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000
FXUS63 KGID 230524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING
EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S/70S AIDED BY
GOOD MIXING IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. SO FAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE SFC
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH
REACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50KTS TONIGHT
AND IN WAA REGIME WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THIS TO SOME DEGREE INDICATING THAT THE POTENTIAL IS MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA...MORE
IN LINE ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY
WHERE CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY FORM AS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED TO SMALL CHC POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EDGES CLOSER TO THE PLAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH SFC DPS RISING TO AROUND 50F OR
IN THE LOW 50S...AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG IN THE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ADVANCING SE ACROSS NEB AND THE
DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON 12Z WRF MODEL TIMING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FAVORS THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 00Z. SHEAR PROGS ARE AROUND 30KTS...AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/FOCUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS
WILL BE VERY STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING INITIALLY CLOSE TO H85 IN THE MORNING AND
DEEPENING TO H7 OR JUST ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY. HOW
FAR WEST TO GO WITH HEADLINE IS TRICKY AS WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT DECIDED TO BUFFER A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE
WEST IN CASE THINGS SLOW DOWN...AND END TIMING OF HEADLINE CAN BE
ADJUSTED/CANCELLED EARLIER THAN OUR EASTERN AREAS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING...3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE GREATER THAN
5MB SO STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...JUST BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MUCAPE IS BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND DECREASES BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EVENING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SUN WILL COME OUT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND
70 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY THEN STARTS TO CIRCLE THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE WAS
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME AND HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A
LITTLE. AS THE LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND AND BACK INTO THE AREA.
THE MODELS BRING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER SO EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND ZERO DEG C GET NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT JUST RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FOR MONDAY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND PULLS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
IT REMAINING THAT WAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIP/THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
POINT...WITH THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION
OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTION GOING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN...AS IT WILL BE A BREEZY/WINDY
TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING...SPEEDS
WILL TAPER OFF A BIT...BUT THEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO





000
FXUS63 KGID 230122
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
822 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING
EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S/70S AIDED BY
GOOD MIXING IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. SO FAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE SFC
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH
REACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50KTS TONIGHT
AND IN WAA REGIME WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THIS TO SOME DEGREE INDICATING THAT THE POTENTIAL IS MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA...MORE
IN LINE ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY
WHERE CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY FORM AS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED TO SMALL CHC POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EDGES CLOSER TO THE PLAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH SFC DPS RISING TO AROUND 50F OR
IN THE LOW 50S...AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG IN THE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ADVANCING SE ACROSS NEB AND THE
DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON 12Z WRF MODEL TIMING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FAVORS THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 00Z. SHEAR PROGS ARE AROUND 30KTS...AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/FOCUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS
WILL BE VERY STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING INITIALLY CLOSE TO H85 IN THE MORNING AND
DEEPENING TO H7 OR JUST ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY. HOW
FAR WEST TO GO WITH HEADLINE IS TRICKY AS WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT DECIDED TO BUFFER A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE
WEST IN CASE THINGS SLOW DOWN...AND END TIMING OF HEADLINE CAN BE
ADJUSTED/CANCELLED EARLIER THAN OUR EASTERN AREAS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING...3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE GREATER THAN
5MB SO STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...JUST BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MUCAPE IS BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND DECREASES BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EVENING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SUN WILL COME OUT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND
70 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY THEN STARTS TO CIRCLE THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE WAS
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME AND HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A
LITTLE. AS THE LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND AND BACK INTO THE AREA.
THE MODELS BRING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER SO EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND ZERO DEG C GET NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT JUST RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FOR MONDAY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND PULLS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST. A STEADY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A SHORT LULL DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHEN WIND IS
NEAR 15 KTS OR SO...BUT IF THIS HAPPENS...GUSTINESS WILL RETURN IN
SHORT ORDER AS A PROMINENT LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. BY OVERNIGHT...WINDS NEAR 1500 FT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING LLWS...DESPITE THE
FAIRLY GUSTY SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL DECREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WIND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST BEFORE THE END OF THIS
FORECAST...SO VCTS WAS INCLUDED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 222024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING
EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S/70S AIDED BY
GOOD MIXING IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. SO FAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE SFC
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH
REACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50KTS TONIGHT
AND IN WAA REGIME WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THIS TO SOME DEGREE INDICATING THAT THE POTENTIAL IS MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA...MORE
IN LINE ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY
WHERE CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY FORM AS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED TO SMALL CHC POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EDGES CLOSER TO THE PLAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH SFC DPS RISING TO AROUND 50F OR
IN THE LOW 50S...AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG IN THE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ADVANCING SE ACROSS NEB AND THE
DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON 12Z WRF MODEL TIMING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FAVORS THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 00Z. SHEAR PROGS ARE AROUND 30KTS...AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/FOCUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS
WILL BE VERY STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING INITIALLY CLOSE TO H85 IN THE MORNING AND
DEEPENING TO H7 OR JUST ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY. HOW
FAR WEST TO GO WITH HEADLINE IS TRICKY AS WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT DECIDED TO BUFFER A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE
WEST IN CASE THINGS SLOW DOWN...AND END TIMING OF HEADLINE CAN BE
ADJUSTED/CANCELLED EARLIER THAN OUR EASTERN AREAS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING...3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE GREATER THAN
5MB SO STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...JUST BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MUCAPE IS BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND DECREASES BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EVENING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SUN WILL COME OUT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND
70 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY THEN STARTS TO CIRCLE THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE WAS
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME AND HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A
LITTLE. AS THE LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND AND BACK INTO THE AREA.
THE MODELS BRING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER SO EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND ZERO DEG C GET NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT JUST RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FOR MONDAY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND PULLS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIND IS THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ARE FORECAST. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND INCLUDED SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF JUST
YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 30KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 221710
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z UPPER AIR OBS AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS RIDGING REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES...SET UP BETWEEN ONE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST REGION...AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IS
KEEPING QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE A
BIT OF CIRRUS SLIDING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS UP INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY GENERALLY
COOLED INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WILL SIDE EAST TODAY AS THAT WEST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND...AND BY THIS EVENING THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO MORE S/SERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING...AS THE AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...WITH SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE...AND STRONGER GUSTS...AND THE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS THE ERN HALF REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FURTHER INTO THE DAY.

MAIN CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS TO TREND BACK
DEWPOINTS...A MOVE SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE AND MOST MODELS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ AS THOSE WINDS TURN TO THE S/SE.
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPS
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
FORECAST RH VALUES FALLING INTO MAINLY THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED...WILL INSERT NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE HWO ACROSS SC NEB...AS CALLS TO
PARTNERS YESTERDAY DETERMINED THE 1+ INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES HAS RESULTED IN FUELS MORE
UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TEMPS/DPTS THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO
PUSH THINGS CLOSER TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH THE SFC
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY S/SE WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...BUT REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTED OUT AHEAD LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION.  THIS
DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIFT VIA A HEFTY S/SWRLY
LLJ...IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION...BUT
MODELS EVEN THIS CLOSE VARY SOME ON THE LOCATION. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE 00-06Z HOURS DRY...AND KEPT THE 06-12Z POPS
ON THE LOWER SIDE...AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE JET OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. SHOULD ACTIVITY END UP
DEVELOPING...COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE REGION...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION
ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS PUSHING A DRY LINE FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR...ALL MODELS BREAK OUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL PUSH AS EVENING
APPROACHES. THERE IS ALSO STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WAVE MOVING EAST
ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING OVERDONE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. JUST NOT SURE THAT MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED /ALA LAST WEEKEND/. EXPECTING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE HIGH BASED IN NATURE BEFORE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EAST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY GOOD SHEAR. SOME CONCERN THINGS COULD QUICKLY WEAKEN
WITH STABILIZING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY 10 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...WITH THE AGREEMENT IN STORM FORMATION AMONG ALL
MODELS... INCLUDING 4KM WRF...THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC IS ON
TARGET AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH OF THE SEASON. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.

EARLIER IN THE DAY...LINGER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST OF BY LATE MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO MAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...IT WILL WINDY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THINGS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS FOR A
TIME.

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ABOARD DOWN
SLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTED PLENTY OF SUN...GOOD
MIXING... AND HAVE LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH THIS FAVORABLE
DRIER PATTERN. CURRENT HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25%
RANGE SO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSE AS THE TIME NEARS.

MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE INFLUENCES BY LARGE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR. LOOK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED...AN UPPER LEVEL IS THE PRIMARY
CULPRIT...BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW BY
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AS IT SLIDES UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER HEIGHT
PATTERN. ONE THING ABOUT THIS PATTERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DECENT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OVER SEVERAL DAYS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...ITS HARD TO REALLY PIN DOWN THE EXACT
LOCATION GIVEN FORECASTING THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOST CHALLENGING DUE TO ITS CUT OFF NATURE. FOR
NOW...WIDESPREAD 30-50 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND FORECAST WITH SUBSTANTIAL REFINEMENT TO COME LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BELOW NORMAL ONCE
THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL PROBABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS MAY COME INTO PLAY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIND IS THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ARE FORECAST. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND INCLUDED SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS.
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF JUST
YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 30KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 221133
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z UPPER AIR OBS AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS RIDGING REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES...SET UP BETWEEN ONE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST REGION...AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IS
KEEPING QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE A
BIT OF CIRRUS SLIDING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS UP INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY GENERALLY
COOLED INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WILL SIDE EAST TODAY AS THAT WEST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND...AND BY THIS EVENING THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO MORE S/SERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING...AS THE AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...WITH SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE...AND STRONGER GUSTS...AND THE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS THE ERN HALF REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FURTHER INTO THE DAY.

MAIN CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS TO TREND BACK
DEWPOINTS...A MOVE SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE AND MOST MODELS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ AS THOSE WINDS TURN TO THE S/SE.
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPS
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
FORECAST RH VALUES FALLING INTO MAINLY THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED...WILL INSERT NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE HWO ACROSS SC NEB...AS CALLS TO
PARTNERS YESTERDAY DETERMINED THE 1+ INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES HAS RESULTED IN FUELS MORE
UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TEMPS/DPTS THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO
PUSH THINGS CLOSER TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH THE SFC
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY S/SE WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...BUT REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTED OUT AHEAD LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION.  THIS
DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIFT VIA A HEFTY S/SWRLY
LLJ...IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION...BUT
MODELS EVEN THIS CLOSE VARY SOME ON THE LOCATION. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE 00-06Z HOURS DRY...AND KEPT THE 06-12Z POPS
ON THE LOWER SIDE...AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE JET OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. SHOULD ACTIVITY END UP
DEVELOPING...COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE REGION...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION
ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS PUSHING A DRY LINE FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR...ALL MODELS BREAK OUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL PUSH AS EVENING
APPROACHES. THERE IS ALSO STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WAVE MOVING EAST
ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING OVERDONE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. JUST NOT SURE THAT MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED /ALA LAST WEEKEND/. EXPECTING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE HIGH BASED IN NATURE BEFORE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EAST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY GOOD SHEAR. SOME CONCERN THINGS COULD QUICKLY WEAKEN
WITH STABILIZING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY 10 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...WITH THE AGREEMENT IN STORM FORMATION AMONG ALL
MODELS... INCLUDING 4KM WRF...THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC IS ON
TARGET AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH OF THE SEASON. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.

