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000
FXUS63 KGID 301140
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TODAY: VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DONE.
LOW- MID LVL CIGS WILL BE CLEARING EAR/GRI 12Z-15Z. MARGINAL LLWS
IS IN PROGRESS AND IT TOO WILL END BY 15Z AS THE CORE OF STRONG
LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE E. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT`S NOT A LOCK. S WINDS ARE CURRENTY GUSTING
TO 23 KTS. THIS WILL END SHORTLY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO
SSW 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL G19 KTS IS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR AND ESSENTIALLY SKC UNTIL CIRRUS CIGS INVADE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE S UNDER 10 KTS.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 301140
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TODAY: VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DONE.
LOW- MID LVL CIGS WILL BE CLEARING EAR/GRI 12Z-15Z. MARGINAL LLWS
IS IN PROGRESS AND IT TOO WILL END BY 15Z AS THE CORE OF STRONG
LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE E. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT`S NOT A LOCK. S WINDS ARE CURRENTY GUSTING
TO 23 KTS. THIS WILL END SHORTLY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO
SSW 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL G19 KTS IS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR AND ESSENTIALLY SKC UNTIL CIRRUS CIGS INVADE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE S UNDER 10 KTS.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300901
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...THE END OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS ON THE
HORIZON AND THE TRANSITION TO A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE HRRR HAS BEEN STELLAR WITH ITS
DEPICTION OF THE DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE COMMA CLOUD. FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS IT
APPEARED THERE WAS TOO MUCH CAPPING ALOFT AND POOR MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES /LACK OF INSTABILITY/.

THRU SUNRISE: A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WILL CONT TO POP UP HERE AND
THERE. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TSTM CLUSTER IN THE DDC
AREA. THE 06Z NAM/HRRR AND THE 00Z HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE ALL HAVE IT
AND TAKE IT NE INTO THE FCST AREA...MAINLY E OF HWY 281. SO WHILE
POPS WERE INITIALLY TRIMMED THRU MIDDAY BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THEY WERE RAMPED BACK UP BASED ON GOOD GUIDANCE HANDLING
OF THIS.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300901
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...THE END OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS ON THE
HORIZON AND THE TRANSITION TO A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE HRRR HAS BEEN STELLAR WITH ITS
DEPICTION OF THE DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE COMMA CLOUD. FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS IT
APPEARED THERE WAS TOO MUCH CAPPING ALOFT AND POOR MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES /LACK OF INSTABILITY/.

THRU SUNRISE: A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WILL CONT TO POP UP HERE AND
THERE. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TSTM CLUSTER IN THE DDC
AREA. THE 06Z NAM/HRRR AND THE 00Z HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE ALL HAVE IT
AND TAKE IT NE INTO THE FCST AREA...MAINLY E OF HWY 281. SO WHILE
POPS WERE INITIALLY TRIMMED THRU MIDDAY BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THEY WERE RAMPED BACK UP BASED ON GOOD GUIDANCE HANDLING
OF THIS.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 300553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 300508
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 300508
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 300025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 300025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 292025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 292025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 291746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 291746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 291041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS..MOVE EASTWARD AND
REACH THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND JUST MENTIONED RAIN SHOWERS IN TAFS. ALSO WITH STRONGER WINDS
FORECAST ABOVE THE SFC INCLUDED LLWS FOR KEAR WITH KGRI BORDERLINE
FOR MENTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 290857
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290857
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 290520
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 290520
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 282323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY GUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 282323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY GUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 282017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
WEST...WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THE
TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 282017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
WEST...WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THE
TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 281712
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS RATHER
LIMITED...MAINLY AFFECTING WEBSTER...NUCKOLLS AND JEWELL
COUNTIES...SOME RESPECTABLE PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE
OBSERVED...INCLUDING JUST OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED IN
GUIDE ROCK. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN AS OF THIS HOUR...AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AROUND NOON. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
THINS A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MORNING FORECAST. OTHER THAN
REMOVING REMAINING MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LATEST UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALTHOUGH ONLY AFFECTING A VERY LOCALIZED PORTION OF THE CWA (THUS
FAR) MAINLY IN WEBSTER/JEWELL COUNTIES...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT FINALLY SPRING UP
BETWEEN 6-7 AM WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS...FORECAST MODELS
HAD BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY AT THE "LAST MINUTE" DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS...ONLY TO HAVE IT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE BOTTOM LINE:
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED BACK INTO THE MORNING
FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE
MONITORING TO SEE HOW LONG THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY ACTUALLY LASTS
INTO THE DAY. AGAIN...CERTAINLY THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
PRETTY LIMITED (MEANING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY)...AND NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG LET ALONE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD CATCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER
RAIN THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
WEST...WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THE
TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 281712
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS RATHER
LIMITED...MAINLY AFFECTING WEBSTER...NUCKOLLS AND JEWELL
COUNTIES...SOME RESPECTABLE PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE
OBSERVED...INCLUDING JUST OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED IN
GUIDE ROCK. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN AS OF THIS HOUR...AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AROUND NOON. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
THINS A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MORNING FORECAST. OTHER THAN
REMOVING REMAINING MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LATEST UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALTHOUGH ONLY AFFECTING A VERY LOCALIZED PORTION OF THE CWA (THUS
FAR) MAINLY IN WEBSTER/JEWELL COUNTIES...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT FINALLY SPRING UP
BETWEEN 6-7 AM WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS...FORECAST MODELS
HAD BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY AT THE "LAST MINUTE" DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS...ONLY TO HAVE IT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE BOTTOM LINE:
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED BACK INTO THE MORNING
FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE
MONITORING TO SEE HOW LONG THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY ACTUALLY LASTS
INTO THE DAY. AGAIN...CERTAINLY THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
PRETTY LIMITED (MEANING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY)...AND NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG LET ALONE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD CATCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER
RAIN THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
WEST...WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THE
TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 281550
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1050 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A RATHER SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS RATHER
LIMITED...MAINLY AFFECTING WEBSTER...NUCKOLLS AND JEWELL
COUNTIES...SOME RESPECTABLE PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE
OBSERVED...INCLUDING JUST OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED IN
GUIDE ROCK. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DIMINISHED...AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN AS OF THIS HOUR...AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AROUND NOON. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER
THINS A BIT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MORNING FORECAST. OTHER THAN
REMOVING REMAINING MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LATEST UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALTHOUGH ONLY AFFECTING A VERY LOCALIZED PORTION OF THE CWA (THUS
FAR) MAINLY IN WEBSTER/JEWELL COUNTIES...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT FINALLY SPRING UP
BETWEEN 6-7 AM WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS...FORECAST MODELS
HAD BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY AT THE "LAST MINUTE" DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS...ONLY TO HAVE IT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE BOTTOM LINE:
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED BACK INTO THE MORNING
FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE
MONITORING TO SEE HOW LONG THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY ACTUALLY LASTS
INTO THE DAY. AGAIN...CERTAINLY THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
PRETTY LIMITED (MEANING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY)...AND NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG LET ALONE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD CATCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER
RAIN THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ASIDE FROM AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 281215
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
715 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALTHOUGH ONLY AFFECTING A VERY LOCALIZED PORTION OF THE CWA (THUS
FAR) MAINLY IN WEBSTER/JEWELL COUNTIES...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT FINALLY SPRING UP
BETWEEN 6-7 AM WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS...FORECAST MODELS
HAD BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY AT THE "LAST MINUTE" DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS...ONLY TO HAVE IT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE BOTTOM LINE:
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED BACK INTO THE MORNING
FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE
MONITORING TO SEE HOW LONG THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY ACTUALLY LASTS
INTO THE DAY. AGAIN...CERTAINLY THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
PRETTY LIMITED (MEANING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY)...AND NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG LET ALONE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD CATCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER
RAIN THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ASIDE FROM AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 281215
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
715 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALTHOUGH ONLY AFFECTING A VERY LOCALIZED PORTION OF THE CWA (THUS
FAR) MAINLY IN WEBSTER/JEWELL COUNTIES...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT FINALLY SPRING UP
BETWEEN 6-7 AM WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS...FORECAST MODELS
HAD BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY AT THE "LAST MINUTE" DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS...ONLY TO HAVE IT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE BOTTOM LINE:
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED BACK INTO THE MORNING
FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE
MONITORING TO SEE HOW LONG THIS SPOTTY ACTIVITY ACTUALLY LASTS
INTO THE DAY. AGAIN...CERTAINLY THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
PRETTY LIMITED (MEANING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY)...AND NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG LET ALONE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW SPOTS COULD CATCH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVIER
RAIN THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ASIDE FROM AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 281046
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ASIDE FROM AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 281046
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NC KANSAS THIS MORNING WHERE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING. MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ASIDE FROM AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE
INITIALLY THIS MORNING...DRY/QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTN WITH GUSTS NEAR
20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 280830
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HAVE WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AS SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PCPN CHANCES TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
POSSIBLE.  CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 280830
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOK FOR ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED A POTENT TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN NV. ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE WHILE THE NUISANCE MEANDERING UPPER LOW WAS
WEAKENING AND EDGING EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

