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000
FXUS65 KGJT 020924
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
324 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS THE JET STREAM STAYS
OVER THE AMERICAN/CANADIAN BORDER. INTERESTINGLY...THE NAM12 AND
GFS ARE BOTH PUTTING A SMALL CONVECTIVE BULLSEYE OVER THE SAN
JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NAM12 H7 WINDS
SHOWS SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE SAN JUANS EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE
VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE GFS KEEPS WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE PICTURE. WOULD NORMALLY DISCOUNT THIS SOLN BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...IT`S POSSIBLE ENOUGH FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL OCCUR FOR VERY ISOLD SHOWER/QUICK STORM OVER
SMALL PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS. ASIDE FROM THAT...PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY AFTN WINDS FOR MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTER OF
COUNTRY...SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. WATER VAPOR/GOES
DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OFF THE WEFT COAST
WITH RAOBS SHOWING PWATS ALL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA/SIERRA MADRE REGION WHERE CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN CALI. THE
BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH SHOULD
FOCUS THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGHS WILL BE
RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A THIN RIBBON OF
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS MAY POP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION YET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN
THE WEST AND THIS FORCES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK INTO THE GULF
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH UP INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL MODELS BRING A
SHEARING WAVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER
JET SAGS INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA. PWATS MAY APPROACH 3/4 OF AN INCH
IN OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO ZONES NEAR THE MOSITURE TAP WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYING NEAR HALF OF AN INCH. THERE
SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
INSTABILITY IS MODEST...FAVORING THE TERRAIN TO FOCUS THE
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE
DROPPING BACK JUST A TAD WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE IN PLACE.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD ON TAP FOR REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
AS MOISTURE STARTS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO
GFS...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT .7 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR FOUR CORNERS WHICH WILL SEE NEAR TO .9 INCHES. BY
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ALLOWING A
MORE ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWRD WITH PWATS REACHING 1
INCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN MONDAY
AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHUTS OFF THE MOISTURE. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES...ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN/EVENING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE...AN APPROACHING TROUGH...AND AN 80KT JET
STREAK THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

BLENDED FORECAST TEMPS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHICH
SEEMED A BIT OFF AS H7 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES NOT SHOWING THAT MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES TO GET
THEM CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT STILL MAY BE A WEE
BIT COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SUNSHINE ON TAP TODAY WITH A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
SAN JUANS THIS AFTN. EVEN SO...NO TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED.
GUSTY AFTN WINDS POSSIBLE...MAINLY UP NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 020924
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
324 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AS THE JET STREAM STAYS
OVER THE AMERICAN/CANADIAN BORDER. INTERESTINGLY...THE NAM12 AND
GFS ARE BOTH PUTTING A SMALL CONVECTIVE BULLSEYE OVER THE SAN
JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NAM12 H7 WINDS
SHOWS SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE SAN JUANS EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE
VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE GFS KEEPS WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE PICTURE. WOULD NORMALLY DISCOUNT THIS SOLN BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...IT`S POSSIBLE ENOUGH FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL OCCUR FOR VERY ISOLD SHOWER/QUICK STORM OVER
SMALL PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS. ASIDE FROM THAT...PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY AFTN WINDS FOR MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTER OF
COUNTRY...SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. WATER VAPOR/GOES
DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OFF THE WEFT COAST
WITH RAOBS SHOWING PWATS ALL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA/SIERRA MADRE REGION WHERE CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN CALI. THE
BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH SHOULD
FOCUS THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGHS WILL BE
RUNNING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A THIN RIBBON OF
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS MAY POP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION YET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN
THE WEST AND THIS FORCES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK INTO THE GULF
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH UP INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL MODELS BRING A
SHEARING WAVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER
JET SAGS INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA. PWATS MAY APPROACH 3/4 OF AN INCH
IN OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO ZONES NEAR THE MOSITURE TAP WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYING NEAR HALF OF AN INCH. THERE
SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
INSTABILITY IS MODEST...FAVORING THE TERRAIN TO FOCUS THE
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD BE
DROPPING BACK JUST A TAD WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE IN PLACE.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD ON TAP FOR REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
AS MOISTURE STARTS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO
GFS...PWATS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT .7 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR FOUR CORNERS WHICH WILL SEE NEAR TO .9 INCHES. BY
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ALLOWING A
MORE ROBUST SHOT OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWRD WITH PWATS REACHING 1
INCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN MONDAY
AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHUTS OFF THE MOISTURE. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES...ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTN/EVENING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE...AN APPROACHING TROUGH...AND AN 80KT JET
STREAK THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

