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000
FXUS65 KGJT 101106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...AND LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AT
MOST LOCATIONS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THOSE COLD AND
INVERTED VALLEYS AND BASINS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO
INCLUDING THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. THOSE SAME INVERTED VALLEYS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG OR HAZE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN MODIFY A LITTLE...BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS INDICATED THAT QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST. VALLEYS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRAPPED BENEATH
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS CAN EXPECT ONLY MODEST GAINS IN TEMPERATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RECURRENT FOG/HAZE DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS SHOWN TO FLATTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES ONSHORE
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA AND ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IN CONTRAST...IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS TROUGH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND FASTER HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE AREA. SINCE MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH CONSENSUS WILL LEAVE LOW
END POPS OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

THE EC AND GFS WERE SOMEHOW MORE CONSISTENT IN THE LATER PERIODS
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH A SHALLOW RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO BUY
OFF ON THIS SOLUTION SO KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW. MOISTURE PETERS
OUT BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SLIDE BY A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY BUT REBOUND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

STAGNANT AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN AND THE GRAND FLAT OF EAST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS WILL
IMPACT KVEL AND POSSIBLY KCNY THROUGH 16Z. IN ADDITION...ASOS
INDICATED LIFR CIGS OVER KCAG DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THIS APPEARED TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED FOG PRODUCT SO EXPECT
MORNING SUN WILL BURN THE LOW DECK OFF BY 16Z AS WELL.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 101106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...AND LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AT
MOST LOCATIONS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THOSE COLD AND
INVERTED VALLEYS AND BASINS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO
INCLUDING THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. THOSE SAME INVERTED VALLEYS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG OR HAZE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN MODIFY A LITTLE...BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS INDICATED THAT QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST. VALLEYS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRAPPED BENEATH
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS CAN EXPECT ONLY MODEST GAINS IN TEMPERATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RECURRENT FOG/HAZE DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS SHOWN TO FLATTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES ONSHORE
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA AND ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IN CONTRAST...IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS TROUGH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND FASTER HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE AREA. SINCE MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH CONSENSUS WILL LEAVE LOW
END POPS OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

THE EC AND GFS WERE SOMEHOW MORE CONSISTENT IN THE LATER PERIODS
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH A SHALLOW RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO BUY
OFF ON THIS SOLUTION SO KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW. MOISTURE PETERS
OUT BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SLIDE BY A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY BUT REBOUND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

STAGNANT AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN AND THE GRAND FLAT OF EAST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS WILL
IMPACT KVEL AND POSSIBLY KCNY THROUGH 16Z. IN ADDITION...ASOS
INDICATED LIFR CIGS OVER KCAG DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THIS APPEARED TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED FOG PRODUCT SO EXPECT
MORNING SUN WILL BURN THE LOW DECK OFF BY 16Z AS WELL.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 101106
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...AND LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AT
MOST LOCATIONS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THOSE COLD AND
INVERTED VALLEYS AND BASINS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO
INCLUDING THE UPPER GUNNISON BASIN. THOSE SAME INVERTED VALLEYS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG OR HAZE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN MODIFY A LITTLE...BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS INDICATED THAT QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST. VALLEYS WHICH HAVE BEEN TRAPPED BENEATH
PERSISTENT INVERSIONS CAN EXPECT ONLY MODEST GAINS IN TEMPERATURE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RECURRENT FOG/HAZE DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS SHOWN TO FLATTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES ONSHORE
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA AND ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IN CONTRAST...IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS TROUGH IS MUCH SHALLOWER AND FASTER HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE AREA. SINCE MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH CONSENSUS WILL LEAVE LOW
END POPS OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS REACHED.

