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000
FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS NEAR 7000FT
AGL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY
OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO
THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH 03Z...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
18KTS. THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS IN BOTH TAFS 03-12Z AS A RESULT. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS NEAR 7000FT
AGL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY
OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO
THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH 03Z...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
18KTS. THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS IN BOTH TAFS 03-12Z AS A RESULT. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT





000
FXUS63 KGID 191950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...HOTTEST DAY SINCE AUG 20TH TODAY AND A COOL FRONT WILL SLIP
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS THEN COOLER
TOMORROW AND MUCH COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...HOTTEST DAY SINCE AUG 20TH TODAY AND A COOL FRONT WILL SLIP
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS THEN COOLER
TOMORROW AND MUCH COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 191859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
159 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS MOST PLACES. GRI IS PRETTY
MUCH GUARANTEED TO HIT 90F. THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR
THIS MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT 90 WAS AUG 20TH.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

I DID END UP RAISING HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGS ALONG THE NEB HWY
283 CORRIDOR JUST SO THE FCST EXPLICITLY STATES HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. 91 IS NOW FCST AT EAR. BASED ON THIS...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
NUDGED LOWER DUE TO DEEPER MIXING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191750
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

I DID END UP RAISING HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGS ALONG THE NEB HWY
283 CORRIDOR JUST SO THE FCST EXPLICITLY STATES HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. 91 IS NOW FCST AT EAR. BASED ON THIS...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
NUDGED LOWER DUE TO DEEPER MIXING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191750
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

I DID END UP RAISING HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGS ALONG THE NEB HWY
283 CORRIDOR JUST SO THE FCST EXPLICITLY STATES HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. 91 IS NOW FCST AT EAR. BASED ON THIS...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
NUDGED LOWER DUE TO DEEPER MIXING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB





000
FXUS63 KGID 191434
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 191434
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 191056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 191056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 190920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 190920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 190559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI





000
FXUS63 KGID 190559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 190322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 190322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 190000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 190000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 181931
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181931
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO





000
FXUS63 KGID 181753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...GUERRERO





000
FXUS63 KGID 181049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS IN THE UPCOMING
HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG HAVE EXPANDED
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAS RESULTED IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINAL AREAS. HIRES/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND KEPT
THOSE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THERE AT LEAST ON A TEMPO BASIS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING...AND HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY...WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 181049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS IN THE UPCOMING
HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG HAVE EXPANDED
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAS RESULTED IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINAL AREAS. HIRES/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND KEPT
THOSE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THERE AT LEAST ON A TEMPO BASIS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING...AND HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY...WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 180940
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
440 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD LIES THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH DROPPING CEILINGS AND
FOG. SHORT TERM MODELS AND GUIDANCE...TO VARYING
DEGREES...CONTINUE TO SHOW CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH TIME AS
WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE. HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS GOING AT BOTH
TERMINAL SITES...WILL ADJUST ONCE THINGS DEVELOP AND CAN GET A
BETTER FEEL FOR JUST HOW BAD CONDITIONS LOOK TO GET. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
WINDS...WHICH REMAIN GENERALLY SERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP





000
FXUS63 KGID 180549
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1249 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST...WEAKENING ODILE LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN AZ/NM AND NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TEMPS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTN ONCE STRATUS FINALLY ERODED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT IS LOOKING UNEVENTFUL...HOWEVER AFTER
DARK...CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL WAA INCREASES AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WITH
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AGAIN DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE PRETTY ROBUST WITH LOW VSBY PROGS IN FOG AND HAVE WENT
WITH MORE AREAS VS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME
AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG. HOW LOW VSBYS DROP WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT
UPON ON QUICKLY WINDS TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP
BY MID/LATE MORNING. BASED ON STRATUS/FOG TIMING EARLIER
TODAY...THE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WAS MORE TOWARD 14Z SO WENT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING FOR THURS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ON HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL BE FOG VS TSTM VS DRIZZLE AND HAVE LEFT DRIZZLE OUT
DUE TO HAVING POPS IN THERE FOR STORMS. IF STORMS GO...A STRONG
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL HAIL SIZE HAIL DUE TO PRESENCE
OF INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG AND 40KTS OF SHEAR.

THURSDAY IS COMPLICATED DUE TO HOW LONG STRATUS WILL HOLD AND IF IT
HOLDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS MODELS HOLD ONTO
LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTN AND HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PATTERN: THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ARE LOOKING VERY DRY HERE...PRIMARILY
ONCE WE GET PAST SAT. THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WON`T RAIN...JUST THAT
CONDITIONS GENERALLY WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DECENT RAINFALL AND THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGH FOR A LONG STRETCH WITH NO RAIN. MULTI-DAY
500 MB ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM NCEP/ECMWF/MSC/JMA ALL INDICATE HIGH
PREDICTABILITY IN A NE PACIFIC TROF/WRN USA RIDGE WITH NW FLOW HERE
OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS IS A DRY PATTERN...IT WILL BE
WONDERFULLY WARM AT TIMES AS WE TUSSLE BETWEEN THE LAST VESTIGES OF
SUMMER AND ONCOMING AUTUMN. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A 90F DAY OR
TWO IN THE TRI-CITIES.

ALOFT: THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN USA WILL ADVANCE E OVER THE
PLAINS BY 00Z/FRI AS THE LOW OFF CA MOVES INLAND. SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SERIOUS SPELL OF
BELOW NORMAL CHILL NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRI BUT
BECOMES QUASHED SAT AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVER THE ERN USA. THE
WRN USA RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED TEMPORARILY E INTO THE CNTRL USA NEXT
TUE-WED...ALONG WITH THE EMBEDDED LOW THAT WILL MOVES INLAND IN THE
W TOMORROW. THIS LOW WILL BE A FCST PROBLEM AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
A DAY OR TWO OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL CHILL.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE /CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO AZ/NM.

SURFACE: ERN USA HIGH PRES WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN USA FRI-SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE SAT NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN SUN-TUE AS IT PRESSES SE INTO THE ERN USA.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT: A MILD NIGHT. BREEZY AT TIMES. WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF FALL-
LIKE CHILL THIS MONTH. TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN A WEEK FOR SURE
AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO SEP 3RD.

FRI: WARM SECTOR. SUNNY/BREEZY AND VERY WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE SEEN
IN OVER A WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH 90F FOR AN HOUR. BEST CHANCE AT KEARNEY. CAN`T RULE
OUT A VERY LATE AFTERNOON TSTM N OF NEB HWY 92 AS THE FRONT EASES IN
FROM THE N.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE MAV AND 4KM NAM 2M DEWPOINTS FOR 21Z AS
THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERIFYING BEST AND OUR DEWPOINT
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LOW AT 57 HRS.

FRI NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF WITH THE LEE-SIDE TROF AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40-50
KTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. PROBABLY NOT
WIDESPREAD AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE.

SAT: SOME TSTMS OR TSTM CLUSTERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS. SOME HELP VIA THE REMNANTS OF ODILE COULD
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY /EVEN IF IT DOES NOT MAKE IT
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES/ COULD PUT A SIGNIFICANT CAP ON TEMPS.
NOT SURE WE HAVE THIS HANDLED PROPERLY YET. BACK TO NORMAL ON THE
TEMPS...EXCEPT THIS POSSIBLE SNAG.

SUN: SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

MON: SUNNY WITH TEMPS DROPPING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT STILL VERY
PLEASANT.

TUE-WED: WARM SECTOR WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
CLUSTERS OF LLJ WAA-DRIVEN TSTMS. TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD LIES THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH DROPPING CEILINGS AND
FOG. SHORT TERM MODELS AND GUIDANCE...TO VARYING
DEGREES...CONTINUE TO SHOW CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH TIME AS
WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE. HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS GOING AT BOTH
TERMINAL SITES...WILL ADJUST ONCE THINGS DEVELOP AND CAN GET A
BETTER FEEL FOR JUST HOW BAD CONDITIONS LOOK TO GET. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
WINDS...WHICH REMAIN GENERALLY SERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST...WEAKENING ODILE LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN AZ/NM AND NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TEMPS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTN ONCE STRATUS FINALLY ERODED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT IS LOOKING UNEVENTFUL...HOWEVER AFTER
DARK...CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL WAA INCREASES AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WITH
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AGAIN DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE PRETTY ROBUST WITH LOW VSBY PROGS IN FOG AND HAVE WENT
WITH MORE AREAS VS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME
AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG. HOW LOW VSBYS DROP WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT
UPON ON QUICKLY WINDS TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP
BY MID/LATE MORNING. BASED ON STRATUS/FOG TIMING EARLIER
TODAY...THE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WAS MORE TOWARD 14Z SO WENT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING FOR THURS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ON HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL BE FOG VS TSTM VS DRIZZLE AND HAVE LEFT DRIZZLE OUT
DUE TO HAVING POPS IN THERE FOR STORMS. IF STORMS GO...A STRONG
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL HAIL SIZE HAIL DUE TO PRESENCE
OF INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG AND 40KTS OF SHEAR.

