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000
FXUS65 KGJT 301141
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO COLORADO TODAY. THE WEST TO
EAST RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...EVEN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.3 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS THREATENS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY FROM RED MTN PASS TO SLUMGULLION PASS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ADDING A
FEW DEGREES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SAN JUANS CAN OFTEN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL VALLEY INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BUT LIGHT WEST
GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT THESE STRONGER WINDS. SOUTHERN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT.
SO STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO SHRINK SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY FORM UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOT AND DRY
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

STABLE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...DIURNAL HEATING
AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COVERS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE LIGHT
FLOW PATTERN THAT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO. NEITHER AGREE ON THE EXACT DAY (EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY)
NOR INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND BOOST POPS WHEN
CONFIDENCE RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL EXPAND
TOWARD THE SW COLORADO VALLEYS AND INTO SE UTAH. MOUNTAIN CIGS MAY
FALL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING.

NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...DRY AND STABLE REGIME EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301141
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO COLORADO TODAY. THE WEST TO
EAST RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...EVEN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.3 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS THREATENS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY FROM RED MTN PASS TO SLUMGULLION PASS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ADDING A
FEW DEGREES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SAN JUANS CAN OFTEN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL VALLEY INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BUT LIGHT WEST
GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT THESE STRONGER WINDS. SOUTHERN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT.
SO STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO SHRINK SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY FORM UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOT AND DRY
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

STABLE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...DIURNAL HEATING
AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COVERS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE LIGHT
FLOW PATTERN THAT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO. NEITHER AGREE ON THE EXACT DAY (EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY)
NOR INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND BOOST POPS WHEN
CONFIDENCE RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL EXPAND
TOWARD THE SW COLORADO VALLEYS AND INTO SE UTAH. MOUNTAIN CIGS MAY
FALL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING.

NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...DRY AND STABLE REGIME EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO COLORADO TODAY. THE WEST TO
EAST RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...EVEN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.3 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS THREATENS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY FROM RED MTN PASS TO SLUMGULLION PASS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ADDING A
FEW DEGREES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SAN JUANS CAN OFTEN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL VALLEY INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BUT LIGHT WEST
GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT THESE STRONGER WINDS. SOUTHERN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT.
SO STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO SHRINK SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY FORM UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOT AND DRY
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

STABLE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...DIURNAL HEATING
AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COVERS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE LIGHT
FLOW PATTERN THAT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO. NEITHER AGREE ON THE EXACT DAY (EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY)
NOR INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND BOOST POPS WHEN
CONFIDENCE RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO COLORADO TODAY. THE WEST TO
EAST RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...EVEN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.3 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS THREATENS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY FROM RED MTN PASS TO SLUMGULLION PASS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ADDING A
FEW DEGREES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SAN JUANS CAN OFTEN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL VALLEY INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BUT LIGHT WEST
GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT THESE STRONGER WINDS. SOUTHERN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT.
SO STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO SHRINK SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY FORM UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOT AND DRY
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

STABLE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...DIURNAL HEATING
AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COVERS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE LIGHT
FLOW PATTERN THAT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO. NEITHER AGREE ON THE EXACT DAY (EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY)
NOR INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND BOOST POPS WHEN
CONFIDENCE RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO COLORADO TODAY. THE WEST TO
EAST RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...EVEN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.3 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS THREATENS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY FROM RED MTN PASS TO SLUMGULLION PASS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ADDING A
FEW DEGREES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SAN JUANS CAN OFTEN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL VALLEY INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BUT LIGHT WEST
GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT THESE STRONGER WINDS. SOUTHERN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT.
SO STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO SHRINK SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY FORM UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOT AND DRY
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

STABLE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...DIURNAL HEATING
AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COVERS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE LIGHT
FLOW PATTERN THAT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO. NEITHER AGREE ON THE EXACT DAY (EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY)
NOR INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND BOOST POPS WHEN
CONFIDENCE RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300537
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 300537
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300537
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE CO/NM BORDER WILL PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE SAN
JUAN SOUTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT CIGS AND
VIS AT KTEX AND KDRO TAF SITES AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
AFTER 21Z THU. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE CO/NM BORDER WILL PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE SAN
JUAN SOUTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT CIGS AND
VIS AT KTEX AND KDRO TAF SITES AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
AFTER 21Z THU. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...AS





