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000
FXUS65 KGJT 312345
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONVECTION FIRING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. A LOOK
OUTSIDE AND ON WEB CAMS SHOW THE BULK OF THE RETURNS ARE VIRGA EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE DOUBLED OUR PWAT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AGAIN SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD BUT INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH STRONG HEATING IN PLACE TO POP
THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IS
SHOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PACIFIC
ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE WEST AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS WARM RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ALONG WITH WEAK QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE LEAD ENERGY. HAVE VERY
LITTLE FAITH THE QPF MODELS ARE PRODUCING BEFORE SUNRISE WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT RATHER EXPECT ACCAS ON TOP OF THE STRONG EML. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE LEAKING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO HANG ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAUS BY MID DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA TOMORROW DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE...BUT PROBABLY
FELT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE DOING
GOOD LATELY AND DID LEAN THIS WAY FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FAVORED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
SEVERELY LACKING AND POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AGAIN EXPECT
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MAIN WAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CLOSED AT H7 OVER EASTERN UTAH BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY
THE LATE MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SIGNIFIES THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE HIGH WINDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS WILL PERSIST AT AREA AIRPORTS AS WELL...WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS ALSO DIMINISHING BY 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 03Z THURSDAY. TERMINAL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40KTS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. KASE...KTEX AND KEGE WILL SEE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING...WITH LOWER VALLEYS SITES AROUND 10 PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS FUELS HAVE BEGUN TO
DRY UP WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. POCKET
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS...THEN A LONGER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ207-290.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ207-290.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 312345
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONVECTION FIRING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. A LOOK
OUTSIDE AND ON WEB CAMS SHOW THE BULK OF THE RETURNS ARE VIRGA EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE DOUBLED OUR PWAT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AGAIN SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD BUT INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH STRONG HEATING IN PLACE TO POP
THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IS
SHOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PACIFIC
ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE WEST AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS WARM RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ALONG WITH WEAK QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE LEAD ENERGY. HAVE VERY
LITTLE FAITH THE QPF MODELS ARE PRODUCING BEFORE SUNRISE WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT RATHER EXPECT ACCAS ON TOP OF THE STRONG EML. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE LEAKING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO HANG ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAUS BY MID DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA TOMORROW DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE...BUT PROBABLY
FELT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE DOING
GOOD LATELY AND DID LEAN THIS WAY FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FAVORED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
SEVERELY LACKING AND POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AGAIN EXPECT
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MAIN WAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CLOSED AT H7 OVER EASTERN UTAH BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY
THE LATE MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SIGNIFIES THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE HIGH WINDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS WILL PERSIST AT AREA AIRPORTS AS WELL...WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS ALSO DIMINISHING BY 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 03Z THURSDAY. TERMINAL SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40KTS MAY
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. KASE...KTEX AND KEGE WILL SEE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING...WITH LOWER VALLEYS SITES AROUND 10 PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS FUELS HAVE BEGUN TO
DRY UP WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. POCKET
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS...THEN A LONGER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ207-290.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ207-290.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONVECTION FIRING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. A LOOK
OUTSIDE AND ON WEB CAMS SHOW THE BULK OF THE RETURNS ARE VIRGA EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE DOUBLED OUR PWAT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AGAIN SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD BUT INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH STRONG HEATING IN PLACE TO POP
THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IS
SHOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PACIFIC
ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE WEST AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS WARM RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ALONG WITH WEAK QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE LEAD ENERGY. HAVE VERY
LITTLE FAITH THE QPF MODELS ARE PRODUCING BEFORE SUNRISE WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT RATHER EXPECT ACCAS ON TOP OF THE STRONG EML. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE LEAKING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO HANG ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAUS BY MID DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA TOMORROW DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE...BUT PROBABLY
FELT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE DOING
GOOD LATELY AND DID LEAN THIS WAY FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FAVORED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
SEVERELY LACKING AND POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AGAIN EXPECT
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MAIN WAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CLOSED AT H7 OVER EASTERN UTAH BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY
THE LATE MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SIGNIFIES THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE HIGH WINDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS
INSTABILITY AND HEATING INCREASE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
CLOUDS SUGGEST MORE WIND THAN RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND.
VALLEY BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO GUST NEAR 20KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COULD BE INFLATED BY PASSING SHOWERS
OR VIRGA IN THE MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES BUT LUCKILY THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS ESPECIALLY IN THE
ASPEN VALLEY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS FUELS HAVE BEGUN TO
DRY UP WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. POCKET