EARLIER IN THE DAY...LINGER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST OF BY LATE MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO MAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...IT WILL WINDY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THINGS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS FOR A
TIME.

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ABOARD DOWN
SLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTED PLENTY OF SUN...GOOD
MIXING... AND HAVE LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH THIS FAVORABLE
DRIER PATTERN. CURRENT HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25%
RANGE SO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSE AS THE TIME NEARS.

MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE INFLUENCES BY LARGE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR. LOOK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED...AN UPPER LEVEL IS THE PRIMARY
CULPRIT...BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW BY
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AS IT SLIDES UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER HEIGHT
PATTERN. ONE THING ABOUT THIS PATTERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DECENT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OVER SEVERAL DAYS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...ITS HARD TO REALLY PIN DOWN THE EXACT
LOCATION GIVEN FORECASTING THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOST CHALLENGING DUE TO ITS CUT OFF NATURE. FOR
NOW...WIDESPREAD 30-50 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND FORECAST WITH SUBSTANTIAL REFINEMENT TO COME LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BELOW NORMAL ONCE
THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL PROBABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS MAY COME INTO PLAY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAM INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W/NW...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
ACTUALLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
LEAVE THE MENTION OUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADO





000
FXUS63 KGID 220841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z UPPER AIR OBS AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS RIDGING REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES...SET UP BETWEEN ONE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST REGION...AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IS
KEEPING QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE A
BIT OF CIRRUS SLIDING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS...SKIES ARE CLEAR. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS UP INTO SCENTRAL
CANADA...KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY GENERALLY
COOLED INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WILL SIDE EAST TODAY AS THAT WEST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND...AND BY THIS EVENING THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO MORE S/SERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING...AS THE AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...WITH SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE...AND STRONGER GUSTS...AND THE HIGHER SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS THE ERN HALF REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FURTHER INTO THE DAY.

MAIN CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS TO TREND BACK
DEWPOINTS...A MOVE SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE AND MOST MODELS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ AS THOSE WINDS TURN TO THE S/SE.
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER/MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPS
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
FORECAST RH VALUES FALLING INTO MAINLY THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED...WILL INSERT NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE HWO ACROSS SC NEB...AS CALLS TO
PARTNERS YESTERDAY DETERMINED THE 1+ INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES HAS RESULTED IN FUELS MORE
UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TEMPS/DPTS THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO
PUSH THINGS CLOSER TO CRITICAL LEVELS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH THE SFC
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY S/SE WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...BUT REMAINS
OVER THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTED OUT AHEAD LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION.  THIS
DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIFT VIA A HEFTY S/SWRLY
LLJ...IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION...BUT
MODELS EVEN THIS CLOSE VARY SOME ON THE LOCATION. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE 00-06Z HOURS DRY...AND KEPT THE 06-12Z POPS
ON THE LOWER SIDE...AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE JET OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. SHOULD ACTIVITY END UP
DEVELOPING...COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS SHOWING
PRETTY WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE REGION...SO KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION
ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS PUSHING A DRY LINE FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR...ALL MODELS BREAK OUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL PUSH AS EVENING
APPROACHES. THERE IS ALSO STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WAVE MOVING EAST
ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING OVERDONE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. JUST NOT SURE THAT MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED /ALA LAST WEEKEND/. EXPECTING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE HIGH BASED IN NATURE BEFORE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EAST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY GOOD SHEAR. SOME CONCERN THINGS COULD QUICKLY WEAKEN
WITH STABILIZING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY 10 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...WITH THE AGREEMENT IN STORM FORMATION AMONG ALL
MODELS... INCLUDING 4KM WRF...THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC IS ON
TARGET AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH OF THE SEASON. THIS IS MOST LIKELY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.

EARLIER IN THE DAY...LINGER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST OF BY LATE MORNING. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO MAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...IT WILL WINDY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THINGS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS FOR A
TIME.

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ABOARD DOWN
SLOPE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECTED PLENTY OF SUN...GOOD
MIXING... AND HAVE LOWERED SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH THIS FAVORABLE
DRIER PATTERN. CURRENT HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25%
RANGE SO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSE AS THE TIME NEARS.

MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE INFLUENCES BY LARGE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR. LOOK
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED...AN UPPER LEVEL IS THE PRIMARY
CULPRIT...BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW BY
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AS IT SLIDES UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER HEIGHT
PATTERN. ONE THING ABOUT THIS PATTERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DECENT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OVER SEVERAL DAYS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...ITS HARD TO REALLY PIN DOWN THE EXACT
LOCATION GIVEN FORECASTING THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOST CHALLENGING DUE TO ITS CUT OFF NATURE. FOR
NOW...WIDESPREAD 30-50 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND FORECAST WITH SUBSTANTIAL REFINEMENT TO COME LATER IN THE
WEEK. AS MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BELOW NORMAL ONCE
THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL PROBABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS MAY COME INTO PLAY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD SUNRISE. SPEEDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR 20 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS IS FORECAST TO LINGER EVEN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADO





000
FXUS63 KGID 220533
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1233 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIGRATES EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWLEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 50KTS. GOOD MID LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED AND THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG.

THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS MT WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY LLVL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG ON WEDNESDAY IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW MOVING EAST FM THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE WINDIEST
CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WINDS WILL
DROP OFF FROM W/E AS THE SFC TROUGH AND DRY LINE PUSH EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEB/WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND H85 IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND H7 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AT
OR ABOVE 30KTS. CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR WIND ADVISORY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST/HWO AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND AN AXIS OF SFC DPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS KS INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEB. SREF INSTABILITY
PROGS INDICATE INSTABILITY AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH OPERATIONAL
MODELS HIGHER THAN THIS WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND DRY LINE. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AROUND 30KTS AND HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SPRING AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS. CONVECTION SHLD FOCUS
ALONG THE DRY LINE/COOL FRONT AND EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ENTIRE LINE
SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE ADVANCING BOUNDARIES. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT AND
UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS...WITH CHCS DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS.

HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES FM CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIODS ARE VERY UNSETTLED AND WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODELS...DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
CR INIT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE THAN
THE GFS AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL.
STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD SUNRISE. SPEEDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR 20 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS IS FORECAST TO LINGER EVEN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
DECREASE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT EVEN IF THERE WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY HAVE THREE HOURS WHERE CONDITIONS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
FIRE WEATHER...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 212343
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIGRATES EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWLEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 50KTS. GOOD MID LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED AND THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG.

THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS MT WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY LLVL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG ON WEDNESDAY IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW MOVING EAST FM THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE WINDIEST
CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WINDS WILL
DROP OFF FROM W/E AS THE SFC TROUGH AND DRY LINE PUSH EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEB/WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND H85 IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND H7 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AT
OR ABOVE 30KTS. CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR WIND ADVISORY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST/HWO AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND AN AXIS OF SFC DPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS KS INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEB. SREF INSTABILITY
PROGS INDICATE INSTABILITY AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH OPERATIONAL
MODELS HIGHER THAN THIS WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND DRY LINE. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AROUND 30KTS AND HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SPRING AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS. CONVECTION SHLD FOCUS
ALONG THE DRY LINE/COOL FRONT AND EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ENTIRE LINE
SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE ADVANCING BOUNDARIES. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT AND
UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS...WITH CHCS DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS.

HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES FM CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIODS ARE VERY UNSETTLED AND WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODELS...DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
CR INIT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE THAN
THE GFS AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL.
STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAWN.
A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED
WILL BE A SCATTERED MID DECK DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
DECREASE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT EVEN IF THERE WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY HAVE THREE HOURS WHERE CONDITIONS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY
FIRE WEATHER...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 211944
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
244 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIGRATES EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWLEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 50KTS. GOOD MID LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED AND THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG.

THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS MT WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY LLVL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG ON WEDNESDAY IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW MOVING EAST FM THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE WINDIEST
CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WINDS WILL
DROP OFF FROM W/E AS THE SFC TROUGH AND DRY LINE PUSH EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEB/WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND H85 IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND H7 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AT
OR ABOVE 30KTS. CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR WIND ADVISORY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST/HWO AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND AN AXIS OF SFC DPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS KS INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEB. SREF INSTABILITY
PROGS INDICATE INSTABILITY AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH OPERATIONAL
MODELS HIGHER THAN THIS WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND DRY LINE. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AROUND 30KTS AND HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SPRING AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS. CONVECTION SHLD FOCUS
ALONG THE DRY LINE/COOL FRONT AND EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ENTIRE LINE
SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE ADVANCING BOUNDARIES. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT AND
UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS...WITH CHCS DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS.

HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES FM CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIODS ARE VERY UNSETTLED AND WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODELS...DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
CR INIT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE THAN
THE GFS AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL.
STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST
THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW
MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
DECREASE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT EVEN IF THERE WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY HAVE THREE HOURS WHERE CONDITIONS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 211724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE FRONT BUOYED BY 3MB PRESSURE RISES IS NOT MAKING QUICK
PROGRESS INTO/ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ALONG FOR THE RIDE.
UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN/AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST IT RAINED. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING INTO A MORE
STABILIZED AREA AS SEEN BY COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WOULD EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
GRADUALLY WANE WITH TIME. ATTEMPTED TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH WITH HOURLY GRIDS AND MOVE IT OUT OF THE REGION BY 9-10 AM.
LOOK FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY TAKE HOLD AND WITH GOOD
MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM THE AREA WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THAT WILL PUT A LITTLE COOLER EDGE ON THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. CLEARING JUST ABOUT TO ENTER DAWSON
COUNTY...WHICH IS ABOUT ON SCHEDULE.

THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENTION TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS AND
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. CURRENT
SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST IS TO QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT..AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. THOSE DEWPOINTS YIELD
LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. CONCERN IS THE SUB-30 DEWPOINTS ALREADY COMING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND HOW FAR SOUTH/HOW MUCH MIXING OF THOSE WILL
OCCUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...THIS COULD YIELD SOME SUB-20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...SUCH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD SPARK SOME FIRE CONCERNS AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL
NEARLY ALL DAY.

