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000
FXUS65 KGJT 281128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
428 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING CLOUD TOPS INCREASING
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE AZ/UT BORDER WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS BURLY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF UT/CO BY THIS EVENING LIFTING ALONG THE 125KT JET AXIS.
ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IDENTIFYING A VORT MAX DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND EAST CORRIDOR SINCE THIS AREA IS HIGHER
ELEVATION AND WILL BE ACCUMULATING FASTER. THINKING THAT THE
GRAND VALLEY AND ALONG I-70 FROM DEQEQUE TO JUST WEST OF GLENWOOD
WILL STAY WET WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK.
THE 06Z MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OVER THE I-70
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT SO THIS MAY NEED TO
BE REASSESSED.

DURING THIS EVENT... THE DURANGO TO PAGOSA CORRIDOR AND THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUANS WILL PRECIPITATE PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE TIME.
TONIGHT MAY BE MUCH LIKE IT WAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE SAN JUANS...THOUGH FORECAST MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT
AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF WESTERN COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS BEEN PROGGED FURTHER
NORTH ON THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND LOOKS TO
TARGET NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM AND DO
EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOCATIONS LESS THAN 6500 FEET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SAN JUANS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD THOUGH LATEST NAM/GFS 06Z RUN CONTINUES TO SHIFT PRECIP A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD. BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...THE SAN JUANS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU TO THE GRAND MESA AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS. BY MONDAY MORNING...THIS BAND WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
HITTING THE FLATTOPS AND EVENTUALLY THE NRN VALLEYS AND NRN MTNS.

AS THE ABOVE OCCURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
DOWN FROM THE NW MONDAY AFTERNOON SHUNTING THE PRECIP EWRD. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP WITH A LULL
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH WILL FAVOR THE NRN MTNS.
AS WE`VE SAID FOR SOME TIME...THIS IS A COMPLICATED STORM WITH
MANY MOVING PARTS AND ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS COULD HAVE RATHER
DRAMATIC EFFECTS. THESE CHANGES NOT AFFECTING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS
TOO MUCH. SAN JUANS STILL GET PUMMELED WITH THE CENTRAL MTNS NOW
PROGGED TO GET A BIT MORE SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND THE NRN
MTNS TOO AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPEAKING OF...TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
NUMBERS...CRAIGS LOW IS USUALLY AROUND 15F...THURSDAY MORNING MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A LOW OF -13F. GRAND JUNCTION LOW IS USUALLY
UPPER 20S...FORECAST LOW THURSDAY IS 10F AND SO ON ACROSS THE CWA.
APPARENTLY WINTER NOT DONE WITH US YET.

MOST PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY WED MORNING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS NW FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING CLEAR AND CRISP DAYS
WITH A SLOW WARM-UP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED FOR KDRO...KCEZ...KPSO AND KTEX.
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT FLT CONDITIONS TO START DROPPING FOR
KMTJ...KGJT...KRIL...KASE AND KEGE AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP NORTH BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
IFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THE SAN JUANS WILL BE OBSCURED ALL DAY
WITH THE CENTRAL MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED IN THE AFTN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ001-002-004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ008.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR UTZ023-024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 281128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
428 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING CLOUD TOPS INCREASING
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. HEAVY
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE AZ/UT BORDER WITH THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS BURLY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF UT/CO BY THIS EVENING LIFTING ALONG THE 125KT JET AXIS.
ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IDENTIFYING A VORT MAX DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST-CENTRAL
COLORADO...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
GLENWOOD SPRINGS AND EAST CORRIDOR SINCE THIS AREA IS HIGHER
ELEVATION AND WILL BE ACCUMULATING FASTER. THINKING THAT THE
GRAND VALLEY AND ALONG I-70 FROM DEQEQUE TO JUST WEST OF GLENWOOD
WILL STAY WET WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK.
THE 06Z MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OVER THE I-70
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT SO THIS MAY NEED TO
BE REASSESSED.

DURING THIS EVENT... THE DURANGO TO PAGOSA CORRIDOR AND THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUANS WILL PRECIPITATE PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE TIME.
TONIGHT MAY BE MUCH LIKE IT WAS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF THE SAN JUANS...THOUGH FORECAST MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT
AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF WESTERN COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS BEEN PROGGED FURTHER
NORTH ON THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND LOOKS TO
TARGET NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM AND DO
EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOCATIONS LESS THAN 6500 FEET DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SAN JUANS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD THOUGH LATEST NAM/GFS 06Z RUN CONTINUES TO SHIFT PRECIP A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD. BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...THE SAN JUANS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU TO THE GRAND MESA AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS. BY MONDAY MORNING...THIS BAND WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
HITTING THE FLATTOPS AND EVENTUALLY THE NRN VALLEYS AND NRN MTNS.

AS THE ABOVE OCCURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
DOWN FROM THE NW MONDAY AFTERNOON SHUNTING THE PRECIP EWRD. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP WITH A LULL
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH WILL FAVOR THE NRN MTNS.
AS WE`VE SAID FOR SOME TIME...THIS IS A COMPLICATED STORM WITH
MANY MOVING PARTS AND ANY SMALL PERTURBATIONS COULD HAVE RATHER
DRAMATIC EFFECTS. THESE CHANGES NOT AFFECTING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS
TOO MUCH. SAN JUANS STILL GET PUMMELED WITH THE CENTRAL MTNS NOW
PROGGED TO GET A BIT MORE SNOW THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND THE NRN
MTNS TOO AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPEAKING OF...TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
NUMBERS...CRAIGS LOW IS USUALLY AROUND 15F...THURSDAY MORNING MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A LOW OF -13F. GRAND JUNCTION LOW IS USUALLY
UPPER 20S...FORECAST LOW THURSDAY IS 10F AND SO ON ACROSS THE CWA.
APPARENTLY WINTER NOT DONE WITH US YET.

MOST PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY WED MORNING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS NW FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN MUCH
COLDER AIR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING CLEAR AND CRISP DAYS
WITH A SLOW WARM-UP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SAN JUANS AND AREAS SOUTH WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED FOR KDRO...KCEZ...KPSO AND KTEX.
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT FLT CONDITIONS TO START DROPPING FOR
KMTJ...KGJT...KRIL...KASE AND KEGE AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP NORTH BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
IFR UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THE SAN JUANS WILL BE OBSCURED ALL DAY
WITH THE CENTRAL MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED IN THE AFTN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003-013.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ001-002-004-005.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ008.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR UTZ023-024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280546
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

PUSHED BACK START TIMES OF CO ZONE 9...10...AND 12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
UNTIL 11AM TOMORROW. CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHORT
TERM MODELS THAT SNOW WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS. NO SIGN OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS AS
WE SEE A LITTLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. FOR AREAS FROM
THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z WITH
AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BY 18Z. IFR/MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
WIDESPREAD AREAS BELOW 3SM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY AND REACH THE I-70
CORRIDOR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT FROM THE SAN JUANS SOUTH AND THEN INCREASE TO THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 SATURDAY...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS AND CIGS AFTER
00Z NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280546
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

PUSHED BACK START TIMES OF CO ZONE 9...10...AND 12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
UNTIL 11AM TOMORROW. CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHORT
TERM MODELS THAT SNOW WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS. NO SIGN OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS AS
WE SEE A LITTLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. FOR AREAS FROM
THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z WITH
AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BY 18Z. IFR/MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
WIDESPREAD AREAS BELOW 3SM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY AND REACH THE I-70
CORRIDOR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT FROM THE SAN JUANS SOUTH AND THEN INCREASE TO THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 SATURDAY...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS AND CIGS AFTER
00Z NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280546
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

PUSHED BACK START TIMES OF CO ZONE 9...10...AND 12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
UNTIL 11AM TOMORROW. CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHORT
TERM MODELS THAT SNOW WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS. NO SIGN OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS AS
WE SEE A LITTLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. FOR AREAS FROM
THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTH...SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z WITH
AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BY 18Z. IFR/MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
WIDESPREAD AREAS BELOW 3SM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH AROUND 18Z SATURDAY AND REACH THE I-70
CORRIDOR JUST BEFORE 00Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT FROM THE SAN JUANS SOUTH AND THEN INCREASE TO THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 SATURDAY...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE VIS AND CIGS AFTER
00Z NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280418
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
918 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

PUSHED BACK START TIMES OF CO ZONE 9...10...AND 12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
UNTIL 11AM TOMORROW. CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHORT
TERM MODELS THAT SNOW WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS. NO SIGN OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280418
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
918 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

PUSHED BACK START TIMES OF CO ZONE 9...10...AND 12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
UNTIL 11AM TOMORROW. CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHORT
TERM MODELS THAT SNOW WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS. NO SIGN OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280418
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
918 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

PUSHED BACK START TIMES OF CO ZONE 9...10...AND 12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
UNTIL 11AM TOMORROW. CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHORT
TERM MODELS THAT SNOW WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS. NO SIGN OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280418
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
918 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

PUSHED BACK START TIMES OF CO ZONE 9...10...AND 12 WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS
UNTIL 11AM TOMORROW. CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHORT
TERM MODELS THAT SNOW WILL NOT START UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS. NO SIGN OF WEATHER OVERNIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ017>019-022-
     023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTH...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR/MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS VIS BLO 3SM -SN CIGS AOB OVC010. KDRO AND
KTEX WILL HAVE STEADY SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTRAL...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF VFR SHRINKING. CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS.

NORTH...MUCH OF THE WEATHER STAYS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 40
CORRIDOR.  VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272258
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

OTHERWISE SCT SHSN WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON OCNLY OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS
BLO 030 VIS BLO 4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING
SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL
BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272258
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

OTHERWISE SCT SHSN WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON OCNLY OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS
BLO 030 VIS BLO 4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING
SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL
BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272258
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

OTHERWISE SCT SHSN WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON OCNLY OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS
BLO 030 VIS BLO 4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING
SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL
BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272258
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS GENERALLY ONTRACK. THE UPPER LOW WAS
DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET CARVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE KEY TO THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO-NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS ON SATURDAY. THIS SATURATES THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE AND PRODUCES SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN SW CO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW
LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH
THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT FOR SATURDAY.
700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH WOULD
RAISE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING AND IS REINFORCED
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM LAKE POWELL TO THE FLAT TOPS.
THIS BRINGS THE BEST SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. WE
HAVE ISSUED A LONG-DURATION WATCH FOR THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS AND
FLAT TOPS WHERE JET SUPPORT IS STRONGEST STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND GOING ALL THE WAY OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INCLUDING AT LEAST THE EASTERN
I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS EXPECTED DETAILS ARE EVOLVING WITH THIS LONG-DURATION STORM.
CONDITIONS AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING EVERY
DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW HOURS. SO STAY TUNED FOR IMPORTANT UPDATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME INTERESTING...BUT NOT UNEXPECTED CHANGES...TO THE MODELS HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL HOWEVER WE ARE STICKING
WITH SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO WHEN AND WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ARE MORE PROBABLE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ARE STILL IN THE BULLSEYE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER A SUBTLE
SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TO THE WEST LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN CWA TO PICK UP SOME HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RETROGRADE BACK OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF LOS ANGELES IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SEPARATION LEAVES US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH
APPEARS NOW TO BE TAPPING INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MERGING IT WITH THE PACIFIC TAP BY MONDAY MORNING. PWAT
REACH AT LEAST TO 0.50 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE GOOD FOR MAKING SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE IT IS
COLD...BUT COULD ALSO LIMIT LOWER LEVEL SNOWFALL PUSHING DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FORECAST FOR SOME OF SOUTHERN VALLEYS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT. PROBLEMS OF MUD
AND BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH...AND THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED BY THE SNOWFALL.

ONE DIFFERENCE THE MODELS HAVE GRABBED ONTO COMES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM
COMES BACK INTO PLAY. A STRONG UPSTREAM WAVE SPLITS OVER OVER THE
WESTERN CANADIAN COAST WITH ONE PIECE SEPARATING AND DROPPING
DOWN THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
WESTERN WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALLOWS IT TO ORIENT
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS DIRECTS THE
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS
CENTRAL UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO BEGIN TO PICK UP BETTER
PRECIPITATION RATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TAKES SHAPE TO THE SOUTH. NOW THIS IS A
BIG CHANGE AND DID TREND THIS WAY...MORE RUNS WILL ADD CONFIDENCE.
THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER IN THIS TIME PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD PICK UP
AGAIN IN THE SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS THE TWO TROUGHS APPEAR TO
PHASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
ADVECTION AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL THEN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES.
MODERATE TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AS WELL BUT
MAY FOCUS MORE ON THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS LIKE TELLURIDE AND OURAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

OTHERWISE SCT SHSN WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON OCNLY OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS
BLO 030 VIS BLO 4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING
SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL
BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ003-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 271757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BAND SET UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE NAM PICKED UP ON THIS
FEATURE YESTERDAY AND THE 12Z RUN SHOWS IT DISSIPATING THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MILD SW FLOW OVERRUNS THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FOR SE UT AND SW
CO WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE 7.5 C/KM ESPECIALLY BETWEEN -70 AND
HIGHWAY 50.

OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS ONTRACK. FOR THE ONSET...THE
KEY LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO- NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS DURING SATURDAY. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL ON TRACK FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SOME SNOW LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON
SATURDAY WITH THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL UNDERCUT A BIT ONCE MORE FOR
SATURDAY. 700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD CLIMB THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS BRINGS THE BEST
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW COLORADO ZONES FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE STORM.

LOTS TO LOOK AT WITH THIS IMPORTANT STORM. CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE EVOLVING EVERY DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW
HOURS. SO STAY TUNED. ITS GOING TO BE BIG!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

H5 VORT MAX OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAS INITIATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW STRATUS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS AHEAD OF THE
BIGGER MOISTURE SOURCE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL NOT COMPLETELY MOVE
OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY BUT SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OPEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
FROM THE WEST. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW CLOSES OFF AND LEAVES THE
GREAT BASIN IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL STREAM ENERGY
AND MOISTURE INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

KEPT ISO STORMS IN FOR LARGE SWATH OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING BUT A FEW STRIKES ARE DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STORM WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SRN MTNS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY COPIOUS...WE`RE TALKING ANYWHERE FROM
3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW...A REMARKABLE AMOUNT THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE ROUNDED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIE
DIRECTLY ACROSS SERN UT AND COLORADO. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO ALLOW PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
JET STAYS OVER US THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL SHIFTING EAST WHICH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS WHAT LOOKS
LIKE THREE FAIRLY DISTINCT WAVES WITH THE FIRST MOVING OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE...ALSO THE
STRONGEST...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FINAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES EASILY OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR THE SAN
JUANS WHERE AGAIN...3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WITH SOUTH
FACING SLOPES BEING FAVORED. DECIDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 10 TO GOING
WARNINGS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NRN MTNS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION BUT SW FLOW DOES
NOT FAVOR THAT AREA SO MAYBE 8 TO 12 INCHES THERE. DID NOT RAISE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO ALLOW A FEW
MORE MODEL RUNS TO GET THE FINER DETAILS THERE. IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE LULLS IN PRECIPITATION AS ONE
WAVE MOVES OFF AND ANOTHER APPROACHES. THE `LUCKY` AREAS...THINK
WOLF CREEK PASS...MAY SEE CONTINUOUS SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS SRN VALLEYS ARE CONCERNED...TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SERN UT AND ALSO THE
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER AREAS. OF COURSE...THE LAST
STORM LOOKED TOO WARM FOR THOSE AREAS AND ENDED UP DROPPING ABOUT
A FOOT OF SNOW SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST.

IF TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER ANY MTN
PASSES...PLEASE PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION BETWEEN
I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS LATE MORNING IMPACTING KGJT
KMTJ AND KASE WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE SCT SHSN
WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON OCNLY
OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO
4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AIRPORTS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 271757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BAND SET UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE NAM PICKED UP ON THIS
FEATURE YESTERDAY AND THE 12Z RUN SHOWS IT DISSIPATING THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MILD SW FLOW OVERRUNS THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FOR SE UT AND SW
CO WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE 7.5 C/KM ESPECIALLY BETWEEN -70 AND
HIGHWAY 50.

OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS ONTRACK. FOR THE ONSET...THE
KEY LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO- NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS DURING SATURDAY. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL ON TRACK FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SOME SNOW LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON
SATURDAY WITH THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL UNDERCUT A BIT ONCE MORE FOR
SATURDAY. 700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD CLIMB THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS BRINGS THE BEST
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW COLORADO ZONES FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE STORM.

LOTS TO LOOK AT WITH THIS IMPORTANT STORM. CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE EVOLVING EVERY DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW
HOURS. SO STAY TUNED. ITS GOING TO BE BIG!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

H5 VORT MAX OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAS INITIATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW STRATUS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS AHEAD OF THE
BIGGER MOISTURE SOURCE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL NOT COMPLETELY MOVE
OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY BUT SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OPEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
FROM THE WEST. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW CLOSES OFF AND LEAVES THE
GREAT BASIN IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL STREAM ENERGY
AND MOISTURE INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

KEPT ISO STORMS IN FOR LARGE SWATH OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING BUT A FEW STRIKES ARE DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STORM WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SRN MTNS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY COPIOUS...WE`RE TALKING ANYWHERE FROM
3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW...A REMARKABLE AMOUNT THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE ROUNDED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIE
DIRECTLY ACROSS SERN UT AND COLORADO. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO ALLOW PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
JET STAYS OVER US THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL SHIFTING EAST WHICH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS WHAT LOOKS
LIKE THREE FAIRLY DISTINCT WAVES WITH THE FIRST MOVING OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE...ALSO THE
STRONGEST...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FINAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES EASILY OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR THE SAN
JUANS WHERE AGAIN...3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WITH SOUTH
FACING SLOPES BEING FAVORED. DECIDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 10 TO GOING
WARNINGS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NRN MTNS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION BUT SW FLOW DOES
NOT FAVOR THAT AREA SO MAYBE 8 TO 12 INCHES THERE. DID NOT RAISE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO ALLOW A FEW
MORE MODEL RUNS TO GET THE FINER DETAILS THERE. IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE LULLS IN PRECIPITATION AS ONE
WAVE MOVES OFF AND ANOTHER APPROACHES. THE `LUCKY` AREAS...THINK
WOLF CREEK PASS...MAY SEE CONTINUOUS SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS SRN VALLEYS ARE CONCERNED...TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SERN UT AND ALSO THE
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER AREAS. OF COURSE...THE LAST
STORM LOOKED TOO WARM FOR THOSE AREAS AND ENDED UP DROPPING ABOUT
A FOOT OF SNOW SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST.

IF TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER ANY MTN
PASSES...PLEASE PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION BETWEEN
I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS LATE MORNING IMPACTING KGJT
KMTJ AND KASE WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE SCT SHSN
WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON OCNLY
OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO
4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AIRPORTS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BAND SET UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE NAM PICKED UP ON THIS
FEATURE YESTERDAY AND THE 12Z RUN SHOWS IT DISSIPATING THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MILD SW FLOW OVERRUNS THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FOR SE UT AND SW
CO WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE 7.5 C/KM ESPECIALLY BETWEEN -70 AND
HIGHWAY 50.

OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS ONTRACK. FOR THE ONSET...THE
KEY LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO- NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS DURING SATURDAY. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL ON TRACK FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SOME SNOW LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON
SATURDAY WITH THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL UNDERCUT A BIT ONCE MORE FOR
SATURDAY. 700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD CLIMB THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS BRINGS THE BEST
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW COLORADO ZONES FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE STORM.

LOTS TO LOOK AT WITH THIS IMPORTANT STORM. CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE EVOLVING EVERY DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW
HOURS. SO STAY TUNED. ITS GOING TO BE BIG!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

H5 VORT MAX OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAS INITIATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW STRATUS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS AHEAD OF THE
BIGGER MOISTURE SOURCE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL NOT COMPLETELY MOVE
OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY BUT SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OPEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
FROM THE WEST. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW CLOSES OFF AND LEAVES THE
GREAT BASIN IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL STREAM ENERGY
AND MOISTURE INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

KEPT ISO STORMS IN FOR LARGE SWATH OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING BUT A FEW STRIKES ARE DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STORM WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SRN MTNS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY COPIOUS...WE`RE TALKING ANYWHERE FROM
3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW...A REMARKABLE AMOUNT THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE ROUNDED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIE
DIRECTLY ACROSS SERN UT AND COLORADO. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO ALLOW PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
JET STAYS OVER US THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL SHIFTING EAST WHICH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS WHAT LOOKS
LIKE THREE FAIRLY DISTINCT WAVES WITH THE FIRST MOVING OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE...ALSO THE
STRONGEST...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FINAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES EASILY OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR THE SAN
JUANS WHERE AGAIN...3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WITH SOUTH
FACING SLOPES BEING FAVORED. DECIDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 10 TO GOING
WARNINGS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NRN MTNS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION BUT SW FLOW DOES
NOT FAVOR THAT AREA SO MAYBE 8 TO 12 INCHES THERE. DID NOT RAISE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO ALLOW A FEW
MORE MODEL RUNS TO GET THE FINER DETAILS THERE. IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE LULLS IN PRECIPITATION AS ONE
WAVE MOVES OFF AND ANOTHER APPROACHES. THE `LUCKY` AREAS...THINK
WOLF CREEK PASS...MAY SEE CONTINUOUS SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS SRN VALLEYS ARE CONCERNED...TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SERN UT AND ALSO THE
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER AREAS. OF COURSE...THE LAST
STORM LOOKED TOO WARM FOR THOSE AREAS AND ENDED UP DROPPING ABOUT
A FOOT OF SNOW SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST.

IF TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER ANY MTN
PASSES...PLEASE PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION BETWEEN
I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS LATE MORNING IMPACTING KGJT
KMTJ AND KASE WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE SCT SHSN
WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON OCNLY
OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO
4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AIRPORTS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 271757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BAND SET UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE NAM PICKED UP ON THIS
FEATURE YESTERDAY AND THE 12Z RUN SHOWS IT DISSIPATING THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MILD SW FLOW OVERRUNS THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON FOR SE UT AND SW
CO WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE 7.5 C/KM ESPECIALLY BETWEEN -70 AND
HIGHWAY 50.

OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING STORM LOOKS ONTRACK. FOR THE ONSET...THE
KEY LOOKS TO BE FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE JET. THE 120KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW NM THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELED YESTERDAY. THE HEAVIEST
EVENING SNOW BAND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE SOUTH OF THE CO- NM STATE
LINE. THE JET LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO
THE SAN JUANS DURING SATURDAY. SO GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL ON TRACK FOR MANCOS TO PAGOSA AND VICINITY TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
SOME SNOW LIGHTER SNOW TONIGHT BUT STRONGER ACCUMULATIONS ON
SATURDAY WITH THE LIFTING JET.

AS FOR SNOW LEVELS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR TREND
DOWNWARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL UNDERCUT A BIT ONCE MORE FOR
SATURDAY. 700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -3C ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD CLIMB THE RAIN/SNOW LINE UP TO 7500FT. BUT CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DROP THAT LOCALLY LOWER AS MUCH 2000FT LOWER IN THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS.

FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES THE 120KT JET STREAK LIFTS NE
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS BRINGS THE BEST
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NW COLORADO ZONES FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE STORM.

LOTS TO LOOK AT WITH THIS IMPORTANT STORM. CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE EVOLVING EVERY DAY...PERHAPS EVERY FEW
HOURS. SO STAY TUNED. ITS GOING TO BE BIG!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

H5 VORT MAX OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAS INITIATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW STRATUS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS AHEAD OF THE
BIGGER MOISTURE SOURCE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL NOT COMPLETELY MOVE
OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY BUT SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OPEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
FROM THE WEST. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW CLOSES OFF AND LEAVES THE
GREAT BASIN IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL STREAM ENERGY
AND MOISTURE INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

KEPT ISO STORMS IN FOR LARGE SWATH OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING BUT A FEW STRIKES ARE DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STORM WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SRN MTNS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY COPIOUS...WE`RE TALKING ANYWHERE FROM
3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW...A REMARKABLE AMOUNT THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE ROUNDED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIE
DIRECTLY ACROSS SERN UT AND COLORADO. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO ALLOW PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
JET STAYS OVER US THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL SHIFTING EAST WHICH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS WHAT LOOKS
LIKE THREE FAIRLY DISTINCT WAVES WITH THE FIRST MOVING OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE...ALSO THE
STRONGEST...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FINAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES EASILY OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR THE SAN
JUANS WHERE AGAIN...3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WITH SOUTH
FACING SLOPES BEING FAVORED. DECIDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 10 TO GOING
WARNINGS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NRN MTNS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION BUT SW FLOW DOES
NOT FAVOR THAT AREA SO MAYBE 8 TO 12 INCHES THERE. DID NOT RAISE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO ALLOW A FEW
MORE MODEL RUNS TO GET THE FINER DETAILS THERE. IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE LULLS IN PRECIPITATION AS ONE
WAVE MOVES OFF AND ANOTHER APPROACHES. THE `LUCKY` AREAS...THINK
WOLF CREEK PASS...MAY SEE CONTINUOUS SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS SRN VALLEYS ARE CONCERNED...TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SERN UT AND ALSO THE
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER AREAS. OF COURSE...THE LAST
STORM LOOKED TOO WARM FOR THOSE AREAS AND ENDED UP DROPPING ABOUT
A FOOT OF SNOW SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST.

IF TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER ANY MTN
PASSES...PLEASE PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION BETWEEN
I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS THIS LATE MORNING IMPACTING KGJT
KMTJ AND KASE WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE SCT SHSN
WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON OCNLY
OBSCRG MTN TOPS. ALL CO AIRPORTS COULD SEE CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO
4SM IN SHSN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AIRPORTS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SHSN/RASN CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED INTO NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-
     017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

H5 VORT MAX OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAS INITIATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW STRATUS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS AHEAD OF THE
BIGGER MOISTURE SOURCE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL NOT COMPLETELY MOVE
OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY BUT SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OPEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
FROM THE WEST. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW CLOSES OFF AND LEAVES THE
GREAT BASIN IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL STREAM ENERGY
AND MOISTURE INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

KEPT ISO TSTORMS IN FOR LARGE SWATH OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING BUT A FEW STRIKES ARE DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STORM WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SRN MTNS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY COPIOUS...WE`RE TALKING ANYWHERE FROM
3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW...A REMARKABLE AMOUNT THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE ROUNDED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIE
DIRECTLY ACROSS SERN UT AND COLORADO. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO ALLOW PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
JET STAYS OVER US THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL SHIFTING EAST WHICH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS WHAT LOOKS
LIKE THREE FAIRLY DISTINCT WAVES WITH THE FIRST MOVING OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE...ALSO THE
STRONGEST...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FINAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES EASILY OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR THE SAN
JUANS WHERE AGAIN...3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WITH SOUTH
FACING SLOPES BEING FAVORED. DECIDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 10 TO GOING
WARNINGS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NRN MTNS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION BUT SW FLOW DOES
NOT FAVOR THAT AREA SO MAYBE 8 TO 12 INCHES THERE. DID NOT RAISE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO ALLOW A FEW
MORE MODEL RUNS TO GET THE FINER DETAILS THERE. IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE LULLS IN PRECIPITATION AS ONE
WAVE MOVES OFF AND ANOTHER APPROACHES. THE `LUCKY` AREAS...THINK
WOLF CREEK PASS...MAY SEE CONTINUOUS SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS SRN VALLEYS ARE CONCERNED...TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SERN UT AND ALSO THE
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER AREAS. OF COURSE...THE LAST
STORM LOOKED TOO WARM FOR THOSE AREAS AND ENDED UP DROPPING ABOUT
A FOOT OF SNOW SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST.

IF TRAVELLING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER ANY MTN
PASSES...PLEASE PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MANY SITES REPORTING IFR TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS SNOW...FOG...AND
LOW CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A BREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE
PRECIP INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z. EVEN SO...OCCNL
MVFR/IFR IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK BANDS OF PRECIP
PERSIST. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DROPPING STEADILY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

H5 VORT MAX OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING HAS INITIATED SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW STRATUS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS AHEAD OF THE
BIGGER MOISTURE SOURCE AND ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL NOT COMPLETELY MOVE
OUT OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY BUT SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND OPEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
FROM THE WEST. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 4 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW CLOSES OFF AND LEAVES THE
GREAT BASIN IN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL STREAM ENERGY
AND MOISTURE INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE FIRST BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE
REGION.

KEPT ISO TSTORMS IN FOR LARGE SWATH OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING BUT A FEW STRIKES ARE DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STORM WITH
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SRN MTNS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY COPIOUS...WE`RE TALKING ANYWHERE FROM
3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW...A REMARKABLE AMOUNT THAT CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE ROUNDED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL LIE
DIRECTLY ACROSS SERN UT AND COLORADO. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO ALLOW PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
JET STAYS OVER US THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL SHIFTING EAST WHICH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLAY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GFS SHOWS WHAT LOOKS
LIKE THREE FAIRLY DISTINCT WAVES WITH THE FIRST MOVING OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE...ALSO THE
STRONGEST...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THE FINAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES EASILY OVER AN INCH AN HOUR FOR THE SAN
JUANS WHERE AGAIN...3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW WITH SOUTH
FACING SLOPES BEING FAVORED. DECIDED TO INCLUDE ZONE 10 TO GOING
WARNINGS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD. NRN MTNS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION BUT SW FLOW DOES
NOT FAVOR THAT AREA SO MAYBE 8 TO 12 INCHES THERE. DID NOT RAISE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO ALLOW A FEW
MORE MODEL RUNS TO GET THE FINER DETAILS THERE. IMPORTANT TO
MENTION THAT THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE LULLS IN PRECIPITATION AS ONE
WAVE MOVES OFF AND ANOTHER APPROACHES. THE `LUCKY` AREAS...THINK
WOLF CREEK PASS...MAY SEE CONTINUOUS SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

AS FAR AS SRN VALLEYS ARE CONCERNED...TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SERN UT AND ALSO THE
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER AREAS. OF COURSE...THE LAST
STORM LOOKED TOO WARM FOR THOSE AREAS AND ENDED UP DROPPING ABOUT
A FOOT OF SNOW SO THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST.

IF TRAVELLING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER ANY MTN
PASSES...PLEASE PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MANY SITES REPORTING IFR TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS SNOW...FOG...AND
LOW CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A BREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE
PRECIP INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z. EVEN SO...OCCNL
MVFR/IFR IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK BANDS OF PRECIP
PERSIST. AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH DROPPING STEADILY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR QUITE SOME TIME. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ010.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 270729
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1229 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
GLENWOOD SPRINGS EAST TO VAIL. 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED JUST EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REACHED THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM
CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS BEFORE DEPARTING. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
CORTEZ MEASURED 1.5 INCHES...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED FOR LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO...SNOW SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES A SHORT TERM LULL.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW PROMISING STORM ON TRACK. THE
NAM12 QPF IS MORE THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OVER
THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CANNOT TAKE THIS FOR
VERBATIM AS THE NAM12 SOMETIME OVERDOES QPF...BUT WONDER IF THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET FOR STORM SNOW TOTALS OVER THE SAN JUANS IS TOO
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

PASSING BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. A BREAK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 00Z FRIDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND AFFECTING SOUTHERN COLORADO TAF SITES BY 06Z.
CIGS/VIS WILL LOWER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 270729
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1229 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
GLENWOOD SPRINGS EAST TO VAIL. 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED JUST EAST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS...AND SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REACHED THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM
CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS BEFORE DEPARTING. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
CORTEZ MEASURED 1.5 INCHES...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED FOR LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO...SNOW SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES A SHORT TERM LULL.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW PROMISING STORM ON TRACK. THE
NAM12 QPF IS MORE THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OVER
THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CANNOT TAKE THIS FOR
VERBATIM AS THE NAM12 SOMETIME OVERDOES QPF...BUT WONDER IF THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET FOR STORM SNOW TOTALS OVER THE SAN JUANS IS TOO
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

PASSING BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. A BREAK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 00Z FRIDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND AFFECTING SOUTHERN COLORADO TAF SITES BY 06Z.
CIGS/VIS WILL LOWER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 270550
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REACHED THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM
CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS BEFORE DEPARTING. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
CORTEZ MEASURED 1.5 INCHES...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED FOR LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO...SNOW SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES A SHORT TERM LULL.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW PROMISING STORM ON TRACK. THE
NAM12 QPF IS MORE THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OVER
THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CANNOT TAKE THIS FOR
VERBATIM AS THE NAM12 SOMETIME OVERDOES QPF...BUT WONDER IF THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET FOR STORM SNOW TOTALS OVER THE SAN JUANS IS TOO
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

PASSING BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. A BREAK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 00Z FRIDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND AFFECTING SOUTHERN COLORADO TAF SITES BY 06Z.
CIGS/VIS WILL LOWER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 270550
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1050 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REACHED THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM
CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS BEFORE DEPARTING. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
CORTEZ MEASURED 1.5 INCHES...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED FOR LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO...SNOW SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES A SHORT TERM LULL.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW PROMISING STORM ON TRACK. THE
NAM12 QPF IS MORE THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OVER
THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CANNOT TAKE THIS FOR
VERBATIM AS THE NAM12 SOMETIME OVERDOES QPF...BUT WONDER IF THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET FOR STORM SNOW TOTALS OVER THE SAN JUANS IS TOO
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

PASSING BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. A BREAK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 00Z FRIDAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND AFFECTING SOUTHERN COLORADO TAF SITES BY 06Z.
CIGS/VIS WILL LOWER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 270340
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REACHED THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM
CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS BEFORE DEPARTING. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
CORTEZ MEASURED 1.5 INCHES...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED FOR LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO...SNOW SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES A SHORT TERM LULL.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW PROMISING STORM ON TRACK. THE
NAM12 QPF IS MORE THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OVER
THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CANNOT TAKE THIS FOR
VERBATIM AS THE NAM12 SOMETIME OVERDOES QPF...BUT WONDER IF THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET FOR STORM TOTALS FOR THE SAN JUANS IS TOO LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MANY SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES (EXCEPT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE KGJT AND
KMTJ) WILL HAVE CIGS/VIS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING BANDS OF SNOW MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS TO BELOW
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS...ESPECIALLY KASE AND KTEX. LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR BUT WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 270340
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REACHED THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM
CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS BEFORE DEPARTING. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
CORTEZ MEASURED 1.5 INCHES...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED FOR LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO...SNOW SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES A SHORT TERM LULL.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW PROMISING STORM ON TRACK. THE
NAM12 QPF IS MORE THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OVER
THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CANNOT TAKE THIS FOR
VERBATIM AS THE NAM12 SOMETIME OVERDOES QPF...BUT WONDER IF THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET FOR STORM TOTALS FOR THE SAN JUANS IS TOO LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MANY SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES (EXCEPT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE KGJT AND
KMTJ) WILL HAVE CIGS/VIS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING BANDS OF SNOW MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS TO BELOW
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS...ESPECIALLY KASE AND KTEX. LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR BUT WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 270340 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE... ...CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE IN THE UPDATE SECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REACHED THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS FROM
CORTEZ TO PAGOSA SPRINGS BEFORE DEPARTING. SPOTTER REPORT FROM
CORTEZ MEASURED 1.5 INCHES...SO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED FOR LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. FOR ALL OF
WESTERN COLORADO...SNOW SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES A SHORT TERM LULL.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW PROMISING STORM ON TRACK. THE
NAM12 QPF IS MORE THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OVER
THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CANNOT TAKE THIS FOR
VERBATIM AS THE NAM12 SOMETIME OVERDOES QPF...BUT WONDER IF THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FEET FOR STORM SNOW TOTALS OVER THE SAN JUANS IS TOO
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 840 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

MANY SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES (EXCEPT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE KGJT AND
KMTJ) WILL HAVE CIGS/VIS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING BANDS OF SNOW MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS TO BELOW
AIRFIELD MINIMUMS...ESPECIALLY KASE AND KTEX. LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR BUT WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED THIS MORNING AND VFR DOMINATE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL FORM AFT 21Z MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL TAF
SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z EVENING
WITH CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO 3SM IN SHSN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED THIS MORNING AND VFR DOMINATE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL FORM AFT 21Z MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL TAF
SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z EVENING
WITH CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO 3SM IN SHSN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED THIS MORNING AND VFR DOMINATE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL FORM AFT 21Z MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL TAF
SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z EVENING
WITH CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO 3SM IN SHSN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262215
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FINAL OPEN WAVE IN NW FLOW PASSES TONIGHT BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW-FACING SLOPES.
MORNING AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-4 INCH
RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SW
COLORADO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ONSET OF THE LONG DURATION
SNOW STORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.

A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW DROPS ALONG THE WA-OR COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 110KT JET NOSE FLATTENS INTO NW NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING OVER 0.4 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS...A GOOD BUT NOT GREAT VALUE FOR FEBRUARY. LATE
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS.

SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
STILL FAVORS A HEAVY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH FORCING IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE JET. THE ABAJO AND
FOOTHILLS TOO MAY BE FAVORED TO GET SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL WILL ENHANCE FAVORING SW- FACING
SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CRITICAL FOR THIS STORM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING SE UTAH SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT
IT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO TAKE AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...UNSTABLE....SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH A STORM STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING MONDAY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET.

THE MAIN ENERGY DRIVING THIS STORM IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM JUST OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS SO MUCH TIME BEFORE NOW AND
MONDAY FOR MODELS TO GRAB ONTO SOMETHING AND IMPACT THE FINAL
OUTCOME. THE BROAD PICTURE ABOVE IS FAIRLY CERTAIN BUT THE
FORECAST...LIKE THIS STORM...WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY DYNAMIC. THE
MAIN REASONS I SEE FOR THIS IS CONVECTION...WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...AND WHAT SEVERAL MODELS AGREE
UPON IS A GENERAL LULL IN THE PROLIFIC SNOW RATES SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. OUR FIRST GUESS FOR WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WAS WELL THOUGHT OUT BUT I EXPECTED TO BE HUMBLED ONCE AGAIN
BY MONDAY EVENING AS SNOW TOTALS ARE TALLIED. THE SPINE OF THE SAN
JUANS FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR SILVERTON WILL BE GROUND ZERO. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SNOW
WILL FALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH A MIX IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE
SOUTHWEST LOOK TO BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS FROM SATURDAY
EVENING ONWARD...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW DETAILS OF NOTE OUR PWAT IS SITTING AT .15 ON THE 12Z RAOB
OR ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GOES DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
WITH 150 PERCENT OF PWAT ALONG THE COAST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER IS
PRESENT TO SOUTH DIVIDING US FROM A SUB-TROPICAL TAP. 295-300K
SURFACES STILL SHOW STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE UPSTREAM JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PWAT RESPONDS BY CLIMBING TO NEAR HALF OF AN
INCH BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. STRONG
UPGLIDE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTENING MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING JET...AND FINALLY OCTANE IN THE FORM
OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS VERY
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO MOUNTAINS OF
THE SAN JUANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE JET
LIFTING NORTHWARD...SNOW RATES WILL MODERATE TO THE SOUTH AND MAY
BE ENHANCED TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
AND WOULD PRODUCE BOTH SOME MELTING OF NEW SNOW AND A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A REORGANIZATION OF
LIFT OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.
SNOW RATES AGAIN INCREASE IN THE SOUTH. INTERESTINGLY THIS TROUGH
IS PUSHED OUT BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIER BUT COLDER.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME AT A
LATER TIME. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED THIS MORNING AND VFR DOMINATE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL FORM AFT 21Z MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL TAF
SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z EVENING
WITH CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO 3SM IN SHSN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ014-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ022-023.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261709
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1009 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS REACHING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND
WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH
STABILITY INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF UNSTABLE
AIR. DID ADD CO ZONE 9...17...AND 21 AS WELL AS UT ZONE 28 ABOVE
7500 FT INTO WINTER STORM WATCH. THOUGH MANY NORTH-FACING AREAS
OF ZONE 9 WILL BE BLOCKED FROM HEAVY SNOW DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECTING THE TOP AND SOUTHWEST END OF THE GRAND MESA TO DO
WELL. NOTICED A SIMILARITY IN FORECAST DATA FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE STORM LAST WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE WAA WILL
OCCUR...MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 40S...YET FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY MUCH BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE EVENT EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEREFORE...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS IN THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY THINKING THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM. WINTER STORM
WATCHES MAY START A BIT TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH SO MUCH
MOISTURE AND UNORGANIZED ENERGY PROGGED DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT TO PUSH IT BACK TO LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FASTER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO. KEPT SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS OUT OF WATCH SINCE THIS
STORM DOES NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS SEEN IN THE LAST STORM
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SEE LONG TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE POSITIVE-
TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THIS WEEKEND THEN EJECTS
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE-WED. THE PRIMARY FOCUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST COLORADO NORTH TO
GRAND MESA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR MANY
NORTHERN AREAS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS IN SE UT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD...IT WILL LIFT A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET NORTHWARD INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC SOUTHWEST FLOW
COUPLED WITH INCREASING JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A MOISTENING
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE SHOULD BRING MTN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW TO SE UT AND SW CO FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
CO ZONE 21 (CORTEZ...DOVE CREEK AND VICINITY) TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...THOUGH 700 MB WARM ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAUSES
UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET. ALSO ADDED GRAND MESA AN
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU TO THE WATCH AS 00Z MODELS APPEARED TO PUSH
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
ENOUGH THAT I WAS TEMPTED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALSO IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC.

MODELS SHOW A 700 MB OVER NRN UT THAT GETS SHEARED OUT ACROSS NE UT
AND NW CO SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO WY ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH SAT NIGHT IF IT MATERIALIZES. SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

THE FAR WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO SRN CA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
CWA AND AN ATTEMPT AT WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A RESULT...AND STILL STRUGGLES WITH SNOW LEVELS.
BUT THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR AREA
TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND BEHIND IT FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED THIS MORNING AND VFR DOMINATE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL FORM AFT 21Z MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL TAF
SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z EVENING
WITH CIGS BLO 030 VIS BLO 3SM IN SHSN.



&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-012-014-017>019-021>023.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS REACHING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND
WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH
STABILITY INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF UNSTABLE
AIR. DID ADD CO ZONE 9...17...AND 21 AS WELL AS UT ZONE 28 ABOVE
7500 FT INTO WINTER STORM WATCH. THOUGH MANY NORTH-FACING AREAS
OF ZONE 9 WILL BE BLOCKED FROM HEAVY SNOW DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECTING THE TOP AND SOUTHWEST END OF THE GRAND MESA TO DO
WELL. NOTICED A SIMILARITY IN FORECAST DATA FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE STORM LAST WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE WAA WILL
OCCUR...MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 40S...YET FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY MUCH BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE EVENT EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEREFORE...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS IN THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY THINKING THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM. WINTER STORM
WATCHES MAY START A BIT TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH SO MUCH
MOISTURE AND UNORGANIZED ENERGY PROGGED DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT TO PUSH IT BACK TO LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FASTER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO. KEPT SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS OUT OF WATCH SINCE THIS
STORM DOES NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS SEEN IN THE LAST STORM
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SEE LONG TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE POSITIVE-
TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THIS WEEKEND THEN EJECTS
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE-WED. THE PRIMARY FOCUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST COLORADO NORTH TO
GRAND MESA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR MANY
NORTHERN AREAS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS IN SE UT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD...IT WILL LIFT A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET NORTHWARD INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC SOUTHWEST FLOW
COUPLED WITH INCREASING JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A MOISTENING
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE SHOULD BRING MTN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW TO SE UT AND SW CO FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
CO ZONE 21 (CORTEZ...DOVE CREEK AND VICINITY) TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...THOUGH 700 MB WARM ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAUSES
UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET. ALSO ADDED GRAND MESA AN
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU TO THE WATCH AS 00Z MODELS APPEARED TO PUSH
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
ENOUGH THAT I WAS TEMPTED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALSO IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC.

MODELS SHOW A 700 MB OVER NRN UT THAT GETS SHEARED OUT ACROSS NE UT
AND NW CO SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO WY ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH SAT NIGHT IF IT MATERIALIZES. SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

THE FAR WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO SRN CA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
CWA AND AN ATTEMPT AT WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A RESULT...AND STILL STRUGGLES WITH SNOW LEVELS.
BUT THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR AREA
TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND BEHIND IT FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

KDRO MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW AT KASE MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
THERE. OTHERWISE...TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MTNS FOR THE PERIOD
18Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL
TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE FROM K3MW TO KMYP AFTER ABOUT 20Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-012-014-017>019-021>023.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS REACHING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND
WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH
STABILITY INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF UNSTABLE
AIR. DID ADD CO ZONE 9...17...AND 21 AS WELL AS UT ZONE 28 ABOVE
7500 FT INTO WINTER STORM WATCH. THOUGH MANY NORTH-FACING AREAS
OF ZONE 9 WILL BE BLOCKED FROM HEAVY SNOW DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECTING THE TOP AND SOUTHWEST END OF THE GRAND MESA TO DO
WELL. NOTICED A SIMILARITY IN FORECAST DATA FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE STORM LAST WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE WAA WILL
OCCUR...MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 40S...YET FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY MUCH BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE EVENT EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEREFORE...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS IN THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY THINKING THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM. WINTER STORM
WATCHES MAY START A BIT TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH SO MUCH
MOISTURE AND UNORGANIZED ENERGY PROGGED DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT TO PUSH IT BACK TO LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FASTER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO. KEPT SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS OUT OF WATCH SINCE THIS
STORM DOES NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS SEEN IN THE LAST STORM
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SEE LONG TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE POSITIVE-
TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THIS WEEKEND THEN EJECTS
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE-WED. THE PRIMARY FOCUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST COLORADO NORTH TO
GRAND MESA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR MANY
NORTHERN AREAS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS IN SE UT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD...IT WILL LIFT A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET NORTHWARD INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC SOUTHWEST FLOW
COUPLED WITH INCREASING JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A MOISTENING
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE SHOULD BRING MTN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW TO SE UT AND SW CO FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
CO ZONE 21 (CORTEZ...DOVE CREEK AND VICINITY) TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...THOUGH 700 MB WARM ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAUSES
UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET. ALSO ADDED GRAND MESA AN
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU TO THE WATCH AS 00Z MODELS APPEARED TO PUSH
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
ENOUGH THAT I WAS TEMPTED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALSO IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC.

MODELS SHOW A 700 MB OVER NRN UT THAT GETS SHEARED OUT ACROSS NE UT
AND NW CO SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO WY ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH SAT NIGHT IF IT MATERIALIZES. SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

THE FAR WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO SRN CA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
CWA AND AN ATTEMPT AT WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A RESULT...AND STILL STRUGGLES WITH SNOW LEVELS.
BUT THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR AREA
TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND BEHIND IT FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

KDRO MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW AT KASE MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
THERE. OTHERWISE...TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MTNS FOR THE PERIOD
18Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL
TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE FROM K3MW TO KMYP AFTER ABOUT 20Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-012-014-017>019-021>023.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 261105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS REACHING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND
WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH
STABILITY INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF UNSTABLE
AIR. DID ADD CO ZONE 9...17...AND 21 AS WELL AS UT ZONE 28 ABOVE
7500 FT INTO WINTER STORM WATCH. THOUGH MANY NORTH-FACING AREAS
OF ZONE 9 WILL BE BLOCKED FROM HEAVY SNOW DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECTING THE TOP AND SOUTHWEST END OF THE GRAND MESA TO DO
WELL. NOTICED A SIMILARITY IN FORECAST DATA FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE STORM LAST WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE WAA WILL
OCCUR...MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 40S...YET FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY MUCH BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE EVENT EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEREFORE...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS IN THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY THINKING THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM. WINTER STORM
WATCHES MAY START A BIT TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH SO MUCH
MOISTURE AND UNORGANIZED ENERGY PROGGED DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT TO PUSH IT BACK TO LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FASTER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO. KEPT SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS OUT OF WATCH SINCE THIS
STORM DOES NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS SEEN IN THE LAST STORM
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SEE LONG TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE POSITIVE-
TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THIS WEEKEND THEN EJECTS
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE-WED. THE PRIMARY FOCUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST COLORADO NORTH TO
GRAND MESA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR MANY
NORTHERN AREAS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS IN SE UT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD...IT WILL LIFT A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET NORTHWARD INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC SOUTHWEST FLOW
COUPLED WITH INCREASING JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A MOISTENING
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE SHOULD BRING MTN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW TO SE UT AND SW CO FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
CO ZONE 21 (CORTEZ...DOVE CREEK AND VICINITY) TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...THOUGH 700 MB WARM ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAUSES
UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET. ALSO ADDED GRAND MESA AN
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU TO THE WATCH AS 00Z MODELS APPEARED TO PUSH
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
ENOUGH THAT I WAS TEMPTED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALSO IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC.

MODELS SHOW A 700 MB OVER NRN UT THAT GETS SHEARED OUT ACROSS NE UT
AND NW CO SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO WY ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH SAT NIGHT IF IT MATERIALIZES. SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

THE FAR WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO SRN CA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
CWA AND AN ATTEMPT AT WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A RESULT...AND STILL STRUGGLES WITH SNOW LEVELS.
BUT THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR AREA
TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND BEHIND IT FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

KDRO MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW AT KASE MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
THERE. OTHERWISE...TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MTNS FOR THE PERIOD
18Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL
TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE FROM K3MW TO KMYP AFTER ABOUT 20Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-012-014-017>019-021>023.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS REACHING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING EASTERN UTAH LATE THIS MORNING AND
WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERRAIN
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH
STABILITY INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF UNSTABLE
AIR. DID ADD CO ZONE 9...17...AND 21 AS WELL AS UT ZONE 28 ABOVE
7500 FT INTO WINTER STORM WATCH. THOUGH MANY NORTH-FACING AREAS
OF ZONE 9 WILL BE BLOCKED FROM HEAVY SNOW DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECTING THE TOP AND SOUTHWEST END OF THE GRAND MESA TO DO
WELL. NOTICED A SIMILARITY IN FORECAST DATA FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE STORM LAST WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WHERE WAA WILL
OCCUR...MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 40S...YET FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY MUCH BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE EVENT EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEREFORE...DECREASED HIGH TEMPS IN THESE AREAS FOR
FRIDAY THINKING THAT MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM. WINTER STORM
WATCHES MAY START A BIT TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH SO MUCH
MOISTURE AND UNORGANIZED ENERGY PROGGED DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT TO PUSH IT BACK TO LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FASTER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF
COLORADO. KEPT SOUTHEAST UTAH VALLEYS OUT OF WATCH SINCE THIS
STORM DOES NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS SEEN IN THE LAST STORM
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SEE LONG TERM SECTION FOR MORE ON THIS
EXTENDED ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE POSITIVE-
TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST THIS WEEKEND THEN EJECTS
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE-WED. THE PRIMARY FOCUS...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST COLORADO NORTH TO
GRAND MESA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR MANY
NORTHERN AREAS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR THE ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS IN SE UT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD...IT WILL LIFT A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET NORTHWARD INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC SOUTHWEST FLOW
COUPLED WITH INCREASING JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A MOISTENING
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE SHOULD BRING MTN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW TO SE UT AND SW CO FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DECIDED TO INCLUDE
CO ZONE 21 (CORTEZ...DOVE CREEK AND VICINITY) TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...THOUGH 700 MB WARM ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAUSES
UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW ABOUT 6000 FEET. ALSO ADDED GRAND MESA AN
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU TO THE WATCH AS 00Z MODELS APPEARED TO PUSH
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
ENOUGH THAT I WAS TEMPTED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALSO IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC.