THURSDAY IS COMPLICATED DUE TO HOW LONG STRATUS WILL HOLD AND IF IT
HOLDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS MODELS HOLD ONTO
LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTN AND HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PATTERN: THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ARE LOOKING VERY DRY HERE...PRIMARILY
ONCE WE GET PAST SAT. THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WON`T RAIN...JUST THAT
CONDITIONS GENERALLY WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DECENT RAINFALL AND THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGH FOR A LONG STRETCH WITH NO RAIN. MULTI-DAY
500 MB ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM NCEP/ECMWF/MSC/JMA ALL INDICATE HIGH
PREDICTABILITY IN A NE PACIFIC TROF/WRN USA RIDGE WITH NW FLOW HERE
OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS IS A DRY PATTERN...IT WILL BE
WONDERFULLY WARM AT TIMES AS WE TUSSLE BETWEEN THE LAST VESTIGES OF
SUMMER AND ONCOMING AUTUMN. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A 90F DAY OR
TWO IN THE TRI-CITIES.

ALOFT: THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN USA WILL ADVANCE E OVER THE
PLAINS BY 00Z/FRI AS THE LOW OFF CA MOVES INLAND. SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SERIOUS SPELL OF
BELOW NORMAL CHILL NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRI BUT
BECOMES QUASHED SAT AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVER THE ERN USA. THE
WRN USA RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED TEMPORARILY E INTO THE CNTRL USA NEXT
TUE-WED...ALONG WITH THE EMBEDDED LOW THAT WILL MOVES INLAND IN THE
W TOMORROW. THIS LOW WILL BE A FCST PROBLEM AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
A DAY OR TWO OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL CHILL.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE /CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO AZ/NM.

SURFACE: ERN USA HIGH PRES WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN USA FRI-SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE SAT NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN SUN-TUE AS IT PRESSES SE INTO THE ERN USA.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT: A MILD NIGHT. BREEZY AT TIMES. WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF FALL-
LIKE CHILL THIS MONTH. TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN A WEEK FOR SURE
AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO SEP 3RD.

FRI: WARM SECTOR. SUNNY/BREEZY AND VERY WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE SEEN
IN OVER A WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH 90F FOR AN HOUR. BEST CHANCE AT KEARNEY. CAN`T RULE
OUT A VERY LATE AFTERNOON TSTM N OF NEB HWY 92 AS THE FRONT EASES IN
FROM THE N.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE MAV AND 4KM NAM 2M DEWPOINTS FOR 21Z AS
THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERIFYING BEST AND OUR DEWPOINT
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LOW AT 57 HRS.

FRI NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF WITH THE LEE-SIDE TROF AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40-50
KTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. PROBABLY NOT
WIDESPREAD AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE.

SAT: SOME TSTMS OR TSTM CLUSTERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS. SOME HELP VIA THE REMNANTS OF ODILE COULD
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY /EVEN IF IT DOES NOT MAKE IT
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES/ COULD PUT A SIGNIFICANT CAP ON TEMPS.
NOT SURE WE HAVE THIS HANDLED PROPERLY YET. BACK TO NORMAL ON THE
TEMPS...EXCEPT THIS POSSIBLE SNAG.

SUN: SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

MON: SUNNY WITH TEMPS DROPPING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT STILL VERY
PLEASANT.

TUE-WED: WARM SECTOR WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
CLUSTERS OF LLJ WAA-DRIVEN TSTMS. TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
REDUCED VISIBILITY TO SOME DEGREE...AND SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA
FOGGED UP LAST NIGHT...IT IS EVEN LIKELY MORE WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST...WEAKENING ODILE LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN AZ/NM AND NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TEMPS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTN ONCE STRATUS FINALLY ERODED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT IS LOOKING UNEVENTFUL...HOWEVER AFTER
DARK...CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL WAA INCREASES AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WITH
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AGAIN DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE PRETTY ROBUST WITH LOW VSBY PROGS IN FOG AND HAVE WENT
WITH MORE AREAS VS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME
AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG. HOW LOW VSBYS DROP WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT
UPON ON QUICKLY WINDS TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP
BY MID/LATE MORNING. BASED ON STRATUS/FOG TIMING EARLIER
TODAY...THE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WAS MORE TOWARD 14Z SO WENT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING FOR THURS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ON HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL BE FOG VS TSTM VS DRIZZLE AND HAVE LEFT DRIZZLE OUT
DUE TO HAVING POPS IN THERE FOR STORMS. IF STORMS GO...A STRONG
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL HAIL SIZE HAIL DUE TO PRESENCE
OF INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG AND 40KTS OF SHEAR.

THURSDAY IS COMPLICATED DUE TO HOW LONG STRATUS WILL HOLD AND IF IT
HOLDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS MODELS HOLD ONTO
LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTN AND HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PATTERN: THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ARE LOOKING VERY DRY HERE...PRIMARILY
ONCE WE GET PAST SAT. THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WON`T RAIN...JUST THAT
CONDITIONS GENERALLY WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DECENT RAINFALL AND THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGH FOR A LONG STRETCH WITH NO RAIN. MULTI-DAY
500 MB ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM NCEP/ECMWF/MSC/JMA ALL INDICATE HIGH
PREDICTABILITY IN A NE PACIFIC TROF/WRN USA RIDGE WITH NW FLOW HERE
OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS IS A DRY PATTERN...IT WILL BE
WONDERFULLY WARM AT TIMES AS WE TUSSLE BETWEEN THE LAST VESTIGES OF
SUMMER AND ONCOMING AUTUMN. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A 90F DAY OR
TWO IN THE TRI-CITIES.

ALOFT: THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN USA WILL ADVANCE E OVER THE
PLAINS BY 00Z/FRI AS THE LOW OFF CA MOVES INLAND. SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SERIOUS SPELL OF
BELOW NORMAL CHILL NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRI BUT
BECOMES QUASHED SAT AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVER THE ERN USA. THE
WRN USA RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED TEMPORARILY E INTO THE CNTRL USA NEXT
TUE-WED...ALONG WITH THE EMBEDDED LOW THAT WILL MOVES INLAND IN THE
W TOMORROW. THIS LOW WILL BE A FCST PROBLEM AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
A DAY OR TWO OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL CHILL.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE /CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO AZ/NM.

SURFACE: ERN USA HIGH PRES WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN USA FRI-SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE SAT NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN SUN-TUE AS IT PRESSES SE INTO THE ERN USA.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT: A MILD NIGHT. BREEZY AT TIMES. WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF FALL-
LIKE CHILL THIS MONTH. TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN A WEEK FOR SURE
AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO SEP 3RD.

FRI: WARM SECTOR. SUNNY/BREEZY AND VERY WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE SEEN
IN OVER A WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH 90F FOR AN HOUR. BEST CHANCE AT KEARNEY. CAN`T RULE
OUT A VERY LATE AFTERNOON TSTM N OF NEB HWY 92 AS THE FRONT EASES IN
FROM THE N.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE MAV AND 4KM NAM 2M DEWPOINTS FOR 21Z AS
THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERIFYING BEST AND OUR DEWPOINT
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LOW AT 57 HRS.

FRI NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF WITH THE LEE-SIDE TROF AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40-50
KTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. PROBABLY NOT
WIDESPREAD AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE.

SAT: SOME TSTMS OR TSTM CLUSTERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS. SOME HELP VIA THE REMNANTS OF ODILE COULD
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY /EVEN IF IT DOES NOT MAKE IT
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES/ COULD PUT A SIGNIFICANT CAP ON TEMPS.
NOT SURE WE HAVE THIS HANDLED PROPERLY YET. BACK TO NORMAL ON THE
TEMPS...EXCEPT THIS POSSIBLE SNAG.

SUN: SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

MON: SUNNY WITH TEMPS DROPPING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT STILL VERY
PLEASANT.

TUE-WED: WARM SECTOR WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
CLUSTERS OF LLJ WAA-DRIVEN TSTMS. TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD
REDUCED VISIBILITY TO SOME DEGREE...AND SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA
FOGGED UP LAST NIGHT...IT IS EVEN LIKELY MORE WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN





000
FXUS63 KGID 171957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST...WEAKENING ODILE LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN AZ/NM AND NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TEMPS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTN ONCE STRATUS FINALLY ERODED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH READINGS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT IS LOOKING UNEVENTFUL...HOWEVER AFTER
DARK...CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS AND MID LEVEL WAA INCREASES AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WITH
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO AGAIN DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MODELS ARE PRETTY ROBUST WITH LOW VSBY PROGS IN FOG AND HAVE WENT
WITH MORE AREAS VS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME
AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG. HOW LOW VSBYS DROP WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT
UPON ON QUICKLY WINDS TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP
BY MID/LATE MORNING. BASED ON STRATUS/FOG TIMING EARLIER
TODAY...THE VSBY IMPROVEMENT WAS MORE TOWARD 14Z SO WENT WITH
SIMILAR TIMING FOR THURS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ON HOW MUCH
OF THIS WILL BE FOG VS TSTM VS DRIZZLE AND HAVE LEFT DRIZZLE OUT
DUE TO HAVING POPS IN THERE FOR STORMS. IF STORMS GO...A STRONG
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL HAIL SIZE HAIL DUE TO PRESENCE
OF INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG AND 40KTS OF SHEAR.

