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000
FXUS65 KGJT 180629
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED WINTER HEADLINES IN SOUTHEAST UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THIS IS RESULTING ON
LOW CIGS AT MANY AIRPORTS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AFTER 07Z OVERNIGHT THEN HEAD SOUTH TOWARD
THE SW COLORADO AIRPORTS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. AIRPORTS WILL
SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ009-010-
     012-018.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 180629
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED WINTER HEADLINES IN SOUTHEAST UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THIS IS RESULTING ON
LOW CIGS AT MANY AIRPORTS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AFTER 07Z OVERNIGHT THEN HEAD SOUTH TOWARD
THE SW COLORADO AIRPORTS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. AIRPORTS WILL
SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ009-010-
     012-018.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 180629
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED WINTER HEADLINES IN SOUTHEAST UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THIS IS RESULTING ON
LOW CIGS AT MANY AIRPORTS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AFTER 07Z OVERNIGHT THEN HEAD SOUTH TOWARD
THE SW COLORADO AIRPORTS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. AIRPORTS WILL
SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ009-010-
     012-018.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 180629
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED WINTER HEADLINES IN SOUTHEAST UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THIS IS RESULTING ON
LOW CIGS AT MANY AIRPORTS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AFTER 07Z OVERNIGHT THEN HEAD SOUTH TOWARD
THE SW COLORADO AIRPORTS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. AIRPORTS WILL
SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ009-010-
     012-018.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-
     004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 180553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THIS IS RESULTING ON
LOW CIGS AT MANY AIRPORTS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AFTER 07Z OVERNIGHT THEN HEAD SOUTH TOWARD
THE SW COLORADO AIRPORTS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. AIRPORTS WILL
SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 180553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE
SHOWS A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THIS IS RESULTING ON
LOW CIGS AT MANY AIRPORTS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AFTER 07Z OVERNIGHT THEN HEAD SOUTH TOWARD
THE SW COLORADO AIRPORTS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. AIRPORTS WILL
SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 172159
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...AIRPORTS WILL SEE PERIODS MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 172159 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CORRECTED HEADING FOR THE AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...AIRPORTS WILL SEE PERIODS MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL




000
FXUS65 KGJT 172159 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CORRECTED HEADING FOR THE AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...AIRPORTS WILL SEE PERIODS MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL





000
FXUS65 KGJT 171821
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1221 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

HAVE ADDED THE EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TAVAPUTS PLATEAU ZONES TO
THE SNOW ADVISORIES. A GOOD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
EASTERN UT TODAY. THEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN SLOPES WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORED...INCLUDING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TAVAPUTS.
WHILE OBSERVATIONS FROM THESE ZONES ARE SPOTTY...IT APPEARS THEY
HAVE RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW ALREADY IN SOME LOCATION.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SNOW CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING.

ALSO UPGRADED THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY AND THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU TO WARNINGS. LATE SEASON WARNING CRITERIA HAS ALREADY
ACCUMULATED IN THESE ZONES...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CO. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS SNOW...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
COMMON IN THE VALLEYS FROM PRECIPITATION OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
FROM KCEZ-KDRO- KPSO THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WILL AFFECT KVEL UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE
EXIT SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 12Z SAT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171821
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1221 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

HAVE ADDED THE EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TAVAPUTS PLATEAU ZONES TO
THE SNOW ADVISORIES. A GOOD AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
EASTERN UT TODAY. THEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN SLOPES WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORED...INCLUDING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TAVAPUTS.
WHILE OBSERVATIONS FROM THESE ZONES ARE SPOTTY...IT APPEARS THEY
HAVE RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW ALREADY IN SOME LOCATION.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SNOW CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING.

ALSO UPGRADED THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY AND THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU TO WARNINGS. LATE SEASON WARNING CRITERIA HAS ALREADY
ACCUMULATED IN THESE ZONES...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CO. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS SNOW...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
COMMON IN THE VALLEYS FROM PRECIPITATION OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
FROM KCEZ-KDRO- KPSO THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WILL AFFECT KVEL UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE
EXIT SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW...MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 12Z SAT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 171658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROS THE FORECAST AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CO. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS SNOW...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN
THE VALLEYS FROM PRECIPITATION OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS FROM KCEZ-KDRO-
KPSO THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL AFFECT
KVEL UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED OF THE
UPPER LOW...MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 12Z SAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 171658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROS THE FORECAST AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CO. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS SNOW...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN
THE VALLEYS FROM PRECIPITATION OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS FROM KCEZ-KDRO-
KPSO THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL AFFECT
KVEL UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED OF THE
UPPER LOW...MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 12Z SAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD





000
FXUS65 KGJT 171658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROS THE FORECAST AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CO. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS SNOW...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN
THE VALLEYS FROM PRECIPITATION OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS FROM KCEZ-KDRO-
KPSO THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL AFFECT
KVEL UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED OF THE
UPPER LOW...MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 12Z SAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROS THE FORECAST AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CO. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS SNOW...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN
THE VALLEYS FROM PRECIPITATION OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS FROM KCEZ-KDRO-
KPSO THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL AFFECT
KVEL UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED OF THE
UPPER LOW...MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 12Z SAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171531
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171531
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 171254
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
654 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171254
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
654 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 171254
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
654 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171254
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
654 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 171010
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 171010
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 50 KTS AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 170553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ERN UINTA BASIN/NW COLORADO
EXPIRE AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE HOURLY AVIATION GUIDANCE AND
00Z NAM INDICATE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PLANS TO HOIST ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE 00Z NAM DOES SHOW 25KTS AT 850MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS OCCUR FOR ONE
MORE DAY...BUT NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE COMMON DURING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH
THE SNOW LEVEL RANGING FROM 5K TO 6K FEET. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW OR RAIN WILL
BRING TAF SITES SUCH AS KRIL...KASE...KEGE...CIGS BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS FREQUENTLY IF NOT PERSISTENTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR THE I-70 AIRPORTS BETWEEN 16 AND 22Z...BUT THEN
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AGAIN AROUND 00Z FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE EAST.

KVEL WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT EVEN STRONGER GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 15Z FRI.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 170316
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ERN UINTA BASIN/NW COLORADO
EXPIRE AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE HOURLY AVIATION GUIDANCE AND
00Z NAM INDICATE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PLANS TO HOIST ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE 00Z NAM DOES SHOW 25KTS AT 850MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS OCCUR FOR ONE
MORE DAY...BUT NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CIGS WILL BE COMMON DURING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL RANGING FROM 5K TO 6K FEET. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES SUCH
AS KRIL...KASE...KEGE...CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE COMMON
IF NOT PERSISTENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z FRI IS EXPECTED AS
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTS TO DIMINISHED.

KVEL...NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KTS IS EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS MAY ABATE OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT STRONG NE GUSTS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z FRI.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 170316
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ERN UINTA BASIN/NW COLORADO
EXPIRE AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE HOURLY AVIATION GUIDANCE AND
00Z NAM INDICATE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. NO PLANS TO HOIST ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE 00Z NAM DOES SHOW 25KTS AT 850MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS OCCUR FOR ONE
MORE DAY...BUT NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CIGS WILL BE COMMON DURING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL RANGING FROM 5K TO 6K FEET. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES SUCH
AS KRIL...KASE...KEGE...CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE COMMON
IF NOT PERSISTENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z FRI IS EXPECTED AS
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTS TO DIMINISHED.

KVEL...NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KTS IS EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS MAY ABATE OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT STRONG NE GUSTS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z FRI.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 162355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CIGS WILL BE COMMON DURING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL RANGING FROM 5K TO 6K FEET. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES SUCH
AS KRIL...KASE...KEGE...CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE COMMON
IF NOT PERSISTENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z FRI IS EXPECTED AS
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTS TO DIMINISHED.

KVEL...NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KTS IS EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS MAY ABATE OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT STRONG NE GUSTS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z FRI.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 162355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CIGS WILL BE COMMON DURING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL RANGING FROM 5K TO 6K FEET. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES SUCH
AS KRIL...KASE...KEGE...CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE COMMON
IF NOT PERSISTENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z FRI IS EXPECTED AS
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTS TO DIMINISHED.

KVEL...NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KTS IS EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS MAY ABATE OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT STRONG NE GUSTS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z FRI.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CIGS WILL BE COMMON DURING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL RANGING FROM 5K TO 6K FEET. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES SUCH
AS KRIL...KASE...KEGE...CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE COMMON
IF NOT PERSISTENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z FRI IS EXPECTED AS
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTS TO DIMINISHED.

KVEL...NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KTS IS EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS MAY ABATE OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT STRONG NE GUSTS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z FRI.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CIGS WILL BE COMMON DURING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL RANGING FROM 5K TO 6K FEET. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES SUCH
AS KRIL...KASE...KEGE...CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS WILL BE COMMON
IF NOT PERSISTENT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z FRI IS EXPECTED AS
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTS TO DIMINISHED.

