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000
FXUS65 KGJT 011348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. SOME SNOW FALLING ABOVE THE 10K MARK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND CDOT REPORTS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON VAIL PASS. AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 9K...WHICH IS HANDLED
IN CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. WILL ALSO EVALUATE THE NEED TO
EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCHES INTO OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS AS NEW
MODEL DATA ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011042
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011042
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

NEXT DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NE UTAH HAS
ALLOWED PCPN AND STORMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAMDNG25 HAVE
DEPICTED THIS TREND. ADJUSTED GRIDDED PCPN FORECAST TO REFLECT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NW
COLORADO WITH THE SRN TAIL REACHING THE WRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING (WITH DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN UTAH). THE RAP
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...BUT THE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
HAS STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WET BULB ZERO
LINE DROPS BELOW 10K FEET WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO THE
IDEA THAT THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FEET
SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF VALUES FOR THE NWRN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS...GRAND MESA...ELKS/WEST ELKS AND MONARCH...HENCE
HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9K FEET
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS EVENING THE NEW COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE -21C COLD CORE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLORADO ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE
NEW AIR MASS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST ACROSS NW COLORADO THAT WILL
EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEY ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL FASTER THAN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR LITTLE THREAT OF FOG...THOUGH SOME RIVER FOG
MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THURSDAY IN A DRY NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND NW GRADIENT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST KEEPING THE
REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES WELL NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS MEANS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...A SLOW WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPS TO CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-010-012-013-018.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010416
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS ARE DISORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...BUT THIS COLD
POOL LAGS BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS STILL
FITS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

OUR CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIALLY ADDING OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES
TO THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OF THE SEASON. UTAH ZONE
23/THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL STAY THERE IN COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO WE WILL ADD THIS ZONE
TO THE ADVISORY.

TWO OTHER ZONES OF CONCERN ARE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ZONE 3/
THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND ZONE 9/ THE GRAND MESA. ZONE 3
IS ALL BELOW 9000 FEET AND THUS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW.
ZONE 9 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT THE
NAM IS SHOWING A QUICK DRYING OF THE AIR MASS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ZONE 18/ THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TOO SHOW A QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT THESE ZONES
IN FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010416
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS ARE DISORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...BUT THIS COLD
POOL LAGS BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS STILL
FITS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

OUR CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIALLY ADDING OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES
TO THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OF THE SEASON. UTAH ZONE
23/THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND WILL STAY THERE IN COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SO WE WILL ADD THIS ZONE
TO THE ADVISORY.

TWO OTHER ZONES OF CONCERN ARE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ZONE 3/
THE ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AND ZONE 9/ THE GRAND MESA. ZONE 3
IS ALL BELOW 9000 FEET AND THUS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW.
ZONE 9 HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BUT THE
NAM IS SHOWING A QUICK DRYING OF THE AIR MASS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ZONE 18/ THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TOO SHOW A QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT THESE ZONES
IN FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z. NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR 09-15Z MTNS WILL OBSCURED AT TIMES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. KVEL KCAG KHDN KSBS ALL WILL SEE PERIODS OF VSBY
BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 AFTER 09Z. FOR KCNY KGJT KMTJ KTEX KRIL KASE
KEGE EXPECT DETERIORATING CIGS AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
18Z OF VSBY BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 040 IN -SHRA/-TSRA. KTEX KEGE KASE
COULD ALL SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 030 IN
-SHSN/-TSSN AFTER 21Z. KDRO WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS 18-23Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302149
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JUANS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A BREAK...THE
SECOND WAVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THE SECOND WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH...SO SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS DECREASE SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID EVENING.

WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS AT SOME LOCATIONS...
KEEPING ALL THE HIGHER VALLEYS ABOVE FREEZING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AGAIN DROPPED BELOW FREEZING AT GUNNISON FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV AND
MET WERE BOTH TOO COLD THERE LAST NIGHT. AND WITH THE WAVE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY WEDNESDAY/S UPCOMING COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH...FEEL THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE MORE INTERESTING STORY IS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS NOW HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FASTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
JUST CROSSED INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT BREAK OF DAY. THEN WILL
SWEEP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN EDGE BY THE EVENING. ONE CAVEAT OF NOTE HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 SHOWS THE FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS PORTION TAKING AIM AT THE N-S CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MOAB-GRAND JUNCTION AREAS. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR
NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY
IN THE TRACK.