THE FORECAST HAD SOME SMALL POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND IN PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A LONE HIGH BASED
CELL IN NANCE COUNTY WHICH HAS WEAKENED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATELLITE/METAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THIS POINT EXPECT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS VS PCPN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A SPRINKLE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 8K FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE NICE WITH ALMOST A
REPEAT IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE DEEP MIXING BUT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
LAYER ARE 5KTS LOWER THAN SATURDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS
BREEZY DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING VARIABLE WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AROUND...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S.

DRY/QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE
UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ALOFT: THE WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER CANADA AT 00Z/MON BUT WILL
REDEVELOP S BACK INTO THE CONUS AS A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE
WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE NE
PACIFIC MON. THIS WILL FORCE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER NV
TO OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE NE...CROSSING THE PANHANDLE TUE MORNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE PACIFIC TROF WILL ADVANCE THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND MOVE THRU HERE THU...FOLLOWED BY DRY NW FLOW FRI-
SAT.

SURFACE: RETURN FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MON WITH A LEE-SIDE LOW
DEEPENING OVER CO. THIS LOW ACCELERATE N AND CONT TO STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA TUE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE REGION WED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
FOLLOW FRI. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE S OF THE REGION SAT WITH A WARM
FRONT AND WAA DEVELOPING.

HAZARDS: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS MON NIGHT THRU WED. CHANCE FOR
SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL OR NIL...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES S AND
E OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION.

WINDY W OF HWY 281 MON FROM THE SSE. WINDY FRI FOR THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA FROM THE NW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: DRY AND VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 10F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. MOST GUIDANCE WANTED TO EASE OFF THE RECENT
WARMTH...BUT SEE NO REASON FOR GOING ANY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN.

BREEZY W OF HWY 281 WHERE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NIGHT: ONE OR TWO ARCS OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY THRU FROM SW-NE.

MULTICELL TSTMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF MON AFTERNOON/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER DARK...BUT EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ROUGHLY 12AM-
9AM...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

INSTABILITY WILL BE POOR NO MORE THAN 500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE.
BASICALLY ENOUGH FOR THUNDER IN THE FCST.

TUE: WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST BAND OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER? WILL DEPART BEFORE NOON...AND MOST LIKELY BY MID-MORNING.
DRY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THE DRY SLOT ROTATES IN.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...MID-LVL TEMPS COOL. HEATING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN BETTER MLCAPE TUE AFTERNOON UP TO
1500 J/KG. WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL
ARC SUX-OMA-TOP-ICT...THERE IS A CHANCE A COUPLE OF TSTMS COULD
REDEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
35 KTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AND COULD TURN OUT
SURPRISINGLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE /IE LOW-MID 80S VS MID-UPR
70S/.

WED: NOT AS WARM. HIGHS PROBABLY DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA...MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL MISS TO THE S
AND E. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT TSTM AFFECTING THE FAR SE FRINGE OF
THE FCST AREA.

CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD NE UP THE FRONT AND WHILE THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN E AND S OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE...BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO
BROAD AND HIGH WITH POPS WED-THU. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE FCST LOOKS WETTER THAN I AM COMFORTABLE WITH.

THU: COOLER YET AND DAYTIME TEMPS PROBABLY TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL
/60S/. POSSIBLY A SHWR OR TWO ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT?

THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM HANG SOME COMMAHEAD RAIN BACK OVER
NEB/KS THU WHILE THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO
THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA ALOFT. THIS CREATES FCST
UNCERTAINTY.

THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SUGGEST THE GEM/GFS COULD BE ONTO
SOMETHING.

FRI: WINDY AND VERY COOL IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS TIME FRAME...FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS.