KVEL...NORTHEAST WIND WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KTS IS EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS MAY ABATE OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT STRONG NE GUSTS ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z FRI.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 162226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER SLOWLY INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL DROP IN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS.
THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED... ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 162226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER SLOWLY INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL DROP IN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS.
THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED... ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER SLOWLY INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL DROP IN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS.
THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED... ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 162226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A COLD AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW WAS OVER SE UT/NE AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW
AND UP INTO CO WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING AND EXPANDING ACROSS SW CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY LED TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED EARLIER...
AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SUCH INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. 700 MB LOW SHOWN LIFTING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MTNS UP THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UPGRADED THE
WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW SAN JUANS MTNS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND COUNTING ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE NW FLOW LATER FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT TO MAINTAIN SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY TARGET THE
UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE. ALSO ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
GUNNISON/CERRO SUMMIT AREAS AND THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS WITH THE 700
MB LOW MOVING ACROSS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRI WITH
MOISTENING WARM ADVECTIVE UPGLIDE ON THE 295K/300K INSENTROPIC
SURFACES INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THERE. THIS ALSO CREATES A
TIGHTENING 700 TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THAT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THOUGH
STRONGER CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL DRIVE SNOW TO SOME
VALLEY FLOORS. THOUGH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS 700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE DIFFER BETWEEN MODELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED
GRAND MESA TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THE REGION`S RESIDENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AROUND
EAST/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN COLORADO ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHWEST FOR A TIME WHICH
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE KICKER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FORM OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND TROUGH BRUSHES
NORTHEST UT AND NORTHWEST CO...THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...WEAK DYNAMICS FROM THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO...AND
OVER ALL THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COMPICATED SERIES OF
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME
NONE OF THESE SEEM OVERLY STRONG. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE
DISTURBANCES ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED...SO WILL KEEP A BROAD-BRUSHED
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DO SLOWLY INCREASE. BY TUESDAY MORE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER SLOWLY INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL DROP IN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS.
THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED... ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ017-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 161737
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

RATHER NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW STILL PERSISTED ACROSS A
PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL CO LATE THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST IN
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATED AROUND A FOUR CORNERS LOW AND NORTH
INTO CO. SNOW HAS TAKEN A BREAK AT MONTROSE BUT CONTINUED AT GRAND
JCT AT 11 AM. SOME AREAS IN THE GRAND VALLEY HAVE SEEN LOCALLY UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY AREAS PER PUBLIC REPORTS...BUT EXPECT
THIS TO MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND MOVES OUT AND TEMPS WARM.
HOWEVER...DID UPDATE TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA DUE TO THIS MORNING`S CLOUDS AND PRECIP
HAMPERING THE DIURNAL WARM-UP.

16Z RAP SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING NORTH TROUGH CENTRAL CO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THIS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP FOR AT LEAST
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NRN MTNS AS EASTERLY FLOW ALSO BRINGS MORE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE DIVIDE. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER
LOW OVER SW CO/NW NM FRI MORNING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

GRAND JCT RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WAS SNOW PER
PUBLIC REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY LONG-LASTING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE VALLEYS THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY
TEMPORARILY WHITEN GRASSY SURFACES. HI-RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA DECREASING...OR AT LEAST SLIDING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY KICKS IN EVEN MORE.

LET THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS WHERE
SNOW IS OCCURRING MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR A BIT LONGER
THOUGH...LIKE DELTA/MONTROSE/PAONIA AREAS. FREEZE WATCH REMAINS
FOR THE CORTEZ-YELLOWJACKET AREA EARLY FRI MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER SLOWLY INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL DROP IN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS.
THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED... ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-009-
     013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH




000
FXUS65 KGJT 161654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

GRAND JCT RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WAS SNOW PER
PUBLIC REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY LONG-LASTING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE VALLEYS THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY
TEMPORARILY WHITEN GRASSY SURFACES. HI-RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA DECREASING...OR AT LEAST SLIDING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY KICKS IN EVEN MORE.

LET THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS WHERE
SNOW IS OCCURRING MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR A BIT LONGER
THOUGH...LIKE DELTA/MONTROSE/PAONIA AREAS. FREEZE WATCH REMAINS
FOR THE CORTEZ-YELLOWJACKET AREA EARLY FRI MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WILL MEANDER SLOWLY INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL COLORADO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL DROP IN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS.
THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT.
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED... ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-009-
     013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...EH





000
FXUS65 KGJT 161538
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
938 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

GRAND JCT RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WAS SNOW PER
PUBLIC REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY LONG-LASTING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE VALLEYS THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY
TEMPORARILY WHITEN GRASSY SURFACES. HI-RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA DECREASING...OR AT LEAST SLIDING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY KICKS IN EVEN MORE.

LET THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS WHERE
SNOW IS OCCURRING MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR A BIT LONGER
THOUGH...LIKE DELTA/MONTROSE/PAONIA AREAS. FREEZE WATCH REMAINS
FOR THE CORTEZ-YELLOWJACKET AREA EARLY FRI MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-009-
     013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 161538
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
938 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

GRAND JCT RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL CO THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WAS SNOW PER
PUBLIC REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY LONG-LASTING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE VALLEYS THOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY
TEMPORARILY WHITEN GRASSY SURFACES. HI-RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA DECREASING...OR AT LEAST SLIDING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE INCREASE ACROSS
ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY KICKS IN EVEN MORE.

