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000
FXUS65 KGJT 221109
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
509 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A BRIEF CLEARING BAND WILL MOVE
OVER WESTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING. THIS SECOND BAND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH...AND A JET STREAK PASSING OVER NE UT AND NW CO. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE OVER NW CO BEFORE 10 AM...THEN THE MAIN 500 MB
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND ABOUT 22Z. WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA...AND
THE UPPER FEATURES MOVING THROUGH...BELIEVE CLEAR AREAS WILL
FORM...BUT RESULTANT SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE KEPT THE CHC OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON THE
HIGH SIDE FOR MOST OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL CO.

OVER SW CO THIS MORNING THE LAST OF MONSOON RELATED MOISTURE WILL
AFFECT THE SAN JUAN MTS AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS UNTIL ABOUT 9 AM MDT...THEN AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE
WEST...CLEARER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER SE UTAH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALONG WITH 2
AREAL FLOOD ADVYS...THROUGH MID MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ARCING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRUSH NORTHERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF OUR CWA BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN
THE FLOW VEERING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP SOME
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO MOIST UPGLIDE BUT SEEMS TO
BE THE ODD MAN OUT SO HAVE LOW POPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. SUBSIDENT FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE PROMISES DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH BACK TO OR EXCEED NORMALS.

&&

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA AND AGAIN EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING A LARGER DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURE
WITH LOWS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAYS PAST AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING UP A FEW DEGREES OVER TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE DRY BUT THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
INLAND OVER WA...OR...AND NORTHERN CA. THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS STRONG PACIFIC STORM MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY FASTER...AS
IT KEEPS THIS STORM AS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500 MB UNTIL IT REACHES
KBOI ON SAT AT 18Z. THE GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A
GOOD LINE OF PRECIP ACCOMPANYING IT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AS
IT DEVELOPS A DEEPER CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CA COAST SAT
MORNING...AND STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER NRN CA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE
EC`S COLD FRONT DOESN`T PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON... 24 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS PROJECTION.

THIS ALL LEADS TO GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH THROUGH THE DIVERSITY OF
SOLUTIONS THERE IS CONSENSUS THE A SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC STORM WILL
AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE SAT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...AND IN SOME CASES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND
GUSTY AND UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL EMANATE FROM
THE STRONGER CELLS.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...CC/15
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221109
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
509 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A BRIEF CLEARING BAND WILL MOVE
OVER WESTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING. THIS SECOND BAND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH...AND A JET STREAK PASSING OVER NE UT AND NW CO. THESE
FEATURES WILL MOVE OVER NW CO BEFORE 10 AM...THEN THE MAIN 500 MB
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND ABOUT 22Z. WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA...AND
THE UPPER FEATURES MOVING THROUGH...BELIEVE CLEAR AREAS WILL
FORM...BUT RESULTANT SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE KEPT THE CHC OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON THE
HIGH SIDE FOR MOST OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL CO.

OVER SW CO THIS MORNING THE LAST OF MONSOON RELATED MOISTURE WILL
AFFECT THE SAN JUAN MTS AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS UNTIL ABOUT 9 AM MDT...THEN AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE
WEST...CLEARER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER SE UTAH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ALONG WITH 2
AREAL FLOOD ADVYS...THROUGH MID MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ARCING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRUSH NORTHERN COLORADO DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF OUR CWA BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN
THE FLOW VEERING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP SOME
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO MOIST UPGLIDE BUT SEEMS TO
BE THE ODD MAN OUT SO HAVE LOW POPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. SUBSIDENT FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE PROMISES DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH BACK TO OR EXCEED NORMALS.

&&

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA AND AGAIN EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING A LARGER DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURE
WITH LOWS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAYS PAST AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY PUSHING UP A FEW DEGREES OVER TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE DRY BUT THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
INLAND OVER WA...OR...AND NORTHERN CA. THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS STRONG PACIFIC STORM MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY FASTER...AS
IT KEEPS THIS STORM AS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500 MB UNTIL IT REACHES
KBOI ON SAT AT 18Z. THE GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A
GOOD LINE OF PRECIP ACCOMPANYING IT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AS
IT DEVELOPS A DEEPER CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CA COAST SAT
MORNING...AND STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER NRN CA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE
EC`S COLD FRONT DOESN`T PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON... 24 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS PROJECTION.

THIS ALL LEADS TO GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH THROUGH THE DIVERSITY OF
SOLUTIONS THERE IS CONSENSUS THE A SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC STORM WILL
AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE SAT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...AND IN SOME CASES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND
GUSTY AND UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL EMANATE FROM
THE STRONGER CELLS.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...CC/15
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220424
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1024 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SOUTHWEST LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS NV TODAY...AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ID BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THIS MORNING`S AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF MORE INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENERGETIC BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. FOR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE NOSE OF A SPEED ROTATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH TODAY...AND POINTED RIGHT AT EAST CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE BAND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... AND
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL CREATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS DUE TO
THEIR SPEED...BUT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE NAM PEGGED THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO LAST
NIGHT...WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN AND AROUND DURANGO. FOR
TONIGHT...SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE AGAIN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED GOOD QPF WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE 4-CORNERS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED IN THE THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT
AREA IS STILL ON TRACK. OF NOTE...SNOW WAS REPORTED ABOVE AROUND
10-11K FT IN THE SAN JUANS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND UINTAS OF NORTHEAST UTAH SHOULD SEE A
DUSTING BY MORNING.

