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000
FXUS65 KGJT 212118
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH JET DIVERGENCE
CONTINUED TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE
...THE MAIN TROUGH WAS DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WYOMING THIS EVENING. PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...SNOW WILL FALL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MODELS
INDICATING A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 10000 TO 10500 FEET. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE PEAKS.

LINGERING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THERE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH FEWER CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE LOWS. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...THEN COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OVER THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US ON
THURSDAY AND KEEPS DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH COMES ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO
INCREASE THE GENERAL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
ON THIS PACIFIC NW TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPENCIES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TWO-PART SYSTEM...WITH THE FIRST A WEAKER DISTURBANCE
ON SUNDAY AND A SECOND PART ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. 700MB TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND -5C TO -7C OVER NORTHERN UT/CO AND AROUND ZERO TO -3C
OVER SOUTHERN UT/CO...WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AM MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL REACH THE AREA LATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BUT
THE DETAILS MAY CHANGE AS SUBSEQUENT WX MODELS CHANGE THE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EVEN SO...ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOME ISOLD MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY AREAS THAT SEE MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY EXCEPT MTNS THAT MAY
SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN BUT
AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROLONGED MVFR FOR ANY OF THEM. KTEX...
KASE...AND KEGE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR DUE TO THEIR
LOCATION. EXPECT PRECIP WILL REACH A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z TO 00Z.
AFTER 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FOR
MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 211707
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA GETS A GRAZING BLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH IDAHO TODAY AND
MONTANA TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH DRAGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF
A STANDUP 50KT JET ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONTAL BAND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS- FLATTOPS- GORE MTN RANGES OVERNIGHT PROVIDING ENHANCED
FORCING THERE AND TO THE NORTH. NORTHERN SNOW LEVELS START OUT
AROUND 11KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP TO AROUND 9KFT TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BELOW 10KFT
OVERNIGHT WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED DOWN TO 9KFT.

I-70 SOUTHWARD...MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING REACHING PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. OROGRAPHICS
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LATE-DAY STORMS. THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AMOUNTS AND INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
BUT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED W-E
NORTH OF I-70 PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AS FAR
WEST AS THE UTAH TAVAPUTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MTNS WITH DRIER
AIR OVER THE WEST. EVEN THE EASTERN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH MTN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5
DEGREES COOLER NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
VALLEYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIP WILL BE OVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BRINGING A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BENIGN WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HIGHLIGHT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BEING ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE JET
STREAM SETTING UP OFF THE PACIFIC BEFORE SLAMMING INTO THE WEST
COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL FORCE SUPPORT AND THUS
PRECIP...TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE TO FORECAST IS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GFS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING SOME LGT PRECIP TO NRN REACHES OF CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BIG CHANGE SHOWS UP IN EC WHICH HAS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SAME TIMEFRAME MIND YOU...BRINGING MORE
PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLN AS THEY ARE SO DIFFERENT ATTM. STAY TUNED AS MODELS
GET THEIR ACTS TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EVEN SO...ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOME ISOLD MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY AREAS THAT SEE MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY EXCEPT MTNS THAT MAY
SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN BUT
AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROLONGED MVFR FOR ANY OF THEM. KTEX...
KASE...AND KEGE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR DUE TO THEIR
LOCATION. EXPECT PRECIP WILL REACH A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z TO 00Z.
AFTER 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FOR
MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210903
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA GETS A GRAZING BLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH IDAHO TODAY AND
MONTANA TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH DRAGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF
A STANDUP 50KT JET ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONTAL BAND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS- FLATTOPS- GORE MTN RANGES OVERNIGHT PROVIDING ENHANCED
FORCING THERE AND TO THE NORTH. NORTHERN SNOW LEVELS START OUT
AROUND 11KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP TO AROUND 9KFT TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BELOW 10KFT
OVERNIGHT WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED DOWN TO 9KFT.