THURSDAY IS COMPLICATED DUE TO HOW LONG STRATUS WILL HOLD AND IF IT
HOLDS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AS MODELS HOLD ONTO
LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE AFTN AND HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PATTERN: THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ARE LOOKING VERY DRY HERE...PRIMARILY
ONCE WE GET PAST SAT. THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WON`T RAIN...JUST THAT
CONDITIONS GENERALLY WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DECENT RAINFALL AND THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGH FOR A LONG STRETCH WITH NO RAIN. MULTI-DAY
500 MB ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM NCEP/ECMWF/MSC/JMA ALL INDICATE HIGH
PREDICTABILITY IN A NE PACIFIC TROF/WRN USA RIDGE WITH NW FLOW HERE
OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS IS A DRY PATTERN...IT WILL BE
WONDERFULLY WARM AT TIMES AS WE TUSSLE BETWEEN THE LAST VESTIGES OF
SUMMER AND ONCOMING AUTUMN. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A 90F DAY OR
TWO IN THE TRI-CITIES.

ALOFT: THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN USA WILL ADVANCE E OVER THE
PLAINS BY 00Z/FRI AS THE LOW OFF CA MOVES INLAND. SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS
FALL OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SERIOUS SPELL OF
BELOW NORMAL CHILL NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRI BUT
BECOMES QUASHED SAT AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DIGS OVER THE ERN USA. THE
WRN USA RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED TEMPORARILY E INTO THE CNTRL USA NEXT
TUE-WED...ALONG WITH THE EMBEDDED LOW THAT WILL MOVES INLAND IN THE
W TOMORROW. THIS LOW WILL BE A FCST PROBLEM AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
A DAY OR TWO OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL CHILL.

ANOTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE /CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO AZ/NM.

SURFACE: ERN USA HIGH PRES WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN USA FRI-SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE SAT NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN SUN-TUE AS IT PRESSES SE INTO THE ERN USA.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT: A MILD NIGHT. BREEZY AT TIMES. WE HAVE SEEN A LOT OF FALL-
LIKE CHILL THIS MONTH. TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN A WEEK FOR SURE
AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO SEP 3RD.

FRI: WARM SECTOR. SUNNY/BREEZY AND VERY WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE SEEN
IN OVER A WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ONE OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD
BRIEFLY TOUCH 90F FOR AN HOUR. BEST CHANCE AT KEARNEY. CAN`T RULE
OUT A VERY LATE AFTERNOON TSTM N OF NEB HWY 92 AS THE FRONT EASES IN
FROM THE N.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE MAV AND 4KM NAM 2M DEWPOINTS FOR 21Z AS
THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERIFYING BEST AND OUR DEWPOINT
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LOW AT 57 HRS.

FRI NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF WITH THE LEE-SIDE TROF AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40-50
KTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. PROBABLY NOT
WIDESPREAD AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE.

SAT: SOME TSTMS OR TSTM CLUSTERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS. SOME HELP VIA THE REMNANTS OF ODILE COULD
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY /EVEN IF IT DOES NOT MAKE IT
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES/ COULD PUT A SIGNIFICANT CAP ON TEMPS.
NOT SURE WE HAVE THIS HANDLED PROPERLY YET. BACK TO NORMAL ON THE
TEMPS...EXCEPT THIS POSSIBLE SNAG.

SUN: SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

MON: SUNNY WITH TEMPS DROPPING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT STILL VERY
PLEASANT.

TUE-WED: WARM SECTOR WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
CLUSTERS OF LLJ WAA-DRIVEN TSTMS. TEMPS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE/THICKEN WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR RESTRICTED VSBYS IN BR/FOG LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID
MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 171750
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURE ENOUGH...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS GRADUALLY SHOWN ITS HAND
ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...ALONG WITH PRIMARILY
OUR WESTERN-MOST COLUMN OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH IS LIMITED...IT SEEMS THAT COUNTIES WITHIN
OUR CWA ARE MAINLY ON THE FRINGES OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DID RECENTLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HEIGHTEN AWARENESS. IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THE
ONCOMING DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SHORT-FUSE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSIST
OF...FIRSTLY: WHETHER OR NOT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG WILL YET
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND IF SO...WILL IT REMAIN MOSTLY HIT-AND-
MISS OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOME AREAS. SECONDLY: WILL AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FLARE UP THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT...AND IF SO COULD A FEW EVEN BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THIRDLY: ALTHOUGH STEADIER SURFACE BREEZES
SHOULD ACT AGAINST FOG FORMATION A BIT MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VERSUS THIS MORNING...AT LEAST PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN KICKS UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING NO UNEXPECTED ENHANCED CLOUD ISSUES...BY FAR
THE BIG STORY IS THAT HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BREACH THE 80+
MARK NEARLY CWA-WIDE...IN MANY PLACES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 9
DAYS SINCE SEP. 8TH...A PRETTY NOTABLE STRETCH CONSIDERING MOST OF
IT OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...OVERALL
ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...AS ANY WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST ZONES HAS ALL
BUT PASSED BY...AS SEVERAL MODELS CORRECTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD INITIATE AND FOCUS AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE AREA OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AND THIS IN FACT HAS BEEN THE
CASE. MEANWHILE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A RECENTLY FORMED RIBBON
OF LOW STRATUS RACING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEB
APPEARS POISED TO POSSIBLY BARELY BRUSH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER
DISORGANIZED VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE IL/IN AREA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A VERY WEAK
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS. AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS
AGO...THE COMBO OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT BREEZES HAS FOSTERED
AT LEAST SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BASED ON AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AT LEAST SO FAR ANY FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE AND LIKELY FAVORING TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW AUTOMATED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR
THE CWA HAVE AT LEAST BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE...INCLUDING A LOCALIZED QUARTER MILE AT ORD. AS FOR LOW TEMPS
THIS MORNING...PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
ARE HEADING TOWARD LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AS A
FEW SPOTS HAVE EVEN DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT LOW-MID 50S AND EVEN
CLOSER TO 60 FAR SOUTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM FAIRLY STEADY-
STATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DIRECTED
BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA AREA TOWARD SOUTHERN
AZ. CLOSER TO HOME...A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE ZIPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEB/IA/SD BORDER AREA TOWARD NORTHERN MO HAS HELPED
STRENGTHEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINLY OVER
KS...AND ITS NO COINCIDENCE THAT ITS EXIT REGION INTO THE KS/MO
BORDER REGION IS WHERE THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE BAND OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP.

LOOKING AHEAD AND NOW AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...OBVIOUSLY FOG TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ALTHOUGH FOG IS OFTEN A VERY FICKLE ENTITY...VERY SHORT
TERM VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THINGS
COULD CERTAINLY WORSEN/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD YET THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MAYBE
ON A LOCALIZED BASIS ALMOST ANYWHERE. THINGS WOULD HAVE TO GET
CONSIDERABLE WORSE/WIDESPREAD TO EVEN BEGIN TO CONSIDER ANY KIND
OF FORMAL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 14-15Z/9-10AM
BEFORE WE ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS ON SOME AREAS SEEING
VISIBILITIES NEAR/BELOW 1 MILE AND LOCALLY DENSE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
A MIX OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS-OF FOG WORDING REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