BY EARLY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER WEST FLOW...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST TO EAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS THAT AREA IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. SO ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THERE LONGEST. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB FIVE OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS
LATE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITS ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY IN THE GFS OR SATURDAY IN THE EC. BOTH MODELS CLOSE THIS
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING A
FASTER PROGRESSION INLAND. BOTH MODELS PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...STARTING FRIDAY IN THE GFS AND SATURDAY
IN THE EC. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A STRONGER COLD CORE
THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-2C WOULD THREATEN SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET. BUT ALL
STORM DETAILS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY...AND IN SOME CASES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVY RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND GUSTY AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL EMANATE FROM THE
STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER WYOMING ON MONDAY...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION CAUSING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 220424
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1024 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SOUTHWEST LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS NV TODAY...AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ID BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THIS MORNING`S AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF MORE INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENERGETIC BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. FOR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE NOSE OF A SPEED ROTATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH TODAY...AND POINTED RIGHT AT EAST CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE BAND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... AND
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL CREATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS DUE TO
THEIR SPEED...BUT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE NAM PEGGED THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO LAST
NIGHT...WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN AND AROUND DURANGO. FOR
TONIGHT...SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE AGAIN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED GOOD QPF WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE 4-CORNERS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED IN THE THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT
AREA IS STILL ON TRACK. OF NOTE...SNOW WAS REPORTED ABOVE AROUND
10-11K FT IN THE SAN JUANS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND UINTAS OF NORTHEAST UTAH SHOULD SEE A
DUSTING BY MORNING.

BY EARLY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER WEST FLOW...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST TO EAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS THAT AREA IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. SO ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THERE LONGEST. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB FIVE OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS
LATE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITS ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY IN THE GFS OR SATURDAY IN THE EC. BOTH MODELS CLOSE THIS
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING A
FASTER PROGRESSION INLAND. BOTH MODELS PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...STARTING FRIDAY IN THE GFS AND SATURDAY
IN THE EC. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A STRONGER COLD CORE
THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-2C WOULD THREATEN SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET. BUT ALL
STORM DETAILS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY...AND IN SOME CASES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVY RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND GUSTY AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL EMANATE FROM THE
STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER WYOMING ON MONDAY...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION CAUSING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212239
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SOUTHWEST LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS NV TODAY...AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ID BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THIS MORNING`S AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF MORE INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENERGETIC BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. FOR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE NOSE OF A SPEED ROTATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH TODAY...AND POINTED RIGHT AT EAST CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE BAND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... AND
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL CREATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS DUE TO
THEIR SPEED...BUT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE NAM PEGGED THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO LAST
NIGHT...WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN AND AROUND DURANGO. FOR
TONIGHT...SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE AGAIN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED GOOD QPF WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE 4-CORNERS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED IN THE THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT
AREA IS STILL ON TRACK. OF NOTE...SNOW WAS REPORTED ABOVE AROUND
10-11K FT IN THE SAN JUANS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND UINTAS OF NORTHEAST UTAH SHOULD SEE A
DUSTING BY MORNING.

BY EARLY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER WEST FLOW...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST TO EAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS THAT AREA IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. SO ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THERE LONGEST. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB FIVE OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS
LATE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITS ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY IN THE GFS OR SATURDAY IN THE EC. BOTH MODELS CLOSE THIS
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING A
FASTER PROGRESSION INLAND. BOTH MODELS PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...STARTING FRIDAY IN THE GFS AND SATURDAY
IN THE EC. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A STRONGER COLD CORE
THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-2C WOULD THREATEN SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET. BUT ALL
STORM DETAILS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY...AND IN SOME CASES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVY RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND GUSTY AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL EMANATE FROM THE
STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER WYOMING ON MONDAY...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION CAUSING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212239
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SOUTHWEST LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS NV TODAY...AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ID BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THIS MORNING`S AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF MORE INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENERGETIC BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. FOR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE NOSE OF A SPEED ROTATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH TODAY...AND POINTED RIGHT AT EAST CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE BAND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... AND
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL CREATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS DUE TO
THEIR SPEED...BUT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE NAM PEGGED THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO LAST
NIGHT...WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN AND AROUND DURANGO. FOR
TONIGHT...SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE AGAIN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED GOOD QPF WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE 4-CORNERS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED IN THE THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT
AREA IS STILL ON TRACK. OF NOTE...SNOW WAS REPORTED ABOVE AROUND
10-11K FT IN THE SAN JUANS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND UINTAS OF NORTHEAST UTAH SHOULD SEE A
DUSTING BY MORNING.