TONIGHT...ALL IS CLEAR WEATHERWISE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP AS A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TOUCHING THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...THEN THE NEXT WEEKENDS TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD /THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY/...WITH MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE ERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING...AT 12Z TUESDAY IS SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING
ORIGINATING IN ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST. THERE ISNT A LOT OF CHANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST BUT REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS/CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START THE TIGHTENS UP AS LOW
PRESSURE BETTER ORGANIZES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S/SERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S. EVEN WITH THAT
DIRECTION/SPEEDS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MOISTURE
RETURN BEING WEAK...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE FIRST ACTIVE TIME FRAME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD COMES TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN AXIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SLIDE ON THROUGH...AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING...WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS...MAINLY WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LLJ AND
THE BETTER ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO HELP DRIVE PRECIP...WITH SOME
MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS BEING RIGHT OVERHEAD...THUS PUSHING THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE TO OTHER AREAS. MODELS SHOWING INSTABILITY
BEING PRETTY MEAGER AS THIS IS GOING ON...SO HAVE THUNDER IN AS
ISOLATED.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY...KEPT SOME LINGERING
POPS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE AND LLJ...BUT EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...GIVING THE AREA A LULL FOR PART OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESP FOR THE SERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT...AND
SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ARE IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/FAR SRN CANADA AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LOW AND ONTO THE PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AND THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODELS VARY A TOUCH ON HOW FAR INTO THE CWA
THE FRONT GETS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS IT IN THE THE NWRN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH...AND THE
LLJ JET RAMPS BACK UP INTO THE AREA...INCREASING TO ANYWHERE FROM
50 TO 60 KTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. 50 TO 70 POPS ARE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING...BUT AFTER 06Z...TRIMMED POPS BACK IN THE
WEST...KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE E/SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CERTAINLY BETTER WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAN THE BATCH THIS PAST WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN THERE IS
SOME QUESTION WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.
WHILE THERE IS SRLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA ALREADY TUESDAY...MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NOT REALLY TAPPING INTO
BETTER GULF MOISTURE UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THEN IT
BECOMES AN ISSUE OF HOW MUCH CAN REALLY GET THIS FAR NORTH BY WED
AFTN/EVENING. THINK DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 60S IN
PLACE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING INTO THE 15-2500 J/KG RANGE AS
TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SET UP SHOWN BY MODELS...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK. AGREE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL/SFC DEWPOINTS WOULD KEEP
THIS PRIMARILY A HAIL/WIND THREAT. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS
TREND WITH FEATURES.

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CANADA BORDER
REGION...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SWUNG THROUGH THE
CWA...PUSHING PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ZONAL/NWRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
GIVING WAY TO SOME SHORTWAVE BROAD RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST. A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN THURS
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY CURRENT RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...WITH FRIDAY RANGING FROM NEAR
60 IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP
OFF.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS IN PLACE...BUT IT
WILL PRESENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
TIMING IS A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MORE OPEN
PATTERN AT 500MB COMPARED TO THE WOUND UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOWN BY THE GFS/GEM THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DO THE PRECIP
CHANCES COME MORE IN WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...OR IN ONE BIG SHOT MAINLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SHOWN BY THE GFS /WHICH IS ALSO
MUCH COLDER AND WOULD SUPPORT INSERTING A MENTION OF SNOW/. NOT
BUYING INTO THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THINGS TREND. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PERIOD BEING
THIS FAR OUT...THOUGH DID TAPER BACK THUNDER MENTION TO
ISOLATED...AND CONSIDERED PULLING IT ALL TOGETHER...BUT WILL WHAT
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS SHOW. EITHER WAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...ESP ACROSS THE NRN CWA. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR
BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SAT AND
LOWER/MID 50S FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST
THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW
MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB





000
FXUS63 KGID 211052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE FRONT BUOYED BY 3MB PRESSURE RISES IS NOT MAKING QUICK
PROGRESS INTO/ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ALONG FOR THE RIDE.
UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN/AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST IT RAINED. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING INTO A MORE
STABILIZED AREA AS SEEN BY COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WOULD EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
GRADUALLY WANE WITH TIME. ATTEMPTED TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH WITH HOURLY GRIDS AND MOVE IT OUT OF THE REGION BY 9-10 AM.
LOOK FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY TAKE HOLD AND WITH GOOD
MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM THE AREA WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THAT WILL PUT A LITTLE COOLER EDGE ON THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. CLEARING JUST ABOUT TO ENTER DAWSON
COUNTY...WHICH IS ABOUT ON SCHEDULE.

THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENTION TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS AND
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. CURRENT
SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST IS TO QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT..AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. THOSE DEPOINTS YIELD
LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. CONCERN IS THE SUB-30 DEWPOINTS ALREADY COMING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND HOW FAR SOUTH/HOW MUCH MIXING OF THOSE WILL
OCCUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...THIS COULD YIELD SOME SUB-20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...SUCH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD SPARK SOME FIRE CONCERNS AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL
NEARLY ALL DAY.

TONIGHT...ALL IS CLEAR WEATHERWISE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP AS A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TOUCHING THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...THEN THE NEXT WEEKENDS TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD /THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY/...WITH MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE ERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING...AT 12Z TUESDAY IS SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING
ORIGINATING IN ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST. THERE ISNT A LOT OF CHANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST BUT REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS/CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START THE TIGHTENS UP AS LOW
PRESSURE BETTER ORGANIZES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S/SERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S. EVEN WITH THAT
DIRECTION/SPEEDS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MOISTURE
RETURN BEING WEAK...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE FIRST ACTIVE TIME FRAME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD COMES TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN AXIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SLIDE ON THROUGH...AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING...WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS...MAINLY WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LLJ AND
THE BETTER ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO HELP DRIVE PRECIP...WITH SOME
MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS BEING RIGHT OVERHEAD...THUS PUSHING THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE TO OTHER AREAS. MODELS SHOWING INSTABILITY
BEING PRETTY MEAGER AS THIS IS GOING ON...SO HAVE THUNDER IN AS
ISOLATED.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY...KEPT SOME LINGERING
POPS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE AND LLJ...BUT EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...GIVING THE AREA A LULL FOR PART OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESP FOR THE SERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT...AND
SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ARE IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/FAR SRN CANADA AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LOW AND ONTO THE PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AND THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODELS VARY A TOUCH ON HOW FAR INTO THE CWA
THE FRONT GETS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS IT IN THE THE NWRN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH...AND THE
LLJ JET RAMPS BACK UP INTO THE AREA...INCREASING TO ANYWHERE FROM
50 TO 60 KTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. 50 TO 70 POPS ARE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING...BUT AFTER 06Z...TRIMMED POPS BACK IN THE
WEST...KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE E/SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CERTAINLY BETTER WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAN THE BATCH THIS PAST WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN THERE IS
SOME QUESTION WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.
WHILE THERE IS SRLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA ALREADY TUESDAY...MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NOT REALLY TAPPING INTO
BETTER GULF MOISTURE UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THEN IT
BECOMES AN ISSUE OF HOW MUCH CAN REALLY GET THIS FAR NORTH BY WED
AFTN/EVENING. THINK DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 60S IN
PLACE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING INTO THE 15-2500 J/KG RANGE AS
TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SET UP SHOWN BY MODELS...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK. AGREE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL/SFC DEWPOINTS WOULD KEEP
THIS PRIMARILY A HAIL/WIND THREAT. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS
TREND WITH FEATURES.

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CANADA BORDER
REGION...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SWUNG THROUGH THE
CWA...PUSHING PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ZONAL/NWRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
GIVING WAY TO SOME SHORTWAVE BROAD RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST. A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN THURS
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY CURRENT RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...WITH FRIDAY RANGING FROM NEAR
60 IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP
OFF.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS IN PLACE...BUT IT
WILL PRESENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
TIMING IS A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MORE OPEN
PATTERN AT 500MB COMPARED TO THE WOUND UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOWN BY THE GFS/GEM THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DO THE PRECIP
CHANCES COME MORE IN WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...OR IN ONE BIG SHOT MAINLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SHOWN BY THE GFS /WHICH IS ALSO
MUCH COLDER AND WOULD SUPPORT INSERTING A MENTION OF SNOW/. NOT
BUYING INTO THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THINGS TREND. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PERIOD BEING
THIS FAR OUT...THOUGH DID TAPER BACK THUNDER MENTION TO
ISOLATED...AND CONSIDERED PULLING IT ALL TOGETHER...BUT WILL WHAT
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS SHOW. EITHER WAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...ESP ACROSS THE NRN CWA. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR
BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SAT AND
LOWER/MID 50S FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NORTH WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE KGRI AIRPORT AREA AS OF 11Z AND
NOW WILL RAMP UP IN SPEED IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE COMPONENT SUSTAIN STRONGER
WINDS EARLY TODAY...BEFORE MIXING BECOMING THE MAIN PLAYER
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND TURN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL
HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF KGRI...AND CLEARING LINE IS ABOUT 80 MILES
TO THE WEST...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH NO VISIBILITY
OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 210928
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
428 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE FRONT BUOYED BY 3MB PRESSURE RISES IS NOT MAKING QUICK
PROGRESS INTO/ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ALONG FOR THE RIDE.
UNFORTUNATELY MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN/AND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST IT RAINED. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING INTO A MORE
STABILIZED AREA AS SEEN BY COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WOULD EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO
GRADUALLY WANE WITH TIME. ATTEMPTED TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH WITH HOURLY GRIDS AND MOVE IT OUT OF THE REGION BY 9-10 AM.
LOOK FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY TAKE HOLD AND WITH GOOD
MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM THE AREA WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THAT WILL PUT A LITTLE COOLER EDGE ON THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. CLEARING JUST ABOUT TO ENTER DAWSON
COUNTY...WHICH IS ABOUT ON SCHEDULE.

THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENTION TURNS TO FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS AND
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. CURRENT
SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST IS TO QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT..AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. THOSE DEPOINTS YIELD
LATE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. CONCERN IS THE SUB-30 DEWPOINTS ALREADY COMING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND HOW FAR SOUTH/HOW MUCH MIXING OF THOSE WILL
OCCUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...THIS COULD YIELD SOME SUB-20 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...SUCH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD SPARK SOME FIRE CONCERNS AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL
NEARLY ALL DAY.