SAT: WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WHILE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK WARM AS THE
THERMAL TROF EXITS TO THE E...EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUT A
CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HAVE WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AS SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PCPN CHANCES TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
POSSIBLE.  CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 280519
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1219 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA STILL STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF
MAKING IT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DRY...A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED/EXPANDED
IN THE FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
(INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES) FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE NOTE THIS PRECIP CHANCE...ALBEIT SMALL...REPRESENTS A
CHANGE FROM THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO FOR
THIS WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THIS PRECIP CHANCE...BOTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE LAST NIGHT/TODAY IN MANY
WAYS...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES/WIND SPEEDS. IN OTHER WORDS VERY
STATUS QUO.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330 PM...ANOTHER
SEASONABLY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH REALLY ABOUT THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TODAY BEING A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...SIGNIFYING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ON
THE MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A BROAD HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH GENERALLY
ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWEST SD INTO COLORADO. THIS GRADIENT...ALONG
WITH MIXING UP INTO THE 850-800 MILLIBAR LAYER PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...IS DRIVING SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY
15-22 MPH ACROSS THE CWA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 22-30 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR VERY MUCH ON TRACK TO END UP WITHIN
GENERALLY 1 DEGREE OF THE EARLY-MORNING FORECAST...WITH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 81-85 RANGE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE AGAIN MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT AS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THIS TIME AROUND SEEM TO BE HOLDING MORE FIRMLY UP INTO
THE 50S THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHT JUMP IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN. STARTING IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A DEEP/EXPANSIVE TROUGH
IS EVER-SO-SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...WITH ITS CLOSED 500MB LOW
CHURNING OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AREA. JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...A
NARROW BUT EVIDENT RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOCAL AREA...A SLOWLY-MEANDERING MID
LEVEL LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW IS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST IA AT THIS TIME...WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM NEAR/ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WHILE JUST BELOW THIS...PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM AROUND 700MB DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (AT LEAST MIDNIGHT)...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST CWA-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RESULTING IN A PLEASANT EVENING. AS TYPICAL...BREEZES WILL
EASE DOWN TOWARD SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED BREEZES THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT ONLY AVERAGING 7-13 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THEN FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (ESPECIALLY POST-08Z/2AM)...THATS
WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS KICKS IN FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF AN ORD-KEARNEY-MANKATO LINE. TO BE
SURE...THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN SCENARIO...AS THERE IS
VARIANCE BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF SUCH AS FROM THE
ECMWF (DRY) AND NAM12 (WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA)...AND ALSO FROM HIGHER-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW...THE FORMER OF WHICH IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION THAN THE LATTER. AT
ANY RATE...ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. AS FOR FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
POSSIBLE CONVECTION...IT LIKELY HAS LESS TO DO WITH THE NEARBY MID
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND MORE TO DO WITH MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND ON
THE 305/310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ONLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...OR ACTUAL SHOWERS/STORMS. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE KEEPING
POPS LOW AT ONLY 20 PERCENT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME CANNOT IGNORE
THE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING...AND DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF A FORMAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA PORTRAYED ON THE
LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHWEST IA...IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AS IT
STARTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN A TOUCH. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...MADE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AGAIN EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR VALUES TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
57-60.

TURNING TO THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS...AND STARTING WITH THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE HEART OF THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE EXPANSIVE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGHS STILL REMAINS SAFELY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND FINALLY GET ON THE MOVE AS IT STARTS
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...ESSENTIALLY CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...WHILE GRADUALLY ENDING THESE SLIGHT POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST...WITH THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCES LIKELY FAVORING THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. FOLLOWING ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM
SOLUTION...CONFIDENCE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON
HOURS VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL
SATURATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND/OR SLIDES OFF EAST OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL ESSENTIALLY BE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ACTUALLY BE JUST A TOUCH WEAKER. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE JUST A FEW MPH WEAKER THAN THOSE
OF TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 12-18 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...ASSUMING
THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOWS ITS HAND ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGHS WON/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THOSE OF TODAY. IN FACT...ESSENTIALLY COPIED-PASTED TODAY/S
HIGHS IN FOR SUNDAY...MEANING GENERALLY 81-85 WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CHANGES ARE COMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH A MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...EXPECT NICE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THAT
SAID...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY BREEZY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSES WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES.
WHILE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TOO ROBUST ACROSS OUR LOCAL
AREA...GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. LATEST SPC PROBS DO INDICATE THIS 5
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING EXTENDING INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND GIVEN UPWARDS OF 1000 JOULES OF CAPE ALONG
WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY EVENING.

WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT NORTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT COULD FIRE UP SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES ON TUESDAY...IF THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA HOLDS. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES...
CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...AND ADDED THIS TO AFTERNOON HWO AS WELL.

AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW TO RAPIDLY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT MOISTURE TO POOL
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
DECENT CAPE VALUES AND MODERATE SHEAR ONCE AGAIN WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...DID MAINTAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS INSTABILITY
WANES...WITH YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT BITTERLY
COLD...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE MID TEENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS SHOULD TAKE
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW CLIMO TO END THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FAIRLY GOOD LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HAVE WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD AS SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PCPN CHANCES TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
POSSIBLE.  CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA STILL STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF
MAKING IT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DRY...A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED/EXPANDED
IN THE FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
(INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES) FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE NOTE THIS PRECIP CHANCE...ALBEIT SMALL...REPRESENTS A
CHANGE FROM THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO FOR
THIS WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THIS PRECIP CHANCE...BOTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE LAST NIGHT/TODAY IN MANY
WAYS...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES/WIND SPEEDS. IN OTHER WORDS VERY
STATUS QUO.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330 PM...ANOTHER
SEASONABLY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH REALLY ABOUT THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TODAY BEING A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...SIGNIFYING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ON
THE MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A BROAD HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH GENERALLY
ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWEST SD INTO COLORADO. THIS GRADIENT...ALONG
WITH MIXING UP INTO THE 850-800 MILLIBAR LAYER PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...IS DRIVING SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY
15-22 MPH ACROSS THE CWA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 22-30 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR VERY MUCH ON TRACK TO END UP WITHIN
GENERALLY 1 DEGREE OF THE EARLY-MORNING FORECAST...WITH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 81-85 RANGE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE AGAIN MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT AS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THIS TIME AROUND SEEM TO BE HOLDING MORE FIRMLY UP INTO
THE 50S THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHT JUMP IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN. STARTING IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A DEEP/EXPANSIVE TROUGH
IS EVER-SO-SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...WITH ITS CLOSED 500MB LOW
CHURNING OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AREA. JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...A
NARROW BUT EVIDENT RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOCAL AREA...A SLOWLY-MEANDERING MID
LEVEL LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW IS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST IA AT THIS TIME...WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM NEAR/ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WHILE JUST BELOW THIS...PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM AROUND 700MB DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (AT LEAST MIDNIGHT)...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST CWA-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RESULTING IN A PLEASANT EVENING. AS TYPICAL...BREEZES WILL
EASE DOWN TOWARD SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED BREEZES THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT ONLY AVERAGING 7-13 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THEN FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (ESPECIALLY POST-08Z/2AM)...THATS
WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS KICKS IN FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF AN ORD-KEARNEY-MANKATO LINE. TO BE
SURE...THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN SCENARIO...AS THERE IS
VARIANCE BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF SUCH AS FROM THE
ECMWF (DRY) AND NAM12 (WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA)...AND ALSO FROM HIGHER-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW...THE FORMER OF WHICH IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION THAN THE LATTER. AT
ANY RATE...ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. AS FOR FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
POSSIBLE CONVECTION...IT LIKELY HAS LESS TO DO WITH THE NEARBY MID
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND MORE TO DO WITH MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND ON
THE 305/310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ONLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...OR ACTUAL SHOWERS/STORMS. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE KEEPING
POPS LOW AT ONLY 20 PERCENT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME CANNOT IGNORE
THE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING...AND DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF A FORMAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA PORTRAYED ON THE
LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHWEST IA...IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AS IT
STARTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN A TOUCH. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...MADE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AGAIN EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR VALUES TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
57-60.

