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000
FXUS63 KGID 280618
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
118 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL BUT A
FEW COUNTIES ON THE FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AS PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THE LLJ TO ONLY ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. PER LATEST MODEL DATA AND
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HOURLY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SPREADING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WHILE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS INCREASING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DECREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH FOR AUGUST IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND WILL SLOWLY
TRACK OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL CAP ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RATHER EASILY IN BANDS OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MODEST...BUT HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. THE UPPER WAVE IS RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF COMPETITION FOR
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI CITIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA BY LATER EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF THE RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...BASICALLY WILL IT RAIN HARD AND FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. SO THAT IS THE ASPECT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THERE IS NOT MUCH QUESTION ABOUT THE RAIN...IT SHOULD AT LEAST
RAIN...ITS JUST HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALOFT: THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER UT WILL CONT E AND OPEN UP AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS THU-FRI. BY 00Z/SAT THE TROF AXIS WILL BE E
OF THE FCST AREA. THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB EC/GFS/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS
AGREE THAT THE LONGWAVE WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE IS HIGHLY
PROBABLE AND WILL CONT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND THRU
THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI AND CARVE OUT THE NEXT WRN USA TROF SAT-SUN.
THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW HERE BACK TO SW SUN. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AMONGST THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF EC/UKMET/GEM/GFS
...THE TROF LOOKS BROAD WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.

SURFACE: WEAK LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS WILL DRIFT E
OF THE REGION THU-FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK
SAT...BUT HEAD E WITH A NEW LEE TROF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COOL
FRONT PROGRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE.

OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
A ONE-DAY SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL SUN. THEN ITS BACK TO AT OR COOLER THAN
NORMAL MON-TUE. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS/RAIN WILL DECREASE...BUT LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO LIGHT UP SUN EVE.

HAZARDS: SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THU. THE TSTM THREAT
DECREASES FRI WITH NO SEVERE. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG
SEVERE WX DAY. STAY TUNED...

POPS THU-SAT WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 03Z/09Z SREF...THEN TEMPERED
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z/12Z NAM AND COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD DEPICTION IN THE
HOURLY WX GRAPHS ONLINE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT TONIGHT`S MCS WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION AT DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN EXIT TO THE S AND E OVERNIGHT.

THE MCS OCCURRING N OF THE FCST AREA AND THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF
WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ANY TIME
DURING THE DAY...BUT BEST CHANCE DURING/AFTER PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE
2500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS. SEVERE MULTICELLS COULD OCCUR.

FRI: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INTITIATION WILL BE ENTIRELY
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS COULD PRIMARILY S
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MLCAPE NO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG. WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR 10-15 KTS. PULSE TYPE STORM MODE
SUGGESTS LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE.

SAT: DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SAT NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LLJ WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION
IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES /PROBABILITIES
FOR .05" QPF IN 12 HRS/ ARE ROBUST WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLES
SAY NO. MAINTAINED A 20% POP FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ WILL ADVECT A STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /EML/ OVER TOP RICH LOW-LVL DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUN.

SUN: WARM SECTOR WITH A LATE DAY/EVE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEPENDS ON IF WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXITING REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
TSTMS. THE LOCATION OF AFTERNOON/EVE TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD END UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 5 WHICH IS A 30% PROB. SO THE
GRAPHICAL HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 2-3F OVER N-CNTRL KS WITHIN LOW-LVL THERMAL
RIDGE.

MON-WED: FAIR AND DRY. FANTASTIC WX.

MON NIGHT: NOT SURE WHY THE FCST INITIALIZATION HAD 20 POPS IN THE
FCST. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER SRN KS ALONG WITH THE RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO DROP THESE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A RATHER DIFFICULT TAF PERIOD TO FORECAST. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY IMPACTING BOTH
TERMINAL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...OR
BASICALLY UNTIL WE CAN GET THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE KEARNEY
TAF SITE FIRST...WHILE THE GRAND ISLAND TAF SITE MAY BE IMPACTED
ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER. VISIBILITIES MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE
CURRENT TAF...BUT WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN THE VISIBILITIES MAY BE
CLOSER TO MVFR. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN LATER THIS MORNING AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
DIFFICULT PART OF THIS FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING SAID...I AM
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE
REACH PEAK HEATING. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO MVFR OR IFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB/WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO





000
FXUS63 KGID 280236
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
936 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL BUT A
FEW COUNTIES ON THE FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AS PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THE LLJ TO ONLY ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. PER LATEST MODEL DATA AND
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HOURLY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SPREADING RIGHT
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT WHILE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS INCREASING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DECREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH FOR AUGUST IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND WILL SLOWLY
TRACK OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL CAP ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RATHER EASILY IN BANDS OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MODEST...BUT HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. THE UPPER WAVE IS RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF COMPETITION FOR
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI CITIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA BY LATER EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF THE RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...BASICALLY WILL IT RAIN HARD AND FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. SO THAT IS THE ASPECT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THERE IS NOT MUCH QUESTION ABOUT THE RAIN...IT SHOULD AT LEAST
RAIN...ITS JUST HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALOFT: THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER UT WILL CONT E AND OPEN UP AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS THU-FRI. BY 00Z/SAT THE TROF AXIS WILL BE E
OF THE FCST AREA. THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB EC/GFS/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS
AGREE THAT THE LONGWAVE WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE IS HIGHLY
PROBABLE AND WILL CONT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND THRU
THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI AND CARVE OUT THE NEXT WRN USA TROF SAT-SUN.
THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW HERE BACK TO SW SUN. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AMONGST THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF EC/UKMET/GEM/GFS
...THE TROF LOOKS BROAD WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.

SURFACE: WEAK LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS WILL DRIFT E
OF THE REGION THU-FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK
SAT...BUT HEAD E WITH A NEW LEE TROF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COOL
FRONT PROGRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE.

OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
A ONE-DAY SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL SUN. THEN ITS BACK TO AT OR COOLER THAN
NORMAL MON-TUE. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS/RAIN WILL DECREASE...BUT LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO LIGHT UP SUN EVE.

HAZARDS: SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THU. THE TSTM THREAT
DECREASES FRI WITH NO SEVERE. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG
SEVERE WX DAY. STAY TUNED...

POPS THU-SAT WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 03Z/09Z SREF...THEN TEMPERED
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z/12Z NAM AND COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD DEPICTION IN THE
HOURLY WX GRAPHS ONLINE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT TONIGHT`S MCS WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION AT DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN EXIT TO THE S AND E OVERNIGHT.

THE MCS OCCURRING N OF THE FCST AREA AND THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF
WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ANY TIME
DURING THE DAY...BUT BEST CHANCE DURING/AFTER PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE
2500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS. SEVERE MULTICELLS COULD OCCUR.

FRI: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INTITIATION WILL BE ENTIRELY
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS COULD PRIMARILY S
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MLCAPE NO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG. WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR 10-15 KTS. PULSE TYPE STORM MODE
SUGGESTS LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE.

SAT: DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SAT NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LLJ WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION
IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES /PROBABILITIES
FOR .05" QPF IN 12 HRS/ ARE ROBUST WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLES
SAY NO. MAINTAINED A 20% POP FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ WILL ADVECT A STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /EML/ OVER TOP RICH LOW-LVL DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUN.

SUN: WARM SECTOR WITH A LATE DAY/EVE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEPENDS ON IF WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXITING REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
TSTMS. THE LOCATION OF AFTERNOON/EVE TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD END UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 5 WHICH IS A 30% PROB. SO THE
GRAPHICAL HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 2-3F OVER N-CNTRL KS WITHIN LOW-LVL THERMAL
RIDGE.

MON-WED: FAIR AND DRY. FANTASTIC WX.

MON NIGHT: NOT SURE WHY THE FCST INITIALIZATION HAD 20 POPS IN THE
FCST. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER SRN KS ALONG WITH THE RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO DROP THESE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS AS
PREVAILING VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME
MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. IN
ADDITION...WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS...COULD SEE SOME BR
DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES DROP OFF...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
DENSE AS WINDS WILL BE NEAR 8 KTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT
TRY AND TIME ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE IN THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO KEPT A VCTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017-
     018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB/WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 272354
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
654 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH FOR AUGUST IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND WILL SLOWLY
TRACK OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL CAP ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RATHER EASILY IN BANDS OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MODEST...BUT HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. THE UPPER WAVE IS RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF COMPETITION FOR
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI CITIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA BY LATER EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF THE RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...BASICALLY WILL IT RAIN HARD AND FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. SO THAT IS THE ASPECT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THERE IS NOT MUCH QUESTION ABOUT THE RAIN...IT SHOULD AT LEAST
RAIN...ITS JUST HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALOFT: THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER UT WILL CONT E AND OPEN UP AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS THU-FRI. BY 00Z/SAT THE TROF AXIS WILL BE E
OF THE FCST AREA. THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB EC/GFS/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS
AGREE THAT THE LONGWAVE WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE IS HIGHLY
PROBABLE AND WILL CONT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND THRU
THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI AND CARVE OUT THE NEXT WRN USA TROF SAT-SUN.
THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW HERE BACK TO SW SUN. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AMONGST THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF EC/UKMET/GEM/GFS
...THE TROF LOOKS BROAD WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.

SURFACE: WEAK LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS WILL DRIFT E
OF THE REGION THU-FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK
SAT...BUT HEAD E WITH A NEW LEE TROF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COOL
FRONT PROGRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE.

OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
A ONE-DAY SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL SUN. THEN ITS BACK TO AT OR COOLER THAN
NORMAL MON-TUE. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS/RAIN WILL DECREASE...BUT LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO LIGHT UP SUN EVE.

HAZARDS: SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THU. THE TSTM THREAT
DECREASES FRI WITH NO SEVERE. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG
SEVERE WX DAY. STAY TUNED...

POPS THU-SAT WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 03Z/09Z SREF...THEN TEMPERED
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z/12Z NAM AND COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD DEPICTION IN THE
HOURLY WX GRAPHS ONLINE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT TONIGHT`S MCS WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION AT DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN EXIT TO THE S AND E OVERNIGHT.

THE MCS OCCURRING N OF THE FCST AREA AND THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF
WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ANY TIME
DURING THE DAY...BUT BEST CHANCE DURING/AFTER PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE
2500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS. SEVERE MULTICELLS COULD OCCUR.

FRI: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INTITIATION WILL BE ENTIRELY
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS COULD PRIMARILY S
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MLCAPE NO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG. WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR 10-15 KTS. PULSE TYPE STORM MODE
SUGGESTS LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE.

SAT: DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SAT NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LLJ WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION
IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES /PROBABILITIES
FOR .05" QPF IN 12 HRS/ ARE ROBUST WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLES
SAY NO. MAINTAINED A 20% POP FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ WILL ADVECT A STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /EML/ OVER TOP RICH LOW-LVL DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUN.

SUN: WARM SECTOR WITH A LATE DAY/EVE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEPENDS ON IF WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXITING REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
TSTMS. THE LOCATION OF AFTERNOON/EVE TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD END UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 5 WHICH IS A 30% PROB. SO THE
GRAPHICAL HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 2-3F OVER N-CNTRL KS WITHIN LOW-LVL THERMAL
RIDGE.

MON-WED: FAIR AND DRY. FANTASTIC WX.

MON NIGHT: NOT SURE WHY THE FCST INITIALIZATION HAD 20 POPS IN THE
FCST. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER SRN KS ALONG WITH THE RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO DROP THESE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS AS
PREVAILING VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME
MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. IN
ADDITION...WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS...COULD SEE SOME BR
DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES DROP OFF...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
DENSE AS WINDS WILL BE NEAR 8 KTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT
TRY AND TIME ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE IN THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO KEPT A VCTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB/WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 272354
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
654 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH FOR AUGUST IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND WILL SLOWLY
TRACK OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL CAP ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RATHER EASILY IN BANDS OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MODEST...BUT HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. THE UPPER WAVE IS RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF COMPETITION FOR
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI CITIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA BY LATER EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF THE RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...BASICALLY WILL IT RAIN HARD AND FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. SO THAT IS THE ASPECT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THERE IS NOT MUCH QUESTION ABOUT THE RAIN...IT SHOULD AT LEAST
RAIN...ITS JUST HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALOFT: THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER UT WILL CONT E AND OPEN UP AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS THU-FRI. BY 00Z/SAT THE TROF AXIS WILL BE E
OF THE FCST AREA. THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB EC/GFS/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS
AGREE THAT THE LONGWAVE WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE IS HIGHLY
PROBABLE AND WILL CONT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND THRU
THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI AND CARVE OUT THE NEXT WRN USA TROF SAT-SUN.
THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW HERE BACK TO SW SUN. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AMONGST THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF EC/UKMET/GEM/GFS
...THE TROF LOOKS BROAD WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.

SURFACE: WEAK LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS WILL DRIFT E
OF THE REGION THU-FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK
SAT...BUT HEAD E WITH A NEW LEE TROF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COOL
FRONT PROGRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE.

OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
A ONE-DAY SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL SUN. THEN ITS BACK TO AT OR COOLER THAN
NORMAL MON-TUE. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS/RAIN WILL DECREASE...BUT LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO LIGHT UP SUN EVE.

HAZARDS: SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THU. THE TSTM THREAT
DECREASES FRI WITH NO SEVERE. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG
SEVERE WX DAY. STAY TUNED...

POPS THU-SAT WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 03Z/09Z SREF...THEN TEMPERED
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z/12Z NAM AND COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD DEPICTION IN THE
HOURLY WX GRAPHS ONLINE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT TONIGHT`S MCS WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION AT DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN EXIT TO THE S AND E OVERNIGHT.

THE MCS OCCURRING N OF THE FCST AREA AND THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF
WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ANY TIME
DURING THE DAY...BUT BEST CHANCE DURING/AFTER PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE
2500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS. SEVERE MULTICELLS COULD OCCUR.

FRI: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INTITIATION WILL BE ENTIRELY
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS COULD PRIMARILY S
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MLCAPE NO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG. WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR 10-15 KTS. PULSE TYPE STORM MODE
SUGGESTS LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE.

SAT: DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SAT NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LLJ WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION
IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES /PROBABILITIES
FOR .05" QPF IN 12 HRS/ ARE ROBUST WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLES
SAY NO. MAINTAINED A 20% POP FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ WILL ADVECT A STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /EML/ OVER TOP RICH LOW-LVL DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUN.

SUN: WARM SECTOR WITH A LATE DAY/EVE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEPENDS ON IF WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXITING REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
TSTMS. THE LOCATION OF AFTERNOON/EVE TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD END UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 5 WHICH IS A 30% PROB. SO THE
GRAPHICAL HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 2-3F OVER N-CNTRL KS WITHIN LOW-LVL THERMAL
RIDGE.

MON-WED: FAIR AND DRY. FANTASTIC WX.

MON NIGHT: NOT SURE WHY THE FCST INITIALIZATION HAD 20 POPS IN THE
FCST. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER SRN KS ALONG WITH THE RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO DROP THESE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS AS
PREVAILING VFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME
MVFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1500 FT AGL. IN
ADDITION...WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS...COULD SEE SOME BR
DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES DROP OFF...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
DENSE AS WINDS WILL BE NEAR 8 KTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT
TRY AND TIME ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THEY WILL BE IN THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO KEPT A VCTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB/WESELY
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 272103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH FOR AUGUST IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND WILL SLOWLY
TRACK OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL CAP ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RATHER EASILY IN BANDS OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MODEST...BUT HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. THE UPPER WAVE IS RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF COMPETITION FOR
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI CITIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA BY LATER EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF THE RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...BASICALLY WILL IT RAIN HARD AND FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. SO THAT IS THE ASPECT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THERE IS NOT MUCH QUESTION ABOUT THE RAIN...IT SHOULD AT LEAST
RAIN...ITS JUST HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALOFT: THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER UT WILL CONT E AND OPEN UP AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS THU-FRI. BY 00Z/SAT THE TROF AXIS WILL BE E
OF THE FCST AREA. THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB EC/GFS/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS
AGREE THAT THE LONGWAVE WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE IS HIGHLY
PROBABLE AND WILL CONT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND THRU
THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI AND CARVE OUT THE NEXT WRN USA TROF SAT-SUN.
THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW HERE BACK TO SW SUN. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AMONGST THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF EC/UKMET/GEM/GFS
...THE TROF LOOKS BROAD WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.

