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000
FXUS65 KGJT 270442
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
942 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GRAND JUNCTION HITTING 57 EARLIER
TODAY. ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD AND TIED FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
SINCE THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS WHAT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFTING AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH SOME STRETCHING OF VORTICITY FIELDS AND
SINKING MOTIONS UNDER THE RIDGE...HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AS MODELS DRAG A WAVE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NNE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE RIDGE...EXPECT SOME ACCELERATION IN
FORWARD MOTION WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLEARING OUT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND WEAK CAA...TEMPS WILL BE
BACKING DOWN OFF TODAYS NEAR RECORD WARMTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE DAMPENED TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NE UT/NW CO ON WED. DYNAMIC
FORCING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE BUT WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NRN CO MTNS. THE CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE RATHER
QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WHERE LESSER MOISTURE EXISTS.

A LARGE-SCALE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED SPLITTING FLOW
IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THU-THU NIGHT
BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SHOULD FOCUS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PRECIPITATION ON SE UT/SW CO THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH WILL HAVE ALSO HAVE A CHANCE. KEY WILL BE
TEMPERATURE AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CURRENT FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPS AROUND -3C OR -4C
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX AT DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPGS FRI AND
SNOW FRI NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK STORM FOR THE SOUTH.

MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP FARTHER AWAY TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE COLORADO AND
UTAH FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START IN
SOUTHEAST UTAH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS WILL
BE VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. IMPACTS TO AVIATION WOULD BE FROM
ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS AS CIGS AND VSBYS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE A THREAT TO FALL BELOW VFR THROUGH 27/00Z. AFTER THIS THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. SOME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KASE AND KEGE
TERMINALS AS FAR AS ILS CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 270442
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
942 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GRAND JUNCTION HITTING 57 EARLIER
TODAY. ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD AND TIED FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
SINCE THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS WHAT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFTING AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH SOME STRETCHING OF VORTICITY FIELDS AND
SINKING MOTIONS UNDER THE RIDGE...HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AS MODELS DRAG A WAVE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NNE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE RIDGE...EXPECT SOME ACCELERATION IN
FORWARD MOTION WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLEARING OUT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND WEAK CAA...TEMPS WILL BE
BACKING DOWN OFF TODAYS NEAR RECORD WARMTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE DAMPENED TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NE UT/NW CO ON WED. DYNAMIC
FORCING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE BUT WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NRN CO MTNS. THE CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE RATHER
QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WHERE LESSER MOISTURE EXISTS.

A LARGE-SCALE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED SPLITTING FLOW
IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THU-THU NIGHT
BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SHOULD FOCUS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PRECIPITATION ON SE UT/SW CO THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH WILL HAVE ALSO HAVE A CHANCE. KEY WILL BE
TEMPERATURE AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CURRENT FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPS AROUND -3C OR -4C
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX AT DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPGS FRI AND
SNOW FRI NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK STORM FOR THE SOUTH.

MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP FARTHER AWAY TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE COLORADO AND
UTAH FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START IN
SOUTHEAST UTAH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS WILL
BE VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. IMPACTS TO AVIATION WOULD BE FROM
ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS AS CIGS AND VSBYS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE A THREAT TO FALL BELOW VFR THROUGH 27/00Z. AFTER THIS THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. SOME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KASE AND KEGE
TERMINALS AS FAR AS ILS CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 270148
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
648 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GRAND JUNCTION HITTING 57 EARLIER
TODAY. ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD AND TIED FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
SINCE THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS WHAT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFTING AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH SOME STRETCHING OF VORTICITY FIELDS AND
SINKING MOTIONS UNDER THE RIDGE...HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AS MODELS DRAG A WAVE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NNE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE RIDGE...EXPECT SOME ACCELERATION IN
FORWARD MOTION WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLEARING OUT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND WEAK CAA...TEMPS WILL BE
BACKING DOWN OFF TODAYS NEAR RECORD WARMTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE DAMPENED TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NE UT/NW CO ON WED. DYNAMIC
FORCING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE BUT WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NRN CO MTNS. THE CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE RATHER
QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WHERE LESSER MOISTURE EXISTS.

A LARGE-SCALE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED SPLITTING FLOW
IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THU-THU NIGHT
BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SHOULD FOCUS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PRECIPITATION ON SE UT/SW CO THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH WILL HAVE ALSO HAVE A CHANCE. KEY WILL BE
TEMPERATURE AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CURRENT FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPS AROUND -3C OR -4C
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX AT DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPGS FRI AND
SNOW FRI NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK STORM FOR THE SOUTH.

MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP FARTHER AWAY TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAYERED MID
AND HIGH CLOUD WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262203
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GRAND JUNCTION HITTING 57 EARLIER
TODAY. ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD AND TIED FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
SINCE THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS WHAT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFTING AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH SOME STRETCHING OF VORTICITY FIELDS AND
SINKING MOTIONS UNDER THE RIDGE...HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AS MODELS DRAG A WAVE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NNE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE RIDGE...EXPECT SOME ACCELERATION IN
FORWARD MOTION WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLEARING OUT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND WEAK CAA...TEMPS WILL BE
BACKING DOWN OFF TODAYS NEAR RECORD WARMTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE DAMPENED TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NE UT/NW CO ON WED. DYNAMIC
FORCING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE BUT WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NRN CO MTNS. THE CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE RATHER
QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WHERE LESSER MOISTURE EXISTS.

A LARGE-SCALE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED SPLITTING FLOW
IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THU-THU NIGHT
BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SHOULD FOCUS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PRECIPITATION ON SE UT/SW CO THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH WILL HAVE ALSO HAVE A CHANCE. KEY WILL BE
TEMPERATURE AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CURRENT FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPS AROUND -3C OR -4C
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX AT DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPGS FRI AND
SNOW FRI NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK STORM FOR THE SOUTH.

MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP FARTHER AWAY TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AFTER 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262203
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GRAND JUNCTION HITTING 57 EARLIER
TODAY. ONE DEGREE OFF THE RECORD AND TIED FOR OUR WARMEST DAY
SINCE THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS WHAT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFTING AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA AND
WESTERN UTAH. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH SOME STRETCHING OF VORTICITY FIELDS AND
SINKING MOTIONS UNDER THE RIDGE...HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AS MODELS DRAG A WAVE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO LIFT NNE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM
GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE RIDGE...EXPECT SOME ACCELERATION IN
FORWARD MOTION WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES CLEARING OUT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND WEAK CAA...TEMPS WILL BE
BACKING DOWN OFF TODAYS NEAR RECORD WARMTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE DAMPENED TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS NE UT/NW CO ON WED. DYNAMIC
FORCING DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE BUT WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE NRN CO MTNS. THE CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE RATHER
QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHWARD WHERE LESSER MOISTURE EXISTS.

A LARGE-SCALE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUED SPLITTING FLOW
IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THU-THU NIGHT
BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SHOULD FOCUS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PRECIPITATION ON SE UT/SW CO THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THOUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH WILL HAVE ALSO HAVE A CHANCE. KEY WILL BE
TEMPERATURE AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CURRENT FORECASTED 700 MB TEMPS AROUND -3C OR -4C
WOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX AT DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPGS FRI AND
SNOW FRI NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK STORM FOR THE SOUTH.

MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP FARTHER AWAY TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AFTER 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261712
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1012 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK ON NO CHANGES OR MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EAST PACIFIC REX BLOCK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING. THIS WILL FORCE THE TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNING FROM THE WEST TEXAS
PLAINS TO GREAT BASIN AN PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THIS NEGATIVE
TILT IT WILL BE RATHER STUBBORN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE GAINING MOMENTUM EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. WHAT MIGHT HAVE ONCE BEEN A PROMISING OUTLOOK
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA IS QUICKLY CRUMBLING. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS STORM WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. THE
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THAT APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS BY
SUNRISE...QUICKLY THINS AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IS WANING. AS
A RESULT DELAYED POPS SOME TONIGHT AND LOWERED ON TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 10000 FEET. THE ONLY POSITIVE
TO COME OUT OF THIS WILL BE AN RAIN ON SNOW WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN
PLACE. THE UINTA BASIN DID MIX NICELY WITH ONLY THE GUNNISON BASIN
KEEPING THE COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE. HARD NOT TO LEAN TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND USED HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY AS A BASE WITH TWEAKED
UPWARD. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGHS DOWN BACK SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

EACH MODEL RUNS SHOWS LESS QPF AS BAJA CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE
ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGE AXIS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS 315K
ISENTROPIC LEVEL DEPICT THE HUMIDITY FIELDS BECOMING FRAGMENTED
AND STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN SLOPE. THE COLD CORE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND SHEARS
ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE DRAGS ACROSS NW COLORADO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...APPEARS THAT MOUNTAIN SNOW
POTENTIAL IS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