BLENDED FORECAST TEMPS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHICH
SEEMED A BIT OFF AS H7 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES NOT SHOWING THAT MUCH
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES TO GET
THEM CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT STILL MAY BE A WEE
BIT COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SUNSHINE ON TAP TODAY WITH A POSSIBLE QUICK SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
SAN JUANS THIS AFTN. EVEN SO...NO TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED.
GUSTY AFTN WINDS POSSIBLE...MAINLY UP NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020408
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS FORECAST AREA BEGINS IN THE CONFLICT ZONE BETWEEN THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERLIES TAKE CONTROL.

WEDNESDAY THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A RESULTING DRY SW FLOW WILL BRING THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-AUGUST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOW RH RAISE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THURSDAY THE NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SW INTO OREGON AND OFF
THE WEST COAST. IN RESPONSE A WEAK PACIFIC LOW FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST GETS PULLED INLAND AND IS SHEARED APART AS IT
WORKS INTO THIS FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ALSO
ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DEEPEST IN SE UTAH. AMOUNTS
REMAIN MARGINAL...BETWEEN 0.9 TO 0.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER.
WITH THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR LATE THURSDAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FAVORING
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

A MARGINALLY MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SE STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL LOW GETS PULLED INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THAT MAY
BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 020408
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1008 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS FORECAST AREA BEGINS IN THE CONFLICT ZONE BETWEEN THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERLIES TAKE CONTROL.

WEDNESDAY THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A RESULTING DRY SW FLOW WILL BRING THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-AUGUST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOW RH RAISE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THURSDAY THE NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SW INTO OREGON AND OFF
THE WEST COAST. IN RESPONSE A WEAK PACIFIC LOW FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST GETS PULLED INLAND AND IS SHEARED APART AS IT
WORKS INTO THIS FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ALSO
ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DEEPEST IN SE UTAH. AMOUNTS
REMAIN MARGINAL...BETWEEN 0.9 TO 0.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER.
WITH THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR LATE THURSDAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FAVORING
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

A MARGINALLY MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SE STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL LOW GETS PULLED INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THAT MAY
BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 012043
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS FORECAST AREA BEGINS IN THE CONFLICT ZONE BETWEEN THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERLIES TAKE CONTROL.

WEDNESDAY THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A RESULTING DRY SW FLOW WILL BRING THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-AUGUST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOW RH RAISE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THURSDAY THE NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SW INTO OREGON AND OFF
THE WEST COAST. IN RESPONSE A WEAK PACIFIC LOW FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST GETS PULLED INLAND AND IS SHEARED APART AS IT
WORKS INTO THIS FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ALSO
ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DEEPEST IN SE UTAH. AMOUNTS
REMAIN MARGINAL...BETWEEN 0.9 TO 0.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER.
WITH THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR LATE THURSDAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FAVORING
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

A MARGINALLY MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SE STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL LOW GETS PULLED INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THAT MAY
BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS BY MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 012043
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
243 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS FORECAST AREA BEGINS IN THE CONFLICT ZONE BETWEEN THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERLIES TAKE CONTROL.

