBUST
VERTICAL MIXING OWING TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME...THE FACT THAT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY CLEARLY SUPPORTS A MODEST WARM-UP AT THE
SURFACE AS WELL. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS HIGH
TEMPS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA 77-79 WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
80 WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER. FOR THOSE WITH
DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) CONCERNS (SUCH AS PRESCRIBED
BURNING PERSONNEL)...IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED
ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH PUTS MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSER TO 25 PERCENT THAN 30 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
CONTINUED "GUARANTEED" DRY UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
BIT MORE HIGH CIRRUS BY DAYBREAK...SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE AXIS ITSELF WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN CWA BY NIGHT`S END. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING...THEN
POSSIBLY PICKING UP VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...BUT STILL WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY UNDER 12 MPH.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GRADUALLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE AR AREA BY NIGHT`S END.
TEMP-WISE...DESPITE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...THE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP READINGS 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. AGAIN MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE ENTIRE CWA
INTO THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CLIMBING AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY TO PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY...EXPECT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SPARK FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT SLOWLY SINKS TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE
LINES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECT TO BEGIN TO ERODE...WITH A WEAKENING CAP...MU CAPE VALUES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SOME MODEST SHEAR. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.

LATE IN THE NIGHT SATURDAY...AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL STARTS TO
WANE...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND BETTER
SHEAR...TO RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT WAS DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY WIND AND HAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH THESE FAIRLY
ROBUST SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE EVENTUALLY NEEDED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BEYOND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SENDING MULTIPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE IT
WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS...WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S...WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE AXIS OF STRONGER
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN MORE TOWARD
KEAR OVERNIGHT BEFORE NUDGING EAST INTO KGRI LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 051756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BY MOST FOLK`S OPINION...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AND "GUARANTEED" DRY NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY UNDER WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND WITH LIGHTER BREEZES. FOR
THOSE INTERESTED IN THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
COMMENCING THIS WEEKEND AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW...FEEL FREE TO SKIP AHEAD...AS FRANKLY THE FOLLOWING SHORT
TERM DETAILS AREN`T OF GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM (ALONG WITH SOME
COMMENTS REGARDING THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS):
AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS APPEAR HEADED
A TOUCH COOLER THAN ADVERTISED...AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN THESE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS PROBABLY GOING TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO 40 THAN 45...WITH A
FEW FAVORED COOLER SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN "SAFE" FROM
POTENTIAL FROST FORMATION BY 4+ DEGREES...BUT THIS COULD BE A
CLOSE CALL IN SOME LOW-LYING AREAS. NO MATTER WHAT...ANY POSSIBLE
FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE
IN THE FORECAST. LIKE LAST NIGHT...NARY A CLOUD IN SIGHT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW WISPS OF
HIGH CIRRUS ARE EVIDENT TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE BIG
PICTURE SCENE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CWA IS SOLIDLY UNDER THE CALMING
INFLUENCE OF THE SLIGHTLY-DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-
AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO INTO
CANADA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...DEEP TROUGHS AND CLOSED LOWS FLANK THE BIG RIDGE ON
BOTH SIDES...ONE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION AND THE OTHER
CHURNING OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS PLANTED ALMOST SQUARELY OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE TO ESSENTIALLY CALM WINDS...AND TEAMING WITH
THE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES TO FOSTER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
COOLING.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH TODAY-TONIGHT:

TODAY:
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE "NICEST" DAYS OF THE SPRING SO FAR...WITH
CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS AND (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA) PRETTY DARN LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH SKY COVER
MIGHT NOT BE LITERALLY ZERO-PERCENT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...IT WILL
STILL BE VERY SUNNY WITH AT MOST ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF THIN
HIGH CIRRUS VISIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE BIG RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE MORNING WILL
FEATURE VERY LIGHT BREEZES OF MAINLY 8 MPH OR LESS FROM GENERALLY
A WESTERLY/SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BARELY
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A SLIGHTLY
STEADIER SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN...BUT EVEN THEN WE ARE
TALKING NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND 10-15 MPH IN THE WESTERN HALF. ONLY THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES (SUCH AS DAWSON) STAND MUCH CHANCE OF SEEING
GUSTS REACH 20 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...DESPITE THE LACK OF ROBUST
VERTICAL MIXING OWING TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME...THE FACT THAT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY CLEARLY SUPPORTS A MODEST WARM-UP AT THE
SURFACE AS WELL. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS HIGH
TEMPS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA 77-79 WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
80 WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER. FOR THOSE WITH
DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) CONCERNS (SUCH AS PRESCRIBED
BURNING PERSONNEL)...IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED
ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH PUTS MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSER TO 25 PERCENT THAN 30 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
CONTINUED "GUARANTEED" DRY UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
BIT MORE HIGH CIRRUS BY DAYBREAK...SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE AXIS ITSELF WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN CWA BY NIGHT`S END. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING...THEN
POSSIBLY PICKING UP VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...BUT STILL WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY UNDER 12 MPH.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GRADUALLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE AR AREA BY NIGHT`S END.
TEMP-WISE...DESPITE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...THE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP READINGS 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. AGAIN MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE ENTIRE CWA
INTO THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CLIMBING AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY TO PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY...EXPECT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SPARK FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT SLOWLY SINKS TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE
LINES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECT TO BEGIN TO ERODE...WITH A WEAKENING CAP...MU CAPE VALUES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SOME MODEST SHEAR. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.