TONIGHT...ALL IS CLEAR WEATHERWISE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP AS A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TOUCHING THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...THEN THE NEXT WEEKENDS TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD /THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY/...WITH MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE ERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING...AT 12Z TUESDAY IS SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING
ORIGINATING IN ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST. THERE ISNT A LOT OF CHANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST BUT REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS/CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START THE TIGHTENS UP AS LOW
PRESSURE BETTER ORGANIZES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S/SERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S. EVEN WITH THAT
DIRECTION/SPEEDS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MOISTURE
RETURN BEING WEAK...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE FIRST ACTIVE TIME FRAME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD COMES TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TUESDAY EVENING...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES. OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN AXIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SLIDE ON THROUGH...AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING...WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THERE
ARE SOME QUESTIONS...MAINLY WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LLJ AND
THE BETTER ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO HELP DRIVE PRECIP...WITH SOME
MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS BEING RIGHT OVERHEAD...THUS PUSHING THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE TO OTHER AREAS. MODELS SHOWING INSTABILITY
BEING PRETTY MEAGER AS THIS IS GOING ON...SO HAVE THUNDER IN AS
ISOLATED.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY...KEPT SOME LINGERING
POPS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE AND LLJ...BUT EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...GIVING THE AREA A LULL FOR PART OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...ESP FOR THE SERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT...AND
SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ARE IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/FAR SRN CANADA AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE LOW AND ONTO THE PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AND THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODELS VARY A TOUCH ON HOW FAR INTO THE CWA
THE FRONT GETS...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS IT IN THE THE NWRN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH...AND THE
LLJ JET RAMPS BACK UP INTO THE AREA...INCREASING TO ANYWHERE FROM
50 TO 60 KTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. 50 TO 70 POPS ARE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE EVENING...BUT AFTER 06Z...TRIMMED POPS BACK IN THE
WEST...KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE E/SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CERTAINLY BETTER WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAN THE BATCH THIS PAST WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN THERE IS
SOME QUESTION WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.
WHILE THERE IS SRLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA ALREADY TUESDAY...MODELS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS NOT REALLY TAPPING INTO
BETTER GULF MOISTURE UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO THEN IT
BECOMES AN ISSUE OF HOW MUCH CAN REALLY GET THIS FAR NORTH BY WED
AFTN/EVENING. THINK DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 60S IN
PLACE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING INTO THE 15-2500 J/KG RANGE AS
TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SET UP SHOWN BY MODELS...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK. AGREE WITH THE THINKING THAT
THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL/SFC DEWPOINTS WOULD KEEP
THIS PRIMARILY A HAIL/WIND THREAT. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS
TREND WITH FEATURES.

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE NRN PLAINS/CANADA BORDER
REGION...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SWUNG THROUGH THE
CWA...PUSHING PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ZONAL/NWRLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
GIVING WAY TO SOME SHORTWAVE BROAD RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST. A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES
INTO THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN THURS
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY CURRENT RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...WITH FRIDAY RANGING FROM NEAR
60 IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...SO NOT A SIGNIFICANT DROP
OFF.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS IN PLACE...BUT IT
WILL PRESENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
TIMING IS A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MORE OPEN
PATTERN AT 500MB COMPARED TO THE WOUND UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOWN BY THE GFS/GEM THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DO THE PRECIP
CHANCES COME MORE IN WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...OR IN ONE BIG SHOT MAINLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SHOWN BY THE GFS /WHICH IS ALSO
MUCH COLDER AND WOULD SUPPORT INSERTING A MENTION OF SNOW/. NOT
BUYING INTO THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THINGS TREND. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PERIOD BEING
THIS FAR OUT...THOUGH DID TAPER BACK THUNDER MENTION TO
ISOLATED...AND CONSIDERED PULLING IT ALL TOGETHER...BUT WILL WHAT
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS SHOW. EITHER WAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...ESP ACROSS THE NRN CWA. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND FOR
BOTH SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SAT AND
LOWER/MID 50S FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT BUT
THERE AREA A WEATHER CHANGES. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL OCCUR WITH
AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLATED TO PASS BY AROUND JUST PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY BE IN THE AREA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SAY FOR SURE THE
AIRPORT WILL ACTUALLY MEASURE ANY RAINFALL. HAVE INCLUDING THE
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...NORTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP DRAMATICALLY AND GUST OVER 25KTS BY LATE
MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 210523
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1223 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

JUST A SHORT UPDATE EARLIER TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ONE AREA WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWING CHURN EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS
AREA WILL SEE THE MOST EFFICIENT AND HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IS ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT MOVING INTO VALLEY COUNTY. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE AS THEY APPROACH
THE I-80 CORRIDOR PER HRRR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN
A BURST OF N WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS...WITH FASTER MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THE SLOWER/WEAKER
SRN STREAM WAS OVER THE SRN USA. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE E INTO ONTARIO THRU
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IT
TOO WILL MOVE E ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE NRN TROF. THE FLOW WILL
CONSOLIDATE TOMORROW AND BECOME NW AS A RIDGE ADVANCES THRU THE
WRN USA...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE W COAST MON
NIGHT.

SURFACE: THE REMNANTS OF A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO NEAR MCCOOK. A PACIFIC ORIGIN COOL FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SASK TROF/ AND WE JUST EMERGING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU ROUGHLY 6
PM.

MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK AT 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS. SO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE. THE ONLY REAL
ORGANIZATION WILL BE SMALL CLUSTERS WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY GENERATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COMMON COLD POOL.

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE TOO WEAK FOR STRONG STORMS. SO THAT
POTENTIAL THREAT WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE HWO AT 1153 AM.

QPF: UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WONT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BE
OF MUCH BENEFIT.

TONIGHT: THE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR END 7PM-9PM. WITH THE NEXT COOL
FRONT MOVING IN LATE...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
RENEWED SHWR ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY THUNDER?/ S AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
SCOURED FROM NW-SE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. USED BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.

TOMORROW: THE DAY WILL START WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE TRI-
CITIES S AND E. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING TO THE SE.
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE SHWRS OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA /E OF A LINE FROM YORK-NELSON-BELOIT/.

WIND: THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
DECREASING 6 HR PRES RISE MAXIMUM. COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE BURST
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT A 6-HR PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS FORENOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE /MOS AND RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS/
APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS. KNOCKED 1-2F OFF
AFTER EXAMINING FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT THIS WILL STILL KEEP MINIMUM
RH LEVELS JUST ABOVE 20%. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 3 HRS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS RH LEVELS
BOTTOM OUT.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE. USED THE
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE RECENTLY BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WE BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
THIS ENSURES A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONE
THING OF NOTE FOR TUESDAY IS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING IN THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MODELS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INFLUENCE HOW WINDY WE WILL BE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION PLACES THE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE SOUTH BREEZE AS A RESULT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE AND PRIME US FOR INCREASED
INSTABILITY FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
GOING TOWARD THE CONSRAW SOLUTION FOR LOWS BECAUSE OF THIS.

THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE RELATIVELY
NARROW WARM SECTOR. BY AFTERNOON A DRY LINE WILL PROBABLY SCRAPE
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PLENTY
OF BULK SHEAR...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH...AND LESS SO IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. WE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING...THERE IS A GENERAL
INDICATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR ON WHETHER
WE COULD GET SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS. NOT ENOUGH SEVERE
PARAMETERS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR ME TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT BUT
THERE AREA A WEATHER CHANGES. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL OCCUR WITH
AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLATED TO PASS BY AROUND JUST PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY BE IN THE AREA BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SAY FOR SURE THE
AIRPORT WILL ACTUALLY MEASURE ANY RAINFALL. HAVE INCLUDING THE
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...NORTH
WINDS WILL PICK UP DRAMATICALLY AND GUST OVER 25KTS BY LATE
MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ





000
FXUS63 KGID 202346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN
A BURST OF N WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS...WITH FASTER MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THE SLOWER/WEAKER
SRN STREAM WAS OVER THE SRN USA. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE E INTO ONTARIO THRU
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IT
TOO WILL MOVE E ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE NRN TROF. THE FLOW WILL
CONSOLIDATE TOMORROW AND BECOME NW AS A RIDGE ADVANCES THRU THE
WRN USA...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE W COAST MON
NIGHT.

SURFACE: THE REMNANTS OF A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO NEAR MCCOOK. A PACIFIC ORIGIN COOL FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SASK TROF/ AND WE JUST EMERGING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU ROUGHLY 6
PM.

MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK AT 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS. SO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE. THE ONLY REAL
ORGANIZATION WILL BE SMALL CLUSTERS WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY GENERATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COMMON COLD POOL.

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE TOO WEAK FOR STRONG STORMS. SO THAT
POTENTIAL THREAT WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE HWO AT 1153 AM.

QPF: UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WONT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BE
OF MUCH BENEFIT.

TONIGHT: THE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR END 7PM-9PM. WITH THE NEXT COOL
FRONT MOVING IN LATE...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
RENEWED SHWR ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY THUNDER?/ S AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
SCOURED FROM NW-SE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. USED BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.

TOMORROW: THE DAY WILL START WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE TRI-
CITIES S AND E. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING TO THE SE.
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE SHWRS OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA /E OF A LINE FROM YORK-NELSON-BELOIT/.

WIND: THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
DECREASING 6 HR PRES RISE MAXIMUM. COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE BURST
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT A 6-HR PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS FORENOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE /MOS AND RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS/
APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS. KNOCKED 1-2F OFF
AFTER EXAMINING FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT THIS WILL STILL KEEP MINIMUM
RH LEVELS JUST ABOVE 20%. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 3 HRS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS RH LEVELS
BOTTOM OUT.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE. USED THE
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE RECENTLY BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WE BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
THIS ENSURES A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONE
THING OF NOTE FOR TUESDAY IS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING IN THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MODELS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INFLUENCE HOW WINDY WE WILL BE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION PLACES THE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE SOUTH BREEZE AS A RESULT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE AND PRIME US FOR INCREASED
INSTABILITY FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
GOING TOWARD THE CONSRAW SOLUTION FOR LOWS BECAUSE OF THIS.

THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE RELATIVELY
NARROW WARM SECTOR. BY AFTERNOON A DRY LINE WILL PROBABLY SCRAPE
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PLENTY
OF BULK SHEAR...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH...AND LESS SO IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. WE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING...THERE IS A GENERAL
INDICATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR ON WHETHER
WE COULD GET SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS. NOT ENOUGH SEVERE
PARAMETERS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR ME TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THINK THAT AS THE SUN ANGLE GETS LOWER...THE STORMS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS HOUR WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINAL AROUND
21/15Z...USHERING IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 202024 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN
A BURST OF N WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS...WITH FASTER MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THE SLOWER/WEAKER
SRN STREAM WAS OVER THE SRN USA. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE E INTO ONTARIO THRU
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IT
TOO WILL MOVE E ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE NRN TROF. THE FLOW WILL
CONSOLIDATE TOMORROW AND BECOME NW AS A RIDGE ADVANCES THRU THE
WRN USA...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE W COAST MON
NIGHT.

SURFACE: THE REMNANTS OF A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO NEAR MCCOOK. A PACIFIC ORIGIN COOL FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SASK TROF/ AND WE JUST EMERGING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU ROUGHLY 6
PM.

MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK AT 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS. SO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE. THE ONLY REAL
ORGANIZATION WILL BE SMALL CLUSTERS WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY GENERATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COMMON COLD POOL.

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE TOO WEAK FOR STRONG STORMS. SO THAT
POTENTIAL THREAT WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE HWO AT 1153 AM.

QPF: UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WONT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BE
OF MUCH BENEFIT.

TONIGHT: THE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR END 7PM-9PM. WITH THE NEXT COOL
FRONT MOVING IN LATE...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
RENEWED SHWR ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY THUNDER?/ S AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
SCOURED FROM NW-SE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. USED BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.

TOMORROW: THE DAY WILL START WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE TRI-
CITIES S AND E. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING TO THE SE.
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE SHWRS OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA /E OF A LINE FROM YORK-NELSON-BELOIT/.