SURFACE: WEAK LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS WILL DRIFT E
OF THE REGION THU-FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK
SAT...BUT HEAD E WITH A NEW LEE TROF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COOL
FRONT PROGRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE.

OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
A ONE-DAY SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL SUN. THEN ITS BACK TO AT OR COOLER THAN
NORMAL MON-TUE. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS/RAIN WILL DECREASE...BUT LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO LIGHT UP SUN EVE.

HAZARDS: SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THU. THE TSTM THREAT
DECREASES FRI WITH NO SEVERE. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG
SEVERE WX DAY. STAY TUNED...

POPS THU-SAT WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 03Z/09Z SREF...THEN TEMPERED
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z/12Z NAM AND COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD DEPICTION IN THE
HOURLY WX GRAPHS ONLINE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT TONIGHT`S MCS WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION AT DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN EXIT TO THE S AND E OVERNIGHT.

THE MCS OCCURRING N OF THE FCST AREA AND THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF
WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ANY TIME
DURING THE DAY...BUT BEST CHANCE DURING/AFTER PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE
2500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS. SEVERE MULTICELLS COULD OCCUR.

FRI: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INTITIATION WILL BE ENTIRELY
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS COULD PRIMARILY S
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MLCAPE NO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG. WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR 10-15 KTS. PULSE TYPE STORM MODE
SUGGESTS LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE.

SAT: DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SAT NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LLJ WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION
IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES /PROBABILITIES
FOR .05" QPF IN 12 HRS/ ARE ROBUST WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLES
SAY NO. MAINTAINED A 20% POP FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ WILL ADVECT A STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /EML/ OVER TOP RICH LOW-LVL DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUN.

SUN: WARM SECTOR WITH A LATE DAY/EVE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEPENDS ON IF WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXITING REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
TSTMS. THE LOCATION OF AFTERNOON/EVE TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD END UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 5 WHICH IS A 30% PROB. SO THE
GRAPHICAL HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 2-3F OVER N-CNTRL KS WITHIN LOW-LVL THERMAL
RIDGE.

MON-WED: FAIR AND DRY. FANTASTIC WX.

MON NIGHT: NOT SURE WHY THE FCST INITIALIZATION HAD 20 POPS IN THE
FCST. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER SRN KS ALONG WITH THE RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO DROP THESE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH BIG QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED
CEILING REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF KGRI/KEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A LOT OF VARIATION TODAY BETWEEN THE MVFR
AND VFR CATEGORIES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB/WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 272103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH FOR AUGUST IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA AND WILL SLOWLY
TRACK OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
AREAS. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL CAP ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM RATHER EASILY IN BANDS OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT THESE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY BETWEEN SUNSET AND
MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INSTABILITY IS MODEST...BUT HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE. THE UPPER WAVE IS RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS OUR KANSAS
ZONES. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF COMPETITION FOR
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND EXPECT INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
TRI CITIES WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA BY LATER EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION IF THE RAIN RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...BASICALLY WILL IT RAIN HARD AND FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. SO THAT IS THE ASPECT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THERE IS NOT MUCH QUESTION ABOUT THE RAIN...IT SHOULD AT LEAST
RAIN...ITS JUST HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALOFT: THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER UT WILL CONT E AND OPEN UP AS IT
CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS THU-FRI. BY 00Z/SAT THE TROF AXIS WILL BE E
OF THE FCST AREA. THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB EC/GFS/GEM ENSEMBLE MEANS
AGREE THAT THE LONGWAVE WRN USA TROF/ERN USA RIDGE IS HIGHLY
PROBABLE AND WILL CONT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND THRU
THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI AND CARVE OUT THE NEXT WRN USA TROF SAT-SUN.
THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW HERE BACK TO SW SUN. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AMONGST THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF EC/UKMET/GEM/GFS
...THE TROF LOOKS BROAD WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT SPECIFICS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER.

SURFACE: WEAK LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS WILL DRIFT E
OF THE REGION THU-FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK
SAT...BUT HEAD E WITH A NEW LEE TROF DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COOL
FRONT PROGRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES MON-TUE.

OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR TEMPS AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
A ONE-DAY SPIKE ABOVE NORMAL SUN. THEN ITS BACK TO AT OR COOLER THAN
NORMAL MON-TUE. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS/RAIN WILL DECREASE...BUT LOOK
FOR THE FRONT TO LIGHT UP SUN EVE.

HAZARDS: SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THU. THE TSTM THREAT
DECREASES FRI WITH NO SEVERE. SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG
SEVERE WX DAY. STAY TUNED...

POPS THU-SAT WERE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 03Z/09Z SREF...THEN TEMPERED
WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/06Z/12Z NAM AND COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD DEPICTION IN THE
HOURLY WX GRAPHS ONLINE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT TONIGHT`S MCS WILL BE
DEPARTING THE REGION AT DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE
TSTM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN EXIT TO THE S AND E OVERNIGHT.

THE MCS OCCURRING N OF THE FCST AREA AND THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPR TROF
WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ANY TIME
DURING THE DAY...BUT BEST CHANCE DURING/AFTER PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE
2500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR 20-25 KTS. SEVERE MULTICELLS COULD OCCUR.

FRI: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTM INTITIATION WILL BE ENTIRELY
S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW TSTMS COULD PRIMARILY S
AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MLCAPE NO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG. WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN 0-6 KM SHEAR 10-15 KTS. PULSE TYPE STORM MODE
SUGGESTS LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE.

SAT: DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. EXCELLENT
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SAT NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LLJ WILL DEVELOP. THE QUESTION
IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES /PROBABILITIES
FOR .05" QPF IN 12 HRS/ ARE ROBUST WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLES
SAY NO. MAINTAINED A 20% POP FROM THE 4 AM FCST.

DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ WILL ADVECT A STOUT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /EML/ OVER TOP RICH LOW-LVL DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUN.

SUN: WARM SECTOR WITH A LATE DAY/EVE COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEPENDS ON IF WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXITING REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
TSTMS. THE LOCATION OF AFTERNOON/EVE TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD END UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 5 WHICH IS A 30% PROB. SO THE
GRAPHICAL HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 2-3F OVER N-CNTRL KS WITHIN LOW-LVL THERMAL
RIDGE.

MON-WED: FAIR AND DRY. FANTASTIC WX.

MON NIGHT: NOT SURE WHY THE FCST INITIALIZATION HAD 20 POPS IN THE
FCST. THE FRONT WILL BE OVER SRN KS ALONG WITH THE RICH LOW-LVL
MOISTURE. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO DROP THESE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH BIG QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED
CEILING REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF KGRI/KEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A LOT OF VARIATION TODAY BETWEEN THE MVFR
AND VFR CATEGORIES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB/WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 271802
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS...WE ARE STARING AT ANOTHER
CHALLENGING 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF LOCATION/TIMING OF THE BEST
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND OF COURSE THE ASSOCIATED ISSUES OF
WHETHER OR NOT FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING COULD MATERIALIZE AT SOME
POINT...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD
FEATURE A BIT GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE CONDITIONALLY TIED TO WHETHER
ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN MANAGE TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. SO MANY QUESTION
MARKS...

BEFORE GOING ANY FARTHER...WANT TO COVER REASONING BEHIND THE
24-HOUR EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA...WHICH NOW RUNS THROUGH
15Z/10AM THURSDAY. THERE WERE A FEW OPTIONS HERE. ONE OF THESE
OPTIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN TO CANCEL THE HEADLINE BASED ON LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING...WHILE
ANOTHER OPTION WOULD HAVE BEEN TO SIMPLY LET IT RIDE AS ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
OPTIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE AS THE FORMER MIGHT GIVE THE IMPRESSION
THAT ANY THREAT OF FLOODING IS ALREADY OVER FOR THE WEEK BEFORE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN EVEN FALLS...WHILE THE LATTER WOULD HAVE MADE
IT APPEAR THAT THE "MAIN EVENT" MIGHT BE OVER BY MID-MORNING
TODAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING WELL BEYOND THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...FELT IT WAS PRETTY MUCH UNAVOIDABLE TO EXTEND ANOTHER
24 HOURS AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT FLOOD ISSUES COULD STILL OCCUR...AT
LEAST ON A LOCALIZED BASIS BUT OF COURSE NOT WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WATCH AREA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ANOTHER OPTION WAS TO TACK MORE
COUNTIES ONTO THE EXISTING WATCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WITHIN THE WESTERN CWA (AT LEAST SO FAR) HAS NOT BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY OBSERVED ROUGHLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...WOULD RATHER LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL. AT
ANY RATE...AT LEAST THE EXISTING WATCH COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY YORK)
ARE THE ONES THAT LIKELY FEATURE THE OVERALL MOST SATURATED
GROUND BASED ON RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY NIGHT.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0930Z/430 AM...A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE A SLOWLY BUT
STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESS OUT OF THE WESTERN CWA INTO THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES...WHILE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN LEFT HIGH AND DRY THUS FAR. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE BIG PICTURE STILL FEATURES ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WELL OUT AHEAD OF A PARENT CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT AT 500 MILLIBARS CHURNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS UT. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LOW...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
ARE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LARGELY TIED TO THE LEADING EDGES OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER
AREA...ALONG WITH HELP FROM A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 850
MILLIBARS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
EVIDENT ON THE 310K SURFACE. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY ONLY
500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY TALL/NARROW CAPE PROFILES
IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE
SURFACE...APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES GENERALLY EASTERLY
BREEZES OF 56-10 MPH PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN EAST-WEST
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOOSELY DRAPED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN
KS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 65-70
RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD INITIALLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERIC MENTION OF NON-DENSE PATCHY FOG UNTIL SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE
WITHIN NORTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE DROPPED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ON THE NEXT
UPDATE AS CONVECTION MOVES IN AND STIRS OUT ANY LIGHT FOG THAT
MIGHT EXIST. OTHERWISE...IN THE BIG PICTURE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE MAIN LOW TO THE WEST REACHES
THE NORTHWEST CO AREA BY SUNSET. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...HAVE
RELIED MORE HEAVILY THAN USUAL ON THE HIGHER-RES SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OF MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND NSSL
4KM WRF FOR HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TODAY. VERY GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST
RANDOM SPOTTY RE-DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
TODAY...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST 40-50 POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING. BY
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE NEXT ISSUE BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...WITH THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED-
LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF UP TO AROUND 35KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CERTAINLY WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...BUT AM CURRENTLY QUESTIONING JUST HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION MIGHT REALLY TAKE PLACE. CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH
WITH THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE DOUBTS THAT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNLESS SOMETHING TRACKS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY NEAR/WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. OBVIOUSLY DAY SHIFT WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHETHER THIS IS MORE OF A LIMITED OR POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE
ROBUST THREAT AS MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN
TOOK A FAIRLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STAB USING A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH ACTUALLY WORKED REASONABLY WELL FOR YESTERDAY.
THIS YIELDS A RANGE FROM MID 70S NORTH...80S NEAR THE STATE LINE
AND NEAR 90 FAR SOUTH.

TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...DECENT/INCREASING LARGE
SCALE FORCING CONTINUES AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FROM
TODAY GRADUALLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST...WHILE THE MAIN LOW OVER CO
EDGES EVER-CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE NOSE OF THIS
JET APPEARS TO AIM INCREASINGLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT GOES. VERY GENERALLY THEN...AND AGAIN LEANING ON SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
EARLY ON...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE
AND/OR DEPARTS MORE TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANY LOCATION
SEEING A PASSING SHOWER/STORM AT ANY POINT IN THE NIGHT...SO KEPT
AT LEAST 50 POPS ALL AREAS. HAVE LITTLE DOUBT THAT SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS EARLY TODAY...BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE SITUATION JUST DOES NOT SEEM OMINOUS
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO JUSTIFY AN EXPANSION OF THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 64-68.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN
GOOD LIFT/WAA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE GFS/12Z ECMWF CLOSE OFF THE
CIRCULATION ON THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM/00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND KEEP THE SYSTEM AS AN UPPER WAVE. THE DEEPER SLOWER
TROUGH SOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS LONGER ACROSS OUR REGION
THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN TROUGH SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

WITH THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN FOR OUR
REGION.  INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE UNDER 30KTS...SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE HIT OR MISS.  HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AN INCH
AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES AND CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SATURATING/SATURATED GROUND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THE LATEST WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT W/E BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH. THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE OUTER PERIOD THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE
EXTENDED INIT ATTM WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING AROUND THE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH BIG QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED
CEILING REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF KGRI/KEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A LOT OF VARIATION TODAY BETWEEN THE MVFR
AND VFR CATEGORIES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 271802
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS...WE ARE STARING AT ANOTHER
CHALLENGING 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF LOCATION/TIMING OF THE BEST
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND OF COURSE THE ASSOCIATED ISSUES OF
WHETHER OR NOT FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING COULD MATERIALIZE AT SOME
POINT...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD
FEATURE A BIT GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE CONDITIONALLY TIED TO WHETHER
ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN MANAGE TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. SO MANY QUESTION
MARKS...

BEFORE GOING ANY FARTHER...WANT TO COVER REASONING BEHIND THE
24-HOUR EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA...WHICH NOW RUNS THROUGH
15Z/10AM THURSDAY. THERE WERE A FEW OPTIONS HERE. ONE OF THESE
OPTIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN TO CANCEL THE HEADLINE BASED ON LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING...WHILE
ANOTHER OPTION WOULD HAVE BEEN TO SIMPLY LET IT RIDE AS ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
OPTIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE AS THE FORMER MIGHT GIVE THE IMPRESSION
THAT ANY THREAT OF FLOODING IS ALREADY OVER FOR THE WEEK BEFORE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN EVEN FALLS...WHILE THE LATTER WOULD HAVE MADE
IT APPEAR THAT THE "MAIN EVENT" MIGHT BE OVER BY MID-MORNING
TODAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING WELL BEYOND THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...FELT IT WAS PRETTY MUCH UNAVOIDABLE TO EXTEND ANOTHER
24 HOURS AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT FLOOD ISSUES COULD STILL OCCUR...AT
LEAST ON A LOCALIZED BASIS BUT OF COURSE NOT WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WATCH AREA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ANOTHER OPTION WAS TO TACK MORE
COUNTIES ONTO THE EXISTING WATCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WITHIN THE WESTERN CWA (AT LEAST SO FAR) HAS NOT BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY OBSERVED ROUGHLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...WOULD RATHER LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL. AT
ANY RATE...AT LEAST THE EXISTING WATCH COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY YORK)
ARE THE ONES THAT LIKELY FEATURE THE OVERALL MOST SATURATED
GROUND BASED ON RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY NIGHT.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0930Z/430 AM...A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE A SLOWLY BUT
STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESS OUT OF THE WESTERN CWA INTO THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES...WHILE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN LEFT HIGH AND DRY THUS FAR. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE BIG PICTURE STILL FEATURES ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WELL OUT AHEAD OF A PARENT CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT AT 500 MILLIBARS CHURNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS UT. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LOW...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
ARE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LARGELY TIED TO THE LEADING EDGES OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER
AREA...ALONG WITH HELP FROM A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 850
MILLIBARS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
EVIDENT ON THE 310K SURFACE. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY ONLY
500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY TALL/NARROW CAPE PROFILES
IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE
SURFACE...APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES GENERALLY EASTERLY
BREEZES OF 56-10 MPH PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN EAST-WEST
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOOSELY DRAPED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN
KS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 65-70
RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD INITIALLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERIC MENTION OF NON-DENSE PATCHY FOG UNTIL SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE
WITHIN NORTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE DROPPED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ON THE NEXT
UPDATE AS CONVECTION MOVES IN AND STIRS OUT ANY LIGHT FOG THAT
MIGHT EXIST. OTHERWISE...IN THE BIG PICTURE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE MAIN LOW TO THE WEST REACHES
THE NORTHWEST CO AREA BY SUNSET. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...HAVE
RELIED MORE HEAVILY THAN USUAL ON THE HIGHER-RES SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OF MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND NSSL
4KM WRF FOR HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TODAY. VERY GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST
RANDOM SPOTTY RE-DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
TODAY...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST 40-50 POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING. BY
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE NEXT ISSUE BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...WITH THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED-
LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF UP TO AROUND 35KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CERTAINLY WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...BUT AM CURRENTLY QUESTIONING JUST HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION MIGHT REALLY TAKE PLACE. CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH
WITH THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE DOUBTS THAT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNLESS SOMETHING TRACKS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY NEAR/WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. OBVIOUSLY DAY SHIFT WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHETHER THIS IS MORE OF A LIMITED OR POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE
ROBUST THREAT AS MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN
TOOK A FAIRLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STAB USING A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH ACTUALLY WORKED REASONABLY WELL FOR YESTERDAY.
THIS YIELDS A RANGE FROM MID 70S NORTH...80S NEAR THE STATE LINE
AND NEAR 90 FAR SOUTH.

TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...DECENT/INCREASING LARGE
SCALE FORCING CONTINUES AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FROM
TODAY GRADUALLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST...WHILE THE MAIN LOW OVER CO
EDGES EVER-CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE NOSE OF THIS
JET APPEARS TO AIM INCREASINGLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT GOES. VERY GENERALLY THEN...AND AGAIN LEANING ON SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
EARLY ON...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE
AND/OR DEPARTS MORE TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANY LOCATION
SEEING A PASSING SHOWER/STORM AT ANY POINT IN THE NIGHT...SO KEPT
AT LEAST 50 POPS ALL AREAS. HAVE LITTLE DOUBT THAT SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS EARLY TODAY...BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE SITUATION JUST DOES NOT SEEM OMINOUS
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO JUSTIFY AN EXPANSION OF THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 64-68.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN
GOOD LIFT/WAA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE GFS/12Z ECMWF CLOSE OFF THE
CIRCULATION ON THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM/00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND KEEP THE SYSTEM AS AN UPPER WAVE. THE DEEPER SLOWER
TROUGH SOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS LONGER ACROSS OUR REGION
THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN TROUGH SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

WITH THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN FOR OUR
REGION.  INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE UNDER 30KTS...SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE HIT OR MISS.  HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AN INCH
AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES AND CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SATURATING/SATURATED GROUND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THE LATEST WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT W/E BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH. THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE OUTER PERIOD THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE
EXTENDED INIT ATTM WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING AROUND THE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THIS IS A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH BIG QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATED
CEILING REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN MORE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWERS AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF KGRI/KEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A LOT OF VARIATION TODAY BETWEEN THE MVFR
AND VFR CATEGORIES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 271158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS...WE ARE STARING AT ANOTHER
CHALLENGING 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF LOCATION/TIMING OF THE BEST
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND OF COURSE THE ASSOCIATED ISSUES OF
WHETHER OR NOT FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING COULD MATERIALIZE AT SOME
POINT...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD
FEATURE A BIT GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE CONDITIONALLY TIED TO WHETHER
ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN MANAGE TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. SO MANY QUESTION
MARKS...

BEFORE GOING ANY FARTHER...WANT TO COVER REASONING BEHIND THE
24-HOUR EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA...WHICH NOW RUNS THROUGH
15Z/10AM THURSDAY. THERE WERE A FEW OPTIONS HERE. ONE OF THESE
OPTIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN TO CANCEL THE HEADLINE BASED ON LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING...WHILE
ANOTHER OPTION WOULD HAVE BEEN TO SIMPLY LET IT RIDE AS ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
OPTIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE AS THE FORMER MIGHT GIVE THE IMPRESSION
THAT ANY THREAT OF FLOODING IS ALREADY OVER FOR THE WEEK BEFORE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN EVEN FALLS...WHILE THE LATTER WOULD HAVE MADE
IT APPEAR THAT THE "MAIN EVENT" MIGHT BE OVER BY MID-MORNING
TODAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING WELL BEYOND THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...FELT IT WAS PRETTY MUCH UNAVOIDABLE TO EXTEND ANOTHER
24 HOURS AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT FLOOD ISSUES COULD STILL OCCUR...AT
LEAST ON A LOCALIZED BASIS BUT OF COURSE NOT WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WATCH AREA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ANOTHER OPTION WAS TO TACK MORE
COUNTIES ONTO THE EXISTING WATCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WITHIN THE WESTERN CWA (AT LEAST SO FAR) HAS NOT BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY OBSERVED ROUGHLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...WOULD RATHER LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL. AT
ANY RATE...AT LEAST THE EXISTING WATCH COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY YORK)
ARE THE ONES THAT LIKELY FEATURE THE OVERALL MOST SATURATED
GROUND BASED ON RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY NIGHT.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0930Z/430 AM...A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE A SLOWLY BUT
STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESS OUT OF THE WESTERN CWA INTO THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES...WHILE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN LEFT HIGH AND DRY THUS FAR. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE BIG PICTURE STILL FEATURES ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WELL OUT AHEAD OF A PARENT CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT AT 500 MILLIBARS CHURNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS UT. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LOW...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
ARE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LARGELY TIED TO THE LEADING EDGES OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER
AREA...ALONG WITH HELP FROM A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 850
MILLIBARS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
EVIDENT ON THE 310K SURFACE. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY ONLY
500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY TALL/NARROW CAPE PROFILES
IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE
SURFACE...APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES GENERALLY EASTERLY
BREEZES OF 56-10 MPH PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN EAST-WEST
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOOSELY DRAPED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN
KS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 65-70
RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD INITIALLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERIC MENTION OF NON-DENSE PATCHY FOG UNTIL SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE
WITHIN NORTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE DROPPED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ON THE NEXT
UPDATE AS CONVECTION MOVES IN AND STIRS OUT ANY LIGHT FOG THAT
MIGHT EXIST. OTHERWISE...IN THE BIG PICTURE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE MAIN LOW TO THE WEST REACHES
THE NORTHWEST CO AREA BY SUNSET. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...HAVE
RELIED MORE HEAVILY THAN USUAL ON THE HIGHER-RES SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OF MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND NSSL
4KM WRF FOR HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TODAY. VERY GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST
RANDOM SPOTTY RE-DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
TODAY...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST 40-50 POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING. BY
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE NEXT ISSUE BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...WITH THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED-
LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF UP TO AROUND 35KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CERTAINLY WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...BUT AM CURRENTLY QUESTIONING JUST HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION MIGHT REALLY TAKE PLACE. CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH
WITH THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE DOUBTS THAT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNLESS SOMETHING TRACKS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY NEAR/WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. OBVIOUSLY DAY SHIFT WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHETHER THIS IS MORE OF A LIMITED OR POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE
ROBUST THREAT AS MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN
TOOK A FAIRLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STAB USING A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH ACTUALLY WORKED REASONABLY WELL FOR YESTERDAY.
THIS YIELDS A RANGE FROM MID 70S NORTH...80S NEAR THE STATE LINE
AND NEAR 90 FAR SOUTH.

TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...DECENT/INCREASING LARGE
SCALE FORCING CONTINUES AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FROM
TODAY GRADUALLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST...WHILE THE MAIN LOW OVER CO
EDGES EVER-CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE NOSE OF THIS
JET APPEARS TO AIM INCREASINGLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT GOES. VERY GENERALLY THEN...AND AGAIN LEANING ON SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
EARLY ON...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE
AND/OR DEPARTS MORE TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANY LOCATION
SEEING A PASSING SHOWER/STORM AT ANY POINT IN THE NIGHT...SO KEPT
AT LEAST 50 POPS ALL AREAS. HAVE LITTLE DOUBT THAT SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS EARLY TODAY...BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE SITUATION JUST DOES NOT SEEM OMINOUS
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO JUSTIFY AN EXPANSION OF THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 64-68.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN
GOOD LIFT/WAA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE GFS/12Z ECMWF CLOSE OFF THE
CIRCULATION ON THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM/00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND KEEP THE SYSTEM AS AN UPPER WAVE. THE DEEPER SLOWER
TROUGH SOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS LONGER ACROSS OUR REGION
THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN TROUGH SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

WITH THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN FOR OUR
REGION.  INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE UNDER 30KTS...SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE HIT OR MISS.  HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AN INCH
AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES AND CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SATURATING/SATURATED GROUND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THE LATEST WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT W/E BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH. THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE OUTER PERIOD THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE
EXTENDED INIT ATTM WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING AROUND THE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING 24 HOURS CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY CEILING/VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING...AN INITIAL
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY DEPARTING
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A TEMPO GROUP FOR STEADIER
RAIN AT KGRI FOR THE FIRST 2 HOURS. AT KEAR ALREADY...AND LATER
THIS MORNING AT KGRI...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE LIKELY RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE
AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
NEXT BATCH OF STEADIER RAIN IS LIKELY BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PINPOINT ANY LOW-CONFIDENCE
TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUPS...BUT INSTEAD STICK WITH A BASIC
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SOME STORMS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ONGOING PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY MIXED OUT ANY POTENTIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THAT WERE
PRESENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED ANY SUB-VFR
CEILING FROM THE LATEST FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY NO
GUARANTEE THAT LOW CEILINGS WONT AT LEAST BRIEFLY REDEVELOP AT
SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...OUTSIDE OF
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THEY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AROUND 10KT OR LESS. IN CLOSING...STAY
TUNED FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
CEILING TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 271158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS...WE ARE STARING AT ANOTHER
CHALLENGING 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF LOCATION/TIMING OF THE BEST
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND OF COURSE THE ASSOCIATED ISSUES OF
WHETHER OR NOT FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING COULD MATERIALIZE AT SOME
POINT...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD
FEATURE A BIT GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE CONDITIONALLY TIED TO WHETHER
ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN MANAGE TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. SO MANY QUESTION
MARKS...

BEFORE GOING ANY FARTHER...WANT TO COVER REASONING BEHIND THE
24-HOUR EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA...WHICH NOW RUNS THROUGH
15Z/10AM THURSDAY. THERE WERE A FEW OPTIONS HERE. ONE OF THESE
OPTIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN TO CANCEL THE HEADLINE BASED ON LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING...WHILE
ANOTHER OPTION WOULD HAVE BEEN TO SIMPLY LET IT RIDE AS ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
OPTIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE AS THE FORMER MIGHT GIVE THE IMPRESSION
THAT ANY THREAT OF FLOODING IS ALREADY OVER FOR THE WEEK BEFORE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN EVEN FALLS...WHILE THE LATTER WOULD HAVE MADE
IT APPEAR THAT THE "MAIN EVENT" MIGHT BE OVER BY MID-MORNING
TODAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING WELL BEYOND THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...FELT IT WAS PRETTY MUCH UNAVOIDABLE TO EXTEND ANOTHER
24 HOURS AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT FLOOD ISSUES COULD STILL OCCUR...AT
LEAST ON A LOCALIZED BASIS BUT OF COURSE NOT WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WATCH AREA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ANOTHER OPTION WAS TO TACK MORE
COUNTIES ONTO THE EXISTING WATCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WITHIN THE WESTERN CWA (AT LEAST SO FAR) HAS NOT BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY OBSERVED ROUGHLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...WOULD RATHER LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL. AT
ANY RATE...AT LEAST THE EXISTING WATCH COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY YORK)
ARE THE ONES THAT LIKELY FEATURE THE OVERALL MOST SATURATED
GROUND BASED ON RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY NIGHT.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0930Z/430 AM...A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE A SLOWLY BUT
STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESS OUT OF THE WESTERN CWA INTO THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES...WHILE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN LEFT HIGH AND DRY THUS FAR. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE BIG PICTURE STILL FEATURES ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WELL OUT AHEAD OF A PARENT CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT AT 500 MILLIBARS CHURNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS UT. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LOW...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
ARE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LARGELY TIED TO THE LEADING EDGES OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER
AREA...ALONG WITH HELP FROM A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 850
MILLIBARS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
EVIDENT ON THE 310K SURFACE. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY ONLY
500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY TALL/NARROW CAPE PROFILES
IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE
SURFACE...APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES GENERALLY EASTERLY
BREEZES OF 56-10 MPH PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN EAST-WEST
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOOSELY DRAPED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN
KS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 65-70
RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD INITIALLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERIC MENTION OF NON-DENSE PATCHY FOG UNTIL SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE
WITHIN NORTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE DROPPED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ON THE NEXT
UPDATE AS CONVECTION MOVES IN AND STIRS OUT ANY LIGHT FOG THAT
MIGHT EXIST. OTHERWISE...IN THE BIG PICTURE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE MAIN LOW TO THE WEST REACHES
THE NORTHWEST CO AREA BY SUNSET. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...HAVE
RELIED MORE HEAVILY THAN USUAL ON THE HIGHER-RES SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OF MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND NSSL
4KM WRF FOR HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TODAY. VERY GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST
RANDOM SPOTTY RE-DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
TODAY...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST 40-50 POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING. BY
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE NEXT ISSUE BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...WITH THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED-
LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF UP TO AROUND 35KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CERTAINLY WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...BUT AM CURRENTLY QUESTIONING JUST HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION MIGHT REALLY TAKE PLACE. CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH
WITH THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE DOUBTS THAT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNLESS SOMETHING TRACKS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY NEAR/WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. OBVIOUSLY DAY SHIFT WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHETHER THIS IS MORE OF A LIMITED OR POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE
ROBUST THREAT AS MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN
TOOK A FAIRLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STAB USING A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH ACTUALLY WORKED REASONABLY WELL FOR YESTERDAY.
THIS YIELDS A RANGE FROM MID 70S NORTH...80S NEAR THE STATE LINE
AND NEAR 90 FAR SOUTH.

TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...DECENT/INCREASING LARGE
SCALE FORCING CONTINUES AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FROM
TODAY GRADUALLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST...WHILE THE MAIN LOW OVER CO
EDGES EVER-CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE NOSE OF THIS
JET APPEARS TO AIM INCREASINGLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT GOES. VERY GENERALLY THEN...AND AGAIN LEANING ON SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
EARLY ON...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE
AND/OR DEPARTS MORE TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANY LOCATION
SEEING A PASSING SHOWER/STORM AT ANY POINT IN THE NIGHT...SO KEPT
AT LEAST 50 POPS ALL AREAS. HAVE LITTLE DOUBT THAT SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS EARLY TODAY...BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE SITUATION JUST DOES NOT SEEM OMINOUS
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO JUSTIFY AN EXPANSION OF THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 64-68.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN
GOOD LIFT/WAA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE GFS/12Z ECMWF CLOSE OFF THE
CIRCULATION ON THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM/00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND KEEP THE SYSTEM AS AN UPPER WAVE. THE DEEPER SLOWER
TROUGH SOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS LONGER ACROSS OUR REGION
THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN TROUGH SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

WITH THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN FOR OUR
REGION.  INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE UNDER 30KTS...SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE HIT OR MISS.  HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AN INCH
AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES AND CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SATURATING/SATURATED GROUND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THE LATEST WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT W/E BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH. THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE OUTER PERIOD THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE
EXTENDED INIT ATTM WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING AROUND THE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING 24 HOURS CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY CEILING/VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING...AN INITIAL
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY DEPARTING
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A TEMPO GROUP FOR STEADIER
RAIN AT KGRI FOR THE FIRST 2 HOURS. AT KEAR ALREADY...AND LATER
THIS MORNING AT KGRI...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE LIKELY RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE
AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
NEXT BATCH OF STEADIER RAIN IS LIKELY BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PINPOINT ANY LOW-CONFIDENCE
TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUPS...BUT INSTEAD STICK WITH A BASIC
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SOME STORMS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ONGOING PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY MIXED OUT ANY POTENTIAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THAT WERE
PRESENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED ANY SUB-VFR
CEILING FROM THE LATEST FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY NO
GUARANTEE THAT LOW CEILINGS WONT AT LEAST BRIEFLY REDEVELOP AT
SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...OUTSIDE OF
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THEY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AROUND 10KT OR LESS. IN CLOSING...STAY
TUNED FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
CEILING TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 270959
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS...WE ARE STARING AT ANOTHER
CHALLENGING 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF LOCATION/TIMING OF THE BEST
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND OF COURSE THE ASSOCIATED ISSUES OF
WHETHER OR NOT FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING COULD MATERIALIZE AT SOME
POINT...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD
FEATURE A BIT GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE CONDITIONALLY TIED TO WHETHER
ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN MANAGE TO TAKE PLACE IN THE
WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. SO MANY QUESTION
MARKS...