LATE IN THE NIGHT SATURDAY...AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL STARTS TO
WANE...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND BETTER
SHEAR...TO RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT WAS DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY WIND AND HAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH THESE FAIRLY
ROBUST SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE EVENTUALLY NEEDED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BEYOND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SENDING MULTIPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE IT
WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS...WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S...WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE AXIS OF STRONGER
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN MORE TOWARD
KEAR OVERNIGHT BEFORE NUDGING EAST INTO KGRI LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 051051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BY MOST FOLK`S OPINION...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AND "GUARANTEED" DRY NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY UNDER WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND WITH LIGHTER BREEZES. FOR
THOSE INTERESTED IN THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
COMMENCING THIS WEEKEND AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW...FEEL FREE TO SKIP AHEAD...AS FRANKLY THE FOLLOWING SHORT
TERM DETAILS AREN`T OF GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM (ALONG WITH SOME
COMMENTS REGARDING THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS):
AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS APPEAR HEADED
A TOUCH COOLER THAN ADVERTISED...AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN THESE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS PROBABLY GOING TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO 40 THAN 45...WITH A
FEW FAVORED COOLER SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN "SAFE" FROM
POTENTIAL FROST FORMATION BY 4+ DEGREES...BUT THIS COULD BE A
CLOSE CALL IN SOME LOW-LYING AREAS. NO MATTER WHAT...ANY POSSIBLE
FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE
IN THE FORECAST. LIKE LAST NIGHT...NARY A CLOUD IN SIGHT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW WISPS OF
HIGH CIRRUS ARE EVIDENT TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE BIG
PICTURE SCENE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CWA IS SOLIDLY UNDER THE CALMING
INFLUENCE OF THE SLIGHTLY-DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-
AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO INTO
CANADA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...DEEP TROUGHS AND CLOSED LOWS FLANK THE BIG RIDGE ON
BOTH SIDES...ONE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION AND THE OTHER
CHURNING OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS PLANTED ALMOST SQUARELY OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE TO ESSENTIALLY CALM WINDS...AND TEAMING WITH
THE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES TO FOSTER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
COOLING.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH TODAY-TONIGHT:

TODAY:
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE "NICEST" DAYS OF THE SPRING SO FAR...WITH
CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS AND (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA) PRETTY DARN LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH SKY COVER
MIGHT NOT BE LITERALLY ZERO-PERCENT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...IT WILL
STILL BE VERY SUNNY WITH AT MOST ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF THIN
HIGH CIRRUS VISIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE BIG RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE MORNING WILL
FEATURE VERY LIGHT BREEZES OF MAINLY 8 MPH OR LESS FROM GENERALLY
A WESTERLY/SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BARELY
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A SLIGHTLY
STEADIER SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN...BUT EVEN THEN WE ARE
TALKING NO MORE THAN 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND 10-15 MPH IN THE WESTERN HALF. ONLY THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES (SUCH AS DAWSON) STAND MUCH CHANCE OF SEEING
GUSTS REACH 20 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...DESPITE THE LACK OF ROBUST
VERTICAL MIXING OWING TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME...THE FACT THAT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY CLEARLY SUPPORTS A MODEST WARM-UP AT THE
SURFACE AS WELL. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS HIGH
TEMPS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA 77-79 WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
80 WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER. FOR THOSE WITH
DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) CONCERNS (SUCH AS PRESCRIBED
BURNING PERSONNEL)...IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED
ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH PUTS MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSER TO 25 PERCENT THAN 30 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
CONTINUED "GUARANTEED" DRY UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
BIT MORE HIGH CIRRUS BY DAYBREAK...SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE AXIS ITSELF WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN CWA BY NIGHT`S END. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING...THEN
POSSIBLY PICKING UP VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...BUT STILL WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY UNDER 12 MPH.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GRADUALLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE AR AREA BY NIGHT`S END.
TEMP-WISE...DESPITE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...THE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP READINGS 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. AGAIN MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE ENTIRE CWA
INTO THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CLIMBING AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY TO PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY...EXPECT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SPARK FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT SLOWLY SINKS TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE
LINES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECT TO BEGIN TO ERODE...WITH A WEAKENING CAP...MU CAPE VALUES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SOME MODEST SHEAR. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.

LATE IN THE NIGHT SATURDAY...AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL STARTS TO
WANE...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND BETTER
SHEAR...TO RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT WAS DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY WIND AND HAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH THESE FAIRLY
ROBUST SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE EVENTUALLY NEEDED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BEYOND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SENDING MULTIPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE IT
WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS...WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S...WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THIS IS ONE OF THE "QUIETEST" TAF PERIODS OF THIS FORECASTER`S
CAREER...EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH VFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY (NEARLY 100 PERCENT CLEAR SKIES). IN ADDITION...SURFACE
WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR/UNDER 10KT THROUGHOUT...TRANSITIONING
FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY. LATE TONIGHT...MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD DEVELOP BUT ANY LLWS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MEET MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY WEST OF KGRI/KEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 050928
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

BY MOST FOLK`S OPINION...WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY
QUIET/PLEASANT AND "GUARANTEED" DRY NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY UNDER WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND WITH LIGHTER BREEZES. FOR
THOSE INTERESTED IN THE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
COMMENCING THIS WEEKEND AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW...FEEL FREE TO SKIP AHEAD...AS FRANKLY THE FOLLOWING SHORT
TERM DETAILS AREN`T OF GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM (ALONG WITH SOME
COMMENTS REGARDING THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS):
AS SUSPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS APPEAR HEADED
A TOUCH COOLER THAN ADVERTISED...AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN THESE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS PROBABLY GOING TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO 40 THAN 45...WITH A
FEW FAVORED COOLER SPOTS INTO THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN "SAFE" FROM
POTENTIAL FROST FORMATION BY 4+ DEGREES...BUT THIS COULD BE A
CLOSE CALL IN SOME LOW-LYING AREAS. NO MATTER WHAT...ANY POSSIBLE
FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE
IN THE FORECAST. LIKE LAST NIGHT...NARY A CLOUD IN SIGHT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW WISPS OF
HIGH CIRRUS ARE EVIDENT TO THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE BIG
PICTURE SCENE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CWA IS SOLIDLY UNDER THE CALMING
INFLUENCE OF THE SLIGHTLY-DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-
AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO INTO
CANADA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...DEEP TROUGHS AND CLOSED LOWS FLANK THE BIG RIDGE ON
BOTH SIDES...ONE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION AND THE OTHER
CHURNING OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS PLANTED ALMOST SQUARELY OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE TO ESSENTIALLY CALM WINDS...AND TEAMING WITH
THE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES TO FOSTER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
COOLING.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH TODAY-TONIGHT:

TODAY:
LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE "NICEST" DAYS OF THE SPRING SO FAR...WITH
CONTINUED WARMING TEMPS AND (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA) PRETTY DARN LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH SKY COVER
MIGHT NOT BE LITERALLY ZERO-PERCENT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...IT WILL
STILL BE VERY SUNNY WITH AT MOST ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF THIN
HIGH CIRRUS VISIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE BIG RIDGE WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THAN THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE MORNING WILL
FEATURE VERY LIGHT BREEZES OF MAINLY 8 MPH OR LESS FROM GENERALLY
A WESTERLY/SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES BARELY
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY MID-DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...A SLIGHTLY
STEADIER SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN...BUT EVEN THEN WE ARE
TALKING MORE THAN 5-10 MPH SUSTAINED WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND 10-15 MPH IN THE WESTERN HALF. ONLY THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES (SUCH AS DAWSON) STAND MUCH CHANCE OF SEEING
GUSTS REACH 20 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE...DESPITE THE LACK OF ROBUST
VERTICAL MIXING OWING TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME...THE FACT THAT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3C
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY CLEARLY SUPPORTS A MODEST WARM-UP AT THE
SURFACE AS WELL. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS HIGH
TEMPS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA 77-79 WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
80 WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER. FOR THOSE WITH
DEWPOINT/RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) CONCERNS (SUCH AS PRESCRIBED
BURNING PERSONNEL)...IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED
ROUGHLY 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH PUTS MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES CLOSER TO 25 PERCENT THAN 30 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
CONTINUED "GUARANTEED" DRY UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
BIT MORE HIGH CIRRUS BY DAYBREAK...SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE AXIS ITSELF WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN CWA BY NIGHT`S END. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 5-10 MPH
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING...THEN
POSSIBLY PICKING UP VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT...BUT STILL WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY UNDER 12 MPH.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GRADUALLY DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER THE AR AREA BY NIGHT`S END.
TEMP-WISE...DESPITE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...THE LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP READINGS 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. AGAIN MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING THE ENTIRE CWA
INTO THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CLIMBING AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY
INCREASING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY TO PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION LOCALLY...EXPECT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE A SPARK FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT SLOWLY SINKS TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE
LINES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECT TO BEGIN TO ERODE...WITH A WEAKENING CAP...MU CAPE VALUES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SOME MODEST SHEAR. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.

LATE IN THE NIGHT SATURDAY...AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL STARTS TO
WANE...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO HELP DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND BETTER
SHEAR...TO RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT WAS DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO MAINLY WIND AND HAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH THESE FAIRLY
ROBUST SHEAR VALUES AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE EVENTUALLY NEEDED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BEYOND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SENDING MULTIPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE IT
WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...EXPECT AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
MILD SIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS...WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S...WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LIKELY ONE OF THE TOP-10 "QUIETEST" TAFS OF THIS FORECASTER`S
CAREER...EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING (NEARLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITY...WITH SEEMINGLY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
HAZE/FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...STARTING OUT VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA...THEN ONLY MODESTLY PICKING UP TO AROUND 10KT FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 050536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. ALOFT
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER
LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH RIDGING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL
REMAIN QUIET WEATHERWISE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/KS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY. EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS ROUGHLY 3C AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHLD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

STARTING OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BIG PICTURE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDDLE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE MT/NDAK
BORDER TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BE BOUNDED BY A COUPLE
OF CLOSED LOWS...ONE AROUND THE TENN VALLEY AND THE OTHER JUST
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL NE/KS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS
WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP...BUT THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ENDS UP
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT ACROSS OUR CWA AND OTHERS HAVE IT
FURTHER NORTH. BY SATURDAY UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA AND MAY
END UP WITH A LEADING EDGE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE CWA...BEGINNING
IN THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE SAT EVENING/NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN COMING INTO PLAY.

MODELS NOT COMING TOGETHER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL EC FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. LATEST GFS
HAS THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NOON SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. SO WHILE WE MAY GET
ADDITIONAL RAIN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.  THE 00Z
RUN OF THE EC HAD THE SURFACE AND 500 MB FEATURES ABOUT 350 MILES TO
THE NORTH OF THE GFS TRACKS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
PANS OUT AS THE EC DOES GIVE AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC WAS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z SO INSTEAD OF CONVERGING...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT SINCE THE LATEST RUN.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS MEANDERS THE 500 MB LOW THROUGH THE
AREA...ONLY MOVING IT TO NEAR NEBRASKA CITY BY NOON TUESDAY. THUS
THE DAMP WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND PART OF TUESDAY. THE
EC IS SIMILAR IN MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT WITH DIFFERENT
POSITIONING. PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WET TO START THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LIKELY ONE OF THE TOP-10 "QUIETEST" TAFS OF THIS FORECASTER`S
CAREER...EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING (NEARLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITY...WITH SEEMINGLY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
HAZE/FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...STARTING OUT VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA...THEN ONLY MODESTLY PICKING UP TO AROUND 10KT FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 050536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. ALOFT
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER
LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH RIDGING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL
REMAIN QUIET WEATHERWISE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/KS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY. EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS ROUGHLY 3C AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHLD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

STARTING OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BIG PICTURE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDDLE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE MT/NDAK
BORDER TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BE BOUNDED BY A COUPLE
OF CLOSED LOWS...ONE AROUND THE TENN VALLEY AND THE OTHER JUST
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL NE/KS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS
WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP...BUT THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ENDS UP
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT ACROSS OUR CWA AND OTHERS HAVE IT
FURTHER NORTH. BY SATURDAY UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA AND MAY
END UP WITH A LEADING EDGE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE CWA...BEGINNING
IN THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE SAT EVENING/NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN COMING INTO PLAY.

