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000
FXUS65 KGJT 230405
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS PICKING BACK UP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS WOULD
PUT THE FRONT THROUGH VERNAL AND PRICE AS OF 945 PM MDT AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS COMING IN CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE VALLEYS TO OVER
60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BOOKCLIFFS. DOUGLAS PASS
RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST TO 67 MPH. WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
VIRGA...WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT
WIND HIGHLIGHTS BY A FEW HOURS FOR POTENTIAL OF 45 TO 60 MPH
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL BE QUICKLY DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
GOOD 20 DEGREES OF COOLING POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS TO COVER
EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN UTAH
AND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. EVENING 00Z RAOB FROM GRAND JUNCTION
INDICATES STRONGER WINDS ABOUT 4000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE WIND
ADVISORIES STILL ON TRACK. IN ADDITION...SFC OBS NEAR SALT LAKE
CITY INDICATING WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT
TIMING BRINGS THE FRONT TO A VERNAL TO CANYONLANDS LINE BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WERE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30S AND 40S
WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA AT OR JUST ABOVE 45 MPH. FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS.  GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN THE SE
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AT DOUGLAS PASS SO ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST UP HERE.  SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY VIRGA BASED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING DETECTED.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY DUST SETTLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL USHER
IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAYS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.  SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
BY SUNSET AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.  CLEARING SKIES AND
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR ANY
FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BUDGES IT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CALMER AND WARMER PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROF. FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD FARTHER WEST AND THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. SO FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GUSTY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
IN HANDLING THE WESTERN TROF/S PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TREND FOR THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
NORTHWARD BUT FOR NOW STILL BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 9000 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
TO THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS ARE
COOLING TO AROUND -6. THIS IS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO TRENDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STILL MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS WANING. WITH THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A BLOCKY
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR BELOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BY 10Z WEDNESADY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUSTS WITH
SPEEDS CLOCKING IN OVER 40 KTS IN THE VALLEYS WITH 60 KTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS CALM DOWN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001>003-006-011-
     020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022>025-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
618 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN UTAH
AND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. EVENING 00Z RAOB FROM GRAND JUNCTION
INDICATES STRONGER WINDS ABOUT 4000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE WIND
ADVISORIES STILL ON TRACK. IN ADDITION...SFC OBS NEAR SALT LAKE
CITY INDICATING WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT
TIMING BRINGS THE FRONT TO A VERNAL TO CANYONLANDS LINE BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WERE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30S AND 40S
WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA AT OR JUST ABOVE 45 MPH. FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS.  GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN THE SE
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AT DOUGLAS PASS SO ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST UP HERE.  SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY VIRGA BASED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING DETECTED.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY DUST SETTLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL USHER
IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAYS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.  SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
BY SUNSET AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.  CLEARING SKIES AND
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR ANY
FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BUDGES IT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CALMER AND WARMER PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROF. FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD FARTHER WEST AND THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. SO FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GUSTY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
IN HANDLING THE WESTERN TROF/S PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TREND FOR THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
NORTHWARD BUT FOR NOW STILL BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 9000 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
TO THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS ARE
COOLING TO AROUND -6. THIS IS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO TRENDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STILL MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS WANING. WITH THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A BLOCKY
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR BELOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 45 KTS AS IT MOVES IN WITH AREAS OF
BLDU RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MOUNTAIN TOPS BECOMING OBSCURED AT TIMES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ON A KVEL TO KCNY LINE BY 06Z THIS EVENING AND IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BY 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022>025-
     027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 222255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WERE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30S AND 40S
WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA AT OR JUST ABOVE 45 MPH. FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS.  GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN THE SE
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AT DOUGLAS PASS SO ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST UP HERE.  SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY VIRGA BASED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING DETECTED.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY DUST SETTLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL USHER
IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAYS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.  SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
BY SUNSET AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.  CLEARING SKIES AND
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR ANY
FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BUDGES IT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CALMER AND WARMER PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROF. FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD FARTHER WEST AND THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. SO FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GUSTY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
IN HANDLING THE WESTERN TROF/S PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TREND FOR THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
NORTHWARD BUT FOR NOW STILL BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 9000 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
TO THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS ARE
COOLING TO AROUND -6. THIS IS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO TRENDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STILL MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS WANING. WITH THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A BLOCKY
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR BELOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 45 KTS AS IT MOVES IN WITH AREAS OF
BLDU RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MOUNTAIN TOPS BECOMING OBSCURED AT TIMES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ON A KVEL TO KCNY LINE BY 06Z THIS EVENING AND IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BY 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022>025-
     027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 222155
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WERE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30S AND 40S
WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA AT OR JUST ABOVE 45 MPH. FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS.  GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN THE SE
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AT DOUGLAS PASS SO ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST UP HERE.  SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY VIRGA BASED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING DETECTED.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY DUST SETTLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL USHER
IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAYS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.  SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
BY SUNSET AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.  CLEARING SKIES AND
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR ANY
FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BUDGES IT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CALMER AND WARMER PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROF. FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD FARTHER WEST AND THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. SO FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GUSTY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
IN HANDLING THE WESTERN TROF/S PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TREND FOR THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
NORTHWARD BUT FOR NOW STILL BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 9000 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
TO THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS ARE
COOLING TO AROUND -6. THIS IS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO TRENDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STILL MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS WANING. WITH THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A BLOCKY
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR BELOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG WIND REMAINS THE SCREAMING MESSAGE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW SURFACE GUSTS 35-
45KTS WILL BECOME COMMON WEST OF A KCAG-KDRO LINE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT REACHES KVEL BETWEEN 03Z-05Z AND PUSHES ACROSS MOST OF
WRN COLORADO BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022>025-
     027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 222007
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
207 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 60 MPH AT DOUGLAS PASS AND SOME SITES IN THE
LA SALS SO ADDED THEM TO THE WIND ADVISORY. ALSO ADDED THE
NORTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAIN ZONES AND UINTA BASIN TO THE WIND ADVISORY
AS THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE TIGHTEST IN THIS AREA AS THE FRONT
GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING AND PASSES. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS LOOK
LIKELY IN THE UINTA BASIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO BETTER REFLECT WIND ADVISORIES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL SHALLOW AND WEAK AND
SHOULD BREAK QUICKLY. SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE AS
LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED LAYER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH
700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH TOWARDS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...QG FORCING IS FRAGMENTED AND DELAYED
UNTIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY AND WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE EVENING AND IS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...FAVORING
CANYONLANDS NE INTO THE ROAN PLATEAU IN THE EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SW
700MB WINDS OF 45MPH WILL EASILY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. ANY
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR MORE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND THEREFORE
MOSTLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BUT DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED POST FRONTAL. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OF DUST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS IS LIMITED SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BACKSIDE JET PASSES AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO NW.
SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE IN VALLEYS
WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BLOOMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS FROM NW TO SW WITH HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON
SATURDAY. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE AS THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE BLOCKS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LOW MAY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...BUT THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION BRINGS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO NW COLORADO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG WIND REMAINS THE SCREAMING MESSAGE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW SURFACE GUSTS 35-
45KTS WILL BECOME COMMON WEST OF A KCAG-KDRO LINE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT REACHES KVEL BETWEEN 03Z-05Z AND PUSHES ACROSS MOST OF
WRN COLORADO BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022>025-
     027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221641
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1041 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO BETTER REFLECT WIND ADVISORIES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL SHALLOW AND WEAK AND
SHOULD BREAK QUICKLY. SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE AS
LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED LAYER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH
700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH TOWARDS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...QG FORCING IS FRAGMENTED AND DELAYED
UNTIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY AND WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE EVENING AND IS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...FAVORING
CANYONLANDS NE INTO THE ROAN PLATEAU IN THE EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SW
700MB WINDS OF 45MPH WILL EASILY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. ANY
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR MORE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND THEREFORE
MOSTLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BUT DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED POST FRONTAL. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OF DUST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS IS LIMITED SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BACKSIDE JET PASSES AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO NW.
SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE IN VALLEYS
WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BLOOMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS FROM NW TO SW WITH HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON
SATURDAY. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE AS THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE BLOCKS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LOW MAY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...BUT THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION BRINGS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO NW COLORADO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG WIND REMAINS THE SCREAMING MESSAGE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SW SURFACE GUSTS 35-
45KTS WILL BECOME COMMON WEST OF A KCAG-KDRO LINE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT REACHES KVEL BETWEEN 03Z-05Z AND PUSHES ACROSS MOST OF
WRN COLORADO BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221605
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS IN THE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO BETTER REFLECT WIND ADVISORIES. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL SHALLOW AND WEAK AND
SHOULD BREAK QUICKLY. SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE AS
LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED LAYER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH
700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH TOWARDS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...QG FORCING IS FRAGMENTED AND DELAYED
UNTIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY AND WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE EVENING AND IS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...FAVORING
CANYONLANDS NE INTO THE ROAN PLATEAU IN THE EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SW
700MB WINDS OF 45MPH WILL EASILY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. ANY
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR MORE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND THEREFORE
MOSTLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BUT DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED POST FRONTAL. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OF DUST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS IS LIMITED SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BACKSIDE JET PASSES AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO NW.
SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE IN VALLEYS
WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BLOOMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS FROM NW TO SW WITH HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON
SATURDAY. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE AS THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE BLOCKS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LOW MAY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...BUT THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION BRINGS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO NW COLORADO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIDESPREAD MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16Z WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS COMMON FOR THE DESERT TAF SITES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 21Z-05Z. AFT 05Z...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 25-30 KTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHEAST AROUND 02Z AND SWEEPS ACROSS WRN COLORADO
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT.