WIND: THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
DECREASING 6 HR PRES RISE MAXIMUM. COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE BURST
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT A 6-HR PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS FORENOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE /MOS AND RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS/
APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS. KNOCKED 1-2F OFF
AFTER EXAMINING FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT THIS WILL STILL KEEP MINIMUM
RH LEVELS JUST ABOVE 20%. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 3 HRS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS RH LEVELS
BOTTOM OUT.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE. USED THE
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE RECENTLY BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WE BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
THIS ENSURES A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONE
THING OF NOTE FOR TUESDAY IS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING IN THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MODELS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INFLUENCE HOW WINDY WE WILL BE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION PLACES THE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE SOUTH BREEZE AS A RESULT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE AND PRIME US FOR INCREASED
INSTABILITY FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
GOING TOWARD THE CONSRAW SOLUTION FOR LOWS BECAUSE OF THIS.

THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE RELATIVELY
NARROW WARM SECTOR. BY AFTERNOON A DRY LINE WILL PROBABLY SCRAPE
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PLENTY
OF BULK SHEAR...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH...AND LESS SO IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. WE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING...THERE IS A GENERAL
INDICATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR ON WHETHER
WE COULD GET SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS. NOT ENOUGH SEVERE
PARAMETERS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR ME TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TEMPORARY MVFR SHWR/TSTM. AT THIS TIME THE RISK
IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF...BUT WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

TONIGHT: QUITE A BIT OF MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE
LEFT AROUND FROM SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. A WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME...WITH A WSHFT TO NW.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON THRU 18Z: VFR AND BASICALLY SKC. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N...
INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 202024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN
A BURST OF N WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS...WITH FASTER MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THE SLOWER/WEAKER
SRN STREAM WAS OVER THE SRN USA. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE E INTO ONTARIO THRU
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IT
TOO WILL MOVE E ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE NRN TROF. THE FLOW WILL
CONSOLIDATE TOMORROW AND BECOME NW AS A RIDGE ADVANCES THRU THE
WRN USA...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE W COAST MON
NIGHT.

SURFACE: THE REMNANTS OF A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO NEAR MCCOOK. A PACIFIC ORIGIN COOL FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SASK TROF/ AND WE JUST EMERGING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU ROUGHLY 6
PM.

MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK AT 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS. SO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE. THE ONLY REAL
ORGANIZATION WILL BE SMALL CLUSTERS WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY GENERATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COMMON COLD POOL.

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE TOO WEAK FOR STRONG STORMS. SO THAT
POTENTIAL THREAT WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE HWO AT 1153 AM.

QPF: UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WONT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BE
OF MUCH BENEFIT.

TONIGHT: THE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR END 7PM-9PM. WITH THE NEXT COOL
FRONT MOVING IN LATE...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
RENEWED SHWR ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY THUNDER?/ S AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
SCOURED FROM NW-SE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. USED BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.

TOMORROW: THE DAY WILL START WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE TRI-
CITIES S AND E WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING TO THE SE. COULD STILL SEE
A COULD SHWRS OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA /E OF A LINE
FROM YORK-NELSON-BELOIT/.

WIND: THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
DECREASING 6 HR PRES RISE MAXIMUM. COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE BURST
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT A 6-HR PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS FORENOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE /MOS AND RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS/
APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS. KNOCKED 1-2F OFF
AFTER EXAMINING FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT THIS WILL STILL KEEP MINIMUM
RH LEVELS JUST ABOVE 20%. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 3 HRS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS RH LEVELS
BOTTOM OUT.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE. USED THE
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE RECENTLY BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 4 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TEMPORARY MVFR SHWR/TSTM. AT THIS TIME THE RISK
IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF...BUT WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

TONIGHT: QUITE A BIT OF MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE
LEFT AROUND FROM SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. A WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME...WITH A WSHFT TO NW.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON THRU 18Z: VFR AND BASICALLY SKC. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N...
INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 201732
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE 00Z NAM 4KM WRF-ARW HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT HAS EVOLVED
THIS MORNING...IE VERY LITTLE. THE BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING N
FROM N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB IS DISSIPATING.MEANWHILE...
ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM LEXINGTON-ORD-SANDHILLS.
A CHECK OF FCST REFLECTIVITY COMING IN FROM THE NEW 12Z NAM 4KM
HAS TOO MUCH COVERAGE COMPARED TO REALITY.

STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY S OF I-80 AND
ESPECIALLY S OF HWY 6. CONVECTIVE TEMP IS ABOUT 71F AND WE ARE
CLOSE NOW. SO CU SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY...ESPECIALLY WITH
MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MID-
LVL CLOUDS MOVING THRU WILL HINDER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.

RAP/HRRR MLCAPE WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ON THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LESS THAN 15 KTS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING. SO THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REMOVE THAT
WORDING.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE TOWARD THE NE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1" AND THIS IS 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SO SOME DECENT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY LOCALIZED GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SEND AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. THE 13Z FCST TEMPS
STARTED TOO SHARP OF A CLIMB COMPARED TO OBS. SO THEY WERE TRIMMED
BACK. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO LOAD THE CONSENSUS OF THE HI-
RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS THRU 00Z. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
HAVE CREPT INTO THE FAR NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA /SEE OBS AT
ORD-BROKEN BOW-N PLATTE/. SHORT-TERM MODELING HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY IS NOTED EXTENDING
ALONG TWO BRANCHES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH ONE BRANCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 35000FT AGL PER
00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE HELPING PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. AS OF 08Z THIS BOUNDARY WAS
NOTED FROM NEAR KBVN...TO NEAR KEAR...TO NEAR KHLC. THE RESULTANT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD NOTED AT LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN BY 00Z MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS SHORT WAVE...IS INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AND AS A
RESULT...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST/NORTHEAST AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT CHANCES FOR  WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 06Z...AND WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
~500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DOES HINT AT VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TODAY...BUT WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO IN
CASE THE GFS VERIFIES THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS FOR TODAY WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE READINGS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WITH THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM FADING INTO THE REARVIEW MIRROR
VERY EARLY IN THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL
INCREASINGLY TURN TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT STILL LOOKS TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE POTENTIAL...KEY WORD POTENTIAL...STILL EXISTS FOR A ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WANT TO
AGAIN CAUTION THAT THERE ARE A TON OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE
THIS IS A SLAM-DUNK SEVERE EVENT...AS IF ANYTHING THE LATEST 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE A LITTLE MORE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ESPECIALLY REGARDING
SURFACE FRONT POSITIONS AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE...AND AT LEAST
FOR NOW THE GFS/GEM PAINT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM
SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT LESS-SO. ALONG
THOSE SAME LINES...THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
THUS DOWNPLAYS THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WIND POTENTIAL. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES LEANING TOWARD THE WINDIER
SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). LOOKING BEYOND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD ON
SATURDAY FOR THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THIS ONE WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MORE-SO THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...OR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY. ALTHOUGH
IT IS FAR...FAR TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL...WILL
CONTINUE A MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS MUCH OF THE
CWA IS STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 22-26 PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. OF COURSE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST MODEST RAINFALL BEFORE
THEN...ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE THREAT COULD BE LARGELY MITIGATED
ANYWAY. NO MATTER...DO NOT FORESEE FIRE PARAMETERS DROPPING INTO
ACTUAL CRITICAL RANGE AND THUS REQUIRING A HEADLINE.

NOW GETTING INTO THE DETAILS AND TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME/MONDAY NIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA
RIGHT AWAY ON MONDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAVE LINGERED ONLY A SLIGHT 20 POP WITHIN THIS AREA TO
COVER THE POSSIBLE LAST DEPARTING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONLY HAVE THIS POP IN PLACE THROUGH
10AM/15Z...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...ALTHOUGH ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NEW 06Z
NAM TRIES TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER CLOSER TO NOON IN KS ZONES.
ALSO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION WITH THIS POST-SUNRISE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO COULD STILL LINGER IN THIS AREA...AND WILL
DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF ITS WORTHY OF A FORMAL
INCLUSION. AT ANY RATE...ONCE THIS MONDAY MORNING ACTIVITY FINALLY
VACATES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT CARRIES A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF REMAINING DRY AS THE CENTER OF THE SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS THE DAY OVER EASTERN KS STEADILY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A BROAD...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURE RISES PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 16-23 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO SLIGHTLY
OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE SPEEDS WERE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE BREEZES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8 MPH OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS GRADUALLY CHANGES DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT PLENTY OF SUN WORKS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...NUDGED UP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE
FROM NEAR-70 NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY COVERED
ABOVE...THESE MILD TEMPS COULD TEAM WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPS...AND AGAIN ASSUMING NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD SEE A DECENT DROP INTO THE LOW 40S MOST
AREAS...WITH COLDER UPPER 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL DAWSON TO
VALLEY/GREELEY CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRY DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PICTURE PER THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATES THAT THE HEART OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP-WISE...ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 100+ MILES WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SO THE DAY IS DRY. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB CRANKS UP OVER THE
AREA...TRANSPORTING AT LEAST LIMITED MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...AS THE NAM ONLY ADVERTISES CAPE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER UP TO MAYBE 300-400 J/KG. POP-WISE...HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT 20S EVERYWHERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH 30S THEN PAINTED
IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MUCH OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY COULD LARGELY FOCUS EAST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS THE FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR NOW. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CRANK UP ALONG A HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING MOST OF THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE FAR
WEST. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. DURING THE
DAY...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH LOW-MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OPENING LONG TERM PARAGRAPH ABOVE
ALREADY TOUCHED ON SOME OF THE ISSUES REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ON THE BASIC MID- UPPER PATTERN
HOWEVER...A RATHER STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN SOME
WAY...SHAPE OR FORM. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH SHARPENS A FAIRLY STOUT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE
THROUGH WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
ROUGHLY 992MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
ONE BIG QUESTION REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
INVOLVES WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAYTIME CONVECTION AROUND THAT
COULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...OR WHETHER THERE MIGHT
BE ONE MAIN SURFACE-BASED SHOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FIRING
ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND MOVING EAST. FOR SURE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40+KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS IF OTHER FACTORS COME TOGETHER. NUDGED UP DAYTIME POPS
TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS...BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST 50-60
POPS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
CONVECTION MORPHING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. ALSO AS ALREADY TOUCHED
ON EARLIER...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD STRONGLY SUPPORT ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SO THIS
COULD BE AN ISSUE NO MATTER HOW HIGH OR LOW THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS
UP BEING. TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION GIVEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT CHANGED HIGHS LITTLE WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW
80S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
48-HOUR TIME FRAME VOID OF POPS...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT. ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE NEXT
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
DID NOT BITE ON THIS QUITE YET. TEMPS ON BOTH DAYS WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS MAINLY 65-70.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS EARLIER TOUCHED ON...ITS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
THAT BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARY AIMED MAYBE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH MAINLY LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TEMPORARY MVFR SHWR/TSTM. AT THIS TIME THE RISK
IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF...BUT WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

TONIGHT: QUITE A BIT OF MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE
LEFT AROUND FROM SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. A WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME...WITH A WSHFT TO NW.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON THRU 18Z: VFR AND BASICALLY SKC. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N...
INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 201647
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1147 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE 00Z NAM 4KM WRF-ARW HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT HAS EVOLVE
THIS MORNING...IE VERY LITTLE. THE BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN LIFTING N
FROM N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB IS DISSIPATING.MEANWHILE...
ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM LEXINGTON-ORD-SANDHILLS.
A CHECK OF FCST REFLECTIVITY COMING IN FROM THE NEW 12Z NAM 4KM
HAS TOO MUCH COVERAGE COMPARED TO REALITY.

STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY S OF I-80 AND
ESPECIALLY S OF HWY 6. CONVECTIVE TEMP IS ABOUT 71F AND WE ARE
CLOSE NOW. SO CU SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY...ESPECIALLY WITH
MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO.

RAP/HRRR MLCAPE WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ON THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LESS THAN 15 KTS...DO NOT ENVISION ANY STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING. SO THE HWO WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REMOVE THAT
WORDING.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE TOWARD THE NE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1" AND THIS IS 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SO SOME DECENT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY LOCALIZED GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SEND AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. THE 13Z FCST TEMPS
STARTED TOO SHARP OF A CLIMB COMPARED TO OBS. SO THEY WERE TRIMMED
BACK. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO LOAD THE CONSENSUS OF THE HI-
RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS THRU 00Z. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
HAVE CREPT INTO THE FAR NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA /SEE OBS AT
ORD-BROKEN BOW-N PLATTE/. SHORT-TERM MODELING HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY IS NOTED EXTENDING
ALONG TWO BRANCHES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH ONE BRANCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 35000FT AGL PER
00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE HELPING PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. AS OF 08Z THIS BOUNDARY WAS
NOTED FROM NEAR KBVN...TO NEAR KEAR...TO NEAR KHLC. THE RESULTANT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD NOTED AT LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN BY 00Z MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS SHORT WAVE...IS INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AND AS A
RESULT...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST/NORTHEAST AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT CHANCES FOR  WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 06Z...AND WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
~500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DOES HINT AT VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TODAY...BUT WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO IN
CASE THE GFS VERIFIES THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS FOR TODAY WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE READINGS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WITH THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM FADING INTO THE REARVIEW MIRROR
VERY EARLY IN THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL
INCREASINGLY TURN TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT STILL LOOKS TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE POTENTIAL...KEY WORD POTENTIAL...STILL EXISTS FOR A ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WANT TO
AGAIN CAUTION THAT THERE ARE A TON OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE
THIS IS A SLAM-DUNK SEVERE EVENT...AS IF ANYTHING THE LATEST 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE A LITTLE MORE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ESPECIALLY REGARDING
SURFACE FRONT POSITIONS AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE...AND AT LEAST
FOR NOW THE GFS/GEM PAINT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM
SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT LESS-SO. ALONG
THOSE SAME LINES...THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
THUS DOWNPLAYS THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WIND POTENTIAL. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES LEANING TOWARD THE WINDIER
SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). LOOKING BEYOND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD ON
SATURDAY FOR THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THIS ONE WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MORE-SO THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...OR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY. ALTHOUGH
IT IS FAR...FAR TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL...WILL
CONTINUE A MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS MUCH OF THE
CWA IS STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 22-26 PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. OF COURSE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST MODEST RAINFALL BEFORE
THEN...ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE THREAT COULD BE LARGELY MITIGATED
ANYWAY. NO MATTER...DO NOT FORESEE FIRE PARAMETERS DROPPING INTO
ACTUAL CRITICAL RANGE AND THUS REQUIRING A HEADLINE.

NOW GETTING INTO THE DETAILS AND TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME/MONDAY NIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA
RIGHT AWAY ON MONDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAVE LINGERED ONLY A SLIGHT 20 POP WITHIN THIS AREA TO
COVER THE POSSIBLE LAST DEPARTING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONLY HAVE THIS POP IN PLACE THROUGH
10AM/15Z...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...ALTHOUGH ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NEW 06Z
NAM TRIES TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER CLOSER TO NOON IN KS ZONES.
ALSO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION WITH THIS POST-SUNRISE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO COULD STILL LINGER IN THIS AREA...AND WILL
DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF ITS WORTHY OF A FORMAL
INCLUSION. AT ANY RATE...ONCE THIS MONDAY MORNING ACTIVITY FINALLY
VACATES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT CARRIES A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF REMAINING DRY AS THE CENTER OF THE SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS THE DAY OVER EASTERN KS STEADILY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A BROAD...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURE RISES PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 16-23 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO SLIGHTLY
OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE SPEEDS WERE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE BREEZES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8 MPH OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS GRADUALLY CHANGES DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT PLENTY OF SUN WORKS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...NUDGED UP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE
FROM NEAR-70 NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY COVERED
ABOVE...THESE MILD TEMPS COULD TEAM WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPS...AND AGAIN ASSUMING NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD SEE A DECENT DROP INTO THE LOW 40S MOST
AREAS...WITH COLDER UPPER 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL DAWSON TO
VALLEY/GREELEY CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRY DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PICTURE PER THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATES THAT THE HEART OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP-WISE...ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 100+ MILES WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SO THE DAY IS DRY. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB CRANKS UP OVER THE
AREA...TRANSPORTING AT LEAST LIMITED MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...AS THE NAM ONLY ADVERTISES CAPE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER UP TO MAYBE 300-400 J/KG. POP-WISE...HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT 20S EVERYWHERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH 30S THEN PAINTED
IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MUCH OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY COULD LARGELY FOCUS EAST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS THE FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR NOW. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CRANK UP ALONG A HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING MOST OF THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE FAR
WEST. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. DURING THE
DAY...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH LOW-MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OPENING LONG TERM PARAGRAPH ABOVE
ALREADY TOUCHED ON SOME OF THE ISSUES REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ON THE BASIC MID- UPPER PATTERN
HOWEVER...A RATHER STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN SOME
WAY...SHAPE OR FORM. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH SHARPENS A FAIRLY STOUT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE
THROUGH WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
ROUGHLY 992MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
ONE BIG QUESTION REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
INVOLVES WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAYTIME CONVECTION AROUND THAT
COULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...OR WHETHER THERE MIGHT
BE ONE MAIN SURFACE-BASED SHOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FIRING
ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND MOVING EAST. FOR SURE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40+KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS IF OTHER FACTORS COME TOGETHER. NUDGED UP DAYTIME POPS
TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS...BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST 50-60
POPS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
CONVECTION MORPHING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. ALSO AS ALREADY TOUCHED
ON EARLIER...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD STRONGLY SUPPORT ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SO THIS
COULD BE AN ISSUE NO MATTER HOW HIGH OR LOW THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS
UP BEING. TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION GIVEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT CHANGED HIGHS LITTLE WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW
80S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
48-HOUR TIME FRAME VOID OF POPS...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT. ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE NEXT
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
DID NOT BITE ON THIS QUITE YET. TEMPS ON BOTH DAYS WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS MAINLY 65-70.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS EARLIER TOUCHED ON...ITS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
THAT BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARY AIMED MAYBE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH MAINLY LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WITH A BASE IN THE 8000-10000FT AGL RANGE...GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN NATURE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT GRI
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAF. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AS A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD BY 02Z...AND A NORTHEAST
WIND TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 201325
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
825 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SEND AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. THE 13Z FCST TEMPS
STARTED TOO SHARP OF A CLIMB COMPARED TO OBS. SO THEY WERE TRIMMED
BACK. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO LOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE
HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS THRU 00Z. DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S HAVE CREPT INTO THE FAR NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA /SEE OBS AT
ORD-BROKEN BOW-N PLATTE/. SHORT-TERM MODELING HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY IS NOTED EXTENDING
ALONG TWO BRANCHES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH ONE BRANCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 35000FT AGL PER
00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE HELPING PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. AS OF 08Z THIS BOUNDARY WAS
NOTED FROM NEAR KBVN...TO NEAR KEAR...TO NEAR KHLC. THE RESULTANT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD NOTED AT LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN BY 00Z MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS SHORT WAVE...IS INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AND AS A
RESULT...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST/NORTHEAST AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT CHANCES FOR  WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 06Z...AND WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
~500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DOES HINT AT VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TODAY...BUT WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO IN
CASE THE GFS VERIFIES THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS FOR TODAY WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE READINGS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WITH THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM FADING INTO THE REARVIEW MIRROR
VERY EARLY IN THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL
INCREASINGLY TURN TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT STILL LOOKS TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE POTENTIAL...KEY WORD POTENTIAL...STILL EXISTS FOR A ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WANT TO
AGAIN CAUTION THAT THERE ARE A TON OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE
THIS IS A SLAM-DUNK SEVERE EVENT...AS IF ANYTHING THE LATEST 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE A LITTLE MORE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ESPECIALLY REGARDING
SURFACE FRONT POSITIONS AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE...AND AT LEAST
FOR NOW THE GFS/GEM PAINT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM
SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT LESS-SO. ALONG
THOSE SAME LINES...THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
THUS DOWNPLAYS THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WIND POTENTIAL. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES LEANING TOWARD THE WINDIER
SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). LOOKING BEYOND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD ON
SATURDAY FOR THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THIS ONE WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MORE-SO THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...OR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY. ALTHOUGH
IT IS FAR...FAR TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL...WILL
CONTINUE A MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS MUCH OF THE
CWA IS STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 22-26 PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. OF COURSE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST MODEST RAINFALL BEFORE
THEN...ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE THREAT COULD BE LARGELY MITIGATED
ANYWAY. NO MATTER...DO NOT FORESEE FIRE PARAMETERS DROPPING INTO
ACTUAL CRITICAL RANGE AND THUS REQUIRING A HEADLINE.