THE SRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN/BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST AND SENDS MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOW
MUCH IMPACTS UTAH AND COLORADO REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THERE IS SOME
MODEL SPREAD THAT BRINGS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MOISTURE SURGE
INTERACTS WITH THE NRN STREAM. THE ECMWF SHOWS MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE REACHING SW COLORADO
ON FRIDAY BUT RETREATS SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PCPN APPEARS CENTERED ON FRIDAY OVER SW COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AFTER 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 261031
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EAST PACIFIC REX BLOCK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING. THIS WILL FORCE THE TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNING FROM THE WEST TEXAS
PLAINS TO GREAT BASIN AN PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THIS NEGATIVE
TILT IT WILL BE RATHER STUBBORN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE GAINING MOMENTUM EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. WHAT MIGHT HAVE ONCE BEEN A PROMISING OUTLOOK
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA IS QUICKLY CRUMBLING. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS STORM WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. THE
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THAT APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS BY
SUNRISE...QUICKLY THINS AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IS WANING. AS
A RESULT DELAYED POPS SOME TONIGHT AND LOWERED ON TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 10000 FEET. THE ONLY POSITIVE
TO COME OUT OF THIS WILL BE AN RAIN ON SNOW WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN
PLACE. THE UINTA BASIN DID MIX NICELY WITH ONLY THE GUNNISON BASIN
KEEPING THE COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE. HARD NOT TO LEAN TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND USED HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY AS A BASE WITH TWEAKED
UPWARD. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGHS DOWN BACK SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

EACH MODEL RUNS SHOWS LESS QPF AS BAJA CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE
ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGE AXIS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS 315K
ISENTROPIC LEVEL DEPICT THE HUMIDITY FIELDS BECOMING FRAGMENTED
AND STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN SLOPE. THE COLD CORE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND SHEARS
ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE DRAGS ACROSS NW COLORADO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...APPEARS THAT MOUNTAIN SNOW
POTENTIAL IS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

THE SRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN/BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST AND SENDS MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOW
MUCH IMPACTS UTAH AND COLORADO REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THERE IS SOME
MODEL SPREAD THAT BRINGS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MOISTURE SURGE
INTERACTS WITH THE NRN STREAM. THE ECMWF SHOWS MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE REACHING SW COLORADO
ON FRIDAY BUT RETREATS SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PCPN APPEARS CENTERED ON FRIDAY OVER SW COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261031
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EAST PACIFIC REX BLOCK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM TROUGHING. THIS WILL FORCE THE TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALIGNING FROM THE WEST TEXAS
PLAINS TO GREAT BASIN AN PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THIS NEGATIVE
TILT IT WILL BE RATHER STUBBORN TO PUSH EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE GAINING MOMENTUM EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. WHAT MIGHT HAVE ONCE BEEN A PROMISING OUTLOOK
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA IS QUICKLY CRUMBLING. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS STORM WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. THE
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THAT APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS BY
SUNRISE...QUICKLY THINS AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IS WANING. AS
A RESULT DELAYED POPS SOME TONIGHT AND LOWERED ON TUESDAY. SOME
OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SHOWERS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 10000 FEET. THE ONLY POSITIVE
TO COME OUT OF THIS WILL BE AN RAIN ON SNOW WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN
PLACE. THE UINTA BASIN DID MIX NICELY WITH ONLY THE GUNNISON BASIN
KEEPING THE COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE. HARD NOT TO LEAN TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND USED HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY AS A BASE WITH TWEAKED
UPWARD. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGHS DOWN BACK SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

EACH MODEL RUNS SHOWS LESS QPF AS BAJA CALIFORNIA SHORT WAVE
ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGE AXIS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS 315K
ISENTROPIC LEVEL DEPICT THE HUMIDITY FIELDS BECOMING FRAGMENTED
AND STRETCHED AS IT CROSSES THE WESTERN SLOPE. THE COLD CORE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND SHEARS
ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE DRAGS ACROSS NW COLORADO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...APPEARS THAT MOUNTAIN SNOW
POTENTIAL IS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.

THE SRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN/BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST AND SENDS MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOW
MUCH IMPACTS UTAH AND COLORADO REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THERE IS SOME
MODEL SPREAD THAT BRINGS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS MOISTURE SURGE
INTERACTS WITH THE NRN STREAM. THE ECMWF SHOWS MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED SOUTHWARD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE REACHING SW COLORADO
ON FRIDAY BUT RETREATS SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PCPN APPEARS CENTERED ON FRIDAY OVER SW COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
945 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE REX BLOCK OVER
THE WEST COAST REMAINED IN PLACE. AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR HAS
CAUSED LOW STRATUS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY. MOST STRIKING WILL BE THE UNUSUAL
WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A NUMBER OF VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE IN
THE GUNNISON BASIN...A STRONG INVERSION WILL PREVENT THEM FROM
ENJOYING THESE MILD WINTER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE
REINTRODUCED TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW AT
THE BASE OF THE REX BLOCK. MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD ON ARRIVAL TIME
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH...BUT FAVORED SLOWER ECMWF/GFS AS
MODELS LIKELY TOO QUICK TO MOVE THE BLOCKING PATTERN PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WEST BREAKS DOWN BUT RETURNS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THE BAJA LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK OPENS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THEN PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH THE NAM
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RISING TO 6 G/KG OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS. SOME
WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURS BUT THE COLD CORE ARCS AROUND THIS
FORECAST AREA. SO SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 700MB TEMPS INITIALLY
AROUND 0C DROP TO -4C OVERNIGHT LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM 9KFT TO
AROUND 7KFT. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN
INCHES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH HIGH PRESSURE
REBOUNDS OVER THE WEST. FRIDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS TO
THE NORTHERN BAJA AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE LAS VEGAS-YUMA AREA.
THIS BRINGS MOIST AND MILDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