MODELS NOT COMING TOGETHER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL EC FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. LATEST GFS
HAS THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NOON SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. SO WHILE WE MAY GET
ADDITIONAL RAIN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.  THE 00Z
RUN OF THE EC HAD THE SURFACE AND 500 MB FEATURES ABOUT 350 MILES TO
THE NORTH OF THE GFS TRACKS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
PANS OUT AS THE EC DOES GIVE AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC WAS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z SO INSTEAD OF CONVERGING...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT SINCE THE LATEST RUN.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS MEANDERS THE 500 MB LOW THROUGH THE
AREA...ONLY MOVING IT TO NEAR NEBRASKA CITY BY NOON TUESDAY. THUS
THE DAMP WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND PART OF TUESDAY. THE
EC IS SIMILAR IN MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT WITH DIFFERENT
POSITIONING. PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WET TO START THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LIKELY ONE OF THE TOP-10 "QUIETEST" TAFS OF THIS FORECASTER`S
CAREER...EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING (NEARLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
VISIBILITY...WITH SEEMINGLY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
HAZE/FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...STARTING OUT VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA...THEN ONLY MODESTLY PICKING UP TO AROUND 10KT FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 042316
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. ALOFT
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER
LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH RIDGING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL
REMAIN QUIET WEATHERWISE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/KS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY. EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS ROUGHLY 3C AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHLD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

STARTING OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BIG PICTURE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDDLE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE MT/NDAK
BORDER TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BE BOUNDED BY A COUPLE
OF CLOSED LOWS...ONE AROUND THE TENN VALLEY AND THE OTHER JUST
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL NE/KS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS
WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP...BUT THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ENDS UP
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT ACROSS OUR CWA AND OTHERS HAVE IT
FURTHER NORTH. BY SATURDAY UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA AND MAY
END UP WITH A LEADING EDGE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE CWA...BEGINNING
IN THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE SAT EVENING/NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN COMING INTO PLAY.

MODELS NOT COMING TOGETHER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL EC FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. LATEST GFS
HAS THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NOON SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. SO WHILE WE MAY GET
ADDITIONAL RAIN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.  THE 00Z
RUN OF THE EC HAD THE SURFACE AND 500 MB FEATURES ABOUT 350 MILES TO
THE NORTH OF THE GFS TRACKS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
PANS OUT AS THE EC DOES GIVE AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC WAS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z SO INSTEAD OF CONVERGING...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT SINCE THE LATEST RUN.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS MEANDERS THE 500 MB LOW THROUGH THE
AREA...ONLY MOVING IT TO NEAR NEBRASKA CITY BY NOON TUESDAY. THUS
THE DAMP WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND PART OF TUESDAY. THE
EC IS SIMILAR IN MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT WITH DIFFERENT
POSITIONING. PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WET TO START THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT





000
FXUS63 KGID 042000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. ALOFT
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WAS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH UPPER
LOWS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH RIDGING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL
REMAIN QUIET WEATHERWISE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MILD/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS EASTERN
NEB/KS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH WINDS
TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY. EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS WARMS ROUGHLY 3C AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHLD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES LATER IN THE PERIOD AS PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

STARTING OUT THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BIG PICTURE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
MIDDLE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH THE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE MT/NDAK
BORDER TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BE BOUNDED BY A COUPLE
OF CLOSED LOWS...ONE AROUND THE TENN VALLEY AND THE OTHER JUST
MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST TOWARDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THESE FEATURES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL NE/KS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THUS
WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP...BUT THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ENDS UP
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT ACROSS OUR CWA AND OTHERS HAVE IT
FURTHER NORTH. BY SATURDAY UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE CWA AND MAY
END UP WITH A LEADING EDGE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE CWA...BEGINNING
IN THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE SAT EVENING/NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL JET ONCE AGAIN COMING INTO PLAY.

MODELS NOT COMING TOGETHER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL EC FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. LATEST GFS
HAS THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NOON SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. SO WHILE WE MAY GET
ADDITIONAL RAIN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WOULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.  THE 00Z
RUN OF THE EC HAD THE SURFACE AND 500 MB FEATURES ABOUT 350 MILES TO
THE NORTH OF THE GFS TRACKS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
PANS OUT AS THE EC DOES GIVE AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC WAS
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z SO INSTEAD OF CONVERGING...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT SINCE THE LATEST RUN.

AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS MEANDERS THE 500 MB LOW THROUGH THE
AREA...ONLY MOVING IT TO NEAR NEBRASKA CITY BY NOON TUESDAY. THUS
THE DAMP WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND PART OF TUESDAY. THE
EC IS SIMILAR IN MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT WITH DIFFERENT
POSITIONING. PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WET TO START THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTN...NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 041650
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE 1-SENTENCE VERSION: OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY...VERY PLEASANT...DRY AND SUNNY SPRING WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MOST SPOTS.