WEDNESDAY THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A RESULTING DRY SW FLOW WILL BRING THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MID-AUGUST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOW RH RAISE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THURSDAY THE NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SW INTO OREGON AND OFF
THE WEST COAST. IN RESPONSE A WEAK PACIFIC LOW FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST GETS PULLED INLAND AND IS SHEARED APART AS IT
WORKS INTO THIS FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ALSO
ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...DEEPEST IN SE UTAH. AMOUNTS
REMAIN MARGINAL...BETWEEN 0.9 TO 0.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER.
WITH THIS COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR LATE THURSDAY. SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FAVORING
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

A MARGINALLY MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHERN TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SE STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL LOW GETS PULLED INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH THAT MAY
BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS BY MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...MPM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011651
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL ENJOY JUST ABOUT THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN A MONTH AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KGJT
SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.48 INCHES. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SPEED. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY...SHUTTING
OFF MONSOON MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
CAPE BEING CLOSE TO NIL. TODAY WILL INITIATE AN NICE WARMING
TREND.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE
JET STRAYS OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE
SKIES ON THE CLEAR SIDE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE NAM IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY AS A STRONG EML SETS UP. MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THIS
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO RETURN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. PROFILES SUGGEST LITTLE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS NEAR VIRGA. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST LEADS TO
TO BACKING WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LITTLE HOPE FOR RAINFALL WITHOUT A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARNING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER
THE WESTERN DESERT VALLEYS TO THE 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL HAVE RECEDED BACK TO
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY THE FIRST HINT OF A
RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW APPEARS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE PROJECTED MOVING NORTH OVER
EASTERN AZ. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL ACT TO BEND THE MONSOONAL PLUME TO THE NE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TENDENCY IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL
PLUME OVER THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY...WITH A BIT OF FOCUS EAST OF THE LINE FROM RANGELY TO
GRAND JUNCTION THE BLANDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...MPM




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011651
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL ENJOY JUST ABOUT THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN A MONTH AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KGJT
SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.48 INCHES. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SPEED. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY...SHUTTING
OFF MONSOON MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
CAPE BEING CLOSE TO NIL. TODAY WILL INITIATE AN NICE WARMING
TREND.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE
JET STRAYS OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE
SKIES ON THE CLEAR SIDE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE NAM IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY AS A STRONG EML SETS UP. MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THIS
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO RETURN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. PROFILES SUGGEST LITTLE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS NEAR VIRGA. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST LEADS TO
TO BACKING WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LITTLE HOPE FOR RAINFALL WITHOUT A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARNING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER
THE WESTERN DESERT VALLEYS TO THE 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL HAVE RECEDED BACK TO
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY THE FIRST HINT OF A
RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW APPEARS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE PROJECTED MOVING NORTH OVER
EASTERN AZ. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL ACT TO BEND THE MONSOONAL PLUME TO THE NE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TENDENCY IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL
PLUME OVER THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY...WITH A BIT OF FOCUS EAST OF THE LINE FROM RANGELY TO
GRAND JUNCTION THE BLANDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...MPM