BY NEXT SUNDAY THE LOW SINKS DOWN THE BAJA ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE GUNNISON BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WORKING THROUGH. THE UINTA BASIN DID MIX OUT
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS AND
FOG WILL NOT INHIBIT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. WITH RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DIRECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 252201
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE REX BLOCK OVER
THE WEST COAST REMAINED IN PLACE. AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR HAS
CAUSED LOW STRATUS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY. MOST STRIKING WILL BE THE UNUSUAL
WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A NUMBER OF VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE IN
THE GUNNISON BASIN...A STRONG INVERSION WILL PREVENT THEM FROM
ENJOYING THESE MILD WINTER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BE
REINTRODUCED TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW AT
THE BASE OF THE REX BLOCK. MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD ON ARRIVAL TIME
OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH...BUT FAVORED SLOWER ECMWF/GFS AS
MODELS LIKELY TOO QUICK TO MOVE THE BLOCKING PATTERN PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WEST BREAKS DOWN BUT RETURNS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THE BAJA LOW PORTION OF THE BLOCK OPENS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THEN PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH THE NAM
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RISING TO 6 G/KG OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS. SOME
WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURS BUT THE COLD CORE ARCS AROUND THIS
FORECAST AREA. SO SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 700MB TEMPS INITIALLY
AROUND 0C DROP TO -4C OVERNIGHT LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FROM 9KFT TO
AROUND 7KFT. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN
INCHES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH HIGH PRESSURE
REBOUNDS OVER THE WEST. FRIDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS TO
THE NORTHERN BAJA AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE LAS VEGAS-YUMA AREA.
THIS BRINGS MOIST AND MILDER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAVORING SW-FACING SLOPES. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.

BY NEXT SUNDAY THE LOW SINKS DOWN THE BAJA ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL IN THE GUNNISON BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 20Z ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR KASE.
AROUND THIS TIME EXPECT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MIXES
IN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
956 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

REX PATTERN BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED OFF THE LEFT COASTLINE OF
NOAM THIS MORNING WITH DEEP TROUGHING TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE INTERFACE OF THIS PATTERN IS PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE
CREST THE RIDGE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE IS PILED
UP AGAIN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT OUTSIDE THE
DENDRITIC ZONE SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OUT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS POOLING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SALT LAKE
BASIN INTO EASTERN IDAHO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOLDS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS BRINGS IN
WARMER...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL INVERSIONS.
THERE WILL BE GOOD WARMING IN MID SLOPE AREAS NEAR THIS INVERSION.
THE VALLEYS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC. LACK OF SNOW COVER OVER
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN LOW VALLEYS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER
VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY THE GUNNISON BASIN WILL STRUGGLE. IN FACT
WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE GUNNY AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
THROUGH THE TEENS. VERNAL A BIT MORE TRICKY YET AS THE NAM PBL
MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTING STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE
THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM12 WAS
SUPERIOR CATCHING STRATUS TRENDS THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED AND
GUIDANCE SLOW TO CATCH UP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST HINTED AT THIS IN
GRIDS AND WILL WATCH THE TREND. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE EXTENDS EAST AND
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. STRONG RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS THE
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE...EVIDENT IN THE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
FIELDS THAT SHRINK WITH TIME. THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD CORE TRACKS NORTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...BUT MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION BRIEFLY AFFECTS
THE NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WRN COLORADO. THE NET RESULT IS LIGHT
QPF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ASPECTS OF THE SRN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH WITH A FLUCTUATING WET BULB ZERO LINE BUT
GENERALLY AROUND 9K FEET). THE NRN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STAND A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING APPRECIABLE QPF AMOUNTS. COLD ADVECTION
IS GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE MOUNTAIN BASES...BUT
SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS LIGHT AS THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED
EVENT AS THE SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES DOWNSTREAM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND SENDS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LESS CLEAR HOW
MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 20Z ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR KASE.
AROUND THIS TIME EXPECT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MIXES
IN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 251656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
956 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