BY EARLY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER WEST FLOW...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST TO EAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS THAT AREA IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. SO ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THERE LONGEST. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB FIVE OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS
LATE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITS ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY IN THE GFS OR SATURDAY IN THE EC. BOTH MODELS CLOSE THIS
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING A
FASTER PROGRESSION INLAND. BOTH MODELS PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...STARTING FRIDAY IN THE GFS AND SATURDAY
IN THE EC. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A STRONGER COLD CORE
THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-2C WOULD THREATEN SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET. BUT ALL
STORM DETAILS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY...AND IN SOME CASES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVY RAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND GUSTY AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL EMANATE FROM THE
STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LOW LIFTS OVER WYOMING ON MONDAY...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION CAUSING SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SOUTHWEST LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS NV TODAY...AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ID BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THIS MORNING`S AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF MORE INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENERGETIC BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. FOR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE NOSE OF A SPEED ROTATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH TODAY...AND POINTED RIGHT AT EAST CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE BAND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... AND
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL CREATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS DUE TO
THEIR SPEED...BUT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE NAM PEGGED THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO LAST
NIGHT...WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN AND AROUND DURANGO. FOR
TONIGHT...SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE AGAIN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED GOOD QPF WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE 4-CORNERS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED IN THE THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT
AREA IS STILL ON TRACK. OF NOTE...SNOW WAS REPORTED ABOVE AROUND
10-11K FT IN THE SAN JUANS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND UINTAS OF NORTHEAST UTAH SHOULD SEE A
DUSTING BY MORNING.

BY EARLY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER WEST FLOW...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST TO EAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS THAT AREA IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. SO ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THERE LONGEST. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB FIVE OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS
LATE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITS ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY IN THE GFS OR SATURDAY IN THE EC. BOTH MODELS CLOSE THIS
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING A
FASTER PROGRESSION INLAND. BOTH MODELS PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...STARTING FRIDAY IN THE GFS AND SATURDAY
IN THE EC. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A STRONGER COLD CORE
THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-2C WOULD THREATEN SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET. BUT ALL
STORM DETAILS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A LARGE BAND OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS BAND
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD ALLOW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
SO VCTS AND VCSH INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS. HEAVY RAIN AND OCCNL GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH KDRO...KTEX...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS KASE AND KEGE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE
OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
15Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212139
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE SOUTHWEST LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS NV TODAY...AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ID BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THIS MORNING`S AREA OF SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OF MORE INTEREST...ONE SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENERGETIC BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL UTAH. FOR
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE NOSE OF A SPEED ROTATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH TODAY...AND POINTED RIGHT AT EAST CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE BAND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
45 MPH. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... AND
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL CREATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RUNOFF PROBLEMS DUE TO
THEIR SPEED...BUT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH.

THE NAM PEGGED THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO LAST
NIGHT...WHERE FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN AND AROUND DURANGO. FOR
TONIGHT...SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE AGAIN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED GOOD QPF WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE 4-CORNERS AT MIDNIGHT...WITH A
CONTINUED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED IN THE THIS AREA...ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT
AREA IS STILL ON TRACK. OF NOTE...SNOW WAS REPORTED ABOVE AROUND
10-11K FT IN THE SAN JUANS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...AND UINTAS OF NORTHEAST UTAH SHOULD SEE A
DUSTING BY MORNING.

