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000
FXUS65 KGJT 241043
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT MECHANISMS AID IN THE CHANGING OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. FIRST...A WEATHER SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY
REACHING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW
TO THE NORTHCENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
TODAY. THE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL OCCURRING...SNOW
RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH SO CONTINUED WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY.

A SECOND SYSTEM RIDING THE JET STREAM IS MOVING ONSHORE WASHINGTON
STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS EAST. THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL PACK SIMILAR MOISTURE TO THE STORM THIS
PAST WEEKEND...ABOVE 3.2 K/G...HOWEVER WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES SMALL...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE QUITE RELIANT ON OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THEREFORE...AM
ANTICIPATING THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN TO RECEIVE THE
BULK OF SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE
WITH 12+ AT THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LIFT PROVIDED ALMOST SOLELY BY OROGRAPHICS
DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WESTERLY 7H FLOW. GENTLE LAPSE RATES WILL
INHIBIT MORE PRODUCTIVE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS TOTALING 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY IN THESE
AREAS WHICH COULD MAKE THE PASSES DIFFICULT TO TRAVERSE AT TIMES.
GIVEN EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH SPANS THE PERIOD
FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THANKSGIVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FLAT RIDGE FORMS OVER THE AREA. PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT
MIDWEEK...RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM THE ELKHEAD RANGE TO THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTH. SNOW WILL IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...KASE...AND
KTEX BRINGING ABOUT PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY SLIM FOR OTHER TAF SITES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-010-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 241043
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT MECHANISMS AID IN THE CHANGING OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. FIRST...A WEATHER SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY
REACHING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW
TO THE NORTHCENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
TODAY. THE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL OCCURRING...SNOW
RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH SO CONTINUED WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY.

A SECOND SYSTEM RIDING THE JET STREAM IS MOVING ONSHORE WASHINGTON
STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS EAST. THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL PACK SIMILAR MOISTURE TO THE STORM THIS
PAST WEEKEND...ABOVE 3.2 K/G...HOWEVER WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES SMALL...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE QUITE RELIANT ON OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THEREFORE...AM
ANTICIPATING THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN TO RECEIVE THE
BULK OF SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE
WITH 12+ AT THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LIFT PROVIDED ALMOST SOLELY BY OROGRAPHICS
DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WESTERLY 7H FLOW. GENTLE LAPSE RATES WILL
INHIBIT MORE PRODUCTIVE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS TOTALING 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY IN THESE
AREAS WHICH COULD MAKE THE PASSES DIFFICULT TO TRAVERSE AT TIMES.
GIVEN EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH SPANS THE PERIOD
FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THANKSGIVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FLAT RIDGE FORMS OVER THE AREA. PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT
MIDWEEK...RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM THE ELKHEAD RANGE TO THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTH. SNOW WILL IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...KASE...AND
KTEX BRINGING ABOUT PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY SLIM FOR OTHER TAF SITES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-010-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 240636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1136 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z.
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMMON...INCLUDING THE SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES AT KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX. SNOW LOWERING
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATAD TAF
SITES...INCLUDING KGJT...KRIL AND KMTJ. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
RISING OR DISSIPATING CIGS IS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 240025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 240025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DIMINISHED QUICKLY AS THE SUNSET AND THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CO MTNS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WE HAVE PULLED DOWN
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. THE NW CO MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. ALL THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
MAY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS OF 20-35 MPH.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AGAIN ON MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 6 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-
     013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 232154
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO HAVE ONLY HAD ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS FALL QUICKLY INTO ALL VALLEY
BOTTOMS WITH SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL TUESDAY.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LESS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES
THERE UNTIL 10PM.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRAND
MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL ALSO SEE FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY EVALUATE IF
HIGHLIGHTS ARE STILL NEEDED THERE INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG CO NW-FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BY TUESDAY THE TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF COLORADO LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN CO. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
AND IN WY. A FEW SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES WILL ALSO TRAVEL THROUGH THE
FLOW AND HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
CO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL PUSH THE
MOIST AIR AND BETTER JET SUPPORT TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EVENING.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AGAIN AS
ANOTHER STORM ENTERS THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN IS MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY. THE STORM MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY SKIRTING CO. FOR NOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AND SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE INDICATED BY MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO AND IF THE MOISTURE DROPS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RIDGING BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SPINS UP OFF THE PAC
NW COAST. THIS WOULD LEND ITSELF TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING VIS BLO 3SM
CIGS BLO 030 THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE 06-15Z IN
KASE AND KEGE.

