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000
FXUS65 KGJT 311705
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1105 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER CO WAS SHIFTING EAST WITH SW FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
AREA. BANDS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
UT. MOISTURE DEPTH DOESN`T APPEAR GREAT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LESS THAN 100 PCT OF NORMAL PER SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND SOME SUNSHINE MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HOLD OFF ON ANY
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST OF
ANOTHER MILD AND GENERALLY DRY DAY APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY/TEMP/POP GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS A SPLITTING TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF COLORADO WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA...MORE
DISCERNIBLE AT THE 300 MB LEVEL...REACHES WRN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RADAR OBSERVATION SHOW WEAK DBZ RETURNS INDICATING THERE IS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SW
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETIMES THIS IS OVERDONE AFTER A
PROLONG DRY PERIOD...BUT REASONABLE THAT SOME VIRGA SHAFTS WILL
EXIST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...PERHAPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMING (EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM THE WEST.)

STILL A DIFFICULT FORECAST COMING UP THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WHEN
THIS PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL BE TAKING A SHORT HIATUS. 00Z H5
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THAT THE
MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL AID IN
FORMING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...WHERE
IT PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY/S FORECAST LOOKS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO AND GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER SOME
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT FUZZY. 305K THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOISTURE HEADING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SONORAN REGION
TODAY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONVERGING
THERE THIS MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE AND OROGRAPHICS LOOKS TO SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OVERALL
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING AND FOCUSED WELL TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS APPEAR BEST ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET THAT FORMS
OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. POPS LOOK GOOD HERE. CROSS
SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADD SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO THINK IT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL NOT BE SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT AIDED BY
STRONG MIXING AND REALIZED WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
STILL A 10 DEGREE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE AND GUT FEELING IS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE...BUT STAYED WITH GOING FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY LATE SATURDAY THE SPLIT IN THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER JET MAX BEGINS TO
REFORM ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IT WILL REINFORCE WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY. STILL NOT VERY
ACTIVE OUR CWA WITH LIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
FRONT PUSHING THOUGH AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND BRINGS SOME CAA.
OROGRAPHICS SEEM THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAIN
DRY. THE BIGGER PUSH BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE JET AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT SHIFTS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  STRONG PV FROM THE JET
MOVING IN ALOFT REDUCES STATIC INSTABILITY...MOISTURE UNDER THIS
LAYER PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POPS LOOK GOOD THERE FOR NOW. THE MAIN FRONT
SHOULD BE HUNG UP TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP IN THAT DIRECTION. IN THE MIDDLE ISOLATED
TO LOW CHANCE POPS SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL PICTURE CLEARS JUST A BIT
ON TIMING. TEMPERATURES DROP SOME 10 DEGREES WITH PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...COLD TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 5500 TO 6000
FEET). SHADED POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE TO CORRECT FOR MODEL SPREAD
INHERENT IN THE INITIAL CONSENSUS POP FIELD. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS. WITH THE PACIFIC JET
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE
AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND A FEW MORE DAYS OF MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVER SE UT AND SW CO THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. THIS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA OVERNIGHT IN SE UT AND SW CO SOUTH OF KCNY-KGUC LINE AND GENERALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPACT ON KTEX AND KDRO
AT THE MOMENT THOUGH MTN TOPS SURROUNDING KTEX MAY BE BRIEFLY
OBSCURED AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...PF/15
LONG TERM...15/PF
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 311130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF COLORADO WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA...MORE
DISCERNIBLE AT THE 300 MB LEVEL...REACHES WRN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RADAR OBSERVATION SHOW WEAK DBZ RETURNS INDICATING THERE IS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SW
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETIMES THIS IS OVERDONE AFTER A
PROLONG DRY PERIOD...BUT REASONABLE THAT SOME VIRGA SHAFTS WILL
EXIST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...PERHAPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMING (EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM THE WEST.)