LET THE FREEZE WARNING EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS WHERE
SNOW IS OCCURRING MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR A BIT LONGER
THOUGH...LIKE DELTA/MONTROSE/PAONIA AREAS. FREEZE WATCH REMAINS
FOR THE CORTEZ-YELLOWJACKET AREA EARLY FRI MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ004-009-
     013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 161222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-006-011-
     021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ004-009-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-024-027-
     029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 161222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-006-011-
     021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ004-009-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-024-027-
     029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 161222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-006-011-
     021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ004-009-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-024-027-
     029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 161222
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
622 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF HOWLING WINDS IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
AREA HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAK GUSTS ON SENSORS
IN THE AREA SHOWING 25-35 MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG H7 FLOW AROUND NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXCEED 50 KTS AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW IN THE PAST GENERATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
STEAMBOAT AND ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
PLAY CRITICAL ROLE AND MODELS STILL A BIT OUT OF PHASE IN EXACT
PATH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADVISE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME...BOOSTED SPEEDS UP A FEW CATEGORIES
FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR THE HILLS AND GUST TO UP TO 45
FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-006-011-
     021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ004-009-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-024-027-
     029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 161016
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-006-011-
     021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ004-009-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-024-027-
     029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC




000
FXUS65 KGJT 161016
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

SPRING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AS
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS...WHILE
OTHERS (THE EASTERN UINTAS) HAVE ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS LATER THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY HIGHER THAN 9000 FT STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE EASTERN UINTAS. THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONSTANT SNOWFALL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD OF
THE WINTER HAZARDS...WHEN THE DIRECTION IS RIGHT COMBINED WITH
LIFTING DUE TO THE PASSING CLOSED LOW...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL PILE
UP QUICKLY AT THESE HIGHER LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE ON THE
MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND NOW INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING CLOSED LOW. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING THE MOUNTAIN SHADOW EFFECT. SPEC
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO REACH AND EXCEED 4 G/KG
WHICH IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH SUCH A COLD SYSTEM IN APRIL. SNOW
LEVEL IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE AND AM EXPECTING NORTHERN COLORADO
VALLEYS TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ALL FORECAST MODELS REALLY PICK UP COVERAGE IN
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-70 TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND WET MUCH OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE WILL RECEIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY.

ADDED NORTHERN SAN JUANS TO A WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING TONIGHT
AS WE ANTICIPATE FLOW CHANGING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS AREA
TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW IF THE LOW STAYS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS EVEN A COUPLE DAYS OUT DUE TO THE
LOW TRACKING SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MEANDERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS WE
START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE...EXPECTED TO BE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MAY
KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND OTHER FAVORED NORTH FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BEFORE A KICKING WAVE DROPS INTO MONTANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KICK THE LOW OUT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST NW FLOW HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE SEASON SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 9K LEVEL.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WHICH WILL MODIFY TEMPS UP A BIT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS ROLLING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW BEING ADVERTISED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK PROMISES TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE THE WEEK OUT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TODAY AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDS ANTICIPATED LATER
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-006-011-
     021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ004-009-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ010-012.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR COZ018.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-024-027-
     029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC





000
FXUS65 KGJT 160554
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1154 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN
OVER THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SUGGEST THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY.
MUCH OF THIS IS INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT
EXPANDING OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT A
FLURRY MAY REACH SOME OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW WITH
NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN BEING FAVORABLE FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR
300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE
WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HILLS.
CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS
OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A
GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG
UPSTREAM FETCH OVER LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
MON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K TO 10K FEET WILL LIFT SOME
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT A RETURN TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER
18Z THURSDAY...SO ANTICIPATING CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH TAF SITES SEEING OVC CIGS FROM GENERALLY 5K
TO 10K FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WHEN MORE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRING
DETERIORATING VISIBILITY. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 160554
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1154 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN
OVER THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SUGGEST THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY.
MUCH OF THIS IS INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT
EXPANDING OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT A
FLURRY MAY REACH SOME OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW WITH
NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN BEING FAVORABLE FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR
300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE
WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HILLS.
CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS
OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A
GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG
UPSTREAM FETCH OVER LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
MON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K TO 10K FEET WILL LIFT SOME
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT A RETURN TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER
18Z THURSDAY...SO ANTICIPATING CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH TAF SITES SEEING OVC CIGS FROM GENERALLY 5K
TO 10K FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WHEN MORE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRING
DETERIORATING VISIBILITY. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 160554
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1154 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN
OVER THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SUGGEST THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY.
MUCH OF THIS IS INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT
EXPANDING OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT A
FLURRY MAY REACH SOME OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW WITH
NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN BEING FAVORABLE FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR
300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE
WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HILLS.
CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS
OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A
GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG
UPSTREAM FETCH OVER LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
MON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K TO 10K FEET WILL LIFT SOME
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT A RETURN TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER
18Z THURSDAY...SO ANTICIPATING CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH TAF SITES SEEING OVC CIGS FROM GENERALLY 5K
TO 10K FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WHEN MORE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRING
DETERIORATING VISIBILITY. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 160554
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1154 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN
OVER THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SUGGEST THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY.
MUCH OF THIS IS INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT
EXPANDING OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT A
FLURRY MAY REACH SOME OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW WITH
NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN BEING FAVORABLE FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR
300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE
WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HILLS.
CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS
OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A
GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG
UPSTREAM FETCH OVER LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
MON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K TO 10K FEET WILL LIFT SOME
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT A RETURN TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER
18Z THURSDAY...SO ANTICIPATING CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY WITH TAF SITES SEEING OVC CIGS FROM GENERALLY 5K
TO 10K FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH
AS TO WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL. LEFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WHEN MORE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BRING
DETERIORATING VISIBILITY. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152356
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN
OVER THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SUGGEST THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY.
MUCH OF THIS IS INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT
EXPANDING OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT A
FLURRY MAY REACH SOME OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW WITH
NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN BEING FAVORABLE FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR
300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE
WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HILLS.
CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS
OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A
GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG
UPSTREAM FETCH OVER LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
MON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K TO 10K FEET WILL LIFT SOME TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT A RETURN TOMORROW. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ANTICIPATED
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH TAF SITES
SEEING OVC CIGS FROM GENERALLY 5K TO 10K FEET. SOME PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY
HIGH AS TO WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL...THUS...LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
MOST SITES. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR





000
FXUS65 KGJT 152356
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
556 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN
OVER THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
SUGGEST THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY.
MUCH OF THIS IS INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT
EXPANDING OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT A
FLURRY MAY REACH SOME OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW WITH
NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN BEING FAVORABLE FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW
OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR
300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE
WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HILLS.
CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS
OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A
GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG
UPSTREAM FETCH OVER LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
MON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING AND THEY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 5K TO 10K FEET WILL LIFT SOME TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT A RETURN TOMORROW. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ANTICIPATED
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH TAF SITES
SEEING OVC CIGS FROM GENERALLY 5K TO 10K FEET. SOME PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY
HIGH AS TO WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL...THUS...LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
MOST SITES. THIS UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152149
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATIONS
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN OVER
THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SUGGEST
THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS
BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND INTO THE THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY. MUCH OF THIS IS
INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT EXPANDING OVER OUR
EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY REACH SOME OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW...WITH THE NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN FAVORABLE
FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR 300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE
CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD
CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE WITH POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE EASTERN HILLS. CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT
ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND  WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG UPSTREAM FETCH OVER
LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GAS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NAN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GAS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
YON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BRING BOTH A THREAT OF TURBULENCE BUT ALSO
PASSING SHOWERS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF A KCAG TO KEEO TO KMTJ LINE WITH IMPACTS MORE
LIKELY AT KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SCATTERED
NATURE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE PULLING MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO EASTERN UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP OBSCURATION OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152149
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATIONS
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN OVER
THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SUGGEST
THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS
BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND INTO THE THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY. MUCH OF THIS IS
INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT EXPANDING OVER OUR
EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY REACH SOME OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW...WITH THE NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN FAVORABLE
FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR 300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE
CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD
CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE WITH POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE EASTERN HILLS. CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT
ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND  WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG UPSTREAM FETCH OVER
LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GAS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NAN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GAS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
YON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BRING BOTH A THREAT OF TURBULENCE BUT ALSO
PASSING SHOWERS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF A KCAG TO KEEO TO KMTJ LINE WITH IMPACTS MORE
LIKELY AT KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SCATTERED
NATURE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE PULLING MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO EASTERN UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP OBSCURATION OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 152149
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATIONS
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN OVER
THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SUGGEST
THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS
BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND INTO THE THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY. MUCH OF THIS IS
INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT EXPANDING OVER OUR
EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY REACH SOME OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW...WITH THE NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN FAVORABLE
FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR 300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE
CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD
CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE WITH POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE EASTERN HILLS. CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT
ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND  WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG UPSTREAM FETCH OVER
LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GAS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NAN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GAS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
YON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BRING BOTH A THREAT OF TURBULENCE BUT ALSO
PASSING SHOWERS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF A KCAG TO KEEO TO KMTJ LINE WITH IMPACTS MORE
LIKELY AT KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SCATTERED
NATURE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE PULLING MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO EASTERN UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP OBSCURATION OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 152149
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
349 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