TURNING TO THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS...AND STARTING WITH THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE HEART OF THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE EXPANSIVE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGHS STILL REMAINS SAFELY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND FINALLY GET ON THE MOVE AS IT STARTS
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...ESSENTIALLY CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...WHILE GRADUALLY ENDING THESE SLIGHT POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST...WITH THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCES LIKELY FAVORING THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. FOLLOWING ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM
SOLUTION...CONFIDENCE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON
HOURS VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL
SATURATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND/OR SLIDES OFF EAST OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL ESSENTIALLY BE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ACTUALLY BE JUST A TOUCH WEAKER. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE JUST A FEW MPH WEAKER THAN THOSE
OF TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 12-18 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...ASSUMING
THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOWS ITS HAND ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGHS WON/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THOSE OF TODAY. IN FACT...ESSENTIALLY COPIED-PASTED TODAY/S
HIGHS IN FOR SUNDAY...MEANING GENERALLY 81-85 WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CHANGES ARE COMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH A MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...EXPECT NICE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THAT
SAID...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY BREEZY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSES WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES.
WHILE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TOO ROBUST ACROSS OUR LOCAL
AREA...GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. LATEST SPC PROBS DO INDICATE THIS 5
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING EXTENDING INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND GIVEN UPWARDS OF 1000 JOULES OF CAPE ALONG
WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY EVENING.

WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT NORTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT COULD FIRE UP SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES ON TUESDAY...IF THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA HOLDS. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES...
CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...AND ADDED THIS TO AFTERNOON HWO AS WELL.

AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW TO RAPIDLY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT MOISTURE TO POOL
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
DECENT CAPE VALUES AND MODERATE SHEAR ONCE AGAIN WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...DID MAINTAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS INSTABILITY
WANES...WITH YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT BITTERLY
COLD...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE MID TEENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS SHOULD TAKE
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW CLIMO TO END THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FAIRLY GOOD LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT
TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE...IF ANY DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW FOCUSED MORE TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA STILL STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF
MAKING IT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DRY...A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED/EXPANDED
IN THE FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
(INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES) FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE NOTE THIS PRECIP CHANCE...ALBEIT SMALL...REPRESENTS A
CHANGE FROM THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO FOR
THIS WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THIS PRECIP CHANCE...BOTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE LAST NIGHT/TODAY IN MANY
WAYS...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES/WIND SPEEDS. IN OTHER WORDS VERY
STATUS QUO.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330 PM...ANOTHER
SEASONABLY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH REALLY ABOUT THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TODAY BEING A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...SIGNIFYING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ON
THE MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A BROAD HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH GENERALLY
ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWEST SD INTO COLORADO. THIS GRADIENT...ALONG
WITH MIXING UP INTO THE 850-800 MILLIBAR LAYER PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...IS DRIVING SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY
15-22 MPH ACROSS THE CWA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 22-30 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR VERY MUCH ON TRACK TO END UP WITHIN
GENERALLY 1 DEGREE OF THE EARLY-MORNING FORECAST...WITH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 81-85 RANGE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE AGAIN MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT AS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THIS TIME AROUND SEEM TO BE HOLDING MORE FIRMLY UP INTO
THE 50S THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHT JUMP IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN. STARTING IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A DEEP/EXPANSIVE TROUGH
IS EVER-SO-SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...WITH ITS CLOSED 500MB LOW
CHURNING OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AREA. JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...A
NARROW BUT EVIDENT RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOCAL AREA...A SLOWLY-MEANDERING MID
LEVEL LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW IS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST IA AT THIS TIME...WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM NEAR/ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WHILE JUST BELOW THIS...PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM AROUND 700MB DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (AT LEAST MIDNIGHT)...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST CWA-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RESULTING IN A PLEASANT EVENING. AS TYPICAL...BREEZES WILL
EASE DOWN TOWARD SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED BREEZES THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT ONLY AVERAGING 7-13 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THEN FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (ESPECIALLY POST-08Z/2AM)...THATS
WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS KICKS IN FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF AN ORD-KEARNEY-MANKATO LINE. TO BE
SURE...THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN SCENARIO...AS THERE IS
VARIANCE BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF SUCH AS FROM THE
ECMWF (DRY) AND NAM12 (WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA)...AND ALSO FROM HIGHER-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW...THE FORMER OF WHICH IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION THAN THE LATTER. AT
ANY RATE...ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. AS FOR FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
POSSIBLE CONVECTION...IT LIKELY HAS LESS TO DO WITH THE NEARBY MID
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND MORE TO DO WITH MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND ON
THE 305/310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ONLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...OR ACTUAL SHOWERS/STORMS. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE KEEPING
POPS LOW AT ONLY 20 PERCENT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME CANNOT IGNORE
THE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING...AND DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF A FORMAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA PORTRAYED ON THE
LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHWEST IA...IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AS IT
STARTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN A TOUCH. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...MADE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AGAIN EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR VALUES TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
57-60.