BEFORE GOING ANY FARTHER...WANT TO COVER REASONING BEHIND THE
24-HOUR EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA...WHICH NOW RUNS THROUGH
15Z/10AM THURSDAY. THERE WERE A FEW OPTIONS HERE. ONE OF THESE
OPTIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN TO CANCEL THE HEADLINE BASED ON LACK OF
APPRECIABLE RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING...WHILE
ANOTHER OPTION WOULD HAVE BEEN TO SIMPLY LET IT RIDE AS ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
OPTIONS APPEARED FAVORABLE AS THE FORMER MIGHT GIVE THE IMPRESSION
THAT ANY THREAT OF FLOODING IS ALREADY OVER FOR THE WEEK BEFORE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN EVEN FALLS...WHILE THE LATTER WOULD HAVE MADE
IT APPEAR THAT THE "MAIN EVENT" MIGHT BE OVER BY MID-MORNING
TODAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING WELL BEYOND THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY...FELT IT WAS PRETTY MUCH UNAVOIDABLE TO EXTEND ANOTHER
24 HOURS AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT FLOOD ISSUES COULD STILL OCCUR...AT
LEAST ON A LOCALIZED BASIS BUT OF COURSE NOT WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WATCH AREA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ANOTHER OPTION WAS TO TACK MORE
COUNTIES ONTO THE EXISTING WATCH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WITHIN THE WESTERN CWA (AT LEAST SO FAR) HAS NOT BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THAT MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY OBSERVED ROUGHLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...WOULD RATHER LET THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL. AT
ANY RATE...AT LEAST THE EXISTING WATCH COUNTIES (ESPECIALLY YORK)
ARE THE ONES THAT LIKELY FEATURE THE OVERALL MOST SATURATED
GROUND BASED ON RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY NIGHT.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0930Z/430 AM...A FAIRLY
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE A SLOWLY BUT
STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESS OUT OF THE WESTERN CWA INTO THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES...WHILE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN LEFT HIGH AND DRY THUS FAR. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE BIG PICTURE STILL FEATURES ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WELL OUT AHEAD OF A PARENT CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT AT 500 MILLIBARS CHURNING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS UT. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LOW...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES
ARE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LARGELY TIED TO THE LEADING EDGES OF ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER
AREA...ALONG WITH HELP FROM A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 850
MILLIBARS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
EVIDENT ON THE 310K SURFACE. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY OVERNIGHT HAS
BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY ONLY
500-1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY TALL/NARROW CAPE PROFILES
IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE
SURFACE...APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES GENERALLY EASTERLY
BREEZES OF 56-10 MPH PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN EAST-WEST
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOOSELY DRAPED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN
KS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 65-70
RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD INITIALLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERIC MENTION OF NON-DENSE PATCHY FOG UNTIL SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE
WITHIN NORTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS MAY BE DROPPED AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ON THE NEXT
UPDATE AS CONVECTION MOVES IN AND STIRS OUT ANY LIGHT FOG THAT
MIGHT EXIST. OTHERWISE...IN THE BIG PICTURE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE MAIN LOW TO THE WEST REACHES
THE NORTHWEST CO AREA BY SUNSET. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...HAVE
RELIED MORE HEAVILY THAN USUAL ON THE HIGHER-RES SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OF MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM AND NSSL
4KM WRF FOR HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TODAY. VERY GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST
RANDOM SPOTTY RE-DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
TODAY...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST 40-50 POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING. BY
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE NEXT ISSUE BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...WITH THE 06Z NAM SUGGESTING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED-
LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF UP TO AROUND 35KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CERTAINLY WITH BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...BUT AM CURRENTLY QUESTIONING JUST HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION MIGHT REALLY TAKE PLACE. CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH
WITH THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE DOUBTS THAT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNLESS SOMETHING TRACKS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY NEAR/WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. OBVIOUSLY DAY SHIFT WILL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
WHETHER THIS IS MORE OF A LIMITED OR POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE
ROBUST THREAT AS MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. TEMP-WISE...AGAIN
TOOK A FAIRLY LOW-CONFIDENCE STAB USING A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH ACTUALLY WORKED REASONABLY WELL FOR YESTERDAY.
THIS YIELDS A RANGE FROM MID 70S NORTH...80S NEAR THE STATE LINE
AND NEAR 90 FAR SOUTH.

TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...DECENT/INCREASING LARGE
SCALE FORCING CONTINUES AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FROM
TODAY GRADUALLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST...WHILE THE MAIN LOW OVER CO
EDGES EVER-CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH THE NOSE OF THIS
JET APPEARS TO AIM INCREASINGLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT GOES. VERY GENERALLY THEN...AND AGAIN LEANING ON SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
EARLY ON...BEFORE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE
AND/OR DEPARTS MORE TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANY LOCATION
SEEING A PASSING SHOWER/STORM AT ANY POINT IN THE NIGHT...SO KEPT
AT LEAST 50 POPS ALL AREAS. HAVE LITTLE DOUBT THAT SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS EARLY TODAY...BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE SITUATION JUST DOES NOT SEEM OMINOUS
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO JUSTIFY AN EXPANSION OF THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW
TEMPS...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 64-68.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE ONGOING TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN
GOOD LIFT/WAA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE GFS/12Z ECMWF CLOSE OFF THE
CIRCULATION ON THURSDAY...WHEREAS THE NAM/00Z ECMWF ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND KEEP THE SYSTEM AS AN UPPER WAVE. THE DEEPER SLOWER
TROUGH SOLUTION WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS LONGER ACROSS OUR REGION
THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN TROUGH SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

WITH THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN FOR OUR
REGION.  INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE UNDER 30KTS...SO WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE HIT OR MISS.  HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AN INCH
AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES AND CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SATURATING/SATURATED GROUND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THE LATEST WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT W/E BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH. THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE OUTER PERIOD THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND DID NOT DEVIATE FM THE
EXTENDED INIT ATTM WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING AROUND THE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING 24 HOURS AWAITS FORECAST-WISE...WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN NOT ONLY CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS...BUT ALSO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IN THE MOST BASIC SENSE...THE BIGGEST
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WAS DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS...AND CEILING TRENDS WERE MADE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH AT LEAST PATCHY IFR CEILING AND MVFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG ALREADY SHOWING THEIR HAND ACROSS THE
AREA OUT OF THE GATE. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG
THESE LOWER CEILING/VISIBILITY MIGHT LAST INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FROM 16Z ONWARD. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE
OUT ACTIVITY AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST FEW
HOURS...AND THUS HAVE A LONG-FUSE MENTION OF A GENERIC VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS). IN THE SHORTER TERM...MAINTAINED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR STEADIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BUT DELAYED
THIS UNTIL THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...OUTSIDE
OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THEY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISSUE WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY REMAINING SOME COMPONENT OF
EASTERLY AND SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AROUND 10KT OR LESS. IN
CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OF VARIOUS
ELEMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 270627
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES (NAMELY FURNAS COUNTY AREA)...THE LATEST MODELS INCLUDING
HIGHER-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS MORE
OF THE CWA...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF CO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS EVIDENT
ON THE 310K SURFACE. AS A RESULT...HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHEST 60-70
PERCENT LIKELY POPS UNTIL AFTER 09Z/4AM FOR MOST AREAS...AND
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IF THINGS DELAY FURTHER.

AS FOR THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 15Z/10AM
THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES MADE YET...BUT AM STRONGLY LEANING
TOWARD EXTENDING THIS HEADLINE FARTHER OUT IN TIME AS THE REALITY
IS THAT MOST RAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
THE SUBSEQUENT 24-36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE CURRENT EXPIRATION
TIME...WITH POTENTIALLY NOT MUCH HAPPENING BEFORE THAT TIME. NO
PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXPAND THE WATCH AREA IN AREA...BUT THAT MAY
BE CONSIDERED ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE. AS FOR STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME STORMS...FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
TALLER/NARROWER CAPE PROFILES WOULD SEEMINGLY MAKE ANY OVERNIGHT
SEVERE STORMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ADDED A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA CWA GIVEN LACK OF RAIN
THUS FAR IN MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED UP. NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT EASTERLY
BREEZES SHOULD AT LEAST AVERAGE 5-8 MPH...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS.

STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS WITH THE MAIN MORNING DISCUSSION
ISSUED CLOSER TO 430 AM...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HEADLINE AT THE BOTTOM WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING 24 HOURS AWAITS FORECAST-WISE...WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN NOT ONLY CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS...BUT ALSO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IN THE MOST BASIC SENSE...THE BIGGEST
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WAS DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS...AND CEILING TRENDS WERE MADE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH AT LEAST PATCHY IFR CEILING AND MVFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG ALREADY SHOWING THEIR HAND ACROSS THE
AREA OUT OF THE GATE. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG
THESE LOWER CEILING/VISIBILITY MIGHT LAST INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FROM 16Z ONWARD. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE
OUT ACTIVITY AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST FEW
HOURS...AND THUS HAVE A LONG-FUSE MENTION OF A GENERIC VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS). IN THE SHORTER TERM...MAINTAINED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR STEADIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BUT DELAYED
THIS UNTIL THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...OUTSIDE
OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THEY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISSUE WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY REMAINING SOME COMPONENT OF
EASTERLY AND SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AROUND 10KT OR LESS. IN
CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OF VARIOUS
ELEMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 270627
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES (NAMELY FURNAS COUNTY AREA)...THE LATEST MODELS INCLUDING
HIGHER-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS MORE
OF THE CWA...AS THE LEADING EDGES OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF CO AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS EVIDENT
ON THE 310K SURFACE. AS A RESULT...HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHEST 60-70
PERCENT LIKELY POPS UNTIL AFTER 09Z/4AM FOR MOST AREAS...AND
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IF THINGS DELAY FURTHER.

AS FOR THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 15Z/10AM
THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES MADE YET...BUT AM STRONGLY LEANING
TOWARD EXTENDING THIS HEADLINE FARTHER OUT IN TIME AS THE REALITY
IS THAT MOST RAIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN
THE SUBSEQUENT 24-36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE CURRENT EXPIRATION
TIME...WITH POTENTIALLY NOT MUCH HAPPENING BEFORE THAT TIME. NO
PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXPAND THE WATCH AREA IN AREA...BUT THAT MAY
BE CONSIDERED ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE. AS FOR STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME STORMS...FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
TALLER/NARROWER CAPE PROFILES WOULD SEEMINGLY MAKE ANY OVERNIGHT
SEVERE STORMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...ADDED A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA CWA GIVEN LACK OF RAIN
THUS FAR IN MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED UP. NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT EASTERLY
BREEZES SHOULD AT LEAST AVERAGE 5-8 MPH...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS.

STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS WITH THE MAIN MORNING DISCUSSION
ISSUED CLOSER TO 430 AM...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HEADLINE AT THE BOTTOM WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING 24 HOURS AWAITS FORECAST-WISE...WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN NOT ONLY CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS...BUT ALSO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IN THE MOST BASIC SENSE...THE BIGGEST
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WAS DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS...AND CEILING TRENDS WERE MADE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH AT LEAST PATCHY IFR CEILING AND MVFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG ALREADY SHOWING THEIR HAND ACROSS THE
AREA OUT OF THE GATE. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG
THESE LOWER CEILING/VISIBILITY MIGHT LAST INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FROM 16Z ONWARD. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE
OUT ACTIVITY AT ANY POINT DURING THE PERIOD BEYOND THE FIRST FEW
HOURS...AND THUS HAVE A LONG-FUSE MENTION OF A GENERIC VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS). IN THE SHORTER TERM...MAINTAINED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR STEADIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BUT DELAYED
THIS UNTIL THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...OUTSIDE
OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THEY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISSUE WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY REMAINING SOME COMPONENT OF
EASTERLY AND SPEEDS LARGELY AVERAGING AROUND 10KT OR LESS. IN
CLOSING...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OF VARIOUS
ELEMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 262359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HEADLINE AT THE BOTTOM WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS FORECAST MODELS DEVELOPING PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE
TIME BEING...INCLUDED ONLY A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS LIKELY NECESSARY ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
SOME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH VCTS ACTIVITY PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM OF
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 262359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HEADLINE AT THE BOTTOM WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS FORECAST MODELS DEVELOPING PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE
TIME BEING...INCLUDED ONLY A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS LIKELY NECESSARY ONCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
SOME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH VCTS ACTIVITY PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM OF
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 262111
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HEADLINE AT THE BOTTOM WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
BACK UP AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-075-076.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 262105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
BACK UP AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 262105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL CENTER AROUND YET
ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING OR ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HARD PART IS IDENTIFYING WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SREF HIGHLIGHT AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER
CITY TO GENEVA AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GOING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THAT AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL. THE SOIL IS SATURATED IN AREAS
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN A NIGHT OR TWO OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY THIS
WEEK AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED
GROUND. YORK AND HAMILTON COUNTY WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IF THEY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA COULD SEE RAIN OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE START OF
THE PERIOD SHOWS MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS BROAD
RIDGING SITS OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING IT WAY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SET UP OVER ERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED S/SERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A WARM FRONT/SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS NW/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. INCREASED LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG AN INCREASED LLJ WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
/UNLESS MODELS TREND DIFFERENTLY WITH THE LOCATION/.  BEST POPS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING POPS INTO THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT
THOSE WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REST
OF THE DAY ENDING UP DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO FINALLY
SHOW THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN
KICKING OUT THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...BRINGING US THE RECENT ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN MODELS
IS NOT TOO BAD...IF IT REMAINS SIMILAR OVER THE COMING DAYS...SHOWS
IT STILL JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING...SET UP
OVER ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVING
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF TO AN END BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IN THE HWO. SOME VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE COMBO REMAINS AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...CERTAINLY CANT RULE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS OUT.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR SAT/SUN...AS THE AREA SITS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...MAINLY SAT...BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS
ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
OVER AND MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA RESULTS IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES NOT CALLING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SWINGS EITHER
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
BACK UP AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 261816
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES MUCH THE
SAME AS THE PAST 24...AS THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS OF THE SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO...AS LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIKELY UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP.
ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL LIKELY
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN RAIN AXIS
SETS UP THIS TIME AROUND. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
COULD BE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWATH ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA.

STARTING OFF HERE AT 09Z/4AM...THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A
BIT FROM THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT ONGOING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN
BETWEEN VOID OF PRECIP AT LEAST FOR NOW. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ADAMS/HALL
COUNTY AREAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREAS. WHILE
RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED GROUND TRUTH SUGGEST THAT MANY OF
THESE AFFECTED AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH
RANGE...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT WAS IN YORK
COUNTY...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION DUMPED AN AREA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME...CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF
YORK ITSELF. ALTHOUGH MAINLY URBAN/STREET FLASH FLOODING SITUATION
HAS SINCE ABATED...A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH 845 AM AS RUNOFF CONTINUES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NV AREA...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD
RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA LIES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY-MASKED WEST-EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS...WITH PREVAILING BREEZES
LOCALLY GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
MPH OR LESS. LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 60-64 RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOURLY TRENDS...BUT AM GENERALLY
EXPECTING ONGOING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH A DECENT MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY
EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBTLE FORCING
OVER THE AREA FROM PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES...THAT
ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO STRIP POPS COMPLETELY...AND OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CWA...HELD ONTO AT
LEAST A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF 30-60 POPS FOCUSED PRIOR TO
15Z/10AM. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CORES POTENTIALLY YIELDING
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO TODAY...ODDS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANY SEVERE STORM RISK WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE CWA SPENDS MUCH OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING IN BETWEEN LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES...BEFORE
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOCAL AREA OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR LOW
TRACKING ACROSS UTAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET WILL TAKE PLACE...LEADING TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MUCH LIKE THIS PAST
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR...HAVE GEARED THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFFERED BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND
4KM-NSSL WRF. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRE-SUNSET CONVECTION FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE HOTTER/MORE
DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AS A RESULT...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COULD SEE SOME PULSY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION FLARE UP IN OR NEAR OUR KS ZONES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 20KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THEN LATER IN THE EVENING...LARGELY AFTER NIGHTFALL...THE
EJECTING WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT PROBABLY
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH IN NEB AND LESS SO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EVEN AFTER DARK...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z/1AM. AS FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL...WON/T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY PONDERED
WHETHER SOME VARIETY OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ESSENTIALLY ONLY ONE COUNTY (YORK) RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT 3+ INCH RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS ROUND...FEEL THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD/MAJOR ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT JUST NOT THINKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT HEADLINES. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
THOUGH...THE STAGE COULD CERTAINLY BE SET FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER
FLOODING CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME DESCRIBED
BELOW.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS TODAY IS
AGAIN BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE DAY...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SEE AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KS STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH CLOSER TO THE NEB BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE NET RESULT IS A SEASONABLY SHARP 15+ DEGREE FORECAST HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...TO THE
80S ALONG/NEAR THE STATE LINE...TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 90S
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BOTTOM ROW OF NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS TONIGHT...AIMING MOST AREAS INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES LATE THURSDAY THRU LATE FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS A QUICKER
WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN OTHER MODELS AND FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST..ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE CONVECTION EACH DAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES THRU
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THRU THE WORKWEEK
AND AS THE GROUND SATURATES...AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  DEPENDING ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LABOR DAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
BACK UP AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY





000
FXUS63 KGID 261816
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 PM THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES MUCH THE
SAME AS THE PAST 24...AS THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS OF THE SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO...AS LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIKELY UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP.
ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL LIKELY
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN RAIN AXIS
SETS UP THIS TIME AROUND. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
COULD BE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWATH ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA.