THE REMAINING TAF SITES...KVEL KGJT KCNY KMTJ...WILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFT 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ008-
     018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231912
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1212 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH RADAR RETURNS SHRINKING TO THE EAST...WE HAVE PULLED DOWN THE
ADVISORIES IN FAR WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS
PLATEAU...AND THE MONTROSE-GUNNISON AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CENTRAL AZ-NM. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED NEAR PAGOSA-WOLF CREEK PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE EXITING FRONT. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE HAD PASSED
INTO SE CO AND THE SECOND WAS WORKING OVER NW CO THIS AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS SYSTEM BUT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
REMAINS AROUND 5000FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ADVISORIES IN AND AROUND THE NW SAN JUAN MTNS
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CERRO SUMMIT AND RED MTN PASS UNTIL
SUNSET. THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK MTNS TOO ARE NOT FAVORED TO
RECEIVE MUCH SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO MAY
PULL DOWN THE WARNINGS THERE SOMETIME THIS EVENING. FOG MAY FORM
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR...ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND ALONG N-FACING
SLOPES IN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE GRAND MESA...WEST ELKS...NW SAN JUANS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
PERSISTENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON SUB-ADVISORY...2-5 INCHES...THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT PERIODS OF VIS BLO 1SM CIGS BLO 010
THROUGH 00Z...THEN VIS BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 025 THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECT FOG TO
FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AND NORTH- FACING SLOPES TO
REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATES...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231800
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CENTRAL AZ-NM. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED NEAR PAGOSA-WOLF CREEK PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE EXITING FRONT. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE HAD PASSED
INTO SE CO AND THE SECOND WAS WORKING OVER NW CO THIS AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS SYSTEM BUT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
REMAINS AROUND 5000FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ADVISORIES IN AND AROUND THE NW SAN JUAN MTNS
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CERRO SUMMIT AND RED MTN PASS UNTIL
SUNSET. THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK MTNS TOO ARE NOT FAVORED TO
RECEIVE MUCH SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO MAY
PULL DOWN THE WARNINGS THERE SOMETIME THIS EVENING. FOG MAY FORM
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR...ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND ALONG N-FACING
SLOPES IN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE GRAND MESA...WEST ELKS...NW SAN JUANS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
PERSISTENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON SUB-ADVISORY...2-5 INCHES...THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT PERIODS OF VIS BLO 1SM CIGS BLO 010
THROUGH 00Z...THEN VIS BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 025 THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECT FOG TO
FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AND NORTH- FACING SLOPES TO
REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231800
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CENTRAL AZ-NM. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE OBSERVED NEAR PAGOSA-WOLF CREEK PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE EXITING FRONT. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE HAD PASSED
INTO SE CO AND THE SECOND WAS WORKING OVER NW CO THIS AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS AFTERNOONS SYSTEM BUT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/INSTABILITY AND NW OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN
COLORADO WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
REMAINS AROUND 5000FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A DOWNTURN IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH
WARM ADVECTION AT 500MB. OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE NW CO MTNS BUT THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL SEE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE ADVISORIES IN AND AROUND THE NW SAN JUAN MTNS
WILL END THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CERRO SUMMIT AND RED MTN PASS UNTIL
SUNSET. THE GRAND MESA AND WEST ELK MTNS TOO ARE NOT FAVORED TO
RECEIVE MUCH SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO MAY
PULL DOWN THE WARNINGS THERE SOMETIME THIS EVENING. FOG MAY FORM
IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR...ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND ALONG N-FACING
SLOPES IN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONGER AND COLDER DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WORKS THROUGH
WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
NW CO MTNS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE GRAND MESA...WEST ELKS...NW SAN JUANS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE
PERSISTENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON SUB-ADVISORY...2-5 INCHES...THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL TO KPSO...INCLUDING KRIL KEGE
KASE KMTJ KTEX...EXPECT PERIODS OF VIS BLO 1SM CIGS BLO 010
THROUGH 00Z...THEN VIS BLO 3SM CIGS BLO 025 THROUGH NOON MONDAY.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BUT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE BRIEF. EXPECT FOG TO
FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AND NORTH- FACING SLOPES TO
REMAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231314
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
614 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
BUT FACE LIMITED CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF COLORADO.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231058
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
BUT FACE LIMITED CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 231058
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
BUT FACE LIMITED CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230733
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230733
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN. HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230455
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN IN THE LOWER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE VALLEY BOTTOMS BY AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
CIGS/VSBY DROPPING INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TAF
SITES MOST AFFECTED WILL BE KASE...KTEX...KRIL...KEGE. ALSO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND EXPOSED AREAS.