THEREFORE THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN GOOD CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THE FAVORED AREAS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DRIVE THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO AROUND 9000
FEET. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT BY SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THE EVENING. THIS AND THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE
FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN-TOP FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATING THERE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
EARLY SEASON EVENT FROM 9 AM WED MORNING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. COVERED IN
THE ADVISORY ARE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF
VAIL PASS AND NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO OUR EAST. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FOR A VERY COOL MORNING AS
CLOUDS DIMINISH. AT 700MB...MODELS SHOW 12Z TEMPS WILL HAVE FALLEN
TO -4C OVER THE NORTH AND AROUND ZERO C ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
COLORADO VALLEYS...AND THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. HOWEVER OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...OR MOISTURE MAY ERODE SLOWER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
TRAILING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BRING IN A DRY FORECAST ON NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS WARMING
ALOFT WILL CREATE AN INVERSION WHICH MAY KEEP COOLER AIR TRAPPED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER
UNDER THIS RIDGE BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE TOUCHING SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTER 19Z. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IFR WILL DOMINATE AT AREA
AIRPORTS...BUT A PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA MAY IMPACT KRIL...KASE...
KHDN...KHDN...KSBS...KEGE. OVER THE SOUTH...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ001-002-005-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301706
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
WAVES PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND
WILL BE A BIGGER PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTER 19Z. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IFR WILL DOMINATE AT AREA
AIRPORTS...BUT A PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA MAY IMPACT KRIL...KASE...
KHDN...KHDN...KSBS...KEGE. OVER THE SOUTH...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301706
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
WAVES PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT
WAVE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND
WILL BE A BIGGER PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE TO EAST I-70
CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTER 19Z. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IFR WILL DOMINATE AT AREA
AIRPORTS...BUT A PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA MAY IMPACT KRIL...KASE...
KHDN...KHDN...KSBS...KEGE. OVER THE SOUTH...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TERRAIN LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS. A
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA COULD IMPACT KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS OVER SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA WILL LINGER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

-SHRA/-TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TERRAIN LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VIS. A
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA COULD IMPACT KRIL...KASE...AND KEGE.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS OVER SE UTAH AND SW
COLORADO...BUT A SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA WILL LINGER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN STATES WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
THE AIR MASS IS DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
LOWER TODAY...OR THE DEEP MOIST LAYER IS NOT AS PREVALENT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW...RAP13 AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NRN HIGH COUNTRY. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST BUT THE NEXT STRONGER
NORTHERN PACIFIC WAVE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOW SOME FORCING ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO LIGHTNING WILL BE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE.

WEDNESDAY THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS. THE POLAR FRONT JET STRETCHES ALONG THE CO-NM STATE LINE
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEARLY
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NE UT-NW CO
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WORKS QUICKLY SOUTH OF I-70 BY NOON AND
THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NW COLORADO WILL PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS THERE. THE COLD ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. A -20C COLD CORE OVER THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 8KFT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS STORM
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF A GOOD MOISTURE TAP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS TO
NNW FAVORING NORTH-FACING SLOPES WITH SNOW. THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS THE COLORADO NORTHERN HIGH VALLEYS WITH
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF THE COOL SEASON. SNOW
LINGERS ALONG THE COLORADO SPINE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
END BY AROUND SUNRISE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN
INTO DURANGO-PAGOSA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS THREATENED WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE SWRN CONUS. MAIN WESTERLY JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO AND ALLOWS TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300349
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300349
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND
KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
613 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CLEARED OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
CO...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KCNY...KVEL...KGJT...
KDRO AND KTEX OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NW MTS
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
613 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH THAT
MOVED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER AND AREA
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KGUC TO KRIL TO KCAG. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CLEARED OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
CO...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KCNY...KVEL...KGJT...
KDRO AND KTEX OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NW MTS
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. ISOLATED REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HUG
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT CAUSING LOCAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CAUSE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
KEGE...KRIL...KASE...AND KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER WILL SWING ACROSS SW CO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE 03Z. MTNS WILL ALSO BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY. VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED 12Z-18Z TUE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ENERGETIC UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WAS
FINALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL UT ACROSS SW CO IN THE FAVORED LEFT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET CUTTING ACROSS NW NM. SOME STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW DOWN AS LOW AS 9000-9500 FT ELEVATION PER WEBCAMS AND
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW IN TELLURIDE...SILVERTON...WOLF CREEK PASS
AND CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY SLOWDOWNS AND SUB-PAR ROAD CONDITIONS FOR
TRAVELERS ALONG HWY 550 SOUTH OF RIDGWAY AND HWY 50 APPROACH TO
MONARCH PASS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES SW CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AFTER WHICH SHOWERS AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD DECREASE.
HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER THE NE CORNER OF NV WILL
ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE NEXT PACIFIC JET WILL ALREADY BE NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST....SE UT AND SW CO SHOULD
SEE SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.