GETTING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS TO THE HEART OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN THEME HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN OBSERVED LATELY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND LARGELY UNEVENTFUL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA DEPARTS WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA BY DAYS END.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PERCEPTIBLE FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN A DRY-DAY CWA-WIDE AS NEARLY ALL MODEL QPF AND REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS SUGGEST...AS ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT
MIGHT MANAGE TO BUILD SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED PER NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES OF
THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 MPH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST. ONCE ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS/FOG
THAT DEVELOPS BURNS OFF...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE A FEW PASSING BATCHES OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...IN OTHER WORDS NO PESKY LOWER DAYTIME STRATUS DECK
ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING AS DID IN FACT
OCCUR YESTERDAY. THE OBVIOUS RESULT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE RISE
IN TEMPS VERSUS LATELY. THAT BEING SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN
1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHILE LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTH UNCHANGED. THE NET RESULT IS LOW
80S ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES AND MAINLY MID 80S
SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER 80S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SUCH AS ROOKS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO GET ANOTHER BOOST IN THE
HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S
MOST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING TONIGHT...THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THINGS
IS THAT IT COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH
AT LEAST LIMITED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IT COULD ALMOST JUST AS EASILY BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. SUCH IS THE FICKLE NATURE OF
NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW-ALOFT SITUATIONS WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS WEAK. SPEAKING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS BUT ACTUALLY MIGHT WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AT LEAST 1 OR 2 VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER/NEAR THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING THIS TIME AROUND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS NOTED IN 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE FORECASTS AND ALSO NOTED IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTANT ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION BASED MAINLY IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. PER VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES REFLECTIVITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP
ALONG THIS ELEVATED CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT EITHER AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING WHILE EXPANDING AT LEAST 20 POPS TO ALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOCUSING HIGHEST 30S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOULD CONVECTION MATERIALIZE...CERTAINLY A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AT LEAST NICKEL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY
LARGER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY
5-10 MPH SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP WORK AGAINST
ANY WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION...ALONG WITH OF COURSE ANY
LOCALIZED MIXING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...AT
LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT
FORECAST. THE EARLIER 00Z NAM SUGGESTED THAT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. MADE VERY LITTLE ALTERATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES...AS
ANOTHER UPWARD CLIMB FROM ONE NIGHT TO THE NEXT CONTINUES...WITH
LOWS AIMED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH...LOW 60S CENTRAL AND MID 60S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SUMMARY...FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...STILL APPEARS TO THE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ARE NOT THAT GOOD AND CHANCES HAVE EVEN FALLEN OFF A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PERIODS WHERE 24HRS EARLIER THEY LOOKING THE
BEST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT WILL BE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MID SEPTEMBER PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS AVERAGING OUT
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. THERE IS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWEST LAYER FROM AROUND AND BELOW 850
MB AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INITIALLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO BE FOG RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF SPLOTCHY QPF. TYPICALLY
THIS COULD BE SPRINKLES...DRIZZLE...OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THIS CASE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED
STRATUS DECK WILL BE BELOW 850 MB AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD SEEDING FROM PASSING MID CLOUDS
GENERATING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
ODDS OF THUNDER ARE LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE TRI CITIES TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AND MODEL BLENDS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL
BE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BE BREAKING OFF A VORT MAX OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A LESS
VIGOROUS WAVE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THAN WAS INDICATED IN MODEL RUNS
24HRS AGO.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RECENT FORECAST RUNS AS SOME
OF THE ENERGY IS BEING LEFT BEHIND OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE IT LEAVES
BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW. MODEL BLENDS HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME IN THIS
PERIOD...AND IT SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. WILL
HAVE TO REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE REMAINING VORT MAX AND MOISTURE WILL BE COMING UP
THROUGH KANSAS AND MIGHT BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER BET AT THIS TIME FOR ODILE RELATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS APPEAR DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AVERAGING OUT IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE/THICKEN WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR RESTRICTED VSBYS IN BR/FOG LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 171750
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURE ENOUGH...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS GRADUALLY SHOWN ITS HAND
ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...ALONG WITH PRIMARILY
OUR WESTERN-MOST COLUMN OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH IS LIMITED...IT SEEMS THAT COUNTIES WITHIN
OUR CWA ARE MAINLY ON THE FRINGES OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DID RECENTLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HEIGHTEN AWARENESS. IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THE
ONCOMING DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SHORT-FUSE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSIST
OF...FIRSTLY: WHETHER OR NOT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG WILL YET
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND IF SO...WILL IT REMAIN MOSTLY HIT-AND-
MISS OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOME AREAS. SECONDLY: WILL AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FLARE UP THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT...AND IF SO COULD A FEW EVEN BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THIRDLY: ALTHOUGH STEADIER SURFACE BREEZES
SHOULD ACT AGAINST FOG FORMATION A BIT MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VERSUS THIS MORNING...AT LEAST PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN KICKS UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING NO UNEXPECTED ENHANCED CLOUD ISSUES...BY FAR
THE BIG STORY IS THAT HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BREACH THE 80+
MARK NEARLY CWA-WIDE...IN MANY PLACES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 9
DAYS SINCE SEP. 8TH...A PRETTY NOTABLE STRETCH CONSIDERING MOST OF
IT OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...OVERALL
ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...AS ANY WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST ZONES HAS ALL
BUT PASSED BY...AS SEVERAL MODELS CORRECTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD INITIATE AND FOCUS AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE AREA OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AND THIS IN FACT HAS BEEN THE
CASE. MEANWHILE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A RECENTLY FORMED RIBBON
OF LOW STRATUS RACING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEB
APPEARS POISED TO POSSIBLY BARELY BRUSH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER
DISORGANIZED VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE IL/IN AREA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A VERY WEAK
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS. AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS
AGO...THE COMBO OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT BREEZES HAS FOSTERED
AT LEAST SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BASED ON AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AT LEAST SO FAR ANY FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE AND LIKELY FAVORING TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW AUTOMATED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR
THE CWA HAVE AT LEAST BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE...INCLUDING A LOCALIZED QUARTER MILE AT ORD. AS FOR LOW TEMPS
THIS MORNING...PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
ARE HEADING TOWARD LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AS A
FEW SPOTS HAVE EVEN DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT LOW-MID 50S AND EVEN
CLOSER TO 60 FAR SOUTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM FAIRLY STEADY-
STATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DIRECTED
BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA AREA TOWARD SOUTHERN
AZ. CLOSER TO HOME...A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE ZIPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEB/IA/SD BORDER AREA TOWARD NORTHERN MO HAS HELPED
STRENGTHEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINLY OVER
KS...AND ITS NO COINCIDENCE THAT ITS EXIT REGION INTO THE KS/MO
BORDER REGION IS WHERE THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE BAND OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP.

LOOKING AHEAD AND NOW AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...OBVIOUSLY FOG TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ALTHOUGH FOG IS OFTEN A VERY FICKLE ENTITY...VERY SHORT
TERM VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THINGS
COULD CERTAINLY WORSEN/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD YET THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MAYBE
ON A LOCALIZED BASIS ALMOST ANYWHERE. THINGS WOULD HAVE TO GET
CONSIDERABLE WORSE/WIDESPREAD TO EVEN BEGIN TO CONSIDER ANY KIND
OF FORMAL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 14-15Z/9-10AM
BEFORE WE ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS ON SOME AREAS SEEING
VISIBILITIES NEAR/BELOW 1 MILE AND LOCALLY DENSE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
A MIX OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS-OF FOG WORDING REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

GETTING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS TO THE HEART OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN THEME HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN OBSERVED LATELY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND LARGELY UNEVENTFUL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA DEPARTS WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA BY DAYS END.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PERCEPTIBLE FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN A DRY-DAY CWA-WIDE AS NEARLY ALL MODEL QPF AND REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS SUGGEST...AS ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT
MIGHT MANAGE TO BUILD SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED PER NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES OF
THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 MPH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST. ONCE ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS/FOG
THAT DEVELOPS BURNS OFF...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE A FEW PASSING BATCHES OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...IN OTHER WORDS NO PESKY LOWER DAYTIME STRATUS DECK
ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING AS DID IN FACT
OCCUR YESTERDAY. THE OBVIOUS RESULT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE RISE
IN TEMPS VERSUS LATELY. THAT BEING SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN
1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHILE LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTH UNCHANGED. THE NET RESULT IS LOW
80S ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES AND MAINLY MID 80S
SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER 80S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SUCH AS ROOKS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO GET ANOTHER BOOST IN THE
HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S
MOST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING TONIGHT...THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THINGS
IS THAT IT COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH
AT LEAST LIMITED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IT COULD ALMOST JUST AS EASILY BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. SUCH IS THE FICKLE NATURE OF
NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW-ALOFT SITUATIONS WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS WEAK. SPEAKING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS BUT ACTUALLY MIGHT WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AT LEAST 1 OR 2 VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER/NEAR THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING THIS TIME AROUND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS NOTED IN 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE FORECASTS AND ALSO NOTED IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTANT ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION BASED MAINLY IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. PER VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES REFLECTIVITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP
ALONG THIS ELEVATED CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT EITHER AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING WHILE EXPANDING AT LEAST 20 POPS TO ALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOCUSING HIGHEST 30S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOULD CONVECTION MATERIALIZE...CERTAINLY A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AT LEAST NICKEL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY
LARGER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY
5-10 MPH SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP WORK AGAINST
ANY WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION...ALONG WITH OF COURSE ANY
LOCALIZED MIXING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...AT
LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT
FORECAST. THE EARLIER 00Z NAM SUGGESTED THAT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. MADE VERY LITTLE ALTERATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES...AS
ANOTHER UPWARD CLIMB FROM ONE NIGHT TO THE NEXT CONTINUES...WITH
LOWS AIMED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH...LOW 60S CENTRAL AND MID 60S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SUMMARY...FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...STILL APPEARS TO THE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ARE NOT THAT GOOD AND CHANCES HAVE EVEN FALLEN OFF A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PERIODS WHERE 24HRS EARLIER THEY LOOKING THE
BEST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT WILL BE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MID SEPTEMBER PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS AVERAGING OUT
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. THERE IS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWEST LAYER FROM AROUND AND BELOW 850
MB AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INITIALLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO BE FOG RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF SPLOTCHY QPF. TYPICALLY
THIS COULD BE SPRINKLES...DRIZZLE...OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THIS CASE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED
STRATUS DECK WILL BE BELOW 850 MB AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD SEEDING FROM PASSING MID CLOUDS
GENERATING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
ODDS OF THUNDER ARE LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE TRI CITIES TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AND MODEL BLENDS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL
BE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BE BREAKING OFF A VORT MAX OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A LESS
VIGOROUS WAVE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THAN WAS INDICATED IN MODEL RUNS
24HRS AGO.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RECENT FORECAST RUNS AS SOME
OF THE ENERGY IS BEING LEFT BEHIND OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE IT LEAVES
BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW. MODEL BLENDS HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME IN THIS
PERIOD...AND IT SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. WILL
HAVE TO REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE REMAINING VORT MAX AND MOISTURE WILL BE COMING UP
THROUGH KANSAS AND MIGHT BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER BET AT THIS TIME FOR ODILE RELATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS APPEAR DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AVERAGING OUT IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE/THICKEN WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR RESTRICTED VSBYS IN BR/FOG LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MID
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY





000
FXUS63 KGID 171205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURE ENOUGH...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS GRADUALLY SHOWN ITS HAND
ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...ALONG WITH PRIMARILY
OUR WESTERN-MOST COLUMN OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH IS LIMITED...IT SEEMS THAT COUNTIES WITHIN
OUR CWA ARE MAINLY ON THE FRINGES OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DID RECENTLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HEIGHTEN AWARENESS. IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THE
ONCOMING DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SHORT-FUSE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSIST
OF...FIRSTLY: WHETHER OR NOT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG WILL YET
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND IF SO...WILL IT REMAIN MOSTLY HIT-AND-
MISS OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOME AREAS. SECONDLY: WILL AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FLARE UP THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT...AND IF SO COULD A FEW EVEN BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THIRDLY: ALTHOUGH STEADIER SURFACE BREEZES
SHOULD ACT AGAINST FOG FORMATION A BIT MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VERSUS THIS MORNING...AT LEAST PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN KICKS UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING NO UNEXPECTED ENHANCED CLOUD ISSUES...BY FAR
THE BIG STORY IS THAT HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BREACH THE 80+
MARK NEARLY CWA-WIDE...IN MANY PLACES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 9
DAYS SINCE SEP. 8TH...A PRETTY NOTABLE STRETCH CONSIDERING MOST OF
IT OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...OVERALL
ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...AS ANY WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST ZONES HAS ALL
BUT PASSED BY...AS SEVERAL MODELS CORRECTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD INITIATE AND FOCUS AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE AREA OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AND THIS IN FACT HAS BEEN THE
CASE. MEANWHILE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A RECENTLY FORMED RIBBON
OF LOW STRATUS RACING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEB
APPEARS POISED TO POSSIBLY BARELY BRUSH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER
DISORGANIZED VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE IL/IN AREA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A VERY WEAK
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS. AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS
AGO...THE COMBO OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT BREEZES HAS FOSTERED
AT LEAST SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BASED ON AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AT LEAST SO FAR ANY FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE AND LIKELY FAVORING TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW AUTOMATED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR
THE CWA HAVE AT LEAST BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE...INCLUDING A LOCALIZED QUARTER MILE AT ORD. AS FOR LOW TEMPS
THIS MORNING...PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
ARE HEADING TOWARD LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AS A
FEW SPOTS HAVE EVEN DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT LOW-MID 50S AND EVEN
CLOSER TO 60 FAR SOUTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM FAIRLY STEADY-
STATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DIRECTED
BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA AREA TOWARD SOUTHERN
AZ. CLOSER TO HOME...A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE ZIPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEB/IA/SD BORDER AREA TOWARD NORTHERN MO HAS HELPED
STRENGTHEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINLY OVER
KS...AND ITS NO COINCIDENCE THAT ITS EXIT REGION INTO THE KS/MO
BORDER REGION IS WHERE THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE BAND OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP.

LOOKING AHEAD AND NOW AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...OBVIOUSLY FOG TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ALTHOUGH FOG IS OFTEN A VERY FICKLE ENTITY...VERY SHORT
TERM VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THINGS
COULD CERTAINLY WORSEN/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD YET THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MAYBE
ON A LOCALIZED BASIS ALMOST ANYWHERE. THINGS WOULD HAVE TO GET
CONSIDERABLE WORSE/WIDESPREAD TO EVEN BEGIN TO CONSIDER ANY KIND
OF FORMAL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 14-15Z/9-10AM
BEFORE WE ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS ON SOME AREAS SEEING
VISIBILITIES NEAR/BELOW 1 MILE AND LOCALLY DENSE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
A MIX OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS-OF FOG WORDING REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

GETTING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS TO THE HEART OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN THEME HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN OBSERVED LATELY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND LARGELY UNEVENTFUL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA DEPARTS WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA BY DAYS END.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PERCEPTIBLE FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN A DRY-DAY CWA-WIDE AS NEARLY ALL MODEL QPF AND REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS SUGGEST...AS ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT
MIGHT MANAGE TO BUILD SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED PER NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES OF
THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 MPH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST. ONCE ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS/FOG
THAT DEVELOPS BURNS OFF...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE A FEW PASSING BATCHES OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...IN OTHER WORDS NO PESKY LOWER DAYTIME STRATUS DECK
ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING AS DID IN FACT
OCCUR YESTERDAY. THE OBVIOUS RESULT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE RISE
IN TEMPS VERSUS LATELY. THAT BEING SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN
1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHILE LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTH UNCHANGED. THE NET RESULT IS LOW
80S ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES AND MAINLY MID 80S
SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER 80S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SUCH AS ROOKS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO GET ANOTHER BOOST IN THE
HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S
MOST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING TONIGHT...THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THINGS
IS THAT IT COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH
AT LEAST LIMITED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IT COULD ALMOST JUST AS EASILY BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. SUCH IS THE FICKLE NATURE OF
NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW-ALOFT SITUATIONS WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS WEAK. SPEAKING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS BUT ACTUALLY MIGHT WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AT LEAST 1 OR 2 VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER/NEAR THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING THIS TIME AROUND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS NOTED IN 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE FORECASTS AND ALSO NOTED IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTANT ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION BASED MAINLY IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. PER VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES REFLECTIVITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP
ALONG THIS ELEVATED CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT EITHER AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING WHILE EXPANDING AT LEAST 20 POPS TO ALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOCUSING HIGHEST 30S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOULD CONVECTION MATERIALIZE...CERTAINLY A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AT LEAST NICKEL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY
LARGER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY
5-10 MPH SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP WORK AGAINST
ANY WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION...ALONG WITH OF COURSE ANY
LOCALIZED MIXING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...AT
LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT
FORECAST. THE EARLIER 00Z NAM SUGGESTED THAT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. MADE VERY LITTLE ALTERATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES...AS
ANOTHER UPWARD CLIMB FROM ONE NIGHT TO THE NEXT CONTINUES...WITH
LOWS AIMED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH...LOW 60S CENTRAL AND MID 60S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SUMMARY...FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...STILL APPEARS TO THE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ARE NOT THAT GOOD AND CHANCES HAVE EVEN FALLEN OFF A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PERIODS WHERE 24HRS EARLIER THEY LOOKING THE
BEST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT WILL BE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MID SEPTEMBER PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS AVERAGING OUT
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. THERE IS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWEST LAYER FROM AROUND AND BELOW 850
MB AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INITIALLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO BE FOG RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF SPLOTCHY QPF. TYPICALLY
THIS COULD BE SPRINKLES...DRIZZLE...OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THIS CASE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED
STRATUS DECK WILL BE BELOW 850 MB AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD SEEDING FROM PASSING MID CLOUDS
GENERATING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
ODDS OF THUNDER ARE LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE TRI CITIES TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AND MODEL BLENDS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL
BE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BE BREAKING OFF A VORT MAX OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A LESS
VIGOROUS WAVE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THAN WAS INDICATED IN MODEL RUNS
24HRS AGO.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RECENT FORECAST RUNS AS SOME
OF THE ENERGY IS BEING LEFT BEHIND OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE IT LEAVES
BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW. MODEL BLENDS HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME IN THIS
PERIOD...AND IT SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. WILL
HAVE TO REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE REMAINING VORT MAX AND MOISTURE WILL BE COMING UP
THROUGH KANSAS AND MIGHT BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER BET AT THIS TIME FOR ODILE RELATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS APPEAR DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AVERAGING OUT IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE 12-18 HOURS OF THE VALID PERIOD...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS RIGHT
AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AT ONE OR BOTH TERMINALS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
RANGE TO EVEN JUSTIFY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS). STARTING
WITH THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
THAT AT LEAST LIGHT FOG AND OR BRIEF LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT IT HAS REMAINED AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST AND/OR SOUTH
OF THE AREA THUS FAR. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...WILL RUN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AMENDMENTS VERY POSSIBLE.
ONCE ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS...SEVERAL HOURS OF
HIGH-CONFIDENCE VFR COMMENCES. THEN LATE TONIGHT...MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW COULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CATEGORIES IN EACH STARTING AT 08Z. SURFACE
BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 10KT AND FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 171205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURE ENOUGH...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS GRADUALLY SHOWN ITS HAND
ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES...ALONG WITH PRIMARILY
OUR WESTERN-MOST COLUMN OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH IS LIMITED...IT SEEMS THAT COUNTIES WITHIN
OUR CWA ARE MAINLY ON THE FRINGES OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST KS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DID RECENTLY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HEIGHTEN AWARENESS. IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THE
ONCOMING DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SHORT-FUSE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSIST
OF...FIRSTLY: WHETHER OR NOT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG WILL YET
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND IF SO...WILL IT REMAIN MOSTLY HIT-AND-
MISS OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOME AREAS. SECONDLY: WILL AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FLARE UP THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT...AND IF SO COULD A FEW EVEN BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THIRDLY: ALTHOUGH STEADIER SURFACE BREEZES
SHOULD ACT AGAINST FOG FORMATION A BIT MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VERSUS THIS MORNING...AT LEAST PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN KICKS UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING NO UNEXPECTED ENHANCED CLOUD ISSUES...BY FAR
THE BIG STORY IS THAT HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BREACH THE 80+
MARK NEARLY CWA-WIDE...IN MANY PLACES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 9
DAYS SINCE SEP. 8TH...A PRETTY NOTABLE STRETCH CONSIDERING MOST OF
IT OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...OVERALL
ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...AS ANY WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST ZONES HAS ALL
BUT PASSED BY...AS SEVERAL MODELS CORRECTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD INITIATE AND FOCUS AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE AREA OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AND THIS IN FACT HAS BEEN THE
CASE. MEANWHILE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A RECENTLY FORMED RIBBON
OF LOW STRATUS RACING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEB
APPEARS POISED TO POSSIBLY BARELY BRUSH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER
DISORGANIZED VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE IL/IN AREA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A VERY WEAK
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS. AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS
AGO...THE COMBO OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT BREEZES HAS FOSTERED
AT LEAST SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BASED ON AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AT LEAST SO FAR ANY FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE AND LIKELY FAVORING TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW AUTOMATED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR
THE CWA HAVE AT LEAST BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE...INCLUDING A LOCALIZED QUARTER MILE AT ORD. AS FOR LOW TEMPS
THIS MORNING...PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
ARE HEADING TOWARD LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AS A
FEW SPOTS HAVE EVEN DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT LOW-MID 50S AND EVEN
CLOSER TO 60 FAR SOUTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM FAIRLY STEADY-
STATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DIRECTED
BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA AREA TOWARD SOUTHERN
AZ. CLOSER TO HOME...A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE ZIPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEB/IA/SD BORDER AREA TOWARD NORTHERN MO HAS HELPED
STRENGTHEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINLY OVER
KS...AND ITS NO COINCIDENCE THAT ITS EXIT REGION INTO THE KS/MO
BORDER REGION IS WHERE THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE BAND OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP.