YOU CAN PROBABLY TELL BY HOW "EARLY" THIS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED
BY THIS VERBOSE FORECASTER THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN
INCREDIBLY QUIET SHORT TERM HERE. EVEN UPON DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
DATA...THERE JUST DON`T APPEAR TO BE ANY "CATCHES" LURKING IN THE
WEEDS OF THIS SEEMINGLY "EASY" FORECAST. PUT SIMPLY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF "GUARANTEED DRY" WEATHER UNDER
WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE (LIKELY HARDLY A CLOUD AT ALL) AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO NO RISK OF FROST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AT ANY RATE...MOVING ON TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 3AM/08Z:
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CLOUD OUT THERE...AS INFRARED SATELLITE
CONFIRMS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF
MILES IN MOST DIRECTIONS FROM THE CWA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STEADILY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND POINTS EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED EASTERN IA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THIS CONVECTION WELL TO OUR
EAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. MEANWHILE...OUR LOCAL AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...THE AXIS OF WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WAY UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A LIGHT BREEZE THAN LAST NIGHT
THANKS TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED OVER
MICHIGAN AND A ROUGHLY 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER CO. IN
GENERAL...MOST PLACES ARE REPORTING A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF
5-10 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES MILDER THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

EARLY THIS MORNING:
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 5-10 MPH BREEZES POSSIBLY BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...IT`S SIMPLY A CONTINUED
QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT. DESPITE THESE CLEAR SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHEN A FEW SPOTS UNEXPECTEDLY GOT COLD ENOUGH
TO FLIRT WITH FROST FORMATION....WITH LOWS THIS MORNING MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT 40-45.

DAYTIME HOURS:
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-5 DEGREES
WARMER IN MOST OF THE CWA BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY
BREEZE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...DRY/STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS EDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST (THIS IS A CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH THIS
RIDGE FLANKED BY BOTH AN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH).
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA...AS A ROUGHLY 1016
MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOMES CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY DAY`S END. UNDER
ALMOST 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT...AND DESPITE A SLOWLY-WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 AND POSSIBLY
25 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH. TEMP-WISE...ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
CWA POSSIBLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FAR WEST. EVEN SO...NUDGED
UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...AIMING
FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR-70 EAST TO NEAR-75 WEST/SOUTHWEST. IF
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MANAGE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS FLIRT WITH 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAIN...CONCERNS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ARE
REALISTICALLY OVER WITH FOR THE SPRING SEASON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ANOTHER VERY QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE AT ALL IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE VERSUS THE ONGOING/CURRENT NIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER/MORE
VARIABLE BREEZES...WITH SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AVERAGING
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...ALLOWING
INITIALLY NORTHERLY EARLY EVENING BREEZES TO TRANSITION TO A
VARIED MIX OF A LIGHT EASTERLY...SOUTHERLY AND EVEN WESTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ADMITTEDLY...AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT THIS FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED. AS A HEDGE THIS
DIRECTION...NUDGED DOWN PREVIOUS LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY IN MOST
AREAS...BUT STILL AIMING MOST OF THE CWA NO COLDER THAN THE 40-44
RANGE. FORTUNATELY...EVEN IF THINGS DO TREND COLDER THAN
EXPECTED...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 4-8 DEGREES OF "WIGGLE ROOM" TO WORK
WITH BEFORE A "SNEAKY" FROST EVENT WOULD EVEN BECOME A
POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CLEAR. ALL OF THAT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM. THESE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY BUT HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT
LEAST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR US TO
SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO NARROW...BUT SHOULD STILL BE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. VORT
MAXES CAN BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING IT PROVIDES WILL SLIDE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION COULD SET OFF SOME ELEVATED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OUR POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE A HAIR OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR SEEING RAIN. HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...TO AROUND 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SUNDAY...THIS REALLY SEEMS LIKE THE DAY TO WATCH OUT FOR. THAT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHERE ALL THE FRONTS SET UP...BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. WAY TO EARLY TO SAY MORE THAN THAT THIS FAR OUT. ESSENTIALLY
THIS IS JUST A DAY THAT YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE SEE AND CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL CALL FOR MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN/OPEN UP WITH
TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. MONDAY MAY STILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IF THE SLOWER SYSTEM MOTION MATERIALIZES. THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER AND MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTN...NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 041650
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE 1-SENTENCE VERSION: OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY...VERY PLEASANT...DRY AND SUNNY SPRING WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MOST SPOTS.

YOU CAN PROBABLY TELL BY HOW "EARLY" THIS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED
BY THIS VERBOSE FORECASTER THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN
INCREDIBLY QUIET SHORT TERM HERE. EVEN UPON DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
DATA...THERE JUST DON`T APPEAR TO BE ANY "CATCHES" LURKING IN THE
WEEDS OF THIS SEEMINGLY "EASY" FORECAST. PUT SIMPLY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF "GUARANTEED DRY" WEATHER UNDER
WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE (LIKELY HARDLY A CLOUD AT ALL) AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO NO RISK OF FROST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AT ANY RATE...MOVING ON TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 3AM/08Z:
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CLOUD OUT THERE...AS INFRARED SATELLITE
CONFIRMS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF
MILES IN MOST DIRECTIONS FROM THE CWA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STEADILY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND POINTS EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED EASTERN IA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THIS CONVECTION WELL TO OUR
EAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. MEANWHILE...OUR LOCAL AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...THE AXIS OF WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WAY UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A LIGHT BREEZE THAN LAST NIGHT
THANKS TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED OVER
MICHIGAN AND A ROUGHLY 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER CO. IN
GENERAL...MOST PLACES ARE REPORTING A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF
5-10 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES MILDER THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

EARLY THIS MORNING:
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 5-10 MPH BREEZES POSSIBLY BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...IT`S SIMPLY A CONTINUED
QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT. DESPITE THESE CLEAR SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHEN A FEW SPOTS UNEXPECTEDLY GOT COLD ENOUGH
TO FLIRT WITH FROST FORMATION....WITH LOWS THIS MORNING MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT 40-45.