I-70 SOUTHWARD...MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING REACHING PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. OROGRAPHICS
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LATE-DAY STORMS. THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AMOUNTS AND INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
BUT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED W-E
NORTH OF I-70 PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AS FAR
WEST AS THE UTAH TAVAPUTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MTNS WITH DRIER
AIR OVER THE WEST. EVEN THE EASTERN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH MTN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5
DEGREES COOLER NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
VALLEYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIP WILL BE OVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BRINGING A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BENIGN WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HIGHLIGHT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BEING ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE JET
STREAM SETTING UP OFF THE PACIFIC BEFORE SLAMMING INTO THE WEST
COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL FORCE SUPPORT AND THUS
PRECIP...TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE TO FORECAST IS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GFS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING SOME LGT PRECIP TO NRN REACHES OF CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BIG CHANGE SHOWS UP IN EC WHICH HAS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SAME TIMEFRAME MIND YOU...BRINGING MORE
PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLN AS THEY ARE SO DIFFERENT ATTM. STAY TUNED AS MODELS
GET THEIR ACTS TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EVEN SO...ANTICIPATE
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOME ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY AREAS THAT SEE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO
STAY THAT WAY EXCEPT MTNS THAT MAY SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN BUT AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
PROLONGED MVFR FOR ANY OF THEM. KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR DUE TO THEIR LOCATION. CONDITIONS WILL START
DETERIORATING BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WITH PRECIP REACHING A MAXIMUM
BETWEEN 21Z TO 00Z. AFTER 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 210903
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA GETS A GRAZING BLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH IDAHO TODAY AND
MONTANA TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH DRAGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF
A STANDUP 50KT JET ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONTAL BAND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE ROAN-
TAVAPUTS- FLATTOPS- GORE MTN RANGES OVERNIGHT PROVIDING ENHANCED
FORCING THERE AND TO THE NORTH. NORTHERN SNOW LEVELS START OUT
AROUND 11KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP TO AROUND 9KFT TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BELOW 10KFT
OVERNIGHT WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED DOWN TO 9KFT.

I-70 SOUTHWARD...MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING REACHING PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.8 INCHES. THIS IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. OROGRAPHICS
AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LATE-DAY STORMS. THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
LIMIT SHOWER AMOUNTS AND INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE MTNS
BUT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED W-E
NORTH OF I-70 PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AS FAR
WEST AS THE UTAH TAVAPUTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MTNS WITH DRIER
AIR OVER THE WEST. EVEN THE EASTERN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BEFORE SUNSET. HIGH MTN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL BRING COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5
DEGREES COOLER NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
VALLEYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIP WILL BE OVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BRINGING A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BENIGN WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HIGHLIGHT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BEING ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE JET
STREAM SETTING UP OFF THE PACIFIC BEFORE SLAMMING INTO THE WEST
COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL FORCE SUPPORT AND THUS
PRECIP...TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONE IMPORTANT CHANGE TO FORECAST IS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GFS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING SOME LGT PRECIP TO NRN REACHES OF CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BIG CHANGE SHOWS UP IN EC WHICH HAS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SAME TIMEFRAME MIND YOU...BRINGING MORE
PRONOUNCED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLN AS THEY ARE SO DIFFERENT ATTM. STAY TUNED AS MODELS
GET THEIR ACTS TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EVEN SO...ANTICIPATE
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOME ISOLD MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY AREAS THAT SEE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO
STAY THAT WAY EXCEPT MTNS THAT MAY SEE A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN BUT AGAIN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
PROLONGED MVFR FOR ANY OF THEM. KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR DUE TO THEIR LOCATION. CONDITIONS WILL START
DETERIORATING BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WITH PRECIP REACHING A MAXIMUM
BETWEEN 21Z TO 00Z. AFTER 06Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 210615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. UNSETTLED WX WILL START NEAR 12Z
AND DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FROPA AROUND 00Z.
OCNL MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD NOR AFFECT TAF SITES TOO GREATLY. ANTICIPATE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN QUICKLY
RETURN TO PREVIOUS CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
COMMON. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW THEN
QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER THAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 210615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1215 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. UNSETTLED WX WILL START NEAR 12Z
AND DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FROPA AROUND 00Z.
OCNL MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE TOO WIDESPREAD NOR AFFECT TAF SITES TOO GREATLY. ANTICIPATE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN QUICKLY
RETURN TO PREVIOUS CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
COMMON. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW THEN
QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER THAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN VISUAL. AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL BE
DROPPING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 202327
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
527 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN VISUAL. AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL BE
DROPPING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 202131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
331 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED SANDWICHED WITHIN AN AREA OF SPLIT
FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS FUELED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS. HOWEVER...A VORT CENTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT OVER EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND
WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MOST MOUNTAINS AND A STRONG CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 11000 FEET...SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT SO
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
LINGERING ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WRINGS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY MORNING SO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKELY
TO SLOW TRAFFIC A BIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST MODELS SHOW DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLIZES FROM WEST TO EAST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW STATES ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. LONG TERM MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD AIR WITH IT. SINCE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IT MAY CHANGE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT FOR
ITS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 201700
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLD ADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 04Z/TUES...THOUGH FLIGHT RULES SHOULD REMAIN
VISUAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 200843
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLDADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ATTM AS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO START FIRING AROUND 18Z OR SO
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
MTNS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALL
POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. VCTS LOOKS A SAFE BET
FOR KTEX WHILE LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ANY CELLS WILL AFFECT KASE
OR KEGE SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. REMAINING TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND VFR. FOR THAT MATTER...EXPECT VFR FOR
ENTIRE CWA WITH VERY MINIMAL OCCURRENCES OF MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTN.
MOST PRECIP WILL END BY 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200843
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...THE LOW PRESSURE...OR OPEN WAVE DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL BEING LOOKED AT...REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE END RESULT WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN FAVORING THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THIS
PRECIP WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARM THOUGH THIS CHANGES TOMORROW.