THE EC AND GFS WERE SOMEHOW MORE CONSISTENT IN THE LATER PERIODS
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH A SHALLOW RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO BUY
OFF ON THIS SOLUTION SO KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW. MOISTURE PETERS
OUT BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SLIDE BY A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY BUT REBOUND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

STAGNANT AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN AND THE GRAND FLAT OF EAST-CENTRAL UTAH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG/HAZE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS WILL
IMPACT KVEL AND POSSIBLY KCNY THROUGH 16Z. IN ADDITION...ASOS
INDICATED LIFR CIGS OVER KCAG DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THIS APPEARED TO
BE LOCALIZED BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED FOG PRODUCT SO EXPECT
MORNING SUN WILL BURN THE LOW DECK OFF BY 16Z AS WELL.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 100444
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z IS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGIONS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BEEFY RIDGE OVERLAYS THE LEFT
COAST. THIS IS LEAVING DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SPINE
OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH RELAXES FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...STRENGTHENING THE INVERSIONS.
SEVERAL AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO MIX...HENCE WARM...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THIS STRONGER INVERSION TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FOG
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT.
VERNAL...CANYONLANDS...EAGLE ARE PRIME SPOT TONIGHT...WHILE THE
GRAND VALLEY...YAMPA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER GUNNY MAY SEE A
BIT MORE PATCHY FOG. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID SPREAD
FOG OUT A BIT MORE IN GRIDS OVERNIGHT. USED LOWS FROM THIS MORNING
AS A BASE BUT MADE SOME TWEAKS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIN FOG AND HAZE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER PLATEAUS AND BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS EACH
MORNING. THESE INVERSIONS MAY HELP PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN VALLEY
BOTTOMS...BUT WILL DEFINITE CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER ABOVE
THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COLDER BENEATH THE INVERSIONS
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FIELDS REMAIN.

THERE HAVE BEEN MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ITS
RIDGELINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO SKIM PAST THE NORTHERN CO BORDER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH IS LATER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. IF THIS
COMES TRUE IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN AREAS
THRU MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

ASIDE FROM KVEL WHICH IS REPORTING 3SM DUE TO FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG
OR HAZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 100444
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z IS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGIONS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BEEFY RIDGE OVERLAYS THE LEFT
COAST. THIS IS LEAVING DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SPINE
OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH RELAXES FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...STRENGTHENING THE INVERSIONS.
SEVERAL AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO MIX...HENCE WARM...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THIS STRONGER INVERSION TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FOG
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT.
VERNAL...CANYONLANDS...EAGLE ARE PRIME SPOT TONIGHT...WHILE THE
GRAND VALLEY...YAMPA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER GUNNY MAY SEE A
BIT MORE PATCHY FOG. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID SPREAD
FOG OUT A BIT MORE IN GRIDS OVERNIGHT. USED LOWS FROM THIS MORNING
AS A BASE BUT MADE SOME TWEAKS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIN FOG AND HAZE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER PLATEAUS AND BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS EACH
MORNING. THESE INVERSIONS MAY HELP PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN VALLEY
BOTTOMS...BUT WILL DEFINITE CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER ABOVE
THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COLDER BENEATH THE INVERSIONS
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FIELDS REMAIN.

THERE HAVE BEEN MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ITS
RIDGELINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO SKIM PAST THE NORTHERN CO BORDER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH IS LATER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. IF THIS
COMES TRUE IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN AREAS
THRU MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

ASIDE FROM KVEL WHICH IS REPORTING 3SM DUE TO FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG
OR HAZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 100444
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z IS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGIONS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BEEFY RIDGE OVERLAYS THE LEFT
COAST. THIS IS LEAVING DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SPINE
OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH RELAXES FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...STRENGTHENING THE INVERSIONS.
SEVERAL AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO MIX...HENCE WARM...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THIS STRONGER INVERSION TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FOG
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT.
VERNAL...CANYONLANDS...EAGLE ARE PRIME SPOT TONIGHT...WHILE THE
GRAND VALLEY...YAMPA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER GUNNY MAY SEE A
BIT MORE PATCHY FOG. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID SPREAD
FOG OUT A BIT MORE IN GRIDS OVERNIGHT. USED LOWS FROM THIS MORNING
AS A BASE BUT MADE SOME TWEAKS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIN FOG AND HAZE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER PLATEAUS AND BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS EACH
MORNING. THESE INVERSIONS MAY HELP PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN VALLEY
BOTTOMS...BUT WILL DEFINITE CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER ABOVE
THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COLDER BENEATH THE INVERSIONS
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FIELDS REMAIN.