LOOKING AHEAD AND NOW AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...OBVIOUSLY FOG TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ALTHOUGH FOG IS OFTEN A VERY FICKLE ENTITY...VERY SHORT
TERM VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THINGS
COULD CERTAINLY WORSEN/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD YET THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MAYBE
ON A LOCALIZED BASIS ALMOST ANYWHERE. THINGS WOULD HAVE TO GET
CONSIDERABLE WORSE/WIDESPREAD TO EVEN BEGIN TO CONSIDER ANY KIND
OF FORMAL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 14-15Z/9-10AM
BEFORE WE ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS ON SOME AREAS SEEING
VISIBILITIES NEAR/BELOW 1 MILE AND LOCALLY DENSE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
A MIX OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS-OF FOG WORDING REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

GETTING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS TO THE HEART OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN THEME HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN OBSERVED LATELY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND LARGELY UNEVENTFUL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA DEPARTS WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA BY DAYS END.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PERCEPTIBLE FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN A DRY-DAY CWA-WIDE AS NEARLY ALL MODEL QPF AND REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS SUGGEST...AS ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT
MIGHT MANAGE TO BUILD SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED PER NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES OF
THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 MPH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST. ONCE ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS/FOG
THAT DEVELOPS BURNS OFF...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE A FEW PASSING BATCHES OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...IN OTHER WORDS NO PESKY LOWER DAYTIME STRATUS DECK
ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING AS DID IN FACT
OCCUR YESTERDAY. THE OBVIOUS RESULT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE RISE
IN TEMPS VERSUS LATELY. THAT BEING SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN
1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHILE LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTH UNCHANGED. THE NET RESULT IS LOW
80S ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES AND MAINLY MID 80S
SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER 80S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SUCH AS ROOKS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO GET ANOTHER BOOST IN THE
HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S
MOST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING TONIGHT...THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THINGS
IS THAT IT COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH
AT LEAST LIMITED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IT COULD ALMOST JUST AS EASILY BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. SUCH IS THE FICKLE NATURE OF
NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW-ALOFT SITUATIONS WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS WEAK. SPEAKING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS BUT ACTUALLY MIGHT WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AT LEAST 1 OR 2 VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER/NEAR THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING THIS TIME AROUND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS NOTED IN 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE FORECASTS AND ALSO NOTED IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTANT ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION BASED MAINLY IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. PER VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES REFLECTIVITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP
ALONG THIS ELEVATED CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT EITHER AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING WHILE EXPANDING AT LEAST 20 POPS TO ALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOCUSING HIGHEST 30S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOULD CONVECTION MATERIALIZE...CERTAINLY A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AT LEAST NICKEL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY
LARGER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY
5-10 MPH SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP WORK AGAINST
ANY WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION...ALONG WITH OF COURSE ANY
LOCALIZED MIXING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...AT
LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT
FORECAST. THE EARLIER 00Z NAM SUGGESTED THAT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. MADE VERY LITTLE ALTERATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES...AS
ANOTHER UPWARD CLIMB FROM ONE NIGHT TO THE NEXT CONTINUES...WITH
LOWS AIMED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH...LOW 60S CENTRAL AND MID 60S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SUMMARY...FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...STILL APPEARS TO THE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ARE NOT THAT GOOD AND CHANCES HAVE EVEN FALLEN OFF A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PERIODS WHERE 24HRS EARLIER THEY LOOKING THE
BEST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT WILL BE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MID SEPTEMBER PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS AVERAGING OUT
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. THERE IS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWEST LAYER FROM AROUND AND BELOW 850
MB AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INITIALLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO BE FOG RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF SPLOTCHY QPF. TYPICALLY
THIS COULD BE SPRINKLES...DRIZZLE...OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THIS CASE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED
STRATUS DECK WILL BE BELOW 850 MB AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD SEEDING FROM PASSING MID CLOUDS
GENERATING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
ODDS OF THUNDER ARE LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE TRI CITIES TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AND MODEL BLENDS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL
BE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BE BREAKING OFF A VORT MAX OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A LESS
VIGOROUS WAVE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THAN WAS INDICATED IN MODEL RUNS
24HRS AGO.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RECENT FORECAST RUNS AS SOME
OF THE ENERGY IS BEING LEFT BEHIND OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE IT LEAVES
BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW. MODEL BLENDS HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME IN THIS
PERIOD...AND IT SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. WILL
HAVE TO REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE REMAINING VORT MAX AND MOISTURE WILL BE COMING UP
THROUGH KANSAS AND MIGHT BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER BET AT THIS TIME FOR ODILE RELATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS APPEAR DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AVERAGING OUT IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE 12-18 HOURS OF THE VALID PERIOD...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS RIGHT
AWAY THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AT ONE OR BOTH TERMINALS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
RANGE TO EVEN JUSTIFY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS). STARTING
WITH THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
THAT AT LEAST LIGHT FOG AND OR BRIEF LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BUT IT HAS REMAINED AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WEST AND/OR SOUTH
OF THE AREA THUS FAR. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...WILL RUN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AMENDMENTS VERY POSSIBLE.
ONCE ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS...SEVERAL HOURS OF
HIGH-CONFIDENCE VFR COMMENCES. THEN LATE TONIGHT...MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW COULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CATEGORIES IN EACH STARTING AT 08Z. SURFACE
BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 10KT AND FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 170946
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSIST
OF...FIRSTLY: WHETHER OR NOT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG WILL YET
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND IF SO...WILL IT REMAIN MOSTLY HIT-AND-
MISS OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOME AREAS. SECONDLY: WILL AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FLARE UP THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT...AND IF SO COULD A FEW EVEN BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THIRDLY: ALTHOUGH STEADIER SURFACE BREEZES
SHOULD ACT AGAINST FOG FORMATION A BIT MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VERSUS THIS MORNING...AT LEAST PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN KICKS UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING NO UNEXPECTED ENHANCED CLOUD ISSUES...BY FAR
THE BIG STORY IS THAT HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BREACH THE 80+
MARK NEARLY CWA-WIDE...IN MANY PLACES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 9
DAYS SINCE SEP. 8TH...A PRETTY NOTABLE STRETCH CONSIDERING MOST OF
IT OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...OVERALL
ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...AS ANY WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST ZONES HAS ALL
BUT PASSED BY...AS SEVERAL MODELS CORRECTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD INITIATE AND FOCUS AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE AREA OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AND THIS IN FACT HAS BEEN THE
CASE. MEANWHILE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A RECENTLY FORMED RIBBON
OF LOW STRATUS RACING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEB
APPEARS POISED TO POSSIBLY BARELY BRUSH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER
DISORGANIZED VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE IL/IN AREA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A VERY WEAK
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS. AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS
AGO...THE COMBO OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT BREEZES HAS FOSTERED
AT LEAST SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BASED ON AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AT LEAST SO FAR ANY FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE AND LIKELY FAVORING TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW AUTOMATED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR
THE CWA HAVE AT LEAST BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE...INCLUDING A LOCALIZED QUARTER MILE AT ORD. AS FOR LOW TEMPS
THIS MORNING...PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
ARE HEADING TOWARD LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AS A
FEW SPOTS HAVE EVEN DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT LOW-MID 50S AND EVEN
CLOSER TO 60 FAR SOUTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM FAIRLY STEADY-
STATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DIRECTED
BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA AREA TOWARD SOUTHERN
AZ. CLOSER TO HOME...A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE ZIPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEB/IA/SD BORDER AREA TOWARD NORTHERN MO HAS HELPED
STRENGTHEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINLY OVER
KS...AND ITS NO COINCIDENCE THAT ITS EXIT REGION INTO THE KS/MO
BORDER REGION IS WHERE THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE BAND OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP.