12Z H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW HAD CLOSED OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATIONS
PEGGED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WERE SEEN OVER
THE GRAND FLATS AREA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SUGGEST
THE LOW HAS DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS
BEEN FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA AND INTO THE THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES TODAY. MUCH OF THIS IS
INSTABILITY DRIVEN WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT EXPANDING OVER OUR
EASTERN CWA. ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. EXTREMELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT THERE MAY BE A FLURRY REACH SOME OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
IN THE PBL. THE FOCUS FOR THIS STORM WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH
TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW...WITH THE NORTHEAST UTAH TERRAIN FAVORABLE
FOR COLLECTING MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES NEAR 300K SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CWA TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE NOSE OF THE
CYCLONIC JET PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SPREAD
CLOUDINESS WESTWARD FOR SURE WITH POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE EASTERN HILLS. CLOUDS COULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT BUT WHERE THIS OCCURS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PREDICT
ATTM. DO FEEL WITH SUNSET A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
WILL DISSIPATE SO HAVE STAYED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

VERY TRICKY FORECAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE DETAILS ON FOCUS AREAS FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION.  THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AND WOBBLE AROUND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY.  MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THIS LOW IN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
BENEFIT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN UINTAS THAT
BENEFIT IN NORTHEAST FLOW WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND LOOKS ON
TRACK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FAVORING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS FOR BEST PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME AS VORT LOBES ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND THE ISENTROPIC FLOW LOOKS BEST OVER THOSE AREAS.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FLOW STILL TENDS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST SLOPES FOR BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  MOISTURE IS ALSO NOT AS PREVALENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.4 INCHES.  THE TREND TODAY
ACCORDING TO WEBCAMS IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING IS MELTING DUE
TO THE ROADS BEING WARM FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. SO THINKING
THAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WOULD MELT AS IT FALLS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME AREAS AS SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONVECTIVE WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON WHICH AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS SO DID NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.  THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONSIDER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING AND WHERE CONVECTION AND PRECIP
BANDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. 300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SHOWED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE ERN UINTAS AND  WRN CO SAT. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES THEN FOLLOW IN THE NW FLOW SUNDAY MONDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH THE LONG UPSTREAM FETCH OVER
LAND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

GAS AND ECMWF DIVERGE HANDLING A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST
MONDAY AND A PACIFIC TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH INLAND TUE-WED. ECMWF
SWINGS THE CA LOW ACROSS NAN BAJA AND TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A THE PAC LOW EJECTING A WAVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED.
GAS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE CA LOW AND HAS
THE PAC TROUGH DIRECTING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE COAST THAN INLAND.
WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING...WILL
KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER MTNS
YON-WED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BRING BOTH A THREAT OF TURBULENCE BUT ALSO
PASSING SHOWERS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF A KCAG TO KEEO TO KMTJ LINE WITH IMPACTS MORE
LIKELY AT KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SCATTERED
NATURE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE PULLING MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO EASTERN UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP OBSCURATION OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/MDA
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 151655
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

WATER VAPOR APPEARS TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROP FOLD SWINGING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO THE YAMPA VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPPED THE POPS AND WILL BE WATCHING WEB CAMS
FOR IMPACTS. CURRENTLY ROADS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE
SNOWFALL WITHOUT MUCH COVERAGE. STILL A TRICKY FORECAST THE LOW
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING SETTLING SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS
OVERNIGHT THEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE COLORADO PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

TALKED WITH LOCAL EXTENSION SERVICE IN THE CORTEZ REGION AND
APPEARS MANY FRUIT TREES ARE IN THE FULL BLOOM IN PROTECTED
CANYONS. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO THIS AREA FOR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BRING BOTH A THREAT OF TURBULENCE BUT ALSO
PASSING SHOWERS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF A KCAG TO KEEO TO KMTJ LINE WITH IMPACTS MORE
LIKELY AT KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SCATTERED
NATURE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE PULLING MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO EASTERN UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP OBSCURATION OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...15




000
FXUS65 KGJT 151655
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

WATER VAPOR APPEARS TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROP FOLD SWINGING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO THE YAMPA VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPPED THE POPS AND WILL BE WATCHING WEB CAMS
FOR IMPACTS. CURRENTLY ROADS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE
SNOWFALL WITHOUT MUCH COVERAGE. STILL A TRICKY FORECAST THE LOW
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING SETTLING SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS
OVERNIGHT THEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE COLORADO PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