BY EARLY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN WY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER WEST FLOW...WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST TO EAST. THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS THAT AREA IS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. SO ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THERE LONGEST. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB FIVE OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS
LATE THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITS ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY IN THE GFS OR SATURDAY IN THE EC. BOTH MODELS CLOSE THIS
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING A
FASTER PROGRESSION INLAND. BOTH MODELS PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...STARTING FRIDAY IN THE GFS AND SATURDAY
IN THE EC. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO HAVE A STRONGER COLD CORE
THAN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. 700MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-2C WOULD THREATEN SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET. BUT ALL
STORM DETAILS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A LARGE BAND OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS BAND
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD ALLOW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
SO VCTS AND VCSH INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS. HEAVY RAIN AND OCCNL GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH KDRO...KTEX...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS KASE AND KEGE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE
OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
15Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211738
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1138 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS...AND THE DURANGO AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AFTER ASSESSING THE FLOODING THAT TOOK PLACE IN THE
DURANGO AREA LAST NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
FROM THE MANCOS RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA. FEEL
THAT EVEN MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...OR WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO TODAYS FORECAST TO
ADD SOME SPACIAL DETAILS. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE NORTH SHOULD SEE THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BREAK OF SORTS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEVADA AND ALLOW
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MODEL FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE DURANGO AREA WITH
RADAR UNDERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS RANGE. EXPECT
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMBINES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPWARD MOTION CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED FROM A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE OF THE LOW AND AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE DYNAMIC TROP
LEVEL LOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET. POPS SEEMED WELL HANDLED
AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRYING
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONVECTION STILL LIKELY TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BE LIMITED TO
THE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE WAVE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT STILL END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR AND HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING BACK
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS CURRENTLY IS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE
NORTH WITH TRACK THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO KEEP
TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A LARGE BAND OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS BAND
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD ALLOW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
SO VCTS AND VCSH INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS. HEAVY RAIN AND OCCNL GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH KDRO...KTEX...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS KASE AND KEGE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE
OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
15Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...MPM/15
LONG TERM...15/MPM
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211738
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1138 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS...AND THE DURANGO AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AFTER ASSESSING THE FLOODING THAT TOOK PLACE IN THE
DURANGO AREA LAST NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
FROM THE MANCOS RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA. FEEL
THAT EVEN MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...OR WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO TODAYS FORECAST TO
ADD SOME SPACIAL DETAILS. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE NORTH SHOULD SEE THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BREAK OF SORTS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEVADA AND ALLOW
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MODEL FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE DURANGO AREA WITH
RADAR UNDERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS RANGE. EXPECT
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMBINES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPWARD MOTION CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED FROM A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE OF THE LOW AND AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE DYNAMIC TROP
LEVEL LOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET. POPS SEEMED WELL HANDLED
AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRYING
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONVECTION STILL LIKELY TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BE LIMITED TO
THE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE WAVE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT STILL END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR AND HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING BACK
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS CURRENTLY IS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE
NORTH WITH TRACK THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO KEEP
TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A LARGE BAND OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE NERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS BAND
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD ALLOW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
SO VCTS AND VCSH INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS. HEAVY RAIN AND OCCNL GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH KDRO...KTEX...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS KASE AND KEGE WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE
OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
15Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...MPM/15
LONG TERM...15/MPM
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211627
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1027 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS...AND THE DURANGO AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AFTER ASSESSING THE FLOODING THAT TOOK PLACE IN THE
DURANGO AREA LAST NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
FROM THE MANCOS RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA. FEEL
THAT EVEN MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...OR WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO TODAYS FORECAST TO
ADD SOME SPACIAL DETAILS. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE NORTH SHOULD SEE THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BREAK OF SORTS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEVADA AND ALLOW
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MODEL FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE DURANGO AREA WITH
RADAR UNDERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS RANGE. EXPECT
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMBINES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPWARD MOTION CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED FROM A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE OF THE LOW AND AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE DYNAMIC TROP
LEVEL LOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET. POPS SEEMED WELL HANDLED
AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRYING
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONVECTION STILL LIKELY TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BE LIMITED TO
THE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE WAVE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT STILL END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR AND HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING BACK
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS CURRENTLY IS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE
NORTH WITH TRACK THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO KEEP
TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BLO 040 WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND ALL TAF
SITES CAN EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...MPM/15
LONG TERM...15/MPM
AVIATION...MPM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211627
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1027 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER GOOD SURGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS...AND THE DURANGO AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AFTER ASSESSING THE FLOODING THAT TOOK PLACE IN THE
DURANGO AREA LAST NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUANS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
FROM THE MANCOS RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA. FEEL
THAT EVEN MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...OR WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO TODAYS FORECAST TO
ADD SOME SPACIAL DETAILS. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE NORTH SHOULD SEE THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BREAK OF SORTS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEVADA AND ALLOW
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MODEL FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE DURANGO AREA WITH
RADAR UNDERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS RANGE. EXPECT
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMBINES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPWARD MOTION CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED FROM A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE OF THE LOW AND AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE DYNAMIC TROP
LEVEL LOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET. POPS SEEMED WELL HANDLED
AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRYING
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONVECTION STILL LIKELY TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BE LIMITED TO
THE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE WAVE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT STILL END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR AND HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING BACK
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS CURRENTLY IS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE
NORTH WITH TRACK THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO KEEP
TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BLO 040 WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND ALL TAF
SITES CAN EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 10Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...MPM/15
LONG TERM...15/MPM
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEVADA AND ALLOW
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MODEL FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE DURANGO AREA WITH
RADAR UNDERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS RANGE. EXPECT
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMBINES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPWARD MOTION CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED FROM A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE OF THE LOW AND AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE DYNAMIC TROP
LEVEL LOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET. POPS SEEMED WELL HANDLED
AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRYING
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONVECTION STILL LIKELY TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BE LIMITED TO
THE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE WAVE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT STILL END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR AND HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING BACK
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS CURRENTLY IS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE
NORTH WITH TRACK THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO KEEP
TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BLO 040 WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND ALL TAF
SITES CAN EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 10Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM/15
LONG TERM...15/MPM
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEVADA AND ALLOW
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MODEL FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE DURANGO AREA WITH
RADAR UNDERESTIMATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS RANGE. EXPECT
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COMBINES WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE UPWARD MOTION CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED FROM A JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE OF THE LOW AND AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE DYNAMIC TROP
LEVEL LOWERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET. POPS SEEMED WELL HANDLED
AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRYING
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
CONVECTION STILL LIKELY TO POP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT BE LIMITED TO
THE TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE WAVE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT STILL END UP CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THIS
PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR AND HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING BACK
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GFS CURRENTLY IS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE
NORTH WITH TRACK THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SO KEEP
TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM AND CEILINGS AT OR BLO 040 WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND ALL TAF
SITES CAN EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 10Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM/15
LONG TERM...15/MPM
AVIATION...MPM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 210433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGRESSING INLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO MOIST S-SW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SOME STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH NV WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSHING TOWARDS NE UTAH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR IN NE UTAH LATE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND JET FORCING OVER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STORM MOTION TO THE NE AT 20-25 KTS WILL
LIMIT RUNOFF PROBLEMS EXCEPT WHERE MULTIPLE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST-WARD ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE MORNING...WITH A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST UT AND
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SHIFT EAST...SPREADING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS THEN DEVELOP A
LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. WHILE BOTH OF THESE MODELS INDICATE A SPLITTING TENDENCY
FOR THE WESTERN TROUGH...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN LOW PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
VERY LARGE AND BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEEK`S END. IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE
COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE WEEK CARRIED BY A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS DOWN TO 4SM AND CIG AT OR BLO 040 WELL INTO
THE EVENING. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND ALL TAF SITES
FACE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM 18Z TO 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGRESSING INLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO MOIST S-SW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SOME STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH NV WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSHING TOWARDS NE UTAH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR IN NE UTAH LATE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND JET FORCING OVER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STORM MOTION TO THE NE AT 20-25 KTS WILL
LIMIT RUNOFF PROBLEMS EXCEPT WHERE MULTIPLE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST-WARD ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE MORNING...WITH A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST UT AND
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SHIFT EAST...SPREADING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS THEN DEVELOP A
LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. WHILE BOTH OF THESE MODELS INDICATE A SPLITTING TENDENCY
FOR THE WESTERN TROUGH...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN LOW PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
VERY LARGE AND BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEEK`S END. IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE
COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE WEEK CARRIED BY A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST UTAH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS DOWN TO 4SM AND CIG AT OR BLO 040 WELL INTO
THE EVENING. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES AND ALL TAF SITES
FACE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM 18Z TO 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 202040
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGRESSING INLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO MOIST S-SW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SOME STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH NV WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSHING TOWARDS NE UTAH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR IN NE UTAH LATE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND JET FORCING OVER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STORM MOTION TO THE NE AT 20-25 KTS WILL
LIMIT RUNOFF PROBLEMS EXCEPT WHERE MULTIPLE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST-WARD ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE MORNING...WITH A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST UT AND
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SHIFT EAST...SPREADING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS THEN DEVELOP A
LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. WHILE BOTH OF THESE MODELS INDICATE A SPLITTING TENDENCY
FOR THE WESTERN TROUGH...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN LOW PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
VERY LARGE AND BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEEK`S END. IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE
COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE WEEK CARRIED BY A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX. AFTER 03Z...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UT.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
KDRO AND KTEX THROUGH 06Z. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS DOWN
TO 4SM AND CIG AT OR BLO 040. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202040
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGRESSING INLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO MOIST S-SW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SOME STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH NV WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSHING TOWARDS NE UTAH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR IN NE UTAH LATE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND JET FORCING OVER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STORM MOTION TO THE NE AT 20-25 KTS WILL
LIMIT RUNOFF PROBLEMS EXCEPT WHERE MULTIPLE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST-WARD ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING INTO MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.
HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY
LATE MORNING...WITH A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST UT AND
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AND SHIFT EAST...SPREADING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS THEN DEVELOP A
LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. WHILE BOTH OF THESE MODELS INDICATE A SPLITTING TENDENCY
FOR THE WESTERN TROUGH...THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN LOW PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
VERY LARGE AND BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEEK`S END. IN EITHER CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE
COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE WEEK CARRIED BY A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX. AFTER 03Z...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UT.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
KDRO AND KTEX THROUGH 06Z. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS DOWN
TO 4SM AND CIG AT OR BLO 040. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 201713
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE MORNING MODELS YIELD NO SURPRISES. NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED
UP AGAIN IN THIS MODEL RUN. THE TRANSIENT RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OF TEMPERATURES OR
DEWPOINTS. THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
BEGINNING TO KICK INLAND AND WILL BRING A INCREASING SHOWERS
STARTING TONIGHT. ITS UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING IS EVIDENT IN
SOUTHERN NV WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE VENTING THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COLORADO EASTERN
MTNS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND THE SE UTAH MTNS WITH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING ELSEWHERE.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO MOIST SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO. THE NAM ROTATES FROM SSE TO NNW SOME DISTURBANCE
THAT IS PRODUCING ENHANCED PRECIP OVER THE SAN JUANS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE GFS AND SHORTER TERM MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE
THIS FEATURE. STILL SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO THROUGH THE NIGHT

SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH NV WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSHING TOWARDS NE UTAH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR IN NE UTAH LATE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND JET FORCING OVER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STORM MOTION TO THE NE AT 20-25 KTS WILL
LIMIT RUNOFF PROBLEMS EXCEPT WHERE MULTIPLE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION. WE WILL ISSUE AN NON-SPECIFIC SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HANDLE THIS CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN.

THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH WYOMING ON MONDAY. JET STREAK
WEAKENS BUT PERSISTS OVER NW CO SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. MOISTURE
ERODES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH MONDAY STORMS AND
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND OVER
SRN AND CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS STORM WILL HELP THE RIDGE TO
FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
RESULTING INCREASE IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SW
CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SHOW THE PWAT
INCREASING TO OVER 0.75 INCHES AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING TO
INCREASE THEREAFTER. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CA TONIGHT AND
CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. MOISTENING ISENTROPIC UPLIFT IN SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE
UT/SW CO LATE TONIGHT. THIS CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME BRIEF CLEARING MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY PER THE 315K/320K ISENTROPIC
HUMIDITY FIELDS...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
WEAKENING 300 MB JET MAX SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FILL IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SE
ID/NW UT. THE WEAKENING UPPER JET SLIPS OVER SE UT/SW CO...WHILE A
500 MB VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS ACROSS NE UT/NW CO. THE LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY BETTER DYNAMICS. BEST
COMBINATION OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MUCAPE IS SHOWN SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH SUNDAY EVENING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ALSO IN THE MIX.

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO WESTERLY ON MONDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WY. THIS SHOULD PULL IN SOME DRIER AIR
CONFINING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY THE NORTH. TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF CO
TUE MORNING WITH NW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND REMNANT MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS. BY TUE
AFTERNOON MOST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA AS MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY.

A BIG RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN U.S. TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON THIS BEING A TRANSITION PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS
PROJECTED TO ERODE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING STAND-UP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL UT FRIDAY...AND APPROACH
EASTERN UT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...A STRONG JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF
UT. THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY
OF KTEX AFTER ABOUT 21Z. AFTER 03Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UT. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AT KDRO AND KTEX
THROUGH 06Z. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS DOWN TO
4SM AND CIG AT OR BLO 040.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...CC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/CC
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 201713
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1113 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE MORNING MODELS YIELD NO SURPRISES. NAM MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED
UP AGAIN IN THIS MODEL RUN. THE TRANSIENT RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OF TEMPERATURES OR
DEWPOINTS. THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
BEGINNING TO KICK INLAND AND WILL BRING A INCREASING SHOWERS
STARTING TONIGHT. ITS UPPER DIVERGENCE FORCING IS EVIDENT IN
SOUTHERN NV WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE VENTING THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COLORADO EASTERN
MTNS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND THE SE UTAH MTNS WITH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING ELSEWHERE.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO MOIST SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.1 INCHES THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO. THE NAM ROTATES FROM SSE TO NNW SOME DISTURBANCE
THAT IS PRODUCING ENHANCED PRECIP OVER THE SAN JUANS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE GFS AND SHORTER TERM MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE
THIS FEATURE. STILL SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GO THROUGH THE NIGHT

SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THROUGH NV WITH ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK PUSHING TOWARDS NE UTAH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR IN NE UTAH LATE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND JET FORCING OVER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STORM MOTION TO THE NE AT 20-25 KTS WILL
LIMIT RUNOFF PROBLEMS EXCEPT WHERE MULTIPLE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION. WE WILL ISSUE AN NON-SPECIFIC SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HANDLE THIS CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN.

THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH WYOMING ON MONDAY. JET STREAK
WEAKENS BUT PERSISTS OVER NW CO SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. MOISTURE
ERODES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH MONDAY STORMS AND
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND OVER
SRN AND CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS STORM WILL HELP THE RIDGE TO
FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
RESULTING INCREASE IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SW
CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SHOW THE PWAT
INCREASING TO OVER 0.75 INCHES AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING TO
INCREASE THEREAFTER. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CA TONIGHT AND
CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. MOISTENING ISENTROPIC UPLIFT IN SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE
UT/SW CO LATE TONIGHT. THIS CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME BRIEF CLEARING MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY PER THE 315K/320K ISENTROPIC
HUMIDITY FIELDS...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
WEAKENING 300 MB JET MAX SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FILL IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SE
ID/NW UT. THE WEAKENING UPPER JET SLIPS OVER SE UT/SW CO...WHILE A
500 MB VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS ACROSS NE UT/NW CO. THE LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY BETTER DYNAMICS. BEST
COMBINATION OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MUCAPE IS SHOWN SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH SUNDAY EVENING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ALSO IN THE MIX.

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO WESTERLY ON MONDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WY. THIS SHOULD PULL IN SOME DRIER AIR
CONFINING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY THE NORTH. TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF CO
TUE MORNING WITH NW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND REMNANT MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS. BY TUE
AFTERNOON MOST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA AS MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY.

A BIG RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN U.S. TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON THIS BEING A TRANSITION PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS
PROJECTED TO ERODE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING STAND-UP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL UT FRIDAY...AND APPROACH
EASTERN UT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...A STRONG JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF
UT. THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY
OF KTEX AFTER ABOUT 21Z. AFTER 03Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UT. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AT KDRO AND KTEX
THROUGH 06Z. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS DOWN TO
4SM AND CIG AT OR BLO 040.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...CC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/CC
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 200958
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND OVER
SRN AND CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS STORM WILL HELP THE RIDGE TO
FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
RESULTING INCREASE IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SW
CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SHOW THE PWAT
INCREASING TO OVER 0.75 INCHES AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING TO
INCREASE THEREAFTER. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CA TONIGHT AND
CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. MOISTENING ISENTROPIC UPLIFT IN SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE
UT/SW CO LATE TONIGHT. THIS CHANCE SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME BRIEF CLEARING MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY PER THE 315K/320K ISENTROPIC
HUMIDITY FIELDS...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A
WEAKENING 300 MB JET MAX SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO FILL IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SE
ID/NW UT. THE WEAKENING UPPER JET SLIPS OVER SE UT/SW CO...WHILE A
500 MB VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS ACROSS NE UT/NW CO. THE LOSS OF HEATING
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY BETTER DYNAMICS. BEST
COMBINATION OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MUCAPE IS SHOWN SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH SUNDAY EVENING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ALSO IN THE MIX.

FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO WESTERLY ON MONDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WY. THIS SHOULD PULL IN SOME DRIER AIR
CONFINING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY THE NORTH. TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF CO
TUE MORNING WITH NW FLOW OVER THE AREA AND REMNANT MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS HUGGING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS. BY TUE
AFTERNOON MOST OF THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA AS MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY.

A BIG RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN U.S. TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON THIS BEING A TRANSITION PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS
PROJECTED TO ERODE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING STAND-UP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL UT FRIDAY...AND APPROACH
EASTERN UT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...A STRONG JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF
UT. THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF KTEX AFTER ABOUT 21Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST CO AND
SOUTHEAST UT AFTER 03Z AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES NORTH FROM AZ AND
NM. THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AT KDRO AND KTEX THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 192350
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED UNIMPRESSIVE CAPE AND SHEAR SO DON/T
EXPECT ANY INTENSIFICATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL
COMPLETELY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MAKING ITS WAY INLAND OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HOVER AROUND
0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO FUEL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES FAVORED.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC LOW
CONTINUES TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SATURDAY/S HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...OR
A ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL-NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM
PRODUCES A STRONG CONVERGENT-DIVERGENT LINEAR COUPLET GENERALLY
ALONG THE UT-CO STATE LINE LATE SUNDAY AS THE JET LIFTS THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH. THE BAROCLINIC FEATURE LAYS OVER ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET WEAKENS INTO EASTERN UTAH.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES FROM 35 TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE POT VORT CENTER THROUGH NE UTAH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
CONTINUED STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70.

MONDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH WYOMING AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WEAKENS OVER NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ERODES
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
COLORADO. SHOWERS ERODE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.

BEGINNING FRIDAY THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH IS HANDLED VERY
DIFFERENTLY BY THE CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE GFS THAT THREATENS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NEW EC MODEL HOWEVER HAS
KEPT THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SW AND LIFTS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW THERE IS A
MENTION OF SPREADING SHOWERS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCAL -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE WRN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY (FROM VAIL
PASS TO MONARCH PASS AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS) WILL END BY 02Z
THIS EVENING. NO OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN. A THUNDERSTORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KTEX LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 192350
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
550 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED UNIMPRESSIVE CAPE AND SHEAR SO DON/T
EXPECT ANY INTENSIFICATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL
COMPLETELY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MAKING ITS WAY INLAND OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HOVER AROUND
0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO FUEL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES FAVORED.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC LOW
CONTINUES TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SATURDAY/S HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...OR
A ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL-NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM
PRODUCES A STRONG CONVERGENT-DIVERGENT LINEAR COUPLET GENERALLY
ALONG THE UT-CO STATE LINE LATE SUNDAY AS THE JET LIFTS THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH. THE BAROCLINIC FEATURE LAYS OVER ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET WEAKENS INTO EASTERN UTAH.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES FROM 35 TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE POT VORT CENTER THROUGH NE UTAH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
CONTINUED STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70.

MONDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH WYOMING AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WEAKENS OVER NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ERODES
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
COLORADO. SHOWERS ERODE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.

BEGINNING FRIDAY THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH IS HANDLED VERY
DIFFERENTLY BY THE CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE GFS THAT THREATENS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NEW EC MODEL HOWEVER HAS
KEPT THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SW AND LIFTS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW THERE IS A
MENTION OF SPREADING SHOWERS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOCAL -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE WRN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY (FROM VAIL
PASS TO MONARCH PASS AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS) WILL END BY 02Z
THIS EVENING. NO OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN. A THUNDERSTORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KTEX LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 192125
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED UNIMPRESSIVE CAPE AND SHEAR SO DON/T
EXPECT ANY INTENSIFICATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL
COMPLETELY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MAKING ITS WAY INLAND OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HOVER AROUND
0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO FUEL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES FAVORED.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC LOW
CONTINUES TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SATURDAY/S HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...OR
A ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL-NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM
PRODUCES A STRONG CONVERGENT-DIVERGENT LINEAR COUPLET GENERALLY
ALONG THE UT-CO STATE LINE LATE SUNDAY AS THE JET LIFTS THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH. THE BAROCLINIC FEATURE LAYS OVER ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET WEAKENS INTO EASTERN UTAH.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES FROM 35 TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE POT VORT CENTER THROUGH NE UTAH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
CONTINUED STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70.

MONDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH WYOMING AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WEAKENS OVER NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ERODES
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
COLORADO. SHOWERS ERODE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.

