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000
FXUS65 KGJT 032334
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
534 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RUN WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT NOT BY AS MUCH AS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...WILL UNDERCUT
FORECAST LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY BUT BEARS MENTION...SO HAVE ADDED
TO WEDNESDAY/S FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE REGION APPEARS TO BE HEADED FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FORCING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH
WILL ALSO CARRY MOISTURE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD
SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EASES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY STRENGTHENING THE WIND GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM CENTER SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT AND BELOW 10000 FEET SO ANTICIPATE LIMITED IMPACTS DUE
TO SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH COOLER...WILL BE BUOYED BY CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CROP THREATENING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 032130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RUN WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT NOT BY AS MUCH AS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...WILL UNDERCUT
FORECAST LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY BUT BEARS MENTION...SO HAVE ADDED
TO WEDNESDAY/S FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE REGION APPEARS TO BE HEADED FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FORCING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH
WILL ALSO CARRY MOISTURE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD
SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EASES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY STRENGTHENING THE WIND GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM CENTER SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT AND BELOW 10000 FEET SO ANTICIPATE LIMITED IMPACTS DUE
TO SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH COOLER...WILL BE BUOYED BY CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CROP THREATENING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 031644
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT LONG LAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY HERE. IR SATELLITE SHOT IS
SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH IS A SIGHT FOR SORE EYES. TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP
WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER RIDGES BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY AND LARGE...A NICE SPRING DAY IN
STORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME POP AND DROP
SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NOTHING. FOLLOWED
GFS`S LEAD AND TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR RISE WITH TEMPS REACHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BEEN QUITE A WHILE SINCE WE`VE SAID THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END HOWEVER AND THIS BEGINS
THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO INVADE THE GREAT
BASIN. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA...ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT THURSDAY EVENING AS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FORM OVER THE DIVIDE THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON
FRIDAY...PRECIP BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD BUT STILL MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REINFORCED BY THE JET STREAM
ALOFT. WHILE THE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS TIGHT...THE JET IS NOW
PROGGED TO STAY MORE TO OUR SOUTH. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WHILE WE`LL SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THEY DON`T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG FOR OUR AREA.

BY SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BRINGING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE TIMES OF
PRECIP AND DEFINITE LULLS. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER
NOON ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A LULL OCCURS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THEN PRECIP PICKS UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE FRONT RANGE BUT WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS...COOL TEMPS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 031644
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT LONG LAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY HERE. IR SATELLITE SHOT IS
SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH IS A SIGHT FOR SORE EYES. TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP
WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER RIDGES BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY AND LARGE...A NICE SPRING DAY IN
STORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME POP AND DROP
SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NOTHING. FOLLOWED
GFS`S LEAD AND TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR RISE WITH TEMPS REACHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BEEN QUITE A WHILE SINCE WE`VE SAID THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END HOWEVER AND THIS BEGINS
THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO INVADE THE GREAT
BASIN. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA...ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT THURSDAY EVENING AS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FORM OVER THE DIVIDE THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON
FRIDAY...PRECIP BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD BUT STILL MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REINFORCED BY THE JET STREAM
ALOFT. WHILE THE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS TIGHT...THE JET IS NOW
PROGGED TO STAY MORE TO OUR SOUTH. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WHILE WE`LL SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THEY DON`T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG FOR OUR AREA.

BY SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BRINGING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE TIMES OF
PRECIP AND DEFINITE LULLS. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER
NOON ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A LULL OCCURS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THEN PRECIP PICKS UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE FRONT RANGE BUT WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS...COOL TEMPS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 030831
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
231 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT LONG LAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY HERE. IR SATELLITE SHOT IS
SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH IS A SIGHT FOR SORE EYES. TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP
WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER RIDGES BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY AND LARGE...A NICE SPRING DAY IN
STORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME POP AND DROP
SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NOTHING. FOLLOWED
GFS`S LEAD AND TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR RISE WITH TEMPS REACHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BEEN QUITE A WHILE SINCE WE`VE SAID THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END HOWEVER AND THIS BEGINS
THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO INVADE THE GREAT
BASIN. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA...ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT THURSDAY EVENING AS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FORM OVER THE DIVIDE THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON
FRIDAY...PRECIP BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD BUT STILL MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REINFORCED BY THE JET STREAM
ALOFT. WHILE THE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS TIGHT...THE JET IS NOW
PROGGED TO STAY MORE TO OUR SOUTH. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WHILE WE`LL SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THEY DON`T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG FOR OUR AREA.