DAYTIME HOURS:
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-5 DEGREES
WARMER IN MOST OF THE CWA BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY
BREEZE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...DRY/STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS EDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST (THIS IS A CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH THIS
RIDGE FLANKED BY BOTH AN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH).
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA...AS A ROUGHLY 1016
MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOMES CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY DAY`S END. UNDER
ALMOST 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT...AND DESPITE A SLOWLY-WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 AND POSSIBLY
25 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH. TEMP-WISE...ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
CWA POSSIBLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FAR WEST. EVEN SO...NUDGED
UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...AIMING
FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR-70 EAST TO NEAR-75 WEST/SOUTHWEST. IF
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MANAGE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS FLIRT WITH 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAIN...CONCERNS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ARE
REALISTICALLY OVER WITH FOR THE SPRING SEASON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ANOTHER VERY QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE AT ALL IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE VERSUS THE ONGOING/CURRENT NIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER/MORE
VARIABLE BREEZES...WITH SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AVERAGING
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...ALLOWING
INITIALLY NORTHERLY EARLY EVENING BREEZES TO TRANSITION TO A
VARIED MIX OF A LIGHT EASTERLY...SOUTHERLY AND EVEN WESTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ADMITTEDLY...AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT THIS FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED. AS A HEDGE THIS
DIRECTION...NUDGED DOWN PREVIOUS LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY IN MOST
AREAS...BUT STILL AIMING MOST OF THE CWA NO COLDER THAN THE 40-44
RANGE. FORTUNATELY...EVEN IF THINGS DO TREND COLDER THAN
EXPECTED...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 4-8 DEGREES OF "WIGGLE ROOM" TO WORK
WITH BEFORE A "SNEAKY" FROST EVENT WOULD EVEN BECOME A
POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CLEAR. ALL OF THAT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM. THESE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY BUT HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT
LEAST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR US TO
SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO NARROW...BUT SHOULD STILL BE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. VORT
MAXES CAN BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING IT PROVIDES WILL SLIDE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION COULD SET OFF SOME ELEVATED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OUR POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE A HAIR OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR SEEING RAIN. HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...TO AROUND 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SUNDAY...THIS REALLY SEEMS LIKE THE DAY TO WATCH OUT FOR. THAT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHERE ALL THE FRONTS SET UP...BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. WAY TO EARLY TO SAY MORE THAN THAT THIS FAR OUT. ESSENTIALLY
THIS IS JUST A DAY THAT YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE SEE AND CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL CALL FOR MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN/OPEN UP WITH
TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. MONDAY MAY STILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IF THE SLOWER SYSTEM MOTION MATERIALIZES. THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER AND MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN DEEPER
MIXING THIS AFTN...NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 041110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE 1-SENTENCE VERSION: OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY...VERY PLEASANT...DRY AND SUNNY SPRING WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MOST SPOTS.

YOU CAN PROBABLY TELL BY HOW "EARLY" THIS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED
BY THIS VERBOSE FORECASTER THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN
INCREDIBLY QUIET SHORT TERM HERE. EVEN UPON DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
DATA...THERE JUST DON`T APPEAR TO BE ANY "CATCHES" LURKING IN THE
WEEDS OF THIS SEEMINGLY "EASY" FORECAST. PUT SIMPLY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF "GUARANTEED DRY" WEATHER UNDER
WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE (LIKELY HARDLY A CLOUD AT ALL) AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO NO RISK OF FROST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AT ANY RATE...MOVING ON TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 3AM/08Z:
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CLOUD OUT THERE...AS INFRARED SATELLITE
CONFIRMS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF
MILES IN MOST DIRECTIONS FROM THE CWA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STEADILY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND POINTS EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED EASTERN IA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THIS CONVECTION WELL TO OUR
EAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. MEANWHILE...OUR LOCAL AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...THE AXIS OF WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WAY UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A LIGHT BREEZE THAN LAST NIGHT
THANKS TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED OVER
MICHIGAN AND A ROUGHLY 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER CO. IN
GENERAL...MOST PLACES ARE REPORTING A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF
5-10 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES MILDER THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

EARLY THIS MORNING:
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 5-10 MPH BREEZES POSSIBLY BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...IT`S SIMPLY A CONTINUED
QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT. DESPITE THESE CLEAR SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHEN A FEW SPOTS UNEXPECTEDLY GOT COLD ENOUGH
TO FLIRT WITH FROST FORMATION....WITH LOWS THIS MORNING MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT 40-45.

DAYTIME HOURS:
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-5 DEGREES
WARMER IN MOST OF THE CWA BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY
BREEZE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...DRY/STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS EDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST (THIS IS A CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH THIS
RIDGE FLANKED BY BOTH AN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH).
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA...AS A ROUGHLY 1016
MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOMES CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY DAY`S END. UNDER
ALMOST 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT...AND DESPITE A SLOWLY-WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 AND POSSIBLY
25 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH. TEMP-WISE...ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
CWA POSSIBLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FAR WEST. EVEN SO...NUDGED
UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...AIMING
FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR-70 EAST TO NEAR-75 WEST/SOUTHWEST. IF
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MANAGE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS FLIRT WITH 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAIN...CONCERNS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ARE
REALISTICALLY OVER WITH FOR THE SPRING SEASON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ANOTHER VERY QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE AT ALL IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE VERSUS THE ONGOING/CURRENT NIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER/MORE
VARIABLE BREEZES...WITH SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AVERAGING
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...ALLOWING
INITIALLY NORTHERLY EARLY EVENING BREEZES TO TRANSITION TO A
VARIED MIX OF A LIGHT EASTERLY...SOUTHERLY AND EVEN WESTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ADMITTEDLY...AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT THIS FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED. AS A HEDGE THIS
DIRECTION...NUDGED DOWN PREVIOUS LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY IN MOST
AREAS...BUT STILL AIMING MOST OF THE CWA NO COLDER THAN THE 40-44
RANGE. FORTUNATELY...EVEN IF THINGS DO TREND COLDER THAN
EXPECTED...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 4-8 DEGREES OF "WIGGLE ROOM" TO WORK
WITH BEFORE A "SNEAKY" FROST EVENT WOULD EVEN BECOME A
POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CLEAR. ALL OF THAT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM. THESE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY BUT HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT
LEAST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR US TO
SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO NARROW...BUT SHOULD STILL BE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. VORT
MAXES CAN BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING IT PROVIDES WILL SLIDE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION COULD SET OFF SOME ELEVATED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OUR POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE A HAIR OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR SEEING RAIN. HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...TO AROUND 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SUNDAY...THIS REALLY SEEMS LIKE THE DAY TO WATCH OUT FOR. THAT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHERE ALL THE FRONTS SET UP...BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. WAY TO EARLY TO SAY MORE THAN THAT THIS FAR OUT. ESSENTIALLY
THIS IS JUST A DAY THAT YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE SEE AND CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL CALL FOR MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN/OPEN UP WITH
TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. MONDAY MAY STILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IF THE SLOWER SYSTEM MOTION MATERIALIZES. THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER AND MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IN VFR CEILING (ESSENTIALLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND IS MODERATELY HIGH IN VFR
VISIBILITY...AS EVEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY (HAZE) SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY
TONIGHT. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
UNDER 12KT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
ROUGHLY 4-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 20KT. VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES RETURN TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 040850
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE 1-SENTENCE VERSION: OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY...VERY PLEASANT...DRY AND SUNNY SPRING WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MOST SPOTS.