THESE STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230402
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSED A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW IN THE TOWN OF VERNAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORY
FOR THAT ZONE AS LOCAL DISPATCH REPORTS NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK IT BETTER TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS CONSIDERING DRIVING TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
CURRENT WINTER HIGHLIGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
736 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 230236
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
736 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WRN WY AND IS DRAPED DOWN TO
THE SE THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE NUMBER HAS DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING...OR
HAVING REPORTED...SHOWERS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM12
INITIALIZED WELL AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NRN AREAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE GRAND VALLEY AROUND 0300L AND THEN THE SAN
JUANS BY DAYBREAK. SNOTELS REPORTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
PARK/GORE RANGES WHILE ONE SNOTEL IN ERN UT REPORTING AROUND 6
INCHES. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURING CURRENT WEATHER WELL SO MADE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-011-
     014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 222255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 222219
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 222219
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT OVER NW UT AND
NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO WITH SOME SHOWERS REPORTED ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 EAST OF GRAND JUNCTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST CO BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN DRAG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z AND 12Z. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS AT
MTN TOP LEVEL WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
TIME SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF BEST SNOWFALL FROM WEST
TO NNW FACING SLOPES.

MOISTURE STEADILY ERODES SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED SATURATED LAYER REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER ARE IN THE
FAVORABLE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH A STRONG LAPSE RATE. IN
THESE CONDITIONS OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DIMINISH OVER THE VALLEYS AND
PLATEAUS. THE SOUNDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BECOMES
EVEN DRIER SO THERE A PAUSE IN SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MONDAY IN NW FLOW A STRONG COLD DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED -33C COLD CORE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WITH THE JET DIGGING THROUGH UTAH
DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. BUT COLD ADVECTION...NW
OROGRAPHICS...AND THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER AT MTN TOP LEVEL
(-12C AT 700MB) WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. THE
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH THE NW SAN
JUAN MTNS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY. HAVE RAISED POPS THERE. THE SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE DRY FOR NOVEMBER...IN THE 20:1 RANGE.

SNOWFALL FINALLY DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET SLIDES SE. THE MOIST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER
SHRINKS TOP DOWN INTO TUESDAY SO SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INLAND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. THIS PROMISES
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING. SATURDAY MODEL TIMING BREAKS
SOMEWHAT WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE NEXT TROUGH INTO WA-OR WHILE THE
EC HOLDS IT OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WE MAY HAVE SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT ABOUT 6500 FEET THIS EVENING
THEN STEADILY DECREASE TO VALLEY BOTTOMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TAF SITES NORTH OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFFECTING
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FROM
ABOUT 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING.
ALSO...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPOSED AREAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
956 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NE UTAH...THEN SPREAD EAST AND
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z...
THOUGH INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAUSED AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE UINTA MTS AND THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z AND INCREASE THEREAFTER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AT ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL BECOME HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION.

TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 221656
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
956 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NE UTAH...THEN SPREAD EAST AND
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS
THE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z...
THOUGH INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAUSED AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE UINTA MTS AND THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z AND INCREASE THEREAFTER. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AT ABOUT 6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO
VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL BECOME HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION.

TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221113
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE SYSTEM
SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TOWARD NOON OBSCURING
THE HIGHER PEAKS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING NEAR
6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING
SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL
BECOME HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION. TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND
KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW
OVERNIGHT. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221113
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
PROMISES TO BRING A GOOD ROUND OF SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY...AND TO
SOME OF THE HIGHER AND/OR FAVORED VALLEYS. VARIOUS WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE SCHEDULED FOR
MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY
TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE JET DROPS SOUTHEAST-WARD INTO NEW MEXICO.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN
WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT AS THE 500 MB -32C COLD POOL MOVES OVER
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS FOR SLOPES AND DRAINAGES FACING THOSE
DIRECTIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FT...THEN LOWER QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE A LULL
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SNOW
ACCUMULATING IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO WE SHOULD SEE SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION SUN AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER
THE SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. SEE THE LONGTERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE UNSETTLED AIR MASS IN THE HEART OF THE STORM
TONIGHT WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE BEST
COOLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SNOW WILL CEASE OVER THE SAN
JUANS SO WILL ALLOW SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
01Z/MONDAY ACROSS COLORADO/S SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CAUSE SNOWFALL TO AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK RESULTING IN LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW.