LOOKING AHEAD AND NOW AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...OBVIOUSLY FOG TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ALTHOUGH FOG IS OFTEN A VERY FICKLE ENTITY...VERY SHORT
TERM VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THINGS
COULD CERTAINLY WORSEN/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD YET THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MAYBE
ON A LOCALIZED BASIS ALMOST ANYWHERE. THINGS WOULD HAVE TO GET
CONSIDERABLE WORSE/WIDESPREAD TO EVEN BEGIN TO CONSIDER ANY KIND
OF FORMAL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 14-15Z/9-10AM
BEFORE WE ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS ON SOME AREAS SEEING
VISIBILITIES NEAR/BELOW 1 MILE AND LOCALLY DENSE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
A MIX OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS-OF FOG WORDING REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

GETTING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS TO THE HEART OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN THEME HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN OBSERVED LATELY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND LARGELY UNEVENTFUL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA DEPARTS WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA BY DAYS END.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PERCEPTIBLE FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN A DRY-DAY CWA-WIDE AS NEARLY ALL MODEL QPF AND REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS SUGGEST...AS ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT
MIGHT MANAGE TO BUILD SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED PER NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES OF
THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 MPH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST. ONCE ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS/FOG
THAT DEVELOPS BURNS OFF...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE A FEW PASSING BATCHES OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...IN OTHER WORDS NO PESKY LOWER DAYTIME STRATUS DECK
ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING AS DID IN FACT
OCCUR YESTERDAY. THE OBVIOUS RESULT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE RISE
IN TEMPS VERSUS LATELY. THAT BEING SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN
1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHILE LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTH UNCHANGED. THE NET RESULT IS LOW
80S ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES AND MAINLY MID 80S
SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER 80S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SUCH AS ROOKS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO GET ANOTHER BOOST IN THE
HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S
MOST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING TONIGHT...THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THINGS
IS THAT IT COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH
AT LEAST LIMITED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IT COULD ALMOST JUST AS EASILY BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. SUCH IS THE FICKLE NATURE OF
NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW-ALOFT SITUATIONS WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS WEAK. SPEAKING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS BUT ACTUALLY MIGHT WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AT LEAST 1 OR 2 VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER/NEAR THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING THIS TIME AROUND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS NOTED IN 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE FORECASTS AND ALSO NOTED IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTANT ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION BASED MAINLY IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. PER VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES REFLECTIVITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP
ALONG THIS ELEVATED CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT EITHER AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING WHILE EXPANDING AT LEAST 20 POPS TO ALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOCUSING HIGHEST 30S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOULD CONVECTION MATERIALIZE...CERTAINLY A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AT LEAST NICKEL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY
LARGER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY
5-10 MPH SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP WORK AGAINST
ANY WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION...ALONG WITH OF COURSE ANY
LOCALIZED MIXING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...AT
LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT
FORECAST. THE EARLIER 00Z NAM SUGGESTED THAT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. MADE VERY LITTLE ALTERATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES...AS
ANOTHER UPWARD CLIMB FROM ONE NIGHT TO THE NEXT CONTINUES...WITH
LOWS AIMED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH...LOW 60S CENTRAL AND MID 60S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SUMMARY...FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...STILL APPEARS TO THE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ARE NOT THAT GOOD AND CHANCES HAVE EVEN FALLEN OFF A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PERIODS WHERE 24HRS EARLIER THEY LOOKING THE
BEST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT WILL BE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MID SEPTEMBER PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS AVERAGING OUT
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. THERE IS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWEST LAYER FROM AROUND AND BELOW 850
MB AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INITIALLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO BE FOG RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF SPLOTCHY QPF. TYPICALLY
THIS COULD BE SPRINKLES...DRIZZLE...OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THIS CASE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED
STRATUS DECK WILL BE BELOW 850 MB AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD SEEDING FROM PASSING MID CLOUDS
GENERATING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
ODDS OF THUNDER ARE LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE TRI CITIES TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AND MODEL BLENDS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL
BE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BE BREAKING OFF A VORT MAX OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A LESS
VIGOROUS WAVE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THAN WAS INDICATED IN MODEL RUNS
24HRS AGO.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RECENT FORECAST RUNS AS SOME
OF THE ENERGY IS BEING LEFT BEHIND OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE IT LEAVES
BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW. MODEL BLENDS HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME IN THIS
PERIOD...AND IT SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. WILL
HAVE TO REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE REMAINING VORT MAX AND MOISTURE WILL BE COMING UP
THROUGH KANSAS AND MIGHT BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER BET AT THIS TIME FOR ODILE RELATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS APPEAR DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AVERAGING OUT IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN PREVALENT VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
MAINLY WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. OPTED TO REMAIN
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN DEPICTING A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH SITES 10Z-14Z...BUT OF COURSE
THIS IS JUST A BEST STAB AT VISIBILITY...AS CONSIDERABLE
FLUCTUATION ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE (FROM VFR TO IFR OR
WORSE) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AT ANY RATE...ONCE ANY
POSSIBLE MORNING FOG VACATES EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIGHT FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK
FOR A LOW CEILING COULD MATERIALIZE SHORTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...IT IS ESSENTIALLY NIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THERE IS MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE AT PLAY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY EVEN A
VICINITY (VCTS) MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT AND FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT MOST
TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





000
FXUS63 KGID 170946
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSIST
OF...FIRSTLY: WHETHER OR NOT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG WILL YET
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND IF SO...WILL IT REMAIN MOSTLY HIT-AND-
MISS OR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOME AREAS. SECONDLY: WILL AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FLARE UP THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT...AND IF SO COULD A FEW EVEN BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. THIRDLY: ALTHOUGH STEADIER SURFACE BREEZES
SHOULD ACT AGAINST FOG FORMATION A BIT MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
VERSUS THIS MORNING...AT LEAST PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN KICKS UP ANOTHER NOTCH.
TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING NO UNEXPECTED ENHANCED CLOUD ISSUES...BY FAR
THE BIG STORY IS THAT HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BREACH THE 80+
MARK NEARLY CWA-WIDE...IN MANY PLACES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 9
DAYS SINCE SEP. 8TH...A PRETTY NOTABLE STRETCH CONSIDERING MOST OF
IT OCCURRED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...OVERALL
ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...AS ANY WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST ZONES HAS ALL
BUT PASSED BY...AS SEVERAL MODELS CORRECTLY SUGGESTED THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD INITIATE AND FOCUS AT LEAST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE AREA OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AND THIS IN FACT HAS BEEN THE
CASE. MEANWHILE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH A RECENTLY FORMED RIBBON
OF LOW STRATUS RACING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL KS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEB
APPEARS POISED TO POSSIBLY BARELY BRUSH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER
DISORGANIZED VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA...AS THE LOCAL AREA LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE IL/IN AREA...AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A VERY WEAK
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST KS. AS SUSPECTED 24 HOURS
AGO...THE COMBO OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT BREEZES HAS FOSTERED
AT LEAST SOME LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BASED ON AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AT LEAST SO FAR ANY FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY HIT AND MISS
IN NATURE AND LIKELY FAVORING TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW AUTOMATED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR
THE CWA HAVE AT LEAST BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE...INCLUDING A LOCALIZED QUARTER MILE AT ORD. AS FOR LOW TEMPS
THIS MORNING...PARTS OF ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA
ARE HEADING TOWARD LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AS A
FEW SPOTS HAVE EVEN DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT LOW-MID 50S AND EVEN
CLOSER TO 60 FAR SOUTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM FAIRLY STEADY-
STATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DIRECTED
BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH. WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA AREA TOWARD SOUTHERN
AZ. CLOSER TO HOME...A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE ZIPPING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEB/IA/SD BORDER AREA TOWARD NORTHERN MO HAS HELPED
STRENGTHEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAINLY OVER
KS...AND ITS NO COINCIDENCE THAT ITS EXIT REGION INTO THE KS/MO
BORDER REGION IS WHERE THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE BAND OF MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP.