SOME AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND HIGH VALLEYS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GUNNISON AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS WHERE GUIDANCE GAVE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 28-32F
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR WED-WED NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOSTLY BRUSH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER MODELS WITH THE GFS LAGGING
BEHIND ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE FASTER
TIMING FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT END ACTIVITY TOO SOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER GFS. ALSO...THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM PROVIDES FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS OFTEN LINGERING LONGER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALREADY BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED...AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CO/NM BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A VIGOROUS FRONT WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -4C NORTH...TO 1-2C
SOUTH...WITH ZERO C OR BELOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN EDGE BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ALSO GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THEREFORE WED
IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR EASTERN UT/WESTERN
CO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AND POSSIBLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS INTO
THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING POINT AT MANY OF THE HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS WED
NIGHT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUT THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER WILL SWING ACROSS SW CO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE 03Z. MTNS WILL ALSO BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY. VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED 12Z-18Z TUE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ014-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291756
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AS WEAK PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS TO FIRE. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING PRECIP WINDING
DOWN FOR NOW EXCEPT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE SOME
RETURNS ARE STILL SHOWING UP. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONCERNS
FOR MTN PASSES OR THE LIKE. MODELS AGREE THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS ENERGY WILL LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD INCREASING
INSTABILITY. CONCERNS WILL BE SOME HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM ABOUT 3PM THROUGH 9PM. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN PLENTY
OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ONTO THE WY-NE PLAINS ENDING UPPER
SUPPORT. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP/ELK MOUNTAIN RANGES IN MARGINALLY MOIST
WEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WE
MAY SEE NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLORADO HIGH VALLEYS SUCH AS THE
ROARING FORK AND GUNNISON BASIN. WITH 700MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO
DEGREES LIGHT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10KFT. CRAIG/HAYDEN/STEAMBOAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS AND VIRGA/SHOWERS. RABBIT EARS...VAIL...
INDEPENDENCE PASSES MAY HAVE SLICK CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FAST WEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SHOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AN OPEN TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THEN
SWEEPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPER IN THE 00Z RUNS. FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE -20C COLD CORE PASSING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS. 700MB TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS -4C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
SNOW POTENTIALLY INTO THE HIGH COLORADO VALLEYS ESPECIALLY
STEAMBOAT AND VAIL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON.

ONCE THE FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WRN US. WHILE THIS AREA
WILL MOVE AROUND SOME...THE INFLUENCE ON US REMAINS THE SAME. THAT
IS...NWLY FLOW WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. EXTENDED GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM THURSDAY ON
THEN...A QUIET TIME EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER WILL SWING ACROSS SW CO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE 03Z. MTNS WILL ALSO BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY. VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED 12Z-18Z TUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291756
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AS WEAK PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS TO FIRE. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING PRECIP WINDING
DOWN FOR NOW EXCEPT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE SOME
RETURNS ARE STILL SHOWING UP. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONCERNS
FOR MTN PASSES OR THE LIKE. MODELS AGREE THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS ENERGY WILL LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD INCREASING
INSTABILITY. CONCERNS WILL BE SOME HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM ABOUT 3PM THROUGH 9PM. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN PLENTY
OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ONTO THE WY-NE PLAINS ENDING UPPER
SUPPORT. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP/ELK MOUNTAIN RANGES IN MARGINALLY MOIST
WEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WE
MAY SEE NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLORADO HIGH VALLEYS SUCH AS THE
ROARING FORK AND GUNNISON BASIN. WITH 700MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO
DEGREES LIGHT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10KFT. CRAIG/HAYDEN/STEAMBOAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS AND VIRGA/SHOWERS. RABBIT EARS...VAIL...
INDEPENDENCE PASSES MAY HAVE SLICK CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FAST WEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SHOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AN OPEN TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THEN
SWEEPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPER IN THE 00Z RUNS. FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE -20C COLD CORE PASSING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS. 700MB TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS -4C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
SNOW POTENTIALLY INTO THE HIGH COLORADO VALLEYS ESPECIALLY
STEAMBOAT AND VAIL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON.

