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000
FXUS65 KGJT 292245
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
445 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Split troughy pattern over the Rockies will progress eastward
over the next couple of days. The southern closed low trekking
across SoCal today will allow for some added instability late
Monday afternoon and through the night with pieces of energy
pushing in to the northern Four Corners ahead of the unstable air
mass. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion overall
the models have downscaled activity for Monday afternoon, but
with the vort kickers and ever so slightly increased bulk shear I
would expect more activity than today. High and low temperatures
will remain around normal over the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The closed low will stall over Arizona, propagate southward,
and stay south of our forecast area through Wednesday before it
weakens. During this time frame, afternoon convection should stay
anchored over the higher terrain for the most part. In the
meantime, 500 mb heights strengthen high pressure over the
western US and qill slowly shift its axis over eastern Utah and
western Colorado by next weekend. Summer-like weather will truly
show up late this week and next weekend as temperatures soar into
the 90s across the lower valleys and into the upper 60s in the
high mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 439 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
through about 03z this evening. Storms will be focused most
strongly over the mountains of western CO and northeast Utah. The
strongest cells will be capable producing outflow winds to 40 MPH
and will briefly obscure mountains. Brief MVFR vsbys and ils cigs
are possible at kase...kege...kril...ktex and kvel. After 03z
storms will dissipate and winds will transition to light and
terrain driven. Similar shower and thunderstorms development is
expected after 17Z Monday.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291636
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1036 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

A pair of troughs organizing over the western NOAM in British
Columbia and just off the central California coast. Shortwave
ridging extends across the southern Rockies and 4 Corners region
where it will persist through the day. The stronger northern
stream wave will begin to swing westward and dig into the northern
Rockies states through the short term period...which will help
drag the southern system off the coast and into the Desert
Southwest. This split pattern is not favorable for strong ascent
to move over our CWA and this will keep afternoon showers and
thunderstorms isolated to scattered the next few days. Some weak
ascent is moving across our southern tier of zones this morning as
the sub-trop jet is lifting across the Baja into the Southern
Plains. Feel forecast is in good shape with no major changes at
this time. Temperatures should warm very close to normal both
today and Monday afternoon. There could be a small uptick in
convection on Monday as the two system briefly phase...but for the
most part models trends have been for a downturn in precipitation
coverage for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The persistent southwest flow will continue to carry modest
moisture into the region through Tuesday. Behind these features, a
ridge of high pressure will develop along the west coast early in
the work week and then move into the Great Basin by midweek. This
high pressure center will continue to strengthen and will remain
to our west through the end of the period. As a result,
temperatures will top out a few degrees above normal late in the
week. Less, but sufficient moisture will remain over the region
for a slight chance of mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 MDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at airports across eastern Utah and
western Colorado through the next 24 hours. However, daytime
warming and residual moisture will combine to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain from 18Z through
03Z this evening. The strongest cells will be capable producing
outflow winds to 35 MPH and will briefly obscure mountains.
Otherwise, winds will be relatively light and terrain driven.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290922
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
322 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

A pair of troughs organizing over the western NOAM in British
Columbia and just off the central California coast. Shortwave
ridging extends across the southern Rockies and 4 Corners region
where it will persist through the day. The stronger northern
stream wave will begin to swing westward and dig into the northern
Rockies states through the short term period...which will help
drag the southern system off the coast and into the Desert
Southwest. This split pattern is not favorable for strong ascent
to move over our CWA and this will keep afternoon showers and
thunderstorms isolated to scattered the next few days. Some weak
ascent is moving across our southern tier of zones this morning as
the sub-trop jet is lifting across the Baja into the Southern
Plains. Feel forecast is in good shape with no major changes at
this time. Temperatures should warm very close to normal both
today and Monday afternoon. There could be a small uptick in
convection on Monday as the two system briefly phase...but for the
most part models trends have been for a downturn in precipitation
coverage for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The persistent southwest flow will continue to carry modest
moisture into the region through Tuesday. Behind these features, a
ridge of high pressure will develop along the west coast early in
the work week and then move into the Great Basin by midweek. This
high pressure center will continue to strengthen and will remain
to our west through the end of the period. As a result,
temperatures will top out a few degrees above normal late in the
week. Less, but sufficient moisture will remain over the region
for a slight chance of mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Visual Flight Rules will dominate the forecast over the next 24
hours at the forecast terminals. Instability from heating of the
day and residual moisture will again lead to isolated and
scattered thunderstorm development over the region...favoring the
higher terrain. Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph will be more of a
threat than heavy rainfall...therefor probabilities are quite low
for VFR conditions to be compromised. ILS break points may be
temporary met by passing showers at the KASE KRIL and KEGE
terminals.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 282358
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
558 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

The sag pond water level at the West Creek landslide has levelled
out after the release earlier in the week. Officials have
determined that flash flooding poses much less of a threat to the
area so the flash flood watch has been allowed to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

A modest amount of moisture will continue to be entrained over
the region as the next low pressure system develops over southern
California through Sunday...then gradually shifts east. Today`s
relatively low grade convection will continue into the evening
before diminishing as the diurnal assist diminishes. Look for a
repeat on Sunday as temperatures approach, but still stay shy, of normal
for late May. Low temps will also see a little warming but will
also stay below normal as we should see good clearing each night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

A northern branch shortwave trough will move over the northern
Rockies on Monday and may result in an uptick in mainly afternoon
convection as it brushes our forecast area. In addition, the
southern California low will approach our area but will remain to
our southwest. The persistent southwest flow will continue to
carry modest moisture into the region through Tuesday. Behind
these features, a ridge of high pressure will develop along the
west coast early in the work week and then move into the Great
Basin by midweek. This high pressure center will continue to
strengthen and will remain to our west through the end of the
period. As a result, temperatures will top out a few degrees above
normal late in the week. Less, but sufficient moisture will remain
over the region for a slight chance of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have formed across portions of the
forecast area but have not posed any threats to TAF sites yet. A
few showers, maybe even a storm, is possible for KASE or KEGE but
confidence not high enough to include in their TAFs. VCSH will
suffice for now and will amend as necessary. Once the sun starts
setting, most convection will start dying down, too. Expect a
similar day tomorrow with showers and storms firing by late
morning or early afternoon.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...None.

UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR





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