NOW GETTING INTO THE DETAILS AND TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME/MONDAY NIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA
RIGHT AWAY ON MONDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAVE LINGERED ONLY A SLIGHT 20 POP WITHIN THIS AREA TO
COVER THE POSSIBLE LAST DEPARTING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONLY HAVE THIS POP IN PLACE THROUGH
10AM/15Z...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...ALTHOUGH ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NEW 06Z
NAM TRIES TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER CLOSER TO NOON IN KS ZONES.
ALSO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION WITH THIS POST-SUNRISE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO COULD STILL LINGER IN THIS AREA...AND WILL
DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF ITS WORTHY OF A FORMAL
INCLUSION. AT ANY RATE...ONCE THIS MONDAY MORNING ACTIVITY FINALLY
VACATES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT CARRIES A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF REMAINING DRY AS THE CENTER OF THE SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS THE DAY OVER EASTERN KS STEADILY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A BROAD...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURE RISES PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 16-23 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO SLIGHTLY
OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE SPEEDS WERE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE BREEZES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8 MPH OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS GRADUALLY CHANGES DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT PLENTY OF SUN WORKS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...NUDGED UP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE
FROM NEAR-70 NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY COVERED
ABOVE...THESE MILD TEMPS COULD TEAM WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPS...AND AGAIN ASSUMING NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD SEE A DECENT DROP INTO THE LOW 40S MOST
AREAS...WITH COLDER UPPER 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL DAWSON TO
VALLEY/GREELEY CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRY DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PICTURE PER THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATES THAT THE HEART OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP-WISE...ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 100+ MILES WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SO THE DAY IS DRY. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB CRANKS UP OVER THE
AREA...TRANSPORTING AT LEAST LIMITED MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...AS THE NAM ONLY ADVERTISES CAPE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER UP TO MAYBE 300-400 J/KG. POP-WISE...HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT 20S EVERYWHERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH 30S THEN PAINTED
IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MUCH OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY COULD LARGELY FOCUS EAST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS THE FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR NOW. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CRANK UP ALONG A HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING MOST OF THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE FAR
WEST. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. DURING THE
DAY...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH LOW-MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OPENING LONG TERM PARAGRAPH ABOVE
ALREADY TOUCHED ON SOME OF THE ISSUES REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ON THE BASIC MID- UPPER PATTERN
HOWEVER...A RATHER STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN SOME
WAY...SHAPE OR FORM. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH SHARPENS A FAIRLY STOUT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE
THROUGH WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
ROUGHLY 992MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
ONE BIG QUESTION REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
INVOLVES WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAYTIME CONVECTION AROUND THAT
COULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...OR WHETHER THERE MIGHT
BE ONE MAIN SURFACE-BASED SHOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FIRING
ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND MOVING EAST. FOR SURE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40+KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS IF OTHER FACTORS COME TOGETHER. NUDGED UP DAYTIME POPS
TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS...BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST 50-60
POPS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
CONVECTION MORPHING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. ALSO AS ALREADY TOUCHED
ON EARLIER...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD STRONGLY SUPPORT ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SO THIS
COULD BE AN ISSUE NO MATTER HOW HIGH OR LOW THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS
UP BEING. TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION GIVEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT CHANGED HIGHS LITTLE WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW
80S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
48-HOUR TIME FRAME VOID OF POPS...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT. ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE NEXT
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
DID NOT BITE ON THIS QUITE YET. TEMPS ON BOTH DAYS WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS MAINLY 65-70.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS EARLIER TOUCHED ON...ITS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
THAT BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARY AIMED MAYBE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH MAINLY LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WITH A BASE IN THE 8000-10000FT AGL RANGE...GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN NATURE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT GRI
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAF. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AS A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD BY 02Z...AND A NORTHEAST
WIND TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 201325 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
825 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

SEND AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST UPDATE. THE 13Z FCST TEMPS
STARTED TOO SHARP OF A CLIMB COMPARED TO OBS. SO THEY WERE TRIMMED
BACK. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO LOAD THE CONSENSUS OF THE HI-
RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS THRU 00Z. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
HAVE CREPT INTO THE FAR NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA /SEE OBS AT
ORD-BROKEN BOW-N PLATTE/. SHORT-TERM MODELING HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY IS NOTED EXTENDING
ALONG TWO BRANCHES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH ONE BRANCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 35000FT AGL PER
00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE HELPING PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. AS OF 08Z THIS BOUNDARY WAS
NOTED FROM NEAR KBVN...TO NEAR KEAR...TO NEAR KHLC. THE RESULTANT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD NOTED AT LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN BY 00Z MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS SHORT WAVE...IS INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AND AS A
RESULT...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST/NORTHEAST AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT CHANCES FOR  WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 06Z...AND WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
~500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DOES HINT AT VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TODAY...BUT WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO IN
CASE THE GFS VERIFIES THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS FOR TODAY WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE READINGS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WITH THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM FADING INTO THE REARVIEW MIRROR
VERY EARLY IN THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL
INCREASINGLY TURN TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT STILL LOOKS TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE POTENTIAL...KEY WORD POTENTIAL...STILL EXISTS FOR A ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WANT TO
AGAIN CAUTION THAT THERE ARE A TON OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE
THIS IS A SLAM-DUNK SEVERE EVENT...AS IF ANYTHING THE LATEST 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE A LITTLE MORE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ESPECIALLY REGARDING
SURFACE FRONT POSITIONS AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE...AND AT LEAST
FOR NOW THE GFS/GEM PAINT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM
SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT LESS-SO. ALONG
THOSE SAME LINES...THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
THUS DOWNPLAYS THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WIND POTENTIAL. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES LEANING TOWARD THE WINDIER
SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). LOOKING BEYOND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD ON
SATURDAY FOR THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THIS ONE WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MORE-SO THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...OR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY. ALTHOUGH
IT IS FAR...FAR TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL...WILL
CONTINUE A MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS MUCH OF THE
CWA IS STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 22-26 PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. OF COURSE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST MODEST RAINFALL BEFORE
THEN...ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE THREAT COULD BE LARGELY MITIGATED
ANYWAY. NO MATTER...DO NOT FORESEE FIRE PARAMETERS DROPPING INTO
ACTUAL CRITICAL RANGE AND THUS REQUIRING A HEADLINE.

NOW GETTING INTO THE DETAILS AND TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME/MONDAY NIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA
RIGHT AWAY ON MONDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAVE LINGERED ONLY A SLIGHT 20 POP WITHIN THIS AREA TO
COVER THE POSSIBLE LAST DEPARTING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONLY HAVE THIS POP IN PLACE THROUGH
10AM/15Z...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...ALTHOUGH ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NEW 06Z
NAM TRIES TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER CLOSER TO NOON IN KS ZONES.
ALSO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION WITH THIS POST-SUNRISE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO COULD STILL LINGER IN THIS AREA...AND WILL
DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF ITS WORTHY OF A FORMAL
INCLUSION. AT ANY RATE...ONCE THIS MONDAY MORNING ACTIVITY FINALLY
VACATES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT CARRIES A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF REMAINING DRY AS THE CENTER OF THE SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS THE DAY OVER EASTERN KS STEADILY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A BROAD...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURE RISES PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 16-23 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO SLIGHTLY
OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE SPEEDS WERE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE BREEZES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8 MPH OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS GRADUALLY CHANGES DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT PLENTY OF SUN WORKS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...NUDGED UP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE
FROM NEAR-70 NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY COVERED
ABOVE...THESE MILD TEMPS COULD TEAM WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPS...AND AGAIN ASSUMING NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD SEE A DECENT DROP INTO THE LOW 40S MOST
AREAS...WITH COLDER UPPER 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL DAWSON TO
VALLEY/GREELEY CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRY DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PICTURE PER THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATES THAT THE HEART OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP-WISE...ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 100+ MILES WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SO THE DAY IS DRY. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB CRANKS UP OVER THE
AREA...TRANSPORTING AT LEAST LIMITED MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...AS THE NAM ONLY ADVERTISES CAPE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER UP TO MAYBE 300-400 J/KG. POP-WISE...HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT 20S EVERYWHERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH 30S THEN PAINTED
IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MUCH OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY COULD LARGELY FOCUS EAST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS THE FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR NOW. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CRANK UP ALONG A HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING MOST OF THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE FAR
WEST. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. DURING THE
DAY...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH LOW-MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OPENING LONG TERM PARAGRAPH ABOVE
ALREADY TOUCHED ON SOME OF THE ISSUES REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ON THE BASIC MID- UPPER PATTERN
HOWEVER...A RATHER STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN SOME
WAY...SHAPE OR FORM. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH SHARPENS A FAIRLY STOUT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE
THROUGH WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
ROUGHLY 992MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
ONE BIG QUESTION REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
INVOLVES WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAYTIME CONVECTION AROUND THAT
COULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...OR WHETHER THERE MIGHT
BE ONE MAIN SURFACE-BASED SHOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FIRING
ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND MOVING EAST. FOR SURE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40+KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS IF OTHER FACTORS COME TOGETHER. NUDGED UP DAYTIME POPS
TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS...BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST 50-60
POPS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
CONVECTION MORPHING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. ALSO AS ALREADY TOUCHED
ON EARLIER...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD STRONGLY SUPPORT ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SO THIS
COULD BE AN ISSUE NO MATTER HOW HIGH OR LOW THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS
UP BEING. TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION GIVEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT CHANGED HIGHS LITTLE WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW
80S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
48-HOUR TIME FRAME VOID OF POPS...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT. ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE NEXT
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
DID NOT BITE ON THIS QUITE YET. TEMPS ON BOTH DAYS WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS MAINLY 65-70.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS EARLIER TOUCHED ON...ITS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
THAT BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARY AIMED MAYBE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH MAINLY LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WITH A BASE IN THE 8000-10000FT AGL RANGE...GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN NATURE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT GRI
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAF. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AS A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD BY 02Z...AND A NORTHEAST
WIND TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 201051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY IS NOTED EXTENDING
ALONG TWO BRANCHES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH ONE BRANCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 35000FT AGL PER
00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE HELPING PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. AS OF 08Z THIS BOUNDARY WAS
NOTED FROM NEAR KBVN...TO NEAR KEAR...TO NEAR KHLC. THE RESULTANT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD NOTED AT LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN BY 00Z MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS SHORT WAVE...IS INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AND AS A
RESULT...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST/NORTHEAST AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT CHANCES FOR  WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 06Z...AND WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
~500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DOES HINT AT VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TODAY...BUT WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO IN
CASE THE GFS VERIFIES THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS FOR TODAY WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE READINGS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WITH THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM FADING INTO THE REARVIEW MIRROR
VERY EARLY IN THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL
INCREASINGLY TURN TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT STILL LOOKS TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE POTENTIAL...KEY WORD POTENTIAL...STILL EXISTS FOR A ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WANT TO
AGAIN CAUTION THAT THERE ARE A TON OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE
THIS IS A SLAM-DUNK SEVERE EVENT...AS IF ANYTHING THE LATEST 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE A LITTLE MORE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ESPECIALLY REGARDING
SURFACE FRONT POSITIONS AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE...AND AT LEAST
FOR NOW THE GFS/GEM PAINT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM
SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT LESS-SO. ALONG
THOSE SAME LINES...THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
THUS DOWNPLAYS THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WIND POTENTIAL. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES LEANING TOWARD THE WINDIER
SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). LOOKING BEYOND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD ON
SATURDAY FOR THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THIS ONE WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MORE-SO THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...OR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY. ALTHOUGH
IT IS FAR...FAR TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL...WILL
CONTINUE A MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS MUCH OF THE
CWA IS STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 22-26 PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. OF COURSE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST MODEST RAINFALL BEFORE
THEN...ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE THREAT COULD BE LARGELY MITIGATED
ANYWAY. NO MATTER...DO NOT FORESEE FIRE PARAMETERS DROPPING INTO
ACTUAL CRITICAL RANGE AND THUS REQUIRING A HEADLINE.