REX PATTERN BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED OFF THE LEFT COASTLINE OF
NOAM THIS MORNING WITH DEEP TROUGHING TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE INTERFACE OF THIS PATTERN IS PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE
CREST THE RIDGE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE IS PILED
UP AGAIN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT OUTSIDE THE
DENDRITIC ZONE SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OUT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS POOLING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SALT LAKE
BASIN INTO EASTERN IDAHO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOLDS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS BRINGS IN
WARMER...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL INVERSIONS.
THERE WILL BE GOOD WARMING IN MID SLOPE AREAS NEAR THIS INVERSION.
THE VALLEYS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC. LACK OF SNOW COVER OVER
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN LOW VALLEYS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER
VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY THE GUNNISON BASIN WILL STRUGGLE. IN FACT
WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE GUNNY AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
THROUGH THE TEENS. VERNAL A BIT MORE TRICKY YET AS THE NAM PBL
MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTING STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE
THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM12 WAS
SUPERIOR CATCHING STRATUS TRENDS THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED AND
GUIDANCE SLOW TO CATCH UP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST HINTED AT THIS IN
GRIDS AND WILL WATCH THE TREND. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE EXTENDS EAST AND
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. STRONG RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS THE
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE...EVIDENT IN THE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
FIELDS THAT SHRINK WITH TIME. THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD CORE TRACKS NORTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...BUT MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION BRIEFLY AFFECTS
THE NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WRN COLORADO. THE NET RESULT IS LIGHT
QPF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ASPECTS OF THE SRN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH WITH A FLUCTUATING WET BULB ZERO LINE BUT
GENERALLY AROUND 9K FEET). THE NRN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STAND A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING APPRECIABLE QPF AMOUNTS. COLD ADVECTION
IS GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE MOUNTAIN BASES...BUT
SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS LIGHT AS THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED
EVENT AS THE SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES DOWNSTREAM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND SENDS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LESS CLEAR HOW
MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 20Z ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS FOR KASE.
AROUND THIS TIME EXPECT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MIXES
IN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

REX PATTERN BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED OFF THE LEFT COASTLINE OF
NOAM THIS MORNING WITH DEEP TROUGHING TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE INTERFACE OF THIS PATTERN IS PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE
CREST THE RIDGE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE IS PILED
UP AGAIN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT OUTSIDE THE
DENDRITIC ZONE SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OUT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS POOLING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SALT LAKE
BASIN INTO EASTERN IDAHO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOLDS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS BRINGS IN
WARMER...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL INVERSIONS.
THERE WILL BE GOOD WARMING IN MID SLOPE AREAS NEAR THIS INVERSION.
THE VALLEYS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC. LACK OF SNOW COVER OVER
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN LOW VALLEYS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER
VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY THE GUNNISON BASIN WILL STRUGGLE. IN FACT
WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE GUNNY AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
THROUGH THE TEENS. VERNAL A BIT MORE TRICKY YET AS THE NAM PBL
MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTING STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE
THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM12 WAS
SUPERIOR CATCHING STRATUS TRENDS THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED AND
GUIDANCE SLOW TO CATCH UP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST HINTED AT THIS IN
GRIDS AND WILL WATCH THE TREND. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE EXTENDS EAST AND
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. STRONG RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS THE
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE...EVIDENT IN THE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
FIELDS THAT SHRINK WITH TIME. THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD CORE TRACKS NORTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...BUT MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION BRIEFLY AFFECTS
THE NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WRN COLORADO. THE NET RESULT IS LIGHT
QPF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ASPECTS OF THE SRN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH WITH A FLUCTUATING WET BULB ZERO LINE BUT
GENERALLY AROUND 9K FEET). THE NRN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STAND A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING APPRECIABLE QPF AMOUNTS. COLD ADVECTION
IS GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE MOUNTAIN BASES...BUT
SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS LIGHT AS THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED
EVENT AS THE SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES DOWNSTREAM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND SENDS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LESS CLEAR HOW
MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BROKEN STRATUS DECK THAT EXISTS AT KASE AND KEGE WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