YOU CAN PROBABLY TELL BY HOW "EARLY" THIS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED
BY THIS VERBOSE FORECASTER THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN
INCREDIBLY QUIET SHORT TERM HERE. EVEN UPON DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
DATA...THERE JUST DON`T APPEAR TO BE ANY "CATCHES" LURKING IN THE
WEEDS OF THIS SEEMINGLY "EASY" FORECAST. PUT SIMPLY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF "GUARANTEED DRY" WEATHER UNDER
WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE (LIKELY HARDLY A CLOUD AT ALL) AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO NO RISK OF FROST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AT ANY RATE...MOVING ON TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 3AM/08Z:
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CLOUD OUT THERE...AS INFRARED SATELLITE
CONFIRMS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF
MILES IN MOST DIRECTIONS FROM THE CWA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STEADILY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND POINTS EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED EASTERN IA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THIS CONVECTION WELL TO OUR
EAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. MEANWHILE...OUR LOCAL AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...THE AXIS OF WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WAY UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A LIGHT BREEZE THAN LAST NIGHT
THANKS TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED OVER
MICHIGAN AND A ROUGHLY 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER CO. IN
GENERAL...MOST PLACES ARE REPORTING A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF
5-10 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES MILDER THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

EARLY THIS MORNING:
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 5-10 MPH BREEZES POSSIBLY BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...IT`S SIMPLY A CONTINUED
QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT. DESPITE THESE CLEAR SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHEN A FEW SPOTS UNEXPECTEDLY GOT COLD ENOUGH
TO FLIRT WITH FROST FORMATION....WITH LOWS THIS MORNING MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT 40-45.

DAYTIME HOURS:
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-5 DEGREES
WARMER IN MOST OF THE CWA BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY
BREEZE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...DRY/STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS EDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST (THIS IS A CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH THIS
RIDGE FLANKED BY BOTH AN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH).
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA...AS A ROUGHLY 1016
MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOMES CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY DAY`S END. UNDER
ALMOST 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT...AND DESPITE A SLOWLY-WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 AND POSSIBLY
25 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH. TEMP-WISE...ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
CWA POSSIBLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FAR WEST. EVEN SO...NUDGED
UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...AIMING
FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR-70 EAST TO NEAR-75 WEST/SOUTHWEST. IF
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MANAGE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS FLIRT WITH 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAIN CONCERNS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ARE
REALISTICALLY OVER WITH FOR THE SPRING SEASON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ANOTHER VERY QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE AT ALL IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE VERSUS THE ONGOING/CURRENT NIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER/MORE
VARIABLE BREEZES...WITH SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AVERAGING
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...ALLOWING
INITIALLY NORTHERLY EARLY EVENING BREEZES TO TRANSITION TO A
VARIED MIX OF A LIGHT EASTERLY...SOUTHERLY AND EVEN WESTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ADMITTEDLY...AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT THIS FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED. AS A HEDGE THIS
DIRECTION...NUDGED DOWN PREVIOUS LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY IN MOST
AREAS...BUT STILL AIMING MOST OF THE CWA NO COLDER THAN THE 40-44
RANGE. FORTUNATELY...EVEN IF THINGS DO TREND COLDER THAN
EXPECTED...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 4-8 DEGREES OF "WIGGLE ROOM" TO WORK
WITH BEFORE A "SNEAKY" FROST EVENT WOULD EVEN BECOME A
POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CLEAR. ALL OF THAT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM. THESE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY BUT HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT
LEAST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR US TO
SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO NARROW...BUT SHOULD STILL BE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. VORT
MAXES CAN BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING IT PROVIDES WILL SLIDE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION COULD SET OFF SOME ELEVATED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OUR POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE A HAIR OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR SEEING RAIN. HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...TO AROUND 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SUNDAY...THIS REALLY SEEMS LIKE THE DAY TO WATCH OUT FOR. THAT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHERE ALL THE FRONTS SET UP...BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. WAY TO EARLY TO SAY MORE THAN THAT THIS FAR OUT. ESSENTIALLY
THIS IS JUST A DAY THAT YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE SEE AND CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL CALL FOR MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN/OPEN UP WITH
TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. MONDAY MAY STILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IF THE SLOWER SYSTEM MOTION MATERIALIZES. THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER AND MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IN VFR CEILING (ESSENTIALLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND IS MODERATELY HIGH IN VFR
VISIBILITY...AS EVEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY (HAZE) SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY
THIS MORNING. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
UNDER 12KT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
ROUGHLY 4-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 20KT. VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 040850
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE 1-SENTENCE VERSION: OTHER THAN BEING A BIT BREEZIER THAN
YESTERDAY...VERY PLEASANT...DRY AND SUNNY SPRING WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MOST SPOTS.