ONCE THE FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WRN US. WHILE THIS AREA
WILL MOVE AROUND SOME...THE INFLUENCE ON US REMAINS THE SAME. THAT
IS...NWLY FLOW WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. EXTENDED GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM THURSDAY ON
THEN...A QUIET TIME EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER WILL SWING ACROSS SW CO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE 03Z. MTNS WILL ALSO BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY. VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED 12Z-18Z TUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290849
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AS WEAK PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS TO FIRE. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING PRECIP WINDING
DOWN FOR NOW EXCEPT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE SOME
RETURNS ARE STILL SHOWING UP. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONCERNS
FOR MTN PASSES OR THE LIKE. MODELS AGREE THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS ENERGY WILL LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD INCREASING
INSTABILITY. CONCERNS WILL BE SOME HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM ABOUT 3PM THROUGH 9PM. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN PLENTY
OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ONTO THE WY-NE PLAINS ENDING UPPER
SUPPORT. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP/ELK MOUNTAIN RANGES IN MARGINALLY MOIST
WEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WE
MAY SEE NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLORADO HIGH VALLEYS SUCH AS THE
ROARING FORK AND GUNNISON BASIN. WITH 700MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO
DEGREES LIGHT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10KFT. CRAIG/HAYDEN/STEAMBOAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS AND VIRGA/SHOWERS. RABBIT EARS...VAIL...
INDEPENDENCE PASSES MAY HAVE SLICK CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FAST WEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SHOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AN OPEN TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THEN
SWEEPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPER IN THE 00Z RUNS. FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE -20C COLD CORE PASSING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS. 700MB TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS -4C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
SNOW POTENTIALLY INTO THE HIGH COLORADO VALLEYS ESPECIALLY
STEAMBOAT AND VAIL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON.

ONCE THE FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WRN US. WHILE THIS AREA
WILL MOVE AROUND SOME...THE INFLUENCE ON US REMAINS THE SAME. THAT
IS...NWLY FLOW WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. EXTENDED GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM THURSDAY ON
THEN...A QUIET TIME EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IN STORE WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS FIRING FROM 18Z BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD BY 21Z. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM. MTNS WILL ALSO BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290849
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AS WEAK PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS TO FIRE. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING PRECIP WINDING
DOWN FOR NOW EXCEPT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE SOME
RETURNS ARE STILL SHOWING UP. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONCERNS
FOR MTN PASSES OR THE LIKE. MODELS AGREE THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS ENERGY WILL LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD INCREASING
INSTABILITY. CONCERNS WILL BE SOME HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM ABOUT 3PM THROUGH 9PM. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN PLENTY
OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ONTO THE WY-NE PLAINS ENDING UPPER
SUPPORT. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP/ELK MOUNTAIN RANGES IN MARGINALLY MOIST
WEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WE
MAY SEE NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLORADO HIGH VALLEYS SUCH AS THE
ROARING FORK AND GUNNISON BASIN. WITH 700MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO
DEGREES LIGHT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10KFT. CRAIG/HAYDEN/STEAMBOAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS AND VIRGA/SHOWERS. RABBIT EARS...VAIL...
INDEPENDENCE PASSES MAY HAVE SLICK CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FAST WEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SHOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AN OPEN TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THEN
SWEEPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPER IN THE 00Z RUNS. FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE -20C COLD CORE PASSING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS. 700MB TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS -4C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
SNOW POTENTIALLY INTO THE HIGH COLORADO VALLEYS ESPECIALLY
STEAMBOAT AND VAIL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON.

