000
FXUS65 KGJT 231001
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
WINDY AND WARMER TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER WA/OR
MAINTAINS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR IMPACTS. A COLD FRONT WAS BUTTED UP
AGAINST THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UTAH MTNS EARLIER AND SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE EASTWARD PUSH.
AN UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN
UT TODAY AND ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT OVER ERN UT/WRN CO. LAST EVENING/S
SOUNDING AT GRAND JCT SHOWED DEEP MIXING UP TO 500 MB AND SEE NO
REASON WHY DEEP MIXING WON/T OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND A BIT
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON
ACROSS ERN UT AND MUCH OF WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS IN ERN UT AND NW CO COULD FLIRT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET MAX MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO...THOUGH ONCE THE DIURNAL INPUT SUBSIDES
AROUND SUNSET...WIND STRENGTH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER
SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST-EAST ACROSS WY AND BRUSHES OUR NORTHERN
BORDER. THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
LOWS 0-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED NIGHT`S.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE
NORTHWEST LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THEREFORE
GUSTY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY THE
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF THE PREVIOUS
DAY...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG. BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
THOSE ON THU.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DRY...WARM AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ONLY GRADUALLY EVOLVES AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
SITS TO OUR EAST. AGAIN GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PAC NW LIFTS INTO WRN CANADA SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT UPSTREAM PACIFIC ENERGY LOOKS TO MAINTAIN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES GROW...HOWEVER. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH CLOSER TO
THE WEST COAST AND IS SLOWER TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD FOR MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS BY WED FOR A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ARE LIKELY. PRIOR
TO 18Z...LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
MORNING DOWN VALLEY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
RIDGE TOPS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE THE
ALREADY STRONG FLOW. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290 AND 292 WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICALLY DRY.
THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A
GRADUAL MODIFICATION TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AS THESE WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ207-290-292.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ207-290-292.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH/JAD
LONG TERM...EH/JAD
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...EH
000
FXUS65 KGJT 230322
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS THIS EVENING AS NEW FUEL
STATUS REPORTS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A BIT. DETAILS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. NO OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
H5 ANALYSIS SHOWING A BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES INTO THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NOAM. THIS INCLUDES A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES WELL INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED TOWARD OUR CWA AND BRING A STRONG WARM UP INCLUDING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.
SOME CU FORMING FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL UPLIFT
COMING FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
ASCENT AND A FEW SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS BONE DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL BE THE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOWER
WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH DESERTS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNVALLEY FLOW WIT FORECAST LOWS TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN BE TAKING PLACE AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. A STRONGER CORE OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW. EFFICIENT
MIXING WILL BRING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
MOVE INTO THE LOWER 80S. PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A
RECENT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG
MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 90 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY IS 31 MAY...AND
WE WILL BE APPROACHING THIS TOMORROW...SO PUSHED THE FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES CLOSER ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SOME OF THIS
GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING WINDS TOWARD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS AND BUFKIT SHOWS A FULLY MIXED PROFILE
BRINGING GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS SO NO HEADLINES ATTM. EXPECT SOME CU/MDT CU
DEV ELOPEMENT OVER THE HILLS TOMORROW BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP
HITTING THE GROUND. THE SFC GRADIENT SLACKENS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LITTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF OVER ALL
BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL ALSO DROP LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE
ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EC SLOWEST...THE CANADIAN
FASTEST...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN.
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY DRY AND WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS MAY PLAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUT
AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORNING
LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LONG TERM GUIDANCE WAS MODIFIED FOR MORE
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO 500MB OR MORE WHICH WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY LATE-DAY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS THE TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE.
TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH IN THE MORNING DUE TO DOWN VALLEY FLOW. FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST DAYTIME
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EACH DAY. FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT
FOR FRIDAY. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPDATED FUEL STATUS FOR ZONE 293 INDICATES THE ZONE IN GREEN-UP
WITH FUELS NO LONGER CRITICAL...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THIS ZONE FROM
THE WARNING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
292.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ207-290-292.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/JDC
000
FXUS65 KGJT 222128
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
H5 ANALYSIS SHOWING A BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES INTO THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NOAM. THIS INCLUDES A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES WELL INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED TOWARD OUR CWA AND BRING A STRONG WARM UP INCLUDING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.