SNOWFALL FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STOPS DIGGING AND BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME WARMING ALOFT AND
DECREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT.

ECMWF REVERSED ITSELF AT MIDWEEK NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS40 WHICH INDICATED A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WHILE KEEPING SNOW AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER AS THE SYSTEM
SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS TOWARD NOON OBSCURING
THE HIGHER PEAKS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING NEAR
6500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL SWEEP
RAPIDLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING
SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO VALLEY BOTTOMS. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL
BECOME HEAVY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION. TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KRIL...KEGE...AND
KASE...WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS IN SNOW
OVERNIGHT. DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR KMTJ AND KTEX. IN CONTRAST...KVEL IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE KDRO IS
UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ANY CONDITIONS BELOW VFR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST MONDAY
     FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 220507
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1007 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AT 700 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EASTERN UTAH AROUND NOONTIME ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK REACHING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING A
BIT BY 30 DEGREES OR SO ON WIND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...SO ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO THOSE WE FEEL QUITE
CONFIDENT WILL CREATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MOIST AND ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
CO AND NORTHEASTERN UT...AS WELL AS THE CO NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN UT AND SW CO WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TO
THE EAST AND THE FLOW TAKES ON THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK ENHANCES THE UPLIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE SHOULD HOVER AROUND 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE BUT A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM EAST. BY WED AFTERNOON ONLY
OROGRAPHIC REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW MTS OF
CO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA CONSIDERABLY...ENDING ALL PRECIP AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO FLIGHT CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT...BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL BEGIN SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
IN ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS. TAF SITES WILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR
BEFORE AROUND 00Z SUN...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.
AIRFIELDS IN NORTHWEST COLORADO COULD SEE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BEGINNING BY AROUND 21Z SAT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AS SNOW DEVELOPS AND SPREADS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 220507
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1007 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AT 700 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EASTERN UTAH AROUND NOONTIME ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK REACHING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING A
BIT BY 30 DEGREES OR SO ON WIND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...SO ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO THOSE WE FEEL QUITE
CONFIDENT WILL CREATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MOIST AND ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
CO AND NORTHEASTERN UT...AS WELL AS THE CO NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN UT AND SW CO WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TO
THE EAST AND THE FLOW TAKES ON THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK ENHANCES THE UPLIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE SHOULD HOVER AROUND 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE BUT A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM EAST. BY WED AFTERNOON ONLY
OROGRAPHIC REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW MTS OF
CO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA CONSIDERABLY...ENDING ALL PRECIP AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO FLIGHT CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT...BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL BEGIN SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
IN ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS. TAF SITES WILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR
BEFORE AROUND 00Z SUN...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.
AIRFIELDS IN NORTHWEST COLORADO COULD SEE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BEGINNING BY AROUND 21Z SAT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AS SNOW DEVELOPS AND SPREADS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212339
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AT 700 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EASTERN UTAH AROUND NOONTIME ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK REACHING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING A
BIT BY 30 DEGREES OR SO ON WIND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...SO ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO THOSE WE FEEL QUITE
CONFIDENT WILL CREATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MOIST AND ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
CO AND NORTHEASTERN UT...AS WELL AS THE CO NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN UT AND SW CO WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TO
THE EAST AND THE FLOW TAKES ON THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK ENHANCES THE UPLIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE SHOULD HOVER AROUND 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE BUT A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM EAST. BY WED AFTERNOON ONLY
OROGRAPHIC REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW MTS OF
CO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA CONSIDERABLY...ENDING ALL PRECIP AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO FLIGHT CONCERNS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TOMORROW. AFTER THAT...BKN TO
OVC SKIES WILL START OVERSPREADING THE AREA THOUGH THEY WILL STAY
VFR. SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER
00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 212339
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
439 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AT 700 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EASTERN UTAH AROUND NOONTIME ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK REACHING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING A
BIT BY 30 DEGREES OR SO ON WIND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...SO ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO THOSE WE FEEL QUITE
CONFIDENT WILL CREATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MOIST AND ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
CO AND NORTHEASTERN UT...AS WELL AS THE CO NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN UT AND SW CO WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TO
THE EAST AND THE FLOW TAKES ON THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK ENHANCES THE UPLIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE SHOULD HOVER AROUND 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE BUT A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM EAST. BY WED AFTERNOON ONLY
OROGRAPHIC REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW MTS OF
CO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA CONSIDERABLY...ENDING ALL PRECIP AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO FLIGHT CONCERNS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TOMORROW. AFTER THAT...BKN TO
OVC SKIES WILL START OVERSPREADING THE AREA THOUGH THEY WILL STAY
VFR. SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER
00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AT 700 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EASTERN UTAH AROUND NOONTIME ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK REACHING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING A
BIT BY 30 DEGREES OR SO ON WIND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...SO ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO THOSE WE FEEL QUITE
CONFIDENT WILL CREATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MOIST AND ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
CO AND NORTHEASTERN UT...AS WELL AS THE CO NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN UT AND SW CO WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TO
THE EAST AND THE FLOW TAKES ON THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK ENHANCES THE UPLIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE SHOULD HOVER AROUND 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE BUT A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM EAST. BY WED AFTERNOON ONLY
OROGRAPHIC REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW MTS OF
CO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA CONSIDERABLY...ENDING ALL PRECIP AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS VR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HI LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...BUT PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AT 700 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EASTERN UTAH AROUND NOONTIME ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK REACHING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING A
BIT BY 30 DEGREES OR SO ON WIND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...SO ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO THOSE WE FEEL QUITE
CONFIDENT WILL CREATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MOIST AND ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
CO AND NORTHEASTERN UT...AS WELL AS THE CO NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN UT AND SW CO WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TO
THE EAST AND THE FLOW TAKES ON THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK ENHANCES THE UPLIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE SHOULD HOVER AROUND 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE BUT A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM EAST. BY WED AFTERNOON ONLY
OROGRAPHIC REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW MTS OF
CO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA CONSIDERABLY...ENDING ALL PRECIP AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS VR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HI LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...BUT PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
954 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY. REMOVED CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEARLY ALL OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOISTURE IN ARIZONA IS
STAYING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING. COULD STILL
BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE LOW CENTER MAKING IT TO THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER WE CAN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S READINGS.