ONCE THE FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WRN US. WHILE THIS AREA
WILL MOVE AROUND SOME...THE INFLUENCE ON US REMAINS THE SAME. THAT
IS...NWLY FLOW WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. EXTENDED GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM THURSDAY ON
THEN...A QUIET TIME EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY IN STORE WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS FIRING FROM 18Z BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD BY 21Z. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM. MTNS WILL ALSO BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
855 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES ROLLING ALONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ADVERTISE A FEW MORE WAVES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 3 AM THIS
MORNING. ALSO TRACKING SOME ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE MODIFIED POP
GRIDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO FIT EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
ANY CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. SNOW IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9K ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND AROUND 10K FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR...BUT THE PEAKS ARE WHITE
IN MANY AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE DOWN IN THAT AREA. NEW GRIDS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS THE AREA.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR SHOWERS. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
855 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES ROLLING ALONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ADVERTISE A FEW MORE WAVES WILL
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH 3 AM THIS
MORNING. ALSO TRACKING SOME ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE MODIFIED POP
GRIDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO FIT EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
ANY CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. SNOW IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9K ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND AROUND 10K FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH.
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR...BUT THE PEAKS ARE WHITE
IN MANY AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE DOWN IN THAT AREA. NEW GRIDS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 846 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS THE AREA.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR SHOWERS. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING ALL
TERMINAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290011
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
611 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE DOWN IN THAT AREA. NEW GRIDS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AREA
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS MAY DRIVE CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO FALL NEAR THE 10000 FT
LEVEL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290011
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
611 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
AT LEAST ONE MORE WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE AND HAVE ALLOWED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE DOWN IN THAT AREA. NEW GRIDS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AREA
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS MAY DRIVE CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO FALL NEAR THE 10000 FT
LEVEL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282306
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
506 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AREA
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS MAY DRIVE CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO FALL NEAR THE 10000 FT
LEVEL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282306
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
506 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AREA
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS MAY DRIVE CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO FALL NEAR THE 10000 FT
LEVEL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 282131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST AREA IN A BIT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE BORDER AREA BETWEEN
UTAH AND COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MODELS
INDICATED MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WHICH PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED...MODELS CONTINUED TO
INSIST THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE CIRCULATION TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS...A DRY SLOT WILL WORK OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH PRETTY MUCH ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. CONTINUED DRYING AND
DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A STRONG
VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ON TO THE
NORTHEAST CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNIFORMLY NEAR 0.5 INCHES WHILE INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND MUCAPE
UNIMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNLIKELY TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DRYING COMES MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN FACT ...STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD BRING SNOW LOWER AS EVIDENCED BY PICTURE
RECEIVED OF LONE CONE IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHICH INDICATED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW 9000 FEET.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND COLDER YET MONDAY NIGHT...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VALLEYS. MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY
LOOKS LIKE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY WITH WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW KEEPING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AROUND FOR THE NRN
MTNS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE ON WED AS IT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR WED-WED NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SO BLENDED IN THE LATEST
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR WED. CLEARING SKIES LATE WED NIGHT TO
FREEZING TEMPS THU MORNING IN SOME VALLEYS.

