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000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD CO ZONE 6 AND UT ZONE 27 TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ006-009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-027-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 281008 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD CO ZONE 6 AND UT ZONE 27 TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTED TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE
PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS ALLOWING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO FLOW
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DEWPOINT TEMPS
WERE UP MARKEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS HAS
SUSTAINED PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER SW COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL
UTAH. NAM80 INDICATED 3H LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND SUNRISE AND GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. AS
DAYTIME WARMING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MESO-BETA ELEMENTS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WITH PW VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE STRONGEST CELLS. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. IN FACT...EXPANDED THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE GRAND VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT IN EASTERN UTAH GIVEN
18 DEGREE RISE IN DEWPOINT AT KCNY. MODELS PROJECT THE DEEP
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL INFILTRATE THE GRAND VALLEY
DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. MET GUIDANCE SEEMED A BIT OVERLY
COOL SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ROTATES EAST OVER THE
AREA. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER MOST AREAS. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST CUTTING OFF THE MONSOONAL SURGE ON
THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
FUEL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY KEEO...KPSO...KPGA...KPUC...AND BACK TO KEEO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AREA TAF SITES FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH 03Z/TUES. A MAJORITY OF
TODAY/S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IMPACTS UPON AREA TAF SITES LESS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ006-009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ022-027-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TAF SITES
REPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG STORMS AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON.
ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON STATION WITH MVFR...TO
POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS DROPS UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL TAKE A DOWNTURN AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TAF SITES
REPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG STORMS AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON.
ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON STATION WITH MVFR...TO
POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS DROPS UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL TAKE A DOWNTURN AFTER 03Z THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY...REACHING A MAXIMUM TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...FORECAST PWATS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL FLOW.  A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...FAIRLY WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT FORM TO BE SLOW
MOVERS. THESE INGREDIENTS LEND THEMSELVES TO INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING RISKS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE SITUATIONS...SOME
AREAS UNDER THE WATCH WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS WILL
SEE PLENTY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS SET UP. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE WIDER COVERAGE SO FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
THEN AND AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-011-012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272329
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
529 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272329
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
529 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
DROPPING VIS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MOST
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY 03Z WITH AN OCCNL SHOWER/STORM
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KDRO AND KTEX MAY SEE SOME OF THIS OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BUT MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE KEEPS VFR GOING IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MUCH OF THE DAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND SHOWERS BEING COMMON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE TS ON
STATION WITH MVFR...TO POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS VIS
DROPS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO TEMPO GROUPS YET WITH CONVECTION
SO FAR OUT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272153
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272153
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TAVAPUTS TO FLATTOPS...HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...SOME SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THOSE
MOUNTAINS AS MORE SUNSHINE REACHES THE GROUND THERE. OTHERWISE
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED MAINLY ON
THE SAN JUAN...ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. EXPECT STORMS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
THAT SAID...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.30 INCHES
IN THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST UT BY MON AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW THE FIRST...BUT
WEAKER...WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MON...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...
INSTABILITY SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...AND THE DEEP AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS...
AGGRAVATED BY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ALONG THE BAJA COAST
ROTATES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GIVING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.30 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. NAM12
SHOWED POCKETS OF K-INDEX > 40 WHICH CAN ALSO BE AN INDICATOR OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PER 300 MB UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER OMEGA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY
TRACKS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER TUE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT DISCOUNT
THE MOIST S-SW FLOW INTO THE SRN MTNS EITHER. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN THE MODELS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO THAT RAIN SHOWERS/HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...AND ALSO A MULTIMEDIA
WEATHER BRIEFING ON OUR YOUTUBE AND FACEBOOK SITES...ADDRESSING
THIS ANTICIPATED MONSOONAL SURGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADDRESS THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH QUESTION. KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR
TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THU-SUN AS
LINGERING MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SW CO/NW NM BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED YESTERDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST CO APPEARED
RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAKENING SINGLE CELL STORM 30NM SOUTHWEST OF
KPSO AROUND 0830Z.