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS...THEN A LONGER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ207-290.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ207-290.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 312157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONVECTION FIRING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. A LOOK
OUTSIDE AND ON WEB CAMS SHOW THE BULK OF THE RETURNS ARE VIRGA EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE DOUBLED OUR PWAT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AGAIN SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD BUT INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH STRONG HEATING IN PLACE TO POP
THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IS
SHOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PACIFIC
ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE WEST AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS WARM RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ALONG WITH WEAK QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE LEAD ENERGY. HAVE VERY
LITTLE FAITH THE QPF MODELS ARE PRODUCING BEFORE SUNRISE WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT RATHER EXPECT ACCAS ON TOP OF THE STRONG EML. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE LEAKING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO HANG ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAUS BY MID DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA TOMORROW DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE...BUT PROBABLY
FELT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE DOING
GOOD LATELY AND DID LEAN THIS WAY FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FAVORED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
SEVERELY LACKING AND POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AGAIN EXPECT
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MAIN WAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CLOSED AT H7 OVER EASTERN UTAH BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY
THE LATE MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SIGNIFIES THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE HIGH WINDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS
INSTABILITY AND HEATING INCREASE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
CLOUDS SUGGEST MORE WIND THAN RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND.
VALLEY BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO GUST NEAR 20KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COULD BE INFLATED BY PASSING SHOWERS
OR VIRGA IN THE MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES BUT LUCKILY THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS ESPECIALLY IN THE
ASPEN VALLEY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS FUELS HAVE BEGUN TO
DRY UP WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. POCKET
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS...THEN A LONGER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ207-290.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ207-290.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAT YESTERDAY...AND
WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY PLANNED AG OR DITCH
BURNS. GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SW UT ACROSS NE AZ TODAY MAY KICK OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS AGAINST MUCH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THOUGH...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER JET
CUTS ACROSS SRN UT TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NE UT
AROUND 12Z WED MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST OR WEST-
CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY. UPWARD FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET OVERTOP THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN CO MTNS WED
AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JUANS.
MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
NARROW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE PACNW
TROUGH PER SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING DROPPING TEMPS AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE
AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES AS DOES CAPE SO DO EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO RUMBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SAME OLE STORY
THOUGH WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY WORK WITH SO
PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM STORMS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT AGAIN...LOW
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMTS. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON SOME MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE FRONT RANGE ALLOWING
BETTER LIFT AND MORE PRECIP THERE. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...WINDS WILL
PICK UP...MAINLY FOR SRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS A STRONG JET MOVES
OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUANS. FREEZING TEMPS A
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WITH MOST
ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST...THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AS DISTURBANCES BRING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER THE PACNW WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS START
WARMING UP. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH
TROUGH AFFECTING PACNW AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP DOWN THE PAC COAST
OR AFFECT GREAT BASIN. BLENDED SOLN OF SCHC POPS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN N OF I-70 APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS
INSTABILITY AND HEATING INCREASE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
CLOUDS SUGGEST MORE WIND THAN RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND.
VALLEY BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO GUST NEAR 20KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COULD BE INFLATED BY PASSING SHOWERS
OR VIRGA IN THE MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES BUT LUCKILY THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS ESPECIALLY IN THE
ASPEN VALLEY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAT YESTERDAY...AND
WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY PLANNED AG OR DITCH
BURNS. GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SW UT ACROSS NE AZ TODAY MAY KICK OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS AGAINST MUCH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THOUGH...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER JET
CUTS ACROSS SRN UT TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NE UT
AROUND 12Z WED MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST OR WEST-
CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY. UPWARD FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET OVERTOP THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN CO MTNS WED
AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JUANS.
MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
NARROW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE PACNW
TROUGH PER SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING DROPPING TEMPS AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE
AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES AS DOES CAPE SO DO EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO RUMBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SAME OLE STORY
THOUGH WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY WORK WITH SO
PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM STORMS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT AGAIN...LOW
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMTS. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON SOME MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE FRONT RANGE ALLOWING
BETTER LIFT AND MORE PRECIP THERE. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...WINDS WILL
PICK UP...MAINLY FOR SRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS A STRONG JET MOVES
OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUANS. FREEZING TEMPS A
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WITH MOST
ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST...THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AS DISTURBANCES BRING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER THE PACNW WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS START
WARMING UP. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH
TROUGH AFFECTING PACNW AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP DOWN THE PAC COAST
OR AFFECT GREAT BASIN. BLENDED SOLN OF SCHC POPS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN N OF I-70 APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS
INSTABILITY AND HEATING INCREASE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
CLOUDS SUGGEST MORE WIND THAN RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND.
VALLEY BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO GUST NEAR 20KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COULD BE INFLATED BY PASSING SHOWERS
OR VIRGA IN THE MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES BUT LUCKILY THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS ESPECIALLY IN THE
ASPEN VALLEY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 311656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAT YESTERDAY...AND
WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY PLANNED AG OR DITCH
BURNS. GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SW UT ACROSS NE AZ TODAY MAY KICK OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS AGAINST MUCH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THOUGH...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER JET
CUTS ACROSS SRN UT TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NE UT
AROUND 12Z WED MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST OR WEST-
CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY. UPWARD FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET OVERTOP THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN CO MTNS WED
AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JUANS.
MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
NARROW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE PACNW
TROUGH PER SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING DROPPING TEMPS AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE
AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES AS DOES CAPE SO DO EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO RUMBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SAME OLE STORY
THOUGH WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY WORK WITH SO
PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM STORMS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT AGAIN...LOW
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMTS. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON SOME MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE FRONT RANGE ALLOWING
BETTER LIFT AND MORE PRECIP THERE. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...WINDS WILL
PICK UP...MAINLY FOR SRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS A STRONG JET MOVES
OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUANS. FREEZING TEMPS A
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WITH MOST
ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST...THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AS DISTURBANCES BRING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER THE PACNW WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS START
WARMING UP. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH
TROUGH AFFECTING PACNW AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP DOWN THE PAC COAST
OR AFFECT GREAT BASIN. BLENDED SOLN OF SCHC POPS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN N OF I-70 APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS
INSTABILITY AND HEATING INCREASE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
CLOUDS SUGGEST MORE WIND THAN RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND.
VALLEY BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO GUST NEAR 20KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COULD BE INFLATED BY PASSING SHOWERS
OR VIRGA IN THE MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES BUT LUCKILY THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS ESPECIALLY IN THE
ASPEN VALLEY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAT YESTERDAY...AND
WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY PLANNED AG OR DITCH
BURNS. GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SW UT ACROSS NE AZ TODAY MAY KICK OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS AGAINST MUCH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THOUGH...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER JET
CUTS ACROSS SRN UT TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NE UT
AROUND 12Z WED MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST OR WEST-
CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY. UPWARD FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET OVERTOP THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN CO MTNS WED
AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JUANS.
MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
NARROW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE PACNW
TROUGH PER SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING DROPPING TEMPS AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE
AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES AS DOES CAPE SO DO EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO RUMBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SAME OLE STORY
THOUGH WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY WORK WITH SO
PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM STORMS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT AGAIN...LOW
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMTS. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON SOME MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE FRONT RANGE ALLOWING
BETTER LIFT AND MORE PRECIP THERE. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...WINDS WILL
PICK UP...MAINLY FOR SRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS A STRONG JET MOVES
OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUANS. FREEZING TEMPS A
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WITH MOST
ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST...THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AS DISTURBANCES BRING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER THE PACNW WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS START
WARMING UP. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH
TROUGH AFFECTING PACNW AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP DOWN THE PAC COAST
OR AFFECT GREAT BASIN. BLENDED SOLN OF SCHC POPS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN N OF I-70 APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS
INSTABILITY AND HEATING INCREASE. VERY DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THESE
CLOUDS SUGGEST MORE WIND THAN RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND.
VALLEY BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO GUST NEAR 20KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTS COULD BE INFLATED BY PASSING SHOWERS
OR VIRGA IN THE MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES BUT LUCKILY THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS ESPECIALLY IN THE
ASPEN VALLEY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310859
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
259 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAT YESTERDAY...AND
WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY PLANNED AG OR DITCH
BURNS. GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SW UT ACROSS NE AZ TODAY MAY KICK OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS AGAINST MUCH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THOUGH...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER JET
CUTS ACROSS SRN UT TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NE UT
AROUND 12Z WED MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST OR WEST-
CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY. UPWARD FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET OVERTOP THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN CO MTNS WED
AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JUANS.
MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
NARROW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE PACNW
TROUGH PER SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING DROPPING TEMPS AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE
AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES AS DOES CAPE SO DO EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO RUMBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SAME OLE STORY
