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000
FXUS65 KGJT 211122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST AREA BENEATH RIDGE AXIS TODAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVES LOTS OF SUN WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A MILD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERN VALLEY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO CENTRAL NV WITH 700MB WINDS
INCREASING TO SW40KTS IN NE UT-NW CO. CONVECTIVE STORMS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREATEN TO ADD TO THIS GUST POTENTIAL...BUT
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST PIECE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO WYOMING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR WESTERN
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. BLOWING DUST EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SOMEWHAT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BAND. WITH 700MB TEMPS
LOWERING TO -6C ACROSS THE NORTH...SNOW LEVELS LOWER ONTO THE NW
COLORADO PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS WEST WINDS ALOFT BRISK AT
AROUND 25KTS AT 700MB THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM
7KFT/9.5KFT NORTH/SOUTH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DROP 15 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS.

FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND OCCURS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION FORMING OVER SRN UTAH BEFORE
REACHING SW COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS SNOW
BACK TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT SHOWS A PROMINENT VORT
CENTER SWEEPING ACROSS SW COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING. EITHER
SOLUTION DEPICTS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BETWEEN 18Z-
02Z TODAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED BUT A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE IMPACTING A MOUNTAIN TAF SITE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST AREA BENEATH RIDGE AXIS TODAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVES LOTS OF SUN WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A MILD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERN VALLEY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO CENTRAL NV WITH 700MB WINDS
INCREASING TO SW40KTS IN NE UT-NW CO. CONVECTIVE STORMS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREATEN TO ADD TO THIS GUST POTENTIAL...BUT
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST PIECE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO WYOMING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR WESTERN
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. BLOWING DUST EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SOMEWHAT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BAND. WITH 700MB TEMPS
LOWERING TO -6C ACROSS THE NORTH...SNOW LEVELS LOWER ONTO THE NW
COLORADO PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS WEST WINDS ALOFT BRISK AT
AROUND 25KTS AT 700MB THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM
7KFT/9.5KFT NORTH/SOUTH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DROP 15 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS.

FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND OCCURS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION FORMING OVER SRN UTAH BEFORE
REACHING SW COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS SNOW
BACK TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT SHOWS A PROMINENT VORT
CENTER SWEEPING ACROSS SW COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING. EITHER
SOLUTION DEPICTS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS
IN WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

GJT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
THIS MORNING INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE
A SLOW RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE A GOOD FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THE SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE GUSTS. THEREFORE GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACROSS FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
TRAJECTORY RIGHT FOR BLOWING DUST AND DUST ON SNOW. WHILE THE
SURFACE LAYER GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HUMIDITY VALUES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ON WED. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AROUND
6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.

AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE CALM IN-BETWEEN DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND
UNDERWAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THEN
WITH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE ARE SAT AND SUN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AFTER
18Z ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND OTHER AIRPORTS
IN WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. ALSO
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SPRING GREEN UP...FUELS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...ARE
NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE WILL NOT HOIST ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION IS ADVISED.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DUE TO THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER FORECASTS.

ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
436 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

GJT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
THIS MORNING INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE
A SLOW RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE A GOOD FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THE SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE GUSTS. THEREFORE GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACROSS FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
TRAJECTORY RIGHT FOR BLOWING DUST AND DUST ON SNOW. WHILE THE
SURFACE LAYER GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HUMIDITY VALUES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ON WED. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AROUND
6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.

AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE CALM IN-BETWEEN DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND
UNDERWAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THEN
WITH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE ARE SAT AND SUN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 10,000
FT MSL WILL CONTINUE 02Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS...WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES. AFTER ABOUT 02Z
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AFTER 18Z ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. ALSO
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SPRING GREEN UP...FUELS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...ARE
NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE WILL NOT HOIST ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION IS ADVISED.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DUE TO THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER FORECASTS.

ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202134
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

GJT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
THIS MORNING INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE
A SLOW RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG STORY
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON TUESDAY...MIXING INTO THE VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE A GOOD FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THE SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN VIRGA THAT DEVELOP WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE GUSTS. THEREFORE GUSTS 35-45 MPH AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACROSS FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THE
TRAJECTORY RIGHT FOR BLOWING DUST AND DUST ON SNOW. WHILE THE
SURFACE LAYER GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER HUMIDITY VALUES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS
STILL INDICATE THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ON WED. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED AROUND
6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH.