STARTING OFF HERE AT 09Z/4AM...THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A
BIT FROM THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT ONGOING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN
BETWEEN VOID OF PRECIP AT LEAST FOR NOW. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ADAMS/HALL
COUNTY AREAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREAS. WHILE
RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED GROUND TRUTH SUGGEST THAT MANY OF
THESE AFFECTED AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH
RANGE...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT WAS IN YORK
COUNTY...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION DUMPED AN AREA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME...CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF
YORK ITSELF. ALTHOUGH MAINLY URBAN/STREET FLASH FLOODING SITUATION
HAS SINCE ABATED...A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH 845 AM AS RUNOFF CONTINUES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NV AREA...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD
RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA LIES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY-MASKED WEST-EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS...WITH PREVAILING BREEZES
LOCALLY GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
MPH OR LESS. LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 60-64 RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOURLY TRENDS...BUT AM GENERALLY
EXPECTING ONGOING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH A DECENT MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY
EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBTLE FORCING
OVER THE AREA FROM PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES...THAT
ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO STRIP POPS COMPLETELY...AND OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CWA...HELD ONTO AT
LEAST A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF 30-60 POPS FOCUSED PRIOR TO
15Z/10AM. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CORES POTENTIALLY YIELDING
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO TODAY...ODDS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANY SEVERE STORM RISK WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE CWA SPENDS MUCH OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING IN BETWEEN LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES...BEFORE
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOCAL AREA OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR LOW
TRACKING ACROSS UTAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET WILL TAKE PLACE...LEADING TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MUCH LIKE THIS PAST
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR...HAVE GEARED THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFFERED BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND
4KM-NSSL WRF. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRE-SUNSET CONVECTION FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE HOTTER/MORE
DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AS A RESULT...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COULD SEE SOME PULSY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION FLARE UP IN OR NEAR OUR KS ZONES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 20KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THEN LATER IN THE EVENING...LARGELY AFTER NIGHTFALL...THE
EJECTING WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT PROBABLY
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH IN NEB AND LESS SO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EVEN AFTER DARK...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z/1AM. AS FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL...WON/T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY PONDERED
WHETHER SOME VARIETY OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ESSENTIALLY ONLY ONE COUNTY (YORK) RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT 3+ INCH RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS ROUND...FEEL THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD/MAJOR ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT JUST NOT THINKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT HEADLINES. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
THOUGH...THE STAGE COULD CERTAINLY BE SET FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER
FLOODING CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME DESCRIBED
BELOW.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS TODAY IS
AGAIN BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE DAY...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SEE AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KS STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH CLOSER TO THE NEB BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE NET RESULT IS A SEASONABLY SHARP 15+ DEGREE FORECAST HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...TO THE
80S ALONG/NEAR THE STATE LINE...TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 90S
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BOTTOM ROW OF NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS TONIGHT...AIMING MOST AREAS INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES LATE THURSDAY THRU LATE FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS A QUICKER
WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN OTHER MODELS AND FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST..ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE CONVECTION EACH DAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES THRU
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THRU THE WORKWEEK
AND AS THE GROUND SATURATES...AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  DEPENDING ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LABOR DAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
BACK UP AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 261204
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
704 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES MUCH THE
SAME AS THE PAST 24...AS THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS OF THE SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO...AS LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIKELY UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP.
ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL LIKELY
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN RAIN AXIS
SETS UP THIS TIME AROUND. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
COULD BE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWATH ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA.

STARTING OFF HERE AT 09Z/4AM...THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A
BIT FROM THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT ONGOING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN
BETWEEN VOID OF PRECIP AT LEAST FOR NOW. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ADAMS/HALL
COUNTY AREAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREAS. WHILE
RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED GROUND TRUTH SUGGEST THAT MANY OF
THESE AFFECTED AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH
RANGE...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT WAS IN YORK
COUNTY...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION DUMPED AN AREA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME...CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF
YORK ITSELF. ALTHOUGH MAINLY URBAN/STREET FLASH FLOODING SITUATION
HAS SINCE ABATED...A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH 845 AM AS RUNOFF CONTINUES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NV AREA...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD
RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA LIES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY-MASKED WEST-EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS...WITH PREVAILING BREEZES
LOCALLY GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
MPH OR LESS. LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 60-64 RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOURLY TRENDS...BUT AM GENERALLY
EXPECTING ONGOING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH A DECENT MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY
EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBTLE FORCING
OVER THE AREA FROM PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES...THAT
ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO STRIP POPS COMPLETELY...AND OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CWA...HELD ONTO AT
LEAST A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF 30-60 POPS FOCUSED PRIOR TO
15Z/10AM. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CORES POTENTIALLY YIELDING
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO TODAY...ODDS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANY SEVERE STORM RISK WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE CWA SPENDS MUCH OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING IN BETWEEN LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES...BEFORE
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOCAL AREA OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR LOW
TRACKING ACROSS UTAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET WILL TAKE PLACE...LEADING TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MUCH LIKE THIS PAST
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR...HAVE GEARED THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFFERED BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND
4KM-NSSL WRF. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRE-SUNSET CONVECTION FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE HOTTER/MORE
DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AS A RESULT...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COULD SEE SOME PULSY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION FLARE UP IN OR NEAR OUR KS ZONES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 20KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THEN LATER IN THE EVENING...LARGELY AFTER NIGHTFALL...THE
EJECTING WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT PROBABLY
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH IN NEB AND LESS SO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EVEN AFTER DARK...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z/1AM. AS FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL...WON/T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY PONDERED
WHETHER SOME VARIETY OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ESSENTIALLY ONLY ONE COUNTY (YORK) RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT 3+ INCH RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS ROUND...FEEL THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD/MAJOR ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT JUST NOT THINKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT HEADLINES. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
THOUGH...THE STAGE COULD CERTAINLY BE SET FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER
FLOODING CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME DESCRIBED
BELOW.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS TODAY IS
AGAIN BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE DAY...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SEE AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KS STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH CLOSER TO THE NEB BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE NET RESULT IS A SEASONABLY SHARP 15+ DEGREE FORECAST HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...TO THE
80S ALONG/NEAR THE STATE LINE...TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 90S
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BOTTOM ROW OF NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS TONIGHT...AIMING MOST AREAS INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES LATE THURSDAY THRU LATE FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS A QUICKER
WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN OTHER MODELS AND FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST..ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE CONVECTION EACH DAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES THRU
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THRU THE WORKWEEK
AND AS THE GROUND SATURATES...AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  DEPENDING ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LABOR DAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO CEILING TRENDS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THE THINKING THAT ANY MVFR CEILING TODAY WOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AND CONFINED TO THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THERE
IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD IN FACT BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CEILING IN THE CARDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THIS SCENARIO BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. OTHERWISE...THERE
ARE AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE PERIOD...ONE MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS NOT OVERLY WIDESPREAD...AND THAT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT EVENT IS STILL A
BIT SHAKY GIVEN IT IS BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS...HAVE SIMPLY GONE
WITH A GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION TO COVER THE
CHANCES...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO PINPOINT ANY
POTENTIAL PREVAILING/TEMPO GROUPS. IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER THAT
SOME STORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL FROM SOME SORT OF EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS LARGELY UNDER 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 261204
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
704 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES MUCH THE
SAME AS THE PAST 24...AS THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS OF THE SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO...AS LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIKELY UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP.
ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL LIKELY
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN RAIN AXIS
SETS UP THIS TIME AROUND. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
COULD BE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWATH ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA.

STARTING OFF HERE AT 09Z/4AM...THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A
BIT FROM THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT ONGOING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN
BETWEEN VOID OF PRECIP AT LEAST FOR NOW. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ADAMS/HALL
COUNTY AREAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREAS. WHILE
RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED GROUND TRUTH SUGGEST THAT MANY OF
THESE AFFECTED AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH
RANGE...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT WAS IN YORK
COUNTY...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION DUMPED AN AREA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME...CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF
YORK ITSELF. ALTHOUGH MAINLY URBAN/STREET FLASH FLOODING SITUATION
HAS SINCE ABATED...A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH 845 AM AS RUNOFF CONTINUES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NV AREA...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD
RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA LIES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY-MASKED WEST-EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS...WITH PREVAILING BREEZES
LOCALLY GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
MPH OR LESS. LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 60-64 RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOURLY TRENDS...BUT AM GENERALLY
EXPECTING ONGOING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH A DECENT MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY
EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBTLE FORCING
OVER THE AREA FROM PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES...THAT
ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO STRIP POPS COMPLETELY...AND OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CWA...HELD ONTO AT
LEAST A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF 30-60 POPS FOCUSED PRIOR TO
15Z/10AM. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CORES POTENTIALLY YIELDING
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO TODAY...ODDS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANY SEVERE STORM RISK WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE CWA SPENDS MUCH OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING IN BETWEEN LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES...BEFORE
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOCAL AREA OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR LOW
TRACKING ACROSS UTAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET WILL TAKE PLACE...LEADING TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MUCH LIKE THIS PAST
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR...HAVE GEARED THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFFERED BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND
4KM-NSSL WRF. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRE-SUNSET CONVECTION FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE HOTTER/MORE
DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AS A RESULT...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COULD SEE SOME PULSY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION FLARE UP IN OR NEAR OUR KS ZONES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 20KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THEN LATER IN THE EVENING...LARGELY AFTER NIGHTFALL...THE
EJECTING WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT PROBABLY
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH IN NEB AND LESS SO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EVEN AFTER DARK...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z/1AM. AS FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL...WON/T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY PONDERED
WHETHER SOME VARIETY OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ESSENTIALLY ONLY ONE COUNTY (YORK) RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT 3+ INCH RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS ROUND...FEEL THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD/MAJOR ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT JUST NOT THINKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT HEADLINES. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
THOUGH...THE STAGE COULD CERTAINLY BE SET FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER
FLOODING CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME DESCRIBED
BELOW.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS TODAY IS
AGAIN BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE DAY...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SEE AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KS STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH CLOSER TO THE NEB BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE NET RESULT IS A SEASONABLY SHARP 15+ DEGREE FORECAST HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...TO THE
80S ALONG/NEAR THE STATE LINE...TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 90S
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BOTTOM ROW OF NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS TONIGHT...AIMING MOST AREAS INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES LATE THURSDAY THRU LATE FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS A QUICKER
WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN OTHER MODELS AND FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST..ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE CONVECTION EACH DAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES THRU
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THRU THE WORKWEEK
AND AS THE GROUND SATURATES...AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  DEPENDING ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LABOR DAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO CEILING TRENDS. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
THE THINKING THAT ANY MVFR CEILING TODAY WOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AND CONFINED TO THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THERE
IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD IN FACT BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CEILING IN THE CARDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THIS SCENARIO BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. OTHERWISE...THERE
ARE AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE PERIOD...ONE MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS NOT OVERLY WIDESPREAD...AND THAT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT EVENT IS STILL A
BIT SHAKY GIVEN IT IS BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS...HAVE SIMPLY GONE
WITH A GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION TO COVER THE
CHANCES...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO PINPOINT ANY
POTENTIAL PREVAILING/TEMPO GROUPS. IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER THAT
SOME STORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL FROM SOME SORT OF EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS LARGELY UNDER 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 260955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES MUCH THE
SAME AS THE PAST 24...AS THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS OF THE SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO...AS LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIKELY UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP.
ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL LIKELY
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN RAIN AXIS
SETS UP THIS TIME AROUND. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
COULD BE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWATH ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA.

STARTING OFF HERE AT 09Z/4AM...THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A
BIT FROM THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT ONGOING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN
BETWEEN VOID OF PRECIP AT LEAST FOR NOW. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ADAMS/HALL
COUNTY AREAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREAS. WHILE
RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED GROUND TRUTH SUGGEST THAT MANY OF
THESE AFFECTED AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH
RANGE...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT WAS IN YORK
COUNTY...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION DUMPED AN AREA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME...CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF
YORK ITSELF. ALTHOUGH MAINLY URBAN/STREET FLASH FLOODING SITUATION
HAS SINCE ABATED...A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH 845 AM AS RUNOFF CONTINUES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NV AREA...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD
RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA LIES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY-MASKED WEST-EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS...WITH PREVAILING BREEZES
LOCALLY GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
MPH OR LESS. LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 60-64 RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOURLY TRENDS...BUT AM GENERALLY
EXPECTING ONGOING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH A DECENT MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY
EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBTLE FORCING
OVER THE AREA FROM PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES...THAT
ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO STRIP POPS COMPLETELY...AND OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CWA...HELD ONTO AT
LEAST A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF 30-60 POPS FOCUSED PRIOR TO
15Z/10AM. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CORES POTENTIALLY YIELDING
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO TODAY...ODDS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANY SEVERE STORM RISK WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE CWA SPENDS MUCH OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING IN BETWEEN LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES...BEFORE
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOCAL AREA OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR LOW
TRACKING ACROSS UTAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET WILL TAKE PLACE...LEADING TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MUCH LIKE THIS PAST
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR...HAVE GEARED THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFFERED BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND
4KM-NSSL WRF. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRE-SUNSET CONVECTION FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE HOTTER/MORE
DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AS A RESULT...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COULD SEE SOME PULSY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION FLARE UP IN OR NEAR OUR KS ZONES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 20KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THEN LATER IN THE EVENING...LARGELY AFTER NIGHTFALL...THE
EJECTING WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT PROBABLY
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH IN NEB AND LESS SO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EVEN AFTER DARK...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z/1AM. AS FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL...WON/T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY PONDERED
WHETHER SOME VARIETY OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ESSENTIALLY ONLY ONE COUNTY (YORK) RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT 3+ INCH RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS ROUND...FEEL THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD/MAJOR ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT JUST NOT THINKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT HEADLINES. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
THOUGH...THE STAGE COULD CERTAINLY BE SET FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER
FLOODING CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME DESCRIBED
BELOW.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS TODAY IS
AGAIN BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE DAY...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SEE AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KS STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH CLOSER TO THE NEB BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE NET RESULT IS A SEASONABLY SHARP 15+ DEGREE FORECAST HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...TO THE
80S ALONG/NEAR THE STATE LINE...TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 90S
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BOTTOM ROW OF NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS TONIGHT...AIMING MOST AREAS INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES LATE THURSDAY THRU LATE FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS A QUICKER
WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN OTHER MODELS AND FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST..ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE CONVECTION EACH DAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES THRU
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THRU THE WORKWEEK
AND AS THE GROUND SATURATES...AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  DEPENDING ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LABOR DAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILING/AND OR VISIBILITY COULD ALSO TRANSPIRE. CERTAINLY
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS...SO AMENDMENTS IN
BETWEEN ROUTINE ISSUANCES ARE LIKELY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT BOTH SITES...BUT AM CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KGRI RIGHT OFF THE BAT EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KEAR...TIMING OF ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS
CERTAIN SO WILL CONTINUE GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS)
MENTION FOR NOW AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR A MORE CONFIDENT
TIMING OF STEADIER RAIN. OTHERWISE...GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO FADE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING...RESULTING IN A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
TUESDAY EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS THERE
AND THUS HAVE BROUGHT BACK IN A VCTS MENTION STARTING AT 03Z.
APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES...SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SOME SORT OF EASTERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 260955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES MUCH THE
SAME AS THE PAST 24...AS THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS OF THE SAME
GENERAL SCENARIO...AS LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIKELY UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET PICKS UP.
ONCE AGAIN...AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL LIKELY
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING EXACTLY WHERE THE MAIN RAIN AXIS
SETS UP THIS TIME AROUND. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
COULD BE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWATH ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AREA.