SOME CU FORMING FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL UPLIFT
COMING FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
ASCENT AND A FEW SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS BONE DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL BE THE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOWER
WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH DESERTS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNVALLEY FLOW WTIH FORECAST LOWS TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN BE TAKING PLACE AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. A STRONGER CORE OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW. EFFICIENT
MIXING WILL BRING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
MOVE INTO THE LOWER 80S. PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A
RECENT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG
MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 90 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY IS 31 MAY...AND
WE WILL BE APPROACHING THIS TOMORROW...SO PUSHED THE FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES CLOSER ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SOME OF THIS
GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING WINDS TOWARD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS AND BUFKIT SHOWS A FULLY MIXED PROFILE
BRINGING GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS SO NO HEADLINES ATTM. EXPECT SOME CU/MDT CU
DEVELOPEMENT OVER THE HILLS TOMORROW BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP
HITTING THE GROUND. THE SFC GRADIENT SLACKENS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LITTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF OVER ALL
BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL ALSO DROP LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE
ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EC SLOWEST...THE CANADIAN
FASTEST...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN.
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY DRY AND WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS MAY PLAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUT
AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORNING
LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LONG TERM GUIDANCE WAS MODIFIED FOR MORE
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO 500MB OR MORE WHICH WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY LATE-DAY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS THE TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE.
TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WILL KEEP CONVECTION
IN PLACE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TO
THE KEGE AND KASE TERMINALS NEAR THIS CONVECTION...HOWEVER
LIMITED FLIGHT CRITERIA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY
BRING LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
DOWN VALLEY FLOW. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR
THE WEST COAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST DAYTIME WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EACH DAY. FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO...THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
000
FXUS65 KGJT 221749
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1149 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
SOUNDING A LITTLE DRIER AND WARMER TODAY WITH CU NOT QUITE AS
ROBUST LATE THIS MORNING AS DAYS PAST. THERE IS AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WHICH WILL ARRIVE HERE
DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS
IS INDICATED AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET.
GOING FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE WITH A FEW STAY SHOWERS FARTHER OUT ON THE
SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE
STILL ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
STRONG MIXING WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY DURING THE LATE
PEAK HEATING TIME IN THE WESTERN CWA...PUSHING SOME LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
TODAY
SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO OUR AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 4
TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH
THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING THERE STILL EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS ALONG/NEAR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PERHAPS ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CO.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMATTERING OF CLOUDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THIS DRY WAVE WILL BRUSH
OUR WESTERN EDGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING FUELED BY THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE
WITH THE WAVE WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL HEATING SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING.
ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS TO THE
NORTH BY MID TO LATE EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THAT THE DIURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE THAN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER WITHOUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER...IN SPITE OF SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR NOW WINDS SEEM TO MAINLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON THU.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MODELS BRING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. GFS...WHICH IS FASTER THAN EC...BRINGS THE TROUGH TO OUR
CWA BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH
IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING. ALSO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS LOWER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WILL FORM
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT TO THE KEGE AND KASE TERMINALS...HOWEVER LIMITED
FLIGHT CRITERIA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY BRING LOCAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO DOWN VALLEY FLOW.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TODAY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS 25 MPH
OR ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AND IF THEY DO DEVELOP
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS WARMING CONTINUES.
BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AS A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW BRUSHES THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...EH/JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...EH
000
FXUS65 KGJT 221658
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
TODAY
SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO OUR AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 4
TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH
THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING THERE STILL EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS ALONG/NEAR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PERHAPS ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CO.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMATTERING OF CLOUDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THIS DRY WAVE WILL BRUSH
OUR WESTERN EDGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING FUELED BY THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE
WITH THE WAVE WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL HEATING SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING.
ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS TO THE
NORTH BY MID TO LATE EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THAT THE DIURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE THAN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER WITHOUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER...IN SPITE OF SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR NOW WINDS SEEM TO MAINLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON THU.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MODELS BRING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. GFS...WHICH IS FASTER THAN EC...BRINGS THE TROUGH TO OUR
CWA BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH
IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING. ALSO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS LOWER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A
BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WILL FORM
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT TO THE KEGE AND KASE TERMINALS...HOWEVER LIMITED
FLIGHT CRITERIA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY BRING LOCAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO DOWN VALLEY FLOW.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TODAY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS 25 MPH
OR ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AND IF THEY DO DEVELOP
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS WARMING CONTINUES.
BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AS A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW BRUSHES THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...EH/JRP
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...EH
000
FXUS65 KGJT 220844
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
244 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
TODAY
SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING EXPECTED AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO OUR AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHILE H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 4
TO 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A LITTLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH
THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING THERE STILL EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS ALONG/NEAR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PERHAPS ALSO OVER THE
EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT
A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CO.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMATTERING OF CLOUDS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THIS DRY WAVE WILL BRUSH
OUR WESTERN EDGE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING FUELED BY THE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE
WITH THE WAVE WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL HEATING SUBSIDES THURSDAY EVENING.
ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS TO THE
NORTH BY MID TO LATE EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THAT THE DIURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE A STRONGER
INFLUENCE THAN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. HOWEVER WITHOUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER...IN SPITE OF SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR NOW WINDS SEEM TO MAINLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE ON THU.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MODELS BRING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. GFS...WHICH IS FASTER THAN EC...BRINGS THE TROUGH TO OUR
CWA BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH
IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING. ALSO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS LOWER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS NEAR/ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALSO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST
AIRPORTS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO...BECOMING EVEN STRONGER BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE AREA SITS
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST...AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TODAY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS 25 MPH
OR ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AND IF THEY DO DEVELOP
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS WARMING CONTINUES.
BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AS A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW BRUSHES THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CO FIRE ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...EH/JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...EH
000
FXUS65 KGJT 220422
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1022 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SEASONAL GREEN-UP...LAND USE AGENCIES
RESPONSIBLE FOR CO FIRE ZONE 203 HAVE DETERMINED THAT THE FUELS
FOR THAT ZONE ARE NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ZONE 203 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293 ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW TOP CUMULI HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAVE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH FACING SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED SPEED MAXIMA FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC HAVE REACHED THE UTAH SPINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WRN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLORADO WILL BE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED FROM ARIZONA...BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS NEAR THE PARK/GORE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER GIVEN THE THERMALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS
ACROSS UTAH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FRIDAY. OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WARM...AND WINDY. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 80 DEGREES (NEAR NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
-SHRA OR -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 02Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH RH 15% OR LOWER...BUT SHOULD NOT
LAST FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM. GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292...AND 293 WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...JAM
000
FXUS65 KGJT 212344
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
544 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND SEASONAL GREEN-UP...LAND USE AGENCIES
RESPONSIBLE FOR CO FIRE ZONE 203 HAVE DETERMINED THAT THE FUELS
FOR THAT ZONE ARE NO LONGER CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ZONE 203 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292 AND 293 ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW TOP CUMULI HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAVE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH FACING SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED SPEED MAXIMA FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC HAVE REACHED THE UTAH SPINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WRN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLORADO WILL BE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED FROM ARIZONA...BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS NEAR THE PARK/GORE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER GIVEN THE THERMALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS
ACROSS UTAH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FRIDAY. OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WARM...AND WINDY. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 80 DEGREES (NEAR NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AND AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVENING. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
LIMITED TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH RH 15% OR LOWER...BUT SHOULD NOT
LAST FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM. GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 207...290...292...AND 293 WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAM
000
FXUS65 KGJT 212139
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW TOP CUMULI HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT APPEARS THAT WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAVE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH FACING SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE UINTA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED SPEED MAXIMA FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC HAVE REACHED THE UTAH SPINE. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WRN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
BY DAYBREAK...HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AS COLORADO WILL BE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED FROM ARIZONA...BUT SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS NEAR THE PARK/GORE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER GIVEN THE THERMALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS
ACROSS UTAH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE.
HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING FRIDAY. OVERALL INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY...WARM...AND WINDY. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
COOL BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 80 DEGREES (NEAR NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS VERY LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AND AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVENING. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
LIMITED TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH RH 15% OR LOWER...BUT SHOULD NOT
LAST FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY BETWEEN NOON AND 9PM. GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 203...207...290...292...AND 293 WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ203-207-
290-292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAM
000
FXUS65 KGJT 210852
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
252 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
TODAY
AREAS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ACROSS OUR
CWA...THOUGH EXPECT A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE
WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTION AGAIN...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS...
THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH TODAY SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS MAINLY N OF
I-70...WHILE S OF I-70 EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
TONIGHT
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ONE WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND INTO EASTERN UT THIS
EVENING...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT.
THE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE MID TO HIGH
BASED...SO DO NOT SEE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION LEFT OVER FROM
THE AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL INCREASES
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
LOW...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH THE WARMING TREND QUITE
STEEP THROUGH WED. AND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NORTH
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY`S. BUT ALL
LOCATIONS WILL SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WED AFTERNOON.
THE TREND WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT BY THU WITH ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING. THE GOOD DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
MIXED LAYER BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS ON
WED...BUT BY THU AFTERNOON THE STRONGER FLOW WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP
WITH THIS SCENARIO BY THU AS THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
PRESENTLY...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY...UNDER A PERSISTENT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. AND ALTHOUGH PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED EACH DAY...THOSE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
AS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THUS RESULTING IN A LESSENED THREAT FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHEAST UTAH...WITH MOUNTAIN TOPS LOCALLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SAME HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST UTAH. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...IT WILL PULL VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES SURPASS SEASONAL
NORMALS WED AND THU AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL CO. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST...AND THEN INCREASE ON THU. DUE TO GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING A DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE ON THU AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE DRY AIR MASS MAY PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
CO FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ203-207-290-292-293.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JRP
FIRE WEATHER...EH
000
FXUS65 KGJT 210442
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1042 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST AREA IMPACTED BY NRN PLAINS CLOSED LOW AS ENERGY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE TODAY. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAS
WEAKENED BUT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOIST
AIR MASS...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER WEST IN ERN UTAH.
INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN PLAIN CLOSED LOWS DIMINISHES
TONIGHT...THEREFORE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TOWARD
THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD ON TUESDAY AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR
INTO WRN COLORADO. EXPECT TO BE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THESE PULSE TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN AS THEY ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MORE
SUN AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...EXPECT RECOVERING TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AROUND
SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE INCREASE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTERACTS WITH RIDGE
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN UT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO WESTERN CO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL MTNS.
MODELS SHOW SOME LIFTING AVAILABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH
MOISTURE APPEARS TO ONLY BE AVAILABLE AT HIGH ALTITUDES SUGGESTING
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THOUGH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH
09Z. FROM 18Z TO 03Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND LOCALIZED BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. KEGE AND KASE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA PULLING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BEGINNING TOMORROW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL
000
FXUS65 KGJT 202145
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST AREA IMPACTED BY NRN PLAINS CLOSED LOW AS ENERGY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE TODAY. THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAS
WEAKENED BUT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOIST
AIR MASS...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER WEST IN ERN UTAH.
INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN PLAIN CLOSED LOWS DIMINISHES
TONIGHT...THEREFORE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TOWARD
THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD ON TUESDAY AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR
INTO WRN COLORADO. EXPECT TO BE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THESE PULSE TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN AS THEY ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MORE
SUN AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...EXPECT RECOVERING TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AROUND
SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE INCREASE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTERACTS WITH RIDGE
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN UT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO WESTERN CO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL MTNS.
MODELS SHOW SOME LIFTING AVAILABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH
MOISTURE APPEARS TO ONLY BE AVAILABLE AT HIGH ALTITUDES SUGGESTING
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TIL 03Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. SHOWERS WILL BE
LESS NUMEROUS AT THE DESERT TAF SITES.