LOOKING AHEAD AND NOW AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT FEW HOURS
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...OBVIOUSLY FOG TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. ALTHOUGH FOG IS OFTEN A VERY FICKLE ENTITY...VERY SHORT
TERM VISIBILITY PROGS FROM THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THINGS
COULD CERTAINLY WORSEN/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD YET THIS MORNING
PRIMARILY IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT MAYBE
ON A LOCALIZED BASIS ALMOST ANYWHERE. THINGS WOULD HAVE TO GET
CONSIDERABLE WORSE/WIDESPREAD TO EVEN BEGIN TO CONSIDER ANY KIND
OF FORMAL ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 14-15Z/9-10AM
BEFORE WE ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS ON SOME AREAS SEEING
VISIBILITIES NEAR/BELOW 1 MILE AND LOCALLY DENSE. THE BOTTOM LINE:
A MIX OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS-OF FOG WORDING REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

GETTING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS TO THE HEART OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD...THE MAIN THEME HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN OBSERVED LATELY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND LARGELY UNEVENTFUL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA DEPARTS WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA BY DAYS END.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PERCEPTIBLE FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
IN A DRY-DAY CWA-WIDE AS NEARLY ALL MODEL QPF AND REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS SUGGEST...AS ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT
MIGHT MANAGE TO BUILD SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED PER NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES OF
THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 MPH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST. ONCE ANY MORNING LOWER STRATUS/FOG
THAT DEVELOPS BURNS OFF...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY DESPITE A FEW PASSING BATCHES OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...IN OTHER WORDS NO PESKY LOWER DAYTIME STRATUS DECK
ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING AS DID IN FACT
OCCUR YESTERDAY. THE OBVIOUS RESULT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE RISE
IN TEMPS VERSUS LATELY. THAT BEING SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN
1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WHILE LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTH UNCHANGED. THE NET RESULT IS LOW
80S ACROSS MOST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES AND MAINLY MID 80S
SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER 80S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SUCH AS ROOKS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO GET ANOTHER BOOST IN THE
HUMIDITY DEPARTMENT AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 60S
MOST AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING TONIGHT...THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THINGS
IS THAT IT COULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH
AT LEAST LIMITED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...OR IT COULD ALMOST JUST AS EASILY BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. SUCH IS THE FICKLE NATURE OF
NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW-ALOFT SITUATIONS WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
REMAINS WEAK. SPEAKING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS BUT ACTUALLY MIGHT WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY AS THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES EDGES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AT LEAST 1 OR 2 VERY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER/NEAR THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING THIS TIME AROUND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS NOTED IN 315K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE FORECASTS AND ALSO NOTED IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTANT ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION BASED MAINLY IN THE 800-700MB
LAYER. PER VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND HIGHER-RES REFLECTIVITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP
ALONG THIS ELEVATED CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT EITHER AND HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 20 POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING WHILE EXPANDING AT LEAST 20 POPS TO ALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT FOCUSING HIGHEST 30S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOULD CONVECTION MATERIALIZE...CERTAINLY A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AT LEAST NICKEL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY
LARGER CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY
5-10 MPH SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP WORK AGAINST
ANY WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION...ALONG WITH OF COURSE ANY
LOCALIZED MIXING FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...AT
LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT
FORECAST. THE EARLIER 00Z NAM SUGGESTED THAT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD
MATERIALIZE AS WELL...BUT THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. MADE VERY LITTLE ALTERATION TO LOW TEMPERATURES...AS
ANOTHER UPWARD CLIMB FROM ONE NIGHT TO THE NEXT CONTINUES...WITH
LOWS AIMED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH...LOW 60S CENTRAL AND MID 60S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SUMMARY...FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...STILL APPEARS TO THE
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ARE NOT THAT GOOD AND CHANCES HAVE EVEN FALLEN OFF A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PERIODS WHERE 24HRS EARLIER THEY LOOKING THE
BEST...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT WILL BE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MID SEPTEMBER PERIOD WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS AVERAGING OUT
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. THERE IS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWEST LAYER FROM AROUND AND BELOW 850
MB AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK COULD
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INITIALLY THIS STRATUS DECK MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO BE FOG RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GENERATE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF SPLOTCHY QPF. TYPICALLY
THIS COULD BE SPRINKLES...DRIZZLE...OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THIS CASE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SATURATED
STRATUS DECK WILL BE BELOW 850 MB AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE. THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD SEEDING FROM PASSING MID CLOUDS
GENERATING A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
ODDS OF THUNDER ARE LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WHERE STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE TRI CITIES TO THE
MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AND MODEL BLENDS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL
BE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BE BREAKING OFF A VORT MAX OVER CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A LESS
VIGOROUS WAVE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THAN WAS INDICATED IN MODEL RUNS
24HRS AGO.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RECENT FORECAST RUNS AS SOME
OF THE ENERGY IS BEING LEFT BEHIND OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE IT LEAVES
BEHIND A CUT OFF LOW. MODEL BLENDS HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME IN THIS
PERIOD...AND IT SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. WILL
HAVE TO REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE REMAINING VORT MAX AND MOISTURE WILL BE COMING UP
THROUGH KANSAS AND MIGHT BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER BET AT THIS TIME FOR ODILE RELATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT WAVE SLIDING DOWN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY...BUT MOST
AREAS APPEAR DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AVERAGING OUT IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN PREVALENT VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
MAINLY WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. OPTED TO REMAIN
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN DEPICTING A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH SITES 10Z-14Z...BUT OF COURSE
THIS IS JUST A BEST STAB AT VISIBILITY...AS CONSIDERABLE
FLUCTUATION ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE (FROM VFR TO IFR OR
WORSE) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AT ANY RATE...ONCE ANY
POSSIBLE MORNING FOG VACATES EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIGHT FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK
FOR A LOW CEILING COULD MATERIALIZE SHORTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...IT IS ESSENTIALLY NIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THERE IS MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE AT PLAY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY EVEN A
VICINITY (VCTS) MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT AND FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT MOST
TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 170600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT SHOWED WEAKENING ODILE MOVING FM BAJA INTO OLD
MEXICO...A TROUGH WAS OFF THE WEST COAST IN THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN
PLACE IN BETWEEN A SFC LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND RIDGE
EAST OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.  AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS ADVECTED NORTH AND
EASTWARD FM KS AND SW NEBRASKA AND THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...MOVING OUT DURING THE EVENING.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE VCNTY OF OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THRU FLOW AND IN
PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL WAA. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS
SUGGEST BETTER CHCS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
CWA...BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW/BUFFER POPS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1500 J/KG AND
40KTS OF SHEAR IS PRESENT.

ALSO TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND LLVL
MOISTURE/HIGH DPS ADVECT NORTH.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PINPOINT OUR
WESTERN CWA FOR THE LOWER VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR AREAS VS PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN BY MID DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH H85 READINGS RISING A SOLID 5C COMPARED TO TODAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE H85 AND
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR IN THE 80S E/W WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE
WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LINGER A LITTLE INTO THURSDAY AND HAVE KEPT A
FEW SPRINKLES IN FOR THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY.

THE MAIN INTEREST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH IS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE BECOMING CLOSER WITH A FURTHER SOUTH PATH FOR THE UPPER
LOW. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN PREVALENT VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
MAINLY WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. OPTED TO REMAIN
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN DEPICTING A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH SITES 10Z-14Z...BUT OF COURSE
THIS IS JUST A BEST STAB AT VISIBILITY...AS CONSIDERABLE
FLUCTUATION ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE (FROM VFR TO IFR OR
WORSE) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AT ANY RATE...ONCE ANY
POSSIBLE MORNING FOG VACATES EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIGHT FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK
FOR A LOW CEILING COULD MATERIALIZE SHORTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...IT IS ESSENTIALLY NIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THERE IS MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE AT PLAY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY EVEN A
VICINITY (VCTS) MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT AND FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT MOST
TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 170600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT SHOWED WEAKENING ODILE MOVING FM BAJA INTO OLD
MEXICO...A TROUGH WAS OFF THE WEST COAST IN THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS IN
PLACE IN BETWEEN A SFC LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND RIDGE
EAST OF THE MO/MS RIVERS.  AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS ADVECTED NORTH AND
EASTWARD FM KS AND SW NEBRASKA AND THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...MOVING OUT DURING THE EVENING.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE VCNTY OF OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THRU FLOW AND IN
PRESENCE OF DECENT MID LEVEL WAA. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS
SUGGEST BETTER CHCS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
CWA...BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW/BUFFER POPS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1500 J/KG AND
40KTS OF SHEAR IS PRESENT.

ALSO TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND LLVL
MOISTURE/HIGH DPS ADVECT NORTH.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PINPOINT OUR
WESTERN CWA FOR THE LOWER VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR AREAS VS PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE WED MORNING...BUT A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN BY MID DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH H85 READINGS RISING A SOLID 5C COMPARED TO TODAY.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE H85 AND
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR IN THE 80S E/W WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE
WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LINGER A LITTLE INTO THURSDAY AND HAVE KEPT A
FEW SPRINKLES IN FOR THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY.

THE MAIN INTEREST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH IS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS IS THERE ARE A FEW
LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE BECOMING CLOSER WITH A FURTHER SOUTH PATH FOR THE UPPER
LOW. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN PREVALENT VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
MAINLY WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. OPTED TO REMAIN
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN DEPICTING A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH SITES 10Z-14Z...BUT OF COURSE
THIS IS JUST A BEST STAB AT VISIBILITY...AS CONSIDERABLE
FLUCTUATION ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE (FROM VFR TO IFR OR
WORSE) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AT ANY RATE...ONCE ANY
POSSIBLE MORNING FOG VACATES EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
AT LEAST LIGHT FOG AND MAYBE SOME STRATUS WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK
FOR A LOW CEILING COULD MATERIALIZE SHORTLY BEYOND THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...IT IS ESSENTIALLY NIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THERE IS MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE AT PLAY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY EVEN A
VICINITY (VCTS) MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 10KT AND FROM AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT MOST
TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH





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