AFTER A VERY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE CALM IN-BETWEEN DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND
UNDERWAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. THEN
WITH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE ARE SAT AND SUN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME
STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 02Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. ALSO
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SPRING GREEN UP...FUELS IN THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...ARE
NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE WILL NOT HOIST ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. THAT SAID...LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CAUTION IS ADVISED.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DUE TO THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER FORECASTS.

ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...MPM
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 201643
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z KGJT RAOB SHOWED OVER HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER REMAINING IN THE
SOUNDING...KEEPING THINGS JUICY AS THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. UNDERESTIMATED THE SURGE OF MOISTURE YESTERDAY AS EVEN WEAK
LIFT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. QG PROGS
SHOW LARGE SCALE LIFT IS AGAIN BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TODAY WITH
JUST A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
BRUSH US TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THINK THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE THE WEAK LIFT. FEEL THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY HAVE
HAVE THE EDGE AT COVERAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUTTING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
PLACE TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE NORMAL AND START A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AS WARMER AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
COULD POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MILD
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD PUSH UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WIND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORMS
AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT THAT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF ERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO COULD
BE PUSHING 45 TO 50 MPH. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERGOES
DYNAMICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENERATING CLOUD COVER
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN COLORADO (OR VIRGA IN THE DRIER
SUB CLOUD LAYER). MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (86 AT GRAND JUNCTION)...MOST LIKELY TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THAT 700 MB TEMPS DO NOT REACH
10C OR HIGHER.

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION STAYS WELL NORTH OF COLORADO AND TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. THE AIR MASS DOES GET COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ELKHEADS AND THE PARK RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
MOUNTAIN PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW POTENTIAL DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED
PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INLAND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS
AMPLIFICATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING IN PIECES. NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER
TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 02Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 201125
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z KGJT RAOB SHOWED OVER HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER REMAINING IN THE
SOUNDING...KEEPING THINGS JUICY AS THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. UNDERESTIMATED THE SURGE OF MOISTURE YESTERDAY AS EVEN WEAK
LIFT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. QG PROGS
SHOW LARGE SCALE LIFT IS AGAIN BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TODAY WITH
JUST A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
BRUSH US TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THINK THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE THE WEAK LIFT. FEEL THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY HAVE
HAVE THE EDGE AT COVERAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUTTING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
PLACE TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE NORMAL AND START A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AS WARMER AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAHIC CIRCULATIONS
COULD POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MILD
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD PUSH UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WIND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORMS
AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT THAT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF ERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO COULD
BE PUSHING 45 TO 50 MPH. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERGOES
DYNAMICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENERATING CLOUD COVER
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN COLORADO (OR VIRGA IN THE DRIER
SUB CLOUD LAYER). MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (86 AT GRAND JUNCTION)...MOST LIKELY TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THAT 700 MB TEMPS DO NOT REACH
10C OR HIGHER.

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION STAYS WELL NORTH OF COLORADO AND TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. THE AIR MASS DOES GET COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ELKHEADS AND THE PARK RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
MOUNTAIN PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW POTENTIAL DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED
PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INLAND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS
AMPLIFICATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING IN PIECES. NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE ARE LOCAL CIGS BKN035 IN
THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK
UP BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...BUT GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED
-TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-02Z. THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING A MOUNTAIN TAF SITE IS 30 PERCENT.

CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 201019
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z KGJT RAOB SHOWED OVER HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER REMAINING IN THE
SOUNDING...KEEPING THINGS JUICY AS THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. UNDERESTIMATED THE SURGE OF MOISTURE YESTERDAY AS EVEN WEAK
LIFT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. QG PROGS
SHOW LARGE SCALE LIFT IS AGAIN BROAD AND ILL DEFINED TODAY WITH
JUST A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
BRUSH US TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY MID
MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT THINK THE
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND
ENHANCE THE WEAK LIFT. FEEL THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA MAY HAVE
HAVE THE EDGE AT COVERAGE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PUTTING A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IN
PLACE TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE NORMAL AND START A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AS WARMER AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND OROGRAHIC CIRCULATIONS
COULD POPS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST WILL BE DRY. MILD
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD PUSH UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

WARM RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WIND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORMS
AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT THAT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE DESERTS OF ERN UTAH INTO NW COLORADO COULD
BE PUSHING 45 TO 50 MPH. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERGOES
DYNAMICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...GENERATING CLOUD COVER
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN COLORADO (OR VIRGA IN THE DRIER
SUB CLOUD LAYER). MAV MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (86 AT GRAND JUNCTION)...MOST LIKELY TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THAT 700 MB TEMPS DO NOT REACH
10C OR HIGHER.

CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION STAYS WELL NORTH OF COLORADO AND TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. THE AIR MASS DOES GET COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ELKHEADS AND THE PARK RANGE...AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
MOUNTAIN PASSES. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW POTENTIAL DECREASES
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED
PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INLAND. HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS
AMPLIFICATION WITH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING IN PIECES. NOT CLEAR
HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS REFOCUSING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KGJX RADAR SHOWING A MUCH QUIETER SCENE THAN PRIOR TO
SUNSET. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 ALONG THE SPINE OF THE DIVIDE AND EASTWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POP AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN. A STRAY SHOWER
INTO THE VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LONG
BUT MAY TEMPORARILY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 200447
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1047 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS ALLOWED A SERIES OF WEAK
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY. EARLY MORNING WAVE LIFTED ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. QPF AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SECOND WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO IS TRYING TO SNEAK BACK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO DRIVE THE SOUTHERN WAVE A BIT MORE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH
NORTHERN ENERGY SHEARING APART AND SOUTHERN STREAM SLIDING TO OUR
EAST...DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS
DIMINISHED GREATLY. STILL WORKING ON A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH ENOUGH JUICE TO KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION ROLLING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FOCUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND SIX
TENTHS OF AN INCH...ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF SEASON. SO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW
MAY BE REALIZED NEAR STRONGER CELLS...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING OR
INCREASED SNOWMELT DUE TO RAIN ON SNOW. AFTER A COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL DAY TODAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE WORK WEEK BEGINS AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...A BENIGN SPRING DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL

TUE-WED PROMISES TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUE...THEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL REACH NORTHEAST UT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. BUT THE ACTION WILL
MOSTLY TAKE PLACE ON TUE AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 40-45 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW OVER EASTERN UT. THIS STRONG AND WARM FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AND BLOWING DUST AND/OR
ANOTHER DUST ON SNOW EVENT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.
THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE PASSES. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH THEN RELOADS ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS STORM SYSTEM IS REFOCUSING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KGJX RADAR SHOWING A MUCH QUIETER SCENE THAN PRIOR TO
SUNSET. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 ALONG THE SPINE OF THE DIVIDE AND EASTWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POP AGAIN WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY ON THE TERRAIN. A STRAY SHOWER
INTO THE VALLEYS IS UNLIKELY TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR LONG
BUT MAY TEMPORARILY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY THEN PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND THE SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SINCE MOST
MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE RISING TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT IN PLACES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. THE STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
BORDER...GUSTY WINDS WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. CALMER
WEATHER WILL AGAIN FOLLOW LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE
DEVELOPS. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY...ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 192126
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS ALLOWED A SERIES OF WEAK
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY. EARLY MORNING WAVE LIFTED ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. QPF AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. SECOND WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO IS TRYING TO SNEAK BACK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO DRIVE THE SOUTHERN WAVE A BIT MORE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH
NORTHERN ENERGY SHEARING APART AND SOUTHERN STREAM SLIDING TO OUR
EAST...DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS
DIMINISHED GREATLY. STILL WORKING ON A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH ENOUGH JUICE TO KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION ROLLING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FOCUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND SIX
TENTHS OF AN INCH...ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF SEASON. SO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW
MAY BE REALIZED NEAR STRONGER CELLS...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING OR
INCREASED SNOWMELT DUE TO RAIN ON SNOW. AFTER A COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL DAY TODAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE WORK WEEK BEGINS AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...A BENIGN SPRING DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL

TUE-WED PROMISES TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUE...THEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL REACH NORTHEAST UT LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED. BUT THE ACTION WILL
MOSTLY TAKE PLACE ON TUE AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 40-45 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST
FLOW OVER EASTERN UT. THIS STRONG AND WARM FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AND BLOWING DUST AND/OR
ANOTHER DUST ON SNOW EVENT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.
THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE PASSES. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH THEN RELOADS ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
OCCUR THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY STAY VFR...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED -SHRA AFTER 03Z WITH
VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY THEN PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN IMPACT FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND THE SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SINCE MOST
MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE RISING TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT IN PLACES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. THE STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN
BORDER...GUSTY WINDS WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. CALMER
WEATHER WILL AGAIN FOLLOW LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE
DEVELOPS. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY...ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 191701
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHRTWV WORKING NORTH THIS MORNING GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CLEARING
LIFTING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AS WELL...SO LOWERED POPS DOWN
THERE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION STILL ANTICIPATED AS WE
WORK THROUGH THE DAY. THE KGJX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE THIS
MORNING AND TECHNICIANS ARE LOOKING INTO THE PROBLEM. WILL UPDATE
STATUS AS WE RECEIVE INFORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW THIS MORNING...ONE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A SECOND
LAGGING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THE DAKOTA
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHES A WEAK BOUNDARY DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NORTHERN UTAH. 300K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND
WATER VAPOR SUGGEST A TAP TO THE SUBTROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. VIRGA FROM LAST EVENING HAS PROBABLY
HELPED SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN IN PLACES...BUT VERY DRY SOUNDING CAME
IN AT 00Z LAST EVENING. QG FIELDS SHOW ONLY WEAK  AND BROAD LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TODAY. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE 00Z CHART INDICATED THE
SYSTEM WOULD DIG SOUTHEAST SOME BEFORE LIFTING AND WATER VAPOR
SUPPORTING THIS ATTM. THEREFORE ASCENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
ALSO LOOK TO MAINLY BYPASS OUR CWA AND TAKE AIM EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
SO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS FEEL OROGRAPHICS AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT AS WELL WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AND
INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT TO VALLEY WEATHER.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE FEEL THE TERRAIN WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES AND
RAISED POPS SOME IN SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND DID TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD. THERE SHOULD BE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN TO THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE ON THE DECREASE AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOLLOW SUIT. GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR SUNDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES STAY IN
PLACE WITH HIGH AOA NORMAL. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION WILL STILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THE
RELATIVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS
AND ADDED PRECIPITATION COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS FOR
THE SMALLER BASINS AND CREEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWER 80S IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.
AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES...DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
PROJECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MONTANA...THIS LIMITS THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON
THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES WRN COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
OCCUR THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY STAY VFR...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED -SHRA AFTER 03Z WITH
VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 191516
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHRTWV WORKING NORTH THIS MORNING GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP FIELDS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CLEARING
LIFTING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AS WELL...SO LOWERED POPS DOWN
THERE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION STILL ANTICIPATED AS WE
WORK THROUGH THE DAY. THE KGJX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE THIS
MORNING AND TECHNICIANS ARE LOOKING INTO THE PROBLEM. WILL UPDATE
STATUS AS WE RECEIVE INFORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW THIS MORNING...ONE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A SECOND
LAGGING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THE DAKOTA
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHES A WEAK BOUNDARY DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NORTHERN UTAH. 300K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND
WATER VAPOR SUGGEST A TAP TO THE SUBTROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. VIRGA FROM LAST EVENING HAS PROBABLY
HELPED SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN IN PLACES...BUT VERY DRY SOUNDING CAME
IN AT 00Z LAST EVENING. QG FIELDS SHOW ONLY WEAK  AND BROAD LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TODAY. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE 00Z CHART INDICATED THE
SYSTEM WOULD DIG SOUTHEAST SOME BEFORE LIFTING AND WATER VAPOR
SUPPORTING THIS ATTM. THEREFORE ASCENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
ALSO LOOK TO MAINLY BYPASS OUR CWA AND TAKE AIM EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
SO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS FEEL OROGRAPHICS AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT AS WELL WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AND
INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT TO VALLEY WEATHER.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE FEEL THE TERRAIN WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES AND
RAISED POPS SOME IN SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND DID TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD. THERE SHOULD BE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN TO THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE ON THE DECREASE AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOLLOW SUIT. GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR SUNDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES STAY IN
PLACE WITH HIGH AOA NORMAL. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION WILL STILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THE
RELATIVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS
AND ADDED PRECIPITATION COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS FOR