YOU CAN PROBABLY TELL BY HOW "EARLY" THIS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED
BY THIS VERBOSE FORECASTER THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN
INCREDIBLY QUIET SHORT TERM HERE. EVEN UPON DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
DATA...THERE JUST DON`T APPEAR TO BE ANY "CATCHES" LURKING IN THE
WEEDS OF THIS SEEMINGLY "EASY" FORECAST. PUT SIMPLY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF "GUARANTEED DRY" WEATHER UNDER
WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE (LIKELY HARDLY A CLOUD AT ALL) AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE TO NO RISK OF FROST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

AT ANY RATE...MOVING ON TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AS OF 3AM/08Z:
GOOD LUCK FINDING A CLOUD OUT THERE...AS INFRARED SATELLITE
CONFIRMS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF
MILES IN MOST DIRECTIONS FROM THE CWA. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STEADILY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND POINTS EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAINLY AFFECTED EASTERN IA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT THIS CONVECTION WELL TO OUR
EAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
STREAK DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. MEANWHILE...OUR LOCAL AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY-
DOMINATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...THE AXIS OF WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WAY UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A LIGHT BREEZE THAN LAST NIGHT
THANKS TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED OVER
MICHIGAN AND A ROUGHLY 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER CO. IN
GENERAL...MOST PLACES ARE REPORTING A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF
5-10 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES MILDER THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

EARLY THIS MORNING:
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 5-10 MPH BREEZES POSSIBLY BECOMING A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
BRUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...IT`S SIMPLY A CONTINUED
QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT. DESPITE THESE CLEAR SKIES...AM NOT EXPECTING A
REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHEN A FEW SPOTS UNEXPECTEDLY GOT COLD ENOUGH
TO FLIRT WITH FROST FORMATION....WITH LOWS THIS MORNING MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT 40-45.

DAYTIME HOURS:
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-5 DEGREES
WARMER IN MOST OF THE CWA BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY
BREEZE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...DRY/STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE AXIS EDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST (THIS IS A CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH THIS
RIDGE FLANKED BY BOTH AN EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH).
AT THE SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL/WASH OUT OVER THE AREA...AS A ROUGHLY 1016
MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
BECOMES CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA BY DAY`S END. UNDER
ALMOST 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY
EFFICIENT...AND DESPITE A SLOWLY-WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 AND POSSIBLY
25 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH...SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH. TEMP-WISE...ABOUT THE ONLY
EFFECT OF THE WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE TO KEEP THE FAR EASTERN
CWA POSSIBLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FAR WEST. EVEN SO...NUDGED
UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS...AIMING
FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR-70 EAST TO NEAR-75 WEST/SOUTHWEST. IF
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MANAGE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS FLIRT WITH 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAIN CONCERNS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ARE
REALISTICALLY OVER WITH FOR THE SPRING SEASON.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
ANOTHER VERY QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE AT ALL IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE ROCKIES RIDGE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE VERSUS THE ONGOING/CURRENT NIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER/MORE
VARIABLE BREEZES...WITH SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AVERAGING
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. THE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...ALLOWING
INITIALLY NORTHERLY EARLY EVENING BREEZES TO TRANSITION TO A
VARIED MIX OF A LIGHT EASTERLY...SOUTHERLY AND EVEN WESTERLY
COMPONENT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ADMITTEDLY...AM A BIT CONCERNED
THAT THIS FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN EXPECTED. AS A HEDGE THIS
DIRECTION...NUDGED DOWN PREVIOUS LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY IN MOST
AREAS...BUT STILL AIMING MOST OF THE CWA NO COLDER THAN THE 40-44
RANGE. FORTUNATELY...EVEN IF THINGS DO TREND COLDER THAN
EXPECTED...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 4-8 DEGREES OF "WIGGLE ROOM" TO WORK
WITH BEFORE A "SNEAKY" FROST EVENT WOULD EVEN BECOME A
POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
SKIES WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CLEAR. ALL OF THAT SUNSHINE WILL HELP
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THEN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM. THESE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE AREA
THAT WOULD BE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IT COULD GO EITHER
WAY BUT HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT
LEAST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR WEST FOR US TO
SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO NARROW...BUT SHOULD STILL BE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. VORT
MAXES CAN BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING IT PROVIDES WILL SLIDE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION COULD SET OFF SOME ELEVATED LATE
NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OUR POPS OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE A HAIR OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR SEEING RAIN. HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...TO AROUND 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SUNDAY...THIS REALLY SEEMS LIKE THE DAY TO WATCH OUT FOR. THAT UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO
SEE WHERE ALL THE FRONTS SET UP...BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. WAY TO EARLY TO SAY MORE THAN THAT THIS FAR OUT. ESSENTIALLY
THIS IS JUST A DAY THAT YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE SEE AND CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL CALL FOR MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN/OPEN UP WITH
TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. MONDAY MAY STILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IF THE SLOWER SYSTEM MOTION MATERIALIZES. THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER AND MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IN VFR CEILING (ESSENTIALLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND IS MODERATELY HIGH IN VFR
VISIBILITY...AS EVEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY (HAZE) SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY
THIS MORNING. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
UNDER 12KT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
ROUGHLY 4-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 20KT. VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 040608
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
108 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IN VFR CEILING (ESSENTIALLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND IS MODERATELY HIGH IN VFR
VISIBILITY...AS EVEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY (HAZE) SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY
THIS MORNING. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
UNDER 12KT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
ROUGHLY 4-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 20KT. VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 040608
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
108 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IN VFR CEILING (ESSENTIALLY 100
PERCENT CLEAR SKIES) AND IS MODERATELY HIGH IN VFR
VISIBILITY...AS EVEN BRIEF MVFR VSBY (HAZE) SEEMS PRETTY UNLIKELY
THIS MORNING. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
UNDER 12KT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
ROUGHLY 4-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING/THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 20KT. VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 032320
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
620 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT





000
FXUS63 KGID 032320
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
620 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT





000
FXUS63 KGID 032017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities