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000
FXUS65 KGJT 311654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE...THE RESULT OF THE AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
TX INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A MODERATELY WEAK UPPER JET STREAM WILL
STRETCH SW-NE ACROSS EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO TODAY...THEN WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ON TUE AS THE TX HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRIES
TO SPREAD WESTWARD A LITTLE. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH MINOR JET MAXIMA...WILL STREAM OVER
THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE
OVER SONORA TO SOUTHERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR
MOISTURE TO WORK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN CO AND
EASTERN UT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LAST NIGHT...BUT
THE NAM12 KEEPS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER STRETCHED
NEARLY TO THE WYOMING BORDER THROUGH TUE.

FOR TODAY...THE LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH JET
SUPPORT OVERHEAD BOOSTS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WAS SEEN SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TODAY LACKS THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SUN EVENING. ALSO LESS NOCTURNAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN EMBEDDED WAVES PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PERSIST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION ERODES AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FORCED JUST TO
THE EAST AT MIDWEEK. WITH LESS FUEL FOR MOIST CONVECTION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME AND THEREFORE...THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
STORMS.

ACTIVITY IS INDICATED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FIRST DIGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...THEN
EJECTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION NOT QUITE IN SYNC WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT SIMILAR. HOWEVER...MINOR VARIANCES IN FLOW SEEMED
TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE ECMWF
MARKEDLY DRIER FRIDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...LEFT POPS IN THE
LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE CATEGORY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE DRIER EXCEPT OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES REFLECT THE QUASI-STAGNANT PATTERN DESCRIBED
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS SECTION AND ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING. SO FAR IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
MIMIMAL WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES AND CLOUDS STAYING AOA ILS
BREAK POINTS. MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS COULD BE AFFECTED BY GUSTY WINDS WITH
PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLY LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA TO
MVFR. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST KRIL...KEGE AND KASE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME
IMPACTS THROUGH 21/20Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 311025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE...THE RESULT OF THE AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
TX INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A MODERATELY WEAK UPPER JET STREAM WILL
STRETCH SW-NE ACROSS EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO TODAY...THEN WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ON TUE AS THE TX HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRIES
TO SPREAD WESTWARD A LITTLE. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH MINOR JET MAXIMA...WILL STREAM OVER
THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE
OVER SONORA TO SOUTHERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR
MOISTURE TO WORK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN CO AND
EASTERN UT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LAST NIGHT...BUT
THE NAM12 KEEPS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER STRETCHED
NEARLY TO THE WYOMING BORDER THROUGH TUE.

FOR TODAY...THE LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH JET
SUPPORT OVERHEAD BOOSTS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WAS SEEN SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TODAY LACKS THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SUN EVENING. ALSO LESS NOCTURNAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN EMBEDDED WAVES PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PERSIST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION ERODES AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FORCED JUST TO
THE EAST AT MIDWEEK. WITH LESS FUEL FOR MOIST CONVECTION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME AND THEREFORE...THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
STORMS.

ACTIVITY IS INDICATED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FIRST DIGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...THEN
EJECTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION NOT QUITE IN SYNC WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT SIMILAR. HOWEVER...MINOR VARIANCES IN FLOW SEEMED
TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE ECMWF
MARKEDLY DRIER FRIDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...LEFT POPS IN THE
LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE CATEGORY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE DRIER EXCEPT OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES REFLECT THE QUASI-STAGNANT PATTERN DESCRIBED
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS SECTION AND ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR...NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERATE LITTLE WIND
AND ILS BREAKPOINTS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT
KASE. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z/TUE. THERE IS ROUGHLY
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND LESSER CHANCES FOR VSBY OR CIGS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 02Z BUT
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ON AVIATION ARE QUITE SMALL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE...THE RESULT OF THE AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
TX INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A MODERATELY WEAK UPPER JET STREAM WILL
STRETCH SW-NE ACROSS EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO TODAY...THEN WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ON TUE AS THE TX HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRIES
TO SPREAD WESTWARD A LITTLE. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH MINOR JET MAXIMA...WILL STREAM OVER
THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE
OVER SONORA TO SOUTHERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR
MOISTURE TO WORK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN CO AND
EASTERN UT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LAST NIGHT...BUT
THE NAM12 KEEPS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER STRETCHED
NEARLY TO THE WYOMING BORDER THROUGH TUE.

FOR TODAY...THE LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH JET
SUPPORT OVERHEAD BOOSTS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WAS SEEN SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TODAY LACKS THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SUN EVENING. ALSO LESS NOCTURNAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN EMBEDDED WAVES PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PERSIST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION ERODES AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FORCED JUST TO
THE EAST AT MIDWEEK. WITH LESS FUEL FOR MOIST CONVECTION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME AND THEREFORE...THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
STORMS.

ACTIVITY IS INDICATED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FIRST DIGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...THEN
EJECTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION NOT QUITE IN SYNC WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT SIMILAR. HOWEVER...MINOR VARIANCES IN FLOW SEEMED
TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE ECMWF
MARKEDLY DRIER FRIDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...LEFT POPS IN THE
LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE CATEGORY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE DRIER EXCEPT OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES REFLECT THE QUASI-STAGNANT PATTERN DESCRIBED
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS SECTION AND ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR...NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERATE LITTLE WIND
AND ILS BREAKPOINTS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT
KASE. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z/TUE. THERE IS ROUGHLY
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND LESSER CHANCES FOR VSBY OR CIGS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 02Z BUT
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ON AVIATION ARE QUITE SMALL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE...THE RESULT OF THE AREA BEING POSITIONED BETWEEN GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
TX INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A MODERATELY WEAK UPPER JET STREAM WILL
STRETCH SW-NE ACROSS EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO TODAY...THEN WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-EAST ON TUE AS THE TX HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TRIES
TO SPREAD WESTWARD A LITTLE. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH MINOR JET MAXIMA...WILL STREAM OVER
THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE
OVER SONORA TO SOUTHERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR
MOISTURE TO WORK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN CO AND
EASTERN UT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LAST NIGHT...BUT
THE NAM12 KEEPS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER STRETCHED
NEARLY TO THE WYOMING BORDER THROUGH TUE.

FOR TODAY...THE LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH JET
SUPPORT OVERHEAD BOOSTS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE DAY ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WAS SEEN SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TODAY LACKS THE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SUN EVENING. ALSO LESS NOCTURNAL
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

TUE LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN EMBEDDED WAVES PASSES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PERSIST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION ERODES AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FORCED JUST TO
THE EAST AT MIDWEEK. WITH LESS FUEL FOR MOIST CONVECTION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME AND THEREFORE...THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
STORMS.

ACTIVITY IS INDICATED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH FIRST DIGS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...THEN
EJECTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION NOT QUITE IN SYNC WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION...BUT SIMILAR. HOWEVER...MINOR VARIANCES IN FLOW SEEMED
TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE ECMWF
MARKEDLY DRIER FRIDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...LEFT POPS IN THE
LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE CATEGORY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE DRIER EXCEPT OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES REFLECT THE QUASI-STAGNANT PATTERN DESCRIBED
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS SECTION AND ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR...NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERATE LITTLE WIND
AND ILS BREAKPOINTS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT
KASE. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z/TUE. THERE IS ROUGHLY
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND LESSER CHANCES FOR VSBY OR CIGS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 02Z BUT
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ON AVIATION ARE QUITE SMALL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310454
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE STORM ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY FROM DRY TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO
SE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3
INCHES THERE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q
CONVERGENCE) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FEW MINOR
IMPULSES AND JET SPEED MAXIMA...AS WELL AS A BIT OF VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR...WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW THAT OLD BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NWRN U.S. AND
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG JET WILL CUT
THROUGH NW UT AND WESTERN WY...WHILE THE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER NW CO AND NE UT FRI AND SAT. SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UT WILL
SEE AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTH. A TROPICAL STORM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADD
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35
MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE...
KRIL...KTEX AND KMTJ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM KGJT TO NEAR KSBS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY IMPACT KRIL...KEGE
AND KASE THROUGH 08Z AND KEEO...KHDN AND KSBS THROUGH 12Z. CIGS
MAY LOWER BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS BRIEFLY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z...MAINLY OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PORTION OF COLORADO. AFTER 18Z...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE CURRENTS AND
MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAUS BECOME FAVORED THROUGH 02Z/TUES. THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING THOUGH IMPACTS ON AVIATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
551 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE STORM ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY FROM DRY TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO
SE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3
INCHES THERE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q
CONVERGENCE) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FEW MINOR
IMPULSES AND JET SPEED MAXIMA...AS WELL AS A BIT OF VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR...WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW THAT OLD BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NWRN U.S. AND
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG JET WILL CUT
THROUGH NW UT AND WESTERN WY...WHILE THE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER NW CO AND NE UT FRI AND SAT. SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UT WILL
SEE AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTH. A TROPICAL STORM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADD
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35
MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE...
KRIL...KTEX AND KMTJ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. MAIN CONCERN FROM THESE STORMS ARE GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. MOST CIGS REMAIN ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS
THOUGH THE MTN TAF SITES MAY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW THEM. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE STARTING TO DIE DOWN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER THAT WITH CHANCES REMAINING FOR
SHOWERS AND MAY AN ODD RUMBLE OF THUNDER. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TSRA FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR MOST TAF SITES. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 17 TO 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
551 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE STORM ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY FROM DRY TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO
SE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3
INCHES THERE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q
CONVERGENCE) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FEW MINOR
IMPULSES AND JET SPEED MAXIMA...AS WELL AS A BIT OF VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR...WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW THAT OLD BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NWRN U.S. AND
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG JET WILL CUT
THROUGH NW UT AND WESTERN WY...WHILE THE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER NW CO AND NE UT FRI AND SAT. SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UT WILL
SEE AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTH. A TROPICAL STORM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADD
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35
MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE...
KRIL...KTEX AND KMTJ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. MAIN CONCERN FROM THESE STORMS ARE GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. MOST CIGS REMAIN ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS
THOUGH THE MTN TAF SITES MAY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW THEM. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE STARTING TO DIE DOWN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER THAT WITH CHANCES REMAINING FOR
SHOWERS AND MAY AN ODD RUMBLE OF THUNDER. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TSRA FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS FOR MOST TAF SITES. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TAP FOR TOMORROW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BETWEEN 17 TO 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302121
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE STORM ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY FROM DRY TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO
SE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3
INCHES THERE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q
CONVERGENCE) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FEW MINOR
IMPULSES AND JET SPEED MAXIMA...AS WELL AS A BIT OF VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR...WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW THAT OLD BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NWRN U.S. AND
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG JET WILL CUT
THROUGH NW UT AND WESTERN WY...WHILE THE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER NW CO AND NE UT FRI AND SAT. SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UT WILL
SEE AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTH. A TROPICAL STORM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADD
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35
MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE...
KRIL...KTEX AND KMTJ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302121
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE STORM ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS QUICKLY FROM DRY TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WAS BEING PULLED INTO
SE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3
INCHES THERE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q
CONVERGENCE) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FEW MINOR
IMPULSES AND JET SPEED MAXIMA...AS WELL AS A BIT OF VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR...WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW THAT OLD BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW TO NE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WED AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NWRN U.S. AND
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG JET WILL CUT
THROUGH NW UT AND WESTERN WY...WHILE THE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER NW CO AND NE UT FRI AND SAT. SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UT WILL
SEE AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTH. A TROPICAL STORM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ADD
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35
MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE...
KRIL...KTEX AND KMTJ HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHTLY LESS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301716
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1116 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A MID-LEVEL INVERSION
THAT IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE THE SHORT
TERM QPF FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST THAN REALITY. A WEAK PASSING WAVE
IN NE UTAH THIS LATE MORNING SHOWS THAT POTENTIAL ENERGY CAN BE
TAPPED WITH LIGHTNING NOW TRACKING INTO NW COLORADO. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STILL REMAINS DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING AND WIND THAN RAIN
AND THE 12Z MODEL TREND HAS SHOWN THIS SLOWER MOISTENING OF THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THIS EVENING DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED FIRST INTO SE UTAH.
THEN NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES THERE SPREADING
QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q FIELD) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE ONSET...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH BEST FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MONDAY
NIGHT AS 45-50 KT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO NEAR 0.60 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLORADO/S DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND...THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...IN TURN...WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MARKING AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED WITH CIGS ABV ILS BREAK
POINTS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 23Z...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 35 MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS.
KASE...KEGE AND KRIL FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/MON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301716
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1116 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION SHOW A MID-LEVEL INVERSION
THAT IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE THE SHORT
TERM QPF FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST THAN REALITY. A WEAK PASSING WAVE
IN NE UTAH THIS LATE MORNING SHOWS THAT POTENTIAL ENERGY CAN BE
TAPPED WITH LIGHTNING NOW TRACKING INTO NW COLORADO. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STILL REMAINS DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING AND WIND THAN RAIN
AND THE 12Z MODEL TREND HAS SHOWN THIS SLOWER MOISTENING OF THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THIS EVENING DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED FIRST INTO SE UTAH.
THEN NAM SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.3 INCHES THERE SPREADING
QUICKLY INTO NE UT-NW CO THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE MOST THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE. STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE NE AT 20-25 MPH FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS. SOME FORCING (DIV Q FIELD) SEEN ACROSS NE UT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW COLORADO LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE ONSET...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH BEST FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MONDAY
NIGHT AS 45-50 KT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO NEAR 0.60 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLORADO/S DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND...THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...IN TURN...WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MARKING AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED WITH CIGS ABV ILS BREAK
POINTS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 23Z...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 35 MPH OR MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS.
KASE...KEGE AND KRIL FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS
BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT PERIODS FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/MON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL/JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301046
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE ONSET...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH BEST FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MONDAY
NIGHT AS 45-50 KT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO NEAR 0.60 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLORADO/S DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND...THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...IN TURN...WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MARKING AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE POOLED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME WARMING
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS
INITIALLY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AFTER 18Z...BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z. STORMS WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 23Z...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH OR
MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL
FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT
PERIODS FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A PERTURBED STATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301046
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE ONSET...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH BEST FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MONDAY
NIGHT AS 45-50 KT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO NEAR 0.60 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLORADO/S DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND...THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...IN TURN...WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MARKING AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE POOLED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME WARMING
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS
INITIALLY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AFTER 18Z...BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z. STORMS WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 23Z...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH OR
MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL
FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT
PERIODS FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A PERTURBED STATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301046
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE ONSET...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH BEST FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MONDAY
NIGHT AS 45-50 KT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO NEAR 0.60 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLORADO/S DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND...THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...IN TURN...WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MARKING AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE POOLED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME WARMING
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS
INITIALLY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AFTER 18Z...BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z. STORMS WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 23Z...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH OR
MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL
FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT
PERIODS FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A PERTURBED STATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301046
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE ONSET...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH BEST FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MONDAY
NIGHT AS 45-50 KT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO NEAR 0.60 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLORADO/S DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND...THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...IN TURN...WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MARKING AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE POOLED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME WARMING
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS
INITIALLY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AFTER 18Z...BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z. STORMS WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 23Z...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH OR
MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL
FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT
PERIODS FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A PERTURBED STATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300531
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300531
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300531
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300531
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292325
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292325
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292325
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292325
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM WEST FROM ABOUT 16Z ONWARDS.
CONVECTION WILL START FIRING AROUND 20 TO 21Z WITH MANY TAF SITES
LIKELY SEEING VCTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ILS BREAKPOINTS TO BE MET BUT IF THEY
DO...THEY WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES UNDER STRONGER CELLS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 19Z TO 02Z ISOLD TSTMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTS FROM KTEX EAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL CO ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND KCCU...KASE AND NORTHEAST OF KGUC. BRIEF
SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW WIND GUST TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL AROUND OVER SOUTHERN CO NEAR DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY UP TOWARD ASPEN
AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SOUTH OVER NM. SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NE UT WILL TUG HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR NORTH OVER OUR
AREA. SHOULD SEE A JUMP OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH. WHILE NOT THE
WETTEST WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER IT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEIR THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND STEERING FLOW PICKS UP
SUNDAY...SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY WILL STALL OUT/DECAY NEAR THE WY BORDER MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUES DROP FROM SUNDAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 0.50 INCH NORTH TO 0.75 INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MORE UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN...FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROBABLY MORE IN COLORADO THAN EASTERN UT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANGLED FROM NM TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS USUAL THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST TROUGH.
WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NEED
TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE LITTLE DAY TO DAY AND BE GENERALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 19Z TO 02Z ISOLD TSTMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTS FROM KTEX EAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL CO ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND KCCU...KASE AND NORTHEAST OF KGUC. BRIEF
SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW WIND GUST TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 19Z TO 02Z ISOLD TSTMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTS FROM KTEX EAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL CO ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND KCCU...KASE AND NORTHEAST OF KGUC. BRIEF
SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW WIND GUST TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 19Z TO 02Z ISOLD TSTMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTS FROM KTEX EAST AND OVER THE CENTRAL CO ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND KCCU...KASE AND NORTHEAST OF KGUC. BRIEF
SHOWERS AND OUTFLOW WIND GUST TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. MOISTURE DELIVERED
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME WARMING WITH THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR REASONS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL FROM TODAY/S ACTIVITY AS
STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS
IN THE VICINITY COULD GENERATE UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. EXPECT STORMS TO GO TO BED BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. MOISTURE DELIVERED
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME WARMING WITH THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR REASONS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL FROM TODAY/S ACTIVITY AS
STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS
IN THE VICINITY COULD GENERATE UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. EXPECT STORMS TO GO TO BED BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. MOISTURE DELIVERED
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME WARMING WITH THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR REASONS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL FROM TODAY/S ACTIVITY AS
STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS
IN THE VICINITY COULD GENERATE UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. EXPECT STORMS TO GO TO BED BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. MOISTURE DELIVERED
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME WARMING WITH THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR REASONS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL FROM TODAY/S ACTIVITY AS
STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS
IN THE VICINITY COULD GENERATE UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. EXPECT STORMS TO GO TO BED BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290441
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1041 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RATHER MUNDANE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE...HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HAVE EJECTED
OFF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
SAT. DUE TO THIS WEAK FRONT...UPPER SUPPORT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE WEAKENED FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND
EVEN INTO TUE. IN ADDITION SOME JET ENERGY...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE DELIVERED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DAYTIME WARMING WITH THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FAVORED
FOR REASONS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO
SEE RAINFALL FROM TODAY/S ACTIVITY AS STORMS WILL LARGELY BE
ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN THE VICINITY
COULD GENERATE UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. EXPECT
STORMS TO GO TO BED BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290441
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1041 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RATHER MUNDANE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE...HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HAVE EJECTED
OFF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
SAT. DUE TO THIS WEAK FRONT...UPPER SUPPORT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE WEAKENED FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND
EVEN INTO TUE. IN ADDITION SOME JET ENERGY...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY. MOISTURE DELIVERED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DAYTIME WARMING WITH THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FAVORED
FOR REASONS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO
SEE RAINFALL FROM TODAY/S ACTIVITY AS STORMS WILL LARGELY BE
ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN THE VICINITY
COULD GENERATE UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. EXPECT
STORMS TO GO TO BED BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282114
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RATHER MUNDANE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE...HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HAVE EJECTED
OFF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
SAT. DUE TO THIS WEAK FRONT...UPPER SUPPORT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE WEAKENED FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND
EVEN INTO TUE. IN ADDITION SOME JET ENERGY...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EXTREME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE SAN JUANS THROUGH AROUND 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER NO TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. OUTFLOW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY AT KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX FROM NEARBY
CONVECTION. TYPICAL DIURNALLY DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY INDUCED WINDS
WILL STEER THE FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282114
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RATHER MUNDANE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO SAT AND
SAT NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE...HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HAVE EJECTED
OFF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
SAT. DUE TO THIS WEAK FRONT...UPPER SUPPORT AND INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PEAK DURING THE
EVENING AS THE WEAKENED FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND
EVEN INTO TUE. IN ADDITION SOME JET ENERGY...ALBEIT ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EXTREME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE SAN JUANS THROUGH AROUND 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER NO TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. OUTFLOW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY AT KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX FROM NEARBY
CONVECTION. TYPICAL DIURNALLY DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY INDUCED WINDS
WILL STEER THE FLOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM





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