MODELS SHOW A 700 MB OVER NRN UT THAT GETS SHEARED OUT ACROSS NE UT
AND NW CO SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO WY ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH SAT NIGHT IF IT MATERIALIZES. SOMETHING
TO WATCH.

THE FAR WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO SRN CA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
CWA AND AN ATTEMPT AT WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A RESULT...AND STILL STRUGGLES WITH SNOW LEVELS.
BUT THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR AREA
TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND BEHIND IT FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

KDRO MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW AT KASE MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
THERE. OTHERWISE...TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. SCATTERED -SHSN WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MTNS FOR THE PERIOD
18Z-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALL
TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
DIVIDE FROM K3MW TO KMYP AFTER ABOUT 20Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ009-012-014-017>019-021>023.

UT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260705
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1205 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISO SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MTNS OF WESTERN CO AND THE SAN JUANS. WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL AROUND NOON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z THURSDAY...BUT MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLORADO
(MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS) AFTER 18Z INCLUDING KASE...KEGE...AND
KTEX. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER
00Z THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260546
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z THURSDAY...BUT MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLORADO
(MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS) AFTER 18Z INCLUDING KASE...KEGE...AND
KTEX. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER
00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260546
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z THURSDAY...BUT MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLORADO
(MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS) AFTER 18Z INCLUDING KASE...KEGE...AND
KTEX. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER
00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260546
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z THURSDAY...BUT MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLORADO
(MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS) AFTER 18Z INCLUDING KASE...KEGE...AND
KTEX. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER
00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260546
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z THURSDAY...BUT MORE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN COLORADO
(MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS) AFTER 18Z INCLUDING KASE...KEGE...AND
KTEX. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AFTER
00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW COLORADO UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING
WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIMITED CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS SUCH AS KASE/KTEX. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KGJT...KMTJ AND KRIL THIS
EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VIS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD.

NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z
AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KASE...KEGE AND KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW COLORADO UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING
WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIMITED CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS SUCH AS KASE/KTEX. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KGJT...KMTJ AND KRIL THIS
EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VIS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD.

NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z
AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KASE...KEGE AND KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
MONTROSE LATER THIS EVENING. BOOSTED VALLEY POPS THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT CURRENT SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW COLORADO UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING
WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIMITED CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS SUCH AS KASE/KTEX. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KGJT...KMTJ AND KRIL THIS
EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VIS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD.

NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z
AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KASE...KEGE AND KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260026
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW COLORADO UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING
WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIMITED CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS SUCH AS KASE/KTEX. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KGJT...KMTJ AND KRIL THIS
EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VIS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD.

NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z
AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KASE...KEGE AND KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260026
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW COLORADO UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING
WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIMITED CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT MOUNTAIN AIRFIELDS SUCH AS KASE/KTEX. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KGJT...KMTJ AND KRIL THIS
EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VIS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD.

NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z
AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KASE...KEGE AND KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 252234
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
334 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ALL DAY
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE COOL ADVECTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORING MANY
NORTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS FROM THE FLAT TOPS AND NORTHERN
PLATEAUS TO THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS. WEBCAMS SHOW THE INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING QUICKLY AS
SNOW RATES INCREASE. HOWEVER LOOKING AT AREA WEB CAMS ROADWAYS ARE
STAYING IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...EVEN OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
SNOTELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDED OCTANE BUT
STILL THE MAJORITY ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW STAKES SHOW
THE SAME AT LOCAL SKI AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS IS DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SHEARING ACROSS THE COLORADO UTAH
BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME BOOST WILL BE LOST AT
SUNSET SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...ENDING OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO LEAK INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO
ALONG I-70 AND NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE TRANSITION
AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND THE NEXT ENERGY DIGGING TO OUR
WEST LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OUR CWA. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS COULD REMAIN OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SNOW RATES NOT EXCESSIVE. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT/S WAY BACK INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THIS AFTERNOON AND JET SUPPORT RETREATS
TO THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SUNSET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE WAVE TAKES A TIGHTER CYCLONIC CURVE ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS AS THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO CURVE ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SOME SNOW GOING IN THE HILLS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LEFT COAST FROM SO.CAL NORTHWARD...300K
SURFACES SHOW A HEALTHY SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED INLAND AS OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND DROPS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

WELCOME TO WEEKEND STORM NUMBER TWO UNDER THIS NEW IMPROVED
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS STORM IS NOTABLE FOR ITS EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS...PERHAPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC TROUGHS SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST
EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY. DESCENT MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS WITH PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE GOOD SNOWFALL FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS NE TO THE WEST ELK MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IN MILD WARM MOIST ADVECTION...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR SW-FACING
SLOPES.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS THE LOW DIGS
DOWN THE COAST. THE 120KT JET OVER NEW MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE SAN
JUAN MTNS INTO THE WEST ELKS. 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS UNDER
THE JET. A SURFACE-700MB LOW DEEPENS IN SE UTAH ADDING TO THE
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7KFT. THE JET SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOME DIMINISHING OF
THE MOUNTAIN WINDS BUT MOIST OROGRAPHIC SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THE 18Z GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO MATCH THE EC TIMING WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FIRST LOW OFF TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
LIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTH THRU THE DAY. A DOWN TURN OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE ENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HERE.

BUT ALREADY BY TUESDAY A COLDER TROUGH HAS DIVED DOWN THE COAST
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ON
TUESDAY DRIVING SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND
EFFICIENTLY TURNING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SNOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THE FLOW TURNS TO COLD ADVECTIVE NORTH WITH SNOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES BUT STILL FAVORING THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SECOND LOW ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

PRECIPITATION BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS T0 ASE AND TEX TERMINALS
LATE THIS MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME BRIEF VFR BUT
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE ILS MARKERS NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE.
MOIST...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
HILLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY PUSH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH ATTM AND THIS
REFLECTED IN UPCOMING FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH
OF MOISTURE MAY BRING IMPROVED VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ012-014-018-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251752
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF A TEX TO GJT TO VEL
LINE. SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FROM CRAIG
EASTWARD WITH A CONVERGENT LINE ALSO BRINGING SHOWERS OFF THE ROAN
PLATEAU TO THE RIFLE UP TO THE GLENWOOD SPRINGS AREA. SNOTELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH ACCUMULATION ATTM AND ROADWAYS ALL SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE SO STILL NO PLANS FOR WINTER HEADLINES ATTM. OVERALL RAISED
POPS IN SOME AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTH FACING SAN JUANS WHERE
OURAY AND TEX ALL SHOWING SNOW. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN UNORGANIZED WEATHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAVILY
OCCUR ON THE FRONT RANGE...BUT FORECAST H5 VORTICITY FIELDS PUSH
PULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO AS WELL TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. WX MODELS THIS MORNING
NOT SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL SNOW IN THE NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 5 INCHES IN ISOLATED HIGH
ELEVATIONS SPOTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WITHOUT ANY HILIGHTS THIS MORNING WITH SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN PUSH OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SO NUDGED POPS UP FROM MODEL OUTPUT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS A BROADER AREA.

A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
A TROUGH AT THE 700MB LEVEL DROPS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT THE GFS/EC/SREF ARE A BIT TOO BROAD
WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION AND THAT THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH LOOKS
RATHER CONVECTIVE IS MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING
THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATED INSTABILITY AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE DEPTH NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHLIGHTS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ANOTHER MATTER. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A PATTERN NOT ENTIRELY DISSIMILAR TO THAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WHICH DUMPED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
SPECIFICALLY...MODELS SHOWED A LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES PACIFIC MOISTURE
BECOMES ENTRAINED CAUSING 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO RISE TO THE 3.5
TO 4.0 G/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PORTENDS
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE SAN JUANS COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 FEET OF
SNOW WITH NEAR A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. START TIME OF THIS EVENT IS EITHER LATE 5TH PERIOD
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF AND NAM AND EARLY 6TH PERIOD ACCORDING TO
THE GFS40 AND THUS A BIT FAR OUT TO HOIST A WATCH JUST YET AS
DETAILS STILL A BIT SKETCHY.

LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION INDICATED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA IMPACTING
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND KEEPING READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

PRECIPITATION BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS T0 ASE AND TEX TERMINALS
LATE THIS MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME BRIEF VFR BUT
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE ILS MARKERS NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE.
MOIST...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
HILLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY PUSH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH ATTM AND THIS
REFLECTED IN UPCOMING FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH
OF MOISTURE MAY BRING IMPROVED VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 251752
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF A TEX TO GJT TO VEL
LINE. SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FROM CRAIG
EASTWARD WITH A CONVERGENT LINE ALSO BRINGING SHOWERS OFF THE ROAN
PLATEAU TO THE RIFLE UP TO THE GLENWOOD SPRINGS AREA. SNOTELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH ACCUMULATION ATTM AND ROADWAYS ALL SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE SO STILL NO PLANS FOR WINTER HEADLINES ATTM. OVERALL RAISED
POPS IN SOME AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTH FACING SAN JUANS WHERE
OURAY AND TEX ALL SHOWING SNOW. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN UNORGANIZED WEATHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAVILY
OCCUR ON THE FRONT RANGE...BUT FORECAST H5 VORTICITY FIELDS PUSH
PULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO AS WELL TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. WX MODELS THIS MORNING
NOT SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL SNOW IN THE NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 5 INCHES IN ISOLATED HIGH
ELEVATIONS SPOTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WITHOUT ANY HILIGHTS THIS MORNING WITH SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN PUSH OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SO NUDGED POPS UP FROM MODEL OUTPUT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS A BROADER AREA.

A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
A TROUGH AT THE 700MB LEVEL DROPS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT THE GFS/EC/SREF ARE A BIT TOO BROAD
WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION AND THAT THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH LOOKS
RATHER CONVECTIVE IS MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING
THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATED INSTABILITY AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE DEPTH NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHLIGHTS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ANOTHER MATTER. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A PATTERN NOT ENTIRELY DISSIMILAR TO THAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WHICH DUMPED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
SPECIFICALLY...MODELS SHOWED A LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES PACIFIC MOISTURE
BECOMES ENTRAINED CAUSING 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO RISE TO THE 3.5
TO 4.0 G/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PORTENDS
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE SAN JUANS COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 FEET OF
SNOW WITH NEAR A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. START TIME OF THIS EVENT IS EITHER LATE 5TH PERIOD
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF AND NAM AND EARLY 6TH PERIOD ACCORDING TO
THE GFS40 AND THUS A BIT FAR OUT TO HOIST A WATCH JUST YET AS
DETAILS STILL A BIT SKETCHY.

LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION INDICATED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA IMPACTING
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND KEEPING READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

PRECIPITATION BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS T0 ASE AND TEX TERMINALS
LATE THIS MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME BRIEF VFR BUT
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE ILS MARKERS NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE.
MOIST...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
HILLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY PUSH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH ATTM AND THIS
REFLECTED IN UPCOMING FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH
OF MOISTURE MAY BRING IMPROVED VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251752
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF A TEX TO GJT TO VEL
LINE. SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FROM CRAIG
EASTWARD WITH A CONVERGENT LINE ALSO BRINGING SHOWERS OFF THE ROAN
PLATEAU TO THE RIFLE UP TO THE GLENWOOD SPRINGS AREA. SNOTELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH ACCUMULATION ATTM AND ROADWAYS ALL SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE SO STILL NO PLANS FOR WINTER HEADLINES ATTM. OVERALL RAISED
POPS IN SOME AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTH FACING SAN JUANS WHERE
OURAY AND TEX ALL SHOWING SNOW. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN UNORGANIZED WEATHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAVILY
OCCUR ON THE FRONT RANGE...BUT FORECAST H5 VORTICITY FIELDS PUSH
PULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO AS WELL TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. WX MODELS THIS MORNING
NOT SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL SNOW IN THE NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 5 INCHES IN ISOLATED HIGH
ELEVATIONS SPOTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WITHOUT ANY HILIGHTS THIS MORNING WITH SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN PUSH OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SO NUDGED POPS UP FROM MODEL OUTPUT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS A BROADER AREA.

A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
A TROUGH AT THE 700MB LEVEL DROPS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT THE GFS/EC/SREF ARE A BIT TOO BROAD
WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION AND THAT THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH LOOKS
RATHER CONVECTIVE IS MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING
THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATED INSTABILITY AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE DEPTH NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHLIGHTS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ANOTHER MATTER. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A PATTERN NOT ENTIRELY DISSIMILAR TO THAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WHICH DUMPED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
SPECIFICALLY...MODELS SHOWED A LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES PACIFIC MOISTURE
BECOMES ENTRAINED CAUSING 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO RISE TO THE 3.5
TO 4.0 G/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PORTENDS
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE SAN JUANS COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 FEET OF
SNOW WITH NEAR A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. START TIME OF THIS EVENT IS EITHER LATE 5TH PERIOD
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF AND NAM AND EARLY 6TH PERIOD ACCORDING TO
THE GFS40 AND THUS A BIT FAR OUT TO HOIST A WATCH JUST YET AS
DETAILS STILL A BIT SKETCHY.

LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION INDICATED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA IMPACTING
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND KEEPING READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

PRECIPITATION BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS T0 ASE AND TEX TERMINALS
LATE THIS MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME BRIEF VFR BUT
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE ILS MARKERS NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE.
MOIST...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
HILLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY PUSH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH ATTM AND THIS
REFLECTED IN UPCOMING FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH
OF MOISTURE MAY BRING IMPROVED VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 251752
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF A TEX TO GJT TO VEL
LINE. SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FROM CRAIG
EASTWARD WITH A CONVERGENT LINE ALSO BRINGING SHOWERS OFF THE ROAN
PLATEAU TO THE RIFLE UP TO THE GLENWOOD SPRINGS AREA. SNOTELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH ACCUMULATION ATTM AND ROADWAYS ALL SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE SO STILL NO PLANS FOR WINTER HEADLINES ATTM. OVERALL RAISED
POPS IN SOME AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTH FACING SAN JUANS WHERE
OURAY AND TEX ALL SHOWING SNOW. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN UNORGANIZED WEATHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAVILY
OCCUR ON THE FRONT RANGE...BUT FORECAST H5 VORTICITY FIELDS PUSH
PULSES OF ENERGY THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO AS WELL TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN UTAH. WX MODELS THIS MORNING
NOT SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL SNOW IN THE NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 5 INCHES IN ISOLATED HIGH
ELEVATIONS SPOTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WITHOUT ANY HILIGHTS THIS MORNING WITH SUB-ADVISORY AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN PUSH OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON SO NUDGED POPS UP FROM MODEL OUTPUT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS A BROADER AREA.

A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
A TROUGH AT THE 700MB LEVEL DROPS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. THINKING THAT THE GFS/EC/SREF ARE A BIT TOO BROAD
WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION AND THAT THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH LOOKS
RATHER CONVECTIVE IS MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING
THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATED INSTABILITY AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE DEPTH NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHLIGHTS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ANOTHER MATTER. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUED TO DEPICT A PATTERN NOT ENTIRELY DISSIMILAR TO THAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WHICH DUMPED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
SPECIFICALLY...MODELS SHOWED A LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES PACIFIC MOISTURE
BECOMES ENTRAINED CAUSING 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO RISE TO THE 3.5
TO 4.0 G/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS PORTENDS
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE SAN JUANS COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 FEET OF
SNOW WITH NEAR A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. START TIME OF THIS EVENT IS EITHER LATE 5TH PERIOD
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF AND NAM AND EARLY 6TH PERIOD ACCORDING TO
THE GFS40 AND THUS A BIT FAR OUT TO HOIST A WATCH JUST YET AS
DETAILS STILL A BIT SKETCHY.

LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION INDICATED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA IMPACTING
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THIS WEEKEND KEEPING READINGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

PRECIPITATION BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS T0 ASE AND TEX TERMINALS
LATE THIS MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME BRIEF VFR BUT
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE ILS MARKERS NOT HIGHLY PROBABLE.
MOIST...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
HILLS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING A SECONDARY PUSH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH ATTM AND THIS
REFLECTED IN UPCOMING FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH
OF MOISTURE MAY BRING IMPROVED VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE FORECAST
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT





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