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000
FXUS65 KGJT 240929
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
329 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SCREAMING MESSAGE TODAY IS THE CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM MAX
TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE H7 TEMPERATURES BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY ABOUT 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
VERSUS TODAY...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS
MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN MANY AREAS ARE LOWER THAN TODAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND THE NEXT
INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL SUNDAY. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE FORECAST MODELS CHANGING NEARLY EVERY MODEL
RUN. ALL THREE MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MAINLY
OVER NE UT AND NW CO DUE TO A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH COMBINED
WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT MOVING IN...THOUGH THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.

SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. AGAIN...EXPECT RELATIVELY LOW TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH.
PRESENTLY...LOOKS LIKE PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF HIGH DENSITY SNOW
TOTALS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
...WITH A MIGRATORY UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL JUST BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR
EVEN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JRP
AVIATION...JRP





000
FXUS65 KGJT 232246
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE EXIGUOUS SIDE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
IN PLACE TO END OUT THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BOOST LOW TEMPERATURES UP JUST A TAD AND LIMIT THE SPREAD OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS.
SATELLITE AND H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOW AN ENLARGED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND GULF OF ALASKA CURRENTLY. THIS IS
BEING UNDERCUT BY THE UPPER JET ATTM SO THERE IS NO THREAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
INSTEAD...AN UPSTREAM BRANCH OF THE JET DIGGING OUT OF THE
ALEUTIANS CARVE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH OF THE LEFT COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...BROAD RIDGING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAVE PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS
EAST AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SAT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...AS IT
BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SAT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MIXING INTO THE
VALLEYS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN THE ONSET AND DURATION OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER SO FAR THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED...WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MON AFTERNOON. ALSO BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP INTO THE NORTHERN AND HIGH CENTRAL
VALLEYS ALONG A LINE FROM CRAIG TO GUNNISON AND EASTWARD.

RIDGING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES: VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR...TO A
DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FOLLOW
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH PRODUCING MORE CLOUDS AND SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS.
MON WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY. HOWEVER THAT IS RELATIVE AS HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN TUE NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOWER
VALLEYS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A SEASON ENDING FREEZE. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CIGS AOA 20KFT AGL. MOISTURE ALONG THE EAGLE AND UPPER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED OUT TODAY THERE
SHOULD NOT BE A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG EXPERIENCED AT KEGE FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 232051
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE EXIGUOUS SIDE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
IN PLACE TO END OUT THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BOOST LOW TEMPERATURES UP JUST A TAD AND LIMIT THE SPREAD OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS.
SATELLITE AND H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOW AN ENLARGED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND GULF OF ALASKA CURRENTLY. THIS IS
BEING UNDERCUT BY THE UPPER JET ATTM SO THERE IS NO THREAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
INSTEAD...AN UPSTREAM BRANCH OF THE JET DIGGING OUT OF THE
ALEUTIANS CARVE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH OF THE LEFT COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...BROAD RIDGING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAVE PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS
EAST AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SAT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...AS IT
BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SAT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MIXING INTO THE
VALLEYS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN THE ONSET AND DURATION OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER SO FAR THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED...WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MON AFTERNOON. ALSO BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP INTO THE NORTHERN AND HIGH CENTRAL
VALLEYS ALONG A LINE FROM CRAIG TO GUNNISON AND EASTWARD.

RIDGING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES: VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR...TO A
DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FOLLOW
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH PRODUCING MORE CLOUDS AND SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS.
MON WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY. HOWEVER THAT IS RELATIVE AS HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN TUE NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOWER
VALLEYS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A SEASON ENDING FREEZE. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENTING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CIGS AOA 20KFT AGL. MOISTURE ALONG THE EAGLE AND
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS LOOKS TO HAVE MIXED OUT TODAY AND
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL NOT RETURN AND IMPACT
THE KEGE TERMINAL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG IS HANGING AROUND IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR EAGLE UP TO STATE BRIDGE. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE
SUN SHOULD BE SCATTERING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT BY NOON MDT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRIFTING BY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS. WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND WAA
KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A TAD WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF PRECIP TO THE PACNW. WE MAY SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY UP NORTH...BUY BY AND
LARGE...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT A WARM NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES REACH
THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH COMES ONSHORE
THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE.