FOR THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
COLORADO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. BUT IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
WORKING INTO NEVADA...STRENGTHENING SE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STORMS AND SHOWERS
INCREASING IN SE UT AND SW CO BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.

TUESDAY THE NAM IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BUT ALL MODELS BEGIN TO
LIFT THE BEST FORCING TO THE NE ACROSS IDAHO. THIS WOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST AREA BUT FOR THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 0.9 INCHES
WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE OCTOBER. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH-
FACING SLOPES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITHIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS AT 5C OR WARMER. STILL
CONVECTION WILL DRIVE SNOW FLAKES LOWER TO AROUND 10KFT BUT WITH
LITTLE SURVIVABLE ACCUMULATION. BREEZY SE-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE TROUGH LIFTS NE THROUGH WYOMING-MONTANA WITH THE ENTRANCE TAIL
OF THE 50KT JET DRAGGING ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS BRINGS
COLDADVECTION AND A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SNOW
LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500-9500FT OVERNIGHT BUT RISES AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO NE UTAH ON WEDNESDAY THAT
ENDS SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST SHOWERS
END BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER COLORADO MTNS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BENIGN WEATHER SETS UP THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE PAC
NW DURING THE PERIOD AND WILL SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE PLAINS
WHILE WE STAY UNDER SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. A DEEP
TROUGH COMES ASHORE SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
EC AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH THIS EVENT SO FAR
OUT...DO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ATTM AS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO START FIRING AROUND 18Z OR SO
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL
MTNS. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALL
POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. VCTS LOOKS A SAFE BET
FOR KTEX WHILE LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ANY CELLS WILL AFFECT KASE
OR KEGE SO WILL KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. REMAINING TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND VFR. FOR THAT MATTER...EXPECT VFR FOR
ENTIRE CWA WITH VERY MINIMAL OCCURRENCES OF MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTN.
MOST PRECIP WILL END BY 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 200517
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1117 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT
OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT VERY SHORTLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FAR AS TOMORROW IS CONCERNED...EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LIKE TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TAF SITES WHICH MAY BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE KTEX...KASE...AND KDRO FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HAVE
LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH IS IN
AN IDEAL LOCATION TO SEE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 200517
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1117 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT
OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT VERY SHORTLY BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. AS FAR AS TOMORROW IS CONCERNED...EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LIKE TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TAF SITES WHICH MAY BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE KTEX...KASE...AND KDRO FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. HAVE
LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR KTEX WHICH IS IN
AN IDEAL LOCATION TO SEE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200316
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN






000
FXUS65 KGJT 200316 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATE DAY CONVECTION FINALLY DYING OFF...BUT STILL ENOUGH WEAK
MUCAPE ALONG WITH AXIS OF 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH PRECIP WATER OVER THE
SAN JUAN MTNS TO KEEP WEAK CONVECTION ALIVE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD SHUT OFF AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO FOLLOW CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 200011 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
611 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 200011 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
611 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. KDRO AND KASE WILL BE THE SITES WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TUE. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFT 18Z MON WITH KTEX...KASE...AND KEGE THE
MOST VULNERABLE. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NNE
AROUND 15KT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION FOR MISSING WORD

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT






000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION FOR MISSING WORD

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 192111 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM SECTION FOR MISSING WORD