STILL A DIFFICULT FORECAST COMING UP THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WHEN
THIS PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL BE TAKING A SHORT HIATUS. 00Z H5
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THAT THE
MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL AID IN
FORMING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...WHERE
IT PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY/S FORECAST LOOKS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO AND GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER SOME
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT FUZZY. 305K THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOISTURE HEADING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SONORAN REGION
TODAY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONVERGING
THERE THIS MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE AND OROGRAPHICS LOOKS TO SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OVERALL
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING AND FOCUSED WELL TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS APPEAR BEST ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET THAT FORMS
OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. POPS LOOK GOOD HERE. CROSS
SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADD SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO THINK IT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL NOT BE SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT AIDED BY
STRONG MIXING AND REALIZED WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
STILL A 10 DEGREE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE AND GUT FEELING IS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE...BUT STAYED WITH GOING FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY LATE SATURDAY THE SPLIT IN THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER JET MAX BEGINS TO
REFORM ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IT WILL REINFORCE WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY. STILL NOT VERY
ACTIVE OUR CWA WITH LIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
FRONT PUSHING THOUGH AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND BRINGS SOME CAA.
OROGRAPHICS SEEM THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAIN
DRY. THE BIGGER PUSH BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE JET AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT SHIFTS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  STRONG PV FROM THE JET
MOVING IN ALOFT REDUCES STATIC INSTABILITY...MOISTURE UNDER THIS
LAYER PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POPS LOOK GOOD THERE FOR NOW. THE MAIN FRONT
SHOULD BE HUNG UP TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP IN THAT DIRECTION. IN THE MIDDLE ISOLATED
TO LOW CHANCE POPS SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL PICTURE CLEARS JUST A BIT
ON TIMING. TEMPERATURES DROP SOME 10 DEGREES WITH PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...COLD TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 5500 TO 6000
FEET). SHADED POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE TO CORRECT FOR MODEL SPREAD
INHERENT IN THE INITIAL CONSENSUS POP FIELD. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS. WITH THE PACIFIC JET
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE
AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND A FEW MORE DAYS OF MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

FOR SW COLORADO...ISOLATED VIRGA SHAFTS OR -SHRA WILL FORM AFTER
20Z THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED -SHRA AFTER 03Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/15
LONG TERM...15/PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 311013
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF COLORADO WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEVADA...MORE
DISCERNIBLE AT THE 300 MB LEVEL...REACHES WRN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RADAR OBSERVATION SHOW WEAK DBZ RETURNS INDICATING THERE IS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER SW
COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETIMES THIS IS OVERDONE AFTER A
PROLONG DRY PERIOD...BUT REASONABLE THAT SOME VIRGA SHAFTS WILL
EXIST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND. ANOTHER MILD DAY
EXPECTED...PERHAPS 1-3 DEGREES WARMING (EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM THE WEST.)