A TALE OF TWO MODELS CONTINUES AS THE GFS AND EC BOTH PICKING UP
ON A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD SUNDAY...OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW QPF AMTS. THE
EC BRINGS PRECIP IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LARGER QPF
AMTS. BY NOW WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL GUNS. BLENDED SOLN STILL
LOOKING GOOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND DROPPING
OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...NWLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACNW. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP FOR US WHILE EC KEEPS US BONE DRY. SCHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS
WILL BE IMPROVING BY THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AS THE STRATUS BURNS
OFF. WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
NOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL
REFORM AGAIN AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 231636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG IS HANGING AROUND IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...IMPACTING AREAS NEAR EAGLE UP TO STATE BRIDGE. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FAR AWAY AND THE
SUN SHOULD BE SCATTERING THE LOWER CLOUDS OUT BY NOON MDT.
OTHERWISE ONLY SOME HIGH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRIFTING BY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS. WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND WAA
KICKING IN THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A TAD WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF PRECIP TO THE PACNW. WE MAY SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY UP NORTH...BUY BY AND
LARGE...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT A WARM NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES REACH
THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH COMES ONSHORE
THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE.

A TALE OF TWO MODELS CONTINUES AS THE GFS AND EC BOTH PICKING UP
ON A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD SUNDAY...OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW QPF AMTS. THE
EC BRINGS PRECIP IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LARGER QPF
AMTS. BY NOW WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL GUNS. BLENDED SOLN STILL
LOOKING GOOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND DROPPING
OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...NWLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACNW. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP FOR US WHILE EC KEEPS US BONE DRY. SCHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS
WILL BE IMPROVING BY THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE AS THE STRATUS BURNS
OFF. WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND
NOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL
REFORM AGAIN AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230908
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF PRECIP TO THE PACNW. WE MAY SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY UP NORTH...BUY BY AND
LARGE...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL END THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPECT A WARM NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES REACH
THEIR PEAK FOR THE WEEK UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH COMES ONSHORE
THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE.

A TALE OF TWO MODELS CONTINUES AS THE GFS AND EC BOTH PICKING UP
ON A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD SUNDAY...OR MONDAY...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW QPF AMTS. THE
EC BRINGS PRECIP IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LARGER QPF
AMTS. BY NOW WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL GUNS. BLENDED SOLN STILL
LOOKING GOOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND DROPPING
OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...NWLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACNW. BY WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP FOR US WHILE EC KEEPS US BONE DRY. SCHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL FINALLY DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1029 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

RADAR INDICATES ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH STILL
COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE FLURRIES HANGING ON THE HIGHEST
RIDGETOPS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GRADUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE REGION.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS BUT AT FIRST THEY WILL BE PRETTY THIN. DROPPED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN OVER THE NORTH...WHILE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO
A MINIMUM. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014*

WARM DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH FOR LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...BUT
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY. ECMWF STILL STRONGER
WITH A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH FOR A SHOWERY PERIOD...WHILE THE
WEAKER SOLUTIONS MIGHT JUST BE A QUICK BAND OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN
LESS IN THE SOUTH. STRONGER SOLUTIONS COULD BRING THE SHOWERS AND
COLD AIR TOGETHER ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
MARGINAL SO IMPACT WOULD BE LESSENED. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THIS PERIOD...BUT AGAIN
MAYBE LESS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS FINE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AFTER A WARM WEEKEND. THEN DRY AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT
NOT AS WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 230305
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
905 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

RADAR INDICATES ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END...ALTHOUGH STILL
COULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE FLURRIES HANGING ON THE HIGHEST
RIDGETOPS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GRADUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE REGION.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS BUT AT FIRST THEY WILL BE PRETTY THIN. DROPPED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN OVER THE NORTH...WHILE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO
A MINIMUM. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH FOR LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...BUT
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY. ECMWF STILL STRONGER
WITH A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH FOR A SHOWERY PERIOD...WHILE THE
WEAKER SOLUTIONS MIGHT JUST BE A QUICK BAND OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN
LESS IN THE SOUTH. STRONGER SOLUTIONS COULD BRING THE SHOWERS AND
COLD AIR TOGETHER ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
MARGINAL SO IMPACT WOULD BE LESSENED. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THIS PERIOD...BUT AGAIN
MAYBE LESS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS FINE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AFTER A WARM WEEKEND. THEN DRY AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT
NOT AS WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A SUFFICIENTLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND CLEARING SKIES. NORMAL BUT LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH/GIMMESTAD/KOOPMEINERS