THERE HAVE BEEN MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ITS
RIDGELINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO SKIM PAST THE NORTHERN CO BORDER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH IS LATER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. IF THIS
COMES TRUE IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN AREAS
THRU MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

ASIDE FROM KVEL WHICH IS REPORTING 3SM DUE TO FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG
OR HAZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 092140
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z IS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGIONS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BEEFY RIDGE OVERLAYS THE LEFT
COAST. THIS IS LEAVING DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SPINE
OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH RELAXES FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...STRENGTHENING THE INVERSIONS.
SEVERAL AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO MIX...HENCE WARM...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THIS STRONGER INVERSION TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FOG
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT.
VERNAL...CANYONLANDS...EAGLE ARE PRIME SPOT TONIGHT...WHILE THE
GRAND VALLEY...YAMPA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER GUNNY MAY SEE A
BIT MORE PATCHY FOG. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID SPREAD
FOG OUT A BIT MORE IN GRIDS OVERNIGHT. USED LOWS FROM THIS MORNING
AS A BASE BUT MADE SOME TWEAKS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIN FOG AND HAZE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER PLATEAUS AND BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS EACH
MORNING. THESE INVERSIONS MAY HELP PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN VALLEY
BOTTOMS...BUT WILL DEFINITE CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER ABOVE
THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COLDER BENEATH THE INVERSIONS
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FIELDS REMAIN.

THERE HAVE BEEN MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ITS
RIDGELINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO SKIM PAST THE NORTHERN CO BORDER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH IS LATER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. IF THIS
COMES TRUE IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN AREAS
THRU MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY FOG OR HAZE ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER AND IN THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MVFR VSBYS AT KEGE AND KVEL FROM 08Z TO ABOUT 16Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 091647
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
947 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY THIN BY MIDDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AS THE BASIN REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE.

TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY/S HIGHS AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE ZERO DEG
C. HOWEVER...VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN COMPLEX SO THE TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS WITH THE
DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING/S MINIMUMS. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH VALLEYS TRAPPED UNDER THE
STRONGEST INVERSIONS MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST ENDURES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DRIVE THE RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

THE FASTER AND MORE ENERGETIC ECMWF GENERATES LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
CONTINUES TO WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THIS AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
RUNS AND GENERATES JUST A SKIFF OF SNOW OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK
RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THEREAFTER. NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON
LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROUGH PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY NORTH...ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

LATE MORNING FOG HAS DISRUPTED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KEGE BUT THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH VFR RETURNING BY FORECAST TIME
AT 18Z. FOG/MIST WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE VALLEY AIRPORTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 091055
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND.

PATCHY FOG/HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY THIN BY MIDDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AS THE BASIN REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE.

TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN MONDAY/S HIGHS AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE ZERO DEG
C. HOWEVER...VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN COMPLEX SO THE TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS WITH THE
DAYTIME HIGHS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING/S MINIMUMS. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH VALLEYS TRAPPED UNDER THE
STRONGEST INVERSIONS MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WEST ENDURES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DRIVE THE RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

THE FASTER AND MORE ENERGETIC ECMWF GENERATES LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN
CONTINUES TO WITH PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THIS AREA FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
RUNS AND GENERATES JUST A SKIFF OF SNOW OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK
RANGES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THEREAFTER. NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON
LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROUGH PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY NORTH...ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS...WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AND
IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS. KCNY MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WHERE FOG HAS LOWERED VSBY TO IFR LEVELS AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MIDMORNING. MEANWHILE...STAGNANT AIR TRAPPED
BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN UINTA BASIN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBY IN HAZE THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP IN VALLEY BOTTOMS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
NIGHT WITH HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 090449
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

A DRY BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND TO THE
HIGH EXPOSED TERRAIN. THE VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ERODE IN A MORE
COMPLEX WAY.

THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GJT SHOWED AN EROSION OF THE DEPTH OF
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INCLUDING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTIONS WERE IN PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE/COLORADO RIVER
BASINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MILNER-
HAYDEN...MEEKER...EAGLE. GUNNISON ENJOYED A NICE WARMUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT UP THE EAST RIVER CRESTED BUTTE VILLAGE AND GOTHIC
SHOWED LITTLE DAILY CHANGE.

THIS KIND OF INVERSION COMPLEXITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
BLEND TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A WEAK WAVE DIVES OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HINTS
AT A CLOSED SW LOW THAT COULD BRING A WET AND MILD PERIOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOME LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KVEL AND KCNY BRINGING BRIEF
MVFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 082346
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

A DRY BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND TO THE
HIGH EXPOSED TERRAIN. THE VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ERODE IN A MORE
COMPLEX WAY.

THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GJT SHOWED AN EROSION OF THE DEPTH OF
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INCLUDING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTIONS WERE IN PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE/COLORADO RIVER
BASINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MILNER-
HAYDEN...MEEKER...EAGLE. GUNNISON ENJOYED A NICE WARMUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT UP THE EAST RIVER CRESTED BUTTE VILLAGE AND GOTHIC
SHOWED LITTLE DAILY CHANGE.

THIS KIND OF INVERSION COMPLEXITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
BLEND TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A WEAK WAVE DIVES OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HINTS
AT A CLOSED SW LOW THAT COULD BRING A WET AND MILD PERIOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOME
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KVEL AND KCNY BRINGING
BRIEF MVFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 082346
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

A DRY BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND TO THE
HIGH EXPOSED TERRAIN. THE VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ERODE IN A MORE
COMPLEX WAY.

THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GJT SHOWED AN EROSION OF THE DEPTH OF
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INCLUDING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTIONS WERE IN PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE/COLORADO RIVER
BASINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MILNER-
HAYDEN...MEEKER...EAGLE. GUNNISON ENJOYED A NICE WARMUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT UP THE EAST RIVER CRESTED BUTTE VILLAGE AND GOTHIC
SHOWED LITTLE DAILY CHANGE.

THIS KIND OF INVERSION COMPLEXITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
BLEND TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A WEAK WAVE DIVES OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HINTS
AT A CLOSED SW LOW THAT COULD BRING A WET AND MILD PERIOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOME
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KVEL AND KCNY BRINGING
BRIEF MVFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 082346
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

A DRY BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND TO THE
HIGH EXPOSED TERRAIN. THE VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ERODE IN A MORE
COMPLEX WAY.

THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GJT SHOWED AN EROSION OF THE DEPTH OF
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INCLUDING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTIONS WERE IN PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE/COLORADO RIVER
BASINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MILNER-
HAYDEN...MEEKER...EAGLE. GUNNISON ENJOYED A NICE WARMUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT UP THE EAST RIVER CRESTED BUTTE VILLAGE AND GOTHIC
SHOWED LITTLE DAILY CHANGE.

THIS KIND OF INVERSION COMPLEXITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
BLEND TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A WEAK WAVE DIVES OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HINTS
AT A CLOSED SW LOW THAT COULD BRING A WET AND MILD PERIOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOME
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KVEL AND KCNY BRINGING
BRIEF MVFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 082222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

A DRY BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND TO THE
HIGH EXPOSED TERRAIN. THE VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ERODE IN A MORE
COMPLEX WAY.

THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GJT SHOWED AN EROSION OF THE DEPTH OF
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INCLUDING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTIONS WERE IN PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE/COLORADO RIVER
BASINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MILNER-
HAYDEN...MEEKER...EAGLE. GUNNISON ENJOYED A NICE WARMUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT UP THE EAST RIVER CRESTED BUTTE VILLAGE AND GOTHIC
SHOWED LITTLE DAILY CHANGE.