BY SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BRINGING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE TIMES OF
PRECIP AND DEFINITE LULLS. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER
NOON ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A LULL OCCURS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THEN PRECIP PICKS UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE FRONT RANGE BUT WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS...COOL TEMPS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE
A QUICK STORM...POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SHOULD POSE NO
THREAT TO TAF SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 030534
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE RADIATIVE
FORCING THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE LEVELS. LEFT SOME SHOWERS IN THE SAN JUANS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE...BUT EXPECTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. SUNSHINE WILL ABOUND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS GROUND TO THE
EAST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GREATLY INCREASE NOT JUST
THE WIND ON THURSDAY BUT ALSO WILL PICK UP A 5+ G/KG FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CAPE SHOWS AN UPTICK ON THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDITIONS BREEZY...SHOWERY...AND ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. FROM 18Z TO 02Z...SCATTERED MAINLY MTN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 022335
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE RADIATIVE
FORCING THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE LEVELS. LEFT SOME SHOWERS IN THE SAN JUANS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE...BUT EXPECTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. SUNSHINE WILL ABOUND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS GROUND TO THE
EAST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GREATLY INCREASE NOT JUST
THE WIND ON THURSDAY BUT ALSO WILL PICK UP A 5+ G/KG FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CAPE SHOWS AN UPTICK ON THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDITIONS BREEZY...SHOWERY...AND ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED CIRCUMNAVIGABLE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE. AFT 18Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED MAINLY MTN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 022335
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE RADIATIVE
FORCING THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE LEVELS. LEFT SOME SHOWERS IN THE SAN JUANS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE...BUT EXPECTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. SUNSHINE WILL ABOUND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS GROUND TO THE
EAST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GREATLY INCREASE NOT JUST
THE WIND ON THURSDAY BUT ALSO WILL PICK UP A 5+ G/KG FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CAPE SHOWS AN UPTICK ON THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDITIONS BREEZY...SHOWERY...AND ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED CIRCUMNAVIGABLE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE. AFT 18Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED MAINLY MTN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 022102
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE RADIATIVE
FORCING THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE LEVELS. LEFT SOME SHOWERS IN THE SAN JUANS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE...BUT EXPECTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. SUNSHINE WILL ABOUND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS GROUND TO THE
EAST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GREATLY INCREASE NOT JUST
THE WIND ON THURSDAY BUT ALSO WILL PICK UP A 5+ G/KG FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CAPE SHOWS AN UPTICK ON THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDITIONS BREEZY...SHOWERY...AND ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SAN JUANS BEING FAVORED. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS/VIS WITH MTNS OBSCD. AFTER 03Z...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 021731
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1131 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FINALLY COMES TO AN END TODAY THOUGH SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING THE
SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE HRRR/RAP13 ARE REALLY DOWN PLAYING THIS
ACTIVITY AND A BIT MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW THEIR OUTPUT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOWER THAN NORMAL BUT FINALLY...TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH SOME CU
WILL FORM OVER THE SAN JUANS WITH A PASSING SHOWER POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND AND REACH NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE ENTIRE U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN TO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA AND ANOTHER LOW COMES ASHORE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS SINCE THERE IS NOWHERE FOR IT TO GO. TEMPS
WILL JUMP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WED AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
START STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS
TO TIGHTEN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD TO SCTD.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BUT GFS
HIGHLIGHTING MOST PRECIP TO FALL OVER CENTRAL/SRN WYOMING WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM
ABOUT I-70 NORTHWARD. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE SO CONFIDENCE NOT THAT
HIGH THAT WHAT HAS BEEN DESCRIBED HERE WILL COME TO PASS. AT THIS
POINT IT`S SAFE TO SAY THAT ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SAN JUANS BEING FAVORED. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS/VIS WITH MTNS OBSCD. AFTER 03Z...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 021013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FINALLY COMES TO AN END TODAY THOUGH SOME
ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORING THE
SAN JUANS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE HRRR/RAP13 ARE REALLY DOWN PLAYING THIS
ACTIVITY AND A BIT MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW THEIR OUTPUT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN LOWER THAN NORMAL BUT FINALLY...TOMORROW...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THOUGH SOME CU