THE SMALLER BASINS AND CREEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWER 80S IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.
AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES...DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
PROJECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MONTANA...THIS LIMITS THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON
THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES WRN COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
OCCUR TODAY THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN
9000 AND 10000 FEET.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY STAY VFR...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED -SHRA AFTER 03Z WITH
VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 191155
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW THIS MORNING...ONE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A SECOND
LAGGING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THE DAKOTA
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHES A WEAK BOUNDARY DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NORTHERN UTAH. 300K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND
WATER VAPOR SUGGEST A TAP TO THE SUBTROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. VIRGA FROM LAST EVENING HAS PROBABLY
HELPED SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN IN PLACES...BUT VERY DRY SOUNDING CAME
IN AT 00Z LAST EVENING. QG FIELDS SHOW ONLY WEAK  AND BROAD LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TODAY. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE 00Z CHART INDICATED THE
SYSTEM WOULD DIG SOUTHEAST SOME BEFORE LIFTING AND WATER VAPOR
SUPPORTING THIS ATTM. THEREFORE ASCENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
ALSO LOOK TO MAINLY BYPASS OUR CWA AND TAKE AIM EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
SO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS FEEL OROGRAPHICS AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT AS WELL WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AND
INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT TO VALLEY WEATHER.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE FEEL THE TERRAIN WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES AND
RAISED POPS SOME IN SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND DID TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD. THERE SHOULD BE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN TO THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE ON THE DECREASE AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOLLOW SUIT. GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR SUNDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES STAY IN
PLACE WITH HIGH AOA NORMAL. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION WILL STILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THE
RELATIVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS
AND ADDED PRECIPITATION COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS FOR
THE SMALLER BASINS AND CREEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWER 80S IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.
AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES...DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
PROJECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MONTANA...THIS LIMITS THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON
THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES WRN COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
OCCUR TODAY THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN
9000 AND 10000 FEET.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY STAY VFR...HOWEVER LOCAL IFR/MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED -SHRA AFTER 03Z WITH
VFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 191029
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
429 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING TWO SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW THIS MORNING...ONE
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A SECOND
LAGGING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THE DAKOTA
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHES A WEAK BOUNDARY DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NORTHERN UTAH. 300K MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND
WATER VAPOR SUGGEST A TAP TO THE SUBTROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. VIRGA FROM LAST EVENING HAS PROBABLY
HELPED SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN IN PLACES...BUT VERY DRY SOUNDING CAME
IN AT 00Z LAST EVENING. QG FIELDS SHOW ONLY WEAK  AND BROAD LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TODAY. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE 00Z CHART INDICATED THE
SYSTEM WOULD DIG SOUTHEAST SOME BEFORE LIFTING AND WATER VAPOR
SUPPORTING THIS ATTM. THEREFORE ASCENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM
ALSO LOOK TO MAINLY BYPASS OUR CWA AND TAKE AIM EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
SO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS FEEL OROGRAPHICS AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT AS WELL WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AND
INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT TO VALLEY WEATHER.
HOWEVER ON THE WHOLE FEEL THE TERRAIN WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES AND
RAISED POPS SOME IN SOUTH. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND DID TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD. THERE SHOULD BE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN TO THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS KEEP A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING. AGAIN THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE ON THE DECREASE AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOLLOW SUIT. GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR SUNDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES STAY IN
PLACE WITH HIGH AOA NORMAL. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION WILL STILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THE
RELATIVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS
AND ADDED PRECIPITATION COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS FOR
THE SMALLER BASINS AND CREEKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWER 80S IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.
AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES...DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS
PROJECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MONTANA...THIS LIMITS THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON
THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES WRN COLORADO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS PREVENTING MOISTURE FROM
GETTING INTO THE VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR VIRGA
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CHANGE TOWARD MORNING AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LIFT
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION OF THE TERRAIN.
VALLEYS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...BUT GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT FORECAST TERMINAL
OPERATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 190445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE INCREASED PAST SUNSET AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND NAM MODELS HAVE DONE WELL IN
FORECASTING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE NORTHERN
SAN JUAN AND ELK MOUNTAINS. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MODEL SKEW-TS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ARE SHOWING A CLASSIC
`V` PATTERN WHICH SUGGESTS STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT FROM VIRGA
AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP.

JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW WITH
SNOW LEVEL STARTING NEAR 8500 FT OVERNIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST AND
TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AS IT PASSES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CO
MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCH
BY NOON SATURDAY...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. WITH SO MUCH POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD PACK A GOOD PUNCH OF WATER. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO
NEAR 10000 FEET BY NOON SO THE WINTER SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH...THEREFORE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD RISE QUICKLY.
USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THROUGH THE BACKCOUNTRY OR TRAVELING NEAR
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG SMALL DRAINAGES. WE APPRECIATE ANY REPORTS
OF RISING WATER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND SATURDAY/S DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HELPING THIS CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK WAVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WHILE A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON A DOWNTURN
IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON
TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT. WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WARM...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY ACT TO
DAMPEN THE WINDS. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VIRGA OR LIGHT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
WHICH WOULD GREATLY BOOST WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER WED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR OUR
AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH.

THEN WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THU AND FRI.

AFTER WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BY 15 OR MORE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS PREVENTING MOISTURE FROM
GETTING INTO THE VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR VIRGA
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CHANGE TOWARD MORNING AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LIFT
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION OF THE TERRAIN.
VALLEYS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...BUT GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT FORECAST TERMINAL
OPERATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 182153
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE INCREASED PAST SUNSET AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND NAM MODELS HAVE DONE WELL IN
FORECASTING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE NORTHERN
SAN JUAN AND ELK MOUNTAINS. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MODEL SKEW-TS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ARE SHOWING A CLASSIC
`V` PATTERN WHICH SUGGESTS STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT FROM VIRGA
AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP.

JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW WITH
SNOW LEVEL STARTING NEAR 8500 FT OVERNIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST AND
TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AS IT PASSES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CO
MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCH
BY NOON SATURDAY...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. WITH SO MUCH POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD PACK A GOOD PUNCH OF WATER. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO
NEAR 10000 FEET BY NOON SO THE WINTER SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH...THEREFORE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD RISE QUICKLY.
USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THROUGH THE BACKCOUNTRY OR TRAVELING NEAR
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG SMALL DRAINAGES. WE APPRECIATE ANY REPORTS
OF RISING WATER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND SATURDAY/S DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HELPING THIS CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK WAVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WHILE A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON A DOWNTURN
IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON
TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT. WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WARM...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY ACT TO
DAMPEN THE WINDS. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VIRGA OR LIGHT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
WHICH WOULD GREATLY BOOST WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER WED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR OUR
AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH.

THEN WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THU AND FRI.

AFTER WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BY 15 OR MORE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH DUE TO VIRGA AND DOWNDRAFT
REMNANTS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z
AND 16Z. PARTIAL MTN OBSCURATIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 181748
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1148 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MOSTLY DRY...MILD BUT BREEZY WEATHER TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND TWO PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVE INLAND. THE
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY PUSHING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT ACROSS SRN CA TODAY TO THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS SRN
STREAM LOW WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES BY WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WY BORDER.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS INHIBIT CONVECTION.
MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD BE DRY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LOWERS TONIGHT TONIGHT AS SRN CA LOW MOVES INTO
AZ. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
SPREADING NORTH TO THE BOOKCLIFFS AND FLATTOPS BY MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES UP INTO SE
UT/SW CO AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-70 TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. 700 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND ZERO CELSIUS SOME SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY HIGH VALLEYS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AFTER A BIT OF DOWNTURN SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLER
AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH LARGER-SCALE LIFT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SHOULD GIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY A BOOST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE...HOWEVER...DUE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INHIBITING GOOD SURFACE HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE SHIFTS TO THE FRONT
RANGE. NAM12 CONTINUES TO PAINT RATHER MEAGER PRECIP AMTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE GFS/EC MORE BULLISH. THIS IS THE WAY IT GOES WITH
CONVECTIVE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR MODELS SO SCHC TO CHC FOR VALLEYS AND
CHC TO LIKELY LOOKS GOOD FOR MTNS.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY MANAGE TO
FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTION BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENING FAVORING
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
HIGHEST. BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE PAC NW. AS EARLY AS TUE AFTN WE SHOULD FEEL
THE EFFECTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
FELT ACROSS THE CWA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS GFS COMING AROUND TO EC THINKING OF KEEPING
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WELL TO OUR N WHILE SPOTTY PRECIP WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN THRU WED AFTN. H7 WINDS STILL SHOW 55 TO 60KTS
WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE SO DO ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF
WIND ADVISORIES...IF NOT HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOME SPOTS...ALONG
WITH BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES FOR SOME AREAS AS WELL. WITH THIS
MUCH WIND...WE CAN ALSO EXPECT PLENTY OF DUST ON SNOW WHICH WILL
INCREASE SNOWMELT FOR MOUNTAIN LOCALES...THINKING SAN JUANS ATTM.
THIS IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE HOWEVER AS WE REMAIN 5 DAYS OUT SO
PLENTY OF TIME FOR SOME MODEST TO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH DUE TO VIRGA AND SHOWER
DOWNDRAFT REMNANTS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. PARTIAL MTN OBSCURATIONS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JAM





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