STARTING OFF HERE AT 09Z/4AM...THINGS HAVE SETTLED DOWN QUITE A
BIT FROM THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT ONGOING AREAS OF
SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN
BETWEEN VOID OF PRECIP AT LEAST FOR NOW. EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ADAMS/HALL
COUNTY AREAS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE YORK/POLK COUNTY AREAS. WHILE
RADAR ESTIMATIONS AND LIMITED GROUND TRUTH SUGGEST THAT MANY OF
THESE AFFECTED AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH
RANGE...BY FAR AND AWAY THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT WAS IN YORK
COUNTY...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION DUMPED AN AREA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME...CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE CITY OF
YORK ITSELF. ALTHOUGH MAINLY URBAN/STREET FLASH FLOODING SITUATION
HAS SINCE ABATED...A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH 845 AM AS RUNOFF CONTINUES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA...AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NV AREA...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD
RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA LIES AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY-MASKED WEST-EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS...WITH PREVAILING BREEZES
LOCALLY GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
MPH OR LESS. LOW TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 60-64 RANGE MOST AREAS.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOURLY TRENDS...BUT AM GENERALLY
EXPECTING ONGOING NON-SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH A DECENT MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY
EXPERIENCING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH SUBTLE FORCING
OVER THE AREA FROM PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES...THAT
ITS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO STRIP POPS COMPLETELY...AND OTHER THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CWA...HELD ONTO AT
LEAST A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF 30-60 POPS FOCUSED PRIOR TO
15Z/10AM. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CORES POTENTIALLY YIELDING
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO TODAY...ODDS ARE
FAIRLY GOOD THAT ANY SEVERE STORM RISK WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/GFS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE CWA SPENDS MUCH OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING IN BETWEEN LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES...BEFORE
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE LOCAL AREA OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR LOW
TRACKING ACROSS UTAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET WILL TAKE PLACE...LEADING TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MUCH LIKE THIS PAST
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
GENERALLY IN THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE.

ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR...HAVE GEARED THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFFERED BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND
4KM-NSSL WRF. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRE-SUNSET CONVECTION FOCUSED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE HOTTER/MORE
DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF IT. AS A RESULT...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COULD SEE SOME PULSY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION FLARE UP IN OR NEAR OUR KS ZONES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT ONLY AROUND 20KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THEN LATER IN THE EVENING...LARGELY AFTER NIGHTFALL...THE
EJECTING WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT PROBABLY
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH IN NEB AND LESS SO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. EVEN AFTER DARK...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z/1AM. AS FOR RAIN
POTENTIAL...WON/T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY PONDERED
WHETHER SOME VARIETY OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ESSENTIALLY ONLY ONE COUNTY (YORK) RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT 3+ INCH RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS ROUND...FEEL THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY GET THROUGH TONIGHT WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD/MAJOR ISSUES. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST ONE OR TWO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT JUST NOT THINKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT HEADLINES. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
THOUGH...THE STAGE COULD CERTAINLY BE SET FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER
FLOODING CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME DESCRIBED
BELOW.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS TODAY IS
AGAIN BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WELL INTO THE DAY...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS SEE AT LEAST A
MODEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KS STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH CLOSER TO THE NEB BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE NET RESULT IS A SEASONABLY SHARP 15+ DEGREE FORECAST HIGH
TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID 70S NORTH OF I-80...TO THE
80S ALONG/NEAR THE STATE LINE...TO THE LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 90S
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BOTTOM ROW OF NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS TONIGHT...AIMING MOST AREAS INTO THE
63-67 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES LATE THURSDAY THRU LATE FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS A QUICKER
WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION THAN OTHER MODELS AND FOLLOWED CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES FOR TIMING. WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST..ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE CONVECTION EACH DAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES THRU
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THRU THE WORKWEEK
AND AS THE GROUND SATURATES...AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  DEPENDING ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING...LABOR DAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILING/AND OR VISIBILITY COULD ALSO TRANSPIRE. CERTAINLY
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS...SO AMENDMENTS IN
BETWEEN ROUTINE ISSUANCES ARE LIKELY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT BOTH SITES...BUT AM CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KGRI RIGHT OFF THE BAT EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KEAR...TIMING OF ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS
CERTAIN SO WILL CONTINUE GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS)
MENTION FOR NOW AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR A MORE CONFIDENT
TIMING OF STEADIER RAIN. OTHERWISE...GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO FADE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING...RESULTING IN A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
TUESDAY EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS THERE
AND THUS HAVE BROUGHT BACK IN A VCTS MENTION STARTING AT 03Z.
APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES...SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SOME SORT OF EASTERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 260602
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
REACHES FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE NERN CONUS....WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OVER THE WRN CONUS. INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LINGERED INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...WITH LITTLE ELSE OTHER
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MONTANA BUILDING IN BEHIND. OVERALL SKY COVER HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE N/NERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND
70 IN NRN AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NC KS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED FROM
THE WRN TROUGH...AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MANY LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL DATA WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF THE BETTER CHANCES...AND TO TRIM BACK SRN PORTIONS A BIT.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NAM/SREF/RAP/HRRR SHOWING
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO COME ACROSS PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASED LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. WILL KEEP
STRONG/SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...CANT RULE IT OUT WITH THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...MAY END UP BEING
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKING TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE THING WANE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT AND THE LLJ DIMINISHES. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE 12-15Z HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING TO AGAIN SEE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING WITH MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...EASTERLY WINDS...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE NORTH
TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
ALLBLEND DID PRESENT 20-30% POPS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT TO HELP PROMOTE
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH PROVIDING
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE...LIKELY ONLY MAXING OUT AT 20-25KTS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILING/AND OR VISIBILITY COULD ALSO TRANSPIRE. CERTAINLY
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS...SO AMENDMENTS IN
BETWEEN ROUTINE ISSUANCES ARE LIKELY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT BOTH SITES...BUT AM CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KGRI RIGHT OFF THE BAT EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KEAR...TIMING OF ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS
CERTAIN SO WILL CONTINUE GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS)
MENTION FOR NOW AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR A MORE CONFIDENT
TIMING OF STEADIER RAIN. OTHERWISE...GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO FADE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING...RESULTING IN A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
TUESDAY EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS THERE
AND THUS HAVE BROUGHT BACK IN A VCTS MENTION STARTING AT 03Z.
APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES...SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SOME SORT OF EASTERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 260602
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
REACHES FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE NERN CONUS....WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OVER THE WRN CONUS. INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LINGERED INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...WITH LITTLE ELSE OTHER
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MONTANA BUILDING IN BEHIND. OVERALL SKY COVER HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE N/NERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND
70 IN NRN AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NC KS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED FROM
THE WRN TROUGH...AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MANY LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL DATA WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF THE BETTER CHANCES...AND TO TRIM BACK SRN PORTIONS A BIT.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NAM/SREF/RAP/HRRR SHOWING
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO COME ACROSS PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASED LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. WILL KEEP
STRONG/SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...CANT RULE IT OUT WITH THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...MAY END UP BEING
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKING TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE THING WANE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT AND THE LLJ DIMINISHES. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE 12-15Z HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING TO AGAIN SEE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING WITH MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...EASTERLY WINDS...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE NORTH
TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
ALLBLEND DID PRESENT 20-30% POPS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT TO HELP PROMOTE
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH PROVIDING
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE...LIKELY ONLY MAXING OUT AT 20-25KTS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS...AND WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILING/AND OR VISIBILITY COULD ALSO TRANSPIRE. CERTAINLY
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS...SO AMENDMENTS IN
BETWEEN ROUTINE ISSUANCES ARE LIKELY. AT LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
CEILING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT BOTH SITES...BUT AM CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KGRI RIGHT OFF THE BAT EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT KEAR...TIMING OF ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS
CERTAIN SO WILL CONTINUE GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS)
MENTION FOR NOW AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR A MORE CONFIDENT
TIMING OF STEADIER RAIN. OTHERWISE...GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO FADE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING...RESULTING IN A LULL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
TUESDAY EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS THERE
AND THUS HAVE BROUGHT BACK IN A VCTS MENTION STARTING AT 03Z.
APART FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES...SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SOME SORT OF EASTERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 260014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
REACHES FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE NERN CONUS....WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OVER THE WRN CONUS. INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LINGERED INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...WITH LITTLE ELSE OTHER
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MONTANA BUILDING IN BEHIND. OVERALL SKY COVER HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE N/NERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND
70 IN NRN AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NC KS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED FROM
THE WRN TROUGH...AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MANY LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL DATA WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF THE BETTER CHANCES...AND TO TRIM BACK SRN PORTIONS A BIT.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NAM/SREF/RAP/HRRR SHOWING
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO COME ACROSS PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASED LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. WILL KEEP
STRONG/SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...CANT RULE IT OUT WITH THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...MAY END UP BEING
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKING TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE THING WANE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT AND THE LLJ DIMINISHES. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE 12-15Z HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING TO AGAIN SEE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING WITH MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...EASTERLY WINDS...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE NORTH
TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
ALLBLEND DID PRESENT 20-30% POPS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT TO HELP PROMOTE
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH PROVIDING
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE...LIKELY ONLY MAXING OUT AT 20-25KTS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING WHEN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT...BUT THESES STORMS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH. STORMS IN COLORADO HAVE ERUPTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IF A PARTICULARLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS THROUGH. STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 260014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
REACHES FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE NERN CONUS....WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OVER THE WRN CONUS. INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LINGERED INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...WITH LITTLE ELSE OTHER
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MONTANA BUILDING IN BEHIND. OVERALL SKY COVER HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE N/NERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND
70 IN NRN AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NC KS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED FROM
THE WRN TROUGH...AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MANY LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL DATA WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF THE BETTER CHANCES...AND TO TRIM BACK SRN PORTIONS A BIT.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NAM/SREF/RAP/HRRR SHOWING
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO COME ACROSS PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASED LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. WILL KEEP
STRONG/SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...CANT RULE IT OUT WITH THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...MAY END UP BEING
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKING TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE THING WANE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT AND THE LLJ DIMINISHES. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE 12-15Z HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING TO AGAIN SEE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING WITH MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...EASTERLY WINDS...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE NORTH
TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
ALLBLEND DID PRESENT 20-30% POPS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT TO HELP PROMOTE
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH PROVIDING
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE...LIKELY ONLY MAXING OUT AT 20-25KTS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING WHEN POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT...BUT THESES STORMS SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH. STORMS IN COLORADO HAVE ERUPTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IF A PARTICULARLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS THROUGH. STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS LIKELY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 252022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
REACHES FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE NERN CONUS....WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OVER THE WRN CONUS. INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LINGERED INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...WITH LITTLE ELSE OTHER
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MONTANA BUILDING IN BEHIND. OVERALL SKY COVER HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE N/NERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND
70 IN NRN AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NC KS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED FROM
THE WRN TROUGH...AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MANY LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL DATA WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF THE BETTER CHANCES...AND TO TRIM BACK SRN PORTIONS A BIT.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NAM/SREF/RAP/HRRR SHOWING
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO COME ACROSS PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASED LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. WILL KEEP
STRONG/SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...CANT RULE IT OUT WITH THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...MAY END UP BEING
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKING TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE THING WANE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT AND THE LLJ DIMINISHES. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE 12-15Z HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING TO AGAIN SEE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING WITH MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...EASTERLY WINDS...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE NORTH
TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
ALLBLEND DID PRESENT 20-30% POPS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT TO HELP PROMOTE
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH PROVIDING
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE...LIKELY ONLY MAXING OUT AT 20-25KTS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
LINGER AROUND THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND KEPT THE VC MENTION GOING. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND ADJUST TIMING IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND BASED ON
DATA FROM 12Z MODELS...BACK OFF THE TIMING A FEW HOURS. KEPT THE
MENTION AS VC AT THIS POINT...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST BOTH
TERMINALS MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF
ACTIVITY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
WINDS...REMAINING GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADO




000
FXUS63 KGID 252022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
REACHES FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE NERN CONUS....WHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE SLIDING INTO
ONTARIO AND THE OTHER OVER THE WRN CONUS. INCREASED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
LINGERED INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...WITH LITTLE ELSE OTHER
THAN A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...AIDED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER MONTANA BUILDING IN BEHIND. OVERALL SKY COVER HAS DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE N/NERLY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 3PM OBS RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND
70 IN NRN AREAS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS PARTS OF NC KS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED FROM
THE WRN TROUGH...AND THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MANY LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL DATA WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE
ONSET OF THE BETTER CHANCES...AND TO TRIM BACK SRN PORTIONS A BIT.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NAM/SREF/RAP/HRRR SHOWING
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SFC
FRONT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO COME ACROSS PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF AN INCREASED LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. WILL KEEP
STRONG/SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...CANT RULE IT OUT WITH THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODELS.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...MAY END UP BEING
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LOOKING TO LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE THING WANE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT AND THE LLJ DIMINISHES. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE 12-15Z HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF...WITH ONLY 20-30 POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING TO AGAIN SEE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING WITH MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...EASTERLY WINDS...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE NORTH
TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH
SATURDAY AND AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FINALLY INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
ALLBLEND DID PRESENT 20-30% POPS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT TO HELP PROMOTE
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH PROVIDING
0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ON
THE WEAK SIDE...LIKELY ONLY MAXING OUT AT 20-25KTS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO OUTLOOK
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
LINGER AROUND THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND KEPT THE VC MENTION GOING. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND ADJUST TIMING IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND BASED ON
DATA FROM 12Z MODELS...BACK OFF THE TIMING A FEW HOURS. KEPT THE
MENTION AS VC AT THIS POINT...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST BOTH
TERMINALS MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF
ACTIVITY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
WINDS...REMAINING GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADO





000
FXUS63 KGID 251725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START
THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORER AND IN OREGON...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE FM OLD MEXICO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A PSEUDO STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE TO THE NORTH THERE IS A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY NOTED ON KLNX RADAR WORKING SOUTH OF THEDFORD IN
NW NEB AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NEB/SD STATELINE.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CO AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING FM WESTERN KS EARLY AND
IS ON THE EDGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY IN THE MEAN FLOW WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OREGON WILL DIG INTO NV TODAY WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LEAD TO CHCS FOR STORMS THRU TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BUT WITH STORMS ONGOING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LIFT/DYNAMICS JUST CANNOT
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND HALF.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...WANT TO CONFESS THAT THIS LONG TERM SECTION
IS WRITTEN FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A FORECASTER WHO HAS BEEN VERY
OUT OF TOUCH WITH RECENT FORECAST TRENDS REGARDING THIS 6-DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FRESH FIRST
IMPRESSIONS PERSPECTIVE. AND SPEAKING OF FIRST IMPRESSIONS...THE
INITIAL QUESTION THAT CAME TO MIND WHEN PERUSING THE LARGE-SCALE
MID-UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WAS: WHAT MONTH REALLY IS
THIS? INSTEAD OF WHAT CAN OFTEN BE A FAIRLY RIDGE-DOMINATED AND
GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR (WITH LATE LAST AUGUST
BEING A PRIME EXAMPLE)...INSTEAD WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUITE ACTIVE
AND FOR SOME/MOST PLACES A RATHER WET WORK WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAYBE...JUST MAYBE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO COME IN QUESTION
SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