000
FXUS65 KGJT 222053
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
253 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS BUT AT FIRST THEY WILL BE PRETTY THIN. DROPPED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN OVER THE NORTH...WHILE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO
A MINIMUM. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
CLEARING FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH FOR LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...BUT
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY. ECMWF STILL STRONGER
WITH A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH FOR A SHOWERY PERIOD...WHILE THE
WEAKER SOLUTIONS MIGHT JUST BE A QUICK BAND OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN
LESS IN THE SOUTH. STRONGER SOLUTIONS COULD BRING THE SHOWERS AND
COLD AIR TOGETHER ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
MARGINAL SO IMPACT WOULD BE LESSENED. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN THIS PERIOD...BUT AGAIN
MAYBE LESS IN SOUTHERN COLORADO. FOR NOW THE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS FINE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AFTER A WARM WEEKEND. THEN DRY AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT
NOT AS WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z...THEN ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...CMG/RTG/RJK





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221623
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1023 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. UPPER TROUGH IS EAST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND FINISH UP
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KTEX STILL HAS SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND WHICH COULD KEEP OCCASIONAL HIGH MVFR CEILINGS
THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THIS SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP LATER
IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS
POP UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DID RECEIVE SOME
SNOWFALL WITH CDOT REPORTING A LITTLE OVER AN INCH FOR THE VAIL
PASS AND SNOTELS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MODELS PICK UP ON AN UPTICK IN
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS IN LARGE
PART TO COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CAUSING
INSTABILITY. AREAS LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP INCLUDE THE SAN
JUANS...CENTRAL MTNS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GRAND MESA. PRECIP AMTS LOOK TO BE AROUND .1 INCHES SO NOTHING TOO
EXCEPTIONAL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO SETUP BEFORE SUNSET. SOME
CLOUDS AND GRADIENT WINDS OF WEST 10-20 MPH AT MTN TOP LEVELS
PREVENTS LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. ONLY THE
HIGHER VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE NEXT ALASKAN LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS BRINGS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...MILD PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GET FLATTENED SATURDAY AS A DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE OVER THE PACNW. MODEL AGREEMENT STILL NOT GOOD FOR NEXT
SYSTEM. GFS SHOWS A RATHER SHALLOW TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION
BRINGING PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 STARTING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHILE EC BRINGS IN DEEPER TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING
NOON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HARD TO SAY
WHICH MODEL NAILING IT SO BLENDED SOLN OF SOME PRECIP SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. EXPECT WARM
TEMPS TO DROP NEAR SEASONAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
TROUGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...MTN TAF SITES MAY SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR UNDER AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL FIRE FROM ABOUT 18Z
THROUGH 00Z. KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS PRECIP SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
ON TAP AFTER 00Z FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS65 KGJT 221623
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1023 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. UPPER TROUGH IS EAST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND FINISH UP
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KTEX STILL HAS SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND WHICH COULD KEEP OCCASIONAL HIGH MVFR CEILINGS
THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THIS SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP LATER
IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS
POP UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DID RECEIVE SOME
SNOWFALL WITH CDOT REPORTING A LITTLE OVER AN INCH FOR THE VAIL
PASS AND SNOTELS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MODELS PICK UP ON AN UPTICK IN
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS IN LARGE
PART TO COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CAUSING
INSTABILITY. AREAS LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP INCLUDE THE SAN
JUANS...CENTRAL MTNS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GRAND MESA. PRECIP AMTS LOOK TO BE AROUND .1 INCHES SO NOTHING TOO
EXCEPTIONAL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO SETUP BEFORE SUNSET. SOME
CLOUDS AND GRADIENT WINDS OF WEST 10-20 MPH AT MTN TOP LEVELS
PREVENTS LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. ONLY THE
HIGHER VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE NEXT ALASKAN LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS BRINGS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...MILD PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GET FLATTENED SATURDAY AS A DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE OVER THE PACNW. MODEL AGREEMENT STILL NOT GOOD FOR NEXT
SYSTEM. GFS SHOWS A RATHER SHALLOW TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION
BRINGING PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 STARTING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHILE EC BRINGS IN DEEPER TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING
NOON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HARD TO SAY
WHICH MODEL NAILING IT SO BLENDED SOLN OF SOME PRECIP SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. EXPECT WARM
TEMPS TO DROP NEAR SEASONAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
TROUGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...MTN TAF SITES MAY SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR UNDER AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL FIRE FROM ABOUT 18Z
THROUGH 00Z. KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS PRECIP SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
ON TAP AFTER 00Z FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS65 KGJT 220913
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS
POP UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DID RECEIVE SOME
SNOWFALL WITH CDOT REPORTING A LITTLE OVER AN INCH FOR THE VAIL
PASS AND SNOTELS REPORTING AN INCH OR TWO. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WITH
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING. MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MODELS PICK UP ON AN UPTICK IN
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS IN LARGE
PART TO COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CAUSING
INSTABILITY. AREAS LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP INCLUDE THE SAN
JUANS...CENTRAL MTNS...ROAN/TAVAPUTS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GRAND MESA. PRECIP AMTS LOOK TO BE AROUND .1 INCHES SO NOTHING TOO
EXCEPTIONAL.