WILL FORM OVER THE SAN JUANS WITH A PASSING SHOWER POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND AND REACH NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE ENTIRE U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN TO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA AND ANOTHER LOW COMES ASHORE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS SINCE THERE IS NOWHERE FOR IT TO GO. TEMPS
WILL JUMP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WED AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
START STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS
TO TIGHTEN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM THURSDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD TO SCTD.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BUT GFS
HIGHLIGHTING MOST PRECIP TO FALL OVER CENTRAL/SRN WYOMING WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FOR OUR CWA. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM
ABOUT I-70 NORTHWARD. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE SO CONFIDENCE NOT THAT
HIGH THAT WHAT HAS BEEN DESCRIBED HERE WILL COME TO PASS. AT THIS
POINT IT`S SAFE TO SAY THAT ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SAN JUANS BEING FAVORED THOUGH
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70 MAY SEEM FORMATION. LOW TO MID LEVEL
CIGS N OF I-70 THIS MORNING WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY BUT S OF
I-70 THEY WILL LIKELY HANG ON. ONCE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
FORM...BRIEF MVFR TO VFR POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS/VIS. AFTER
03Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 020609
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 09Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THRU 03Z. THEN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 020609
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 09Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THRU 03Z. THEN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 012335
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 09Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 012136
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER TWO THIRDS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 14Z
MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED AND ALL TAF SITES WILL BE OCCASIONALLY AT OR NEAR ILS
CIGS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011721
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER HALVES OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
14Z MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011721
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER HALVES OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
14Z MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS HANGS AROUND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011423
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WEB CAMS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS SITTING AROUND 6800
FEET ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...BUT IR
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND TEMPERATURES RISING AT
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND NORTH. WITH THE CORE OF
THE CLOSED LOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...NOT
EXPECTING SNOW LEVEL TO RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE VALLEYS...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 8000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011011
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT MORE THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 010558
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1158 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL MEAN VERY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS ONE OLD LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW...NOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN AZ...WITH FILL AND MOVE EAST AND OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS IS A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN SEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND MEANS THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ABOUT A LINE FROM MOAB TO ASPEN...AND DECREASED CHANCES TO THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND FOUR CORNERS INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE STEADILY
DECREASING AND SLIDING EAST. WED AND THU RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
MIDWEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. THU AFTERNOON THE RIDGELINE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY AS THIS STRONG CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WESTERN
U.S. ON SAT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN UT WITH RELATIVELY
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS 6000
FT BY EARLY SUNDAY THEN RISE TO AROUND 9000 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AFT
18Z CIGS WILL CROSS ILS BREAKPOINTS BE COMMON NEAR SHOWERS AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 010027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
627 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL MEAN VERY
SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS ONE OLD LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW...NOW CENTERED
OVER WESTERN AZ...WITH FILL AND MOVE EAST AND OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS IS A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN SEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND MEANS THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ABOUT A LINE FROM MOAB TO ASPEN...AND DECREASED CHANCES TO THE
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND FOUR CORNERS INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE STEADILY
DECREASING AND SLIDING EAST. WED AND THU RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
MIDWEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. THU AFTERNOON THE RIDGELINE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY AS THIS STRONG CLOSED
LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE WESTERN
U.S. ON SAT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER EASTERN UT WITH RELATIVELY
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 03Z
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS 6000 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY.
ILS CIGS WILL BE COMMON NEAR SHOWERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC





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