TALKED WITH LOCAL EXTENSION SERVICE IN THE CORTEZ REGION AND
APPEARS MANY FRUIT TREES ARE IN THE FULL BLOOM IN PROTECTED
CANYONS. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO THIS AREA FOR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH SUNSET.
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BRING BOTH A THREAT OF TURBULENCE BUT ALSO
PASSING SHOWERS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF A KCAG TO KEEO TO KMTJ LINE WITH IMPACTS MORE
LIKELY AT KASE AND KEGE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SCATTERED
NATURE. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE PULLING MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO EASTERN UTAH. THIS WILL KEEP OBSCURATION OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...15





000
FXUS65 KGJT 151601
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1001 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

WATER VAPOR APPEARS TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROP FOLD SWINGING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO THE YAMPA VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPPED THE POPS AND WILL BE WATCHING WEB CAMS
FOR IMPACTS. CURRENTLY ROADS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE
SNOWFALL WITHOUT MUCH COVERAGE. STILL A TRICKY FORECAST THE LOW
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING SETTLING SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS
OVERNIGHT THEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE COLORADO PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

TALKED WITH LOCAL EXTENSION SERVICE IN THE CORTEZ REGION AND
APPEARS MANY FRUIT TREES ARE IN THE FULL BLOOM IN PROTECTED
CANYONS. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO THIS AREA FOR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED -SHSN WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT BRIEF -SHSN WILL OCCUR.

FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR A LINE SOUTH OF KVEL-
KGUC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 151601
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1001 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

WATER VAPOR APPEARS TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROP FOLD SWINGING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
THIS IS BEGINNING TO RELEASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS INTO THE YAMPA VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPPED THE POPS AND WILL BE WATCHING WEB CAMS
FOR IMPACTS. CURRENTLY ROADS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE
SNOWFALL WITHOUT MUCH COVERAGE. STILL A TRICKY FORECAST THE LOW
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING SETTLING SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS
OVERNIGHT THEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE COLORADO PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

TALKED WITH LOCAL EXTENSION SERVICE IN THE CORTEZ REGION AND
APPEARS MANY FRUIT TREES ARE IN THE FULL BLOOM IN PROTECTED
CANYONS. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO THIS AREA FOR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED -SHSN WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT BRIEF -SHSN WILL OCCUR.

FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR A LINE SOUTH OF KVEL-
KGUC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011-021.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 151142
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED -SHSN WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT BRIEF -SHSN WILL OCCUR.

FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR A LINE SOUTH OF KVEL-
KGUC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 151142
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED -SHSN WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT BRIEF -SHSN WILL OCCUR.

FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR A LINE SOUTH OF KVEL-
KGUC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 151142
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED -SHSN WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT BRIEF -SHSN WILL OCCUR.

FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR A LINE SOUTH OF KVEL-
KGUC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF





000
FXUS65 KGJT 151142
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED -SHSN WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT BRIEF -SHSN WILL OCCUR.

FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR A LINE SOUTH OF KVEL-
KGUC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF




000
FXUS65 KGJT 151027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED KGJT AND IS RUNNING ALONG A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL SOON BE REACHING KMTJ...KTEX...AND
KRIL SHORTLY. GUSTY 25-35 KTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BECOMING ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT





000
FXUS65 KGJT 151027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED KGJT AND IS RUNNING ALONG A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL SOON BE REACHING KMTJ...KTEX...AND
KRIL SHORTLY. GUSTY 25-35 KTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BECOMING ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...TGJT




000
FXUS65 KGJT 150853
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
253 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

ALLOWED HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. WEATHER
STATIONS ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN COLORADO ARE STILL REPORTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BUT THE WORST IS OVER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE REACHED ABOVE 15% IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SURFACE FROM OUTFLOW OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS UTAH
EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE PUSHING IN OUR EASTERN UTAH ZONES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING. STRONG SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH 3 AM REMAIN ON TRACK.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED ATTM. FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL ADD TO GUST POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50 TO 59 MPH RANGE
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO OUR EAST CENTRAL UTAH ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEVADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY CROSSED THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH BY 00Z...THEN CROSS INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ZONES WITH
MANY REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...REMAINING GUSTY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT.
GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

SOME CUMULUS BLOWUPS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE ALTHOUGH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT AS OF YET. SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN MORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER QUICKLY WITH HIGHER VALLEYS STARTING TO SEE A THREAT OF
SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WEAKEN THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.

WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW 25-30 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE SIDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC/GEM WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY TRENDS WARMER DURING THIS
TIME...MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY DUE TO
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BUT LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE SAN
JUANS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND RESULTING WEAKER FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND YIELD TO A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED KGJT AND IS RUNNING ALONG A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL SOON BE REACHING KMTJ...KTEX...AND
KRIL SHORTLY. GUSTY 25-35 KTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BECOMING ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHEASTERN UTAH LATER THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ002-003-
     006>008-011-020-021.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-
     006.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ023-025-
     028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-
     024-027-029.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...CK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 150853
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
253 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

ALLOWED HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. WEATHER
STATIONS ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN COLORADO ARE STILL REPORTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BUT THE WORST IS OVER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE REACHED ABOVE 15% IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SURFACE FROM OUTFLOW OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS UTAH
EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE PUSHING IN OUR EASTERN UTAH ZONES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING. STRONG SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH 3 AM REMAIN ON TRACK.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED ATTM. FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL ADD TO GUST POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50 TO 59 MPH RANGE
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO OUR EAST CENTRAL UTAH ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEVADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY CROSSED THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH BY 00Z...THEN CROSS INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ZONES WITH
MANY REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...REMAINING GUSTY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT.
GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

SOME CUMULUS BLOWUPS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE ALTHOUGH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT AS OF YET. SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN MORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER QUICKLY WITH HIGHER VALLEYS STARTING TO SEE A THREAT OF
SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WEAKEN THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.

WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW 25-30 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE SIDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC/GEM WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY TRENDS WARMER DURING THIS
TIME...MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY DUE TO
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BUT LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE SAN
JUANS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND RESULTING WEAKER FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND YIELD TO A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED KGJT AND IS RUNNING ALONG A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL SOON BE REACHING KMTJ...KTEX...AND
KRIL SHORTLY. GUSTY 25-35 KTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BECOMING ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHEASTERN UTAH LATER THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ002-003-
     006>008-011-020-021.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-
     006.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ023-025-
     028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-
     024-027-029.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...CK





000
FXUS65 KGJT 150853
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
253 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

ALLOWED HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. WEATHER
STATIONS ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN COLORADO ARE STILL REPORTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BUT THE WORST IS OVER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE REACHED ABOVE 15% IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SURFACE FROM OUTFLOW OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS UTAH
EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE PUSHING IN OUR EASTERN UTAH ZONES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING. STRONG SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH 3 AM REMAIN ON TRACK.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED ATTM. FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL ADD TO GUST POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50 TO 59 MPH RANGE
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO OUR EAST CENTRAL UTAH ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEVADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY CROSSED THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH BY 00Z...THEN CROSS INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ZONES WITH
MANY REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...REMAINING GUSTY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT.
GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

SOME CUMULUS BLOWUPS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE ALTHOUGH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT AS OF YET. SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN MORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER QUICKLY WITH HIGHER VALLEYS STARTING TO SEE A THREAT OF
SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WEAKEN THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.

WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW 25-30 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE SIDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC/GEM WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY TRENDS WARMER DURING THIS
TIME...MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY DUE TO
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BUT LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE SAN
JUANS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND RESULTING WEAKER FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND YIELD TO A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED KGJT AND IS RUNNING ALONG A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL SOON BE REACHING KMTJ...KTEX...AND
KRIL SHORTLY. GUSTY 25-35 KTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BECOMING ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHEASTERN UTAH LATER THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ002-003-
     006>008-011-020-021.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-
     006.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ023-025-
     028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-
     024-027-029.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...CK




000
FXUS65 KGJT 150853
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
253 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

ALLOWED HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. WEATHER
STATIONS ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN COLORADO ARE STILL REPORTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BUT THE WORST IS OVER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE REACHED ABOVE 15% IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SURFACE FROM OUTFLOW OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS UTAH
EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE PUSHING IN OUR EASTERN UTAH ZONES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING. STRONG SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH 3 AM REMAIN ON TRACK.
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND NO ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED ATTM. FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL ADD TO GUST POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PEAK GUSTS SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE 50 TO 59 MPH RANGE
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO OUR EAST CENTRAL UTAH ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEVADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY CROSSED THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF UTAH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH BY 00Z...THEN CROSS INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ZONES WITH
MANY REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...REMAINING GUSTY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT.
GOING WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

SOME CUMULUS BLOWUPS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE ALTHOUGH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT AS OF YET. SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN MORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER QUICKLY WITH HIGHER VALLEYS STARTING TO SEE A THREAT OF
SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WEAKEN THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER TOMORROW BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.

WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MAX
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW 25-30 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE SIDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC/GEM WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY TRENDS WARMER DURING THIS
TIME...MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY DUE TO
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BUT LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY. MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH SUCH AS THE SAN
JUANS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND RESULTING WEAKER FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND YIELD TO A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED KGJT AND IS RUNNING ALONG A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AXIS WHICH WILL SOON BE REACHING KMTJ...KTEX...AND
KRIL SHORTLY. GUSTY 25-35 KTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS FRONT PASSES AND
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BECOMING ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHEASTERN UTAH LATER THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ002-003-
     006>008-011-020-021.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COZ001-
     006.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ023-025-
     028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR UTZ022-
     024-027-029.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...CK





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