NAM APPEARED TO BEST HANDLE THESE FEATURES AND SUGGESTS THAT SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS PAST DAYBREAK. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LOSE SOME
ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING FORCES...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CO. ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL
MONSOON MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/SUN KGJT SOUNDING PW VALUE DOWN CLOSE TO 0.1 INCHES
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S SOUNDING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL HAVE A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TODAY/S MOIST
CONVECTION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
SATURDAY SO CONTINUED FORECAST FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH WITH MINIMAL VALUES INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 0.8 INCHES. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A PERFECT POSITION.
PW VALUES INCREASE WITH AN INCH TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO SUNDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING
INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS ALSO PAIRED
WITH A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ON AVERAGE
1.25 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LAKE POWELL
IN SE UTAH OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS VERY CLEARLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT 5H-3H VORTICITY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR AS OF SUNDAY MORNING...A WAVE OVER EL PASO TEXAS
STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE OLD MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER...AND
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 5H-3H
VORTICITY INDICATES THESE FEATURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND MERGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WELL WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEERING FLOW
AND SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH STRONGER STORMS
OCCURRING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS STORM MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
CYCLING OF MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MORE COMMONPLACE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/NL
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 271646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SW CO/NW NM BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED YESTERDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST CO APPEARED
RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAKENING SINGLE CELL STORM 30NM SOUTHWEST OF
KPSO AROUND 0830Z.

NAM APPEARED TO BEST HANDLE THESE FEATURES AND SUGGESTS THAT SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS PAST DAYBREAK. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LOSE SOME
ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING FORCES...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CO. ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL
MONSOON MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/SUN KGJT SOUNDING PW VALUE DOWN CLOSE TO 0.1 INCHES
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S SOUNDING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL HAVE A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TODAY/S MOIST
CONVECTION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
SATURDAY SO CONTINUED FORECAST FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH WITH MINIMAL VALUES INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 0.8 INCHES. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A PERFECT POSITION.
PW VALUES INCREASE WITH AN INCH TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO SUNDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING
INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS ALSO PAIRED
WITH A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ON AVERAGE
1.25 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LAKE POWELL
IN SE UTAH OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS VERY CLEARLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT 5H-3H VORTICITY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR AS OF SUNDAY MORNING...A WAVE OVER EL PASO TEXAS
STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE OLD MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER...AND
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 5H-3H
VORTICITY INDICATES THESE FEATURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND MERGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WELL WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEERING FLOW
AND SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH STRONGER STORMS
OCCURRING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS STORM MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
CYCLING OF MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MORE COMMONPLACE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS AND
ROAN PLATEAUS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS MAY DEVELOP. OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/NL
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SW CO/NW NM BORDER REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED YESTERDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE HIGH CIRCULATION AND AN MCV OVER SOUTHEAST CO APPEARED
RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAKENING SINGLE CELL STORM 30NM SOUTHWEST OF
KPSO AROUND 0830Z.

NAM APPEARED TO BEST HANDLE THESE FEATURES AND SUGGESTS THAT SOME
LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS PAST DAYBREAK. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LOSE SOME
ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING FORCES...HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CO. ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL
MONSOON MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/SUN KGJT SOUNDING PW VALUE DOWN CLOSE TO 0.1 INCHES
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S SOUNDING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS
WILL HAVE A PARTICULARLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON TODAY/S MOIST
CONVECTION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.

DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN
SATURDAY SO CONTINUED FORECAST FAVORING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AN INCH WITH MINIMAL VALUES INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 0.8 INCHES. A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NEW MEXICO...EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A PERFECT POSITION.
PW VALUES INCREASE WITH AN INCH TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WHICH IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO SUNDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFTING
INTO VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOVEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WHEN THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS ALSO PAIRED
WITH A DEEPER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ON AVERAGE
1.25 ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LAKE POWELL
IN SE UTAH OF 1.5 INCHES. THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS VERY CLEARLY EVIDENT WHEN
LOOKING AT 5H-3H VORTICITY. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR AS OF SUNDAY MORNING...A WAVE OVER EL PASO TEXAS
STRETCHING EAST TOWARDS THE OLD MEXICO-ARIZONA BORDER...AND
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 5H-3H
VORTICITY INDICATES THESE FEATURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND MERGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A VERY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS WELL WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  STEERING FLOW
AND SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH STORM MOTION IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.  BELIEVE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH STRONGER STORMS
OCCURRING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY AS STORM MOTION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. MUD
DEBRIS FLOWS AND ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
CYCLING OF MOISTURE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MORE COMMONPLACE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOCALIZED SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN
TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAUS. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TAF SITES AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON.
THEREAFTER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP SO
STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY
AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 270438
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS IT WRAPS CLOCKWISE
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT DID
WERE DECENT IN STRENGTH PER RADAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD CAPE
PRESENT SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SWRN UT/NWRN AZ
BORDER...WHERE A DECENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED AT 2PM. SOME
MODELS SHOW THIS SHEARING OUT ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND INCH FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...AS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES A COLD FRONT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE
ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MON AND TUE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOT ONLY
WILL DEEP MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TIMED FOR TUE
AFTERNOON...THE NAM PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH LOCAL AREAS TOPPING 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...
AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ON TUE...AND MAYBE MON...WHEN CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES. CONVECTION WILL FIRE AFTER 17Z SUNDAY WITH
THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MTNS FAVORED WITH NORTHERN AREAS NOT
SEEING AS MUCH ACTIVITY AS SEEN TODAY. THE MTN TAF SITES AGAIN
LOOK FAVORED FOR VCSH AND VCTS AROUND 21Z THROUGH 03Z WITH -TS ON
STATION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BRING OCCNL
IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THEY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED UNDER AND
NEAR ANY STRONGER CELLS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS IT WRAPS CLOCKWISE
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT DID
WERE DECENT IN STRENGTH PER RADAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD CAPE
PRESENT SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SWRN UT/NWRN AZ
BORDER...WHERE A DECENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED AT 2PM. SOME
MODELS SHOW THIS SHEARING OUT ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND INCH FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...AS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES A COLD FRONT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE
ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MON AND TUE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOT ONLY
WILL DEEP MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TIMED FOR TUE
AFTERNOON...THE NAM PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH LOCAL AREAS TOPPING 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...
AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ON TUE...AND MAYBE MON...WHEN CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PLENTY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THOUGH MORE CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND SERN UTAH. THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS OF
40MPH WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES UNDER
HEAVY RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THOUGH THEY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
LATELY...CONVECTION WILL START AFTER 17Z WITH THE SAN JUANS AND
CENTRAL MTNS FAVORED WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX WILL LIKELY SEE SOME VCTS OR
TS ON STATION WHILE REMAINING TAF SITES MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS IT WRAPS CLOCKWISE
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT DID
WERE DECENT IN STRENGTH PER RADAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD CAPE
PRESENT SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SWRN UT/NWRN AZ
BORDER...WHERE A DECENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED AT 2PM. SOME
MODELS SHOW THIS SHEARING OUT ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND INCH FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...AS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES A COLD FRONT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE
ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MON AND TUE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOT ONLY
WILL DEEP MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TIMED FOR TUE
AFTERNOON...THE NAM PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH LOCAL AREAS TOPPING 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...
AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ON TUE...AND MAYBE MON...WHEN CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PLENTY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THOUGH MORE CELLS ARE STARTING TO POP OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND SERN UTAH. THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS OF
40MPH WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES UNDER
HEAVY RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z THOUGH THEY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
LATELY...CONVECTION WILL START AFTER 17Z WITH THE SAN JUANS AND
CENTRAL MTNS FAVORED WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX WILL LIKELY SEE SOME VCTS OR
TS ON STATION WHILE REMAINING TAF SITES MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262049
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS IT WRAPS CLOCKWISE
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT DID
WERE DECENT IN STRENGTH PER RADAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD CAPE
PRESENT SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SWRN UT/NWRN AZ
BORDER...WHERE A DECENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED AT 2PM. SOME
MODELS SHOW THIS SHEARING OUT ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND INCH FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...AS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES A COLD FRONT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE
ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MON AND TUE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOT ONLY
WILL DEEP MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TIMED FOR TUE
AFTERNOON...THE NAM PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH LOCAL AREAS TOPPING 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...
AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ON TUE...AND MAYBE MON...WHEN CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING IN FROM SRN UT
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND KVEL AND EXTREME NW CO.

STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP...AND STORMS MOVING
OVER TAF SITES COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA BY 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262049
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS IT WRAPS CLOCKWISE
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT DID
WERE DECENT IN STRENGTH PER RADAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD CAPE
PRESENT SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SWRN UT/NWRN AZ
BORDER...WHERE A DECENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED AT 2PM. SOME
MODELS SHOW THIS SHEARING OUT ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND INCH FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...AS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES A COLD FRONT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE
ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MON AND TUE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOT ONLY
WILL DEEP MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TIMED FOR TUE
AFTERNOON...THE NAM PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH LOCAL AREAS TOPPING 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...
AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ON TUE...AND MAYBE MON...WHEN CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING IN FROM SRN UT
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND KVEL AND EXTREME NW CO.

STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP...AND STORMS MOVING
OVER TAF SITES COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA BY 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 261704
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER ALL BUT FAR NE UT THIS MORNING
AS IT CONTINUES TO WRAP CLOCKWISE AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN PLAINS. SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO NE CO BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NW CO
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING THERE NOW IN ITS
WAKE.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM NW AZ INTO SRN UT SENDING SOME
CLOUDS INTO SE UT/SW CO AT MID-MORNING. WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
THIS SRN UT UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
EVENING...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH...HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED THREATS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS
FLOWS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE FLAT TOPS AND PORTIONS OF THE ROAN PLATEAU. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE SO ADDED SOME ISOLATED POPS TO
THOSE AREAS.

00Z/KGJT SOUNDING CONTAINED 0.9 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH
IS DOWN BY ABOUT A TENTH FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE.
DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS
...SAFE TO SAY THAT STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS DIURNAL
CIRCULATIONS BREAK DOWN SOME STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER THE VALLEYS. LESS CAPE AVAILABLE FOR TODAY/S
STORMS ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
DEBRIS/MUD FLOWS.

AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...AFTERNOON HIGHS LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR OR JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RE-DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ARE SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS.
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF HIGHER POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
IMPINGING ON AN AIRMASS CONTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH. STANDS TO REASON THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS INDICATED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FAVORS THE USUAL
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING IN FROM SRN UT
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND KVEL AND EXTREME NW CO.

STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP...AND STORMS MOVING
OVER TAF SITES COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA BY 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 261704
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER ALL BUT FAR NE UT THIS MORNING
AS IT CONTINUES TO WRAP CLOCKWISE AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN PLAINS. SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO NE CO BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NW CO
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING THERE NOW IN ITS
WAKE.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM NW AZ INTO SRN UT SENDING SOME
CLOUDS INTO SE UT/SW CO AT MID-MORNING. WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
THIS SRN UT UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY
EVENING...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH...HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE ASSOCIATED THREATS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUD/DEBRIS
FLOWS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE FLAT TOPS AND PORTIONS OF THE ROAN PLATEAU. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE SO ADDED SOME ISOLATED POPS TO
THOSE AREAS.

00Z/KGJT SOUNDING CONTAINED 0.9 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH
IS DOWN BY ABOUT A TENTH FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE.
DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS
...SAFE TO SAY THAT STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS DIURNAL
CIRCULATIONS BREAK DOWN SOME STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER THE VALLEYS. LESS CAPE AVAILABLE FOR TODAY/S
STORMS ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
DEBRIS/MUD FLOWS.

AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...AFTERNOON HIGHS LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR OR JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RE-DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ARE SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS.
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF HIGHER POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
IMPINGING ON AN AIRMASS CONTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH. STANDS TO REASON THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS INDICATED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FAVORS THE USUAL
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING IN FROM SRN UT
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND KVEL AND EXTREME NW CO.

STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP...AND STORMS MOVING
OVER TAF SITES COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA BY 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261012
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE FLAT TOPS AND PORTIONS OF THE ROAN PLATEAU. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE SO ADDED SOME ISOLATED POPS TO
THOSE AREAS.

00Z/KGJT SOUNDING CONTAINED 0.9 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH
IS DOWN BY ABOUT A TENTH FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE.
DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS
...SAFE TO SAY THAT STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS DIURNAL
CIRCULATIONS BREAK DOWN SOME STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER THE VALLEYS. LESS CAPE AVAILABLE FOR TODAY/S
STORMS ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
DEBRIS/MUD FLOWS.

AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...AFTERNOON HIGHS LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR OR JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RE-DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ARE SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS.
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF HIGHER POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
IMPINGING ON AN AIRMASS CONTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH. STANDS TO REASON THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS INDICATED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FAVORS THE USUAL
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER
TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261012
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUSTAINING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE FLAT TOPS AND PORTIONS OF THE ROAN PLATEAU. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE SO ADDED SOME ISOLATED POPS TO
THOSE AREAS.

00Z/KGJT SOUNDING CONTAINED 0.9 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH
IS DOWN BY ABOUT A TENTH FROM YESTERDAY BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE.
DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS
...SAFE TO SAY THAT STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS DIURNAL
CIRCULATIONS BREAK DOWN SOME STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OVER THE VALLEYS. LESS CAPE AVAILABLE FOR TODAY/S
STORMS ACCORDING TO BUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
DEBRIS/MUD FLOWS.

AS IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...AFTERNOON HIGHS LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR OR JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RE-DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS
ARE SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS.
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF HIGHER POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE WRAPPING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
IMPINGING ON AN AIRMASS CONTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH. STANDS TO REASON THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS INDICATED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FAVORS THE USUAL
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP SO STORMS MOVING OVER
TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260449
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS EVENING UP NORTH WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WAVE IN CENTRAL UTAH AIMING TOWARDS OUR CWA. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT SOME SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO BUMPED
UP POPS FOR NRN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DONE BY THEN AND CURRENT GRIDS CAPTURE THIS WELL. MORE PRECIP ON
TAP TOMORROW WITH AREAS N OF I-70 BEING FAVORED BY MODELS ATTM
THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL FIRE OVER SAN JUANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LOCALIZED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT KCNY BRIEFLY BEFORE 09Z
THOUGH A DECREASE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY IS UNLIKELY. IN FACT...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CARRY THROUGH UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP SO
STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY
AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260449
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS EVENING UP NORTH WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WAVE IN CENTRAL UTAH AIMING TOWARDS OUR CWA. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT SOME SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO BUMPED
UP POPS FOR NRN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DONE BY THEN AND CURRENT GRIDS CAPTURE THIS WELL. MORE PRECIP ON
TAP TOMORROW WITH AREAS N OF I-70 BEING FAVORED BY MODELS ATTM
THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL FIRE OVER SAN JUANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LOCALIZED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT KCNY BRIEFLY BEFORE 09Z
THOUGH A DECREASE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY IS UNLIKELY. IN FACT...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CARRY THROUGH UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
DRIFT OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP SO
STORMS MOVING OVER TAF SITES WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY
AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260306
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
906 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS EVENING UP NORTH WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WAVE IN CENTRAL UTAH AIMING TOWARDS OUR CWA. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT SOME SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO BUMPED
UP POPS FOR NRN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DONE BY THEN AND CURRENT GRIDS CAPTURE THIS WELL. MORE PRECIP ON
TAP TOMORROW WITH AREAS N OF I-70 BEING FAVORED BY MODELS ATTM
THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL FIRE OVER SAN JUANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD START
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 03Z...MOST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIE DOWN THOUGH A PASSING STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT STORMS TO START FIRING BETWEEN 17Z TO 18Z
WITH COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM FROM 21Z ONWARDS...SIMILAR TO
TODAY.  VCTS LOOKS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AERODROMES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260306
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
906 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUING THIS EVENING UP NORTH WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER WAVE IN CENTRAL UTAH AIMING TOWARDS OUR CWA. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT SOME SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SO BUMPED
UP POPS FOR NRN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
DONE BY THEN AND CURRENT GRIDS CAPTURE THIS WELL. MORE PRECIP ON
TAP TOMORROW WITH AREAS N OF I-70 BEING FAVORED BY MODELS ATTM
THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL FIRE OVER SAN JUANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD START
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 03Z...MOST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIE DOWN THOUGH A PASSING STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT STORMS TO START FIRING BETWEEN 17Z TO 18Z
WITH COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM FROM 21Z ONWARDS...SIMILAR TO
TODAY.  VCTS LOOKS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AERODROMES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 252256
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
456 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD START
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 03Z...MOST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIE DOWN THOUGH A PASSING STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT STORMS TO START FIRING BETWEEN 17Z TO 18Z
WITH COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM FROM 21Z ONWARDS...SIMILAR TO
TODAY.  VCTS LOOKS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AERODROMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 252256
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
456 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD START
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 03Z...MOST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIE DOWN THOUGH A PASSING STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT STORMS TO START FIRING BETWEEN 17Z TO 18Z
WITH COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM FROM 21Z ONWARDS...SIMILAR TO
TODAY.  VCTS LOOKS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AERODROMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 252154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-40
KTS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE FROM
PASSING +SHRA/+TSRA. DECREASING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT. AFTER A MORNING LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 252154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ANOTHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE EVENING UNDERWAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SWATH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE GRAND VALLEY HAS BEEN HARDEST HIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH REPORTS
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR THE
COLORADO NATIONAL MONUMENT...DUE TO STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER GLADE PARK AND TRAINING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE WEAKENING OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA...AND THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING EAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY. A H5 VORT MAX IN NORTHWESTERN AZ WILL
WRAP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GET TO EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UTAH
AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE LIKE
LAST NIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH...AS THIS
DISTURBANCE IS WEAKER.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS KEEP PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.95 INCHES FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...CANNOT IDENTIFY ANY
STRIKING FEATURES TOMORROW THAT WILL CREATE LARGE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER
SATURDAY EVENING AND NOT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AT OR ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ANY
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL EXCITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FINDING
THOSE MINOR RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS HINTING AT A FEW STRONGER WAVES
EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WILL BE MAINTAINING RATHER HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS
HIGHLIGHTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-40
KTS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE FROM
PASSING +SHRA/+TSRA. DECREASING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT. AFTER A MORNING LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251753
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST GRIDS FOR INCREASING CLOUD
TOPS OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
COLORADO TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE SAN JUANS
TO BE BUSY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH WITH VALUES EXCEEDING AN
INCH IN THE DESERT VALLEYS. ISOLATED NOCTURNAL STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS ENVIRONMENTAL...NO EXCEPTION THIS MORNING WITH AS A CLUSTER
OF CELLS MOVED ACROSS MOFFAT AND ROUTT COUNTY. A SMALLER CLUSTER
OF CELLS DEVELOPED OVER GRAND COUNTY IN UTAH AND CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO MESA COUNTY. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH CELLS MOVING FROM
WSW TO ENE. CELL MOVEMENT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN IS QUITE SMALL. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CELLS
MAY MANAGE HEAVY RAINS TO CAUSE LOCALIZED MUD DEBRIS FLOWS AND
ROCK SLIDES IN THE STEEPEST TERRAIN.

ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS DIMINISHES
AS A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ADVECTS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE
WEST.

MOST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT BY AROUND
9PM...STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY START DYING OFF. EVEN SO...A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS WILL PERSIST MUCH LIKE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 REMAIN FAVORED
ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY APPEARS TO PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE MORE INTO UTAH WHICH
ALSO SHOWS UP WITH FORECAST PWATS BEING A BIT LOWER THAN FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS...BOOKCLIFFS
AND AREAS SOUTH FAVORED YET AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER SRN CO AND
NRN NM WITH MODELS HINTING AT A MORE DEFINITE PUSH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. PWATS LOOK TO DROP TO ABOUT .8 INCHES
WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE CONVECTION ON THE WAY THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON STAYS ACTIVE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DO SHOW
EASTERLY WAVES THAT ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...BUT
DIFFICULT TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE. THE
BROADBRUSH APPROACH IS THE BEST FORECAST...THIS CURRENT PATTERN
FAVORS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED NOCTURNAL STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE...BUT NIGHTS WILL BE MILD/WARM AS NOCTURNAL BREEZES
PREVENT ANY PRONOUNCED COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-40
KTS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE FROM
PASSING +SHRA/+TSRA. DECREASING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT. AFTER A MORNING LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WINDS AND RH VALUES MAY BECOME NEAR CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA OF NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TIGHTEN THE UPPER GRADIENT AND BRING DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS
WILL RELAX AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...PF/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR/PF
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 251753
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST GRIDS FOR INCREASING CLOUD
TOPS OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH. EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
COLORADO TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE SAN JUANS
TO BE BUSY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH WITH VALUES EXCEEDING AN
INCH IN THE DESERT VALLEYS. ISOLATED NOCTURNAL STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS ENVIRONMENTAL...NO EXCEPTION THIS MORNING WITH AS A CLUSTER
OF CELLS MOVED ACROSS MOFFAT AND ROUTT COUNTY. A SMALLER CLUSTER
OF CELLS DEVELOPED OVER GRAND COUNTY IN UTAH AND CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO MESA COUNTY. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...BUT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH CELLS MOVING FROM
WSW TO ENE. CELL MOVEMENT IS FAST ENOUGH THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN IS QUITE SMALL. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST CELLS
MAY MANAGE HEAVY RAINS TO CAUSE LOCALIZED MUD DEBRIS FLOWS AND
ROCK SLIDES IN THE STEEPEST TERRAIN.

ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER...THE THREAT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS DIMINISHES
AS A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ADVECTS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE
WEST.

MOST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT BY AROUND
9PM...STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY START DYING OFF. EVEN SO...A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS WILL PERSIST MUCH LIKE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 REMAIN FAVORED
ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY APPEARS TO PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE MORE INTO UTAH WHICH
ALSO SHOWS UP WITH FORECAST PWATS BEING A BIT LOWER THAN FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS...BOOKCLIFFS
AND AREAS SOUTH FAVORED YET AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER SRN CO AND
NRN NM WITH MODELS HINTING AT A MORE DEFINITE PUSH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. PWATS LOOK TO DROP TO ABOUT .8 INCHES
WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THAT BEING
SAID...MORE CONVECTION ON THE WAY THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE AS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON STAYS ACTIVE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DO SHOW
EASTERLY WAVES THAT ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...BUT
DIFFICULT TO FINE TUNE THESE DETAILS SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE. THE
BROADBRUSH APPROACH IS THE BEST FORECAST...THIS CURRENT PATTERN
FAVORS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED NOCTURNAL STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE...BUT NIGHTS WILL BE MILD/WARM AS NOCTURNAL BREEZES
PREVENT ANY PRONOUNCED COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 30-40
KTS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE FROM
PASSING +SHRA/+TSRA. DECREASING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT. AFTER A MORNING LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WINDS AND RH VALUES MAY BECOME NEAR CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA OF NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TIGHTEN THE UPPER GRADIENT AND BRING DRIER AIR OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS
WILL RELAX AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...PF/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR/PF
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...AS





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