NOW GETTING INTO THE DETAILS AND TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME/MONDAY NIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA
RIGHT AWAY ON MONDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAVE LINGERED ONLY A SLIGHT 20 POP WITHIN THIS AREA TO
COVER THE POSSIBLE LAST DEPARTING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONLY HAVE THIS POP IN PLACE THROUGH
10AM/15Z...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...ALTHOUGH ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NEW 06Z
NAM TRIES TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER CLOSER TO NOON IN KS ZONES.
ALSO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION WITH THIS POST-SUNRISE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO COULD STILL LINGER IN THIS AREA...AND WILL
DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF ITS WORTHY OF A FORMAL
INCLUSION. AT ANY RATE...ONCE THIS MONDAY MORNING ACTIVITY FINALLY
VACATES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT CARRIES A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF REMAINING DRY AS THE CENTER OF THE SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS THE DAY OVER EASTERN KS STEADILY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A BROAD...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURE RISES PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 16-23 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO SLIGHTLY
OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE SPEEDS WERE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE BREEZES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8 MPH OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS GRADUALLY CHANGES DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT PLENTY OF SUN WORKS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...NUDGED UP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE
FROM NEAR-70 NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY COVERED
ABOVE...THESE MILD TEMPS COULD TEAM WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPS...AND AGAIN ASSUMING NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD SEE A DECENT DROP INTO THE LOW 40S MOST
AREAS...WITH COLDER UPPER 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL DAWSON TO
VALLEY/GREELEY CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRY DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PICTURE PER THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATES THAT THE HEART OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP-WISE...ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 100+ MILES WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SO THE DAY IS DRY. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB CRANKS UP OVER THE
AREA...TRANSPORTING AT LEAST LIMITED MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...AS THE NAM ONLY ADVERTISES CAPE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER UP TO MAYBE 300-400 J/KG. POP-WISE...HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT 20S EVERYWHERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH 30S THEN PAINTED
IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MUCH OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY COULD LARGELY FOCUS EAST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS THE FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR NOW. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CRANK UP ALONG A HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING MOST OF THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE FAR
WEST. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. DURING THE
DAY...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH LOW-MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OPENING LONG TERM PARAGRAPH ABOVE
ALREADY TOUCHED ON SOME OF THE ISSUES REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ON THE BASIC MID- UPPER PATTERN
HOWEVER...A RATHER STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN SOME
WAY...SHAPE OR FORM. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH SHARPENS A FAIRLY STOUT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE
THROUGH WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
ROUGHLY 992MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
ONE BIG QUESTION REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
INVOLVES WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAYTIME CONVECTION AROUND THAT
COULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...OR WHETHER THERE MIGHT
BE ONE MAIN SURFACE-BASED SHOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FIRING
ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND MOVING EAST. FOR SURE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40+KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS IF OTHER FACTORS COME TOGETHER. NUDGED UP DAYTIME POPS
TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS...BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST 50-60
POPS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
CONVECTION MORPHING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. ALSO AS ALREADY TOUCHED
ON EARLIER...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD STRONGLY SUPPORT ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SO THIS
COULD BE AN ISSUE NO MATTER HOW HIGH OR LOW THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS
UP BEING. TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION GIVEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT CHANGED HIGHS LITTLE WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW
80S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
48-HOUR TIME FRAME VOID OF POPS...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT. ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE NEXT
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
DID NOT BITE ON THIS QUITE YET. TEMPS ON BOTH DAYS WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS MAINLY 65-70.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS EARLIER TOUCHED ON...ITS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
THAT BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARY AIMED MAYBE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH MAINLY LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WITH A BASE IN THE 8000-10000FT AGL RANGE...GENERALLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN NATURE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT GRI
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAF. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AS A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD BY 02Z...AND A NORTHEAST
WIND TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 200944
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY IS NOTED EXTENDING
ALONG TWO BRANCHES ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH ONE BRANCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 35000FT AGL PER
00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE HELPING PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. AS OF 08Z THIS BOUNDARY WAS
NOTED FROM NEAR KBVN...TO NEAR KEAR...TO NEAR KHLC. THE RESULTANT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD NOTED AT LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAIN BY 00Z MONDAY AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THIS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MEANDERING ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUR AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS SHORT WAVE...IS INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AND AS A
RESULT...WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TRYING TO MATERIALIZE OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST/NORTHEAST AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT CHANCES FOR  WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM
THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE CWA FOR TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION WILL MOVE MORE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY 06Z...AND WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
~500J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DOES HINT AT VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000J/KG ACROSS OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
CONVECTION WILL PROMOTE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TODAY...BUT WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE HWO IN
CASE THE GFS VERIFIES THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS FOR TODAY WILL CHANGE
VERY LITTLE WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE READINGS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WITH THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM FADING INTO THE REARVIEW MIRROR
VERY EARLY IN THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL
INCREASINGLY TURN TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM THAT STILL LOOKS TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE POTENTIAL...KEY WORD POTENTIAL...STILL EXISTS FOR A ROUND
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WANT TO
AGAIN CAUTION THAT THERE ARE A TON OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE
THIS IS A SLAM-DUNK SEVERE EVENT...AS IF ANYTHING THE LATEST 00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM ARE A LITTLE MORE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ESPECIALLY REGARDING
SURFACE FRONT POSITIONS AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE...AND AT LEAST
FOR NOW THE GFS/GEM PAINT A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM
SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT LESS-SO. ALONG
THOSE SAME LINES...THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND
THUS DOWNPLAYS THE VERY STRONG SOUTH WIND POTENTIAL. AT LEAST FOR
NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES LEANING TOWARD THE WINDIER
SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). LOOKING BEYOND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD ON
SATURDAY FOR THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THIS ONE WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MORE-SO THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...OR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY. ALTHOUGH
IT IS FAR...FAR TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THIS SYSTEM...THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL...WILL
CONTINUE A MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS MUCH OF THE
CWA IS STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 22-26 PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. OF COURSE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST MODEST RAINFALL BEFORE
THEN...ANY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE THREAT COULD BE LARGELY MITIGATED
ANYWAY. NO MATTER...DO NOT FORESEE FIRE PARAMETERS DROPPING INTO
ACTUAL CRITICAL RANGE AND THUS REQUIRING A HEADLINE.

NOW GETTING INTO THE DETAILS AND TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME/MONDAY NIGHT...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA
RIGHT AWAY ON MONDAY MORNING...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAVE LINGERED ONLY A SLIGHT 20 POP WITHIN THIS AREA TO
COVER THE POSSIBLE LAST DEPARTING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONLY HAVE THIS POP IN PLACE THROUGH
10AM/15Z...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM...ALTHOUGH ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NEW 06Z
NAM TRIES TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER CLOSER TO NOON IN KS ZONES.
ALSO KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION WITH THIS POST-SUNRISE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO COULD STILL LINGER IN THIS AREA...AND WILL
DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF ITS WORTHY OF A FORMAL
INCLUSION. AT ANY RATE...ONCE THIS MONDAY MORNING ACTIVITY FINALLY
VACATES...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT CARRIES A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF REMAINING DRY AS THE CENTER OF THE SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS THE DAY OVER EASTERN KS STEADILY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A BROAD...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURE RISES PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PROMOTE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTH WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 16-23 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO SLIGHTLY
OVER 30 MPH...ALTHOUGH THESE SPEEDS WERE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE BREEZES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8 MPH OR LESS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS GRADUALLY CHANGES DIRECTION FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT PLENTY OF SUN WORKS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP...NUDGED UP
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...AIMING FOR A RANGE
FROM NEAR-70 NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. AS ALREADY COVERED
ABOVE...THESE MILD TEMPS COULD TEAM WITH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S TO ENHANCE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. AS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPS...AND AGAIN ASSUMING NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD SEE A DECENT DROP INTO THE LOW 40S MOST
AREAS...WITH COLDER UPPER 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL DAWSON TO
VALLEY/GREELEY CORRIDOR IN THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
STARTS TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRY DAY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PICTURE PER THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATES THAT THE HEART OF THE
BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP-WISE...ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 100+ MILES WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SO THE DAY IS DRY. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850MB CRANKS UP OVER THE
AREA...TRANSPORTING AT LEAST LIMITED MOISTURE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...AS THE NAM ONLY ADVERTISES CAPE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER UP TO MAYBE 300-400 J/KG. POP-WISE...HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT 20S EVERYWHERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH 30S THEN PAINTED
IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MUCH OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY COULD LARGELY FOCUS EAST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS THE FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR NOW. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CRANK UP ALONG A HIGH PLAINS LEE
TROUGH...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING MOST OF THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 15 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE FAR
WEST. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOW
TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. DURING THE
DAY...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH LOW-MID 70S MOST
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OPENING LONG TERM PARAGRAPH ABOVE
ALREADY TOUCHED ON SOME OF THE ISSUES REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ON THE BASIC MID- UPPER PATTERN
HOWEVER...A RATHER STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN SOME
WAY...SHAPE OR FORM. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MUCH EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH SHARPENS A FAIRLY STOUT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE
THROUGH WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
ROUGHLY 992MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
ONE BIG QUESTION REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
INVOLVES WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAYTIME CONVECTION AROUND THAT
COULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...OR WHETHER THERE MIGHT
BE ONE MAIN SURFACE-BASED SHOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FIRING
ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AND MOVING EAST. FOR SURE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40+KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS IF OTHER FACTORS COME TOGETHER. NUDGED UP DAYTIME POPS
TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS...BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST 50-60
POPS OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
CONVECTION MORPHING INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. ALSO AS ALREADY TOUCHED
ON EARLIER...THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD STRONGLY SUPPORT ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SO THIS
COULD BE AN ISSUE NO MATTER HOW HIGH OR LOW THE SEVERE THREAT ENDS
UP BEING. TEMPS ARE OBVIOUSLY SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION GIVEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BUT CHANGED HIGHS LITTLE WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW
80S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
48-HOUR TIME FRAME VOID OF POPS...EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH UNDER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT. ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE NEXT
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES...BUT
DID NOT BITE ON THIS QUITE YET. TEMPS ON BOTH DAYS WERE CHANGED
VERY LITTLE...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS MAINLY 65-70.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS EARLIER TOUCHED ON...ITS VERY POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY
THAT BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARY AIMED MAYBE A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH MAINLY LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER WITH BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...GENERALLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN IN NATURE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TO START THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE CLOUD COVER BASE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND
8000FT AGL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER BASES NEAR 4000FT AGL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS REALIZED AT GRI
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF
GRI...CLOSER TO EAR...HDE AND LXN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AND BASED ON ITS CURRENT MOMENT SHOULD MISS GRI TO THE
WEST AND NORTH. THAT BEING SAID...RADAR HAS INDICATED THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ATTEMPTING TO EXPAND EAST AT TIMES. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND EAST...WENT
AHEAD WITH VCTS 06-09Z. BEYOND 09Z...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT GRI UNTIL 18Z...AT WHICH TIME A 30% CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA 18-06Z...THUS THE PROB30 GROUP IN
THE TAF. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AS A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THUS RESULTING IN A ANOTHER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD 02Z ONWARD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT





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