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 18Z
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ001-002-006-011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
546 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL SHALLOW AND WEAK AND
SHOULD BREAK QUICKLY. SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE AS
LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED LAYER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH
700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH TOWARDS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...QG FORCING IS FRAGMENTED AND DELAYED
UNTIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY AND WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE EVENING AND IS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...FAVORING
CANYONLANDS NE INTO THE ROAN PLATEAU IN THE EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SW
700MB WINDS OF 45MPH WILL EASILY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. ANY
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR MORE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND THEREFORE
MOSTLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BUT DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED POST FRONTAL. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OF DUST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS IS LIMITED SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BACKSIDE JET PASSES AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO NW.
SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE IN VALLEYS
WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BLOOMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS FROM NW TO SW WITH HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON
SATURDAY. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE AS THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE BLOCKS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LOW MAY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...BUT THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION BRINGS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO NW COLORADO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIDESPREAD MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16Z WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS COMMON FOR THE DESERT TAF SITES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 21Z-05Z. AFT 05Z...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 25-30 KTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHEAST AROUND 02Z AND SWEEPS ACROSS WRN COLORADO
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT.

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 18Z
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ001-002-006-011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL SHALLOW AND WEAK AND
SHOULD BREAK QUICKLY. SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE AS
LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED LAYER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH
700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH TOWARDS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...QG FORCING IS FRAGMENTED AND DELAYED
UNTIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY AND WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE EVENING AND IS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...FAVORING
CANYONLANDS NE INTO THE ROAN PLATEAU IN THE EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SW
700MB WINDS OF 45MPH WILL EASILY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. ANY
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR MORE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND THEREFORE
MOSTLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BUT DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED POST FRONTAL. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OF DUST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS IS LIMITED SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BACKSIDE JET PASSES AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO NW.
SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE IN VALLEYS
WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BLOOMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS FROM NW TO SW WITH HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON
SATURDAY. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE AS THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE BLOCKS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LOW MAY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...BUT THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION BRINGS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO NW COLORADO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN UTAH AROUND 00Z TUESDAY EVENING...AND
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BY 06Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY STRONG AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO BECOME OBSCURED NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ001-002-006-011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 220423
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1023 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE SUNRISE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OROGRAPHIC
DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNVALLEY WINDS SHOULD BE ENHANCED FROM THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.

THIS APPROACHING STORM WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER PLAYER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. SW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
TUE MID-MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN. AFTER ABOUT 21Z IT SHOULD BE WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH SOME LOWER ELEVATION ZONES APPROACHING AND REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES
FROM 21Z TO 04Z TOMORROW EVENING. THE STRONG SW WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST DAYTIME TEMPS ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE SO AM ALSO CALLING FOR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS.

THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND UPLIFT
FROM WARM ADVECTION THAT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THESE WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MOISTURE
BUT STRONGER ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIRGA AND
SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN ADVISED ZONES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE SHEARED SO
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST BY ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING BY THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF
THE BLOCKINESS AND STRONGER ENERGY IN THE HIGH LATITUDES WILL BE
DIRECTED INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS BY A STRONG DIP IN THE
JET STREAM. THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SOME OF THE
FINER DETAILS...THE ENSEMBLES OR MEANS OF THESE MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DOWN AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE WORKED THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD BE TO THE DIVIDE BY LATE
MORNING. A SECONDARY TROUGH/WAVE WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET WILL KEEP SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
DOWNTURN...INSTABILITY AND THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EASTERN TERRAIN. THIS CONVECTION
WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE UNDER THIS RIDGE.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO END UP BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS TREND
REVERSES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGHS WARM SOME 7 TO 12 DEGREES.

A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING UPPER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THIS SET UP. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ARRIVING
LATE FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE ASCENT AND FORCING FROM A ROBUST
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO PUSH
SNOW LEVELS DOWN IN THE UPPER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES
ONSHORE. FOR NOW HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOOKING LIKE THE WAY
TO LEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN UTAH AROUND 00Z TUESDAY EVENING...AND
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BY 06Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY STRONG AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO BECOME OBSCURED NEAR SHOWERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE COMMON OVER EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE GUSTS MY BE AMPLIFIED
BY PASSING SHOWERS OR VIRGA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO HELP PUSH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST
UTAH BY MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE DIVIDE BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212319
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
519 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE SUNRISE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OROGRAPHIC
DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNVALLEY WINDS SHOULD BE ENHANCED FROM THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.

THIS APPROACHING STORM WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER PLAYER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. SW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
TUE MID-MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN. AFTER ABOUT 21Z IT SHOULD BE WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH SOME LOWER ELEVATION ZONES APPROACHING AND REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES
FROM 21Z TO 04Z TOMORROW EVENING. THE STRONG SW WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST DAYTIME TEMPS ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE SO AM ALSO CALLING FOR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS.

THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND UPLIFT
FROM WARM ADVECTION THAT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THESE WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MOISTURE
BUT STRONGER ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIRGA AND
SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN ADVISED ZONES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE SHEARED SO
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST BY ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING BY THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF
THE BLOCKINESS AND STRONGER ENERGY IN THE HIGH LATITUDES WILL BE
DIRECTED INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS BY A STRONG DIP IN THE
JET STREAM. THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SOME OF THE
FINER DETAILS...THE ENSEMBLES OR MEANS OF THESE MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DOWN AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE WORKED THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD BE TO THE DIVIDE BY LATE
MORNING. A SECONDARY TROUGH/WAVE WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET WILL KEEP SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
DOWNTURN...INSTABILITY AND THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EASTERN TERRAIN. THIS CONVECTION
WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE UNDER THIS RIDGE.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO END UP BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS TREND
REVERSES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGHS WARM SOME 7 TO 12 DEGREES.

A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING UPPER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THIS SET UP. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ARRIVING
LATE FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE ASCENT AND FORCING FROM A ROBUST
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO PUSH
SNOW LEVELS DOWN IN THE UPPER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES
ONSHORE. FOR NOW HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOOKING LIKE THE WAY
TO LEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLD WEAK
-SHRA OR -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH
AFFECTING KASE...KEGE...KRIL OR KTEX.

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING BY 16Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER ALL RIDGES. ISOLD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING
WILL ALSO CAUSE ERRATIC STRONGER GUSTS...WITH ALL AIRPORTS AND
TAFS SITES SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE COMMON OVER EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE GUSTS MY BE AMPLIFIED
BY PASSING SHOWERS OR VIRGA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO HELP PUSH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST
UTAH BY MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE DIVIDE BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212134
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT WINDS. BEFORE SUNRISE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OROGRAPHIC
DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNVALLEY WINDS SHOULD BE ENHANCED FROM THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.

THIS APPROACHING STORM WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER PLAYER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. SW WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
TUE MID-MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN. AFTER ABOUT 21Z IT SHOULD BE WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH SOME LOWER ELEVATION ZONES APPROACHING AND REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES
FROM 21Z TO 04Z TOMORROW EVENING. THE STRONG SW WINDS WILL ALSO
BOOST DAYTIME TEMPS ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE SO AM ALSO CALLING FOR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS.

THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING AND UPLIFT
FROM WARM ADVECTION THAT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THESE WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MOISTURE
BUT STRONGER ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIRGA AND
SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN ADVISED ZONES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE SHEARED SO
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL NEAR
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST BY ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING BY THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF
THE BLOCKINESS AND STRONGER ENERGY IN THE HIGH LATITUDES WILL BE
DIRECTED INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS BY A STRONG DIP IN THE
JET STREAM. THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SOME OF THE
FINER DETAILS...THE ENSEMBLES OR MEANS OF THESE MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DOWN AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE WORKED THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD BE TO THE DIVIDE BY LATE
MORNING. A SECONDARY TROUGH/WAVE WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET WILL KEEP SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
DOWNTURN...INSTABILITY AND THE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EASTERN TERRAIN. THIS CONVECTION
WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE UNDER THIS RIDGE.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO END UP BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS TREND
REVERSES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGHS WARM SOME 7 TO 12 DEGREES.

A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING UPPER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THIS SET UP. MOSITURE AND LIFT WILL BE ARRIVING
LATE FRIDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE ASCENT AND FORCING FROM A ROBUST
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO PUSH SNOW
LEVELS DOWN IN THE UPPER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DETAILS WILL BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES ONSHORE. FOR
NOW HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE LOOKING LIKE THE WAY TO LEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLD WEAK -SHRA OR -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER
RIDGES WILL DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH AFFECTING KASE...KEGE...KRIL OR
KTEX UNTIL THEN.

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL APPROACH TUE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AFTER ABOUT 16Z AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG INTO
LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER ALL RIDGES. ISOLD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING
WILL ALSO CAUSE ERRATIC STRONGER GUSTS...WITH ALL AIRPORTS AND
TAFS SITES SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM
GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE COMMON OVER EASTERN UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE GUSTS MY BE AMPLIFIED
BY PASSING SHOWERS OR VIRGA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO HELP PUSH HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHEAST
UTAH BY MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE DIVIDE BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER PASSING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211638
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST AREA BENEATH RIDGE AXIS TODAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVES LOTS OF SUN WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A MILD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERN VALLEY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO CENTRAL NV WITH 700MB WINDS
INCREASING TO SW40KTS IN NE UT-NW CO. CONVECTIVE STORMS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREATEN TO ADD TO THIS GUST POTENTIAL...BUT
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST PIECE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO WYOMING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR WESTERN
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. BLOWING DUST EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SOMEWHAT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BAND. WITH 700MB TEMPS
LOWERING TO -6C ACROSS THE NORTH...SNOW LEVELS LOWER ONTO THE NW
COLORADO PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS WEST WINDS ALOFT BRISK AT
AROUND 25KTS AT 700MB THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM
7KFT/9.5KFT NORTH/SOUTH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DROP 15 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS.

FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND OCCURS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION FORMING OVER SRN UTAH BEFORE
REACHING SW COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS SNOW
BACK TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT SHOWS A PROMINENT VORT
CENTER SWEEPING ACROSS SW COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING. EITHER
SOLUTION DEPICTS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO THE
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUE MORNING. ISOLD WEAK -SHRA OR -TSRA WILL
FORM OVER HIGHER RIDGES UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET...02Z. THERE IS ABOUT A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL OR KTEX.

TUE MORNING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING CAUSING AREA OF
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE NEAR RIDGES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST AREA BENEATH RIDGE AXIS TODAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVES LOTS OF SUN WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A MILD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERN VALLEY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO CENTRAL NV WITH 700MB WINDS
INCREASING TO SW40KTS IN NE UT-NW CO. CONVECTIVE STORMS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREATEN TO ADD TO THIS GUST POTENTIAL...BUT
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST PIECE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO WYOMING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR WESTERN
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. BLOWING DUST EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SOMEWHAT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BAND. WITH 700MB TEMPS
LOWERING TO -6C ACROSS THE NORTH...SNOW LEVELS LOWER ONTO THE NW
COLORADO PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS WEST WINDS ALOFT BRISK AT
AROUND 25KTS AT 700MB THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM
7KFT/9.5KFT NORTH/SOUTH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DROP 15 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS.

FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND OCCURS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION FORMING OVER SRN UTAH BEFORE
REACHING SW COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS SNOW
BACK TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT SHOWS A PROMINENT VORT
CENTER SWEEPING ACROSS SW COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING. EITHER
SOLUTION DEPICTS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BETWEEN 18Z-
02Z TODAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED BUT A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE IMPACTING A MOUNTAIN TAF SITE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST AREA BENEATH RIDGE AXIS TODAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVES LOTS OF SUN WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A MILD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERN VALLEY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO CENTRAL NV WITH 700MB WINDS
INCREASING TO SW40KTS IN NE UT-NW CO. CONVECTIVE STORMS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREATEN TO ADD TO THIS GUST POTENTIAL...BUT
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST PIECE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO WYOMING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR WESTERN
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. BLOWING DUST EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SOMEWHAT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BAND. WITH 700MB TEMPS
LOWERING TO -6C ACROSS THE NORTH...SNOW LEVELS LOWER ONTO THE NW
COLORADO PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS WEST WINDS ALOFT BRISK AT
AROUND 25KTS AT 700MB THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM
7KFT/9.5KFT NORTH/SOUTH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DROP 15 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS.

FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND OCCURS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION FORMING OVER SRN UTAH BEFORE
REACHING SW COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS SNOW
BACK TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT SHOWS A PROMINENT VORT
CENTER SWEEPING ACROSS SW COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING. EITHER
SOLUTION DEPICTS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS
IN WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

GJT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
THIS MORNING INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE
A SLOW RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE A GOOD FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THE SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE GUSTS. THEREFORE GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACROSS FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
TRAJECTORY RIGHT FOR BLOWING DUST AND DUST ON SNOW. WHILE THE
SURFACE LAYER GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HUMIDITY VALUES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ON WED. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AROUND
6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.

AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE CALM IN-BETWEEN DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND
UNDERWAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THEN
WITH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE ARE SAT AND SUN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS
IN WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. ALSO
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SPRING GREEN UP...FUELS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...ARE
NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE WILL NOT HOIST ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION IS ADVISED.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DUE TO THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER FORECASTS.

ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
436 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

GJT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
THIS MORNING INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE
A SLOW RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE A GOOD FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THE SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE GUSTS. THEREFORE GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACROSS FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
TRAJECTORY RIGHT FOR BLOWING DUST AND DUST ON SNOW. WHILE THE
SURFACE LAYER GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HUMIDITY VALUES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ON WED. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AROUND
6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.

AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE CALM IN-BETWEEN DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND
UNDERWAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THEN
WITH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE ARE SAT AND SUN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 10,000
FT MSL WILL CONTINUE 02Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS...WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES. AFTER ABOUT 02Z
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. ALSO
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SPRING GREEN UP...FUELS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...ARE
NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE WILL NOT HOIST ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION IS ADVISED.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DUE TO THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER FORECASTS.

ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202134
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

GJT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
THIS MORNING INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE
A SLOW RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE A GOOD FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THE SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE GUSTS. THEREFORE GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACROSS FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
TRAJECTORY RIGHT FOR BLOWING DUST AND DUST ON SNOW. WHILE THE
SURFACE LAYER GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HUMIDITY VALUES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ON WED. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AROUND
6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.

AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE CALM IN-BETWEEN DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND
UNDERWAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THEN
WITH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE ARE SAT AND SUN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 02Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. ALSO
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SPRING GREEN UP...FUELS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...ARE
NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE WILL NOT HOIST ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION IS ADVISED.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DUE TO THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER FORECASTS.

ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...MPM
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 201643
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z KGJT RAOB SHOWED OVER HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER REMAINING IN THE
SOUNDING...KEEPING THINGS JUICY AS THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. UNDERESTIMATED THE SURGE OF MOISTURE YESTERDAY AS EVEN WEAK
LIFT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. QG PROGS
SHOW LARGE SCALE LIFT IS AGAIN BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TODAY WITH
JUST A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
BRUSH US TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THINK THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE THE WEAK LIFT. FEEL THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY HAVE
HAVE THE EDGE AT COVERAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUTTING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
PLACE TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE NORMAL AND START A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AS WARMER AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
COULD POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MILD
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD PUSH UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WIND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORMS
AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT THAT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF ERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO COULD
BE PUSHING 45 TO 50 MPH. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERGOES
DYNAMICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENERATING CLOUD COVER
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN COLORADO (OR VIRGA IN THE DRIER
SUB CLOUD LAYER). MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (86 AT GRAND JUNCTION)...MOST LIKELY TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THAT 700 MB TEMPS DO NOT REACH
10C OR HIGHER.

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION STAYS WELL NORTH OF COLORADO AND TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. THE AIR MASS DOES GET COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ELKHEADS AND THE PARK RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
MOUNTAIN PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW POTENTIAL DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED
PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INLAND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS
AMPLIFICATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING IN PIECES. NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 02Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 201125
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z KGJT RAOB SHOWED OVER HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER REMAINING IN THE
SOUNDING...KEEPING THINGS JUICY AS THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. UNDERESTIMATED THE SURGE OF MOISTURE YESTERDAY AS EVEN WEAK
LIFT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. QG PROGS
SHOW LARGE SCALE LIFT IS AGAIN BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TODAY WITH
JUST A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
BRUSH US TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THINK THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE THE WEAK LIFT. FEEL THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY HAVE
HAVE THE EDGE AT COVERAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUTTING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
PLACE TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE NORMAL AND START A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AS WARMER AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAHIC CIRCULATIONS
COULD POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MILD
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD PUSH UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WIND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORMS
AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT THAT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF ERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO COULD
BE PUSHING 45 TO 50 MPH. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERGOES
DYNAMICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENERATING CLOUD COVER
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN COLORADO (OR VIRGA IN THE DRIER
SUB CLOUD LAYER). MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (86 AT GRAND JUNCTION)...MOST LIKELY TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THAT 700 MB TEMPS DO NOT REACH
10C OR HIGHER.

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION STAYS WELL NORTH OF COLORADO AND TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. THE AIR MASS DOES GET COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ELKHEADS AND THE PARK RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
MOUNTAIN PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW POTENTIAL DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED
PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INLAND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS
AMPLIFICATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING IN PIECES. NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE ARE LOCAL CIGS BKN035 IN
THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK
UP BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...BUT GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED
-TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-02Z. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING A MOUNTAIN TAF SITE IS 30 PERCENT.

CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 201019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z KGJT RAOB SHOWED OVER HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER REMAINING IN THE
SOUNDING...KEEPING THINGS JUICY AS THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. UNDERESTIMATED THE SURGE OF MOISTURE YESTERDAY AS EVEN WEAK
LIFT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. QG PROGS
SHOW LARGE SCALE LIFT IS AGAIN BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TODAY WITH
JUST A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
BRUSH US TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THINK THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE THE WEAK LIFT. FEEL THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY HAVE
HAVE THE EDGE AT COVERAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUTTING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
PLACE TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE NORMAL AND START A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AS WARMER AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAHIC CIRCULATIONS
COULD POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MILD
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD PUSH UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WIND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORMS
AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT THAT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF ERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO COULD
BE PUSHING 45 TO 50 MPH. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERGOES
DYNAMICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENERATING CLOUD COVER
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN COLORADO (OR VIRGA IN THE DRIER
SUB CLOUD LAYER). MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (86 AT GRAND JUNCTION)...MOST LIKELY TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THAT 700 MB TEMPS DO NOT REACH
10C OR HIGHER.

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION STAYS WELL NORTH OF COLORADO AND TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. THE AIR MASS DOES GET COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ELKHEADS AND THE PARK RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
MOUNTAIN PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW POTENTIAL DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED
PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INLAND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS
AMPLIFICATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING IN PIECES. NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS REFOCUSING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KGJX RADAR SHOWING A MUCH QUIETER SCENE THAN PRIOR TO
SUNSET. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 ALONG THE SPINE OF THE DIVIDE AND EASTWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POP AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN. A STRAY SHOWER
INTO THE VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LONG
BUT MAY TEMPORARILY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT





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