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000
FXUS65 KGJT 030909
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL KEEP EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE POOLED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DAILY CONVECTION...FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS THEN DRIFTING
OVER THE VALLEYS BY EARLY EVENING. BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAN
JUANS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HOLDING AROUND 1.2
INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH...STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND NO REASON TO STRAY FAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL KEEP STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
VARY FROM 1 INCH TO 1.3 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADD
THIS MOISTURE TO THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
YOU HAVE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. WITH
THIS MUCH MOISTURE...THE BIGGEST CONCERN BECOMES STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BENEATH THEM. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE DROPS TO ABOUT AN INCH BY MONDAY THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT TOO QUICK. EVEN SO...STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS THAT FORM.

A LOW WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. WHILE THIS IS NOT A
CLASSIC MONSOON PER SE...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS AND LOCATION OF THIS PLUME CERTAINLY LOOKS MONSOON-
LIKE. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING GENERALLY
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND MEEKER THOUGH SOME NEW CELLS ARE
POPPING JUST SOUTH OF GRAND JUNCTION. OBS SHOWING MID LEVEL CIGS
SO EXPECT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ON TAP HOWEVER WITH SOUTHERN TAF SITES
SEEING BETTER CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAN THOSE UP NORTH.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS HOWEVER
EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER
18Z. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 030909
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL KEEP EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE POOLED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DAILY CONVECTION...FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS THEN DRIFTING
OVER THE VALLEYS BY EARLY EVENING. BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAN
JUANS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HOLDING AROUND 1.2
INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH...STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND NO REASON TO STRAY FAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL KEEP STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
VARY FROM 1 INCH TO 1.3 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADD
THIS MOISTURE TO THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
YOU HAVE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. WITH
THIS MUCH MOISTURE...THE BIGGEST CONCERN BECOMES STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BENEATH THEM. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE DROPS TO ABOUT AN INCH BY MONDAY THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT TOO QUICK. EVEN SO...STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS THAT FORM.

A LOW WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. WHILE THIS IS NOT A
CLASSIC MONSOON PER SE...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS AND LOCATION OF THIS PLUME CERTAINLY LOOKS MONSOON-
LIKE. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING GENERALLY
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND MEEKER THOUGH SOME NEW CELLS ARE
POPPING JUST SOUTH OF GRAND JUNCTION. OBS SHOWING MID LEVEL CIGS
SO EXPECT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ON TAP HOWEVER WITH SOUTHERN TAF SITES
SEEING BETTER CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAN THOSE UP NORTH.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS HOWEVER
EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER
18Z. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 030909
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
309 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL KEEP EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE POOLED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DAILY CONVECTION...FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS THEN DRIFTING
OVER THE VALLEYS BY EARLY EVENING. BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAN
JUANS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HOLDING AROUND 1.2
INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH...STORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND NO REASON TO STRAY FAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL KEEP STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
VARY FROM 1 INCH TO 1.3 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADD
THIS MOISTURE TO THE TRAILING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
YOU HAVE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. WITH
THIS MUCH MOISTURE...THE BIGGEST CONCERN BECOMES STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BENEATH THEM. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE DROPS TO ABOUT AN INCH BY MONDAY THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT TOO QUICK. EVEN SO...STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS THAT FORM.

A LOW WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY WHILE THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. WHILE THIS IS NOT A
CLASSIC MONSOON PER SE...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS AND LOCATION OF THIS PLUME CERTAINLY LOOKS MONSOON-
LIKE. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THE RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING GENERALLY
NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AND MEEKER THOUGH SOME NEW CELLS ARE
POPPING JUST SOUTH OF GRAND JUNCTION. OBS SHOWING MID LEVEL CIGS
SO EXPECT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ON TAP HOWEVER WITH SOUTHERN TAF SITES
SEEING BETTER CHANCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAN THOSE UP NORTH.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS HOWEVER
EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION STARTING AFTER
18Z. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 022241
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
441 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES OVER SW COLORADO WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB IN THE 8-10 G/KG RANGE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO GO WELL BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINERS...BUT SHEAR PROFILE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND STORM CELLS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD/WARM NIGHT
WITH SOME DESERT VALLEYS STAYING ABOVE 70F.

ACROSS THE NORTH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM...MOSTLY DRY
OVER THIS REGION AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NE UTAH AND THE
NW COLORADO CORNER. THIS AREA BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS SINCE STEERING
WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GAIN SOME SPEED AFTER QUITE A FEW
DAYS OF LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY FAR SOUTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCED INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. COMBINED WITH HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE
COULD BE SOME GOOD SOAKERS LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS TEND
TO DRY OUT TOO QUICKLY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED LATER.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE WITH
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MUGGINESS WILL ENSUE.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST MIDWEEK
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THE SUNSET. KDRO AND
KTEX COULD BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...POSSIBLY AFFECTING LANDING AND TAKEOFF CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE KEGE TO KASE CORRIDOR. THREATS OF
THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. AFTER
SUNSET A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS65 KGJT 022241
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
441 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES OVER SW COLORADO WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB IN THE 8-10 G/KG RANGE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO GO WELL BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINERS...BUT SHEAR PROFILE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND STORM CELLS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD/WARM NIGHT
WITH SOME DESERT VALLEYS STAYING ABOVE 70F.

ACROSS THE NORTH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM...MOSTLY DRY
OVER THIS REGION AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NE UTAH AND THE
NW COLORADO CORNER. THIS AREA BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS SINCE STEERING
WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GAIN SOME SPEED AFTER QUITE A FEW
DAYS OF LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY FAR SOUTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCED INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. COMBINED WITH HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE
COULD BE SOME GOOD SOAKERS LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS TEND
TO DRY OUT TOO QUICKLY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED LATER.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE WITH
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MUGGINESS WILL ENSUE.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST MIDWEEK
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THE SUNSET. KDRO AND
KTEX COULD BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35 TO 45
MPH...POSSIBLY AFFECTING LANDING AND TAKEOFF CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE KEGE TO KASE CORRIDOR. THREATS OF
THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. AFTER
SUNSET A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 022107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES OVER SW COLORADO WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB IN THE 8-10 G/KG RANGE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO GO WELL BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINERS...BUT SHEAR PROFILE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND STORM CELLS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD/WARM NIGHT
WITH SOME DESERT VALLEYS STAYING ABOVE 70F.

ACROSS THE NORTH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM...MOSTLY DRY
OVER THIS REGION AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NE UTAH AND THE
NW COLORADO CORNER. THIS AREA BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS SINCE STEERING
WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GAIN SOME SPEED AFTER QUITE A FEW
DAYS OF LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY FAR SOUTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCED INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. COMBINED WITH HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE
COULD BE SOME GOOD SOAKERS LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS TEND
TO DRY OUT TOO QUICKLY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED LATER.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE WITH
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MUGGINESS WILL ENSUE.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST MIDWEEK
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.

NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 022107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES OVER SW COLORADO WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB IN THE 8-10 G/KG RANGE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO GO WELL BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINERS...BUT SHEAR PROFILE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND STORM CELLS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD/WARM NIGHT
WITH SOME DESERT VALLEYS STAYING ABOVE 70F.

ACROSS THE NORTH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM...MOSTLY DRY
OVER THIS REGION AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NE UTAH AND THE
NW COLORADO CORNER. THIS AREA BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS SINCE STEERING
WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GAIN SOME SPEED AFTER QUITE A FEW
DAYS OF LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY FAR SOUTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCED INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. COMBINED WITH HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE
COULD BE SOME GOOD SOAKERS LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS TEND
TO DRY OUT TOO QUICKLY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED LATER.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE WITH
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MUGGINESS WILL ENSUE.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST MIDWEEK
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.

NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 021750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. RAP MODEL INDICATE THAT A GUST FRONT WILL
FORM OFF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD WESTWARD...REACHING
THE SRN PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY UTAH THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS SHOW THIS TREND...BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS THE DAY
EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.

NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 021750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. RAP MODEL INDICATE THAT A GUST FRONT WILL
FORM OFF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD WESTWARD...REACHING
THE SRN PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY UTAH THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS SHOW THIS TREND...BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS THE DAY
EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.

NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 020839
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SHOWERS AND STORMS KEEP MOVING
FROM NW TO SE. KDRO...KTEX...AND KCNY MAY CONTINUE TO SEE VCTS OR
-TSRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
ENDING NEAR DAYBREAK SO TAFS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH 21Z. TAF SITES SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE
FAVORED TODAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED
TODAY...BUT IF THEY DO THEY SHOULD NOT STAY DOWN TOO LONG AS
SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT AWAY. MOST TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE UP
NORTH...WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020839
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES AS SHOWERS AND STORMS KEEP MOVING
FROM NW TO SE. KDRO...KTEX...AND KCNY MAY CONTINUE TO SEE VCTS OR
-TSRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
ENDING NEAR DAYBREAK SO TAFS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH 21Z. TAF SITES SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE
FAVORED TODAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING REACHED
TODAY...BUT IF THEY DO THEY SHOULD NOT STAY DOWN TOO LONG AS
SHOWERS/STORMS DRIFT AWAY. MOST TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE UP
NORTH...WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 020635
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 07Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR SERN UT...NEAR CNY AND
FURTHER SOUTH. CONCERNS WILL BE KTEX AND KDRO THIS MORNING FOR A
QUICK SHOWER...MAYBE RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT STILL EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THURSDAY
PROPER...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DIVIDE AND ALSO THE SAN JUANS SO KDRO AND KTEX WILL BE TAF SITES
THAT MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW VIS/CIGS FROM 18Z ONWARDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020635
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 07Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR SERN UT...NEAR CNY AND
FURTHER SOUTH. CONCERNS WILL BE KTEX AND KDRO THIS MORNING FOR A
QUICK SHOWER...MAYBE RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT STILL EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THURSDAY
PROPER...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DIVIDE AND ALSO THE SAN JUANS SO KDRO AND KTEX WILL BE TAF SITES
THAT MAY BE IMPACTED WITH LOW VIS/CIGS FROM 18Z ONWARDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 012249
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT SUBDUED COMPARED TO
EXPECTATIONS 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT VFR CONDITIONS ARE SECURE
AT THE AREA FORECAST TERMINALS...A TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KDRO COULD BE THE TERMINAL MOST IMPACTED
THROUGH 02/03Z AS STORMS DRIFT SOUTHWARD OFF THE SAN JUAN
FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON LOCATION
OR TIMING SO TAF FORECASTS WILL LEAN TOWARD NO WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 012100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE ENHANCING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILE IS VERY
WEAK AND THEREFORE STORM CELLS WILL BE PULSING UP AND DOWN. THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST (PWAT OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT STORM CHARACTER IS A MIXED BAG. POPULATED DESERT
VALLEY SPOTS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE 6000 FEET OR EVEN
HIGHER...MAY GET HEAVY SHOWERS THAT LAST FOR 10-20 MINUTES OR SO.
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE DISTURBANCE.

DRIER STABLE AIR FOLLOWS THE DISTURBANCE AND EXPECT STORMS/SHOWERS
TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF. NOT SO FAST OVER
SW COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER TO
MIDNIGHT OR PERHAPS LAST A BIT LONGER...EVEN SPILLING INTO SERN
UTAH. THIS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON WHERE LATE
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TEND TO BE LOCATED FROM SAN JUAN COUNTY
UTAH...MONTEZUMA AND LA PLATA COUNTIES. BY DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUD LINGERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

HORIZONTALLY ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE DRIFTED SLIGHTLY
WEST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO MOISTURE
DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE SHALLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 0.75 INCH BY
FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM
ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BY NEARLY A HALF INCH PWAT DIFFERENCE...SO NOT FEELING
CONFIDENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AS PREVIOUS MODELS
TRIED TO INDICATE.

MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST DRIFTS BACK EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH AND COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CLASSIC LONGER TERM EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO MONSOON SIGNAL PROGGED
YET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING TOO FAR
WEST TO REALLY STREAM SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MONDAY IS THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO MONSOONAL STYLE MOISTURE - WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH AND EVEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER
IN EASTERN UTAH FOR THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN THE H7 RIDGE TEMPORARILY AND BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY. LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN DECREASING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AGAIN AS THE WIND REGIME KEEPS MOST
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS DO
FREQUENTLY TRY TO DECREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TOO RAPIDLY AFTER A
SURGE OF MOISTURE. THE WEAK MONSOONAL SIGNAL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED IN
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS.

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MAX TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD CLOUD AND LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011755
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN LIGHT NW FLOW HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND ROAN
PLATEAU. SHEAR PROFILE IS WEAK AND WILL BE DIFFICULT ENVIRONMENT TO
SUSTAIN DEEP ONGOING CELLS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME STORMS WILL
ROLL OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...CELLS WILL WEAKEN OR COLLAPSE AS THEY MOVE INTO VALLEY
AREAS. SO ANTICIPATE STORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND VARIETY FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDING (PWATS OF 0.90 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING)...BUT THESE WILL BE MOSTLY RESERVED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (MOSTLY ABOVE 6K-7K FEET).

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MANY STORMS WILL BE ENDING
LATE IN THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SW COLORADO CORNER
WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS (MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE) WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...BUT COULD LINGER BETWEEN 06Z-10Z OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011037
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MORE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A FEW TAFS SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NW TO SE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KRIL
TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FROM ABOUT
20Z TO 05Z KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND KPSO
HAVING ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF EACH TAF SITE AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011037
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MORE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A FEW TAFS SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NW TO SE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KRIL
TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FROM ABOUT
20Z TO 05Z KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND KPSO
HAVING ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF EACH TAF SITE AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 010505
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND
KPSO HAVE ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH. THE KVEL...KEGE...AND KASE TERMINAL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
BEING IMPACTED BY THIS WEATHER THROUGH 01/04Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL THE MAIN IMPACTS AS RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH. THE KVEL...KEGE...AND KASE TERMINAL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
BEING IMPACTED BY THIS WEATHER THROUGH 01/04Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL THE MAIN IMPACTS AS RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC/JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE AFTERNOON OCCURRED IN NE UTAH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW CO THIS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
NORTHERN STORMS ARE PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THERE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE OVER NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TO DRAG ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS BOOSTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME
STORMS TO MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMPACT VALLEY
AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
SHORT MOVING DOWNSTREAM BY NIGHTFALL...STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING
BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NW AND LOWERS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MIGHT OBSERVE A LATE DAY STORM WILL BE THE COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY...OR TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT SHIFTS FROM COLORADO ON SATURDAY TO THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT
TUESDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE GETS GOING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THE GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING ONE INCH OVER
THE ERN UTAH DESERTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS MONSOONAL SURGE. GIVEN A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS...THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 TENDS TO BE MORE
BROADBRUSH. EITHER WAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
"MONSOON" SEASON ARRIVES IN EARNEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/PF
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301714
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. SOME FORCING SEEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FAVORING THE NORTH. AFTERNOON STORMS NORTH OF STEAMBOAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET. AFTER A DOWNTURN
OVERNIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLIER ON WEDNESDAY
AGAIN FAVORING THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LATE-DAY
STORMS HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY SOUTH-FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. 00Z/TUE KGJT
SOUNDING HELD A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AT
0.81 OF AN INCH. 00Z/TUE GFS MODEL BUFR SOUNDING BETTER
INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND SHOWED LITTLE
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. DCAPE
...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 1300
J/KG ACROSS THE REGION FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. KDRO
EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 48 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LATE MONDAY
SO EXPECT SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WET BULB
ZERO SUPPORTS HAIL BUT SHEAR NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE ORGANIZED CELLS
THAT PRODUCE LARGER STONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
BUT STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DON/T LOOK FOR ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 90S
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
MODELS ALL SUGGEST INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE
A DEGREE OR TWO OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVE TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO WED EVENING AS INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LAST OF THE UPLIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES BY CENTRAL CO IN THE EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN CAUSING A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP
THE FORECAST AREA TO MORE MOISTURE SW FLOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE CO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY.
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z TAF SITES KEGE KASE KGUC KTEX WILL SEE STORMS
IN THE VICINITY...WITH ABOUT AT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE AIRPORTS. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CO MTN PEAKS AS WELL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION UNTIL 06Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS REFORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT 15Z FAVORING THE
NORTH.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE





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