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SURPRISES TODAY WITH THE WEATHER...AS EXPECTED THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN THE BULLSEYE OF ACTIVITY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 6PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND WEAK CYCLONIC FORCING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
INDICES SHOW A LESSER CHANCE FOR TSTORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT
MAY MAKE IT TO OTHER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MODELS ARE ON TRACK IN BRINGING THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY TUE...THEN EJECTING IT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO WY BY TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE NORTHWEST AND WEST EDGES BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE BEST ENERGY/COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...
SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ON THE
PLUS SIDE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PEAKING AT AROUND 6 G/KG
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE EVENING. ALSO THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OPTIMAL TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TAIL/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TUE MIDDAY-
AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE BIT OF A BOOST.

THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE TUE MORNING...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BUT EXPECT THAT TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...AND OTHER
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AT THAT TIME. BY TUE EVENING ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST AS A DRIER WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE COLORADO DIVIDE
WILL BECOME FAVORED...WITH THE NORTHERN DIVIDE HOLDING ONTO
SHOWERS THE LONGEST. THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER COLORADO MTN RANGES.

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON WED. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE THE COOLEST LOWS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE NOT
HAD A SEASON ENDING FREEZE WILL REMAIN SAFE AND STAY ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO OUR DOORSTEP ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF...IS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 191645 AAB
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 191645
AFDGJT
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT






000
FXUS65 KGJT 191645 AAB
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED LATE THIS MORNING AT ASE
AND EGE AS AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES EAST. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 191414 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 191414 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
814 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM POP/WX/QPF FIELDS FOR
SHOWERS OVER DOTSERO...WOLCOTT...AND GILMAN AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE ARE WARMING...AN INDICATION THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTERNOON
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY TSTORM
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 190854
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 190854
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT SHOWING
UP ON RADAR NEAR THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS. THE GREATER
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS PICKING UP ON THIS REMARKABLY WELL THOUGH
IT DOES SHOW THE ENHANCEMENT ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED...CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CALIF
AND WRN AZ IS PROGGED TO FILL TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRING SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-70. WHILE NO STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY...CHANCES
LOOK BETTER TODAY AS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND LESS
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MORE DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE MOST CONVECTION WILL
DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER
THAT. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN YESTERDAY AS WARM
TEMPS CONTINUE.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...IN SPITE OF THE BLOCKING NATURE OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...BOTH THE NW MEXICAN LOW AND THE CO HIGH REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY INCREASES MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 700
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UNIFORMALY NEAR 6 G/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 9KFT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK/RAGGEDS MTN
RANGES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR 9K
FEET WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN WITH BIGGEST CHANGES FELT UP NORTH. TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE. THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL GET FORCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AS
AN ENERGETIC JET STREAM TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE NWRN STATES SEE A PROLONGED WED PERIOD. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES START WARMING UP
UNDER SWLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MIDLEVEL CIGS CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED THIS MORNING WITH MOST CIGS
AROUND 10K THOUGH A FEW SITES REPORTING CIGS NEAR 5K FEET AT
TIMES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
GENERALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
CONVECTION WILL BEING AROUND 18Z REACHING A MAXIMUM BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. EVEN SO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE
MOST PART. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUANS...EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...TGR/JOE
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 190357
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER STARTING THE BREAKUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING PER SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. WILL CLEAN UP
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY COVER...OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NERN NM HEADED INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING. MID-LEVEL CLOUD ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SERN UT.
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER KGJX
RADAR RETURNS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT NO LIGHTNING
DETECTED IN OUR AREA AS OF 20Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL FOCUS
SOME PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE SWRN CO MTNS.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
JET SUPPORT IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SWRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN MTNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE 11K FEET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A PSEUDO REX BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER THE
WESTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
THE WEST COAST AND PROGRESSES THE PATTERN EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE EAST...OPENING
A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK 45KT
JET NOSES INTO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO ON TUESDAY...BUT
WEDNESDAY IS DYNAMICALLY MORE INTERESTING WITH A 70 KT JET
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...SO SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...ABOUT 10500+
FEET