STILL A DIFFICULT FORECAST COMING UP THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WHEN
THIS PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL BE TAKING A SHORT HIATUS. 00Z H5
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THAT THE
MODELS HAD BEEN PREDICTING. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL AID IN
FORMING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...WHERE
IT PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY/S FORECAST LOOKS
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO AND GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER SOME
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT FUZZY. 305K THETA SURFACES CONTINUE TO
SHOW MOISTURE HEADING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SONORAN REGION
TODAY...WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC CONVERGING
THERE THIS MORNING. WEAK UPGLIDE AND OROGRAPHICS LOOKS TO SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT OVERALL
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING AND FOCUSED WELL TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS APPEAR BEST ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET THAT FORMS
OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. POPS LOOK GOOD HERE. CROSS
SECTIONS THEN SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADD SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO HELP
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALSO THINK IT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AS THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL NOT BE SATURATED.
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...BUT AIDED BY
STRONG MIXING AND REALIZED WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
STILL A 10 DEGREE SPLIT IN GUIDANCE AND GUT FEELING IS TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE...BUT STAYED WITH GOING FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY LATE SATURDAY THE SPLIT IN THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER JET MAX BEGINS TO
REFORM ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND IT WILL REINFORCE WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT WITH UPSTREAM ENERGY. STILL NOT VERY
ACTIVE OUR CWA WITH LIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
FRONT PUSHING THOUGH AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND BRINGS SOME CAA.
OROGRAPHICS SEEM THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND SHOULD KEEP SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE HIGH COUNTRY BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAIN
DRY. THE BIGGER PUSH BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE JET AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT SHIFTS OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  STRONG PV FROM THE JET
MOVING IN ALOFT REDUCES STATIC INSTABILITY...MOISTURE UNDER THIS
LAYER PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POPS LOOK GOOD THERE FOR NOW. THE MAIN FRONT
SHOULD BE HUNG UP TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE IN THE DAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP IN THAT DIRECTION. IN THE MIDDLE ISOLATED
TO LOW CHANCE POPS SUFFICE FOR NOW UNTIL PICTURE CLEARS JUST A BIT
ON TIMING. TEMPERATURES DROP SOME 10 DEGREES WITH PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...COLD TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 5500 TO 6000
FEET). SHADED POPS TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE TO CORRECT FOR MODEL SPREAD
INHERENT IN THE INITIAL CONSENSUS POP FIELD. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE COLD TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS. WITH THE PACIFIC JET
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...A WEST TO EAST RIDGE
AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRY
WEATHER WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND A FEW MORE DAYS OF MILD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/15
LONG TERM...15/PF
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310419
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD MIN TEMPS UP A BIT. GENERAL FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310419
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND WILL BE ROLLING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD MIN TEMPS UP A BIT. GENERAL FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
MOUNTAIN TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302317
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
517 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302049
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE STRONG GREAT
BASIN RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN CO TONIGHT. THE RIDGELINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST AND CROSS FROM UT TO CO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
EASTERN AZ FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEING DRAWN NORTH BY A WEAK TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY...THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
NIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SAN JUANS...REACHING THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRECIPITATION RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANTICIPATE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

SATURDAY WILL BE MILD...HOWEVER...IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY UNDER INCREASING
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT BASIN AND AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT ACROSS IDAHO WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS UT SATURDAY...AND 12Z MODELS SHOWED THIS FRONT
REACHING ERN UT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WRN CO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WAS FASTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT MODELS SHOWED A FEW
DAYS AGO. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP NE UT/NW CO
SUNDAY AND GIVE THE FRONT ANOTHER EASTWARD PUSH...BUT TIMING LIKELY
TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AS MODELS GRAPPLE WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WAVES. DID BOOST POPS A NOTCH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BUT DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THE CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED AS LOW AS
CRAIG/MEEKER/VERNAL/DURANGO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE 500 MB TROUGH NOT PASSING UNTIL
MONDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MAINLY
FOR THE CO MTNS. TREND IS THEN FOR DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301633
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

NO SURPRISES IN THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING IT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A RATHER
STRONG...ELONGATED TROUGH ARRIVING TO THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE ANTI CYCLONIC CENTER OF THE RIDGE WAS HAND ANALYZED AT 00Z
NEAR THE AZ/NM AND MEXICO BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
TRANSLATES EAST THIS CIRCULATION SHIFTS TO THE LOWER RIO GRAND
VALLEY. 305K THETA SURFACE SHOW MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THIS REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SETTLING INTO THIS REGION. THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL ONLY BE NOTICEABLE BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL JET. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND. PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 0.65 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH
FOR LATE OCTOBER IS AT LEAST 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS INITIALLY LACKING WITH QG FORCING FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS AND MOIST UPGLIDE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...WITH THE TERRAIN STILL FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT ON SATURDAY AS THE INSTABILITY AIDS IN
MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS MIXING LOOKS TO ADD
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE PICTURE AND MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A
DOWNTREND IN QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS WAVERING WITH PWAT AS HIGH AS IT
IS. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THESE PERIODS AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PLOW
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. SNOW LEVELS ARE INDICATED TO FALL TO
NEAR 7500 WITH FROPA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE A
SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING
ARRIVES TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. EXPECT MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF FROPA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301633
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