TONIGHT...MODERATE INVERSIONS BEGIN TO SETUP BEFORE SUNSET. SOME
CLOUDS AND GRADIENT WINDS OF WEST 10-20 MPH AT MTN TOP LEVELS
PREVENTS LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. ONLY THE
HIGHER VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE NEXT ALASKAN LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS BRINGS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...MILD PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GET FLATTENED SATURDAY AS A DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE OVER THE PACNW. MODEL AGREEMENT STILL NOT GOOD FOR NEXT
SYSTEM. GFS SHOWS A RATHER SHALLOW TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION
BRINGING PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 STARTING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHILE EC BRINGS IN DEEPER TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING
NOON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HARD TO SAY
WHICH MODEL NAILING IT SO BLENDED SOLN OF SOME PRECIP SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. EXPECT WARM
TEMPS TO DROP NEAR SEASONAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...MTN TAF SITES MAY SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR UNDER AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL FIRE FROM ABOUT 18Z
THROUGH 00Z. KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS PRECIP SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
ON TAP AFTER 00Z FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 220314
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
914 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
EAST CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MOAB TO
CRAIG. THE FRONT WILL DRAG A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT STALLING AS IT PUSHED
INTO THE SAN JUANS. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING TOTALLY. SOME SNOW EXPECTED
AROUND AND ABOVE THE 10K LEVEL...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS NOT LIKELY BASED ON SHORT DURATION...SO NO
HIGHLIGHTS. STRONGER STORMS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
STRONGER CELLS AND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET DIVERGENCE
CONTINUED TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
...THE MAIN TROUGH WAS DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WYOMING THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MODELS
INDICATING A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 10000 TO 10500 FEET. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE PEAKS.

LINGERING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THERE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH FEWER CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...THEN COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OVER THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US ON
THURSDAY AND KEEPS DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH COMES ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE GENERAL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
ON THIS PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TWO-PART SYSTEM...WITH THE FIRST A WEAKER DISTURBANCE
ON SUNDAY AND A SECOND PART ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. 700MB TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND -5C TO -7C OVER NORTHERN UT/CO AND AROUND ZERO TO -3C
OVER SOUTHERN UT/CO...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AM MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL REACH THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BUT
THE DETAILS MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT WX MODELS CHANGE THE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH 09Z WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
RIDING SWEEPING IN WITH THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 10K. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
NEAR THE SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
TERMINAL SITES. SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY ENDING AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212319
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
519 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET DIVERGENCE
CONTINUED TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
...THE MAIN TROUGH WAS DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WYOMING THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MODELS
INDICATING A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 10000 TO 10500 FEET. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE PEAKS.

LINGERING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THERE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH FEWER CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...THEN COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OVER THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US ON
THURSDAY AND KEEPS DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH COMES ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE GENERAL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
ON THIS PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TWO-PART SYSTEM...WITH THE FIRST A WEAKER DISTURBANCE
ON SUNDAY AND A SECOND PART ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. 700MB TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND -5C TO -7C OVER NORTHERN UT/CO AND AROUND ZERO TO -3C
OVER SOUTHERN UT/CO...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AM MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL REACH THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BUT
THE DETAILS MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT WX MODELS CHANGE THE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS NW COLORADO BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
EXPECT A LINE OF -TSRA PRODUCING BRIEF VRB15G30KT VIS LESS THAN
6SM CIG 030-050 AT KCAG KHDN KCAG KEEO WITH SOME POTENTIAL AT
KEGE AND KASE. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRPORTS UNTIL
06Z. THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXCEPT CONTINUED -SHRA AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KDRO. THESE
SHOWERS AND OBSCURATIONS END BY 22Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION....JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212319
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
519 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET DIVERGENCE
CONTINUED TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
...THE MAIN TROUGH WAS DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WYOMING THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MODELS
INDICATING A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 10000 TO 10500 FEET. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE PEAKS.

