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000
FXUS65 KGJT 280514
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1014 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280514
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1014 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...BUT NO IMPACT ON AVIATION. SOME LIGHT MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...BUT NO IMPACT ON AVIATION. SOME LIGHT MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE MAY EXIST NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272217 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD MISSING ABBREVIATION IN LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272217 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD MISSING ABBREVIATION IN LONG TERM SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
PACNW AND IS THE REASON THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BREAKING AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NW DURING THE PERIOD SO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP TO
THE SE...THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ALLOWING FOR
SOME GUSTY MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. ASIDE
FROM WINDS...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WARM FRIDAY REACHING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SAT IN STABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE STORM
TRACK AND JET STREAM REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
CO VALLEYS AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT SHEARS
INLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS HANDLING A CLOSED LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE CALIF COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS
THIS LOW INLAND AS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH A BIT OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP...CROSSING ERN UT/WRN ABOUT WED FOR A
POTENTIALLY WET MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
BRINGING IT INLAND...AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY VERSUS THE GFS`S TROUGH. ECMWF EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE
INCOMING LOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH LESSER IMPACT FOR OUR AREA.
THOUGHT THE GFS HAS SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND KEPT THE
BETTER POPS ON WED PER GFS...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO FLIGHT
CONCERNS AS ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SOME MTN
TOP GUSTS OF 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY MOUNTAINS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 271720
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH SOME MTN
TOP WINDS MAY REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. ASIDE FROM THAT...FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 271720
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1020 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH SOME MTN
TOP WINDS MAY REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES. ASIDE FROM THAT...FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271045
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 40+ KTS NEAR
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271045
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE OVER
IDAHO AND NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
AROUND NOON TODAY...BUT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...BUT WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH AND
COLORADO TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY PLACES TODAY AND FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WSW FLOW
ALOFT. SHRTWV ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
LIKELY CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FROM VAIL
PASS NORTHWARD TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE THE DRY CONDITIONS
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE AND DRIVES
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN EURO HAS DROPPED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE PATTERN SHOWING MORE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...KEEPING
THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SLIDING OVER US. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE WILL SEE
SOME IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS STILL IN QUESTION. MILD LATE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 40+ KTS NEAR
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 270523
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1023 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 270523
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1023 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262338
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262338
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 262157
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE MTNS FROM AROUND STEAMBOAT SPGS DOWN
THE CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN DRIER NW FLOW AND
AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO EVENING FOR THIS AREA PER THE 12Z
HIGH RESOLUTION ARW/NMM MODELS. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE.

THIS NEXT STORM WAS APPARENT OFF THE THE B.C./PAC NW COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FEED
INTO WA/OR/ID. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLATTENS THU AS AN UPPER
JET MAX MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME WIND ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THROUGH THU
NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW REPLACES THE NWLY FLOW OF TODAY. MODELS
KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY ON THU...HOWEVER... SHOWING
PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR NORTH THOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM ACROSS NE UT/NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING A MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH LOW AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ALONG EACH
COAST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ON SAT AS
ENERGY DROPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH SUN AS A KICKER LOW CUTS OFF AND DROPS INTO
POSITION WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENERGY WITH
THE NORTHERN TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL. BY SUN AFTERNOON A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...
HELPED BY THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

THE PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
ACTIVITY. BY MIDWEEK THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ONSHORE. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DETAILS...BUT AGREE IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO ITS PACIFIC
ORIGIN. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE CWA
ON A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
12 HOURS LATER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT MORE
AMPLIFIED. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON THE CONSERVATIVE OR LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT TO BUMP UP
POPS.

THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE MILD WEST...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS COULD BE
AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SEASONABLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM K3MW TO KMYP
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHSN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 03Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BECOMING WESTERLY ON THU. AT THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 261908
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1208 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

W FLOW CONTINUES BUT SNOTELS AND WEBCAMS IMPLY A DECREASING TREND
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS DOWN THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON . REMAINING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT NOON AND THIS
LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM K3MW TO KMYP INTO THE AFTERNOON...OBSCURING MTNS AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT MTN TOP OVER THE NRN MTNS (K3MW) THROUGH THU
MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 261908
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1208 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT NOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

W FLOW CONTINUES BUT SNOTELS AND WEBCAMS IMPLY A DECREASING TREND
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS DOWN THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON . REMAINING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT NOON AND THIS
LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM K3MW TO KMYP INTO THE AFTERNOON...OBSCURING MTNS AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT MTN TOP OVER THE NRN MTNS (K3MW) THROUGH THU
MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 261708
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

W FLOW CONTINUES BUT SNOTELS AND WEBCAMS IMPLY A DECREASING TREND
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS DOWN THE CENTRAL DIVIDE. LATEST HRRR
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO THE
AFTERNOON . REMAINING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT NOON AND THIS
LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM K3MW TO KMYP INTO THE AFTERNOON...OBSCURING MTNS AT
TIMES. HOWEVER...FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT MTN TOP OVER THE NRN MTNS (K3MW) THROUGH THU
MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 261033
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
333 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT IS EASING UP WINDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THIS MORNING BEFORE DWINDLING RAPIDLY AROUND NOONTIME.
CURRENT SATELLITE OVER THE ROCKIES INDICATES MANY POCKETS OF
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS BEING FUELED BY THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SPEC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL
QUITE HIGH STILL 3 K/JG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTING WINTER WX ADVISORIES AND THE
ZONE 4 WARNING TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ENDING TIME OF NOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST IMPACT AREA THIS MORNING VAIL PASS DUE TO A HIGH
TRAVEL DAY. DO EXPECT SNOW TO END ALONG I-70 BY NOON TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES TO THE EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER UNEVENTFUL DAY AND GOOD FOR TRAVELING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING SLIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THIS
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH
LOWER VALLEYS LACKING SNOW COVER...MORNING INVERSIONS SHOULD BREAK
...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS
CHALLENGED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEK. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED ONCE AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF A DIGGING PACIFIC LOW. THIS COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE
ABOVE MENTION PACIFIC SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING AS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP ANY POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG-KASE-KGUC UNTIL 18Z THIS
MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF AN EXITING STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 18Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. THE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260852
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
152 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE DECISION TO CANCEL WINTER STORM ADVISORY FOR ZONE 12 AND FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 10 AS SNOW HAS ENDED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ANY FURTHER. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR VAIL
PASS AS SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND THE IMPACT OF TRAVEL WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH
NOON...AS WELL AS ZONES 4 AND 13.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

POCKETS OF LLWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KVEL...KASE AND KEGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STRONG NW WINDS GRADUALLY LET
UP OVERNIGHT.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MTN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH ABOUT NOON TOMORROW BEFORE
CLEARING OUT. STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS OF UTAH AND COLORADO
TONIGHT WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260852
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
152 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE DECISION TO CANCEL WINTER STORM ADVISORY FOR ZONE 12 AND FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 10 AS SNOW HAS ENDED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ANY FURTHER. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR VAIL
PASS AS SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND THE IMPACT OF TRAVEL WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH
NOON...AS WELL AS ZONES 4 AND 13.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

POCKETS OF LLWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KVEL...KASE AND KEGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STRONG NW WINDS GRADUALLY LET
UP OVERNIGHT.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MTN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH ABOUT NOON TOMORROW BEFORE
CLEARING OUT. STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS OF UTAH AND COLORADO
TONIGHT WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260530
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1030 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

POCKETS OF LLWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KVEL...KASE AND KEGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STRONG NW WINDS GRADUALLY LET
UP OVERNIGHT.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MTN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH ABOUT NOON TOMORROW BEFORE
CLEARING OUT. STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS OF UTAH AND COLORADO
TONIGHT WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260530
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1030 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

POCKETS OF LLWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KVEL...KASE AND KEGE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STRONG NW WINDS GRADUALLY LET
UP OVERNIGHT.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MTN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH ABOUT NOON TOMORROW BEFORE
CLEARING OUT. STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS OF UTAH AND COLORADO
TONIGHT WILL CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JAM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260408
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR DOWNWIND FROM NEARBY MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE ABATING WED MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...KEGE...KASE AND
KVEL (PIREP FROM NEARBY ROOSEVELT REPORTED WIND SHEAR).

MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH SNOW AND FOG FOR THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE DIVIDE. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED
WHEN CIGS WILL RISE WITH IMPROVING VIS. OCCASIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT KASE WITH SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF KEGE.

FOR THE NON MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260408
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR DOWNWIND FROM NEARBY MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE ABATING WED MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...KEGE...KASE AND
KVEL (PIREP FROM NEARBY ROOSEVELT REPORTED WIND SHEAR).

MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH SNOW AND FOG FOR THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE DIVIDE. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED
WHEN CIGS WILL RISE WITH IMPROVING VIS. OCCASIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT KASE WITH SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF KEGE.

FOR THE NON MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260408
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR DOWNWIND FROM NEARBY MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE ABATING WED MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...KEGE...KASE AND
KVEL (PIREP FROM NEARBY ROOSEVELT REPORTED WIND SHEAR).

MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH SNOW AND FOG FOR THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE DIVIDE. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED
WHEN CIGS WILL RISE WITH IMPROVING VIS. OCCASIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT KASE WITH SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF KEGE.

FOR THE NON MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 260408
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS RELATIVELY MILD. RAISED MINS AT A FEW
LOCALES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR DOWNWIND FROM NEARBY MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE ABATING WED MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...KEGE...KASE AND
KVEL (PIREP FROM NEARBY ROOSEVELT REPORTED WIND SHEAR).

MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH SNOW AND FOG FOR THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE DIVIDE. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED
WHEN CIGS WILL RISE WITH IMPROVING VIS. OCCASIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT KASE WITH SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF KEGE.

FOR THE NON MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260119
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR DOWNWIND FROM NEARBY MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE ABATING WED MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...KEGE...KASE AND
KVEL (PIREP FROM NEARBY ROOSEVELT REPORTED WIND SHEAR).

MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH SNOW AND FOG FOR THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE DIVIDE. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED
WHEN CIGS WILL RISE WITH IMPROVING VIS. OCCASIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT KASE WITH SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF KEGE.

FOR THE NON MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 260119
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

MOISTURE FLUX RISES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OVER NW COLORADO AS
A SHORT WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
WEST TO EAST GRADIENT ALONG THE DIVIDE IS PROMINENT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS WELL AND THIS WILL HELP OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL.
COLD FREEZING AIR TRAPPED IN THE YAMPA RIVER BASIN DEFINITELY
HELPS AND KEEPS THE AIR MASS SATURATED. NAM12/RAP13 SHOWING HEFTY
QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE PARK RANGE...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GORE RANGE. BOOSTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AND
THAT PUSHED ZONE 4 INTO WARNING RANGE. WEB CAMS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.
REGARDING ZONE 12...WEB CAMS IN THIS ZONE SHOWED OBSCURED
MOUNTAINS. REMOTE SENSORS INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS WELL
AND ELECTED TO HOIST THE ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR DOWNWIND FROM NEARBY MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE ABATING WED MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...KEGE...KASE AND
KVEL (PIREP FROM NEARBY ROOSEVELT REPORTED WIND SHEAR).

MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH SNOW AND FOG FOR THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE DIVIDE. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED
WHEN CIGS WILL RISE WITH IMPROVING VIS. OCCASIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT KASE WITH SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF KEGE.

FOR THE NON MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ005-010-
     012-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 252150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 252150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 252150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC/JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 252150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC/JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251715
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND AS OF 3AM VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
OVERRUNNING EVENT...PACKED WITH MOISTURE BUT FAST MOVING AND QUITE
DEPENDENT ON OROGRAPHICS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW. THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SUB-ADVISORY SNOW THIS MORNING BUT
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOCUS ON THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.
ADDED STEAMBOAT AREA TO ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AND IN FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR THE TOWN
AND SURROUNDINGS.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

RISING HEIGHTS WILL SHIFT DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING. WARMING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...
ALTHOUGH LACK OF SNOW COVER IN LOWER VALLEYS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. FLAT RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTED
NORTH. THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT
WITH WITH THE EVOLUTIONS OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ECMWF COMING IN DEEPER AND SLOWER CLOSING A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS DRAGGING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC/JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251715
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND AS OF 3AM VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
OVERRUNNING EVENT...PACKED WITH MOISTURE BUT FAST MOVING AND QUITE
DEPENDENT ON OROGRAPHICS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW. THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SUB-ADVISORY SNOW THIS MORNING BUT
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOCUS ON THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.
ADDED STEAMBOAT AREA TO ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AND IN FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR THE TOWN
AND SURROUNDINGS.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

RISING HEIGHTS WILL SHIFT DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING. WARMING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...
ALTHOUGH LACK OF SNOW COVER IN LOWER VALLEYS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. FLAT RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTED
NORTH. THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT
WITH WITH THE EVOLUTIONS OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ECMWF COMING IN DEEPER AND SLOWER CLOSING A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS DRAGGING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC/JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 251108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND AS OF 3AM VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
OVERRUNNING EVENT...PACKED WITH MOISTURE BUT FAST MOVING AND QUITE
DEPENDENT ON OROGRAPHICS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW. THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SUB-ADVISORY SNOW THIS MORNING BUT
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOCUS ON THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.
ADDED STEAMBOAT AREA TO ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AND IN FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR THE TOWN
AND SURROUNDINGS.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

RISING HEIGHTS WILL SHIFT DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING. WARMING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...
ALTHOUGH LACK OF SNOW COVER IN LOWER VALLEYS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. FLAT RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTED
NORTH. THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT
WITH WITH THE EVOLUTIONS OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ECMWG COMING IN DEEPER AND SLOWER CLOSING A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS DRAGGING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL OVERTAKE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING BELOW
IFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS BETWEEN 18Z
AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXCEEDING 45
KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR
KSBS AND KHDN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 251108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND AS OF 3AM VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
OVERRUNNING EVENT...PACKED WITH MOISTURE BUT FAST MOVING AND QUITE
DEPENDENT ON OROGRAPHICS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW. THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SUB-ADVISORY SNOW THIS MORNING BUT
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOCUS ON THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.
ADDED STEAMBOAT AREA TO ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AND IN FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR THE TOWN
AND SURROUNDINGS.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

RISING HEIGHTS WILL SHIFT DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING. WARMING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...
ALTHOUGH LACK OF SNOW COVER IN LOWER VALLEYS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. FLAT RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTED
NORTH. THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT
WITH WITH THE EVOLUTIONS OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ECMWG COMING IN DEEPER AND SLOWER CLOSING A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS DRAGGING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL OVERTAKE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING BELOW
IFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS BETWEEN 18Z
AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXCEEDING 45
KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR
KSBS AND KHDN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




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