000
FXUS65 KGJT 011015
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL ENJOY JUST ABOUT THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN A MONTH AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KGJT
SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.48 INCHES. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SPEED. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY...SHUTTING
OFF MONSOON MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
CAPE BEING CLOSE TO NIL. TODAY WILL INITIATE AN NICE WARMING
TREND.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE
JET STRAYS OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE
SKIES ON THE CLEAR SIDE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE NAM IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY AS A STRONG EML SETS UP. MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THIS
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO RETURN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. PROFILES SUGGEST LITTLE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS NEAR VIRGA. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST LEADS TO
TO BACKING WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LITTLE HOPE FOR RAINFALL WITHOUT A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARNING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER
THE WESTERN DESERT VALLEYS TO THE 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL HAVE RECEDED BACK TO
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY THE FIRST HINT OF A
RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW APPEARS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE PROJECTED MOVING NORTH OVER
EASTERN AZ. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL ACT TO BEND THE MONSOONAL PLUME TO THE NE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TENDENCY IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL
PLUME OVER THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY...WITH A BIT OF FOCUS EAST OF THE LINE FROM RANGELY TO
GRAND JUNCTION THE BLANDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 011015
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL ENJOY JUST ABOUT THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN A MONTH AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KGJT
SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.48 INCHES. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SPEED. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY...SHUTTING
OFF MONSOON MOISTURE. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS
CAPE BEING CLOSE TO NIL. TODAY WILL INITIATE AN NICE WARMING
TREND.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE
JET STRAYS OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE
SKIES ON THE CLEAR SIDE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE NAM IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY AS A STRONG EML SETS UP. MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THIS
LAYER APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO RETURN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. PROFILES SUGGEST LITTLE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS NEAR VIRGA. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST LEADS TO
TO BACKING WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LITTLE HOPE FOR RAINFALL WITHOUT A
MOISTURE TAP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARNING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER
THE WESTERN DESERT VALLEYS TO THE 70S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SHOULD END UP BEING SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL HAVE RECEDED BACK TO
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY THE FIRST HINT OF A
RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW APPEARS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE PROJECTED MOVING NORTH OVER
EASTERN AZ. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL ACT TO BEND THE MONSOONAL PLUME TO THE NE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TENDENCY IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL
PLUME OVER THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED THE HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY...WITH A BIT OF FOCUS EAST OF THE LINE FROM RANGELY TO
GRAND JUNCTION THE BLANDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 010459
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 010459
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312300
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COOL FRONT HAS SETTLED NEAR THE 1-70 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MAY GUST TO NEAR THE 50 MPH MARK
THROUGH 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY CIGS AOA 9KFT
AGL. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE HOWEVER MAY
LEAD TO SOME INTERRUPTION OF FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND LIMIT RUNWAY
LANDING AND TAKEOFF OPTIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312300
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COOL FRONT HAS SETTLED NEAR THE 1-70 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MAY GUST TO NEAR THE 50 MPH MARK
THROUGH 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY CIGS AOA 9KFT
AGL. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE HOWEVER MAY
LEAD TO SOME INTERRUPTION OF FLIGHT OPERATIONS AND LIMIT RUNWAY
LANDING AND TAKEOFF OPTIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 312025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
225 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 312025
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
225 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NOW OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE SET UP
BY FLOW INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN FEATURES...UINTAH MTNS...FLAT
TOPS AND GRAND MESA...AIDED BY WEAK MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN
MTNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUT A QUICK END TO PRECIP THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WILL
PROVIDE ROOM FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES STRETCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE THE AREA CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD...AND
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE REGION...THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW DEEP
AND EXTENSIVE THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WET FEW DAYS...FROM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 311737 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 311737 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEFT VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AT KEGE AND KASE FOR SHRA THAT MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA PRODUCTION ARE MOVING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE WIND.
DEEPER MIXING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
KICK UP WINDS THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTS NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311544 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER COLORADO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY JUST
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS
NOSING OVER NORTHERN CO. ALL OF THESE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ONGOING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NRN CO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
LIMITED MAINLY TO NRN COLORADO AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
KEGE AND KASE HAVE ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311034
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
KEGE AND KASE HAVE ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 311034
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
KEGE AND KASE HAVE ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z...SO IMPACTS ON TAF
SITES UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT AREA TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...
AND KASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 03Z/MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 310433
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z...SO IMPACTS ON TAF
SITES UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AT AREA TAF SITES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS AROUND A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...
AND KASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG AND
UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 03Z/MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF KDWX TO KDRO LINE THROUGH 03Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. KASE AND KRIL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING SHOWERS...THOUGH ITS UNLIKELY THAT THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL DROP BELOW VFR. EXPECT DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
ALL BUT THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z TO
18Z/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TO 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302303
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF KDWX TO KDRO LINE THROUGH 03Z.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. KASE AND KRIL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING SHOWERS...THOUGH ITS UNLIKELY THAT THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL DROP BELOW VFR. EXPECT DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR
ALL BUT THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z TO
18Z/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TO 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE STORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 302029
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
229 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN





000
FXUS65 KGJT 302029
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
229 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MT TO
UT. EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN ADVANCE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS CO SUNDAY. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AROUND 0.80 INCH. DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND QG FORCING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING 100 KT UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST
UT AND NRN CO WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IT TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
TOTAL CESSATION. GREATEST CHANCES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY MAX OUT
AROUND MIDDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO DIMINISH COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS AND SPEED SHEAR RATHER STRONG...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG GUST POTENTIAL
THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(LABOR DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MONDAY BEGINS WITH THE UPPER JET ALONG THE CO/WY BORDER. THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS A WEAK IMPULSE PASSES TO OUR NORTH EARLY
IN THE DAY. WHILE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
WEEKEND`S. BUT WE WILL STILL FEEL SOME MODERATE BREEZES OVER THE
NORTH. THE AIR MASS DRIES AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT...
CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY
THU THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY EJECTING
SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOWEVER WILL RESULT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DOOR
IS OPENED TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODEL CONSISTENCY
DROPS. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH GREATLY WEAKENING BY SAT AS
MORE ENERGY WILL HAVE SPLIT OFF PIECEMEAL DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MON MORNING PROMISES TO BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH THE SOME OF THE
HIGHER AND NORTHERN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301741 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHLINE...ALONG WITH A FEW SMALL VORT MAXES. THESE WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.60 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADD SOME
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREDICTED PWAT RISING ABOVE 0.70
INCHES AND CAPE IN THE 300 TO 600 JOULE RANGE. SO WITH A LITTLE
DYNAMIC LIFT...A BIT OF SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...AND THE MID LEVELS
MOISTENING A LITTLE AS WELL...BELIEVE ISOLD TO LOW-END SCATTERED
POPS ARE STILL A GOOD BET FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST POPS
FROM THE BOOKCLIFFS NORTH. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
5 DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LARGE OPEN TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON IT/S WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HELP PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACCORDING TO PWATS...PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 0.75 OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. HOWEVER PROFILES MOST OF THIS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE
MID AN UPPER LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A SHARPER CYCLONIC CURVE TO THE JET OVER
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOLUTION IS TAMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THE GFS/EURO KEEP A BROADER CURVE TO THE JET AND THE
BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH. IMPLICATIONS IN THE NAM SOLUTION
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE OTHER SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MORE WIND THAN RAIN LIKELY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND
ENDED PRECIPITATION QUICKER AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE NAM
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A FRONT AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR CENTRAL
CWA. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE EURO KEEP THE FRONT WELL TO THE
NORTH. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE STILL USED FOR HIGHS AS THERE IS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEST
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS ZONAL TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS TO THE WEST.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST MONDAY WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER AZ
AND NM...USHERING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE PACNW AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN




000
FXUS65 KGJT 301741 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHLINE...ALONG WITH A FEW SMALL VORT MAXES. THESE WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE IS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.60 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADD SOME
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREDICTED PWAT RISING ABOVE 0.70
INCHES AND CAPE IN THE 300 TO 600 JOULE RANGE. SO WITH A LITTLE
DYNAMIC LIFT...A BIT OF SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...AND THE MID LEVELS
MOISTENING A LITTLE AS WELL...BELIEVE ISOLD TO LOW-END SCATTERED
POPS ARE STILL A GOOD BET FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST POPS
FROM THE BOOKCLIFFS NORTH. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
5 DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A LARGE OPEN TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON IT/S WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HELP PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACCORDING TO PWATS...PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 0.75 OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. HOWEVER PROFILES MOST OF THIS MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE
MID AN UPPER LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A SHARPER CYCLONIC CURVE TO THE JET OVER
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SOLUTION IS TAMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THE GFS/EURO KEEP A BROADER CURVE TO THE JET AND THE
BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH. IMPLICATIONS IN THE NAM SOLUTION
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE OTHER SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MORE WIND THAN RAIN LIKELY IN NORTHERN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND
ENDED PRECIPITATION QUICKER AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS WELL TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE NAM
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A FRONT AND COOLER AIR INTO OUR CENTRAL
CWA. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE EURO KEEP THE FRONT WELL TO THE
NORTH. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE STILL USED FOR HIGHS AS THERE IS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEST
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS ZONAL TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS TO THE WEST.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST MONDAY WITH MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER AZ
AND NM...USHERING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING THE WINDS ALOFT TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE PACNW AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
CNY TO MTJ LINE AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...WINDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN





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