AFTER 03Z...SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL AREAS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KEGE AIRPORT AROUND DAYBREAK.
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS. KASE AND KEGE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA PULLING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BEGINNING TOMORROW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
000
FXUS65 KGJT 201745
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS PCPN HAS WEAKENED AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WILL HAMPER WARMING TODAY AND HAVE UPDATED TEMPS TO REFLECT
THIS.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE COOLED AIR MASS
FROM THE WIDESPREAD PCPN...DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
BE SLOWER BUT ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO TONIGHT. DEFORMATION AXIS WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM WYOMING TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO NEAR 8000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE BEST FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE PARK RANGE AND
FLATTOPS WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
NOON ON MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER VAIL PASS WITH
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OCCURRING LATER IN THE
MORNING WHEN HEATING WILL LESSEN IMPACT OF SNOW ON ROADS. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON
HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE NORTH. THE NAM INDICATES
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CO CENTERED FROM
03Z-09Z... ALONG WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...FAVORING THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE DIURNAL
ELEMENT FADES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE
BETTER CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE UT/CO BORDER
EARLY TUE EVENING...THEN TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDDAY WED. AS
A RESULT THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON TUE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY...THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST ON WED. THESE WILL BE BENIGN WEATHER PERIODS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BUT REMAIN SHY OF NORMAL VALUES ON TUE...THEN CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL ON WED.
A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BIG
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN VALLEYS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING
MOST TERMINAL FORECAST SITES WERE SITTING AT VFR LEVELS BUT SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING PUSHED UP THE ROARING FORK
VALLEY INTO THE ASPEN AREA. THE ENERGY DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. HEATING AND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK TO TAKE OVER FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SOURCE
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MANY OF THE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO LIFT. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL STILL BE POSS BIBLE BUT ANTICIPATE MANY OF THE
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL AND VFR
LEVELS. PASSING SHOWERS HOWEVER MAY AFFECT THE KEGE AND KASE
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA.
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT NEAR ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LEAVE
VFR LEVELS IN PLACE GOING INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS
HANGING IN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE CURRENT COOL AND MOIST PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA PULLING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN
CO BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ004-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...EH/MPM
LONG TERM...EH/MPM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
000
FXUS65 KGJT 201701
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO TONIGHT. DEFORMATION AXIS WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM WYOMING TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO NEAR 8000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE BEST FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE PARK RANGE AND
FLATTOPS WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
NOON ON MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER VAIL PASS WITH
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OCCURRING LATER IN THE
MORNING WHEN HEATING WILL LESSEN IMPACT OF SNOW ON ROADS. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON
HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE NORTH. THE NAM INDICATES
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CO CENTERED FROM
03Z-09Z... ALONG WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...FAVORING THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE DIURNAL
ELEMENT FADES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE
BETTER CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE UT/CO BORDER
EARLY TUE EVENING...THEN TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDDAY WED. AS
A RESULT THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON TUE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY...THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST ON WED. THESE WILL BE BENIGN WEATHER PERIODS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BUT REMAIN SHY OF NORMAL VALUES ON TUE...THEN CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL ON WED.
A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BIG
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN VALLEYS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING
MOST TERMINAL FORECAST SITES WERE SITTING AT VFR LEVELS BUT SOME LOW
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING PUSHED UP THE ROARING FORK
VALLEY INTO THE ASPEN AREA. THE ENERGY DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. HEATING AND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK TO TAKE OVER FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SOURCE
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MANY OF THE LOWER CLOUD BASES TO LIFT. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL STILL BE POSS BIBLE BUT ANTICIPATE MANY OF THE
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL AND VFR
LEVELS. PASSING SHOWERS HOWEVER MAY AFFECT THE KEGE AND KASE
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET WITH TEMPORARY LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA.
GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT NEAR ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LEAVE
VFR LEVELS IN PLACE GOING INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS
HANGING IN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE CURRENT COOL AND MOIST PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA PULLING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN
CO BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ004-013.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EH/MPM
LONG TERM...EH/MPM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
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