THEN ON SATURDAY...A MORE INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD
AS A STRONG...MOIST AND UNSETTLED PACIFIC FLOW SPREADS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST CORNER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
MID-AFTERNOON SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
REPRESENTS THE ONSET OF A RATHER PROLONGED WET AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE BRUNT OF THE STORM IN LATER
PERIODS READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER DUE TO
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

FOR THIS FORECAST...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMING TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WHICH WILL END SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EXPECT SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. JET
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 110 KT JET NOSING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MECHANISM EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO LOWEST
VALLEY BOTTOMS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE REGION RESULTING
IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY STRONG 7H FLOW AND SOME JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW...OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BY THE TIME THIS PROTRACTED
EVENT WINDS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THESE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON FAVORED
PEAKS AND RIDGES. WHAT/S LESS CERTAIN ARE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WHERE SNOW PROBABLY LESS PERSISTENT. ADDITIONAL HILITES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER DROPPING TO LEVELS FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FORTUNATELY...CLOUDS AND DIABATIC HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMATION OF SNOW WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO SOME
DEGREE...THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS INDICATED SNOW WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLOWING POLAR JET FINALLY PUSHES
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LAPSE RATES EASE. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. WHERE MODELS
WERE ONCE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST FOR MIDWEEK...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW FAVOR A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH DRY
AND MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS VR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HI LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...BUT PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
954 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY. REMOVED CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEARLY ALL OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOISTURE IN ARIZONA IS
STAYING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING. COULD STILL
BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE LOW CENTER MAKING IT TO THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER WE CAN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S READINGS.