THOUGH WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY WORK WITH SO
PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM STORMS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT AGAIN...LOW
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMTS. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON SOME MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE FRONT RANGE ALLOWING
BETTER LIFT AND MORE PRECIP THERE. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...WINDS WILL
PICK UP...MAINLY FOR SRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS A STRONG JET MOVES
OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUANS. FREEZING TEMPS A
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WITH MOST
ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST...THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AS DISTURBANCES BRING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER THE PACNW WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS START
WARMING UP. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH
TROUGH AFFECTING PACNW AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP DOWN THE PAC COAST
OR AFFECT GREAT BASIN. BLENDED SOLN OF SCHC POPS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN N OF I-70 APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONTINUES FOR TAF SITES THOUGH ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS AFTER 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS
THOUGH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REACH 35 TO
40 MPH. SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310859
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
259 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAT YESTERDAY...AND
WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY PLANNED AG OR DITCH
BURNS. GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM SW UT ACROSS NE AZ TODAY MAY KICK OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS AGAINST MUCH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THOUGH...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN ROCKIES PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER JET
CUTS ACROSS SRN UT TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NE UT
AROUND 12Z WED MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST OR WEST-
CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY. UPWARD FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET OVERTOP THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN CO MTNS WED
AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JUANS.
MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING THOUGH...AS MODELS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
NARROW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY FEEDING INTO THE PACNW
TROUGH PER SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING DROPPING TEMPS AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO THE
AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES AS DOES CAPE SO DO EXPECT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO RUMBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SAME OLE STORY
THOUGH WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY WORK WITH SO
PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM STORMS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THIS TROUGH BUT AGAIN...LOW
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMTS. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON SOME MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE FRONT RANGE ALLOWING
BETTER LIFT AND MORE PRECIP THERE. ASIDE FROM PRECIP...WINDS WILL
PICK UP...MAINLY FOR SRN HALF OF THE CWA...AS A STRONG JET MOVES
OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAN JUANS. FREEZING TEMPS A
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY BUT MORE SO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WITH MOST
ENERGY OFF TO THE WEST...THESE WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AS DISTURBANCES BRING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER THE PACNW WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS START
WARMING UP. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME DEALING WITH
TROUGH AFFECTING PACNW AND WHETHER IT WILL DROP DOWN THE PAC COAST
OR AFFECT GREAT BASIN. BLENDED SOLN OF SCHC POPS FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN N OF I-70 APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONTINUES FOR TAF SITES THOUGH ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS AFTER 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS
THOUGH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REACH 35 TO
40 MPH. SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 310445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
NE UT AFTER 06Z WED. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSPIATE
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z WED. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASED TURBULENCE
AND ENHANCING OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 310445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
NE UT AFTER 06Z WED. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSPIATE
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z WED. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASED TURBULENCE
AND ENHANCING OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
NE UT AFTER 06Z WED. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSPIATE
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z WED. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASED TURBULENCE
AND ENHANCING OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUE EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
NE UT AFTER 06Z WED. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSPIATE
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z WED. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASED TURBULENCE
AND ENHANCING OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302246
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WHICH COULD IMPACT AIRPORTS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
03Z. SHOWERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN AFTER 18Z/TUE. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MODERATE TURBULENCE AND ENHANCING OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302246
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL GENERATE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WHICH COULD IMPACT AIRPORTS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
03Z. SHOWERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN AFTER 18Z/TUE. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MODERATE TURBULENCE AND ENHANCING OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY NEAR VIRGA. THE
LIMITED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF
AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY NEAR VIRGA. THE
LIMITED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF
AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301651
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY NEAR VIRGA. THE
LIMITED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF
AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE TO ABOUT 35 MPH. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
951 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BASICALLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO REVEALED AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN NV LATE THIS
EVENING AND PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO SRN UT. 00Z NAM
TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE INTO NE AZ BY MONDAY EVENING. DON`T THINK
IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AID
IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SRN MTNS ON MONDAY. THIS IS
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AVIATION SECTION ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z MONDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF AT
THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC WINDS
AFTER 20Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292242
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z WHICH ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO OR KTEX.
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292242
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z WHICH ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO OR KTEX.
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015


THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015


THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015


THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291729 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291533 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291533 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SE UT AND SRN CO
THIS AFTN. A WEATHER SPOTTER IN CORTEZ REPORTED ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS THIS MORNING...AN INDICATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FORCING
IS WEAK...BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR WEAK CAPE AND STRONG
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE ABAJOS AND SAN JUAN
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SLIGHTLY AND INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A GENEARLLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SUNNY AND NEAR RECORD WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290936
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290936
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE WEAK BAROCLINIC BAND...BEST SEEN IN 500-300 DEFORMATION...WAS
STRETCHED BETWEEN THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS EARLY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS EARLY MORNING WAS IN THE ELK MTNS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VAIL PASS SOUTH TO MONARCH PASS. SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROVE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT FEET BUT CAMERAS SHOWED
ONLY WET ROADS OVER VAIL PASS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EARLY MORNING UNDER THIS DEFORMATION/FRONTAL BAND. IT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SAGS INTO THE SAN JUANS TODAY BUT PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 0.4 INCH AND 700MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AT 4 G/KG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE ALL RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS
WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 8C. INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR NORTH OF I-70 WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE GREATER REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON BUILDUPS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THESE WILL PRODUCE MORE VIRGA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN
SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEING FED NORTH OVER AZ AND NM AS AIR ROTATES AROUND
AN OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. THE MAIN LONGWAVE ANCHORS OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE HUDSON`S BAY LOW...THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACNW COAST AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE GFS...MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TWO LONGWAVE
TROUGHS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO SLIDE EAST. THUS THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED
AND SLIDES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN TUE...AND
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS SENDS
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DOWN FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES WED AND THU. THE ECMWF
HAS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS TROUGH AND IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER
WITH IT...WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

THE EC REBOUNDS THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RUNNING ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER. THE GFS BRINGS A
REINFORCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH
DROPS TEMPS EVEN MORE. IF THE GFS COMES TRUE FRUIT TREES AND
TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE AT RISK OF A FREEZE EARLY THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNINGS...WITH THE THU NGT/FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS BEING THE
COLDEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 03Z THIS EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BUILDUPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290508
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE FRONT HAD SAGGED SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AT 11PM AND THE
BEST FORCING WAS MOVING EAST OF VAIL PASS. ASPEN AIRPORT RECEIVED
A LIGHT SHOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT VALLEYS WERE MOSTLY DRY.
THIS MILD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING LIGHT
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BE RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS. LIGHTNING IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALSO IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
...6PM-10PM MDT. ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

ON SUNDAY MODELS HINT THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED
FRONT...AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTH OF THE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DUE TO THE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NOAM THAT WILL BE
FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES...THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION
INCLUDING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF
HUDSON BAY. INITIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK WE WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS DOMINANT RIDGE IS FLATTENED. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK THE TWO FEEDS APPEAR TO PHASE AND THIS WILL PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES MAY END UP ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. PWATS LOOKS TO STALL AT AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY FALL OFF AS THE COOLER AIR DROPS IN. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM SO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
COME WEDNESDAY AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS WYOMING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR SOURCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES COME FRIDAY AND END
UP BELOW NORMAL. A QUICK REBOUND IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM
KASE EASTWARD WITH MTN TOPS POSSIBLY OBSCURED AT TIMES. AFTER 09Z
VFR RETURNS TO ALL SITES

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DESCRIBED TAF SITES AND OTHER AREA
AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE FLIGHT CATEGORIES REDUCED BELOW
VISUAL RULES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AND LOWERED CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290508
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE FRONT HAD SAGGED SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AT 11PM AND THE
BEST FORCING WAS MOVING EAST OF VAIL PASS. ASPEN AIRPORT RECEIVED
A LIGHT SHOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT VALLEYS WERE MOSTLY DRY.
THIS MILD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING LIGHT
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BE RAIN AT ALL ELEVATIONS. LIGHTNING IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NORTH THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BUT GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALSO IN SPITE OF THE WEAK FORCING AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THEN QUICKLY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
...6PM-10PM MDT. ANY SHOWERS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

ON SUNDAY MODELS HINT THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED
FRONT...AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTH OF THE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD DUE TO THE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATIONS ACROSS NOAM THAT WILL BE
FEEDING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES...THE NORTH PACIFIC REGION
INCLUDING THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF
HUDSON BAY. INITIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK WE WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY THE PACIFIC FEED OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS THIS DOMINANT RIDGE IS FLATTENED. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK THE TWO FEEDS APPEAR TO PHASE AND THIS WILL PUSH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES MAY END UP ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND PUSHES SOME COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. PWATS LOOKS TO STALL AT AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY FALL OFF AS THE COOLER AIR DROPS IN. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM SO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
COME WEDNESDAY AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS WYOMING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A COLD AIR SOURCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES COME FRIDAY AND END
UP BELOW NORMAL. A QUICK REBOUND IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AS
RIDGING REBUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM
KASE EASTWARD WITH MTN TOPS POSSIBLY OBSCURED AT TIMES. AFTER 09Z
VFR RETURNS TO ALL SITES

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH LIKELY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DESCRIBED TAF SITES AND OTHER AREA
AIRPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE FLIGHT CATEGORIES REDUCED BELOW
VISUAL RULES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AND LOWERED CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




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