THIS KIND OF INVERSION COMPLEXITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
BLEND TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A WEAK WAVE DIVES OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HINTS
AT A CLOSED SW LOW THAT COULD BRING A WET AND MILD PERIOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND. PATCHY MORNING
FOG MAY BRING LIMITED MVFR VSBY TO KCNY KVEL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 081638
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
938 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAY PERSIST TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SO WINDS DECREASE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MANY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES THERE. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG NARROW RIVER CORRIDORS...BUT
WILL GENERALLY WILL NOT OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST WILL REMAIN A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY
...WARMING WILL LAG IN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS PERSIST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND WEATHER REMAINS UNEVENTFUL FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...00Z/GFS RUN SPINS OFF A WEAK LOW
BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH THREATENS SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE 06Z/GFS RUN THIS FEATURE IS CONSPICUOUSLY
ABSENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 938 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

ANY CIGS TODAY WILL BE CREATED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AOA 20KFT
AGL. VISBY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CNY AND VEL AREAS. WITH INVERSIONS STAYING IN
PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BUT OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NZ
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 081100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAY PERSIST TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SO WINDS DECREASE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MANY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES THERE. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG NARROW RIVER CORRIDORS...BUT
WILL GENERALLY WILL NOT OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST WILL REMAIN A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY
...WARMING WILL LAG IN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS PERSIST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND WEATHER REMAINS UNEVENTFUL FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...00Z/GFS RUN SPINS OFF A WEAK LOW
BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH THREATENS SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE 06Z/GFS RUN THIS FEATURE IS CONSPICUOUSLY
ABSENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS...WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AND
IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...STAGNANT
AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBY IN HAZE THROUGH
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG TO REDEVELOP IN VALLEY BOTTOMS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 081100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAY PERSIST TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SO WINDS DECREASE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MANY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES THERE. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG NARROW RIVER CORRIDORS...BUT
WILL GENERALLY WILL NOT OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST WILL REMAIN A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY
...WARMING WILL LAG IN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS PERSIST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND WEATHER REMAINS UNEVENTFUL FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...00Z/GFS RUN SPINS OFF A WEAK LOW
BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH THREATENS SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE 06Z/GFS RUN THIS FEATURE IS CONSPICUOUSLY
ABSENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS...WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AND
IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...STAGNANT
AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBY IN HAZE THROUGH
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG TO REDEVELOP IN VALLEY BOTTOMS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 081100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAY PERSIST TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SO WINDS DECREASE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MANY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES THERE. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG NARROW RIVER CORRIDORS...BUT
WILL GENERALLY WILL NOT OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST WILL REMAIN A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY
...WARMING WILL LAG IN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS PERSIST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND WEATHER REMAINS UNEVENTFUL FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...00Z/GFS RUN SPINS OFF A WEAK LOW
BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH THREATENS SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE 06Z/GFS RUN THIS FEATURE IS CONSPICUOUSLY
ABSENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS...WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AND
IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...STAGNANT
AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBY IN HAZE THROUGH
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG TO REDEVELOP IN VALLEY BOTTOMS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 080457
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A BLOCKING WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK
ARE THE WEATHER DRIVERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH MILD
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LAST NIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT
BROUGHT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. THOSE MILD TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VALLEYS AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOPE TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE 24HR CHANGE AND ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT SLACKEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH AS
THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING BRINGS A
COLD NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE SO VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE MINIMIZED TO PERHAPS ONLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATER
COURSES.

STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. VALLEY FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY ALONG RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
WILL BE OVERHEAD BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS A WARMING TREND TO
THE REGION. THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO FLUSH OUT THE VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO USED MUCH MORE PERSISTENCE TO SLOW THE VALLEY
WARMING TREND. SUNDAY A WAVE DIVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT
THREATENS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

SOME LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH KCNY AND KVEL MAYBE SEEING SOME BRIEF MVFR
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. ASIDE FROM THAT...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 080457
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A BLOCKING WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK
ARE THE WEATHER DRIVERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH MILD
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LAST NIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT
BROUGHT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. THOSE MILD TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VALLEYS AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOPE TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE 24HR CHANGE AND ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT SLACKEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH AS
THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING BRINGS A
COLD NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE SO VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE MINIMIZED TO PERHAPS ONLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATER
COURSES.

STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. VALLEY FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY ALONG RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
WILL BE OVERHEAD BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS A WARMING TREND TO
THE REGION. THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO FLUSH OUT THE VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO USED MUCH MORE PERSISTENCE TO SLOW THE VALLEY
WARMING TREND. SUNDAY A WAVE DIVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT
THREATENS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

SOME LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH KCNY AND KVEL MAYBE SEEING SOME BRIEF MVFR
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. ASIDE FROM THAT...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 080457
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A BLOCKING WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK
ARE THE WEATHER DRIVERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH MILD
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LAST NIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT
BROUGHT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. THOSE MILD TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VALLEYS AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOPE TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE 24HR CHANGE AND ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT SLACKEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH AS
THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING BRINGS A
COLD NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE SO VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE MINIMIZED TO PERHAPS ONLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATER
COURSES.

STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. VALLEY FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY ALONG RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
WILL BE OVERHEAD BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS A WARMING TREND TO
THE REGION. THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO FLUSH OUT THE VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO USED MUCH MORE PERSISTENCE TO SLOW THE VALLEY
WARMING TREND. SUNDAY A WAVE DIVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT
THREATENS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

SOME LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH KCNY AND KVEL MAYBE SEEING SOME BRIEF MVFR
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. ASIDE FROM THAT...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 072318
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A BLOCKING WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK
ARE THE WEATHER DRIVERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH MILD
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LAST NIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT
BROUGHT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. THOSE MILD TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VALLEYS AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOPE TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE 24HR CHANGE AND ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT SLACKEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH AS
THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING BRINGS A
COLD NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE SO VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE MINIMIZED TO PERHAPS ONLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATER
COURSES.

STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. VALLEY FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY ALONG RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
WILL BE OVERHEAD BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS A WARMING TREND TO
THE REGION. THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO FLUSH OUT THE VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO USED MUCH MORE PERSISTENCE TO SLOW THE VALLEY
WARMING TREND. SUNDAY A WAVE DIVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT
THREATENS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 409 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 072132
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
232 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A BLOCKING WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK
ARE THE WEATHER DRIVERS THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WITH MILD
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LAST NIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT
BROUGHT A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT. THOSE MILD TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VALLEYS AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOPE TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE 24HR CHANGE AND ARE MOSTLY WARMER THAN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT SLACKEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH AS
THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING BRINGS A
COLD NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE SO VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE MINIMIZED TO PERHAPS ONLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATER
COURSES.

STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. VALLEY FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY ALONG RIVERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
WILL BE OVERHEAD BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS A WARMING TREND TO
THE REGION. THERE APPEARS NO MECHANISM TO FLUSH OUT THE VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO USED MUCH MORE PERSISTENCE TO SLOW THE VALLEY
WARMING TREND. SUNDAY A WAVE DIVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT
THREATENS LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.
EXCEPTION IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LOW STRATUS OR FOG BETWEEN
06Z TO 18Z IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 071731
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
COMING WEEK UNDER A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EXTENT
AND DENSITY OF LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DUE TO VALLEY INVERSIONS
ALSO POSE A CHALLENGE SINCE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES TOO WARM IN THESE AREAS. IN BOTH CASES WILL LEAN
TOWARD PERSISTENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER CONDITIONS IN STAGNANT VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN AREAS
ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL WARM IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WHILE VALLEYS...FOR REASONS JUST DISCUSSED...WILL LAG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INVERTED VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE
SLOWER TO RESPOND TO THE WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE WEAKENS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A PAIR OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS
ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH
MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
SNOW COVERED VALLEYS. ANY FOG ENCOUNTERED WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DROPPING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILES AND INTRODUCE LIFR AND
IFR CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE PARK AND GORE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSES. NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL SITES...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS MAY
BE OBSCURED AT TIMES IN THIS AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC





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