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKUP
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE
BRIEFLY OBSCURED SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 190357
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER STARTING THE BREAKUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING PER SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. WILL CLEAN UP
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY COVER...OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NERN NM HEADED INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING. MID-LEVEL CLOUD ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SERN UT.
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER KGJX
RADAR RETURNS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT NO LIGHTNING
DETECTED IN OUR AREA AS OF 20Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL FOCUS
SOME PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE SWRN CO MTNS.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
JET SUPPORT IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SWRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN MTNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE 11K FEET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A PSEUDO REX BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER THE
WESTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
THE WEST COAST AND PROGRESSES THE PATTERN EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE EAST...OPENING
A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK 45KT
JET NOSES INTO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO ON TUESDAY...BUT
WEDNESDAY IS DYNAMICALLY MORE INTERESTING WITH A 70 KT JET
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...SO SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...ABOUT 10500+
FEET

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKUP
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE
BRIEFLY OBSCURED SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 190357
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER STARTING THE BREAKUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING PER SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. WILL CLEAN UP
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY COVER...OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NERN NM HEADED INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING. MID-LEVEL CLOUD ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SERN UT.
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER KGJX
RADAR RETURNS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT NO LIGHTNING
DETECTED IN OUR AREA AS OF 20Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL FOCUS
SOME PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE SWRN CO MTNS.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
JET SUPPORT IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SWRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN MTNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE 11K FEET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A PSEUDO REX BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER THE
WESTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
THE WEST COAST AND PROGRESSES THE PATTERN EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE EAST...OPENING
A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK 45KT
JET NOSES INTO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO ON TUESDAY...BUT
WEDNESDAY IS DYNAMICALLY MORE INTERESTING WITH A 70 KT JET
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...SO SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...ABOUT 10500+
FEET

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKUP
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE
BRIEFLY OBSCURED SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 190357
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
957 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER STARTING THE BREAKUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING PER SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. WILL CLEAN UP
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY COVER...OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NERN NM HEADED INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING. MID-LEVEL CLOUD ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SERN UT.
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER KGJX
RADAR RETURNS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT NO LIGHTNING
DETECTED IN OUR AREA AS OF 20Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL FOCUS
SOME PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE SWRN CO MTNS.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
JET SUPPORT IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SWRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN MTNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE 11K FEET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A PSEUDO REX BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER THE
WESTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
THE WEST COAST AND PROGRESSES THE PATTERN EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE EAST...OPENING
A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK 45KT
JET NOSES INTO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO ON TUESDAY...BUT
WEDNESDAY IS DYNAMICALLY MORE INTERESTING WITH A 70 KT JET
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...SO SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...ABOUT 10500+
FEET

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKUP
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...WITH MOST
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE
BRIEFLY OBSCURED SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR SHOWERS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 182315
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
515 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NERN NM HEADED INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING. MID-LEVEL CLOUD ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SERN UT.
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER KGJX
RADAR RETURNS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT NO LIGHTNING
DETECTED IN OUR AREA AS OF 20Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL FOCUS
SOME PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE SWRN CO MTNS.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
JET SUPPORT IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SWRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN MTNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE 11K FEET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A PSEUDO REX BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER THE
WESTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
THE WEST COAST AND PROGRESSES THE PATTERN EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE EAST...OPENING
A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK 45KT
JET NOSES INTO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO ON TUESDAY...BUT
WEDNESDAY IS DYNAMICALLY MORE INTERESTING WITH A 70 KT JET
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...SO SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...ABOUT 10500+
FEET

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SOME DECREASE IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER
06Z...BUT ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT TERMINAL SITES...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 182315
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
515 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER NERN NM HEADED INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES WHILE A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN WAS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING. MID-LEVEL CLOUD ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SERN UT.
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER KGJX
RADAR RETURNS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT NO LIGHTNING
DETECTED IN OUR AREA AS OF 20Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL FOCUS
SOME PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE SWRN CO MTNS.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
JET SUPPORT IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
SOUTHERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SWRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN MTNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR ABOVE 11K FEET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A PSEUDO REX BLOCK PATTERN SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER THE
WESTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
THE WEST COAST AND PROGRESSES THE PATTERN EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE EAST...OPENING
A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK 45KT
JET NOSES INTO NORTHEAST UT AND NORTHWEST CO ON TUESDAY...BUT
WEDNESDAY IS DYNAMICALLY MORE INTERESTING WITH A 70 KT JET
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH. THIS VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DURING THE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...SO SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...ABOUT 10500+
FEET

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SOME DECREASE IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER
06Z...BUT ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT TERMINAL SITES...ALTHOUGH
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC




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