TURNING TO THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS...AND STARTING WITH THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE HEART OF THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE EXPANSIVE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGHS STILL REMAINS SAFELY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND FINALLY GET ON THE MOVE AS IT STARTS
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...ESSENTIALLY CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...WHILE GRADUALLY ENDING THESE SLIGHT POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST...WITH THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCES LIKELY FAVORING THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. FOLLOWING ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM
SOLUTION...CONFIDENCE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON
HOURS VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL
SATURATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND/OR SLIDES OFF EAST OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL ESSENTIALLY BE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ACTUALLY BE JUST A TOUCH WEAKER. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE JUST A FEW MPH WEAKER THAN THOSE
OF TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 12-18 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...ASSUMING
THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOWS ITS HAND ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGHS WON/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THOSE OF TODAY. IN FACT...ESSENTIALLY COPIED-PASTED TODAY/S
HIGHS IN FOR SUNDAY...MEANING GENERALLY 81-85 WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CHANGES ARE COMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH A MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...EXPECT NICE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THAT
SAID...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY BREEZY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSES WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES.
WHILE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TOO ROBUST ACROSS OUR LOCAL
AREA...GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. LATEST SPC PROBS DO INDICATE THIS 5
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING EXTENDING INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND GIVEN UPWARDS OF 1000 JOULES OF CAPE ALONG
WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY EVENING.

WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT NORTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT COULD FIRE UP SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES ON TUESDAY...IF THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA HOLDS. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES...
CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...AND ADDED THIS TO AFTERNOON HWO AS WELL.

AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW TO RAPIDLY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT MOISTURE TO POOL
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
DECENT CAPE VALUES AND MODERATE SHEAR ONCE AGAIN WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...DID MAINTAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS INSTABILITY
WANES...WITH YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT BITTERLY
COLD...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE MID TEENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS SHOULD TAKE
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW CLIMO TO END THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FAIRLY GOOD LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT
TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE...IF ANY DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW FOCUSED MORE TO THE EAST ALONG
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 272100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA STILL STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF
MAKING IT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DRY...A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED/EXPANDED
IN THE FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
(INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES) FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE NOTE THIS PRECIP CHANCE...ALBEIT SMALL...REPRESENTS A
CHANGE FROM THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO FOR
THIS WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THIS PRECIP CHANCE...BOTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE LAST NIGHT/TODAY IN MANY
WAYS...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES/WIND SPEEDS. IN OTHER WORDS VERY
STATUS QUO.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330 PM...ANOTHER
SEASONABLY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH REALLY ABOUT THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TODAY BEING A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...SIGNIFYING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ON
THE MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A BROAD HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH GENERALLY
ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWEST SD INTO COLORADO. THIS GRADIENT...ALONG
WITH MIXING UP INTO THE 850-800 MILLIBAR LAYER PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...IS DRIVING SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY
15-22 MPH ACROSS THE CWA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 22-30 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR VERY MUCH ON TRACK TO END UP WITHIN
GENERALLY 1 DEGREE OF THE EARLY-MORNING FORECAST...WITH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 81-85 RANGE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE AGAIN MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT AS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THIS TIME AROUND SEEM TO BE HOLDING MORE FIRMLY UP INTO
THE 50S THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHT JUMP IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN. STARTING IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A DEEP/EXPANSIVE TROUGH
IS EVER-SO-SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...WITH ITS CLOSED 500MB LOW
CHURNING OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AREA. JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...A
NARROW BUT EVIDENT RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOCAL AREA...A SLOWLY-MEANDERING MID
LEVEL LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW IS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST IA AT THIS TIME...WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM NEAR/ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WHILE JUST BELOW THIS...PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM AROUND 700MB DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (AT LEAST MIDNIGHT)...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST CWA-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RESULTING IN A PLEASANT EVENING. AS TYPICAL...BREEZES WILL
EASE DOWN TOWARD SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED BREEZES THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT ONLY AVERAGING 7-13 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THEN FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (ESPECIALLY POST-08Z/2AM)...THATS
WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS KICKS IN FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF AN ORD-KEARNEY-MANKATO LINE. TO BE
SURE...THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN SCENARIO...AS THERE IS
VARIANCE BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF SUCH AS FROM THE
ECMWF (DRY) AND NAM12 (WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA)...AND ALSO FROM HIGHER-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW...THE FORMER OF WHICH IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION THAN THE LATTER. AT
ANY RATE...ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. AS FOR FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
POSSIBLE CONVECTION...IT LIKELY HAS LESS TO DO WITH THE NEARBY MID
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND MORE TO DO WITH MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND ON
THE 305/310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ONLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...OR ACTUAL SHOWERS/STORMS. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE KEEPING
POPS LOW AT ONLY 20 PERCENT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME CANNOT IGNORE
THE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING...AND DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF A FORMAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA PORTRAYED ON THE
LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHWEST IA...IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AS IT
STARTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN A TOUCH. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...MADE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AGAIN EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR VALUES TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
57-60.

TURNING TO THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS...AND STARTING WITH THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE HEART OF THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE EXPANSIVE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGHS STILL REMAINS SAFELY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND FINALLY GET ON THE MOVE AS IT STARTS
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...ESSENTIALLY CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...WHILE GRADUALLY ENDING THESE SLIGHT POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST...WITH THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCES LIKELY FAVORING THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. FOLLOWING ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM
SOLUTION...CONFIDENCE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON
HOURS VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL
SATURATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND/OR SLIDES OFF EAST OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL ESSENTIALLY BE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ACTUALLY BE JUST A TOUCH WEAKER. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE JUST A FEW MPH WEAKER THAN THOSE
OF TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 12-18 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...ASSUMING
THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOWS ITS HAND ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGHS WON/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THOSE OF TODAY. IN FACT...ESSENTIALLY COPIED-PASTED TODAY/S
HIGHS IN FOR SUNDAY...MEANING GENERALLY 81-85 WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CHANGES ARE COMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH A MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...EXPECT NICE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THAT
SAID...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY BREEZY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSES WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES.
WHILE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TOO ROBUST ACROSS OUR LOCAL
AREA...GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. LATEST SPC PROBS DO INDICATE THIS 5
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING EXTENDING INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND GIVEN UPWARDS OF 1000 JOULES OF CAPE ALONG
WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY EVENING.

WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT NORTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT COULD FIRE UP SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES ON TUESDAY...IF THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA HOLDS. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES...
CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...AND ADDED THIS TO AFTERNOON HWO AS WELL.

AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW TO RAPIDLY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT MOISTURE TO POOL
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
DECENT CAPE VALUES AND MODERATE SHEAR ONCE AGAIN WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...DID MAINTAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS INSTABILITY
WANES...WITH YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT BITTERLY
COLD...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE MID TEENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS SHOULD TAKE
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW CLIMO TO END THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FAIRLY GOOD LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE A FEW QUESTION MARKS
TO CONSIDER REGARDING BOTH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AND ALSO A
VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A GENERIC
VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION TO THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE
JUST SEEMS TO LOW TO EVEN MENTION YET...AND GIVEN IT IS BEYOND THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO RE-
CONSIDER IF NECESSARY. AS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...OPTED TO KEEP
THIS MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE DURING THE 06Z-
14Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT THE OVERALL-MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL ADMITTEDLY
SEEMS A BIT MARGINAL FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION...AS IT CURRENTLY
ONLY APPEARS TO AVERAGE 25-30KT. AT ANY RATE...DEEMED IT NOT WORTH
REMOVING THIS LLWS GROUP GIVEN IT WAS ALREADY ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS TAFS. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...A RATHER CONSISTENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SPEEDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD MID-DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL GENERALLY
20-25KT...WITH LIGHTER SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-12KT
PREVAILING TONIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 272100
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA STILL STANDS A DECENT CHANCE OF
MAKING IT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DRY...A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED/EXPANDED
IN THE FORECAST FOR GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
(INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES) FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE NOTE THIS PRECIP CHANCE...ALBEIT SMALL...REPRESENTS A
CHANGE FROM THE PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO FOR
THIS WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THIS PRECIP CHANCE...BOTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE LAST NIGHT/TODAY IN MANY
WAYS...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES/WIND SPEEDS. IN OTHER WORDS VERY
STATUS QUO.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330 PM...ANOTHER
SEASONABLY WARM...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH REALLY ABOUT THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TODAY BEING A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...SIGNIFYING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ON
THE MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A BROAD HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH GENERALLY
ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWEST SD INTO COLORADO. THIS GRADIENT...ALONG
WITH MIXING UP INTO THE 850-800 MILLIBAR LAYER PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...IS DRIVING SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY
15-22 MPH ACROSS THE CWA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 22-30 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR VERY MUCH ON TRACK TO END UP WITHIN
GENERALLY 1 DEGREE OF THE EARLY-MORNING FORECAST...WITH NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 81-85 RANGE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE AGAIN MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT AS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THIS TIME AROUND SEEM TO BE HOLDING MORE FIRMLY UP INTO
THE 50S THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHT JUMP IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN. STARTING IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A DEEP/EXPANSIVE TROUGH
IS EVER-SO-SLOWLY PUSHING EAST...WITH ITS CLOSED 500MB LOW
CHURNING OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AREA. JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...A
NARROW BUT EVIDENT RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. JUST EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AND ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOCAL AREA...A SLOWLY-MEANDERING MID
LEVEL LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW IS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST IA AT THIS TIME...WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM NEAR/ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WHILE JUST BELOW THIS...PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM AROUND 700MB DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE FORECAST AND STARTING WITH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (AT LEAST MIDNIGHT)...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST CWA-WIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RESULTING IN A PLEASANT EVENING. AS TYPICAL...BREEZES WILL
EASE DOWN TOWARD SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED BREEZES THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT ONLY AVERAGING 7-13 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THEN FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS (ESPECIALLY POST-08Z/2AM)...THATS
WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS KICKS IN FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF AN ORD-KEARNEY-MANKATO LINE. TO BE
SURE...THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN SCENARIO...AS THERE IS
VARIANCE BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF SUCH AS FROM THE
ECMWF (DRY) AND NAM12 (WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA)...AND ALSO FROM HIGHER-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH
AS THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW...THE FORMER OF WHICH IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION THAN THE LATTER. AT
ANY RATE...ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. AS FOR FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS
POSSIBLE CONVECTION...IT LIKELY HAS LESS TO DO WITH THE NEARBY MID
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND MORE TO DO WITH MODEST THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND ON
THE 305/310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ONLY MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...OR ACTUAL SHOWERS/STORMS. OBVIOUSLY WE ARE KEEPING
POPS LOW AT ONLY 20 PERCENT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME CANNOT IGNORE
THE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING...AND DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF A FORMAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA PORTRAYED ON THE
LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHWEST IA...IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AS IT
STARTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN A TOUCH. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...MADE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AGAIN EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR VALUES TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
57-60.

TURNING TO THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS...AND STARTING WITH THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THE HEART OF THE NARROW RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE EXPANSIVE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGHS STILL REMAINS SAFELY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST IA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...OPEN UP AND FINALLY GET ON THE MOVE AS IT STARTS
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...ESSENTIALLY CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...WHILE GRADUALLY ENDING THESE SLIGHT POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST...WITH THE OVERALL-BEST CHANCES LIKELY FAVORING THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. FOLLOWING ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM
SOLUTION...CONFIDENCE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON
HOURS VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL
SATURATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND/OR SLIDES OFF EAST OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL ESSENTIALLY BE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
ACTUALLY BE JUST A TOUCH WEAKER. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE JUST A FEW MPH WEAKER THAN THOSE
OF TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 12-18 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...ASSUMING
THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOWS ITS HAND ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON...SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGHS WON/T BE ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THOSE OF TODAY. IN FACT...ESSENTIALLY COPIED-PASTED TODAY/S
HIGHS IN FOR SUNDAY...MEANING GENERALLY 81-85 WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CHANGES ARE COMING IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH A MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...EXPECT NICE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THAT
SAID...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY BREEZY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSES WESTERN NEBRASKA AND BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES.
WHILE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TOO ROBUST ACROSS OUR LOCAL
AREA...GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. LATEST SPC PROBS DO INDICATE THIS 5
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING EXTENDING INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND GIVEN UPWARDS OF 1000 JOULES OF CAPE ALONG
WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY EVENING.

WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT NORTH WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT COULD FIRE UP SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI CITIES ON TUESDAY...IF THE CURRENT
MODEL DATA HOLDS. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES...
CANNOT RULE OUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...AND ADDED THIS TO AFTERNOON HWO AS WELL.

AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW TO RAPIDLY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT MOISTURE TO POOL
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
DECENT CAPE VALUES AND MODERATE SHEAR ONCE AGAIN WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...DID MAINTAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS INSTABILITY
WANES...WITH YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT BITTERLY
COLD...850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE MID TEENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS SHOULD TAKE
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW CLIMO TO END THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FAIRLY GOOD LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE A FEW QUESTION MARKS
TO CONSIDER REGARDING BOTH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AND ALSO A
VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A GENERIC
VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION TO THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE
JUST SEEMS TO LOW TO EVEN MENTION YET...AND GIVEN IT IS BEYOND THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO RE-
CONSIDER IF NECESSARY. AS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...OPTED TO KEEP
THIS MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE DURING THE 06Z-
14Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT THE OVERALL-MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL ADMITTEDLY
SEEMS A BIT MARGINAL FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION...AS IT CURRENTLY
ONLY APPEARS TO AVERAGE 25-30KT. AT ANY RATE...DEEMED IT NOT WORTH
REMOVING THIS LLWS GROUP GIVEN IT WAS ALREADY ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS TAFS. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...A RATHER CONSISTENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SPEEDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD MID-DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL GENERALLY
20-25KT...WITH LIGHTER SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-12KT
PREVAILING TONIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 271734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE FAIRLY QUIET AND MILD FALL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. ALOFT...A BLOCKY PATTERN IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CA...AND AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST/NORTHEAST CONUS.  IN BETWEEN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ON THE PLAINS...GENERALLY ALONG THE MO
RIVER.

IT WILL BE HARD TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE WEATHER TODAY WITH A MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE.  H85 TEMPS AVERAGE IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL.  HAVE WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE DEEPER
MIXING PROGGED WHICH WILL PLACE HIGHS AROUND 80F GIVE OR TAKE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND THIS
AFTN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY OR EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER
DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS IN
COLORADO...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA AND THE
MEANDERING PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. THE LLVL JET
IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35KTS OVERNIGHT AND THE NOSE OF THE
JET INITIALLY IS ORIENTED NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...THEN SHIFTS
TOWARD EASTERN NEB TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMICS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PLAINS
LOW MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. CANNOT SAY INSTABILITY IS ZERO..AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE H85 TO H7 LAYER...BUT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE HAVE LEFT
OUT MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE LOCATED OVER CANADA SUN WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL CUT-OFF LOW OVER NV. THE UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE GULF OF
AK WILL MOVE ONSHORE MON AND ABSORB THE NV LOW AS IT GETS KICKED NE.
THIS WILL ESTABLISH A FULL LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROF OVER WRN N AMERICA
WITH THE WESTERLIES REDEVELOPING BACK INTO THE USA. THIS TROF WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS THU-FRI...AND CONT INTO THE ERN USA NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NW FLOW HERE ON THE PLAINS.

ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS SUN. THE NV LOW
WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS UT AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO WY MON. THE
REMAINING TROF MOVES THRU HERE TUE AND IT WILL BE POTENT WITH A
NEGATIVE TILT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SW WED IN ITS WAKE...WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND JET STREAK DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHEN THIS TROF MOVES THRU THU-
FRI DUE TO MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY THU WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING
FRI. THE 12Z/26 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE TROF AXIS OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK FRI.

A TROF IN THE W WILL SUPPORT A WET PATTERN UNTIL THE TROF AXIS
PASSES...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN TEMPS THRU WED. THEN TEMPS
WILL TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT THU-FRI. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ONE DAY OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...PROBABLY FRI WITH
THE TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 4 OUT OF THE LAST 7 RUNS OF HIGH-RES
ECMWF 2M TEMPS OFFER A HIGH TEMP AROUND 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN TO THE E FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
...WITH A LEE LOW OVER CO SUN-MON. IN THE MEANTIME...A SLOW-MOVING
COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THE LEE-SIDE LOW
WILL BECOME MOBILE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND TRACK N ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE FCST AREA WED. A NEW LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR DDC. THERE IS A LOT OF CONFLICT
AMONGST THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON IF THIS LOW TRACKS UP THE
FRONT AS WELL...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THU NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W FRI AND BUILD INTO THE REGION.

HAZARDS: TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THEN AGAIN WED AFTERNOON
AND EVE. WED HOLDS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS IN MOISTURE/SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
INTO FRI IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: RIDGE ALOFT. SHOULD BE ANOTHER FANTASTIC FALL DAY OUTSIDE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THAT COULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HRS E OF HWY 281. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE ON QPF. 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" IN 12 HRS ARE NOT
EVEN 50%. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON OCCURRENCE.

BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON W OF HWY 281. SSE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 27
KTS.

USED THE NAM 2M TEMPS AS A STARTING POINT FOR HIGHS AND NUDGED
IT A COUPLE DEGREES UPWARD OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

MON: DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT AND MOST LIKELY DRY. THE FCST DOES
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM W OF HWY 283. WINDY W OF HWY 281
WHERE WINDS WILL G30 KTS. SEE NO REASON FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN MUCH
FROM SUN. WHILE NOT A HUGE DEPARTURE...FAVORED THE WARMER NAM 2M
TEMPS OVER GEM/GFS/EC 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS.

MON NIGHT: THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF WILL BE SUSTAINED BY THE APPROACHING TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS TO PROPAGATE E INTO THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW QUALITY WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS
ONLY 10-11C. COMBINED WITH POOR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE TSTMS.

TUE: NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS THRU. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY
BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AND EXIT TO THE E BY MIDDAY.

MODELS: THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z GEM ARE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGEST
OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS AT 12Z/TUE WITH A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
SHOWN A TREND TOWARD A DEEPER SCENARIO. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR A NON-
GFS CONSENSUS...BUT OVERALL THE THEME IS THE SAME AMONG THE MODELS.
WE WILL HAVE A POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR HANDS.

WED: SW FLOW ALOFT. THE SWATH OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND FROM
ERN NEB DOWN THRU CNTRL/ERN KS. AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 90 KT UPPER-LVL JET NOSES
OUT INTO KS/OK. GREATEST CHANCE OF STORMS PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE
TRI-CITIES. THIS TIME FRAME MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS.

THU: COOLER AS THE TROF MOVES IN. LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL BUT CANT
RULE OUT A SHWR OR TWO.

THU NIGHT: STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHWRS?

FRI: POSSIBLY ONE FINAL TROF? PROBABLY WINDY. DEFINITELY MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE A FEW QUESTION MARKS
TO CONSIDER REGARDING BOTH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AND ALSO A
VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A GENERIC
VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION TO THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE
JUST SEEMS TO LOW TO EVEN MENTION YET...AND GIVEN IT IS BEYOND THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO RE-
CONSIDER IF NECESSARY. AS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...OPTED TO KEEP
THIS MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE DURING THE 06Z-
14Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT THE OVERALL-MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL ADMITTEDLY
SEEMS A BIT MARGINAL FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION...AS IT CURRENTLY
ONLY APPEARS TO AVERAGE 25-30KT. AT ANY RATE...DEEMED IT NOT WORTH
REMOVING THIS LLWS GROUP GIVEN IT WAS ALREADY ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS TAFS. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...A RATHER CONSISTENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SPEEDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD MID-DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL GENERALLY
20-25KT...WITH LIGHTER SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-12KT
PREVAILING TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 271734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE FAIRLY QUIET AND MILD FALL WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. ALOFT...A BLOCKY PATTERN IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A CLOSED LOW IN CA...AND AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST/NORTHEAST CONUS.  IN BETWEEN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ON THE PLAINS...GENERALLY ALONG THE MO
RIVER.