LINGERING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THERE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH FEWER CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...THEN COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OVER THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US ON
THURSDAY AND KEEPS DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH COMES ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE GENERAL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
ON THIS PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TWO-PART SYSTEM...WITH THE FIRST A WEAKER DISTURBANCE
ON SUNDAY AND A SECOND PART ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. 700MB TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND -5C TO -7C OVER NORTHERN UT/CO AND AROUND ZERO TO -3C
OVER SOUTHERN UT/CO...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AM MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL REACH THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BUT
THE DETAILS MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT WX MODELS CHANGE THE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS NW COLORADO BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
EXPECT A LINE OF -TSRA PRODUCING BRIEF VRB15G30KT VIS LESS THAN
6SM CIG 030-050 AT KCAG KHDN KCAG KEEO WITH SOME POTENTIAL AT
KEGE AND KASE. ISOLATED -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL AIRPORTS UNTIL
06Z. THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXCEPT CONTINUED -SHRA AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KDRO. THESE
SHOWERS AND OBSCURATIONS END BY 22Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION....JOE





000
FXUS65 KGJT 212118
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET DIVERGENCE
CONTINUED TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
...THE MAIN TROUGH WAS DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WYOMING THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MODELS
INDICATING A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 10000 TO 10500 FEET. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE PEAKS.

LINGERING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THERE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH FEWER CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...THEN COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OVER THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US ON
THURSDAY AND KEEPS DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH COMES ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE GENERAL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
ON THIS PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPENCIES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TWO-PART SYSTEM...WITH THE FIRST A WEAKER DISTURBANCE
ON SUNDAY AND A SECOND PART ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. 700MB TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND -5C TO -7C OVER NORTHERN UT/CO AND AROUND ZERO TO -3C
OVER SOUTHERN UT/CO...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AM MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL REACH THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BUT
THE DETAILS MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT WX MODELS CHANGE THE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EVEN SO...ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOME ISOLD MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY AREAS THAT SEE MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY EXCEPT MTNS THAT MAY
SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN BUT
AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROLONGED MVFR FOR ANY OF THEM. KTEX...
KASE...AND KEGE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR DUE TO THEIR
LOCATION. EXPECT PRECIP WILL REACH A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z TO 00Z.
AFTER 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FOR
MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211707
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA GETS A GRAZING BLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH IDAHO TODAY AND
MONTANA TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH DRAGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF
A STANDUP 50KT JET ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONTAL BAND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS- FLATTOPS- GORE MTN RANGES OVERNIGHT PROVIDING ENHANCED
FORCING THERE AND TO THE NORTH. NORTHERN SNOW LEVELS START OUT
AROUND 11KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP TO AROUND 9KFT TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BELOW 10KFT
OVERNIGHT WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED DOWN TO 9KFT.

I-70 SOUTHWARD...MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING REACHING PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. OROGRAPHICS
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LATE-DAY STORMS. THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AMOUNTS AND INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
BUT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED W-E
NORTH OF I-70 PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AS FAR
WEST AS THE UTAH TAVAPUTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MTNS WITH DRIER
AIR OVER THE WEST. EVEN THE EASTERN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH MTN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5
DEGREES COOLER NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
VALLEYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIP WILL BE OVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BRINGING A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BENIGN WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HIGHLIGHT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BEING ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE JET
STREAM SETTING UP OFF THE PACIFIC BEFORE SLAMMING INTO THE WEST
COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL FORCE SUPPORT AND THUS
PRECIP...TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE TO FORECAST IS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GFS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING SOME LGT PRECIP TO NRN REACHES OF CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BIG CHANGE SHOWS UP IN EC WHICH HAS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SAME TIMEFRAME MIND YOU...BRINGING MORE
PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLN AS THEY ARE SO DIFFERENT ATTM. STAY TUNED AS MODELS
GET THEIR ACTS TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EVEN SO...ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOME ISOLD MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY AREAS THAT SEE MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY EXCEPT MTNS THAT MAY
SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN BUT
AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROLONGED MVFR FOR ANY OF THEM. KTEX...
KASE...AND KEGE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR DUE TO THEIR
LOCATION. EXPECT PRECIP WILL REACH A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z TO 00Z.
AFTER 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FOR
MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT





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