REX PATTERN BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED OFF THE LEFT COASTLINE OF
NOAM THIS MORNING WITH DEEP TROUGHING TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE INTERFACE OF THIS PATTERN IS PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE
CREST THE RIDGE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE IS PILED
UP AGAIN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT OUTSIDE THE
DENDRITIC ZONE SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OUT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS POOLING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SALT LAKE
BASIN INTO EASTERN IDAHO. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO
THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FOLDS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS BRINGS IN
WARMER...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL INVERSIONS.
THERE WILL BE GOOD WARMING IN MID SLOPE AREAS NEAR THIS INVERSION.
THE VALLEYS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC. LACK OF SNOW COVER OVER
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN LOW VALLEYS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER
VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY THE GUNNISON BASIN WILL STRUGGLE. IN FACT
WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE GUNNY AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
THROUGH THE TEENS. VERNAL A BIT MORE TRICKY YET AS THE NAM PBL
MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTING STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE
THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM12 WAS
SUPERIOR CATCHING STRATUS TRENDS THE LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED AND
GUIDANCE SLOW TO CATCH UP. FOR NOW HAVE JUST HINTED AT THIS IN
GRIDS AND WILL WATCH THE TREND. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE EXTENDS EAST AND
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. STRONG RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS THE
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE...EVIDENT IN THE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
FIELDS THAT SHRINK WITH TIME. THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD CORE TRACKS NORTH OF THE
COLORADO BORDER...BUT MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION BRIEFLY AFFECTS
THE NRN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WRN COLORADO. THE NET RESULT IS LIGHT
QPF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ASPECTS OF THE SRN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH WITH A FLUCTUATING WET BULB ZERO LINE BUT
GENERALLY AROUND 9K FEET). THE NRN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STAND A
BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING APPRECIABLE QPF AMOUNTS. COLD ADVECTION
IS GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE MOUNTAIN BASES...BUT
SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS LIGHT AS THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED
EVENT AS THE SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES DOWNSTREAM.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FORMS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND SENDS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LESS CLEAR HOW
MUCH MOISTURE SPREADS INTO UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BROKEN STRATUS DECK THAT EXISTS AT KASE AND KEGE WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250440
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
940 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. ELEVATED
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BROUGHT A BROAD AND THICK CIRRUS SHIELD
WHICH ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH.

MEANWHILE...SITES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO HAVE SEEN A LOWERING OF
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH. THE NAM WAS MORE PRODUCTIVE WITH RESPECT TO SNOW COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING FROM THE WEAK MOISTURE SURGE AS COMPARED TO BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDED BY MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW APPEARED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WITH
DYNAMIC LIFT LACKING. WAA AT RIDGE LEVEL WORKS AGAINST SNOWFALL
AND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR FILLS IN ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
HOWEVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER FOR ALL BUT
STRONGLY INVERTED VALLEYS LIKE THE GUNNISON BASIN. EXPECT LOWS TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
OFF THE BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS THIS LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS OPEN WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON WED. HOWEVER
AS THIS DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH...IT WILL MAINLY STAY
FIRST TO OUR WEST...AND THEN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIDGE REMAINS AN
EFFECTIVE BLOCK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE DISTURBANCE BRUSHES FIRST THE WEST
THEN NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE....MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ON TUE...AND
THEN OVER THE NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE LOW...WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE STRUGGLES AGAINST
THE RIDGE.

THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
REBOUND AFTER TUE`S WAVE. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST SET TO MOVE
INLAND. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL STREAM UP INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN RATHER POOR FOR OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
PATTERN...RESULTING IN BIG DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL MAKE IT NORTH
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT MOST OF
THE ACTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES WE WILL BE
WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING EARLY FRI AND PERSISTING INTO
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. FLIGHT
TERMINALS ARE AT VFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION IS SPARSE AND
MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS. KASE AND KEGE ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER ILS CIGS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS MIRROR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND SUGGEST SOME LOWERING OF THE CIGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTING MOISTURE UP THE ROARING
FORK VALLEY. KASE COULD DIP TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z. NO
OTHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 250440
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
940 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. ELEVATED
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BROUGHT A BROAD AND THICK CIRRUS SHIELD
WHICH ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH.

MEANWHILE...SITES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO HAVE SEEN A LOWERING OF
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH. THE NAM WAS MORE PRODUCTIVE WITH RESPECT TO SNOW COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING FROM THE WEAK MOISTURE SURGE AS COMPARED TO BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDED BY MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW APPEARED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WITH
DYNAMIC LIFT LACKING. WAA AT RIDGE LEVEL WORKS AGAINST SNOWFALL
AND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR FILLS IN ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
HOWEVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER FOR ALL BUT
STRONGLY INVERTED VALLEYS LIKE THE GUNNISON BASIN. EXPECT LOWS TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
OFF THE BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS THIS LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS OPEN WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON WED. HOWEVER
AS THIS DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH...IT WILL MAINLY STAY
FIRST TO OUR WEST...AND THEN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIDGE REMAINS AN
EFFECTIVE BLOCK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE DISTURBANCE BRUSHES FIRST THE WEST
THEN NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE....MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ON TUE...AND
THEN OVER THE NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE LOW...WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE STRUGGLES AGAINST
THE RIDGE.

THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
REBOUND AFTER TUE`S WAVE. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST SET TO MOVE
INLAND. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL STREAM UP INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN RATHER POOR FOR OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
PATTERN...RESULTING IN BIG DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL MAKE IT NORTH
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT MOST OF
THE ACTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES WE WILL BE
WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING EARLY FRI AND PERSISTING INTO
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. FLIGHT
TERMINALS ARE AT VFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION IS SPARSE AND
MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS. KASE AND KEGE ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER ILS CIGS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS MIRROR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND SUGGEST SOME LOWERING OF THE CIGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIRECTING MOISTURE UP THE ROARING
FORK VALLEY. KASE COULD DIP TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z. NO
OTHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 242200
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. ELEVATED
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BROUGHT A BROAD AND THICK CIRRUS SHIELD
WHICH ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH.

MEANWHILE...SITES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO HAVE SEEN A LOWERING OF
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH. THE NAM WAS MORE PRODUCTIVE WITH RESPECT TO SNOW COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING FROM THE WEAK MOISTURE SURGE AS COMPARED TO BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDED BY MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW APPEARED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WITH
DYNAMIC LIFT LACKING. WAA AT RIDGE LEVEL WORKS AGAINST SNOWFALL
AND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR FILLS IN ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
HOWEVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER FOR ALL BUT
STRONGLY INVERTED VALLEYS LIKE THE GUNNISON BASIN. EXPECT LOWS TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
OFF THE BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS THIS LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS OPEN WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON WED. HOWEVER
AS THIS DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH...IT WILL MAINLY STAY
FIRST TO OUR WEST...AND THEN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIDGE REMAINS AN
EFFECTIVE BLOCK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE DISTURBANCE BRUSHES FIRST THE WEST
THEN NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE....MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ON TUE...AND
THEN OVER THE NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE LOW...WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE STRUGGLES AGAINST
THE RIDGE.

THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
REBOUND AFTER TUE`S WAVE. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST SET TO MOVE
INLAND. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL STREAM UP INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN RATHER POOR FOR OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
PATTERN...RESULTING IN BIG DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL MAKE IT NORTH
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT MOST OF
THE ACTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES WE WILL BE
WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING EARLY FRI AND PERSISTING INTO
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF KSBS RESULTING
IN PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AFTER 21Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 242200
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. ELEVATED
MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BROUGHT A BROAD AND THICK CIRRUS SHIELD
WHICH ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH.

MEANWHILE...SITES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO HAVE SEEN A LOWERING OF
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTH. THE NAM WAS MORE PRODUCTIVE WITH RESPECT TO SNOW COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY RESULTING FROM THE WEAK MOISTURE SURGE AS COMPARED TO BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT PROVIDED BY MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW APPEARED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WITH
DYNAMIC LIFT LACKING. WAA AT RIDGE LEVEL WORKS AGAINST SNOWFALL
AND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR A LITTLE MORE
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR FILLS IN ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
HOWEVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT MILDER FOR ALL BUT
STRONGLY INVERTED VALLEYS LIKE THE GUNNISON BASIN. EXPECT LOWS TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
OFF THE BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS THIS LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS OPEN WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY GET
PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON WED. HOWEVER
AS THIS DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH...IT WILL MAINLY STAY
FIRST TO OUR WEST...AND THEN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIDGE REMAINS AN
EFFECTIVE BLOCK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE DISTURBANCE BRUSHES FIRST THE WEST
THEN NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE....MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE ON TUE...AND
THEN OVER THE NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE LOW...WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE STRUGGLES AGAINST
THE RIDGE.

THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
REBOUND AFTER TUE`S WAVE. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST SET TO MOVE
INLAND. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL STREAM UP INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN RATHER POOR FOR OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
PATTERN...RESULTING IN BIG DIFFERENCES FOR OUR CWA. THE QUESTION
REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL MAKE IT NORTH
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT MOST OF
THE ACTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES WE WILL BE
WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING EARLY FRI AND PERSISTING INTO
SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF KSBS RESULTING
IN PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AFTER 21Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241652
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
952 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH THIS
WINTER REMAINS IN PLACE THE 00Z HAND ANALYSIS CHART. THIS TROUGH
GETS RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE
AND DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE OTHER PERSISTENT FEATURE OF LATE
HAS BEEN A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STUCK OVER THE BAJA REGION. THE
JET TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL PULL THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...CREATING A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY
SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE DRY MONTH OF JANUARY CONTINUES.
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PACIFIC MOISTURE SLAMMING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COASTLINE...WHERE PWATS ARE RUNNING OVER 200 PERCENT.
HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAINS SEEM TO BE ABSORBING MOST OF THIS
MOISTURE AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FALLING
UNDERNEATH THE APPROACHING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WILL TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THE BEST WE CAN REALLY DO IS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...AND CONFIDENCE HERE IS MINUSCULE.
HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TOP OF THE PARK AND GORE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT 300K TRANSPORT VECTORS AND OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES JUST A MOUNTAIN RANGE TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER INLAND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
INVERSIONS WITH MID MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY WHILE
VALLEYS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM...ESPECIALLY THE SNOW COVERED AREAS.
THIS IS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND GUNNISON BASIN
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
FOG HAS NOT SHOWN ITSELF OVER THE GUNNISON AND UINTA BASINS WITH
DRIER AIR MIXING IN IT APPEARS. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW
SITUATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT ENCOUNTERS
THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS THAT COVERS UTAH AND COLORADO.  THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND DYNAMICAL FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND ANY QPF
WILL BE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (POSSIBLY AROUND 8-9K
FEET) GIVEN THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCREPANCY OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE BLENDED APPROACH YIELDS
LOW POP VALUES OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND SKIRTS NRN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT
SENDS MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES UTAH AND COLORADO.

WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.
RIGHT NOW...WINTER IS MISSING IN ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF KSBS RESULTING
IN PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AFTER 21Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241026
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH THIS
WINTER REMAINS IN PLACE THE 00Z HAND ANALYSIS CHART. THIS TROUGH
GETS RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE
AND DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE OTHER PERSISTENT FEATURE OF LATE
HAS BEEN A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STUCK OVER THE BAJA REGION. THE
JET TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL PULL THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...CREATING A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY
SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE DRY MONTH OF JANUARY CONTINUES.
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PACIFIC MOISTURE SLAMMING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COASTLINE...WHERE PWATS ARE RUNNING OVER 200 PERCENT.
HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAINS SEEM TO BE ABSORBING MOST OF THIS
MOSITURE AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FALLING
UNDERNEATH THE APPROACHING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WILL TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THE BEST WE CAN REALLY DO IS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...AND CONFIDENCE HERE IS MINUSCULE.
HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TOP OF THE PARK AND GORE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT 300K TRANSPORT VECTORS AND OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES JUST A MOUNTAIN RANGE TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER INLAND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
INVERSIONS WITH MID MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY WHILE
VALLEYS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM...ESPECIALLY THE SNOW COVERED AREAS.
THIS IS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND GUNNISON BASIN
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
FOG HAS NOT SHOWN ITSELF OVER THE GUNNISON AND UINTA BASINS WITH
DRIER AIR MIXING IN IT APPEARS. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW
SITUATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT ENCOUNTERS
THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS THAT COVERS UTAH AND COLORADO.  THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND DYNAMICAL FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND ANY QPF
WILL BE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (POSSIBLY AROUND 8-9K
FEET) GIVEN THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCREPANCY OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE BLENDED APPROACH YIELDS
LOW POP VALUES OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND SKIRTS NRN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT
SENDS MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES UTAH AND COLORADO.

WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.
RIGHT NOW...WINTER IS MISSING IN ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY EXIST NORTH AND EAST OF KSBS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241026
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH THIS
WINTER REMAINS IN PLACE THE 00Z HAND ANALYSIS CHART. THIS TROUGH
GETS RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE
AND DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE OTHER PERSISTENT FEATURE OF LATE
HAS BEEN A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STUCK OVER THE BAJA REGION. THE
JET TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL PULL THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...CREATING A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY
SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE DRY MONTH OF JANUARY CONTINUES.
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PACIFIC MOISTURE SLAMMING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COASTLINE...WHERE PWATS ARE RUNNING OVER 200 PERCENT.
HOWEVER THE UPSTREAM MOUNTAINS SEEM TO BE ABSORBING MOST OF THIS
MOSITURE AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FALLING
UNDERNEATH THE APPROACHING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WILL TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THE BEST WE CAN REALLY DO IS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...AND CONFIDENCE HERE IS MINUSCULE.
HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TOP OF THE PARK AND GORE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT 300K TRANSPORT VECTORS AND OMEGA
FIELDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES JUST A MOUNTAIN RANGE TO
OUR EAST. THEREFORE THE REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER INLAND. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
INVERSIONS WITH MID MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY WHILE
VALLEYS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM...ESPECIALLY THE SNOW COVERED AREAS.
THIS IS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND GUNNISON BASIN
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.
FOG HAS NOT SHOWN ITSELF OVER THE GUNNISON AND UINTA BASINS WITH
DRIER AIR MIXING IN IT APPEARS. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW
SITUATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD...BUT ENCOUNTERS
THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS THAT COVERS UTAH AND COLORADO.  THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND DYNAMICAL FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION AND ANY QPF
WILL BE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (POSSIBLY AROUND 8-9K
FEET) GIVEN THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCREPANCY OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE BLENDED APPROACH YIELDS
LOW POP VALUES OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND SKIRTS NRN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT
SENDS MORE MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE REACHES UTAH AND COLORADO.

WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.
RIGHT NOW...WINTER IS MISSING IN ACTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY EXIST NORTH AND EAST OF KSBS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





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