A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER THU-SUN. TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL AVERAGE
NEAR TO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 281800
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1200 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO AT NOON. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT A
PORTION OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. MODEL INDICATED DECREASE IN PW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS SUSPECT AND GIVEN INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND
DYNAMIC COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET NOSING INTO THE AREA OPTED TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE
DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AND THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...STRADDLING
BOTH SIDES OF THE UT/CO BORDER WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED
IN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS A JET
STREAK CURVES BACK AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER NV. THIS STREAK IS
THE SUPPORT THAT`S CAUSING THE RAINSHOWERS. A STRONGER JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF SAID LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING E AND PRECIP FOLLOWING
SUIT...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LOWER SO WILL DROP ERN UT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE WATCH FOR WRN COLORADO
STILL STAY IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWRD. THE HRRR IS AGAIN PERFORMING WELL AND
IS INDICATING BY 0700L THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FOR ERN UT
WHILE MUCH OF WRN COLORADO...EXCEPT THE NRN MTNS...WILL BE SEEING
SOME RAINFALL.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER WRN/SRN UT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY
HIGH AND THIS MIXED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LEND ITSELF FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HALF- INCH SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING THIS
CONVECTION FORMING FROM ABOUT 3PM ONWARDS. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE...AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE LOW ELONGATING IT SOUTH TO NORTH. THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH
OF THIS AREA AND THE DRY SLOT LOWERS PRECIP WATER VALUES TO 0.25
SOUTH...0.5 INCH NORTH. THIS BRINGS A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SPOKE ROTATES NE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 80KT JET LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN
THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT UNDER THE JET SUPPORT
WILL PRODUCE SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS NE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 0C MONDAY FOR
A SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FT IN THE PARK RANGE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BELOW TIMBERLINE WILL MELT ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW WEDNESDAY AND CARVE
OUT A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH.
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SLOWLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 281800
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1200 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
COLORADO AT NOON. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT A
PORTION OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. MODEL INDICATED DECREASE IN PW FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS SUSPECT AND GIVEN INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND
DYNAMIC COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET NOSING INTO THE AREA OPTED TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE
DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AND THE SOUTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...STRADDLING
BOTH SIDES OF THE UT/CO BORDER WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED
IN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS A JET
STREAK CURVES BACK AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER NV. THIS STREAK IS
THE SUPPORT THAT`S CAUSING THE RAINSHOWERS. A STRONGER JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF SAID LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING E AND PRECIP FOLLOWING
SUIT...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LOWER SO WILL DROP ERN UT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE WATCH FOR WRN COLORADO
STILL STAY IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWRD. THE HRRR IS AGAIN PERFORMING WELL AND
IS INDICATING BY 0700L THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FOR ERN UT
WHILE MUCH OF WRN COLORADO...EXCEPT THE NRN MTNS...WILL BE SEEING
SOME RAINFALL.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER WRN/SRN UT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY
HIGH AND THIS MIXED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LEND ITSELF FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HALF- INCH SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING THIS
CONVECTION FORMING FROM ABOUT 3PM ONWARDS. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE...AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE LOW ELONGATING IT SOUTH TO NORTH. THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH
OF THIS AREA AND THE DRY SLOT LOWERS PRECIP WATER VALUES TO 0.25
SOUTH...0.5 INCH NORTH. THIS BRINGS A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SPOKE ROTATES NE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 80KT JET LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN
THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT UNDER THE JET SUPPORT
WILL PRODUCE SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS NE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 0C MONDAY FOR
A SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FT IN THE PARK RANGE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BELOW TIMBERLINE WILL MELT ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW WEDNESDAY AND CARVE
OUT A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH.
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SLOWLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ019-022.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281649
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...STRADDLING
BOTH SIDES OF THE UT/CO BORDER WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED
IN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS A JET
STREAK CURVES BACK AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER NV. THIS STREAK IS
THE SUPPORT THAT`S CAUSING THE RAINSHOWERS. A STRONGER JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF SAID LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING E AND PRECIP FOLLOWING
SUIT...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LOWER SO WILL DROP ERN UT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE WATCH FOR WRN COLORADO
STILL STAY IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWRD. THE HRRR IS AGAIN PERFORMING WELL AND
IS INDICATING BY 0700L THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FOR ERN UT
WHILE MUCH OF WRN COLORADO...EXCEPT THE NRN MTNS...WILL BE SEEING
SOME RAINFALL.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER WRN/SRN UT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY
HIGH AND THIS MIXED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LEND ITSELF FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HALF- INCH SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING THIS
CONVECTION FORMING FROM ABOUT 3PM ONWARDS. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE...AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE LOW ELONGATING IT SOUTH TO NORTH. THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH
OF THIS AREA AND THE DRY SLOT LOWERS PRECIP WATER VALUES TO 0.25
SOUTH...0.5 INCH NORTH. THIS BRINGS A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SPOKE ROTATES NE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 80KT JET LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN
THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT UNDER THE JET SUPPORT
WILL PRODUCE SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS NE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 0C MONDAY FOR
A SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FT IN THE PARK RANGE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BELOW TIMBERLINE WILL MELT ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW WEDNESDAY AND CARVE
OUT A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH.
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SLOWLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ001>003-006-007-
     009-011-013-017>022.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...EH




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