SO...TO SUMMARIZE THE BIG PICTURE...THE ENTIRE TUESDAY DAYTIME-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME CONTAINS A PARADE OF AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST 60-70 POPS CONCENTRATED IN
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAMES AND AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORING NEBRASKA PORTIONS OF THE CWA VERSUS KS. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY DAYTIME STILL REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORMAL PRECIP
MENTION...SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHAVES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS...ALTHOUGH NO TIME FRAMES APPEAR
TO FEATURE A TRULY CONCERNING COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND CAPE/SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000+ J/KG CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAMES...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BROAD-BRUSHING THE ENTIRE CWA WITH 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE A LATER UPGRADE TO A FORMAL SLIGHT
RISK AREA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AS HAS BEEN COVERED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...IT VERY WELL MIGHT
TURN OUT THAT THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND TEAM WITH AT LEAST MODEST
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850
MILLIBARS TO FOCUS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY/GENERALLY
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT WAVERS AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITHIN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. FROM A
VERY...VERY GENERAL PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN APPEAR RIPE TO
YIELD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 2-3+ INCH RAIN TOTALS BY
WEEKS END ACROSS A FAIRLY DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAPPEN TO TRACK. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING
THESE EXACT SWATHS OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS VIRTUALLY
IMPOSSIBLE MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...AND DEPENDING ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS IT VERY WELL MIGHT TURN OUT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD GET SPACED OUT FAIRLY EVENLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ON A
DAILY OR EVERY-OTHER-DAY BASIS...THUS MINIMIZING FLOODING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND STREAMS IS VERY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE SAME PARTICULAR COUNTIES
RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...AND
ALTHOUGH THE SOIL IS LIKELY PRIMED TO HANDLE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH FEW HYDRO CONCERNS...ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNING HYDRO ISSUES COULD
EVOLVE ESPECIALLY BY THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME IF RAIN REALIZES ITS
FULL POTENTIAL. THE BOTTOM LINE...FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY TYPE OF
FORMAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS IF FORECASTING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POPS IS NOT
CHALLENGING ENOUGH...IT ALSO FOLLOWS THAT CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY HIGHS...IS NOT ALL THAT
STELLAR AS WELL GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY WIDELY VARYING SCENARIOS ON
HOW MUCH DAYTIME PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MIGHT OCCUR...OR LACK THEREOF.
IN PARTICULAR...HIGHS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REFLECT A
SOLID 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 70S NORTH
TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT LINES UP COULD EVEN SEE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS JUMP WARMER THAN
THIS INTO THE MID 90S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT AS SHARP OF A GRADIENT (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...BUT GENERALLY REFLECTS MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO TIME TO DIVE INTO THE USUAL DAILY DETAILS ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DAY-TO-DAY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY IN
SOME CASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT FORECAST DETAILS AS PARTICULAR
DAYS/NIGHTS TRANSITION FROM THE MID TERM INTO THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME...ITS PROBABLY BEST THAT WE FOCUS ONLY ON THE
BROADER/LARGER-SCALE STORY FOR NOW ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
LINGER AROUND THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND KEPT THE VC MENTION GOING. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND ADJUST TIMING IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND BASED ON
DATA FROM 12Z MODELS...BACK OFF THE TIMING A FEW HOURS. KEPT THE
MENTION AS VC AT THIS POINT...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST BOTH
TERMINALS MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF
ACTIVITY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
WINDS...REMAINING GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN FOR A DECENT CHUNK OF THE
CWA TO END UP WITH A TOP-10 WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD...AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED THAT MARK ALREADY. HERE IS WHERE
THINGS CURRENTLY STAND AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS...WITH OVER 6 FULL DAYS TO GO IN THE
MONTH:

- GRAND ISLAND: 4.27 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS
AS 23RD-WETTEST OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896...AND MUST RECEIVE
AT LEAST 1.51 MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-1O. WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS: 5.69 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS AS
13TH-WETTEST OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...AND ONLY NEEDS 0.62
MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-10 AND 2.08 MORE TO BREAK
INTO THE AUGUST TOP-5. WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 9.86 INCHES IN
1903.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 251725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START
THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORER AND IN OREGON...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE FM OLD MEXICO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A PSEUDO STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE TO THE NORTH THERE IS A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY NOTED ON KLNX RADAR WORKING SOUTH OF THEDFORD IN
NW NEB AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NEB/SD STATELINE.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CO AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING FM WESTERN KS EARLY AND
IS ON THE EDGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY IN THE MEAN FLOW WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OREGON WILL DIG INTO NV TODAY WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LEAD TO CHCS FOR STORMS THRU TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BUT WITH STORMS ONGOING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LIFT/DYNAMICS JUST CANNOT
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND HALF.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...WANT TO CONFESS THAT THIS LONG TERM SECTION
IS WRITTEN FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A FORECASTER WHO HAS BEEN VERY
OUT OF TOUCH WITH RECENT FORECAST TRENDS REGARDING THIS 6-DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FRESH FIRST
IMPRESSIONS PERSPECTIVE. AND SPEAKING OF FIRST IMPRESSIONS...THE
INITIAL QUESTION THAT CAME TO MIND WHEN PERUSING THE LARGE-SCALE
MID-UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WAS: WHAT MONTH REALLY IS
THIS? INSTEAD OF WHAT CAN OFTEN BE A FAIRLY RIDGE-DOMINATED AND
GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR (WITH LATE LAST AUGUST
BEING A PRIME EXAMPLE)...INSTEAD WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUITE ACTIVE
AND FOR SOME/MOST PLACES A RATHER WET WORK WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAYBE...JUST MAYBE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO COME IN QUESTION
SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

SO...TO SUMMARIZE THE BIG PICTURE...THE ENTIRE TUESDAY DAYTIME-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME CONTAINS A PARADE OF AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST 60-70 POPS CONCENTRATED IN
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAMES AND AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORING NEBRASKA PORTIONS OF THE CWA VERSUS KS. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY DAYTIME STILL REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORMAL PRECIP
MENTION...SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHAVES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS...ALTHOUGH NO TIME FRAMES APPEAR
TO FEATURE A TRULY CONCERNING COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND CAPE/SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000+ J/KG CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAMES...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BROAD-BRUSHING THE ENTIRE CWA WITH 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE A LATER UPGRADE TO A FORMAL SLIGHT
RISK AREA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AS HAS BEEN COVERED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...IT VERY WELL MIGHT
TURN OUT THAT THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND TEAM WITH AT LEAST MODEST
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850
MILLIBARS TO FOCUS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY/GENERALLY
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT WAVERS AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITHIN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. FROM A
VERY...VERY GENERAL PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN APPEAR RIPE TO
YIELD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 2-3+ INCH RAIN TOTALS BY
WEEKS END ACROSS A FAIRLY DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAPPEN TO TRACK. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING
THESE EXACT SWATHS OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS VIRTUALLY
IMPOSSIBLE MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...AND DEPENDING ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS IT VERY WELL MIGHT TURN OUT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD GET SPACED OUT FAIRLY EVENLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ON A
DAILY OR EVERY-OTHER-DAY BASIS...THUS MINIMIZING FLOODING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND STREAMS IS VERY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE SAME PARTICULAR COUNTIES
RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...AND
ALTHOUGH THE SOIL IS LIKELY PRIMED TO HANDLE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH FEW HYDRO CONCERNS...ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNING HYDRO ISSUES COULD
EVOLVE ESPECIALLY BY THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME IF RAIN REALIZES ITS
FULL POTENTIAL. THE BOTTOM LINE...FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY TYPE OF
FORMAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS IF FORECASTING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POPS IS NOT
CHALLENGING ENOUGH...IT ALSO FOLLOWS THAT CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY HIGHS...IS NOT ALL THAT
STELLAR AS WELL GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY WIDELY VARYING SCENARIOS ON
HOW MUCH DAYTIME PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MIGHT OCCUR...OR LACK THEREOF.
IN PARTICULAR...HIGHS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REFLECT A
SOLID 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 70S NORTH
TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT LINES UP COULD EVEN SEE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS JUMP WARMER THAN
THIS INTO THE MID 90S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT AS SHARP OF A GRADIENT (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...BUT GENERALLY REFLECTS MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO TIME TO DIVE INTO THE USUAL DAILY DETAILS ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DAY-TO-DAY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY IN
SOME CASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT FORECAST DETAILS AS PARTICULAR
DAYS/NIGHTS TRANSITION FROM THE MID TERM INTO THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME...ITS PROBABLY BEST THAT WE FOCUS ONLY ON THE
BROADER/LARGER-SCALE STORY FOR NOW ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
LINGER AROUND THE AREA INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND KEPT THE VC MENTION GOING. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND ADJUST TIMING IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND BASED ON
DATA FROM 12Z MODELS...BACK OFF THE TIMING A FEW HOURS. KEPT THE
MENTION AS VC AT THIS POINT...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST BOTH
TERMINALS MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF
ACTIVITY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
WINDS...REMAINING GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN FOR A DECENT CHUNK OF THE
CWA TO END UP WITH A TOP-10 WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD...AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED THAT MARK ALREADY. HERE IS WHERE
THINGS CURRENTLY STAND AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS...WITH OVER 6 FULL DAYS TO GO IN THE
MONTH:

- GRAND ISLAND: 4.27 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS
AS 23RD-WETTEST OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896...AND MUST RECEIVE
AT LEAST 1.51 MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-1O. WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS: 5.69 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS AS
13TH-WETTEST OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...AND ONLY NEEDS 0.62
MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-10 AND 2.08 MORE TO BREAK
INTO THE AUGUST TOP-5. WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 9.86 INCHES IN
1903.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 251050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START
THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORER AND IN OREGON...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE FM OLD MEXICO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A PSEUDO STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE TO THE NORTH THERE IS A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY NOTED ON KLNX RADAR WORKING SOUTH OF THEDFORD IN
NW NEB AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NEB/SD STATELINE.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CO AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING FM WESTERN KS EARLY AND
IS ON THE EDGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY IN THE MEAN FLOW WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OREGON WILL DIG INTO NV TODAY WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LEAD TO CHCS FOR STORMS THRU TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BUT WITH STORMS ONGOING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LIFT/DYNAMICS JUST CANNOT
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND HALF.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...WANT TO CONFESS THAT THIS LONG TERM SECTION
IS WRITTEN FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A FORECASTER WHO HAS BEEN VERY
OUT OF TOUCH WITH RECENT FORECAST TRENDS REGARDING THIS 6-DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FRESH FIRST
IMPRESSIONS PERSPECTIVE. AND SPEAKING OF FIRST IMPRESSIONS...THE
INITIAL QUESTION THAT CAME TO MIND WHEN PERUSING THE LARGE-SCALE
MID-UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WAS: WHAT MONTH REALLY IS
THIS? INSTEAD OF WHAT CAN OFTEN BE A FAIRLY RIDGE-DOMINATED AND
GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR (WITH LATE LAST AUGUST
BEING A PRIME EXAMPLE)...INSTEAD WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUITE ACTIVE
AND FOR SOME/MOST PLACES A RATHER WET WORK WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAYBE...JUST MAYBE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO COME IN QUESTION
SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

SO...TO SUMMARIZE THE BIG PICTURE...THE ENTIRE TUESDAY DAYTIME-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME CONTAINS A PARADE OF AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST 60-70 POPS CONCENTRATED IN
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAMES AND AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORING NEBRASKA PORTIONS OF THE CWA VERSUS KS. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY DAYTIME STILL REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORMAL PRECIP
MENTION...SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHAVES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS...ALTHOUGH NO TIME FRAMES APPEAR
TO FEATURE A TRULY CONCERNING COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND CAPE/SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000+ J/KG CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAMES...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BROAD-BRUSHING THE ENTIRE CWA WITH 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE A LATER UPGRADE TO A FORMAL SLIGHT
RISK AREA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AS HAS BEEN COVERED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...IT VERY WELL MIGHT
TURN OUT THAT THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND TEAM WITH AT LEAST MODEST
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850
MILLIBARS TO FOCUS FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY/GENERALLY
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT WAVERS AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITHIN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. FROM A
VERY...VERY GENERAL PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN APPEAR RIPE TO
YIELD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 2-3+ INCH RAIN TOTALS BY
WEEKS END ACROSS A FAIRLY DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAPPEN TO TRACK. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING
THESE EXACT SWATHS OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS VIRTUALLY
IMPOSSIBLE MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...AND DEPENDING ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS IT VERY WELL MIGHT TURN OUT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD GET SPACED OUT FAIRLY EVENLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ON A
DAILY OR EVERY-OTHER-DAY BASIS...THUS MINIMIZING FLOODING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND STREAMS IS VERY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE SAME PARTICULAR COUNTIES
RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...AND
ALTHOUGH THE SOIL IS LIKELY PRIMED TO HANDLE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH FEW HYDRO CONCERNS...ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNING HYDRO ISSUES COULD
EVOLVE ESPECIALLY BY THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME IF RAIN REALIZES ITS
FULL POTENTIAL. THE BOTTOM LINE...FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY TYPE OF
FORMAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS IF FORECASTING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POPS IS NOT
CHALLENGING ENOUGH...IT ALSO FOLLOWS THAT CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY HIGHS...IS NOT ALL THAT
STELLAR AS WELL GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY WIDELY VARYING SCENARIOS ON
HOW MUCH DAYTIME PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MIGHT OCCUR...OR LACK THEREOF.
IN PARTICULAR...HIGHS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REFLECT A
SOLID 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 70S NORTH
TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT LINES UP COULD EVEN SEE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS JUMP WARMER THAN
THIS INTO THE MID 90S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT AS SHARP OF A GRADIENT (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...BUT GENERALLY REFLECTS MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO TIME TO DIVE INTO THE USUAL DAILY DETAILS ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DAY-TO-DAY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY IN
SOME CASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT FORECAST DETAILS AS PARTICULAR
DAYS/NIGHTS TRANSITION FROM THE MID TERM INTO THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME...ITS PROBABLY BEST THAT WE FOCUS ONLY ON THE
BROADER/LARGER-SCALE STORY FOR NOW ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONVECTION IS ROLLING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND IS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF KEAR. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF TSTMS FOR THE
MORNING...A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND REDEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT
BUT TIMING/TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN FOR A DECENT CHUNK OF THE
CWA TO END UP WITH A TOP-10 WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD...AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED THAT MARK ALREADY. HERE IS WHERE
THINGS CURRENTLY STAND AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS...WITH OVER 6 FULL DAYS TO GO IN THE
MONTH:

- GRAND ISLAND: 4.27 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS
AS 23RD-WETTEST OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896...AND MUST RECEIVE
AT LEAST 1.51 MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-1O. WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS: 5.69 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS AS
13TH-WETTEST OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...AND ONLY NEEDS 0.62
MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-10 AND 2.08 MORE TO BREAK
INTO THE AUGUST TOP-5. WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 9.86 INCHES IN
1903.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 251050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START
THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORER AND IN OREGON...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE FM OLD MEXICO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A PSEUDO STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE TO THE NORTH THERE IS A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY NOTED ON KLNX RADAR WORKING SOUTH OF THEDFORD IN
NW NEB AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NEB/SD STATELINE.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CO AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING FM WESTERN KS EARLY AND
IS ON THE EDGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY IN THE MEAN FLOW WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OREGON WILL DIG INTO NV TODAY WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LEAD TO CHCS FOR STORMS THRU TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BUT WITH STORMS ONGOING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LIFT/DYNAMICS JUST CANNOT
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND HALF.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...WANT TO CONFESS THAT THIS LONG TERM SECTION
IS WRITTEN FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A FORECASTER WHO HAS BEEN VERY
OUT OF TOUCH WITH RECENT FORECAST TRENDS REGARDING THIS 6-DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FRESH FIRST
IMPRESSIONS PERSPECTIVE. AND SPEAKING OF FIRST IMPRESSIONS...THE
INITIAL QUESTION THAT CAME TO MIND WHEN PERUSING THE LARGE-SCALE
MID-UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WAS: WHAT MONTH REALLY IS
THIS? INSTEAD OF WHAT CAN OFTEN BE A FAIRLY RIDGE-DOMINATED AND
GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR (WITH LATE LAST AUGUST
BEING A PRIME EXAMPLE)...INSTEAD WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUITE ACTIVE
AND FOR SOME/MOST PLACES A RATHER WET WORK WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAYBE...JUST MAYBE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO COME IN QUESTION
SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