THEN ON SATURDAY...A MORE INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD
AS A STRONG...MOIST AND UNSETTLED PACIFIC FLOW SPREADS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST CORNER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
MID-AFTERNOON SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
REPRESENTS THE ONSET OF A RATHER PROLONGED WET AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE BRUNT OF THE STORM IN LATER
PERIODS READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER DUE TO
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

FOR THIS FORECAST...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMING TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WHICH WILL END SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EXPECT SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. JET
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 110 KT JET NOSING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MECHANISM EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO LOWEST
VALLEY BOTTOMS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE REGION RESULTING
IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY STRONG 7H FLOW AND SOME JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW...OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BY THE TIME THIS PROTRACTED
EVENT WINDS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THESE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON FAVORED
PEAKS AND RIDGES. WHAT/S LESS CERTAIN ARE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WHERE SNOW PROBABLY LESS PERSISTENT. ADDITIONAL HILITES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER DROPPING TO LEVELS FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FORTUNATELY...CLOUDS AND DIABATIC HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMATION OF SNOW WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO SOME
DEGREE...THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS INDICATED SNOW WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLOWING POLAR JET FINALLY PUSHES
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LAPSE RATES EASE. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. WHERE MODELS
WERE ONCE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST FOR MIDWEEK...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW FAVOR A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH DRY
AND MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS VR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HI LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...BUT PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211617
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
917 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY. REMOVED CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEARLY ALL OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOISTURE IN ARIZONA IS
STAYING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING. COULD STILL
BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE LOW CENTER MAKING IT TO THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER WE CAN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S READINGS.

THEN ON SATURDAY...A MORE INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD
AS A STRONG...MOIST AND UNSETTLED PACIFIC FLOW SPREADS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST CORNER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
MID-AFTERNOON SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
REPRESENTS THE ONSET OF A RATHER PROLONGED WET AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE BRUNT OF THE STORM IN LATER
PERIODS READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER DUE TO
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

FOR THIS FORECAST...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMING TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WHICH WILL END SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EXPECT SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. JET
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 110 KT JET NOSING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MECHANISM EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO LOWEST
VALLEY BOTTOMS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE REGION RESULTING
IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY STRONG 7H FLOW AND SOME JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW...OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BY THE TIME THIS PROTRACTED
EVENT WINDS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THESE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON FAVORED
PEAKS AND RIDGES. WHAT/S LESS CERTAIN ARE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WHERE SNOW PROBABLY LESS PERSISTENT. ADDITIONAL HILITES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER DROPPING TO LEVELS FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FORTUNATELY...CLOUDS AND DIABATIC HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMATION OF SNOW WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO SOME
DEGREE...THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS INDICATED SNOW WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLOWING POLAR JET FINALLY PUSHES
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LAPSE RATES EASE. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. WHERE MODELS
WERE ONCE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST FOR MIDWEEK...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW FAVOR A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH DRY
AND MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 211617
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
917 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY. REMOVED CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEARLY ALL OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOISTURE IN ARIZONA IS
STAYING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE ANTICIPATING. COULD STILL
BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE LOW CENTER MAKING IT TO THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER WE CAN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S READINGS.

THEN ON SATURDAY...A MORE INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD
AS A STRONG...MOIST AND UNSETTLED PACIFIC FLOW SPREADS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST CORNER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
MID-AFTERNOON SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
REPRESENTS THE ONSET OF A RATHER PROLONGED WET AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE BRUNT OF THE STORM IN LATER
PERIODS READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER DUE TO
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

FOR THIS FORECAST...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMING TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MIDDLE YAMPA RIVER BASIN...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WHICH WILL END SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EXPECT SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. JET
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 110 KT JET NOSING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MECHANISM EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO LOWEST
VALLEY BOTTOMS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE REGION RESULTING
IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY.

THEREAFTER...MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
MID-LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE...GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY STRONG 7H FLOW AND SOME JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW...OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BY THE TIME THIS PROTRACTED
EVENT WINDS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THESE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON FAVORED
PEAKS AND RIDGES. WHAT/S LESS CERTAIN ARE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THE HIGHER CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WHERE SNOW PROBABLY LESS PERSISTENT. ADDITIONAL HILITES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER DROPPING TO LEVELS FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FORTUNATELY...CLOUDS AND DIABATIC HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMATION OF SNOW WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO SOME
DEGREE...THOUGH LOWS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS INDICATED SNOW WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLOWING POLAR JET FINALLY PUSHES
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND LAPSE RATES EASE. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. WHERE MODELS
WERE ONCE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST FOR MIDWEEK...
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW FAVOR A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH DRY
AND MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL





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