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE CO/NM BORDER WILL PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE SAN
JUAN SOUTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT CIGS AND
VIS AT KTEX AND KDRO TAF SITES AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
AFTER 21Z THU. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 292156
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...
WITH STRONG RIDGING FROM NM TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THU
NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER AZ/NM...AND WILL FLOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BY
LATE THU NIGHT THE 12Z NAM SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH SOME MOISTURE EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT A WEST-EAST DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NM/AZ AND NORTH TO AROUND THE
ABAJO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATING
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER.

FOR THE DETAILS: FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND DURANGO TO
SILVERTON EASTWARD. STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FEW
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE SAN JUANS AS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE BORDER.

LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. I DO EXPECT
THE ACTIVE AREA WILL EXPAND BOTH WEST- AND NORTHWARD AS COMPARED
TO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER MOISTURE SPREADS. NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN THIS JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO SHIFT
AS FAR WEST AS PREVIOUS RUNS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BLOCKS IT FROM
THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE HIGH CENTER STAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO STREAM INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW...AND IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH CONCERNING
TIMING AND DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY SPREAD
FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE CO/NM BORDER WILL PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE SAN
JUAN SOUTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT CIGS AND
VIS AT KTEX AND KDRO TAF SITES AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
AFTER 21Z THU. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...AS





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN STARTING EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 291757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN STARTING EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...AS





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN STARTING EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...AS





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN STARTING EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...AS




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290923
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE SOUTHERN COLORADO AS MOISTURE WORKS
BACK NORTHWARD. AT THE MOMENT IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER VFR PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
ATTM TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION OR THUNDER TO TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290923
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE SOUTHERN COLORADO AS MOISTURE WORKS
BACK NORTHWARD. AT THE MOMENT IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER VFR PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
ATTM TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION OR THUNDER TO TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290923
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE SOUTHERN COLORADO AS MOISTURE WORKS
BACK NORTHWARD. AT THE MOMENT IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER VFR PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
ATTM TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION OR THUNDER TO TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290923
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE SOUTHERN COLORADO AS MOISTURE WORKS
BACK NORTHWARD. AT THE MOMENT IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER VFR PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
ATTM TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION OR THUNDER TO TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. A
FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOME OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT AT 2 PM THESE ARE VERY SCANT.

OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES HAVE REIGNED TODAY. EXPECT THESE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT LEAST...WITH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

A FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERHEAD DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP
NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES.  MORE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75 INCHES AND GREATER
ACROSS SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO WITH VALUES OF AN INCH AND GREATER
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE REGIONS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT SOUTH OF I-70
DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE PAST THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY
WITH PW VALUES 0.5 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WESTWARD
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DEEPENS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A DRIER DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL RECENTER AND BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED DAY TO
DAY UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE SOUTHERN COLORADO AS MOISTURE WORKS
BACK NORTHWARD. AT THE MOMENT IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. VFR PREVAILS THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 290446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. A
FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOME OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT AT 2 PM THESE ARE VERY SCANT.

OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES HAVE REIGNED TODAY. EXPECT THESE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT LEAST...WITH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

A FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERHEAD DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP
NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES.  MORE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75 INCHES AND GREATER
ACROSS SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO WITH VALUES OF AN INCH AND GREATER
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE REGIONS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT SOUTH OF I-70
DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE PAST THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY
WITH PW VALUES 0.5 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WESTWARD
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DEEPENS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A DRIER DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL RECENTER AND BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED DAY TO
DAY UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE SOUTHERN COLORADO AS MOISTURE WORKS
BACK NORTHWARD. AT THE MOMENT IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. VFR PREVAILS THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 282339
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
539 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. A
FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOME OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT AT 2 PM THESE ARE VERY SCANT.

OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES HAVE REIGNED TODAY. EXPECT THESE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT LEAST...WITH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

A FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERHEAD DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP
NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES.  MORE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75 INCHES AND GREATER
ACROSS SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO WITH VALUES OF AN INCH AND GREATER
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE REGIONS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT SOUTH OF I-70
DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE PAST THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY
WITH PW VALUES 0.5 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WESTWARD
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DEEPENS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A DRIER DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL RECENTER AND BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED DAY TO
DAY UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...EH+JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282339
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
539 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. A
FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOME OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT AT 2 PM THESE ARE VERY SCANT.

OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES HAVE REIGNED TODAY. EXPECT THESE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT LEAST...WITH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

A FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERHEAD DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP
NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES.  MORE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75 INCHES AND GREATER
ACROSS SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO WITH VALUES OF AN INCH AND GREATER
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE REGIONS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT SOUTH OF I-70
DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE PAST THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY
WITH PW VALUES 0.5 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WESTWARD
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DEEPENS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A DRIER DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL RECENTER AND BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED DAY TO
DAY UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...EH+JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 282040
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. A
FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOME OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT AT 2 PM THESE ARE VERY SCANT.

OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES HAVE REIGNED TODAY. EXPECT THESE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT LEAST...WITH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

A FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERHEAD DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP
NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES.  MORE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75 INCHES AND GREATER
ACROSS SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO WITH VALUES OF AN INCH AND GREATER
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE REGIONS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT SOUTH OF I-70
DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE PAST THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY
WITH PW VALUES 0.5 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WESTWARD
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DEEPENS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A DRIER DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL RECENTER AND BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED DAY TO
DAY UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED 25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND
COULD IMPACT LANDING TRAFFIC AT KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 282040
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. A
FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOME OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT AT 2 PM THESE ARE VERY SCANT.

OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES HAVE REIGNED TODAY. EXPECT THESE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT LEAST...WITH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

A FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERHEAD DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP
NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES.  MORE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75 INCHES AND GREATER
ACROSS SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO WITH VALUES OF AN INCH AND GREATER
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE REGIONS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT SOUTH OF I-70
DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE PAST THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY
WITH PW VALUES 0.5 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WESTWARD
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DEEPENS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A DRIER DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL RECENTER AND BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED DAY TO
DAY UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED 25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND
COULD IMPACT LANDING TRAFFIC AT KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 281654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER NORTH...5 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET QUADRANT OVER THE NORTH TODAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LURKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DESERT SW. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT GRADIENT.

WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE SE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT COOL
A BIT SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SEEDING THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE GETS BOOTED WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH THEN RE-POSITIONS NEAR OR WEST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
BECOME SATURATED AND WILL RECIRCULATE MOISTURE WHILE DRAWING IN
NEW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL START OUT ON
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER OUR
REGION OF A GOOD PERIOD AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER CLOUDS...HUMIDITY AND PCPN WILL IMPACT
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A TAD
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SEE HOW TRENDS WORK OUT IN LATER
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED 25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND
COULD IMPACT LANDING TRAFFIC AT KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 281654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER NORTH...5 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET QUADRANT OVER THE NORTH TODAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LURKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DESERT SW. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT GRADIENT.

WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE SE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT COOL
A BIT SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SEEDING THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE GETS BOOTED WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH THEN RE-POSITIONS NEAR OR WEST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
BECOME SATURATED AND WILL RECIRCULATE MOISTURE WHILE DRAWING IN
NEW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL START OUT ON
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER OUR
REGION OF A GOOD PERIOD AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER CLOUDS...HUMIDITY AND PCPN WILL IMPACT
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A TAD
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SEE HOW TRENDS WORK OUT IN LATER
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED 25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND
COULD IMPACT LANDING TRAFFIC AT KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280949
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER NORTH...5 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET QUADRANT OVER THE NORTH TODAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LURKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DESERT SW. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT GRADIENT.

WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE SE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT COOL
A BIT SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SEEDING THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE GETS BOOTED WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH THEN RE-POSITIONS NEAR OR WEST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
BECOME SATURATED AND WILL RECIRCULATE MOISTURE WHILE DRAWING IN
NEW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL START OUT ON
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER OUR
REGION OF A GOOD PERIOD AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER CLOUDS...HUMIDITY AND PCPN WILL IMPACT
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A TAD
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SEE HOW TRENDS WORK OUT IN LATER
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280949
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER NORTH...5 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET QUADRANT OVER THE NORTH TODAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LURKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DESERT SW. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT GRADIENT.

WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE SE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT COOL
A BIT SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SEEDING THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE GETS BOOTED WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH THEN RE-POSITIONS NEAR OR WEST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
BECOME SATURATED AND WILL RECIRCULATE MOISTURE WHILE DRAWING IN
NEW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL START OUT ON
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER OUR
REGION OF A GOOD PERIOD AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER CLOUDS...HUMIDITY AND PCPN WILL IMPACT
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A TAD
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SEE HOW TRENDS WORK OUT IN LATER
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280949
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER NORTH...5 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET QUADRANT OVER THE NORTH TODAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LURKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DESERT SW. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT GRADIENT.

WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE SE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT COOL
A BIT SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SEEDING THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE GETS BOOTED WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH THEN RE-POSITIONS NEAR OR WEST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
BECOME SATURATED AND WILL RECIRCULATE MOISTURE WHILE DRAWING IN
NEW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL START OUT ON
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER OUR
REGION OF A GOOD PERIOD AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER CLOUDS...HUMIDITY AND PCPN WILL IMPACT
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A TAD
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SEE HOW TRENDS WORK OUT IN LATER
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280949
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT SAGGED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH THE BEST COOL ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS. THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER NORTH...5 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH. EVEN WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET QUADRANT OVER THE NORTH TODAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATION
WINDS ARE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LURKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DESERT SW. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT GRADIENT.

WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP BACK INTO THE SE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT COOL
A BIT SOUTH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ENSEMBLE ANOMALY PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SEEDING THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
RIDGE GETS BOOTED WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE HIGH THEN RE-POSITIONS NEAR OR WEST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 315K TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY WITH THE MONSOON WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO POOL MOISTURE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
BECOME SATURATED AND WILL RECIRCULATE MOISTURE WHILE DRAWING IN
NEW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL START OUT ON
THE WARM AND DRY SIDE BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER OUR
REGION OF A GOOD PERIOD AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO. HOWEVER CLOUDS...HUMIDITY AND PCPN WILL IMPACT
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A TAD
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH AND SEE HOW TRENDS WORK OUT IN LATER
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORE SO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORE SO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORE SO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORE SO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED
25 MPH ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
811 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 280211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
811 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
811 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE




000
FXUS65 KGJT 280211
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
811 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT 8 PM WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHERN TOWNS...VERNAL CRAIG HAYDEN ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DRY COOL FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE BUT IS
MOST LIKELY DRAPED ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS AND WILL SAG
THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. EVENING DEWPOINTS WERE
MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH SUNSET IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THERE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH...5 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...AND LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE DRY COOL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SUNSET
AND WORK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HUMIDITY WILL QUICKLY
RECOVER. THEREFORE THE WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272317
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
517 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT
CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS
WILL BE OVER 30 MPH...AND UP TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 8PM. THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 272317
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
517 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT
CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS
WILL BE OVER 30 MPH...AND UP TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 8PM. THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272317
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
517 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PEAK WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER
18Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT
CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS
WILL BE OVER 30 MPH...AND UP TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 8PM. THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 272015
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
215 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THESE WINDS
HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND HELPED
BY DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. BUT A CORRIDOR FROM THE GRAND FLAT IN EAST-CENTRAL
UT NORTHEAST-WARD...TO THE CRAIG-BAGGS WY SEEMS TO BE UNDER THE
GUN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. CANYONLANDS AIRPORT...DOUGLAS PASS AND
SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN NW CO HAVE ALREADY REACHED WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 8 PM MDT. ALSO A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST CO AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL CO. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PROCEED ACROSS NORTHWEST CO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PORTION OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN.
BY LATE THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AIR MASS DE-
COUPLES AND THE FRONT BECOMES LESS OF A PLAYER. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE WARM READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.

WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT BACK INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES OF THE CONTIGUOUS US MOVES EAST. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE UT/WY/CO
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT ON A CAP IN
PLACE AT ABOUT 600 TO 650 MB WHERE WINDS ARE NO GREATER THAN 10
KTS UP THE COLUMN FROM THE SFC.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WILL
STRENGTHEN AND ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS ITS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SITUATES ITSELF JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE TAP GETS CAUGHT IN THE
FLOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ACROSS SW COLORADO AND SE
UTAH WED AND THURS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE LIKELY. NORTHEAST UTAH
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD
DEVELOP MORESO AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY 18Z-19Z...
WITH LINGERING WINDSHEAR ENDING AS THIS OCCURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40KTS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DECREASING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE UNTIL AROUND
04Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL AGAIN INCREASE EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT
CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS
WILL BE OVER 30 MPH...AND UP TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING. RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 8PM. THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271632
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...INCREASING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH ISOLATED POPS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
ENERGETIC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY..DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THIS
WEEK. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARK OVER HUDSON BAY REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHIFT OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST STATES TO EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WESTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS BY THE WEEKEND. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE EAST TO WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT IT
WILL BE RE-ORIENTING DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME. A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMA WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
WARMER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. ASCENT FROM
JET WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS WEEK...FAVORING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
TO THE NORTH A DRIER FLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK/S END. MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE RIDGE AND IT APPEARS CHANCED FOR A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR POPS.
HOWEVER THINK THERE IS A COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS AND DID PUSH HIGHS
UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
GOING MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY 18Z-19Z...
WITH LINGERING WINDSHEAR ENDING AS THIS OCCURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40KTS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DECREASING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE UNTIL AROUND
04Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL AGAIN INCREASE EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT
FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
MPH..THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 271632
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...INCREASING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH ISOLATED POPS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
ENERGETIC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY..DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THIS
WEEK. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARK OVER HUDSON BAY REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHIFT OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST STATES TO EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WESTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS BY THE WEEKEND. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE EAST TO WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT IT
WILL BE RE-ORIENTING DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME. A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMA WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
WARMER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. ASCENT FROM
JET WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS WEEK...FAVORING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
TO THE NORTH A DRIER FLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK/S END. MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE RIDGE AND IT APPEARS CHANCED FOR A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR POPS.
HOWEVER THINK THERE IS A COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS AND DID PUSH HIGHS
UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
GOING MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY 18Z-19Z...
WITH LINGERING WINDSHEAR ENDING AS THIS OCCURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40KTS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DECREASING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE UNTIL AROUND
04Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL AGAIN INCREASE EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT
FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
MPH..THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 271632
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...INCREASING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WITH ISOLATED POPS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.
BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
ENERGETIC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY..DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THIS
WEEK. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PARK OVER HUDSON BAY REGION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHIFT OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST STATES TO EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WESTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS BY THE WEEKEND. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE EAST TO WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT IT
WILL BE RE-ORIENTING DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME. A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMA WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
WARMER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. ASCENT FROM
JET WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS WEEK...FAVORING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
TO THE NORTH A DRIER FLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK/S END. MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE RIDGE AND IT APPEARS CHANCED FOR A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR BY NEXT
WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR POPS.
HOWEVER THINK THERE IS A COOL TEMPERATURE BIAS AND DID PUSH HIGHS
UPWARDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
GOING MID WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY 18Z-19Z...
WITH LINGERING WINDSHEAR ENDING AS THIS OCCURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40KTS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN DECREASING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE UNTIL AROUND
04Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL AGAIN INCREASE EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY. FUELS WILL BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST INPUT
FROM PARTNERS. FORECASTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW 15
PERCENT AND EXPECTED WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER 25 MPH...AND UP TO 40
MPH..THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT




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