NO SURPRISES IN THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING IT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A RATHER
STRONG...ELONGATED TROUGH ARRIVING TO THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE ANTI CYCLONIC CENTER OF THE RIDGE WAS HAND ANALYZED AT 00Z
NEAR THE AZ/NM AND MEXICO BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
TRANSLATES EAST THIS CIRCULATION SHIFTS TO THE LOWER RIO GRAND
VALLEY. 305K THETA SURFACE SHOW MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THIS REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SETTLING INTO THIS REGION. THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL ONLY BE NOTICEABLE BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL JET. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND. PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 0.65 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH
FOR LATE OCTOBER IS AT LEAST 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS INITIALLY LACKING WITH QG FORCING FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS AND MOIST UPGLIDE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...WITH THE TERRAIN STILL FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT ON SATURDAY AS THE INSTABILITY AIDS IN
MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS MIXING LOOKS TO ADD
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE PICTURE AND MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A
DOWNTREND IN QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS WAVERING WITH PWAT AS HIGH AS IT
IS. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THESE PERIODS AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PLOW
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. SNOW LEVELS ARE INDICATED TO FALL TO
NEAR 7500 WITH FROPA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE A
SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING
ARRIVES TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. EXPECT MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF FROPA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 301005
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE
DAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

NO SURPRISES IN THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING IT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A RATHER
STRONG...ELONGATED TROUGH ARRIVING TO THE LEFT COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE ANTI CYCLONIC CENTER OF THE RIDGE WAS HAND ANALYZED AT 00Z
NEAR THE AZ/NM AND MEXICO BORDER. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
TRANSLATES EAST THIS CIRCULATION SHIFTS TO THE LOWER RIO GRAND
VALLEY. 305K THETA SURFACE SHOW MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THIS REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SETTLING INTO THIS REGION. THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY BUT WILL ONLY BE NOTICEABLE BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL JET. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND. PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 0.65 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH
FOR LATE OCTOBER IS AT LEAST 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS INITIALLY LACKING WITH QG FORCING FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS AND MOIST UPGLIDE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE QG FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BUT INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...WITH THE TERRAIN STILL FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT ON SATURDAY AS THE INSTABILITY AIDS IN
MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS MIXING LOOKS TO ADD
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE PICTURE AND MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A
DOWNTREND IN QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS WAVERING WITH PWAT AS HIGH AS IT
IS. SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THESE PERIODS AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PLOW
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. SNOW LEVELS ARE INDICATED TO FALL TO
NEAR 7500 WITH FROPA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE A
SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING
ARRIVES TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. EXPECT MARKEDLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF FROPA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 300504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER EXTREME NW CO
AND NE UT WILL WAVE NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...LEAVING NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...IN THE 0.20
INCH RANCH. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...700 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
WILL INCREASE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE A COOL TONIGHT OR THU
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL EDGE UP AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MAY BECOME VISIBLE OVER NORTHEAST UT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. A SMALLER PAC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 130W/25N GETS PULLED UP INTO
THE FAR WEST AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SHOULD STAY TO OUR
WEST...320K/325K ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOWS IT BRINGING
SOME MID AND LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ERN UT/WRN CO FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON. BUT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.

THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS CA ON
SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING OUR AREA
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...CONCENTRATING ON THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE UT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

INITIAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED AS 90 KT UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS. 700
MB TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AIR REACHES NE UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEPS ACROSS WRN CO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER NW FLOW. 700 MB
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING QUICKLY. BOOSTED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
BLENDED SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 700 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND
COLDER NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY 10 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.

NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE DIVIDE ON
MONDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292326
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER EXTREME NW CO
AND NE UT WILL WAVE NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...LEAVING NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...IN THE 0.20
INCH RANCH. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...700 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
WILL INCREASE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE A COOL TONIGHT OR THU
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL EDGE UP AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MAY BECOME VISIBLE OVER NORTHEAST UT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. A SMALLER PAC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 130W/25N GETS PULLED UP INTO
THE FAR WEST AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SHOULD STAY TO OUR
WEST...320K/325K ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOWS IT BRINGING
SOME MID AND LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ERN UT/WRN CO FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON. BUT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.

THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS CA ON
SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING OUR AREA
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...CONCENTRATING ON THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE UT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

INITIAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED AS 90 KT UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS. 700
MB TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AIR REACHES NE UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEPS ACROSS WRN CO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER NW FLOW. 700 MB
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING QUICKLY. BOOSTED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
BLENDED SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 700 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND
COLDER NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY 10 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.

NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE DIVIDE ON
MONDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SKC OR SCT250 CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292033
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
233 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER EXTREME NW CO
AND NE UT WILL WAVE NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...LEAVING NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...IN THE 0.20
INCH RANCH. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...700 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
WILL INCREASE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE A COOL TONIGHT OR THU
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL EDGE UP AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MAY BECOME VISIBLE OVER NORTHEAST UT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. A SMALLER PAC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 130W/25N GETS PULLED UP INTO
THE FAR WEST AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SHOULD STAY TO OUR
WEST...320K/325K ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOWS IT BRINGING
SOME MID AND LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ERN UT/WRN CO FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON. BUT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.

THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS CA ON
SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING OUR AREA
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...CONCENTRATING ON THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE UT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

INITIAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED AS 90 KT UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS. 700
MB TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AIR REACHES NE UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEPS ACROSS WRN CO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER NW FLOW. 700 MB
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING QUICKLY. BOOSTED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
BLENDED SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 700 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND
COLDER NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY 10 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.

NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE DIVIDE ON
MONDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 292033
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
233 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER EXTREME NW CO
AND NE UT WILL WAVE NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...LEAVING NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...IN THE 0.20
INCH RANCH. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...700 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
WILL INCREASE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE A COOL TONIGHT OR THU
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL EDGE UP AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MAY BECOME VISIBLE OVER NORTHEAST UT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. A SMALLER PAC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 130W/25N GETS PULLED UP INTO
THE FAR WEST AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SHOULD STAY TO OUR
WEST...320K/325K ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOWS IT BRINGING
SOME MID AND LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ERN UT/WRN CO FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON. BUT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.

THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS CA ON
SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING OUR AREA
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...CONCENTRATING ON THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE UT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

INITIAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED AS 90 KT UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS. 700
MB TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AIR REACHES NE UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEPS ACROSS WRN CO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER NW FLOW. 700 MB
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING QUICKLY. BOOSTED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
BLENDED SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 700 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND
COLDER NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY 10 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.

NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE DIVIDE ON
MONDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
913 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED AND THE HEADLINE HAVE BEEN REMOVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST KEEPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER COLD
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A MODERATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH LATITUDE ENERGY CARVES A NEW TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...AND DIGS ANOTHER OFF THE LEFT COAST.
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
DIRECTED INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS THIS MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF THIS MOISTURE SURVIVING THE TREK OVER THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AND EXPECT ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY PART
AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESTRICT MIXING GOING INTO
THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE EVEN THOUGH SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE BLOCKY PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY  AS A STRONG JET DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE
ACTIVE PART OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHIFT
ALLOWS THE WESTERN TROUGH TO BEGIN TO MOVE ON-SHORE AND HOPEFULLY
BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE BAJA TOWARD THE 4
CORNERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH A SOURCE REGION IN
THE SUBTROPICS. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT DOES LOOK TO START TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY H7 WINDS INCREASE DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING IN WITH THE SYSTEM AND THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. LIFT IS WEAK SO THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME LATE DAY VIRGA. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP MIXING IMPROVES.

MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A 90 KT JET
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN UINTAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLOW THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF
WHICH STALLS THE FRONT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
BOTH MODELS DO...HOWEVER...GENERATE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY
CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE
SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING ARRIVES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 912 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST KEEPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER COLD
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A MODERATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH LATITUDE ENERGY CARVES A NEW TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...AND DIGS ANOTHER OFF THE LEFT COAST.
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
DIRECTED INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS THIS MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF THIS MOISTURE SURVIVING THE TREK OVER THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AND EXPECT ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY PART
AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESTRICT MIXING GOING INTO
THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE EVEN THOUGH SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE BLOCKY PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY  AS A STRONG JET DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE
ACTIVE PART OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHIFT
ALLOWS THE WESTERN TROUGH TO BEGIN TO MOVE ON-SHORE AND HOPEFULLY
BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE BAJA TOWARD THE 4
CORNERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH A SOURCE REGION IN
THE SUBTROPICS. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT DOES LOOK TO START TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY H7 WINDS INCREASE DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING IN WITH THE SYSTEM AND THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. LIFT IS WEAK SO THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME LATE DAY VIRGA. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP MIXING IMPROVES.

MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A 90 KT JET
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN UINTAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLOW THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF
WHICH STALLS THE FRONT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
BOTH MODELS DO...HOWEVER...GENERATE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY
CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE
SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING ARRIVES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST LIMITS CLOUD COVER AND WIND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-011-020.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 291027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST KEEPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. AFTER ANOTHER COLD
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A MODERATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH LATITUDE ENERGY CARVES A NEW TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...AND DIGS ANOTHER OFF THE LEFT COAST.
DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
DIRECTED INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS THIS MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE OF THIS MOISTURE SURVIVING THE TREK OVER THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AND EXPECT ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY PART
AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESTRICT MIXING GOING INTO
THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL CAPPING STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE EVEN THOUGH SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE BLOCKY PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY  AS A STRONG JET DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE
ACTIVE PART OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHIFT
ALLOWS THE WESTERN TROUGH TO BEGIN TO MOVE ON-SHORE AND HOPEFULLY
BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE BAJA TOWARD THE 4
CORNERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH A SOURCE REGION IN
THE SUBTROPICS. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT DOES LOOK TO START TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY H7 WINDS INCREASE DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING IN WITH THE SYSTEM AND THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. LIFT IS WEAK SO THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME LATE DAY VIRGA. TEMPERATURES INCREASE
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP MIXING IMPROVES.

MODELS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A 90 KT JET
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN UINTAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLOW THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF
WHICH STALLS THE FRONT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
BOTH MODELS DO...HOWEVER...GENERATE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW EVENTUALLY
CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE OFF AND ON IN THE COL BETWEEN THE NORTHERN FLOW AND THE
SOUTHERN LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE DRYING ARRIVES TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST LIMITS CLOUD COVER AND WIND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-011-020.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/15
LONG TERM...15/NL
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 290432
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1032 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SAME WESTERN COLORADO VALLEYS AS LAST NIGHT
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER FRIDAY. EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS STORM WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY NORTH OF OUR AREA
WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND A FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES BY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND
AS CLEAR SKIES PERSIST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ006-011-
     020.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 282240
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
440 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SAME WESTERN COLORADO VALLEYS AS LAST NIGHT
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER FRIDAY. EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS STORM WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY NORTH OF OUR AREA
WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND A FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES BY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BEYOND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ006-011-
     020.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 282037
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
237 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SAME WESTERN COLORADO VALLEYS AS LAST NIGHT
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATER FRIDAY. EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.
MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS STORM WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH
THE GFS PUSHING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND A FAIRLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES BY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS TAF SITES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ006-011-
     020.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JOE





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