IT WILL BE HARD TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE WEATHER TODAY WITH A MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE.  H85 TEMPS AVERAGE IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL.  HAVE WENT WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE DEEPER
MIXING PROGGED WHICH WILL PLACE HIGHS AROUND 80F GIVE OR TAKE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND THIS
AFTN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY OR EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER
DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS IN
COLORADO...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE WESTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA AND THE
MEANDERING PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. THE LLVL JET
IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35KTS OVERNIGHT AND THE NOSE OF THE
JET INITIALLY IS ORIENTED NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...THEN SHIFTS
TOWARD EASTERN NEB TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMICS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PLAINS
LOW MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT PCPN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. CANNOT SAY INSTABILITY IS ZERO..AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE H85 TO H7 LAYER...BUT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE HAVE LEFT
OUT MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE LOCATED OVER CANADA SUN WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL CUT-OFF LOW OVER NV. THE UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE GULF OF
AK WILL MOVE ONSHORE MON AND ABSORB THE NV LOW AS IT GETS KICKED NE.
THIS WILL ESTABLISH A FULL LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROF OVER WRN N AMERICA
WITH THE WESTERLIES REDEVELOPING BACK INTO THE USA. THIS TROF WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS THU-FRI...AND CONT INTO THE ERN USA NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NW FLOW HERE ON THE PLAINS.

ALOFT: A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS SUN. THE NV LOW
WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS UT AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO WY MON. THE
REMAINING TROF MOVES THRU HERE TUE AND IT WILL BE POTENT WITH A
NEGATIVE TILT. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SW WED IN ITS WAKE...WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND JET STREAK DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROF. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHEN THIS TROF MOVES THRU THU-
FRI DUE TO MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY THU WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING
FRI. THE 12Z/26 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE TROF AXIS OVERHEAD AT
DAYBREAK FRI.

A TROF IN THE W WILL SUPPORT A WET PATTERN UNTIL THE TROF AXIS
PASSES...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN TEMPS THRU WED. THEN TEMPS
WILL TURN COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT THU-FRI. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ONE DAY OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...PROBABLY FRI WITH
THE TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 4 OUT OF THE LAST 7 RUNS OF HIGH-RES
ECMWF 2M TEMPS OFFER A HIGH TEMP AROUND 60F IN THE TRI-CITIES.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN TO THE E FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
...WITH A LEE LOW OVER CO SUN-MON. IN THE MEANTIME...A SLOW-MOVING
COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THE LEE-SIDE LOW
WILL BECOME MOBILE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND TRACK N ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE FCST AREA WED. A NEW LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR DDC. THERE IS A LOT OF CONFLICT
AMONGST THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON IF THIS LOW TRACKS UP THE
FRONT AS WELL...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXIMA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THU NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W FRI AND BUILD INTO THE REGION.

HAZARDS: TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THEN AGAIN WED AFTERNOON
AND EVE. WED HOLDS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS IN MOISTURE/SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
INTO FRI IN COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: RIDGE ALOFT. SHOULD BE ANOTHER FANTASTIC FALL DAY OUTSIDE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THAT COULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HRS E OF HWY 281. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE ON QPF. 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" IN 12 HRS ARE NOT
EVEN 50%. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON OCCURRENCE.

BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON W OF HWY 281. SSE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 27
KTS.

USED THE NAM 2M TEMPS AS A STARTING POINT FOR HIGHS AND NUDGED
IT A COUPLE DEGREES UPWARD OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

MON: DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT AND MOST LIKELY DRY. THE FCST DOES
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A TSTM W OF HWY 283. WINDY W OF HWY 281
WHERE WINDS WILL G30 KTS. SEE NO REASON FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN MUCH
FROM SUN. WHILE NOT A HUGE DEPARTURE...FAVORED THE WARMER NAM 2M
TEMPS OVER GEM/GFS/EC 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS.

MON NIGHT: THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE-SIDE
TROF WILL BE SUSTAINED BY THE APPROACHING TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS TO PROPAGATE E INTO THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW QUALITY WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS
ONLY 10-11C. COMBINED WITH POOR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE TSTMS.

TUE: NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS THRU. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY
BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AND EXIT TO THE E BY MIDDAY.

MODELS: THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z GEM ARE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGEST
OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS AT 12Z/TUE WITH A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE. THE LAST 10 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
SHOWN A TREND TOWARD A DEEPER SCENARIO. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR A NON-
GFS CONSENSUS...BUT OVERALL THE THEME IS THE SAME AMONG THE MODELS.
WE WILL HAVE A POTENT SYSTEM ON OUR HANDS.

WED: SW FLOW ALOFT. THE SWATH OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND FROM
ERN NEB DOWN THRU CNTRL/ERN KS. AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 90 KT UPPER-LVL JET NOSES
OUT INTO KS/OK. GREATEST CHANCE OF STORMS PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE
TRI-CITIES. THIS TIME FRAME MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS.

THU: COOLER AS THE TROF MOVES IN. LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL BUT CANT
RULE OUT A SHWR OR TWO.

THU NIGHT: STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW SHWRS?

FRI: POSSIBLY ONE FINAL TROF? PROBABLY WINDY. DEFINITELY MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN BOTH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE A FEW QUESTION MARKS
TO CONSIDER REGARDING BOTH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AND ALSO A
VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING WITH
THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A GENERIC
VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION TO THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE
JUST SEEMS TO LOW TO EVEN MENTION YET...AND GIVEN IT IS BEYOND THE
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO RE-
CONSIDER IF NECESSARY. AS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...OPTED TO KEEP
THIS MENTION GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE DURING THE 06Z-
14Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT THE OVERALL-MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL ADMITTEDLY
SEEMS A BIT MARGINAL FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION...AS IT CURRENTLY
ONLY APPEARS TO AVERAGE 25-30KT. AT ANY RATE...DEEMED IT NOT WORTH
REMOVING THIS LLWS GROUP GIVEN IT WAS ALREADY ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS TAFS. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...A RATHER CONSISTENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SPEEDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD MID-DAY SUNDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL GENERALLY
20-25KT...WITH LIGHTER SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-12KT
PREVAILING TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




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