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000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 232225
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PASSING STORMS WILL LOWER CIGS
TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES.
EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS
INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LESS CONVECTIVE LATE TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WE STILL
HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AND THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THAT SAID ALL
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 9000 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES. PASSES OVER OTHER
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT SO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
IMPACT TRAVEL EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SHORTER TIME PERIODS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE 300-305K THETA SURFACES SHOW A CONTINUAL FEED OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN COLORADO. QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE DOWNTURN
BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...AND THE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE ABOVE 9500 FEET BUT CAN NOT SEE HOW THIS WILL BE AN
IMPACT ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT. HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE TERRAIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMISES SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BUT POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A PUSH UPWARD BUT STILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MAKING IT/S WAY FROM DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ADD SOME
ASCENT TO OUR NORTHERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
HIGHER POPS THERE BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN
TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A KICKER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
FORCE THIS SYSTEM OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TRANSITORY WAVE
ENTERING OUR CWA IN THE MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE SPARK NEEDED FOR
ANOTHER DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL. BRIEF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY AND BRING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK. THE KICKER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE JOINED BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY AND CARVE OUT A
MORE DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED LOW
DEVELOPING IN THIS TROUGH. RATHER OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM AND FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND WE SHOULD BACK TOWARD NORMAL READINGS BY
WEEK/S END. THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PROMISE A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BRING A DRIER AND WARMER CLOSE
TO MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
     SUNDAY FOR COZ018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PASSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS
FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES. EVEN AT VALLEY TAF SITES
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF






000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231150
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...CORRECTED SPELLING IN THE FIRST LINE...
A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED CAPE FROM
THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A PROJECTED CAPE OF
ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER WRN COLORADO
TODAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST. PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LOWER CIGS TO BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF +TSRA COULD
LOWER VIS INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
03Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF






000
FXUS65 KGJT 230955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A RATHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
HAPPENED FRIDAY THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. A FEW SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL
WARMING LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...AND THIS DECREASES THE PROJECTED
CAPE FROM THE 600+ J/KG ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z SOUNDING TO A
PROJECTED CAPE OF ABOUT 430 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION AS
ON FRIDAY.

STILL...THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE VORT MAXES SHOULD CARRY
ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE BETTER THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST VORT MAX SHOWS
ITSELF IN THE MODELS WITH INCREASING PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN MTS WHICH ROTATES NORTH AND OVER
KGUC...KASE TO KSBS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOBE APPEARS
MORE DISTINCT. AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER REACHES THE CO/UT BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES THROUGH SW CO LATE TONIGHT AN EVEN
STRONGER TROUGH DIVES DOWN ITS WESTERN SIDE AND HELPS KICK THE
MAIN LOW NE INTO EASTERN WY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE CWA FINALLY IS
UNDER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM WITH WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING TO
THE NW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRAG
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH KEEP BROAD AREAS OF
PRECIP OVER THE CWA AND MOVING WITH IT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT
ENHANCES THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE WET BULB ZERO LINE AND THE
700 MB TEMP SUGGEST THIS LEADS TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER THE PARK/GORE RANGES TOWARD MONARCH PASS. SOME OF THE SNOW
WILL BE MELTING AS IT FALLS...SO FORECASTING AMOUNTS WILL BE
CHALLENGING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE SLUSH OR SNOW COVERED
ROADS ABOVE 9K FEET.

A FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST STATES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES
AND COULD BE OVER COLORADO BY NEXT FRIDAY. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
TROUGH THAT ADVECTED MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER UTAH
AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF THIS DOES VERIFY. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THIS
SOLUTION...BUT THE PATTERN DOES HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND
DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM ANY "FEATURE" WILL BE WEAK. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230403
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1003 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND ENDING BY 09Z. STORMS
SHOULD REGENERATE BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE AND
STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AGL
AT TIMES ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
608 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS
OCCURRING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES. WINDS ALSO ENTERING THE EQUATION
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z BEFORE
QUIETING DOWN THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 06Z. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TOMORROW STARTING AFTER 18Z THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LESS. LIKE TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 222159
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222159
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE CLEAR AIR BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING. THERE WAS IN FACT...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GRAND JUNCTION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE NIGHT. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR DROPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
0.60 OF AN INCH RECORDED IN THE MORNING SOUNDING TO AROUND 0.40
OF AN INCH DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRYING COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE. ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 9000 FEET WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. BEAR IN MIND...
HOWEVER...THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WHICH COULD SLOW TRAVEL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR THOSE
RECORDED LAST NIGHT WHICH WERE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP IN SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING AND TREK NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ASCENT FROM THE CYCLONIC JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW MORNING THEN
SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH. A DRY
SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR DROPPING PWATS AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOOKS TO KEEP
POPS SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW END EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT IS STRONG
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER COOL AND WET WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIFT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO
THE HIGH PEAKS BY MID MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT QG PROGS INDICATE
REALLY TWO AREAS OF FOCUSED LIFT...THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT
STRONG THAT IMPACTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK THE UPPER LATITUDES LOOK TO REMAIN IN A
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO FREELY ENTER THE LOWER 48. THE TREND
FOR LATE THE WEEK IS TO FINALLY BUILD A LARGER RIDGE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NOAM BUT SINCE THIS IS HIGH ANOMALOUS RIGHT NOW WILL NEED
TO WAIT IT OUT. THE UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS TOO STRONG OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY SHEARING FROM THIS CYCLONE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. WITH THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY SWINGING SOUTH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MORE NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION SHOULD
BE FELT FOR THE MONDAY AND SOME PART OF THIS HOLIDAY MAY BE
SALVAGED WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO BEGINNING AND TREND UPWARDS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUN-BREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUN-BREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENERGY EJECTED FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN
AREAS OF OBSCURATION. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING AREA
AIRPORTS STRETCHES FROM 22Z THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220954
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 220954
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220954
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220452
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220452
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PRECIPITION WILL VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX AND KDRO SOME SHOWERS WILL LOWER
CIGS TO BELOW 5000 FT AGL. MTS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH
THE SNOW LINE VARYING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000 FT MSL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. WITH PASSING SHOWERS EXPECT CIGS BLO
050 WITH KRIL KEGE KASE WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAKPOINTS AT TIMES.
WIND GUSTS KTEX WILL HAVE A SHRA/SHSN MIX OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 9KFT MSL. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
10Z-18Z SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
AFT 18Z SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY PRODUCE -TSRA AND CIGS BLO
060 MAINLY AT KEGE KASE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. WITH PASSING SHOWERS EXPECT CIGS BLO
050 WITH KRIL KEGE KASE WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAKPOINTS AT TIMES.
WIND GUSTS KTEX WILL HAVE A SHRA/SHSN MIX OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 9KFT MSL. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
10Z-18Z SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
AFT 18Z SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY PRODUCE -TSRA AND CIGS BLO
060 MAINLY AT KEGE KASE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. WITH PASSING SHOWERS EXPECT CIGS BLO
050 WITH KRIL KEGE KASE WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAKPOINTS AT TIMES.
WIND GUSTS KTEX WILL HAVE A SHRA/SHSN MIX OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 9KFT MSL. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
10Z-18Z SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
AFT 18Z SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY PRODUCE -TSRA AND CIGS BLO
060 MAINLY AT KEGE KASE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. WITH PASSING SHOWERS EXPECT CIGS BLO
050 WITH KRIL KEGE KASE WITH CIGS BLO ILS BREAKPOINTS AT TIMES.
WIND GUSTS KTEX WILL HAVE A SHRA/SHSN MIX OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 9KFT MSL. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
10Z-18Z SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
AFT 18Z SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY PRODUCE -TSRA AND CIGS BLO
060 MAINLY AT KEGE KASE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212039
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z RESULTING IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS FROM 21Z ONWARD POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR VSBY AT
SOME AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT THOUGH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212039
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRED OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DYNAMIC
LIFT INCREASES. LIFT IS PROVIDED BY A VORT LOBE EJECTED FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOBE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SHOWERS BEYOND THE
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGE AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO NEAR 9000 TO 9500 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE HIGH
PASSES OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS
UNSEASONABLE SNOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SO...GIVEN HEIGHTENED TRAVEL ANTICIPATED
AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OFFSET RADIATIONAL LOSSES AND EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE BREAK OF DAY...TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING SOUTH/CENTRAL UT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WRAP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WET DAY
FOR WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE
AND SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN TODAY`S DUE TO A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILAR...BUT POSSIBLY JUST A TAD COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON SATURDAY THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT AN UPTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
SUNDAY. THESE PERIODS PROMISE TO BE QUITE WET...WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS SOLUTIONS SHOW LESS
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE...AND
SHOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE TERRAIN. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z RESULTING IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS FROM 21Z ONWARD POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR VSBY AT
SOME AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT THOUGH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211703
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z RESULTING IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS FROM 21Z ONWARD POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR VSBY AT
SOME AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT THOUGH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211703
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z RESULTING IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS FROM 21Z ONWARD POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR VSBY AT
SOME AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT THOUGH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211703
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z RESULTING IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS FROM 21Z ONWARD POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR VSBY AT
SOME AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT THOUGH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211137
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 17Z AND SPREADING NORTH...REACHING THE I70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SW COLORADO AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 9K
FEET. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211137
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 17Z AND SPREADING NORTH...REACHING THE I70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SW COLORADO AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 9K
FEET. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211137
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 17Z AND SPREADING NORTH...REACHING THE I70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SW COLORADO AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 9K
FEET. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211137
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 17Z AND SPREADING NORTH...REACHING THE I70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS AT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SW COLORADO AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 9K
FEET. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT SPREADING INTO THE
VALLEYS AFTER 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS TO
40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. KTEX AND KASE WILL SEE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WITH THE LOWER VALLEY SITES RUNNING AROUND
30 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DRIVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE A
HALF INCH. NOSE OF DEEPER SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE SAN JUANS BY
MIDDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING AND LIFTING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINOUS BARRIERS WILL FIRE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS AFTER 3
PM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ANTICIPATED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE
SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL HIGH MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR STARTS TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
THEN SHOVES THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A BREAK EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT UPPER
LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM TAPPING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ROLLING AS
FORCING ALONG PEAKS AND INFLUENCE OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARD UTAH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL STAY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS
WEAK CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD DISORGANIZED
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C...MORE HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW IS EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND THIS BRINGS DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORM WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER THE WRN
COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH DESERT VALLEYS ACROSS ERN UTAH
INTO EXTREME WRN COLORADO MAY STAY DRY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AFTER
18Z...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT SPREADING INTO THE
VALLEYS AFTER 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS TO
40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. KTEX AND KASE WILL SEE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WITH THE LOWER VALLEY SITES RUNNING AROUND
30 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
     FRIDAY FOR COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC




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