BEGINNING FRIDAY THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH IS HANDLED VERY
DIFFERENTLY BY THE CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE GFS THAT THREATENS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NEW EC MODEL HOWEVER HAS
KEPT THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SW AND LIFTS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW THERE IS A
MENTION OF SPREADING SHOWERS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES WITH LITTLE IMPACT
EXPECTED FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL OCCUR NEAR STORMS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS EXPECTED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STORMS COLLAPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 192125
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED UNIMPRESSIVE CAPE AND SHEAR SO DON/T
EXPECT ANY INTENSIFICATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL
COMPLETELY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MAKING ITS WAY INLAND OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HOVER AROUND
0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO FUEL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES FAVORED.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC LOW
CONTINUES TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SATURDAY/S HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...OR
A ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL-NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM
PRODUCES A STRONG CONVERGENT-DIVERGENT LINEAR COUPLET GENERALLY
ALONG THE UT-CO STATE LINE LATE SUNDAY AS THE JET LIFTS THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH. THE BAROCLINIC FEATURE LAYS OVER ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET WEAKENS INTO EASTERN UTAH.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES FROM 35 TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE POT VORT CENTER THROUGH NE UTAH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
CONTINUED STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70.

MONDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH WYOMING AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WEAKENS OVER NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ERODES
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
COLORADO. SHOWERS ERODE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.

BEGINNING FRIDAY THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH IS HANDLED VERY
DIFFERENTLY BY THE CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE GFS THAT THREATENS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NEW EC MODEL HOWEVER HAS
KEPT THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SW AND LIFTS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW THERE IS A
MENTION OF SPREADING SHOWERS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES WITH LITTLE IMPACT
EXPECTED FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL OCCUR NEAR STORMS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS EXPECTED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STORMS COLLAPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 191646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH SPARKING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH UP INTO WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT WILL DRAG ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
UTAH WITH ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING. STEERING
FLOW SLACKS OFF THIS AFTERNOON...SO STORMS WILL HUG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY DRIFTING STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.

DAYTIME CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT TROUGH
SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PART REMAINS
JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST AS A CUT-OFF LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHEAR BETWEEN THE TWO DISSIPATES ACROSS NW CO ON SAT AS THE UPPER
HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS SAT AFTERNOON IN LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE SRN CA LOW WORKS INLAND SAT NIGHT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NV
ON SUNDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY.

INCREASING SPEED AND DIRECTION SHEAR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW ACCELERATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
WYOMING. HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHRTWV
ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH ON NOSE OF 50 KT JET MAX IN INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW. SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN AND INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW
SPINNING CELLS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL. TIMING SUGGESTS THE BEST LIFT
ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WOULD DAMPEN SEVERE
POTENTIAL A BIT...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO OUR
LIMITED WINDOW SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IN WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH...OR EARLY FALL.

FLOW SWINGS TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL SHUT DOWN NORTHERN PROGRESS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND IN TURN
DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY
AND LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG WESTERN TROUGH ARRIVES WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND NORTHERN ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ON FRIDAY. VERY INTERESTING
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK AS STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON TAP AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF OCTOBER. MORE ON THAT LATER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOS NUMBERS A GOOD START. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE LOW DRIVING A SFC FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES WITH LITTLE IMPACT
EXPECTED FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL OCCUR NEAR STORMS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS EXPECTED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STORMS COLLAPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/JDC
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 191646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH SPARKING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH UP INTO WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT WILL DRAG ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
UTAH WITH ACTIVITY SLIDING EAST INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING. STEERING
FLOW SLACKS OFF THIS AFTERNOON...SO STORMS WILL HUG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND VALLEY DRIFTING STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.

DAYTIME CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT TROUGH
SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PART REMAINS
JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST AS A CUT-OFF LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHEAR BETWEEN THE TWO DISSIPATES ACROSS NW CO ON SAT AS THE UPPER
HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS SAT AFTERNOON IN LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE SRN CA LOW WORKS INLAND SAT NIGHT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NV
ON SUNDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SUNDAY.

INCREASING SPEED AND DIRECTION SHEAR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LOW ACCELERATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
WYOMING. HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHRTWV
ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH ON NOSE OF 50 KT JET MAX IN INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW. SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN AND INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO COULD ALSO LEAD TO A FEW
SPINNING CELLS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL. TIMING SUGGESTS THE BEST LIFT
ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WOULD DAMPEN SEVERE
POTENTIAL A BIT...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO OUR
LIMITED WINDOW SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IN WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH...OR EARLY FALL.

FLOW SWINGS TO MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL SHUT DOWN NORTHERN PROGRESS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND IN TURN
DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY
AND LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG WESTERN TROUGH ARRIVES WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND NORTHERN ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ON FRIDAY. VERY INTERESTING
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK AS STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON TAP AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF OCTOBER. MORE ON THAT LATER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOS NUMBERS A GOOD START. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH THE LOW DRIVING A SFC FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES WITH LITTLE IMPACT
EXPECTED FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL OCCUR NEAR STORMS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS EXPECTED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STORMS COLLAPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/JDC
AVIATION...NL





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