SO...TO SUMMARIZE THE BIG PICTURE...THE ENTIRE TUESDAY DAYTIME-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME CONTAINS A PARADE OF AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST 60-70 POPS CONCENTRATED IN
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAMES AND AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORING NEBRASKA PORTIONS OF THE CWA VERSUS KS. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY DAYTIME STILL REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORMAL PRECIP
MENTION...SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHAVES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS...ALTHOUGH NO TIME FRAMES APPEAR
TO FEATURE A TRULY CONCERNING COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND CAPE/SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000+ J/KG CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAMES...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BROAD-BRUSHING THE ENTIRE CWA WITH 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE A LATER UPGRADE TO A FORMAL SLIGHT
RISK AREA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AS HAS BEEN COVERED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...IT VERY WELL MIGHT
TURN OUT THAT THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND TEAM WITH AT LEAST MODEST
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850
MILLIBARS TO FOCUS FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY/GENERALLY
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT WAVERS AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITHIN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. FROM A
VERY...VERY GENERAL PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN APPEAR RIPE TO
YIELD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 2-3+ INCH RAIN TOTALS BY
WEEKS END ACROSS A FAIRLY DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAPPEN TO TRACK. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING
THESE EXACT SWATHS OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS VIRTUALLY
IMPOSSIBLE MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...AND DEPENDING ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS IT VERY WELL MIGHT TURN OUT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD GET SPACED OUT FAIRLY EVENLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ON A
DAILY OR EVERY-OTHER-DAY BASIS...THUS MINIMIZING FLOODING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND STREAMS IS VERY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE SAME PARTICULAR COUNTIES
RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...AND
ALTHOUGH THE SOIL IS LIKELY PRIMED TO HANDLE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH FEW HYDRO CONCERNS...ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNING HYDRO ISSUES COULD
EVOLVE ESPECIALLY BY THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME IF RAIN REALIZES ITS
FULL POTENTIAL. THE BOTTOM LINE...FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY TYPE OF
FORMAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS IF FORECASTING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POPS IS NOT
CHALLENGING ENOUGH...IT ALSO FOLLOWS THAT CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY HIGHS...IS NOT ALL THAT
STELLAR AS WELL GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY WIDELY VARYING SCENARIOS ON
HOW MUCH DAYTIME PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MIGHT OCCUR...OR LACK THEREOF.
IN PARTICULAR...HIGHS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REFLECT A
SOLID 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 70S NORTH
TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT LINES UP COULD EVEN SEE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS JUMP WARMER THAN
THIS INTO THE MID 90S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT AS SHARP OF A GRADIENT (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...BUT GENERALLY REFLECTS MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO TIME TO DIVE INTO THE USUAL DAILY DETAILS ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DAY-TO-DAY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY IN
SOME CASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT FORECAST DETAILS AS PARTICULAR
DAYS/NIGHTS TRANSITION FROM THE MID TERM INTO THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME...ITS PROBABLY BEST THAT WE FOCUS ONLY ON THE
BROADER/LARGER-SCALE STORY FOR NOW ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

CONVECTION IS ROLLING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND IS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF KEAR. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF TSTMS FOR THE
MORNING...A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND REDEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT
BUT TIMING/TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN FOR A DECENT CHUNK OF THE
CWA TO END UP WITH A TOP-10 WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD...AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED THAT MARK ALREADY. HERE IS WHERE
THINGS CURRENTLY STAND AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS...WITH OVER 6 FULL DAYS TO GO IN THE
MONTH:

- GRAND ISLAND: 4.27 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS
AS 23RD-WETTEST OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896...AND MUST RECEIVE
AT LEAST 1.51 MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-1O. WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS: 5.69 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS AS
13TH-WETTEST OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...AND ONLY NEEDS 0.62
MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-10 AND 2.08 MORE TO BREAK
INTO THE AUGUST TOP-5. WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 9.86 INCHES IN
1903.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 251008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START
THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORER AND IN OREGON...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE FM OLD MEXICO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A PSEUDO STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE TO THE NORTH THERE IS A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY NOTED ON KLNX RADAR WORKING SOUTH OF THEDFORD IN
NW NEB AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NEB/SD STATELINE.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CO AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING FM WESTERN KS EARLY AND
IS ON THE EDGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY IN THE MEAN FLOW WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OREGON WILL DIG INTO NV TODAY WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LEAD TO CHCS FOR STORMS THRU TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BUT WITH STORMS ONGOING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LIFT/DYNAMICS JUST CANNOT
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND HALF.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...WANT TO CONFESS THAT THIS LONG TERM SECTION
IS WRITTEN FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A FORECASTER WHO HAS BEEN VERY
OUT OF TOUCH WITH RECENT FORECAST TRENDS REGARDING THIS 6-DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FRESH FIRST
IMPRESSIONS PERSPECTIVE. AND SPEAKING OF FIRST IMPRESSIONS...THE
INITIAL QUESTION THAT CAME TO MIND WHEN PERUSING THE LARGE-SCALE
MID-UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WAS: WHAT MONTH REALLY IS
THIS? INSTEAD OF WHAT CAN OFTEN BE A FAIRLY RIDGE-DOMINATED AND
GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR (WITH LATE LAST AUGUST
BEING A PRIME EXAMPLE)...INSTEAD WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUITE ACTIVE
AND FOR SOME/MOST PLACES A RATHER WET WORK WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAYBE...JUST MAYBE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO COME IN QUESTION
SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

SO...TO SUMMARIZE THE BIG PICTURE...THE ENTIRE TUESDAY DAYTIME-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME CONTAINS A PARADE OF AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST 60-70 POPS CONCENTRATED IN
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAMES AND AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORING NEBRASKA PORTIONS OF THE CWA VERSUS KS. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY DAYTIME STILL REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORMAL PRECIP
MENTION...SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHAVES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS...ALTHOUGH NO TIME FRAMES APPEAR
TO FEATURE A TRULY CONCERNING COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND CAPE/SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000+ J/KG CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAMES...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BROAD-BRUSHING THE ENTIRE CWA WITH 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE A LATER UPGRADE TO A FORMAL SLIGHT
RISK AREA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AS HAS BEEN COVERED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...IT VERY WELL MIGHT
TURN OUT THAT THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND TEAM WITH AT LEAST MODEST
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850
MILLIBARS TO FOCUS FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY/GENERALLY
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT WAVERS AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITHIN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. FROM A
VERY...VERY GENERAL PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN APPEAR RIPE TO
YIELD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 2-3+ INCH RAIN TOTALS BY
WEEKS END ACROSS A FAIRLY DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAPPEN TO TRACK. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING
THESE EXACT SWATHS OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS VIRTUALLY
IMPOSSIBLE MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...AND DEPENDING ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS IT VERY WELL MIGHT TURN OUT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD GET SPACED OUT FAIRLY EVENLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ON A
DAILY OR EVERY-OTHER-DAY BASIS...THUS MINIMIZING FLOODING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND STREAMS IS VERY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE SAME PARTICULAR COUNTIES
RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...AND
ALTHOUGH THE SOIL IS LIKELY PRIMED TO HANDLE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH FEW HYDRO CONCERNS...ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNING HYDRO ISSUES COULD
EVOLVE ESPECIALLY BY THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME IF RAIN REALIZES ITS
FULL POTENTIAL. THE BOTTOM LINE...FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY TYPE OF
FORMAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS IF FORECASTING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POPS IS NOT
CHALLENGING ENOUGH...IT ALSO FOLLOWS THAT CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY HIGHS...IS NOT ALL THAT
STELLAR AS WELL GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY WIDELY VARYING SCENARIOS ON
HOW MUCH DAYTIME PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MIGHT OCCUR...OR LACK THEREOF.
IN PARTICULAR...HIGHS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REFLECT A
SOLID 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 70S NORTH
TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT LINES UP COULD EVEN SEE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS JUMP WARMER THAN
THIS INTO THE MID 90S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT AS SHARP OF A GRADIENT (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...BUT GENERALLY REFLECTS MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO TIME TO DIVE INTO THE USUAL DAILY DETAILS ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DAY-TO-DAY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY IN
SOME CASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT FORECAST DETAILS AS PARTICULAR
DAYS/NIGHTS TRANSITION FROM THE MID TERM INTO THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME...ITS PROBABLY BEST THAT WE FOCUS ONLY ON THE
BROADER/LARGER-SCALE STORY FOR NOW ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATTER HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHEN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN FOR A DECENT CHUNK OF THE
CWA TO END UP WITH A TOP-10 WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD...AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED THAT MARK ALREADY. HERE IS WHERE
THINGS CURRENTLY STAND AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS...WITH OVER 6 FULL DAYS TO GO IN THE
MONTH:

- GRAND ISLAND: 4.27 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS
AS 23RD-WETTEST OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896...AND MUST RECEIVE
AT LEAST 1.51 MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-1O. WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS: 5.69 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS AS
13TH-WETTEST OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...AND ONLY NEEDS 0.62
MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-10 AND 2.08 MORE TO BREAK
INTO THE AUGUST TOP-5. WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 9.86 INCHES IN
1903.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 251008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START
THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORER AND IN OREGON...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE FM OLD MEXICO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A PSEUDO STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE TO THE NORTH THERE IS A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY NOTED ON KLNX RADAR WORKING SOUTH OF THEDFORD IN
NW NEB AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NEB/SD STATELINE.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CO AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING FM WESTERN KS EARLY AND
IS ON THE EDGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY IN THE MEAN FLOW WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OREGON WILL DIG INTO NV TODAY WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LEAD TO CHCS FOR STORMS THRU TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BUT WITH STORMS ONGOING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LIFT/DYNAMICS JUST CANNOT
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND HALF.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...WANT TO CONFESS THAT THIS LONG TERM SECTION
IS WRITTEN FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A FORECASTER WHO HAS BEEN VERY
OUT OF TOUCH WITH RECENT FORECAST TRENDS REGARDING THIS 6-DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A FRESH FIRST
IMPRESSIONS PERSPECTIVE. AND SPEAKING OF FIRST IMPRESSIONS...THE
INITIAL QUESTION THAT CAME TO MIND WHEN PERUSING THE LARGE-SCALE
MID-UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WAS: WHAT MONTH REALLY IS
THIS? INSTEAD OF WHAT CAN OFTEN BE A FAIRLY RIDGE-DOMINATED AND
GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR (WITH LATE LAST AUGUST
BEING A PRIME EXAMPLE)...INSTEAD WE ARE LOOKING AT A QUITE ACTIVE
AND FOR SOME/MOST PLACES A RATHER WET WORK WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAYBE...JUST MAYBE
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS IS STARTING TO COME IN QUESTION
SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY PER THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

SO...TO SUMMARIZE THE BIG PICTURE...THE ENTIRE TUESDAY DAYTIME-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME CONTAINS A PARADE OF AT LEAST 20-40
PERCENT POPS...WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST 60-70 POPS CONCENTRATED IN
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAMES AND AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORING NEBRASKA PORTIONS OF THE CWA VERSUS KS. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY DAYTIME STILL REMAINS VOID OF ANY FORMAL PRECIP
MENTION...SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEHAVES.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS...ALTHOUGH NO TIME FRAMES APPEAR
TO FEATURE A TRULY CONCERNING COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND CAPE/SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000+ J/KG CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR CERTAINLY
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMATTERING OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAMES...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER BROAD-BRUSHING THE ENTIRE CWA WITH 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE A LATER UPGRADE TO A FORMAL SLIGHT
RISK AREA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

AS HAS BEEN COVERED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS...IT VERY WELL MIGHT
TURN OUT THAT THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND TEAM WITH AT LEAST MODEST
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ENHANCEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850
MILLIBARS TO FOCUS FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY JUST NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY/GENERALLY
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT THAT WAVERS AROUND AT LEAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITHIN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. FROM A
VERY...VERY GENERAL PERSPECTIVE...THIS PATTERN APPEAR RIPE TO
YIELD A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 2-3+ INCH RAIN TOTALS BY
WEEKS END ACROSS A FAIRLY DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY IN PLACES WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAPPEN TO TRACK. OF COURSE...PINPOINTING
THESE EXACT SWATHS OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS VIRTUALLY
IMPOSSIBLE MORE THAN 12-24 HOURS IN ADVANCE...AND DEPENDING ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS IT VERY WELL MIGHT TURN OUT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD GET SPACED OUT FAIRLY EVENLY IN AREAL COVERAGE ON A
DAILY OR EVERY-OTHER-DAY BASIS...THUS MINIMIZING FLOODING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND STREAMS IS VERY POSSIBLE SHOULD THE SAME PARTICULAR COUNTIES
RECEIVE 1-2+ INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...AND
ALTHOUGH THE SOIL IS LIKELY PRIMED TO HANDLE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES
OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH FEW HYDRO CONCERNS...ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNING HYDRO ISSUES COULD
EVOLVE ESPECIALLY BY THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME IF RAIN REALIZES ITS
FULL POTENTIAL. THE BOTTOM LINE...FAR TOO EARLY FOR ANY TYPE OF
FORMAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS IF FORECASTING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POPS IS NOT
CHALLENGING ENOUGH...IT ALSO FOLLOWS THAT CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY HIGHS...IS NOT ALL THAT
STELLAR AS WELL GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY WIDELY VARYING SCENARIOS ON
HOW MUCH DAYTIME PRECIP/CLOUD COVER MIGHT OCCUR...OR LACK THEREOF.
IN PARTICULAR...HIGHS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REFLECT A
SOLID 10-15 DEGREE GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 70S NORTH
TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT LINES UP COULD EVEN SEE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS JUMP WARMER THAN
THIS INTO THE MID 90S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT AS SHARP OF A GRADIENT (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...BUT GENERALLY REFLECTS MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

NO TIME TO DIVE INTO THE USUAL DAILY DETAILS ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DAY-TO-DAY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MAY IN
SOME CASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT FORECAST DETAILS AS PARTICULAR
DAYS/NIGHTS TRANSITION FROM THE MID TERM INTO THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME...ITS PROBABLY BEST THAT WE FOCUS ONLY ON THE
BROADER/LARGER-SCALE STORY FOR NOW ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATTER HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHEN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN FOR A DECENT CHUNK OF THE
CWA TO END UP WITH A TOP-10 WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD...AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED THAT MARK ALREADY. HERE IS WHERE
THINGS CURRENTLY STAND AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS...WITH OVER 6 FULL DAYS TO GO IN THE
MONTH:

- GRAND ISLAND: 4.27 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS
AS 23RD-WETTEST OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896...AND MUST RECEIVE
AT LEAST 1.51 MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-1O. WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS: 5.69 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...CURRENTLY STANDS AS
13TH-WETTEST OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...AND ONLY NEEDS 0.62
MORE INCHES TO BREAK INTO THE AUGUST TOP-10 AND 2.08 MORE TO BREAK
INTO THE AUGUST TOP-5. WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD WAS 9.86 INCHES IN
1903.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 250916
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START
THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORER AND IN OREGON...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE FM OLD MEXICO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A PSEUDO STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHILE TO THE NORTH THERE IS A
DISTINCT BOUNDARY NOTED ON KLNX RADAR WORKING SOUTH OF THEDFORD IN
NW NEB AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NEB/SD STATELINE.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE EVENING ACROSS CO AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING FM WESTERN KS EARLY AND
IS ON THE EDGE OF OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY IN THE MEAN FLOW WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR PCPN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OREGON WILL DIG INTO NV TODAY WITH
SW FLOW ALOFT FURTHER DEEPENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LEAD TO CHCS FOR STORMS THRU TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT BUT WITH STORMS ONGOING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LIFT/DYNAMICS JUST CANNOT
LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND HALF.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLS ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY





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